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Science By Democracy Doesn't Work

StartsWithABang writes The US Senate just voted on whether climate change is a hoax, knowing full well that debates or votes don't change what is or isn't scientifically true or valid. Nevertheless, debates have always been a thing in science, and they do have their place: in raising what points would be needed to validate, robustly confirm or refute competing explanations, theories or ideas. The greatest scientific debate in all of history — along with its conclusions — illustrates exactly this.

497 comments

  1. science by clickbait doesn't work either by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    moreso if it's already too hard to make the website readable.

    1. Re: science by clickbait doesn't work either by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Clickbait comes to my mind too. It is just a rider on the bill for political posturing. Headline makes it out to be something it's not.

      Reminds me of the time a state tried to vote to redefine PI though.

    2. Re: science by clickbait doesn't work either by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They were going to vote on squaring the circle, and the proposed legislation had inaccurate numbers for Pi (3.2).

    3. Re:science by clickbait doesn't work either by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 5, Informative

      The US Senate just voted on whether climate change is a hoax

      Especially since (1) he doesn't tell us the result of the vote, and (2) he links back to yesterday's article on slashdot that covered the same thing, and to the same article on his web site as yesterday. Nothing - nothing - whatsoever to see here.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    4. Re:science by clickbait doesn't work either by blue+trane · · Score: 1

      I think the point is that all the ppl today saying "nothing to see here" have the same mindset as Shapley about distant galaxies: If there are other galaxies like our Milky Way, that would contradict everything we know today, reasoned astronomers a century ago. So there must not be distant galaxies. QED. Nothing to see here!

      Aristarchus of Samos ran into much the same prejudice. If Aristarchus's heliocentric theory of the solar system is correct, reasoned the Greeks, we should observe parallax motion of the stars. We don't observe parallax motion of the stars. Therefore, the earth does not move around the sun. Nothing to see here! Except their instruments weren't sensitive enough to measure the parallax motion, because the stars were so much farther away than they could imagine.

      In the same way today we see huge bursts of energy that astronmers just can't stomach, so they invent theories about beaming and so forth. Nothing to see here! Energy is still scarce! We can still use scarcity as an excuse to make poor people suffer, because the stars say so.

    5. Re:science by clickbait doesn't work either by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Linking to the same article on his site 2 days in a row, over the same topic, without actually adding anything new in the second summary, is pure clickbait. The second story added absolutely nothing over and above the first.

      So the second article can accurately be classified as nothing to see here (unless this is your first visit to the site, but it still doesn't take away from the fact that he failed to include that the clock was advanced by 2 minutes.

      Also, that wasn't the greatest debate in science. The Scopes Monkey Trial easily beat it.

      We're still having schools trying to ban the teaching of evolution almost 100 years later, politicians are still involved in the debate up to their necks, and the religion vs. science debate that has gone on for centuries still continues, but this was ultimately a victory of science.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  2. Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Interesting

    Isn't that called "consensus"? Isn't that what's being pushed by the "Global Climate Change" (new name this week!) crowd as impetus for ending discussion and declaring the science "done"?

    1. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Spazmania · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, it's called consensus and no, it isn't science. Not when politicians do it. Not when scientists do it.

      --
      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
    2. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, that isn't how science works. But it is how those with a vested interest in continuing to exploit fossil fuels which they have invested in, or that enables their SUV and wasteful lifestyle, portray the process of science, however!

    3. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Consensus isn't science, but it's a method of determining which of the competing scientific theories should be used as a basis of policy. It may not be a good method, but other methods are worse.

    4. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Spazmania · · Score: 0

      None. When science hasn't fully resolved a question based on the evidence, none of the competing theories should be used as a basis for public policy.

      --
      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
    5. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by ganjadude · · Score: 2

      its called political posturing. Instead of actually doing things congress should be doing, like working down the debt, they sit here with a yes or no vote on whether they believe in X. I see a huge problem with it because it does absolutely nothing other than give ammo to congresscritters to say "see, he voted against it look at that idiot!!"

      --
      have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
    6. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or, it how those with vested interested in Carbon trading schemes, "green" tech, and people who just hate the idea of someone who showers everyday, uses a heater and AC, and drives, make sure their agendas and interests are made a priority.

    7. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      Isn't that called "consensus"? Isn't that what's being pushed by the "Global Climate Change" (new name this week!) crowd as impetus for ending discussion and declaring the science "done"?

      I realize you are just grinding a hatchet here; but 'scientific consensus' differs from 'democracy' in the minor detail that 'experiments' and 'data' are involved.

      In the short to medium term it can (and has) been the case that scientific consensus is following some mixture of confusion and groupthink into error(or, as some suspect the more theoretical aspects of physics of doing, into an unverifiable morass of elegant but meaningless mathematics); long term, though, it's hard to both ignore the world and generate useful results.

    8. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 5, Insightful

      How does one determine when science has "fully resolved" a question ? Also, it's impossible to not have a policy while we wait. Right now, our policy is to keep producing CO2 at about the same rate. What exactly should we base that policy on, if not for our current best scientific understanding ?

    9. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      Yes, it's called consensus and no, it isn't science. Not when politicians do it. Not when scientists do it.

      That's the failing of the submitter. Nobody ever said this vote was part of the science, so there is no reason argue it isn't. But alas, many idiots will anyhow.

    10. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by arpad1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      How does one determine when science has "fully resolved" a question? When the hypothesis has experimental/observational verification. Policy based on any other standard, like a consensus of dubious objectivity, is a crap shoot.

      --
      Minutus cantorum, minutus balorum, minutus carborata descendum pantorum.
    11. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Roodvlees · · Score: 3, Informative

      In science nothing ever gets 'fully resolved'. It's not religion where babies burn in hell, then go to limbo to get more believers then they go to heaven to get even more believers. It's driven by understanding and improving that understanding.

      The point of "this is perfect and certainly true" does not exist.

      --
      Thank you, Bradley Manning, Edward Snowden and so many others, for courageously defending humanity, my freedom and more!
    12. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 1

      How does one determine when the hypothesis has experimental/observational verification ?

    13. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Feyshtey · · Score: 1

      Ok, the observable evidence over the past decade suggests that at the least the impact of the prevailing theory is highly overstated, and potentially flat out wrong.

      Now what?

      --
      "But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it,..." - Nancy Pelosi
    14. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 3, Informative

      The data from the last decade fits the rising trend perfectly.

      https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

    15. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It never ceases to amaze me that peopel make the argument that somehow the profits to be made from promoting a "global warming agenda" eclipse the profits and therefore dominate the national interests of the fossil fuel industry. It's so ludicrous that nobody of sound mind should should be saying it, yet there it is for all of the Glenn Beck crowd to hear.

    16. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      The problem there is 'policy' not 'science'.

      I like the IETF model: "We reject kings, presidents, and voting. We believe in rough consensus and running code".

      Oh, but nothing large-scale and important could ever be accomplished without Democracy ...

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    17. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      None. When science hasn't fully resolved a question based on the evidence, none of the competing theories should be used as a basis for public policy.

      Very little is ever fully resolved.

      Plus we already set public policy based upon religion, which is never ever resolved, and never will be.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    18. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      None. When science hasn't fully resolved a question based on the evidence, none of the competing theories should be used as a basis for public policy.

      Newtonian physics have been disproven, yet it has been used as a basis for laws regarding houses, roads and bridges.
      Should those regulations be revoked?

    19. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      Ok, the observable evidence over the past decade suggests that at the least the impact of the prevailing theory is highly overstated, and potentially flat out wrong. Now what?

      First off, you need to accept that you have bad data.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    20. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Speaking of political posturing, that's precisely what the "OMG, the debt is skyrocketing!" crowd is doing. As most good economists will tell you, it's not about the absolute value of the debt, it's about the debt in relation to the GNP, or some other measure of economic health -- which by most standards, means we're doing just fine.

    21. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You can say that all you want, and even convince other naive mental lightweights like yourself. You can not change reality by denying it though, no matter how hard you try.

      Try looking at the data a few more times. If you still fail to understand it, it would be best if you just removed your ignorant opinions from where other people might read them and fall for your charlatanry.

    22. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Sique · · Score: 1

      That's akin to say that until we have all the results from all supporting structures in a crumbling building, we shouldn't start to evacuate.

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*
    23. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by kjhambrick · · Score: 1

      Consensus isn't science, but it's a method of determining which of the competing scientific theories should be used as a basis of policy. It may not be a good method, but other methods are worse.

      Hmmmm ...

      And how is 'Concensus' among the Scientists any different than a Vote among the members of the Legislature ?

      Just wondering ...

      -- kjh

    24. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Kierthos · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You're right. We should use quantum mechanics instead as a basis for laws regarding houses, roads and bridges, because that's much more applicable to houses, roads, and bridges than Newtonian physics.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
    25. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Flavianoep · · Score: 1

      Isn't that called "consensus"? Isn't that what's being pushed by the "Global Climate Change" (new name this week!) crowd as impetus for ending discussion and declaring the science "done"?

      It should be named anthropogenically accelerated global climate change, as there is no question whether the climate is changing---one cannot expect that the actual climate will last forever, it has changed before and will change again. The question is whether climate change is (a) global, (b) faster than it would be natural, and therefore (c) caused by the man.

      --
      Linux is for people who don't mind RTFM.
    26. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by DarkOx · · Score: 2

      We should base policy on what the majority of 'the people' (read voters without regard for what internationally other people want) wish to do, after they have been made aware of the risk a large number of scientists believe to exist.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    27. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How does one determine when science has "fully resolved" a question ? Also, it's impossible to not have a policy while we wait. Right now, our policy is to keep producing CO2 at about the same rate. What exactly should we base that policy on, if not for our current best scientific understanding ?

      Given the state of particle physics, we obviously have not "fully resolved" the question of whether we are constrained by only 4 dimensions (3 + time) or whether there could be as many as a dozen dimensions, therefore we should immediately stop building anything at all because it may contain dimensions which we cannot accurately/safely measure - and we shouldn't be building cars, houses, skyscrapers, bridges, etc, if we can't determine their safety. Heck, several tall buildings have already collapsed in NYC, two were even designed to withstand airplane impacts - and didn't - we obviously cannot trust the consensus on physics then.

    28. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The fact that the Greens have not been successful in leveraging government policy to enrich themselves does not mean that they are not trying.

      Let's look at the overall AGW camp's political positions:

      1. Rationing/Restrictions/Regulations.
      2. Prohibitions.
      3. Taxes/Wealth redistribution.
      4. "Investment" in green technologies which amounts to rewarding political donors.

      Notice how that is exactly the same as the Radical Leftists agenda? The Left, for decades has conducted themselves in the same manner as the Luddites. They have destroyed, impeded, blocked new technology all in the name of AGW.

      As far as the Science goes, can anyone name any Scientific discipline that has been built on models that have been shown by empirical evidence to be wrong?

    29. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The buildings DID withstand the impacts. They did not withstand the ensuing fires.

    30. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by ganjadude · · Score: 1

      we are not doing fine if we are talking about raising taxes on anyone.

      --
      have you seen my sig? there are many others like it but none that are the same
    31. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 1

      Have voters been made aware of this ? I'm pretty sure that the average voter, who does not care for scientific journals and reports, has a poor idea of the current scientific facts and theories. And that applies to voters on both sides of the debate.

    32. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I eagerly await the vote on whether God is a hoax or not - after all, while there is a consensus in certain circles as to God's existence, that is in no way "proof" of the existence of a supernatural being.

      Yes, yes, one can bring out the Bible and all that, but that's of questionable origin/authorship, and is not in any way "proof" of anything, therefore it should follow that if all the current/historical measurements in the past say 100 years of CO2 levels and temperature are in no way proof of global warming, a book from 2000 years ago cannot in any way be proof of the existence of a supernatural being... so both must then be judged 'hoaxes' by our politicians.

    33. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The data from the last decade fits the rising trend perfectly.

      ... after supposedly having been tinkered the crap outof (interpolating many test-stations from a handful of real ones causing data to get skewed, "recalculating" yesteryears results (from teststations that did not even have the same kind of equipment) to match the results of current equipment, trying to present differences laying within the fault-tolerance of the measuring equipment as relevant & indicative -- And no, I don't think I'm a climate denier. Its just that my suspicion gets arroused when reading stuff like that).

      Its a major problem with humans in general: when they know what the end result should be they subconsiously* start to interpret all test results to fit it. Thats why they invented the so-called "double blind" testing (which, alas, in this case would be a bit hard).

      *And yes, some people do that on purpose. Often when their job/income are at stake, or simply because they want to gain some prestige.

    34. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Right now, our policy is to keep producing CO2 at about the same rate.

      If by the same rate you mean 50% increase in 15 years, then yes, "about the same rate".

    35. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by johanw · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the rising trend does not seem to lead to the predicted disasters.

    36. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by pla · · Score: 1

      can anyone name any Scientific discipline that has been built on models that have been shown by empirical evidence to be wrong?

      Newtonian physics?

    37. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And it just happens to be a coincidence that sticking with the status quo is the recommended course of action for one of the competing theories? Deciding to do nothing is still a public policy and one that can only be justified if it's based on one particular interpretation of the evidence.

    38. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Kirth · · Score: 3, Informative

      None. When science hasn't fully resolved a question based on the evidence, none of the competing theories should be used as a basis for public policy.

      Bogus. Science is not about "fully resolving" but about "models that work". Yes you could back the "wrong" scientifc theory when making policy, but in most cases they will differ only in corner cases. And even better, you can choose a response that addresses the problem, no matter which theory is correct. Even if global warming today was mainly caused by volcanoes, would it make sense to pump out even more CO2?

      However, if there's a debate like there is in the US with climate change, with opinions 180 degrees the opposite, you can be sure that one side is only spouting complete bollocks and propaganda. Especially when you notice that one side has most of the scientists on its side, and the other mostly politicians.

      --
      "The more prohibitions there are, The poorer the people will be" -- Lao Tse
    39. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not what was said.

      What's being said is that the "green economy" isn't actually based on supply and demand.
      It's effectively a non-governmental taxation on guilt.

      In the real world. I buy a barrel of crude oil. I have a barrel of crude oil that I can store, refine, resell, etc, etc.
      In the "green" world. I buy a "carbon credit". I've got what? Some jackass nobody's assurance that I'm now NOT a bad person for buying and doing whatever with the aforementioned barrel of crude? Oh yes, and a slightly emptier wallet!

      Fuck that!

    40. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      its called political posturing. Instead of actually doing things congress should be doing, like working down the debt, they sit here with a yes or no vote on whether they believe in X. I see a huge problem with it because it does absolutely nothing other than give ammo to congresscritters to say "see, he voted against it look at that idiot!!"

      So it's like the 'debt ceiling' - every time we approach it, there's a lot of political arguing about it, but in the end it always gets raised because they can't afford not to, yet they call it a 'limit' - kinda like my CC limit, only with the caveat that while I may want/need it to be raised to keep spending, I don't actually get to vote on it or 'debate' how high it should be raised to if they approve it.

    41. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      None. When science hasn't fully resolved a question based on the evidence, none of the competing theories should be used as a basis for public policy.

      Now I understand the denial logic. Let say science is 90% confident that a comet is going to crash on the earth, we shouldn't do anything since the question is not fully resolved, right? That's just plain stupid, whether it's applied to a comet or climate change. Man made climate change is happening. Are we 100% confident? No, but close enough so that we should live accordingly. Again, is the science 100% settled? No. But while we continue research on the matter, there is no reason not to act.

    42. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by johanw · · Score: 1

      Those laws allow for such large inaccuracies (aka safety margins) that the inaccuracies of Newtonian physics are neglegible.

    43. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by johanw · · Score: 1

      Scientists are supposed to know anything about the subjects they vote on. Legislaters are not, and do not in practice.

    44. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You sir are correct. Its the pursuit of resolution that makes it Science. Just because Newton said there was Gravity didn't mean we stopped testing it and so it will
      be for the Climate. We will be in a forever state of testing the Climate. It will be a hot topic for eons to come because the data is constantly changing
      and dynamic.

    45. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      Maybe in the developing world. In the US I know CO2 emissions have dropped as natural gas has gotten cheaper, more nat gas power plants have been built, and more coal plants have been shut down.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    46. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One would enroll in a freshman science course.

