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Is the Tablet Market In Outright Collapse? Data Suggests Yes

Posted by timothy on from the then-give-me-a-cheap-nexus-9 dept.

Nerval's Lobster writes Is the tablet market rapidly collapsing? Mobile-analytics firm Flurry doesn't come to quite that stark a conclusion, but things aren't looking too good for touch-screens that don't qualify as "phablets." According to Flurry's numbers, full-sized tablets accounted for only 11 percent of new devices in 2014, a decline from 2013, when that form-factor totaled 17 percent of the new-device market; small tablets experienced a smaller decline, falling from 12 percent to 11 percent of new devices between 2013 and 2014. (Meanwhile, phablets expanded from 4 percent of new devices in 2013 to 13 percent this year.) Boy Genius Report, for its part, looked at those numbers and decided that the tablet market is doomed: "Consumers happy with compact smartphones are not switching to larger iPhones for now, but former tablet buyers are." That's not to say people will stop using tablets, but the onetime theory that they would one day cannibalize all PCs looks increasingly nebulous.

31 of 328 comments (clear)

  1. Tablet? by NotQuiteReal · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Oh, you mean my personal Netflix gadget.

    I use it (google nexus 7) because the battery lasts a long time, it is portable, and it is specifically NOT my phone.

    --
    This issue is a bit more complicated than you think.
    1. Re:Tablet? by Isaac-1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So what the hell are Phablets? Do we really need this new term that will be out of date in 6 months?

    2. Re:Tablet? by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It's all about use cases. My wife uses her iPad for the same reasons you do, but she rarely bothers with a full-blown PC. For her, the iPad is great for road trips, small vacations, etc.

      On my part, I rarely bother with a tablet; I have/use CG applications that a tablet simply could not keep up with, if anything were even written for them in that vein. Plus, I prefer the larger screens, bulkiness be damned.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    3. Re:Tablet? by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So what the hell are Phablets? Do we really need this new term that will be out of date in 6 months?

      A phablet is a mythical tablet where they re-enable the disabled phone circuitry that's present in the chips.

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    4. Re:Tablet? by sycodon · · Score: 5, Informative

      Also, tablets have a longer lifespan than your average smartphone. The tablet market could probably be called Mature now. Explosive growth is over, at least in the original Western Markets. You are looking at incremental growth and replacements.

      Mobil phones, on the other hand, are still P.O.S. devices that start breaking within a year or are obsoleted by he never ending OS updates, carrier technology, etc.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    5. Re:Tablet? by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Also, tablets have a longer lifespan than your average smartphone. The tablet market could probably be called Mature now. Explosive growth is over, at least in the original Western Markets. You are looking at incremental growth and replacements.

      I would imagine that you are correct. While they are technically computers I classify tablets as data display devices. You use them to display web pages, read ebooks, and pay bills with online banking. You really don't use them for general purpose computers.

      While they have different processor speeds, screen sizes and run different OS, basically they all do the same thing. And its hard to improve on what they do. Once you find one that you are happy with, it should serve for years doing its job.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    6. Re:Tablet? by RingDev · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I have a (don't judge me!) Surface Pro 2. After my last PC got struck by lightning almost 9 months ago, I haven't bothered building a new one.

      The Surface Pro has (just) enough processing power to handle most of what I need it to do. All my standard office stuff (word, excel, visio) and as long as I'm not doing anything too crazy, it handles my personal dev projects (VS2013 and some assorted web and .Net apps) including debugging (although I'm not running a local database on it for development).

      Yeah, it can do Netflix, hulu, and prime, but it also runs an Android emulator (hurray for Andyroid!) fairly well for apps I need that aren't available on Windows and for my own cross platform development testing.

      It's not a gaming rig though. I'm not going to jump in a 40-person WoW raid with the graphics cranked up, nor am I going to jump into a FPS and count on head shots. I still need an actual rig for that fun.

      But as far as having a super handy tablet that I can effectively doc to have a solid work machine (I'm in management now, so I don't need to compile that million lines of code assembly), it does quite well.

      As for upgrading, I got a great deal on the Surface Pro 2 as the Pro 3s had been on the market and the 2s were getting cleared out. If/When the Pro 4s come out, I might make the jump, but for now, I'm good.