    47. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I realize you are just grinding a hatchet here; but 'scientific consensus' differs from 'democracy' in the minor detail that 'experiments' and 'data' are involved.

      Because I'm sure EVERY scientist or wannabe scientist has gone in, looked at all the data produced in the last 50 years, done 5 years worth of experiments to verify the data and THEN weighed in.

      Again, I'm NOT against the idea of "leave the planet a cleaner place than the one our parents left us". And that includes carbon and CO2 production.
      But the noxious near-religious/political/profiteering overtones of the AGW movement, combined with the fact that there are exactly ZERO viable plans (but assloads of crazy, snake-oil ideas!) for TRULY mitigating/reversing the trend makes me want to scream, run away, and come back with a big fucking gun and start shooting people.

    48. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There aren't any competing theories, just competing hypothesis when it comes to climate science.

    49. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 0, Insightful

      Could someone please explain how giving more money to the kleptocrats in government is going to cool the planet? This sounds about as scientific as voodoo witch doctors.

    50. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 1

      after supposedly having been tinkered the crap out of

      Funny, because it's the exact same data people use to claim there has been a pause. Or do you have a source for better data ?

    51. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1, Insightful

      By creating hypothesis and then testing it, experimentally and verifying results, you know SCIENCE.

      AGW and the CO2 debate has just Hypothesis generation, and the models have failed at predicting anything. And yet, you have people running around crying "2014 was the hottest year on record", and while it is fun being "Chicken Little" isn't accurate at all, and crying "consensus" (popular opinion) etc.

      So far, all science has done is shown that CO2 is increasing, measured/verified.

      Not to mention all the other "theories" about how weather, especially hurricanes, would increase and cause more devastation, and the cries of "Global Warming" after Sandy, which does NOTHING but drive panic (emotion, not facts) to elicit government controls on human activity. After all, only government can solve the worlds problems (never mind that governments cause most of the worlds problems).

      Global warming isn't science. It is political fodder masquerading as science.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    52. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The future hasn't happened yet.

    53. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 1

      Nonsense. Our debt to GDP is over 100% and growing, and several economists opine that we are past the tipping point, meaning that any realistic scenario results in economic collapse. If interest rates were to return to historical averages, we would be paying 80% of revenues to service the debt.

    54. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 2

      Sounds good. May be a challenge to get all the Congress members to do that, though.

    55. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1, Insightful

      But I keep being told that AGW is "settled" and "proven" and such. Tell that to the people who don't believe (faith type) in AGW who are told basically that they are going to hell (blamed for AGW should it occur),and how the sinners need to sacrifice (go "green", pay carbon offsets etc) while the priests get to live in luxury (Al Gore and the 1000s of jets flying to AGW conferences).

      You see, if you frame it right, it does sound JUST LIKE RELIGION!

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    56. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 5, Insightful

      By creating hypothesis and then testing it, experimentally and verifying results, you know SCIENCE.

      That's what 95% of the climate scientists believe we have done. If that's not enough, please explain your exact criteria. WHO must do all the things you mention, and WHEN does the general public know they have been done correctly ?

    57. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The difference is that you can duplicate the tests, measurements and models, and that you are invited to come up with alternative explanations.

    58. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Why don't you look at the data for the past decade?

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

    59. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by itzly · · Score: 1

      Could someone please explain how giving more money to the kleptocrats in government is going to cool the planet?

      Nobody has claimed that, so no explanation is required.

    60. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Coren22 · · Score: 0

      That is just more wealth redistribution by the Demos to buy votes from the people they give the money to.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    61. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Speaking of political posturing, that's precisely what the "OMG, the debt is skyrocketing!" crowd is doing. As most good economists will tell you, it's not about the absolute value of the debt, it's about the debt in relation to the GNP, or some other measure of economic health -- which by most standards, means we're doing just fine.

      The federal unfunded liabilities are catastrophic for future taxpayers and economic growth. At usdebtclock.org, federal unfunded liabilities are estimated at near $127 trillion, which is roughly $1.1 million per taxpayer and nearly double 2012’s total world output.

      IOW, you're fucking moron.

    62. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by JimSadler · · Score: 1

      You have just justified the mystics point of view. It is the very nature of science that nothing is ever completely resolved. It means that nothing is ever really a fact as new knowledge often displaces old knowledge. That being the case science oriented people actually act on their beliefs. They consider the state of science to represent facts which is a form of denial. It somewhat puts religion and science on equal footings. Note that considering science as a belief system is only real from a long term view. Consider what were considered facts in 1900 and how many of those facts fell apart. But humans being what they are consider Texas and what those folks can do armed with the notion that religious or pseudo religious beliefs might carry the same weight as science and you end up with lunatics who want to teach religion in science classes. And our broken system tends to give them support. Since we do not have religion classes in public schools it sort of puts pressure on the idea of shifting religion into science classes. Along with that we have a problem in that science can amplify the worst aspects of human nature. For example primitive natives may bash each other over the head at times but only modern man would drop nuclear bombs killing millions or come up with ideas like creating new, deadly, bacteria to use in war.

    63. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by dave420 · · Score: 1

      And the answers are:

      a) Yes
      b) Yes
      c) Yes

      to a very acceptable level of accuracy.

    64. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by tbannist · · Score: 1

      You see, if you frame it right, it does sound JUST LIKE RELIGION!

      If you frame it right, everything sounds like religion.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    65. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      You do realize the policy will not be about reducing or even limiting CO2 emissions.

      The large producers of CO2 will keep churning away what it will do is stop the smaller producers by raising the bar they have to meet.

      Policy is like when corps get fines, take the EPA Company X gets caught illegally dumping waste they have to pay cleanup and then some fees to the EPA, in reality what they pay for this is probably far less than what it would cost them to do it properly, this scenario only takes into account they've been doing the same thing all along and only been caught the once meaning they could have dumped several hundred tons of waste and only gotten caught dumping a small percentage of that.

      There are no consequences just slaps on the wrist with a finger wave and a stern "Well don't do that again".

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    66. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by phantomfive · · Score: 2, Informative

      That's what 95% of the climate scientists believe we have done.

      I don't know why you think that. All climate scientists who are not in a coma (or on vacation in Aruba collecting temperature data) are aware that the models are wrong. The hypothesis is wrong and needs to be adjusted. And scientists aren't stupid, that is exactly what they are doing, thinking of different ways to adjust the hypothesis. But it takes time.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    67. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Let say science is 90% confident that a comet is going to crash on the earth

      How big is this comet? We already know Earth gets hit by comets frequently (meaning we're already 100% confident that a comet will crash on Earth). And of course, we're ignoring the unscientific exaggerations of comet impact likelihood and harm which would accompany this prediction.

      Man made climate change is happening. Are we 100% confident? No, but close enough so that we should live accordingly. Again, is the science 100% settled? No. But while we continue research on the matter, there is no reason not to act.

      Where's the analysis of the relative costs and benefits of acting and not acting? Not acting has substantial benefits with respect to dealing with future global warming while acting has both substantial present day harm and not very impressive future benefits even if global warming is as bad as claimed.

      This "we have to do something" impulse is also stupid. For example, you will die at some point. But if you kill yourself now, you won't die at any point in the future. It fixes the problem of dying in the future far more completely than any alternative method. Since we have to do something now, killing yourself is the obvious choice for best approach.

    68. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      When a hypothesis has been made, tested and results either support or refute the hypothesis.

      In terms of climate consider a single week let's say second week of December. Now measuring the temp all that week and other variables is that enough data to form a hypothesis about climate for the entire year?

      Seems ridiculous but when you consider climate as a whole you have to consider the immense spans of time we are dealing with, we aren't talking a few hundred years we are talking eons.

      While current data may show a warming trend we don't have data far back enough to prove it's warming due to whatever reason and not part of natural climate change.

      I do realize we can measure CO2 levels etc. Even these have been significantly higher and lower throughout history.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    69. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      Even still it doesn't mean we should willy nilly ignore pumping CO2 into the atmos.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    70. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by sjbe · · Score: 2

      We should base policy on what the majority of 'the people' (read voters without regard for what internationally other people want) wish to do, after they have been made aware of the risk a large number of scientists believe to exist.

      You don't let someone else drive you over a cliff just because they don't understand or care about the consequences of their actions. The electorate in general has not looked carefully at the evidence and many of them clearly do not understand it or are apparently ignoring the good of the many in favor of their own short term interests. It is VERY apparent that the electorate is not well informed on this issue and it is equally clear that short term economic self interest is very likely to result in long term harm.

    71. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      It never ceases to amaze me that peopel make the argument that somehow the profits to be made from promoting a "global warming agenda" eclipse the profits and therefore dominate the national interests of the fossil fuel industry.

      Why is that amazing? The numbers are huge on both sides. And given that we are seeing record profits for the oil companies at the same time that we're seeing this global warming hysteria, it reminds me that profit from each ideological approach is not mutually exclusive!

    72. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      Funny, if the same data has been used to claim a warming trend and the same data is used to say otherwise I'd call that invalid data.

      It should then be ignored. As it's proven flawed on both counts.

      That's how science works.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    73. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by mtrachtenberg · · Score: 1

      In other recent news, the United States Senate recently passed legislation requiring that all government contractors use 3 as the value for pi. Asked for comment, Sen. Inhofe stated "irrational numbers are the devil's spawn, and America is a Christian nation. We use wholesome whole numbers in this country."

    74. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      Fuck that, we can't be trusted to pick an insurance policy that isn't substandard remember?

      What makes you think the masses are any more qualified to make a decision about the climate?

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    75. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by tbannist · · Score: 1

      It should be named anthropogenically accelerated global climate change, as there is no question whether the climate is changing---one cannot expect that the actual climate will last forever, it has changed before and will change again. The question is whether climate change is (a) global, (b) faster than it would be natural, and therefore (c) caused by the man.

      I guess, they should have named it anthropogenically inverted global climate change, then. The natural trend is about -0.03C degrees C per century, when you add in the anthropogenic impact the current trend is around +2.00 degrees C per century.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    76. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      which by most standards, means we're doing just fine.

      Yay, for ISLE. Most standards are pretty lousy when it comes to publicly held debt.

    77. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      You also have to consider we shifted the production of CO2 offshore by outsourcing most of our industrial production.

      So while it looks good on paper "US reduces CO2 emissions" "CO2 emissions reduced in US by 70%", truth is they weren't just moved somewhere else on the planet.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    78. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Another alternative explanation is that AGW and the harm coming from it exist, but are grossly exaggerated.

    79. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      But science usually tends to change their beliefs based on data. If the data refutes a belief the belief is altered until there is new data.

      Earth is the center of the universe new data Earth revolves around the Sun.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    80. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      That you can duplicate, but you can't duplicate a few hundred thousand years of actual measurement.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    81. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Repent you AGW deniers!

    82. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because he said so! So there!

    83. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Dragonslicer · · Score: 1

      The difference is that you can duplicate the tests, measurements and models, and that you are invited to come up with alternative explanations.

      You have extra Earths lying around that can be used for repeatable experiments?

    84. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by ArmoredDragon · · Score: 1

      How does one determine when science has "fully resolved" a question ? Also, it's impossible to not have a policy while we wait. Right now, our policy is to keep producing CO2 at about the same rate.

      No that isn't policy, that's just what people do, and they could change their mind if they REALLY wanted to, without government intervention.

    85. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      How big is this comet?

      Big enough to kill thousands of people.

      Where's the analysis of the relative costs and benefits of acting and not acting?

      There have been many, including the Stern Report. But at this point this is economics/politics, not climate science. Because to answer that question, we must answer questions such as what is the "worth" of a Pacific island nation. Assuming that this worth is > 0, then we should invest a non-zero amount of dollars into avoiding/mitigating/adapting to climate change.

      Not acting has substantial benefits with respect to dealing with future global warming

      How so? Global warming has a positive feedback. Warming melts polar ice, which in turns means less ice reflect solar heat into space, which means more warming of the earth.

      while acting has both substantial present day harm and not very impressive future benefits even if global warming is as bad as claimed.

      Reports indicate that the earlier we start acting, the less costly it will be for mankind. Global warming isn't about the end of life on earth. It's about being poorer, globally. We will be poorer in 100 years if we do nothing, because warming will have a significant cost.

    86. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      It's not about giving money to anyone. It's about reducing fossil fuel consumption. An effective way to achieve this is to tax fossil fuels. It doesn't matter where the money goes, it could even be burned, and it would still discourage people from buying it.

    87. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by ArmoredDragon · · Score: 1

      Reminds me of that pamphlet named something like "100 scientists against Einstein", and Einstein commented that it only takes one of them prove him wrong, not 100.

    88. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by tnk1 · · Score: 1

      The thing you are missing is that "running code" is an objective goal which can be tested fairly easily.

      Most policy decisions don't have such absolute and immediate feedback.

      If there was a simulation that not only tested warming, but also provided accurate modelling about what exactly might be causing it, and most importantly, the outcomes of various policy decisions that could be taken to alleviate the issue, you might then be able to more closely compare an engineering task force with national and international politics.

      What many AGW advocates miss in the policy debate is that they are often bundling the science with specific policy statements that are related, but not always directly required to reduce warming. So it sounds to others like they are saying:

      "You all have to accept a full "progressive" slate of environmental restrictions or otherwise you are against science"

      I think that the other end is responding in a knee jerk way to those comments.

      I'm willing to accept that warming is something that exists and is likely affected by man. What I am not going to do is vote for the Green Party or even the Democratic Party just because of that, because they trail their own baggage and policy add-ons despite their much better position on the science of AGW.

    89. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Alsee · · Score: 2, Insightful

      if the same data has been used to claim a warming trend and the same data is used to say otherwise I'd call that invalid data.

      The same data has been used to claim men landed on the moon, and that the moon landing was a hoax. Therefore all data related to the moon landing should then be ignored. As it's proven flawed on both counts.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
    90. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 0

      Several observations: 1) You are hopelessly naive. Where the money goes is the entire story 2) A pox on whoever decided that the tax code should be use to manipulate citizens 3) Burning money creates CO2

    91. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, to give us a safety margin on the climate, public policy should be set as though the worst-case warming will occur. Doesn't that make more sense than cherry-picking the years so it looks like we're in a warming pause?

    92. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Alsee · · Score: 2

      The denialists will still come up with an alternate interpretation of cherry-picked data from some crackpot blog, to prove you wrong.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
    93. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by budgenator · · Score: 1

      Well we are 38% certain that "2014 was the hottest year on record", it also might be Among the 3 percent Coldest Years in 10,000 years.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    94. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by d34thm0nk3y · · Score: 1

      You are projecting your religion onto science. Not the other way around.

    95. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is that a fact? Please point to the experiment that demonstrates that man-made climate change exists.

    96. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by budgenator · · Score: 1

      All you have to do is look at OCO splash page banner to see that the US contribution to CO2 pales even against geologic sources.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    97. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Measurements are statistics. Models are impossible for a system as complex as Earth. As for the "tests"; they don't exist. There is no reproducible experiment that demonstrates AGW. It's nonsense to claim otherwise..

    98. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Chess_the_cat · · Score: 1

      Are you unfamiliar with carbon taxes? That is absolutely the claim!

      --
      Support the First Amendment. Read at -1
    99. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Science is both a method and a philosophy. The method is designed to accurately assess observed reality and determine what is most likely to happen based upon what has in fact happened before. The philosophy says that the best choice in any instance in time is to work from the assumption that what is most likely to happen based on what has factually happened before. There is no requirement to believe science's best answer is right, there is only the fact that sciences best answer is the best answer we have at any moment and therefore the one you should base your decisions and opinions on. Even if proven wrong later, it will still always have been the most rationale choice based on the data you had available at the time.

    100. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Big enough to kill thousands of people.

      Unless, of course, it's not that big.

      There have been many, including the Stern Report. But at this point this is economics/politics, not climate science. Because to answer that question, we must answer questions such as what is the "worth" of a Pacific island nation. Assuming that this worth is > 0, then we should invest a non-zero amount of dollars into avoiding/mitigating/adapting to climate change.

      Economics is a place where global warming predictions are egregiously wrong.

      The Stern report in question overestimates future damage from global warming due to overly low time value (of money and other things) by using an artificially low economic growth rate value in place of the actual inflation-adjusted GDP growth (or similar measures of growth of economic value). For example, the cost of harms a century in advance were overstated by a factor of two.

      And other costs are notoriously overestimated. A particularly big one is the alleged cost of sea level rise (coupled with alleged increases in storm strength). The typical approach is to look at the land that is predicted to be inundated (which often is highly priced) and value the cost of global warming as the destruction of that property. This ignores that most of that property will need to be replaced well before sea level rise becomes a factor in its destruction. And if you're going to do that, then a move to higher ground is not a significant additional cost.

      Well, unless society chooses to make such activities overly expensive. For example, we could greatly reduce the alleged impact of sea level rise by reforming public flood insurance in the US. Not the world, the US. It's amazing how much of the supposed evidence for global warming, such as citing increased insurance claims for flooding and other extreme weather, relies on ignoring the effects of severely broken human systems. Another such example is the conflating of droughts caused by pumping out an aquifer with droughts caused by AGW.

      Similar issues are uncovered with claims of loss of arable land. This ignores the increase in arable land coming from most of the heating occurring in the upper temperate zones of the Northern hemisphere.

      How so? Global warming has a positive feedback. Warming melts polar ice, which in turns means less ice reflect solar heat into space, which means more warming of the earth.

      And heat radiates into space as the fourth power of temperature. There's your global warming negative feedback.

      Reports indicate that the earlier we start acting, the less costly it will be for mankind. Global warming isn't about the end of life on earth. It's about being poorer, globally. We will be poorer in 100 years if we do nothing, because warming will have a significant cost.

      So what? Where's the evidence to back up those reports?

    101. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Find the economist that says being in debt is preferable to not being in debt. Also find the economist that says having nothing but plans to run a debt up higher and zero plans to pay it down means someone is doing just fine.

    102. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Dan+Ost · · Score: 1

      The weak decline in the last decade does not make up for the total increase over the last 2 decades.

      I've updated your URL to show the trend for the last 20 years. It shows a very different picture than the link you posted.

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      --

      *sigh* back to work...
    103. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by marcosdumay · · Score: 3, Insightful

      An interesting aspect of science is that all our models are always wrong. And we are always aware of that.

    104. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      Big enough to kill thousands of people.

      Unless, of course, it's not that big.

      As I said, we suppose we are 90% confident that this will happen. The OP said that we should never act before the science is settled. So in this case, applying this logic, we shouldn't do anything and hope for that 10%.

      The Stern report in question overestimates future damage from global warming due to overly low time value (of money and other things) by using an artificially low economic growth rate value in place of the actual inflation-adjusted GDP growth (or similar measures of growth of economic value). For example, the cost of harms a century in advance were overstated by a factor of two.

      There are criticisms about this report. But where is the report saying that global warming is happening, but that doing nothing will end up being cheaper than acting? There is none. Politics can never be 100% evidence based. See my example about the comet. We have to act according to what is the most likely with our current knowledge. Even if global warming was a hoax. Let say we reduce our CO2 emissions by 10%. City air quality will end up being cleaner.

      And heat radiates into space as the fourth power of temperature. There's your global warming negative feedback.

      It's not enough. It's an equilibrium. If more ice melts, the earth temperature equilibrium shift to higher temperature. Of course radiation to space means that that positive feedback won't last forever. And anyway if all the ice melts the positive feedback will stop.

    105. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1
      So in general just like every other issue.

      To quote the late George Carlin:

      Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

      --
      Time to offend someone
    106. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He has 'bad data' because it doesn't match *your* conclusions?
      Show us *your* data.

    107. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      Burn heretic!

      --
      Time to offend someone
    108. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Layzej · · Score: 2
      You are going down the up escalator: http://www.skepticalscience.co...

      Over the last 37 years one can identify overlapping short windows of time when climate "skeptics" could have argued (and often did...) that global warming had stopped. And yet over the entire period question containing these six cooling trends, the underlying trend is one of rapid global warming (0.27C per decade, according to the new Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature [BEST] dataset). - http://www.skepticalscience.co...

    109. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by jdege · · Score: 1

      After the 1984 NIH Consensus Conference on Cholesterol, one of the scientists involved stated that "if there are truly been a consensus, there would have been no need for a conference".

      Still, there were large profits to be made in convincing people to use statins and to eat low-fat food. So they stacked the panel, and reached their predetermined conclusion, and with the connivance of a willing popular media, doomed millions to lives of misery, obesity, and illness.

      It was, in my mind, the single greatest mistake in human history.

      Because we let a government committee declare a "consensus".

      --
      When cryptography is outlawed, bayl bhgynjf jvyy unir cevinpl.
    110. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Thanks. For the record, you were calling people names like "naive mental lightweights" and ridiculing them for not being able to understand what the temperature data shows over the last decade. It appears you are the one who does not understand what the data shows.

      The data also shows no statistically significant warming for about 17 years, contrary to climate models predictions. The "pause" has lasted almost as long as the ~20 year warming period that began in the mid-70's.

    111. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Pardon me, it was not you who was calling people names.

    112. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by JasonGoatcher · · Score: 0

      Sounds good. May be a challenge to get all the Congress members to do that, though.

      Best post I've read in a while, makes me regret the Christian rant that made me lose mod points a month or so back.

    113. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by JasonGoatcher · · Score: 0

      Yeah, there's the rub right there. All smart people believe in global warming, it's when you add anthropogenic to the phrase that you get disagreement. Not that I'm stating an opinion or anything, just zeroing in on the actual problem.

    114. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      If ~17 years of no warming is not significant, then it should follow that ~20 years of warming from '76 - '98 is also not significant. (Prior to that human influence was negligible according to the IPCC.) You can't have it both ways. If the warming is meaningful, then so is the pause.

    115. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by bane2571 · · Score: 1

      Actually the data being use to claim there is a pause is the Satellite data set (RSS) which I believe has full Global coverage. The data being used to claim "hottest year ever" is (this year) the GISS Which is the interpolated data the GP mentions.

      Most people trust that the climate scientists are using reasonable methods to determine the interpolation of station data but when the two data sets vary, it raises questions about which is correct.

    116. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      That you, Karmashock?

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    117. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Xolotl · · Score: 1

      Newtonian physics is not wrong. It is an approximation which is valid at most scales.

    118. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1
      My data? Ask and ye shall receive:

      http://journals.ametsoc.org/do...

      The report is a little big, heading toward 46 Megabytes, but I'm certain there is a typo in there that will allow you to refute the whole concept of AGW.

      Have at it.

      But wait! There's more!

      Climate data online

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-w...

      Paleoclimatology data

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-...

      Probably what people are referring to in trying to say there has been no warming recently is the Monckton analysis:

      http://www.climatedepot.com/20...

      He's an interesting character, for those who like to talk about Mann's irascibility. He wants scientists to be Christian, (or other appropriate religion) and wants climate change supporters to wear Swastikas in order to identify them.

      I only put that in here because deniers like to talk about Mann's personality, yet one of deniers biggest hero's is a hoot in his own right. But if he were correct, it doen't matter. Science is not right or wrong based on personality.

      http://www.sourcewatch.org/ind...

      But he's pretty well been debunked now.

      http://transitionculture.org/2...

      The online presentation is the link you want.

      Here is a response to the movie "The Great global Warming Swindle" a movie about how global warming isn't. It's a little sarcastic and snarky, but you might understand that.

      http://www.durangobill.com/Swi...

      The first instance is telling. Altered graphics and ommission of data thatat doesn't agree with a conclusion. Omitting the last 20 years temperature data is plain and simple - fraud in the name of denialism.

      Anyhow, these are sources you can readily access via the internet. If you need more, I can find them for you. But you have an exercise first. Just one, taken from the last link. Explain how omitting the 20 years of data to prove the average global temperature is not increasing is ethical and honest, and adequate proof or disproof of anything. Might as well just drop all of the high temps, re-average, and claim it's getting colder. Yet it is the deniers "trump card".

      And this is why deniers bear a strong relation to creationists. The Monckhaven analysis is brought up time and again despite it being proven false. Not a whole lot unlike creationists continuing to cite the "humans walking with dinosaurs" fossil, or "the eye is so complex" arguments or polonium halos or variable speed of light, or even the grandaddy of them all "Humans did not evolve from Monkeys or Apes", which is true enough, but only because humans and apes and monkees evolved from some common ancestor a long long time ago.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    119. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Spazmania · · Score: 1

      How does one determine when science has "fully resolved" a question ?

      When the theory accounts for the evidence from all repeatable experiments and sufficient time has passed (typically a couple of decades) during which new experiments aggressively attempting to disprove the theory fail to turn up evidence which either contradicts the theory or requires the theory to be modified.

      It's impossible to not have a policy while we wait.

      We had no public policy on CO2 emissions for most of recorded history. The world has not ended.

      Proposed policy on global warming is expensive. Too expensive to get a second chance if we get it wrong the first time. The smart money says: wait until the computer models become reliable enough to simulate exactly what will and won't work. God help us if we regulate CO2 and it turns out that global warming was real but carbon soot was the main problem.

      --
      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
    120. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by Spazmania · · Score: 1

      If there was a simulation that not only tested warming, but also provided accurate modelling about what exactly might be causing it, and most importantly, the outcomes of various policy decisions that could be taken to alleviate the issue, you might then be able to more closely compare an engineering task force with national and international politics.

      Hear hear!

      --
      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
    121. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by strikethree · · Score: 1

      The future hasn't happened yet.

      Yes. Yes it has.
      /me slowly looks up at the timestamp on his post and the timestamp on itzly's post.

      Okay. I am SERIOUSLY creeped out now. The CAPTCHAs here are usually relatively prescient if you think in a broad enough manner but this time, the CAPTCHA was orthant.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O...

      --
      "Someone needs to talk to the tree of liberty about its ghoulish drinking problem." by ohnocitizen
    122. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      There are criticisms about this report. But where is the report saying that global warming is happening, but that doing nothing will end up being cheaper than acting? There is none. Politics can never be 100% evidence based. See my example about the comet. We have to act according to what is the most likely with our current knowledge. Even if global warming was a hoax. Let say we reduce our CO2 emissions by 10%. City air quality will end up being cleaner.

      Unless, it has a negative effect on air quality and city air quality turns out to be worse. The big problem with global warming remedies, is that they can increase global poverty. That tends to increase not decrease pollution.

      And I disagree that things like the Stern Report are more within our current knowledge than the skepticism about these reports.

      It's not enough. It's an equilibrium. If more ice melts, the earth temperature equilibrium shift to higher temperature. Of course radiation to space means that that positive feedback won't last forever. And anyway if all the ice melts the positive feedback will stop.

      Sure, it is. As Earth shifts to higher temperatures, the amount of heat radiated to space increases as well.

    123. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      As I said, we suppose we are 90% confident that this will happen. The OP said that we should never act before the science is settled. So in this case, applying this logic, we shouldn't do anything and hope for that 10%.

      I grant that the perfectionism of the original poster is a bad idea, but that's just not the problem with global warming. There's considerable uncertainty greater than 10% that the cure is better than the disease, coupled with IMHO a considerable degree of bias towards presenting an argument for strong reductions in fossil fuel consumption.

      For example, there's this bizarre insistence on only considering how to keep global warming under 2 C increase.

      That's not going to happen unless both the degree of global warming is less than expected and humanity has a solid replacement for fossil fuels that decisively replaces them economically. Eg, renewables so much cheaper that they not only wipe out coal plants in electricity production, but also result in considerably cheaper electric vehicles than gas-powered vehicles. I think that is unlikely even if developed world countries start putting punitive taxes on carbon emissions. The rest of the world just isn't interested aside from relatively susceptible outliers like Bangladesh or the Micronesia countries.

    124. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Trollish but I'll bite: In a number of scientific fields (e.g., astronomy) not everything is proven by experiments, but inferred from observations, models, and test the predictions of the models against new observations.

    125. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by risom · · Score: 1

      When science hasn't fully resolved a question based on the evidence

      A question is, by the very definition of science, never fully resolvable. That right there is the difference to religious dogma.

    126. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      The rest of the world just isn't interested aside from relatively susceptible outliers like Bangladesh or the Micronesia countries.

      The rest of the world is interested, as long as the developped world, who contributed the most to global warming, lead the way. I think that's fair. But countries like US and Canada are so bad a reducing emissions that I understand the rest of the world don't want to do anything.

    127. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      Unless, it has a negative effect on air quality and city air quality turns out to be worse. The big problem with global warming remedies, is that they can increase global poverty. That tends to increase not decrease pollution.

      If we realize we were wrong it's easy to start emitting a lot of CO2 again. If we were right, and did nothing, it will be a lot more expensive.

      And I disagree that things like the Stern Report are more within our current knowledge than the skepticism about these reports.

      The problem is that skepticism is not as seriously documented. Most simply deny global warming is happening, or that human activity has something to do with it (which is against the scientific consensus, we are no longer talking about economics and politics here). Where are the reports acknoleging AGW is happening, but that the costs of doing nothing is lower than the cost of acting against it? I haven't seen any.

      Sure, it is. As Earth shifts to higher temperatures, the amount of heat radiated to space increases as well.

      With a given constant amount of CO2 emitted, do you agree that the temperature will be higher without polar ice than with polar ice? Water absorbs more heat than ice. Ice reflects more heat than ice. The fact that the hotter is the planet, the more heat radiate to space doesn't change that.

    128. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have read building codes. They are not based on Newtonian physics, but on empiricisms that are demonstrated experimentally to be correct.

      They say things like: beam thickness T = sqrt(load * span**2) * constant1 + constant2

      constant2 is not justified by Newtonian materials; it is justified by experimental tests that show that concrete beams with small cross-sections don't follow the curve that larger beams do (due to friability of the surface).

    129. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by PhilHibbs · · Score: 1

      The great thing about statistics and graphs is that by carefully selecting your data you can do things like this with them.

    130. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by PhilHibbs · · Score: 1

      And this article linked from yours shows just how disingenuous that approach is. Brilliant.

    131. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      If we realize we were wrong it's easy to start emitting a lot of CO2 again. If we were right, and did nothing, it will be a lot more expensive.

      Why would "we" ever realize we were wrong? The tiger-repelling rock worked.

      The problem is that skepticism is not as seriously documented. Most simply deny global warming is happening, or that human activity has something to do with it (which is against the scientific consensus, we are no longer talking about economics and politics here). Where are the reports acknoleging AGW is happening, but that the costs of doing nothing is lower than the cost of acting against it? I haven't seen any.

      Documentation != evidence. The fallacy of argument through obfuscation is just as much a fallacy as anything else.

      With a given constant amount of CO2 emitted, do you agree that the temperature will be higher without polar ice than with polar ice? Water absorbs more heat than ice. Ice reflects more heat than ice. The fact that the hotter is the planet, the more heat radiate to space doesn't change that.

      So what? We were speaking of positive and negative feedbacks. You pointed out a positive feedback given without context and I pointed out a negative feedback associated with the same system.

      And I don't care that there is global warming. What I care about are the costs and benefits of the change.

    132. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      The rest of the world is interested, as long as the developped world, who contributed the most to global warming, lead the way.

      In other words, as long as somebody else does the actual work? That doesn't sound like interest to me.

    133. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      No, as long as the developed world does more. And that's fair, by looking at the per-capita emissions we know who should do the most effort.

    134. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      I don't see any sign of that. China, for example, is a great supporter of the developed world cutting back at China's benefit. In fact, I think this particular game boils down to the developed world committing economic suicide while China builds up for its chance at being a superpower.

    135. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      In other words, if something new comes up it should be impossible to have a policy for twenty years plus the amount of time for it to be studied? And, apparently, finding new information that results in changes to the theory put it off by another twenty years? Or that experiments with odd results should put off policy decisions. Do you think this is really workable?

      The world has not ended because there has been no policy on CO2 emissions. For most of recorded history, human CO2 emissions were not globally significant. We've pushed it from about 280ppm to about 400ppm in less than two centuries now, and it's having significant effects.