      -Rick

      --
      "Most people in the U.S. wouldn't know they live in a tyrannical state if it walked up and grabbed their junk." - MyFirs
    7. Re:Tablet? by Noah+Haders · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The summary and comments so far have been comparing tablets to phones. But the proper comparison is between tablets and laptops.

      ANECDOTE ALERT

      I'm a big believer that tablets will replace laptops. My ipad used to be for games, light browsing, etc. But two things happened that changed everything:
      * I got a really high quality keyboard case that comes very close to replicating the look and feel of a laptop (search for ClamCase if you care to)
      * my work switched to office 365, which means all of the outlook, word, excel, CRM, and sharepoint is available online and through ipad apps.

      Now my tablet has probably replaced 75% of my home computer needs, and 100% of travel needs - I leave my work laptop at home and only take the tablet. It's super cool. It does many things that my home/work laptops do not:
      * it is small and light, yet the ipad screen is way huge compared to netbook screens.
      * cell connection means you always have email the instant you open it, and any website is available any where. once you get used to this it is jarring to back to a laptop where you're scrounging for internet access (or have a Sting that glows when in the presence of unsecured wifi).
      * instant wake from sleep. Another thing where once you get used to that it's hard to go back to the laptop.
      * it lasts all day. literally, 10 hrs +. better than my crappy work win7 that burns like a thousand suns.
      * road warriors will identify with this one: the charger is small and light (not a brick)

      Like I said, anecdote alert. But I think that aside from computer professionals, many people can be more than suited by an ipad + tablet case. The number of edge cases where a laptop works but an ipad doesn't work keeps on shrinking.

      Rumor mill says Apple will be updating the MacBook air to be a tablet/laptop hybrid, possibly like the set up I described. That would be cool!

    8. Re:Tablet? by Guspaz · · Score: 3, Funny

      It's not a satchel, it's European.

    9. Re:Tablet? by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Why would anyone care if stupid people laugh at them?

      Because those stupid people in a hospital are nurses and doctors. Give them an opportunity to look down on you as an I.T. professional and you will never hear the end of it. As an I.T. contractor, I worked in a wide variety of companies with different cultures. A hospital is perhaps the most hostile work enviornment. Either you fall in line with the pecking order or the door hits your ass on the way out.

    10. Re:Tablet? by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I applied for a tech job at a law firm this past summer. The recruiter submitted my resume along with a half-dozen other resumes. The hiring manager rejected them all out of hand for lacking tenure (i.e., at least three years in the last three positions). The recruiter had to explain to the hiring manager that practically no one has three years in the last three positions since the Great Recession, as everyone is doing short-term contract and getting whatever jobs they can find. Last I heard, the position was still open.

    11. Re:Tablet? by Amtrak · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Like I said, anecdote alert. But I think that aside from computer professionals, many people can be more than suited by an ipad + tablet case. The number of edge cases where a laptop works but an ipad doesn't work keeps on shrinking. Rumor mill says Apple will be updating the MacBook air to be a tablet/laptop hybrid, possibly like the set up I described. That would be cool!

      I know this is Slashdot so this is a little against the group think but isn't what you described exactly what Microsoft is trying to do with the surface? They made 2 versions, one that is stripped down with great battery life that runs office and a web browser. Then another one that is for professionals that is a full fledged ultra book.

      I have used a surface pro 2 and it was a pretty good laptop for data viewing, though I still like a real laptop for coding work. I can see it being the only computing device someone like my wife would ever need.

      I think in the long run the tablet market will be squeezed out by phones taking away the bottom and laptops taking away the top. Because lets be honest an iPhone 6+ is a great personal Netflix viewer and a Surface Pro or Convertible Mac Book Air would be better than a tablet with a keyboard case.

  2. Not replacing PCs after all by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So will the UI makers retreat on their strategy of forcing PCs to use touch-inspired interfaces? We can only hope.

    1. Re:Not replacing PCs after all by CohibaVancouver · · Score: 3, Interesting

      So will the UI makers retreat on their strategy of forcing PCs to use touch-inspired interfaces? We can only hope.