      The current lack of policy on global warming is potentially too expensive to get a second chance. God help us if we don't regulate CO2 and it turns out that the less conservative scientists were actually right.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    136. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      I looked at the splash page, and saw no such indication.

      Also, the increase from 280ppm to 400ppm, with carbon isotopic ratios that show the increase is from sequestered carbon, suggests that we're doing something new.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    137. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      The claim is, that by taxing sequestered CO2 emissions, we're internalizing an externality and causing the market to work more efficiently. By introducing transferable carbon credits, we allow the market to efficiently determine how to best reduce such emissions. Nobody has claimed that raising taxes per se will accomplish anything useful for the climate (note that raising taxes and spending typically stimulates the economy, causing more CO2 release).

      The free market is a very powerful tool, and carbon taxes and credits are ways of letting it help reduce emissions.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    138. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      And, if by the time we got the simulation you are talking about, fishing has pretty much collapsed as a food source, agriculture is way down, we're in the middle of an extinction event, sea level is up a couple of feet, etc., well, it just sucks to be us?

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    139. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by budgenator · · Score: 1

      Look again all that red over Indonesia and the Philippines is from volcanism, all that red over Greenland and Iceland is from volcanism, all of that red in the north Pacific Ocean is volcanism. All that red in the South American and African equatorial regions is from the rainforrests. You have to go to China to see Anthropogenic CO2 levels high enough to be in the red.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    140. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      The problem of developed countries is that they didn't have the means to measure their emissions. That's why the deal in the Kyoto protocol included that developing countries started to measure their emissions, while developed countries started to reduce them. Phase 2 was supposed to be about developing countries reducing emissions too, but developed countries such as US and Canada broke the deal by not reducing their emissions at all.

    141. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      Documentation != evidence. The fallacy of argument through obfuscation is just as much a fallacy as anything else.

      There is no evidence in politics. And economics is a social science. Don't expect the same kind of evidence as in physics or biology.

      So what?

      So waiting to be 100% sure that global warming is happening can mean it will be too late (more expensive), and is just as stupid as waiting to be 100% sure the comet will it the earth.

    142. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is just more wealth redistribution by the Demos to buy votes from the people they give the money to.

      Wow. another idiot playing the 1% lottery.

    143. Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? by tnk1 · · Score: 1

      I wasn't suggesting that it was a viable option, I was just contrasting politics with what you can do with the IETF, which is an engineering task force based on running code.

      Point is, even if we accept AGW is there and is a problem, it still doesn't tell us how we're going to fix it, and what impacts the fixes will have on us. If a "fix" ends up causing unrest, or a depression, you could end up with wars that might accelerate the process, instead of correcting it.

      At least if you have code, it works and/or performs in relatively rapid time or not. We don't have that luxury with politics.

    144. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      There is no evidence in politics. And economics is a social science. Don't expect the same kind of evidence as in physics or biology.

      These are non sequiturs. There is evidence in climatology. And economics is a science, should we choose to treat it as such.

      So waiting to be 100% sure that global warming is happening can mean it will be too late (more expensive), and is just as stupid as waiting to be 100% sure the comet will it the earth.

      I think there's a better chance of a good outcome waiting on a demonstration of the supposed dire nature of global warming. Keep in mind that there's plenty of evidence indicating that the effects of global warming are long in coming, slow to occur, and moderate in effect. It is near trivial for a human civilization to adapt under those circumstances. I don't see the compelling reason to act that a significant, likely asteroid impact would have.

    145. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      There is evidence in climatology.

      Of course. And the evidence shows that global warming is happening, and that human activity is responsible.

      And economics is a science, should we choose to treat it as such.

      We do. But how much do we value a pacific island nation that would disappear because of climate change? I mean not only the land but its people and culture. How much do we value species that would go extinct? That's not an answer for economists, it's a moral/political one. You can't answer that with science. Therefore you will never have scientific evidence that we should invest X$ to fight climate change, just like you will never have scientific evidence of the opposite. And this is not a valid reason for not doing anything.
      So the best we have are reports such as the Stern, Garnaut, and IPCC reports. They all conclude we should lower our emissions.

      I think there's a better chance of a good outcome waiting on a demonstration of the supposed dire nature of global warming. Keep in mind that there's plenty of evidence indicating that the effects of global warming are long in coming, slow to occur, and moderate in effect.

      Of course a rise of 2 Celsius might seem a "moderate" effect but the consequences aren't.

      It is near trivial for a human civilization to adapt under those circumstances. I don't see the compelling reason to act that a significant, likely asteroid impact would have.

      There you go. You didn't understand the whole point. Global warming has never been about the death of the human civilization. No wonder why you think we shouldn't do anything. Of course we would adapt. All those who pretended otherwise are alarmists without any clue about the real issue. But the real problem is that the costs of not doing anything are higher than acting.

    146. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      If we know the models aren't even close to being predictive (at all), then why are we using them for policy?

      IF you say, "Because that is the best we have", you're part of the problem and a religious nut.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    147. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship.

      No, it's not. Moderating -1 doesn't prevent people from reading the comment, it just tells them that it's probably not worth reading - and most will heed that advice (but some still read at -1).

    148. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Nice, but in the real world you often don't have the luxury of waiting that long.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    149. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Spazmania · · Score: 1

      if something new comes up it should be impossible to have a policy for twenty years

      I 'spose if the Sun is going to explode next year we should probably act faster but in general that's right: we shouldn't enact policy whose cost has a dozen zeros behind it until the science has been generating reliable predictions for decades.

      --
      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
    150. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Of course. And the evidence shows that global warming is happening, and that human activity is responsible.

      Partly responsible. Otherwise, I agree. So what? My argument hasn't been that AGW doesn't exist, but that there isn't compelling reason to act on it in a costly way.

      We do. But how much do we value a pacific island nation that would disappear because of climate change? I mean not only the land but its people and culture. How much do we value species that would go extinct? That's not an answer for economists, it's a moral/political one. You can't answer that with science. Therefore you will never have scientific evidence that we should invest X$ to fight climate change, just like you will never have scientific evidence of the opposite. And this is not a valid reason for not doing anything.

      What's your willingness to pay out of your own wealth to protect these things? That tells me exactly how valuable these things are. And that's how you transform any preference into a purely economic question.

      So the best we have are reports such as the Stern, Garnaut, and IPCC reports. They all conclude we should lower our emissions.

      Here's a propaganda lesson for you. These are first past the post arguments from authority. Just because they existed before most counterarguments were formulated. doesn't mean that they were the best arguments even at the time of their creation. For example, the Stern report's flawed time value factor was readily apparent, meaning that reinterpreting the study through a more appropriate time value is already at the time of the publishing of the Stern report, is already better than the Stern report was.

    151. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      What's your willingness to pay out of your own wealth to protect these things? That tells me exactly how valuable these things are. And that's how you transform any preference into a purely economic question.

      It's more complex than that. Of course your willingness to pay for them will be $0. And let say they are willing to reduce their CO2 emission to close to 0 because they don't want their country to disappear. It won't be enough. Their sea level will still rise because of you. Does it mean they should pay the cost (losing their island) because you emit CO2? Seems unfair to me. You should pay for your own negative externalities, and not push them to other people or other generations.

      Here's a propaganda lesson for you. These are first past the post arguments from authority. Just because they existed before most counterarguments were formulated. doesn't mean that they were the best arguments even at the time of their creation. For example, the Stern report's flawed time value factor was readily apparent, meaning that reinterpreting the study through a more appropriate time value is already at the time of the publishing of the Stern report, is already better than the Stern report was.

      Alright, where can I read these reports? I want something comprehensive that covers the whole issue. So don't give me a source that covers only a specific country/region or a specific consequence.

    152. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      It's more complex than that. Of course your willingness to pay for them will be $0. And let say they are willing to reduce their CO2 emission to close to 0 because they don't want their country to disappear. It won't be enough. Their sea level will still rise because of you. Does it mean they should pay the cost (losing their island) because you emit CO2? Seems unfair to me. You should pay for your own negative externalities, and not push them to other people or other generations.

      Well, how much is an island worth? Again, I don't see anyone paying very much to protect these things. If it's not valuable to anyone else, then it's not valuable to me.

      And if we're paying for our own externalities, shouldn't we also get compensated for our own externalities with the opposite sign?

      Alright, where can I read these reports? I want something comprehensive that covers the whole issue. So don't give me a source that covers only a specific country/region or a specific consequence.

      How about the Stern report where you take the estimated cost of global warming and divide it by ten. Then take the estimated cost of carbon dioxide emission reductions and multiply them by ten? That's a report that probably has more accurate cost/benefit analysis than the original report.

    153. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      In other words, you're looking at the pretty pictures, making up a story about them, and trying to flog it off on /..

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    154. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      And if we're paying for our own externalities, shouldn't we also get compensated for our own externalities with the opposite sign?

      Yes. Generally if we consider something has positive externalities we tend to subsidize it.

      How about the Stern report where you take the estimated cost of global warming and divide it by ten. Then take the estimated cost of carbon dioxide emission reductions and multiply them by ten? That's a report that probably has more accurate cost/benefit analysis than the original report.

      Oh really. Now you are taking numbers out of your ass. If you think you are right, publish it. I am sure your methodology will be laugh at.

    155. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Yes. Generally if we consider something has positive externalities we tend to subsidize it.

      Unless it happens to be fossil fuel production and usage. Then we tend to pretend positive externality doesn't exist.

      Oh really. Now you are taking numbers out of your ass. If you think you are right, publish it. I am sure your methodology will be laugh at.

      So what? We were looking for something comprehensive that covers the whole issue and was more accurate than the Stern report and other such reports. I found one such.

    156. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      Unless it happens to be fossil fuel production and usage. Then we tend to pretend positive externality doesn't exist.

      They might exist but the negative ones far outweight the positives.

      So what? We were looking for something comprehensive that covers the whole issue and was more accurate than the Stern report and other such reports. I found one such.

      We were talking about credible, peer-reviewed reports.

    157. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unless it happens to be fossil fuel production and usage. Then we tend to pretend positive externality doesn't exist.

      Actually, it's the opposite. Both sides recognize that oil gets rewarded a lot for externalities. The alternative fuel side point out that energy has a long history of being subsidized (thus their green energy should get subsidized too)

      Meanwhile, the oil side point out that by cost per kilowatt hour, oil gets less subsidies (so people should get off their backs)

      The ones who pretend oil has no positive externalities are ones with political agendas. Namely, an agenda favoring oil. They'll pretend to be libertarians or fiscal conservatives, saying "nobody" should get subsidies. But they don't want the oil subsidies to be cut. So they pretend oil has no positive externalities thus aren't getting subsidies and thus there's nothing to cut from oil - only cut everybody else's subsidies!

      This behavior isn't limited to oil of course. It's an American tradition. Though the rest of the world does it too, America is exceptional here, what with its obsession to freedom.

    158. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      They might exist but the negative ones far outweight the positives.

      Show it then. Where is this evidence? I'll show as evidence of considerable positive externalities, the synergistic effects of cheaper energy and transportation on everything we do and make.

      We were talking about credible, peer-reviewed reports.

      And I was talking about a way to make those reports more accurate in fact than merely in appearance.

    159. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      Show it then. Where is this evidence? I'll show as evidence of considerable positive externalities, the synergistic effects of cheaper energy and transportation on everything we do and make.

      These are not externalities. That's the benefit to the user/customer. The evidence of the negative externalities is global warming. http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/... An other one is lower air quality in cities.

      And I was talking about a way to make those reports more accurate in fact than merely in appearance.

      That's your opinion. Thankfully no one will consider it. If you think your opinion/method is valuable, have the guts to publish it and get it peer reviewed.

    160. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      The ones who pretend oil has no positive externalities are ones with political agendas. Namely, an agenda favoring oil. They'll pretend to be libertarians or fiscal conservatives, saying "nobody" should get subsidies. But they don't want the oil subsidies to be cut. So they pretend oil has no positive externalities thus aren't getting subsidies and thus there's nothing to cut from oil - only cut everybody else's subsidies!

      That wouldn't make sense, since by granting such an argument, they would destroy the strongest argument for relatively unconstrained use of oil, namely, it's incredible usefulness for transportation. I could see the foolish or naive thinking that if they allow some point of debate, then their opponents will reciprocate by allowing some other point of debate of similar magnitude in the reverse direction, but that doesn't work in practice. An experienced debater wouldn't make such a mistake.

      Further, my experience has been that everyone who insists that oil has huge negative externalities never mention the possibility that oil has positive externalities. And they don't favor oil.

    161. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      These are not externalities. That's the benefit to the user/customer.

      Externality is a benefit or cost to someone other than the user/customer. For example, a package delivery business can deliver packages cheaper with cheap oil. All of the customers of that business are third parties which can benefit from the cheaper costs of delivering packages. The customers of the customers in turn get cheaper services. In other words, cheap oil results in cheaper costs of doing anything in society even for parties which aren't directly directly consuming oil products for transportation.

      That is the positive externality to oil.

      That's your opinion. Thankfully no one will consider it. If you think your opinion/method is valuable, have the guts to publish it and get it peer reviewed.

      A typical dishonest challenge. So it takes "guts" to publish something on your own dime contrary to the climate change group think? Sure. But what does it take to publish what your sugar daddy paying all your expenses wants you to publish? It's inevitable and easy like water flowing downhill.

    162. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      Externality is a benefit or cost to someone other than the user/customer. For example, a package delivery business can deliver packages cheaper with cheap oil. All of the customers of that business are third parties which can benefit from the cheaper costs of delivering packages. The customers of the customers in turn get cheaper services. In other words, cheap oil results in cheaper costs of doing anything in society even for parties which aren't directly directly consuming oil products for transportation.

      You don't get what an externality is. The delivery buisiness directly buy gas. The custommer of that buisness directly buy from that buisness. Therefore the cheap gas is not an externality. It doesn't benefit those not getting these services. Everybody suffers from lower air quality because of that gas, no matter if they use the delivery company or not. This is an externality.

      A typical dishonest challenge. So it takes "guts" to publish something on your own dime contrary to the climate change group think? Sure. But what does it take to publish what your sugar daddy paying all your expenses wants you to publish? It's inevitable and easy like water flowing downhill.

      No. It takes guts to publish, at all. You won't publish your method because you know it is flawed and would not be passing the peer review stage.

    163. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by budgenator · · Score: 1

      If you have a more plausible hypothesis, then by all means feel free to share

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    164. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      You don't get what an externality is.

      An externality is a cost or benefit to any party which is not part of a trade. That's it.

    165. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      And you are part of the trade when you get a service from company A which in turns gets another service from company B.

    166. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      And you are part of the trade when you get a service from company A which in turns gets another service from company B.

      How? I benefit from the results of the trade, just as an asthmatic might suffer, but neither I or the asthmatic had a say in whether the trade happened or not. That makes me just another third party like everyone else who is not involved in the trade.

    167. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      No. Just because you add a middle man in a trade doesn't make it an externality.

    168. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That wouldn't make sense, since by granting such an argument, they would destroy the strongest argument for relatively unconstrained use of oil, namely, it's incredible usefulness for transportation

      Unless it doesn't. I see you're arguing about what an externality is with the other poster. Allow me to quote wiki, bold emphasis mine:

      "In economics, an externality is the cost or benefit that affects a party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit."

      I hate to side with the other poster, but by that definition, better transportation is NOT a positive externality. Save for exceptions, the cost of transportation is included in the cost of any good or service, as part of the value of any good or service is that it is delivered to where the customer wants it (and when, and how). When a customer choose to pay for a good or service, they are also choosing to incur the cost of transportation, and receive the benefit of transportation.

      If you want to be pedantic, transportation cost is just a part of production costs, as everything is really just a bunch of matter and energy moved (transported) around into a form that is useful to the buyer.

      An experienced debater wouldn't make such a mistake.

      That's ok. The people with political agendas rarely have to deal with experienced debaters Science by democracy doesn't work, but pushing your political agenda isn't science (studying how you most successfully go about pushing your agenda may be a science - political science). And using democracy to push your policy works very well. You don't need to debate or even defeat experienced debaters. You just need to get the masses on your side. And maybe some politicians, who may or may not be experienced debaters, but again you don't have to beat them in a logical debate. Politicians by nature are about political agendas too. You just need to convince them that your agenda and their agenda align (whether those agendas align with your/his constituents is another can of worms)

      Further, my experience has been that everyone who insists that oil has huge negative externalities never mention the possibility that oil has positive externalities. And they don't favor oil.

      Never mention != pretend it doesn't exist

      Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

      I see the other poster you've been arguing with has not pretend the externalties don't exist, but merely say "the negative ones far outweight the positives." (you can debate with him how wrong he is, but he isn't pretending positives don't exist) So at least one person doesn't pretend they don't exist, not "everyone".

    169. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Nor does adding a middleman not make it an externality. If I make a deal with the US government so that every transaction in the US now has to pay me a 1% sales tax in order to occur, then I've become a middle man in a zillion trades, but as a negative externality of the one trade with the US government.

    170. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      It's an externality when you are forcing it to others not part of the deal. When you buy service from a delivery company, the oil is part of the deal, even if the delivery company act as a middle man and do not extract, refine and transport the oil itself. An example of a positive externality is when you buy a christmas tree and put it in front of your house. All your neighboors benefit from the view of the new tree even if they are not parties to the the deal. Some people might think it's ugly and to them the externality is negative. A positive externality from oil could be the Northwest passage. Even if you don't want to, when you burn gas in your car, you contribute to the navigation in northen Canada.

    171. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      "In economics, an externality is the cost or benefit that affects a party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit."

      Look at what I claimed externality meant:

      An externality is a cost or benefit to any party which is not part of a trade.

      Since the other parties are not part of the trade, then they did not choose to incur the costs or benefits of the trade and hence, my definition matches the Wikipedia definition of externality for trading.

    172. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Unless it doesn't.

      You're throwing away the synergy argument as a result. Namely, that cheap, abundant oil makes everything else cheaper and everyone wealthier. That's the argument for using and even subsidizing oil in a nutshell. Lose that and you're stuck haggling over the amount of the carbon tax or size of the cap-and-trade markets.

      Never mention != pretend it doesn't exist

      Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

      Actually it is evidence especially since the positive externalities of transportation and energy have been a big argument both for using oil and for making that oil cheap for decades. It's too prevalent and important to just not mention. For example, the price of oil is the second most important factor for inflation in the developed world after supply of money.

      I see the other poster you've been arguing with has not pretend the externalties don't exist, but merely say "the negative ones far outweight the positives."

      Which is a good sign since that means someone can modify their rhetorical arguments to take into account an opponent's position. It doesn't mean I'll agree with them though especially since they are now ignoring the positive externalities explicitly (as being "far outweighed" without justification) rather than implicitly.

    173. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      When you buy service from a delivery company, the oil is part of the deal, even if the delivery company act as a middle man and do not extract, refine and transport the oil itself.

      So are any negative externalities from fossil fuel use that drive up the price of the service. For example, if I buy an agricultural product which is made cheaper due to the use of cheap oil, then sure, that's part of the deal, a part which I didn't choose.

      But if the farms which produce that agricultural product also are suffering from a drought directly caused by AGW and which drives up the cost of the product in question? Well, that's part of the deal too. And again, a part which I didn't choose.

    174. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      So are any negative externalities from fossil fuel use that drive up the price of the service. For example, if I buy an agricultural product which is made cheaper due to the use of cheap oil, then sure, that's part of the deal, a part which I didn't choose.

      You don't choose the price in a competitive market. Anyway it's not the price of oil which has externalities. It's its use.

      But if the farms which produce that agricultural product also are suffering from a drought directly caused by AGW and which drives up the cost of the product in question? Well, that's part of the deal too. And again, a part which I didn't choose.

      That's not part of the deal. Amish farmers not using oil will suffer equally from AGW.

    175. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      You don't choose the price in a competitive market.

      An irrelevant detail, but it's worth noting that you do choose whether to engage in a trade or not.

      That's not part of the deal. Amish farmers not using oil will suffer equally from AGW.

      So externalities count only if they're incurred by people who are perceived by a single internet poster as not being participants in a market? The benefits or costs of an externality are not magically different from any other benefits or costs when it comes to trade. It's all part of the deal whether you can choose it or not.

    176. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      It's the impact on those not part of the deal which is an externality. You and the delivery company are both part of the deal. Any impact on any of you is NOT an externality. Any impact on someone else is an externality, no matter if they personally use oil or not, as if they do it's not related to this deal.

    177. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      It's the impact on those not part of the deal which is an externality.

      No, that's not what externality means. Externality means you didn't make a choice to incur the cost or benefit. Making a trade doesn't imply that I'm part of some larger, nebulous "deal" and hence have agreed to whatever externalities I'm exposed to.

    178. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      Making a trade doesn't imply that I'm part of some larger, nebulous "deal" and hence have agreed to whatever externalities I'm exposed to.

      It's not nebulous. Just because you are ignorant doesn't make it an externality. So whether you agree or not to the pollution of your own car, it is par of the deal, or the trade (between you and the gas company) if you prefer. What is not part of the deal is the pollution that you force to others while driving your car.

      Externality means you didn't make a choice to incur the cost or benefit.

      Yes. And when you buy gas, or buy service from a delivery company, you make the choice to add more CO2 to the atmosphere. A small part of that cost will be assumed by you. But a much larger amount will be assumed by the rest of the world, and this is what we call an externality.

    179. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      It's not nebulous. Just because you are ignorant doesn't make it an externality. So whether you agree or not to the pollution of your own car, it is par of the deal, or the trade (between you and the gas company) if you prefer. What is not part of the deal is the pollution that you force to others while driving your car.

      I prefer "trade" not "deal" because "trade" has an established meaning ("mutually voluntary exchange of goods or services") while "deal" apparently means "Whatever danbob999 decides it means". I note that you have yet to objectively define "deal" or explain its relevance to anything we've been discussing.

      Yes. And when you buy gas, or buy service from a delivery company, you make the choice to add more CO2 to the atmosphere. A small part of that cost will be assumed by you. But a much larger amount will be assumed by the rest of the world, and this is what we call an externality.

      It's an externality because the rest of the world didn't participate in my transaction. Similarly, cheaper or more expensive oil can result in near universally cheaper or more expensive goods and services even when the agent doesn't do anything with oil or its derivative products directly. That's an externality as well by definition since the beneficiaries didn't participate in the trading or use of fuel and thus did not voluntarily incur the cost or benefit of the pricing of oil-derived fuels.

    180. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      The cost of all goods include the cost of transportation. When you pay for an apple, you pay for pesticide, oil, transport, the retailer's accountant and a whole bunch of stuff whether you like it or not and these are not externalities, these are part of the voluntary trade, no matter if you are aware of the details or not.
      Negative externalities of the apple include pollution that the rest of the world incurs because of the burning of oil for the transportation of that apple. Positives externalities include the beautiful views of an orchard.
      Externalities are not related to price. Cheap oil has the same externalities as expensive oil. Externalities are related to its production and burning in your car. Not to the price you pay at the pump.

    181. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      The cost of all goods include the cost of transportation. When you pay for an apple, you pay for pesticide, oil, transport, the retailer's accountant and a whole bunch of stuff whether you like it or not and these are not externalities, these are part of the voluntary trade, no matter if you are aware of the details or not.

      No, it doesn't work that way. You already included a number of externalities. The retailer's accountant, for example, often is employed to insure compliance with tax codes and employment regulation. The marginal cost of the labor required to deal with that is an externality.

      For oil, similarly, the various goods and services that the apple grower uses which are not directly tied to the purchase of your apple, also make the apple a little bit cheaper. That's an externality of oil which directly changes the price of the apple. Similar, because the apple is cheaper or more expensive, you may be able to offer your goods and services (eg, your labor) at a cheaper price or forced to offer at a more expensive price . And you can purchase more or less of other goods and services that you consume.

      Externalities are not related to price. Cheap oil has the same externalities as expensive oil. Externalities are related to its production and burning in your car. Not to the price you pay at the pump.

      This is deeply flawed reasoning. The price of oil due to its prevalent use throughout human society creates substantial externalities just on that basis alone.

    182. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Externalities are not related to price.

      As an aside, the more (or less) something costs, the less (or more) incentive there is to produce it. Higher supply results in a price swing in the opposite direction due to supply and demand. That right there creates a positive correlation between externalities incurred by something and the price offered for that thing.

    183. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      You already included a number of externalities. The retailer's accountant, for example, often is employed to insure compliance with tax codes and employment regulation. The marginal cost of the labor required to deal with that is an externality.

      There you go again. No it isn't. It's required by law to pay taxes just as it is required to pay your employees and not kill them at the end of the day. Just because it would be cheaper if this law didn't exist doesn't make it an externality. I don't think you will ever understand what an externality is. There isn't much more I can do here. I understand that you will never want to lower CO2 emissions if you don't get what an externality is.

    184. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      No it isn't. It's required by law to pay taxes just as it is required to pay your employees and not kill them at the end of the day.

      So you're saying it's not strictly a negative externality. The moral content or intent of a policy is completely irrelevant to whether it creates an externality or not.

      Just because it would be cheaper if this law didn't exist doesn't make it an externality.

      Of course not. It's incurred without choice by the employer, that's what makes it an externality.

      I don't think you will ever understand what an externality is. There isn't much more I can do here. I understand that you will never want to lower CO2 emissions if you don't get what an externality is.

      Funny, doesn't look like that from my end. While I grant someone seems to have a problem understanding what an externality is, I find it more interesting that merely characterizing this massive synergy of fossil fuels, energy, and transportation with the entirety of an economy, as not an externality is sufficient to dismiss it.

      This strikes me as comparable to the argument from authority fallacy you presented earlier, created by presenting "credible, peer-reviewed", but highly biased predictions as if they were the best possible guesses out there.

      Sure, if we ignore contrary evidence, like what I've remarked on (such as ignoring the positive externalities of fossil fuel use, proper time value of money, or the oter systematic biases contributing to portraying radical carbon dioxide emission reduction as something with low costs and large benefits) then sure, we can reach agreement on this. It's just not worth my effort to do so. Nor would it be moral.

    185. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      So you're saying it's not strictly a negative externality. The moral content or intent of a policy is completely irrelevant to whether it creates an externality or not.

      No I am not saying it's not strictly a negative externality. I'm saying it's not an externality at all.

      It's incurred without choice by the employer, that's what makes it an externality.

      Completely wrong again. It's not without choice. The employer has the choice in hiring employees or not. If he does, however, he has to take the whole package, which means, among others, paying a salary. Being forced to pay a salary is not a negative externality to the employer. It's part of the cost of a trade he agrees with (otherwise, he's free not doing that trade). The same goes with filling tax forms. It's part of the costs of operating a business. It's not an externality as you have the choice to operate or not your business.

      Funny, doesn't look like that from my end. While I grant someone seems to have a problem understanding what an externality is, I find it more interesting that merely characterizing this massive synergy of fossil fuels, energy, and transportation with the entirety of an economy, as not an externality is sufficient to dismiss it.

      I haven't dismissed the advantages of oil. They are very important. However they aren't externalities. I am sure there are positives externalities from the consumption of oil. You just didn't find any yet.

      This strikes me as comparable to the argument from authority fallacy you presented earlier, created by presenting "credible, peer-reviewed", but highly biased predictions as if they were the best possible guesses out there.

      You are confusing expert opinion with argument from authority.

      Sure, if we ignore contrary evidence, like what I've remarked on (such as ignoring the positive externalities of fossil fuel use, proper time value of money, or the oter systematic biases contributing to portraying radical carbon dioxide emission reduction as something with low costs and large benefits)

      You wish that evidence existed, but you haven't presented any. No example of any positive externality for oil, no evidence about what would be the "proper" time value of money, and no evidence of other systematic biases.

    186. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      You are confusing expert opinion with argument from authority.

      Not at all. Expert opinion is the most common basis for an argument from authority. Let's look at the three examples you gave, the Stern Review, the Garnaut Climate Change Reviews, and the IPCC's series of assessment reports. The first thing to observe is that the first two reports were funded by politicians with a particular agenda and who happened to need a particular outcome of those reports and for which the reports just happen to deliver on that agenda and need.

      Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair needed a pretext for supporting near future greenhouse gases emission controls. He sets aside public funds for the Stern Review, and (what a coincidence!) the Stern Review just so happens to support his needs of the moment. Same goes for the Garnaut Reviews which happen to fill the same role for former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

      IPCC has long been notorious for providing what pro-climate change propaganda is needed as it is needed. For example, we have the "hockey stick" estimate promulgated in the 2001 Third ASsessment Report, extreme weather in the next assessment, and heating of the oceans in the latest one. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden confidence by considerable narrowing of the temperature forcing of a doubling of carbon dioxide in the next assessment report.

      Each of these reporting sources has consistently exaggerated its conclusions in favor of current carbon dioxide emission reduction. Earlier in this thread, I mentioned the consistent biases of the Stern Review. The Garnaut Reviews are even worse with a claim of only 0.1 to 0.2% of Australia's fossil fuel-dependent GDP lost each year to mitigation policies for AGW. That's ridiculous.

      Meanwhile, the IPCC has long been notorious for exaggerating the impact of AGW while simultaneously downplaying the costs of greenhouse gases emissions reduction. For example, I was told by slashdotter Layzej that the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR) predicted a 0.1 to 0.2 C increase in global mean temperature over the few decades after 2001 (using scenario "IS92a").

      But when I actually looked at the "Summary for Policy Makers" I see claims of larger near future heating for the scenario in question (of 0.1 C to 0.3 C) with the high end of the initial range of increases presented instead as a median value of this new, unjustified range. I also saw that in this Summary the TAR had obsoleted the scenario in question and was using scenarios that presented more aggressive heating.

      In other words, the fine print, which Layzej unearthed was buried deep in the report somewhere, while other, significantly worse and unjustified scenarios were presented for public consumption. Now, that those overly alarmist scenarios are failing, supporters are digging up the hidden, but somewhat more accurate predictions and claiming that the IPCC was right all along.

      This sort of dishonesty and misuse of expert opinion is why I term the whole effort an argument from authority. But don't get me wrong I think there's a lot more fallacies at play here than just argument from authority.

      My view on this is that "expert opinion" and "peer reviewed and published" doesn't outweigh being deliberately wrong.

    187. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by danbob999 · · Score: 1

      My view on this is that "expert opinion" and "peer reviewed and published" doesn't outweigh being deliberately wrong.

      Of course. But you haven't made the demonstration that these reports are wrong. You just make unsubstantiated claims that they are wrong.

    188. Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? by khallow · · Score: 1

      But you haven't made the demonstration that these reports are wrong.

      So what? If there's money for these sorts of games, then there's money for independent examination.

  3. Of course it does! by jeffb+(2.718) · · Score: 4, Funny

    Because the majority said so.

    1. Re:Of course it does! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Truthiness. It works, bitches!

    2. Re:Of course it does! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tell me about it! All those elitist scientists chasing research dollars to further their anti-God agenda by promoting the hoax of evolution. It's impossible for a scientist to go against the establishment on this issue because their research grants will dry up. If that isn't a sign of a conspiracy, I don't know what is. Although the hoax being perpetrated by geologists about the age of the Earth is probably a close second. Just try and get funding for research into a theory that doesn't jive with the poltically-correct belief that the Earth is older than 6,000 years.

    3. Re:Of course it does! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It sounds like the point wasn't to decide whether global warming is real or not. The point seems to have been to stop the bullshit taking up time in the floor of congress pretending that global warming isn't real.

      Next time anything related is discussed and someone starts going off on how there is a "disagreement on the science community" about global warming or some other bullshit, any other senator can point at this resolution and say "we don't care whether someone else disagreed, we agreed that it is real and we'll treat it as such". end of discussion.

      Granted, acknowledging AGW is a much more important step, as it feeds into carbon reduction policies and other laws. But still, one step at a time.

    4. Re:Of course it does! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is exactly why I find the claim that 07 percent of scientists agree with global warming so off putting. Who fucking cares? Since when is science a matter of saying if most think t it is a fact? In fact, innovation comes from the three percent who dismiss accepted consensus.