      In my case I can certainly hope *not*.

      At home and at work my Surface Pro works perfectly as a day-to-day PC with an external screen, keyboard, mouse and wired network connectivity.

      On the bus, an airplane or wherever it works great as a touch tablet. It's the only gadget I carry and need (other than my little iPhone 4s).

    2. Re:Not replacing PCs after all by Amouth · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Agree, the surface pro (especially the 3) are wonderful devices. Use it at work with a docking station and end up with 3 usable monitors (2x external + device). and when your on the road it just works great. one of the few devices that i can actually use on a plane.

      I will say also for such a thin keyboard which is used as a cover, the keys have more travel than expected and works quite well providing plenty of tactile feedback.

      --
      '...if only "Jumping to a Conclusion" was an event in the Olympics.'
  3. Also.. by SirGeek · · Score: 3, Informative

    I'm not replacing my tablet every 2 - 3 years. When it comes to my phone ? Probably every 2 yearsish I'll replace it.

    --
    UPS Sucks
    1. Re:Also.. by CohibaVancouver · · Score: 3, Informative

      What is wrong with a 4 year old smartphone that still works?

      I have a 3+ year old iPhone 4s running iOS 7.1. It still works well enough, but it's starting to show its age. More and more apps are crashy, the touchscreen is less responsive & laggy and functions in the camera don't work very well anymore. In my region its only 3G and the battery life isn't too good. I could reset it back to out-of-box, but then Apple would try to update it to iOS 8, which I don't want.

    2. Re:Also.. by Noah+Haders · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I suspect it's bad math. People don't internalize the fact that ipads and iphones cost the same price ($500-$800), and the difference is many people sign a binding contract to pay for their phones over time. so it seems cheap to update your phone (only $200!), while expensive to update your tablet.

  4. Market Saturation? by tysonedwards · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Couldn't it also be that Tablets are a question of reaching market saturation, and that they fall more into the PC life cycle rather than the Cell Phone life cycle of being replaced yearly? From my personal experience, everywhere I go, I see people with tablets that are a year or two old because they are "good enough", lack compelling reasons to upgrade and also are typically appear significantly more expensive than their cell phone counterparts as they are typically sold unsubsidized.

    --
    Thirty four characters live here.
    1. Re:Market Saturation? by jellomizer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If I were to spend $525 for a tablet, I would keep it for 4 years. vs. Paying $200 every year and always staying a bit out of date.

      I can tolerate being out of date for a year, however I do like to reward my sacrifice with something top of the line afterwards. When I upgrade I like a noticable difference.

       

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  5. Phone costs by rossdee · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The cost of a large smartphone is hidden by the contract.
    With a tablet you pay full price up front.

    Most of the time I am using my phone for reading, or for playing music. The Galaxy Note3 works well for that, and its more portable than my Kindle fire HDX 8.9

    1. Re:Phone costs by spire3661 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Anyone who is paying attention can get a phone without subsidizing it with the carrier. I bought my Moto G outright ($200) and then took it to T-mobile to hook up.

      --
      Good-bye
  6. But we're in the post-PC era!! by NotDrWho · · Score: 3, Funny

    Wired Magazine keeps saying so!

    --
    SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
  7. Ugh by tom229 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    These marketing types are all chicken little's. Any engineer/technician could have told you this was going to happen. Tablets are not the new laptops. They are consumption devices used for a specific purpose. Everyone who wanted a tablet, now has one, so expect sales to slow. Expect content creators to keep buying laptops and desktops. And expect anyone with half a brain to keep rejecting touch unified interfaces, the "cloud", and software as a service.

    --
    If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
  8. I must admit I did this... by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I was carrying my iPad Mini around with me to meetings and such - in addition to carrying my little phone. The Mini is about the perfect size gadget... but I was carrying two devices everywhere, one of which won't fit in many pockets. So... I decided to try using an iPhone 6+ as my one carry-around. It's definitely a compromise for some uses, but it's definitely good enough to replace the iPad for note taking in meetings, ssh'ing into a server in a pinch, or looking up info on the web when I'm away from my desk. I expect, going forward, I'll only have two devices - a biggish phone plus a light 12"-13" laptop (e.g. MacBook Air).