    5. Re:Of course it does! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Consensus is never relevant to science.

  4. Science by Democracy? by wezelboy · · Score: 2

    I don't think that word means what you think it means.

    Try "Science by Oligarchy".

    1. Re:Science by Democracy? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      And if you actually read the article (yeah, I know), the point isn't about science by democracy, it's about science by consensus. He tells a story where the National Academy of Sciences tried to resolve an astronomical issue by voting on it. He then points out that the vote wouldn't resolve anything....what was needed was to collect more information.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:Science by Democracy? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And if you actually read the article (yeah, I know), the point isn't about science by democracy, it's about science by consensus. He tells a story where the National Academy of Sciences tried to resolve an astronomical issue by voting on it. He then points out that the vote wouldn't resolve anything....what was needed was to collect more information.

      The funny thing is that the deniers demand ever more evidence, and then claim that the resulting cost is created by evil scientists out for the monies.

    3. Re:Science by Democracy? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also, especially the US way, Democracy by Democracy doesn't work either.

      Go figure....

  5. Science and politics are orthogonal by 91degrees · · Score: 1

    The point to the vote wasn't to establish the science. It was to provide an argument to politicians that this issue is real. Poltiicians don't understand science so the argument they use is political.

    A senator may well want to argue that the science is wrong. It's a lot harder to argue that democracy is also wrong.

    Of course we don't like this. Slashdotters like science. Many of us are scientists. This is a terrible way of carrying on, but the important issue is we deal with the environment. If we need to back up our scientific argument with a political one, so be it.

    1. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      at least its not 50.01% deciding that they should swerve 100% over their way.

    2. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm a scientist, but I tend to agree with you about the usual types you see commenting here, just given my perception of the usual content I read.

    3. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      Many of us are scientists.

      Actually, most Slashdotters are High School nerds, dateless college guys, single guys living in their mother's basements with apolitical axe to grind, or trolls poking the first three with a stick.

      I don't think any real scientist would waste their time here.

      Consider yourself poked.

      A little self projection there?

      And yes, there are scientists here.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    4. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Many of us are scientists.

      Actually, most Slashdotters are High School nerds, dateless college guys, single guys living in their mother's basements with apolitical axe to grind, or trolls poking the first three with a stick.

      I don't think any real scientist would waste their time here.

      Consider yourself poked.

      I am a former high school nerd who moved out of his mothers basement and went to MIT, found his calling in biological research, married his college sweetheart who is an AI researcher and a complete self described "Nymphomaniac" YOU INSENSITIVE CLOD!

      I will say that I am poking something and it is not you!

    5. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a lot harder to argue that democracy is also wrong.

      There are more than a few decent critiques of democracy, actually. It has some great merits, but it's not an unalloyed good.

    6. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by 91degrees · · Score: 1

      What I mean is that it's a lot harder for someone who owes their job the the democratic process to argue this without comint across as a hypocrite.

    7. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by PhilHibbs · · Score: 1

      Actually, most Slashdotters are High School nerds, dateless college guys, single guys living in their mother's basements with apolitical axe to grind, or trolls poking the first three with a stick...

      Consider yourself poked.

      I suspect that the latter category also substantially overlaps the first three. Hah, poked you back!

    8. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      You forgot to start your post with "Dear Penthouse Forum,".

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    9. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      If the debate had to be, why did the Democrats decide this had to be a rider to another bill, which by definition does not get debated?

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
    10. Re:Science and politics are orthogonal by MooseMiester · · Score: 1

      Mod up 1000. A rational voice in a click bait article designed entirely to bring out the frenetic climate cut and paste diatribe crowd which I read as "You suck! You suck More! You're and idiot! You're too stupid to live" crap.

      --
      Murphy was an optimist
  6. Science... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... what a crock of shit.

  7. The good thing about it is.. by fortunatus · · Score: 1

    This process does allow senators to go on record with their specific belief positions about climate change.. the details there are interesting.

    1. Re:The good thing about it is.. by JackieBrown · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'd agree with that is the bill was just a vote on whether climate change is real or not. It's attached to another bill.

      The democrats voted in mass for Obama Care. Are you saying that means they agree and support everything in it? Because recent history would prove that wrong.

    2. Re:The good thing about it is.. by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      Interesting thing is that there is no amendment that states GW is a hoax.

    3. Re:The good thing about it is.. by Richard_at_work · · Score: 1

      Does it? Do they get to vote differently to different parts of the bill?

      If the climate change rider was an entirely standalone bill, I would agree with you - but what about those that strongly believe the pipeline is a benefit worth having, but having differing opinions on various riders? In the end, the climate change rider doesn't force anyones hand, so its probably not something that would jeopardise a vote for the entire bill.

      The rider really needed to be its own bill if we are to attach any meaning at all to votes cast.

    4. Re:The good thing about it is.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The democrats voted in mass for Obama Care.

      En masse. Unless they were holding a catholic mass on capitol hill.

    5. Re:The good thing about it is.. by smashin234 · · Score: 1

      Yes, because this is obviously how science is done. You know, where beliefs trump empiricism and where instead of using the boring old scientific method we simply parrot what we believe as if it is sciency.

      Ok, to be serious for just a moment, are you seriously telling us that its interesting what a bunch of idiot politicians believe? That idiot politicians beliefs on a science topic are actually relevant?

    6. Re:The good thing about it is.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      GW wasn't a hoax, he was a cruel joke.

      Oh, wait, there wasn't a B there.

    7. Re:The good thing about it is.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They voted for Obama, so no, nobody voted for Obamacare which was literally Mitt Romney's plan with a few updates.

    8. Re:The good thing about it is.. by DarkOx · · Score: 1

      This is why our system is so messed up. This why the lobbyists and influence vendors have power. This why our laws are written such that not even the people who enact them really know what they mean.

      The reason is voters like you, are willing to let them off the hook. When these guys sign their name to it they need to be accountable for it FULL STOP. You should not let them make excuses like oh well it was must pass....

      No all those democrats who voted for the ACA better be willing to stand up and say proudly "I thought all the giveaways, deceptions, curtailment of individual freedoms, in the ACA were worth it to get something done." If they can't say that than they are not fit to represent you.

      Same with this everyone who voted for this need to either agree with statements on climate, or admit there principle position on scientific integrity is subject to getting even relatively unimportant things done like Keystone XL.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    9. Re:The good thing about it is.. by JackieBrown · · Score: 2

      If the republicans of the past 15 years wanted what a mass gov pushed for his state, they would have passed it when Bush was in office.

      The dems own this.

    10. Re:The good thing about it is.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What's good for a state, isn't always good for the country as a whole. If that were the case, why don't we just dump the entire system of states and put everything in control of the federal government?

    11. Re:The good thing about it is.. by tbannist · · Score: 1

      From what the article said, they were voting on whether to attach the ammendments to the bill.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    12. Re:The good thing about it is.. by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      What you describe is the difference between a statesman and a politician. Sadly we have far too few statesmen.

      --
      Time to offend someone
  8. So what was the result?? by jez9999 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Is it a hoax? I'm on tenterhooks.

    1. Re:So what was the result?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is it a hoax? I'm on tenterhooks.

      I really hope they did vote that way.

      I want the USA to be shamed for our stupidity.

      We are not going to change until we sink so low that people wake up.

      And then there are the retards in Congress. Congressional approval is at its lowest in history and yet, the electorate sent all those retards back in November. Then they are going to bitch about how fucked up Congress is.

      Awwwwww.

      I tried to vote out my incumbents but all my incumbents were Republicans (Yes, my congressional delegation is one of them that has caused all the BS these last few years and they are back plus an even bigger retard) and the Reps told my mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, sound bite loving neighbors that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for Obamas policies.

      My neighbors, unwilling to spend a few minutes looking at the other candidates or even educating themselves on Obama's policies, went in their pickup trucks and mindlessly voted (majority) for the Republicans - the same assholes who they hate.

      We the people deserve our shitty government because we make decisions based on sound bites and corporate for profit propaganda.

      Retards.

    2. Re:So what was the result?? by Zocalo · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Is climate change real and not a hoax?: Yes (98:1) - Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) voted "Yes"

      Do humans contribute significantly to climate change?: No (50:49) - All the Dems plus a few Reps votes "Yes". Key to that result however is that before the vote Sen. Lisa Murkoswki (R-AK) took exception to the word "significantly", which I actually think is a reasonable point given the available data that tries to quantify our contribution to the changes.

      The question that remains unanswered is how many of those 50 that voted "No" in the second vote would have voted differently if the contentious "significantly" wasn't present. That's almost certainly more than zero, so it appears that the disconnect between what US politicians and scientists believe about climate change and AGW might not be as far apart as some are portraying it, and might not even exist at all.

      --
      UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
    3. Re:So what was the result?? by Kierthos · · Score: 1

      Most Congressional districts are, thanks to gerrymandering and the advantage of incumbency, safe districts. It pretty much requires a Congresscritter being caught in a scandal, choosing to retire, dying in office, or really cheesing off your electorate for the position to change hands. (Yes, I'm simplifying it.)

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
    4. Re:So what was the result?? by Nemyst · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If you remove significantly from the second question, then it loses all meaning. Humans could contribute 0.000001% and the answer would still be "yes", but they'd consider it not to be a problem because it's so small.

    5. Re:So what was the result?? by wile_e_wonka · · Score: 2

      Personally, I think voting is a great way to determine truth. When that doesn't work, generally a wrestling match does.

    6. Re:So what was the result?? by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They're not even debating the right question: Are humans causing a climate change that will cause us considerable harm?

    7. Re:So what was the result?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Is climate change real and not a hoax?: Yes (98:1) - Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) voted "Yes"

      Amendment Number: S.Amdt. 29 to S.Amdt. 2 to S. 1 (Keystone XL Pipeline Act)
      Statement of Purpose: To express the sense of the Senate that climate change is real and not a hoax.
      Vote Counts:
          YEAs 98
          NAYs 1
          Not Voting 1
      Wicker (R-MS), Nay
      https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=114&session=1&vote=00010

      Do humans contribute significantly to climate change?: No (50:49) - All the Dems plus a few Reps votes "Yes".

      Amendment Number: S.Amdt. 58 to S.Amdt. 2 to S. 1 (Keystone XL Pipeline Act)
      Statement of Purpose: To express the sense of Congress regarding climate change.
      Vote Counts:
          YEAs 50
          NAYs 49
          Not Voting 1
      https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=114&session=1&vote=00012

    8. Re:So what was the result?? by TwoEyedJack · · Score: 0

      Um, actually congress critters who voted for PPACA have been thrown out in droves.

    9. Re:So what was the result?? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Are humans causing a climate change that will cause us considerable harm?

      The answer is an obvious "yes", but via things like desertification, deforestation, and resource mismanagement not global warming.

    10. Re:So what was the result?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem is most environmentalism has nothing to do with harm against humans, it's about protecting some non-existent default state of the planet & climate. I think most "deniers" are unfairly characterized by being anti-science when they are being more pro-human than the radicals. We have a right to exist. We will impact climate and the planet. Our goal should be to co-exist responsibly without denying basic Rights of humans.

    11. Re:So what was the result?? by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And that is a question not even scientists are sure of....scientists aren't even sure how much warming CO2 causes. So it's not surprising congress gets confused.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    12. Re:So what was the result?? by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      Festivus?

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    13. Re:So what was the result?? by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      It is almost expected that (D) are scandalous. Boxer (D) of California was caught in a huge financial scandal, but since "everyone" was doing it, it was okay, and she is still in office. Bill and Hillary were caught in many scandals over the years and yet she is the top (D) presidential candidate right now (or was it just a a vast right wing conspiracy?). Remember Teddy Kennedy and Mary Jo? There is, however, never a Smidgeon of evidence of any wrong doing.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    14. Re:So what was the result?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sigh! When any question becomes dear to ideological groups, truth is the first casualty. The scientific establishment "voted" that germ theory was not the cause of disease but rather the Miasma that came from rotting materials. Experiments proved this since disease went down then rotting materials were removed from the environment. If you read the pro and con global warming reports carefully, you will find that the same data sets are used to prove opposite conclusions. Indeed, even on sides that ideologically agree (one way or the other) the conclusions are wildly different in reports concerning the same measurable phenomena. If they cannot even agree on simple measurements such as the ocean temperatures, then all hope of getting real scientific data is quenched.

      Who cares if they voted? The truth will emerge, as it will, regardless. Environmental alarmists persist even though all the predictions from the 1990's regarding what would be the case now were wrong. (Florida is not now a series of small islands for one small example.) The anti-warming groups likewise predicted things that did not come to pass such as weather patterns remaining unchanged. History tells us that weather is not constant and climates change all the time. I, for one, am glad the glaciers have gone home for a little while. In about 4,000 years, we will all no doubt be encouraged to generate more greenhouse gasses when the glaciers dare to return.

    15. Re:So what was the result?? by scamper_22 · · Score: 1

      We're actually not that far off.

      It's very interesting actually going through the questions from the most agreeable to the contentious. I like how you stated it, but I will expand.

      Is climate change real and not a hoax? (few disagree)
      Do humans contribute to it (probably 90/10)
      Do humans contribute significantly to it (probably 50/50)
      Should we take action to counter it (probably 40/60)
      Should we take significant action to counter it? (???)
      Should we impose a carbon tax? (???)
      Should we prepare for raising water levels (???) ...

      All these are separate questions. The problem is just how linked they are in politics.

      For some, the link is direct.
      Do you believe climate change is real? If yes.... then carbon tax!
      Disagree with a carbon tax,then you must not believe in climate change.

      On science, a lot of people don't actually disagree. it's actually become the linking of policies to scientific reality that infects and distorts science.

    16. Re:So what was the result?? by wile_e_wonka · · Score: 1

      I've always wondered the purpose of the wrestling in Festivus. It all comes together now.

    17. Re:So what was the result?? by cellocgw · · Score: 1

      Personally, I think voting is a great way to determine truth. When that doesn't work, generally a wrestling match does.

      Or better yet, each side chooses a champion. The Mountain vs. The Viper. Which one do you vote for?

      --
      https://app.box.com/WitthoftResume Code: https://github.com/cellocgw
    18. Re:So what was the result?? by jfengel · · Score: 1

      We don't really get to ask that question. It's subsumed by the existing question about whether we're contributing significantly. Since the answer turned out to be "no", there's no point in asking the next question.

      Mind you, "no" is a stupid answer, but that's the point. There's no way to discuss the right question, because we're still too busy being stupid about the wrong question.

    19. Re:So what was the result?? by Ferretman · · Score: 1

      No evidence either way as of yet I'm afraid.

      Ferret

      --
      Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
    20. Re:So what was the result?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      297 million of the last 300 million years had no polar caps, and we are in an interstadial warming between glaciations.

      Even 100% release of organic carbon would not affect the long term picture.

      As to short term, do you want your next ice age in 25,000 years or 50,000?

      The Earth is passing through an ice age known as the quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial period. This period would normally be expected to end in about 25,000 years.[34] However, the increased rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere by humans may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at least 50,000–130,000 years from now. On the other hand, a global warming period of finite duration (based on the assumption that fossil fuel use will cease by the year 2200) will probably only impact the glacial period for about 5,000 years. Thus, a brief period of global warming induced through a few centuries worth of greenhouse gas emission would only have a limited impact in the long term.[10]

  9. Faux science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Global warming has been proven false - now they have decided to change the game up and call it climate change. The bottom line is the climate is always changing and it's absolutely disgusting that there is a group of people that try to use that to scare everyone into doing what they want them to do. These people should be rounded up and prosecuted and all the people that have lost their jobs and insurance due to onerous government regulations and malicious intrusion and monitoring should be allowed to bring lawsuits against them and strip them of every last thing that they own. It's sad that government feels the need to deceive the people like this. It's even sadder that a group of unethical scientists are in collusion with them.

    1. Re:Faux science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      These are the same people who would have been the puritanical christians of another age. You shouldn't do anything enjoyable or be comfortable, because that's the way to heaven.

    2. Re:Faux science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Global warming has been proven false - now they have decided to change the game up and call it climate change. The bottom line is the climate is always changing and it's absolutely disgusting that there is a group of people that try to use that to scare everyone into doing what they want them to do. These people should be rounded up and prosecuted and all the people that have lost their jobs and insurance due to onerous government regulations and malicious intrusion and monitoring should be allowed to bring lawsuits against them and strip them of every last thing that they own. It's sad that government feels the need to deceive the people like this. It's even sadder that a group of unethical scientists are in collusion with them.

      because republican Jesus (Also known as the Anti-Obama) said so!

      Dick!

    3. Re:Faux science by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      That's not "climate". That's "weather".

      And you are an idiot.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
  10. Then by rossdee · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Its just as well that we don't live in a democracy

    1. Re:Then by leonbev · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I'm not sure what you would call the US Government nowadays. Probably more of an Oligarchy of wealthy business owners and campaign contributors telling our "Democratically Elected" Legislative bodies what bills to vote on.

    2. Re:Then by xigxag · · Score: 2

      Sigh. Not this again.

      We don't live in a direct democracy. We do live in a representative democracy which also happens to be a republic.

      --
      There are two kinds of people: 1) those who start arrays with one and 1) those who start them with zero.
    3. Re:Then by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      It's part plutocracy, part republic, and part democracy.

  11. A question for all the"deniers". by Viol8 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Just what exactly do you expect will happen if you almost double the amount of the atmospheres main persistent infra red absorber? And if you think it will have no effect can you please explain why you think this.

    I'm just curious because I'm sure your stand is based on sound scientific reasoning rather than a rather pathetic attempt at self justification for a "lets carry on business as usual I don't care" approach to the issue which unfortunately is a standard human response to a lot of big problems.

    1. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just what exactly do you expect will happen if you almost double the amount of the atmospheres main persistent infra red absorber?

      Water Vapor is atmosphere's main persistent infra red absorber.

    2. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by itzly · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Except for the persistent part.

    3. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Because we have had colder temperatures with more CO2 in the past and the earth is primarily a self regulating eco-system leading to stability.

      Climate alarmists would have you believe the climate we had recently is closer to perfect and like a boulder balanced on top of a mountain where in any change could cause it all to topple. In reality it's more like a boulder in a valley.

      We still have NO credible numbers as to what percent of temperature is MAN MADE and what is natural cycle.

      If you run the CO2 vs Temperature prediction (simulation) charts backwards in time they do not level out and reflect the known history, they show a warped negative value suggesting the effect multiplier values being used are inflated.

      The whole thing is based on flawed computer simulation.

      Have you ever written a simulation? I have. You have to use simplification of calculations and use predetermined result tables to avoid doing the calculations to get any kind of speed in result return. This causes deviance from true simulation. The only way to accurately simulate the real thing is to build the real thing.

    4. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Except for the persistent part.

      Are you claiming the measurements showing the amount of atmospheric CO2 is rising are incorrect?

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    5. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by itzly · · Score: 1

      No, I was responding to the other comment about water vapor.

    6. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      More CO2 means that plants will grow faster and then there will eventually be less CO2.

      Presently, the earth is in an interglacial period. It is warming up. It has been warming up for 10000 years. It is not going to stop warming up anytime soon, but eventually, in another 10000 to 20000 years, there will be another glacial period. Why? Nobody knows, but there is one every 20000 to 30000 years and there is nothing we can do about it.

    7. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by TheRaven64 · · Score: 2

      Because we have had colder temperatures with more CO2 in the past

      This is true, but those times also had significantly higher ice concentrations. Paint a big chunk of the ground (and sea area) white and you'll see the

      the earth is primarily a self regulating eco-system leading to stability

      If you can say this with a straight face, then you have no idea of the history of the climate.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    8. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We have had an atmosphere full of ashes that happened to kill a lot of prehistoric animals and the earth recovered. So no worries. Just let the smoke out! The earth will recover! No need to care about anything really. I'm sure earth would recover from a full blown nuclear war as well. Let's have one!

    9. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Check again. GP wasn't talking about CO2. H2O.

    10. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Tranzistors · · Score: 3, Interesting

      By "self regulating eco-system" AC meant that Earth always has a climate. And at some point (indefinite future) it will stabilize. Did snowball Earth (if such existed) have climate? Yes. Was it stable? Sure, for a while. So there you have it.

    11. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      Have you ever written a simulation? I have. You have to use simplification of calculations and use predetermined result tables to avoid doing the calculations to get any kind of speed in result return. This causes deviance from true simulation. The only way to accurately simulate the real thing is to build the real thing.

      As someone who has written a number of simulations, you are full of shit. You certainly don't use lookup tables to determine results of the thing that you are calculating; if you have a well behaved submodel that is part of the larger simulation, you can use precomputed results but that is completely different. Further, you can get the simulations that they are running; here's one: GISS GCM E. They are 'true simulations' in any meaningful definition of the word; they are not using "predetermined result tables" to determine the results of the simulation.

    12. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by smashin234 · · Score: 1

      Here is the corollary to this for those who believe in CO2 catastrophe:

      Never before in the history of our planet has CO2 increase lead to catastrophe or anything as bad as that is predicted by computer models. So in essence, my point is as follows:

      If CO2 is not a driver of climate as suggested by paleo data going back millions and even billions of years, why do so many people believe that this "unprecedented" event is going to happen?

      It takes a belief and faith that such a thing is going to happen. We can argue about computer models about the future climate and all sorts of things about them, but the main point I am trying to make is this:

      What makes TODAY so special that the climate is suddenly going to go into an irreversitable tail-spin?

       

    13. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Oh, sorry.

      I didn't realise there was an AC comment inbetween those two.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    14. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just what exactly do you expect will happen if you almost double the amount of the atmospheres main persistent infra red absorber

      Do you mean water vapour? I don't think anyone is talking about that?

      OHhhh, you mean carbon dioxide, probably. Are we talking about doubling it now? Because it's nowhere near double. And it's not persisent - it's involved in something called the 'carbon cycle' which all life on our planet depends on.

      Raising CO2 levels certainly HAS had an effect... to a point. You see, the effect of increasing CO2 on IR absorption and re-emission is logarithmic - the more CO2 you put in, the less and less of an effect it'll have. It's probably the #1 reason the warming effect appears to have plateaued in the last several years, even though CO2 continues to rise at a fairly linear rate.

    15. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by BCGlorfindel · · Score: 1

      Except for the persistent part.

      There is a difference between long lived and persistent. CO2 that enters the atmosphere will stay there much longer, sure. Water vapor will only stay a couple of days, sure. Despite water vapor leaving the atmosphere so quickly though, it's also entering the atmosphere as quickly as it leaves. It's impact and effect on absorption of radiation thus persistently accounts for 60% of all GHG absorption and CO2 less than half that according to the American Geological society.

    16. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sure your stand is based on sound scientific reasoning rather than a rather pathetic attempt at self justification for a "lets carry on business as usual I don't care" approach to the issue which unfortunately is a standard human response to a lot of big problems.

      How about a response based on data? The IPCC first, second, third and fourth assessment reports were based on 15 years of weather data as being statistically significant. So let's look at the last 15 years.

      CO2 increase of just under 8%: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:2000/to:2015/offset/plot/esrl-co2/from:2000/to:2015/trend
      The corresponding global temperature change: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2000/to:2015/offset/plot/rss/from:2000/to:2015/trend

      Just what exactly do you expect will happen if you almost double the amount of the atmospheres main persistent infra red absorber?

      In the last 15 years, the average atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa has gone from 0.0368% to 0.0397%. What did you expect to happen?

    17. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by ballpoint · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Just what exactly do you expect will happen if you almost double the amount of the atmospheres main persistent infra red absorber? And if you think it will have no effect can you please explain why you think this.

      I'm just curious because I'm sure your stand is based on sound scientific reasoning rather than a rather pathetic attempt at self justification for a "lets carry on business as usual I don't care" approach to the issue which unfortunately is a standard human response to a lot of big problems.

      The mean temperature may rise 0.6C. Could be marginally less due to negative feedbacks (hitherto underestimated cloud cover) and other random causes (more than average volcanoes popping, the sun having a fit, an asteroid impact...), could be marginally more due to positive feedbacks (water vapor amplification, hitherto belied by the facts) and other random causes (less than average volcanoes popping, the sun having a fit, ...). Let's assume another doubling follows after that before we can't pull any (hydro)carbon out of the ground anymore, because it's not worth to get. We're looking at 1.2C worst case, coming from a post-ice-age low.

      I'm old enough to have lived through a significant part of the warming period, and experienced and wise enough to see and comprehend that its supposed negative effects are ranging from undetectable to utterly insignificant and easily adapted to, and will continue to remain so.

      AGW biggest problems are its side effects: destructive interference by an idiocracy of dogooders, busybodies, recycled leftists and politicians and the time lost by more sensible people having to push back. Look at the cost to the society due to loss of productivity by this discussion alone.

      --
      Flourescent (adj): smelling like ground wheat.
    18. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by itzly · · Score: 3, Informative

      The mean temperature may rise 0.6C.

      Current state-of-the-art climate models span a range of 2.6–4.1 C, most clustering around 3 C, according to http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~ste...

    19. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I disagree. What is the unit of resolution used when calculating energy transfer from block space to block space? 1 millimeter? 1 meter ? 10 meters ? 100 meters?
      In any scenario other than molecule to molecule tracking of energy transfer there are assumptions being made as to what direction the energy is moving limited by the number of directions available in the grid map. With a variance of accuracy of .01% In only 10 grid blocks of energy movement tracking we have a compounding error rate of up to 1%. This is significant when the accuracy range of measurement against reality is +/- 1.7 degree Celsius.
      The results of the simulations are meaningless unless you have absolute Faith that the fudge variables are true.

    20. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by ballpoint · · Score: 2

      Then the facts of the long-time trend - even after all the massaging, tweaking and adjusting of the historic record - being near or below the lower error bars of said cluster are proving previous and current state-of-the-art climate models very wrong.

      --
      Flourescent (adj): smelling like ground wheat.
    21. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by itzly · · Score: 3, Informative

      First of all, we haven't doubled CO2 yet. We've only added about 35%. Secondly, the 3C sensitivity is the steady state number. Right now, we're still in flux, as the oceans take considerable time to warm up. So, even if we stopped adding CO2 now, the temperature would continue to rise for decades.

    22. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Alsee · · Score: 1

      earth is primarily a self regulating eco-system leading to stability

      Gaia is living, breathing, self stabilizing organism. Gaia actively maintains optimum conditions for live to thrive. If the sun fluctuates hotter, Gaia will keep us cool. If the sun fluctuates cooler, Gaia will keep us warm. We have released two quadrillion pounds (2,000,000,000,000,000) of CO2 into the atmosphere and the laws of physics say that will trap heat.... and Gaia will.... umm I dunno... but Gaia will do it's super-smart-Gaia-thing to to actively counter it and keep us in a loving protective embrace of shielded stability. If we have a nuclear war, Gaia will cleanse the environment and protect us from that nasty radiation-stuff. Gaia loves all life, gaia loves us and protects us. Gaia loves broadway shows and long walks on the beach. Gaia has profiles on eHarmony.com and JDate.com.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
    23. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why does the human element even matter besides simply being a jerk about it? Why not say the climate is changing and we will need to adapt or climate engineer? Far more people would be less threatened by that prospect that being told they are to blame for everything. Why are so many climate advocates all about negative reinforcement?

    24. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by dave420 · · Score: 1

      It's never irreversible, the question is will we be around to (and capable of) stopping it? And if we are, what damage would the changes in climate do to humanity?

      If you can't see the one particularly interesting difference between millions of years ago and today, you really should sit down in a quiet room and think.

    25. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      double the amount of the atmospheres main persistent infra red absorber

      Make it rain more? CO2 isn't the main Greenhouse gas, water vapor is. And it isn't even close.

      But this is the problem with AGW proponents who don't even know what they are talking about, they come off as stupid ignorant parrots.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    26. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by tbannist · · Score: 1

      It's important to understand that the primary determinant of the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is temperature, which means that other GHG gases impact the amount of water vapour and thus amplify their own effect. That's why water vapour doesn't get much consideration: it has a short cycle, it acts primarily as a feedback system, and have no feasible ways to directly increase or decrease it, unlike the other GHGs like CO2 and methane.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    27. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by tulcod · · Score: 1

      Since this seems to be an honest question, let me attempt to give an honest answer.

      I am not a climate change "denier" per se, but if I see a news item about this or that climate change report, I will raise my eyebrows. Not so much because of the report, but because of the way the results are /presented/: for example, a common reasoning is "more CO2 means more infra red absorption, and we've seen an increase in CO2, and we are also helping cause that increase, ergo we should get rid of all cars today."

      Although somewhat exaggerated, many climate change news articles have a hint of this kind of a presentation. And although I like to believe the actual reports themselves are all objective and scientific, they are often presented in a non-scientific style (if only in the introduction/conclusion), which, for me, reduces the scientific value.

      Why? Because I did not do the research. I did not uniformly select measurement locations, I did not record the data, I did not process the statistics. So all I have to base my judgement on is the presentation, and honestly, climate change is one of those sciences that screws up in this respect every once in a while (psychology, sociology and artificial intelligence are three more such sciences).

      So no, I am not convinced that us driving around in cars causes the world to flood. Nor am I convinced that Wiles' 1994 proof of Fermat's Last Theorem is correct.

      That does not take away the fact that I know of many other reasons that I would like to see CO2 emissions decrease - if indirect reasons. E.g., it would stabilize the economy and make us independent of weird nations like the Arabic oil states. And we would no longer need to worry about the amount of oil we should save for later use. And it would probably positively affect the air quality in cities if we'd switch to e.g. electric vehicles (and perhaps reduce noise). And /maybe/ there is also some value in all the climate change stories, but to me this is secondary since I cannot assess the value of it.

    28. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Interesting you use an example of extreme global cooling as a stable point for a global warming argument. Wouldn't a Venusian atmosphere be a better example of a possible stable point when one is arguing for unchecked global warming being possible?

    29. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Venus and Earth atmospheres are too similar, that is a major reason to doubt the AGW-ers know what they are talking about. Just compare the temperature at the same pressure levels rather than at the surface.

    30. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It doesn't matter if you think there will be no negative effects from climate change.

      CO2 emission must be drastically slowed, soon, or absolute catastrophe awaits: If the oceans acidify at the rate they're going, literally the entire ocean ecosystem is going to collapse like a house of cards midcentury because diatoms will not be able to grow shells, and that is basically 100% because of us raising the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. There's no "but other feedback mechanisms..." here, it's the exact same chemistry that's used to carbonate soda.

    31. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by BCGlorfindel · · Score: 1

      It's important to understand that the primary determinant of the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is temperature, which means that other GHG gases impact the amount of water vapour and thus amplify their own effect. That's why water vapour doesn't get much consideration: it has a short cycle, it acts primarily as a feedback system, and have no feasible ways to directly increase or decrease it, unlike the other GHGs like CO2 and methane.

      That's what the textbook says. The distinction between feedbacks and forcings is a largely arbitrary adoption to ease calculation and prediction of an extremely complex physical system. It's the same reason that water vapour and clouds are treated as entirely independent variables as well. In an ideal world with unlimited CPU power, we'd just simulate water vapour molecules and their energy would dictate their state and clouds would form naturally. We lack the CPU power so we've broken them apart to something we attempt to simulate. The problem is they ALL interact in a complicated way and verifying predictions on something with that many dials is hard. It makes plasma physics models look trivial, simplistic and basically fool proof. In practice, how many plasma physicists have great confidence in a generalized simulation of a brand new, never before tried plasma configuration? Until they can build a parallel real world machine and match variables, they have very little confidence. Without fail, they constantly need to revise the models after comparing to real world models. That is in a plasma, where we KNOW, with great certainty, the rules of interaction between all the particles in the box.

      What does that have to do with the overall contribution of water vapour to the greenhouse effect? Well, it means that we shouldn't downplay or dismiss that water vapour, at any given moment, is responsible for trapping 60%+ of the radiation that is captured by the greenhouse effect. Simply classifying it as an integer feedback also includes a laundry list of assumptions about it's behaviour that we have no reason to believe is true. The most glaring of which being cloud formation and the inherent complexity of predicting it.