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  9. Oh look, percentages! by Graymalkin · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In a drive to be clickbait some company has decided to lie or at least massage the truth with abstract numbers. Market share has never ever and never will be a truly useful metric for the health of some market.

    Say i define a market as "portable computing devices without physical keyboards". The would cover smart phones and slate tablets. In year 1 there's a million smart phones sold and a million tablets sold. Each product segment has 50% market share. In year 2 thanks to just basic increases in demand and new features more devices are sold. This year four million phones are sold and two million tablets. Now the market share of tablets has dropped to 33% despite increasing unit sales by 100% from the previous year. Different products have different growth rates. Comparing two categories directly is rarely useful.

    As it stands the iPad still dominates the tablet market in terms of units sold even though its share of just the tablet market has decreased. This is due to expansion of the tablet market in the low end.

    Tablets were never going to replace all PCs. Anyone suggesting they would or complaining that they haven't is a fool. Tablets have replaced some PC sales but have also simply added to the computing landscape. The PCs they replaced were the ones doing the same job as the tablets: reading, basic web stuff, and light gaming. Tablets just do that job in a more portable fashion.

    Tablets in a "free fall" is just a ludicrous clickbait statement. Tablets are a form factor that was impractical for many years and are meeting that pent up demand. They're not going to replace all PCs nor will they get as ubiquitous as smart phones.

    --
    I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
  10. Re:Tablets age well by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Lesson learned: don't build a good product that is going to work well for a long time.

    Additional lesson learned: If you accidentally build an overly reliable product, as Apple did with the original iPad, you can still sabotage it by changing connectors, making it ineligible for OS upgrades, requiring new apps to include bulky "retina" images that aren't even used yet fill up very limited flash and RAM, and (starting Jan 1st) no longer allowing compatible apps to be submitted to the Apple App Store. There are many ways to retroactively screw your customers.

  11. Re:Price difference over two years by meta-monkey · · Score: 4, Informative

    It ain't exactly "subsidized." You still pay for the entire thing.

    I was off-contract with AT&T for a year with my old phone and I just opted for a Nexus 6. I thought about just buying it outright at $650, but if I signed a contract with AT&T for 2 years, I'd get the phone for only $250. Well...I've had good service with AT&T and when I tried T-Mobile it was impossible for me to make calls at home or work. No coverage. So okay, I'm not jumping ship from AT&T any time soon, anyway. The AT&T version only has 2 extra, easily uninstallable apps and is completely rootable and unlockable as any other Nexus, so vendor bloatware not a problem.

    So I buy my $250 phone. At checkout, they tell me there's a $40 "upgrade fee" that will appear on my next bill. Huh. Okay...still $290 is better than $650... I get my phone activate it, love it. A few days later I get a text from AT&T. Oh by the way...when you were off contract we were giving you a $15/month discount. But now that you're on contract, you no longer qualify for that. So your bill will go up by $15/month.

    Wait, so...let me get out my abacus here...$15/month...times 24 months...is $360...plus the $40 upgrade fee...plus the $250 out of pocket for the phone...damn it $650!

    And that's how they getcha. They always getcha...

    --
    We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
  12. Jeezus, percentage share cannot indicate a collaps by shilly · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Nerval apparently doesn't understand the difference between relative and absolute, or they'd know it's possible to shrink as a percentage while growing in absolute terms. This isn't what's happening here, but iPad sales are certainly not collapsing, and iPads are really quite an important component of the market
      http://www.statista.com/statis...

  13. Flurry's numbers are bogus by saccade.com · · Score: 4, Interesting

    A comment on the linked story notes Flurry is only counting cellular activations. This ignores the majority of tablets that are WiFi only

  14. lies, damned lies and statistics by Tom · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Look, some genius "analyst" has figured out that people don't buy ten tablets per person. Next up: The food market collapses because people do not increase their daily food amount constantly.

    This fixation on "growth" as if by magic everything would grow indefinitely is the primary evil in our world today. I've seen perfectly healthy companies with good revenue and solid profits being closed because they're not growing to the amount the corporate owners wish for.

    --
    Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org