      When we agree that our simulations of water vapour feedback(complete with clouds) has a lot of uncertainty I think that's important. Sure, in models it's a feedback and when we run a model, we can get good results with that feedback dial really small. That hardly seems to me a compelling argument that we've definitively shown it is bounded by that. If you try and model a plasma, and you can get it all working really well modelling only your electrons, you've done great work. You can not claim though that adding an equal number of ions is now easily predictable and you know the bounds of how it will alter your plasma. That's a bad joke, but a lot climate advocates too far away from the modelling layer seem to try and tell it straight faced as proven fact :(.

    32. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The whole thing is based on flawed computer simulation.

      False. It's based on simple radiative physics.

      Saying climate science is wrong because the models don't produce the right answers is like saying Relativity is wrong because Kerbal Space Program doesn't get the precession of Mercury right. You have the dependency backwards and you're ignoring the actual evidence.

      But besides that, you seem to have the idea that if a computer model is at all inaccurate then it is completely worthless, which is not so. A zero-atmosphere climate model will allow you to calculate Earth's black-body temperature. A single-slab model will get you within spitting distance of the Earth's measured global average temperature. Modeling a layered column of air will let you see how heat and radiation are transferred from the ground to the upper atmosphere or space, and this can be used to predict that CO2 actually cools the upper atmosphere (which has been observed).

      The question isn't whether these or any models are completely accurate, it's whether they are accurate enough for the domain they're trying to model — and the answer either way has nothing to do with the validity of the science involved.

    33. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I know that twice of 0.01 is 0.02. That doesn't necessarily mean 0.02 is a big number.

      I also know that I saw a comparison of temperature recording between somewhere in the 1980's and the 2010's, and the difference was, at maximum, 2 degrees.

      With numbers like that, it doesn't look like we're going to be in any trouble for a few hundred years, at which point I'd wager we have the technology to deal with the problem without crippling our economy.

    34. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Viol8 · · Score: 1

      "CO2 isn't the main Greenhouse gas, water vapor is. And it isn't even close."

      Thats why I said "persistent". And water vapour sinply acts in a feedback loop for CO2. Its positive and negative effects - cloud reflectivity vs IR absorbtion - tend to cancel out.

      "they come off as stupid ignorant parrots."

      Perhaps look in the mirror. After you've learned to read properly.

    35. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is completely relative when the Climate alarmists are pointing at SimCity results and saying see! See! were all going to die unless you raise a trillion in taxes a year to address this issue. Ohh and by the way, The Sim says you industrial nations need to compensate the smaller nations for their lost GDP since they had a typhoon last year and that is obviously due to global warming.

    36. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Would MOD UP the above if I could.

      When we agree that our simulations of water vapour feedback(complete with clouds) has a lot of uncertainty I think that's important. Sure, in models it's a feedback and when we run a model, we can get good results with that feedback dial really small. That hardly seems to me a compelling argument that we've definitively shown it is bounded by that. If you try and model a plasma, and you can get it all working really well modelling only your electrons, you've done great work. You can not claim though that adding an equal number of ions is now easily predictable and you know the bounds of how it will alter your plasma. That's a bad joke, but a lot climate advocates too far away from the modelling layer seem to try and tell it straight faced as proven fact

    37. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because
      1. It allows them to exercise control for the perceived benefit of us all
      and
      2. Collect money (tribute) at the point of a gun (taxes) in the name of protecting us all.

    38. Re:A question for all the"deniers". by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Last year's IPCC report showed a rise by 2100 of about 1.5C in many plausible scenarios and over 2C in some. If you're not going to pay attention to the scientists, I really have no respect for your opinion and arguments.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  12. Its about allocation of funding dollars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Debate on scientific endeavors does work, because the primary purpose of congress is to fund various programs. Climate change debate in the political realm is all about transferring wealth from other productive areas of the economy. For arguments sake I'll agree there is climate change, and I'll agree to pay a few hundred million of our tax dollars for it, but no more. If you want to spent billions - well then, you've just discovered where the real debate is, and why this is going on in congress. I don't think it's as important as you think it is in dollar terms.

    We can also argue about what's causing it, but at the end of the day it's about how many resources get allocated to doing something about it. Some of us think it's a fake issue to reallocate dollars into pet projects. It has happened before. What if we spend the billions and the next 10 years are the coldest on record? Will we get our money back or will we have to fund a new project to deal with global cooling?

    1. Re:Its about allocation of funding dollars by itzly · · Score: 2

      What if we wean our economy off of fossil fuels for nothing ?

    2. Re:Its about allocation of funding dollars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We starve a few billion people, no big deal.

    3. Re:Its about allocation of funding dollars by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 2

      Let me know when you have something viable (politically, economically) that has energy density of fossil fuels, that is also carbon neutral. Right now, (this moment) there is nothing even close. When oil prices increase there will be a point when it is viable, until then ... good luck.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    4. Re:Its about allocation of funding dollars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What if we spend the trillions and the next 10 years are the coldest on record? Will we get our money back or will we have to fund a new project to deal with global cooling?

  13. A brave new world by pesho · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Used to be that in a democracy we will weight the facts and then vote on a decision. Now it seems we live in a Yakov Smirnoff joke were we make the decision and then vote on the facts. Except it is not Soviet Russia...

    1. Re:A brave new world by Kierthos · · Score: 1

      That's assuming that each Congresscritter actually makes up their own mind, rather than being told what the party line is going to be on an issue.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
    2. Re:A brave new world by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: 1

      Used to be that in a democracy we will weight the facts and then vote on a decision.

      Huh? That's never been the case.

    3. Re:A brave new world by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In Soviet Russia climate changes you.

    4. Re:A brave new world by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Used to be that in a democracy we will weight the facts and then vote on a decision. Now it seems we live in a Yakov Smirnoff joke were we make the decision and then vote on the facts. Except it is not Soviet Russia...

      Just following the lead of the IPCC. Agree on the Summary, then change the science to match.

    5. Re:A brave new world by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In what democracy?

  14. Who'd have thought it... by GoddersUK · · Score: 2

    ...science relies on evidence and is not swayed by what I, arbitrary authorities or consensus believes. But this goes both ways:

    Now I'm not familiar with the US vote. It does seem reasonable, as policy makers and legislators are going to have to respond to climate change in their legislation, that they decide whether they buy the arguments for it or not. And given that the US uses a democratic framework for legislating it doesn't seem unreasonable that the legislature uses a democratic vote to take such an opinion collectively.

    You see, that's the great thing about science. It's true, they can't just vote it away. But it's not an authority - you can't demand congress address climate change just because the men in white coats say so - you have to address evidence based, logically sound arguments to them. And your opponents can respond with arguments of their own. And the adjudicator has to choose between them.

    If you think that no one has the right to challenge the sanctity of the holy scientific truth then you're just as bad as the politician who thinks they can vote objective reality away.

    So this vote may be stupid (or it may not be), but, inherently speaking, a group voting on how to collectively respond to some argument isn't necessarily.

    1. Re:Who'd have thought it... by Akratist · · Score: 1

      Your response is pretty reasonable, but unfortunately, the American political and media climate is sprinting headlong into the "crazy zone," where most discourse is viewed through one political lens or another. Simply by stating that you want to see what science says about a subject can be taken to mean that you are a closet Marxist. Being skeptical of something that is a widely-held position means that you're a tinfoil hat wearer. The environment here is so hyper-charged that any kind of reasonable discussion is the except to how things are usually done. In the end, it means that any serious issue can't be effectively addressed, because any sort of compromise is automatically seen as a loss, not simply trying to take care of a situation.

    2. Re:Who'd have thought it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...science relies on evidence and is not swayed by what I, arbitrary authorities or consensus believes.

      Oh, dont confuse climate change "science" as true objective science. The climate computer models require many guesses for variables that we dont know, and if you "guess" correctly then you will get additional funding to continue your research ( defining "research" as paying rent, paying bills, food on the table, etc ).

      Both gloom-and-doom as well as pie-in-the-sky "science" motivates investors, either through fear or warm fuzzy feelings.

  15. This had nothing to do with science by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The US Senate just voted on whether climate change is a hoax, knowing full well that debates or votes don't change what is or isn't scientifically true or valid.

    You think this vote had anything to do with science? This is about power and policy. It's about pandering to a group of voters. It's about setting a stage for the next election. It's about getting votes. It has nothing to do with science and everything to do with power.

    Science should inform public policy but nothing forces politicians to actually care what scientists tell them if the facts diverge from political needs. If a politician needs to proclaim that gravity is a hoax to get votes then they will do that and do it with a straight face.

    1. Re:This had nothing to do with science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You just explained the entire debate - on both sides of the issue. Its about power and policy prejudice. The "facts" are just pretexts and rationale/justification to support your choosen policy preference.

    2. Re:This had nothing to do with science by goombah99 · · Score: 1

      Gravity is a hoax. The earth is a large flat disk accelerating through space on the back of a rocket propelled tortoise and the sun is small light source only 100 miles above the plane of the disk. It's really the B-ark space ship carrying away the descendants of the true earth's telephone sanitizers and hairdressers. Don't fall for the lies of "big globe" and their well paid "scientists".

      --
      Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  16. Man vs Nature by InfiniteZero · · Score: 1

    Democracy is a human construct, i.e. consensus of the majority, while science reflects how nature behaves. Good luck imposing man's will on nature.

    1. Re:Man vs Nature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "while science reflects how nature behaves"

      That is the most absurd statement I've read in this thread. Humans use science to transform natures behavior to make our lives "better."

    2. Re:Man vs Nature by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Democracy is a human construct, i.e. consensus of the majority, while science reflects how nature behaves. Good luck imposing man's will on nature.

      But Obama promised that with his election, "the rise of the oceans would begin to slow and the planet start to heal"

      You aren't calling him a liar, are you?

  17. I Vote Hoax by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does that change anything? No. But I am pretty sure I understand more about the issue than any Senator -- and I'm nobody!

    So what does this vote accomplish again?

  18. Scientific things have been legislated before. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Indiana tried to legislate the value of PI.

    I think we all can see how that turned out.

    1. Re:Scientific things have been legislated before. by xrayspx · · Score: 1

      Little known fun fact: The 500 mile race was meant to be run on a perfectly round track...

  19. Very Situational by Akratist · · Score: 1

    I can't help but think that if the Senate voted affirmatively that climate change was real, then everyone would applaud them and the article would not have been posted. Like a lot of things, what seems to work and not work is very situational, based on whose ox is getting gored. That said, while it should not be particularly relative what a legislative body thinks of a scientific issue -- after all, scientists aren't voting on whether or not the Senate is deeply, hideously, irrevocably corrupt, stupid, and incompetent -- a political stunt like that sets the tone for a lot of people who are just looking to have their particular bias confirmed -- "Oh, hey, look what the Senate said...normally while I hate government, I'll put that aside for a second and be glad they agree with me! Murka, hell YEAH!" Overall, the fact that this vote took place shows just how badly science, along with everything else in this country, has become politicized. The political debate should be a non-starter, and efforts to reduce carbon emissions should simply be a policy like not dumping barrels of plutonium into the sea or letting rivers catch on fire.

  20. Stupid has become...... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    ....the defining characteristic to the US political discourse. It is incredible that they would waste taxpayer dollars and time on something just to appease the religious nuts. This is just a way to force and create the illusion of religious persecution (when if anything it is the opposite) when all it is is people discovering the truths of our existence through factual and verifiable evidence, something religion consistently fails to demonstrate. Fundamentally though, religion is meant to be a belief. When the so called facts (like 6 day world creation) of religious ideas whatever belief system they may be are challenged, the religious types get irritable. Christian politicians start these idiotic votes to outlaw the facts, islamic fundamentalists kill people, jews use their media influence to hide the truths that conflict with their ideas. And before the people come out saying this is anti-semetic, check it. That is exactly how it works. Religion has the nice BITE method (google it) to attack anyone that questions it's ideas (I speak of all belief systems as an institution).

    The theory of stupid. Where people who dismiss the plain truth in order to perpetuate their own ideas. It's as ridiculous as believing in superman...actually more so as one could actually prove superman exists more than they can using the religious method of proving things (Metropolis, Illinois, statue of superman there, probably even a clark kent in said city as well).

    Our Senate (I dare say our whole political system in the US) has gone full retard.

  21. Wrong approach - they should make it illegal! by HnT · · Score: 2

    This is clearly the wrong approach, they should simply make it illegal. Make everyone worry for the safety of their children (spontaneous combustion!) and explain that climate change is clearly a form of terrorism thus it is super-über-illegal. That should do it.

    --
    "Only one thing is impossible for God: To find any sense in any copyright law on the planet." - Mark Twain
    1. Re:Wrong approach - they should make it illegal! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Since we have now established that climate change is a form of terrorism, we must immediately pass legislation to closely monitor everything the climate is doing (without the need for warrants of course).

      Ironically, this puts us back where we started. Scientists doing their thing, policy makers doing whatever will get them re-elected.

  22. Faux science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It is? Because all the data I've seen points to other direction.

    Also, the local climate has been super fucking weird around here for at least 5 years.

  23. Unconstitutional by Qzukk · · Score: 2

    Clearly it's a violation of the separation of powers. Only the judicial branch can decide reality, like the judge ruling that deepwater horizon spilled 3.19 million barrels of oil.

    --
    If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
  24. Outcome of the vote by physicsphairy · · Score: 3, Informative

    By 98 to 1, U.S. Senate passes amendment saying climate change is real, not a hoax

    Personally, when "the senate just voted" is linked to something in the summary, I would expect the link to tell me more about the outcome.

    1. Re:Outcome of the vote by jcdr · · Score: 1

      Please moderate parent up to the max.
      This is the only interesting factual post on this thread.

    2. Re:Outcome of the vote by ohnocitizen · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Mod parent up with the result. Also the purpose of the vote. The vote was a strategic tool by one party to get members of the other party on the record about climate change. To what degree that works we'll get to see in the next Senate campaign (if any of the Democrats are able to effectively use it in their campaigns). But this isn't about legislating science - its about applying political pressure to the people who deny science to secure votes. While I am not sure how effective that will be I would love to see bills about creationism hit the federal level. Can you imagine your Senator on the record saying they think creationism is valid science?

    3. Re:Outcome of the vote by blackbeak · · Score: 1

      A current trend in socio-political theory is Uri Bronfenbrenner's Ecological Systems Theory which states: "...basic science needs public policy even more than public policy needs basic science". Get it? Policy drives the science.

      --
      Everything and its opposite is true. Get used to it.
    4. Re:Outcome of the vote by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Roger Wicker, from Mississippi, you are an american icon.

    5. Re:Outcome of the vote by jfengel · · Score: 1

      How the f*** does Inhofe get to vote "yes" on this, when he's said "it's a hoax" loudly and repeatedly in the past? He's still the chair of the Environment committee. Is there any chance that this change of heart at least going to keep him from railroading scientists?

  25. Yet communication by information does - USE IT by fey000 · · Score: 1

    This is not rocket surgery.

    DO:
    Put your shoes on before going outside.
    DO NOT:
    Greet your neighbors with a tennis racket to the genitals.

    DO:
    Post the summary of the article in the summary.
    DO NOT:
    Post worthless clickbait in the summary.

    Please grasp the concept.

    1. Re:Yet communication by information does - USE IT by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Slashdot belongs to a for-profit organization.

      Please grasp the concept.

  26. Elevated CO2 levels impair decision making ability by kenj123 · · Score: 2

    here's a link: http://www.partel.ie/blog/?p=3... there are other effects from CO2 then climate changed. Decreased cognition was detected at 1000ppm. its a problem in air conditioned buildings with high recycle. At some increasing levels needs to be addressed.

  27. Bad title. by SCHecklerX · · Score: 2

    Science by democracy isn't science.

  28. Stupid vote by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Almost everyone believes the is changing or can change, but the subtext of a significant portion of the "yes" votes is going to be "but we aren't the catalyst for that change". So the point of bringing it up at all, which was to hammer home the need to pursue cleaner energy sources, is lost.

  29. "Science By Democracy Doesn't Work" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Democracy in general doesn't work. Asking large groups of uninformed strangers to make decisions for you results in bad decisions being made for you.

  30. My issue with global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My issue is that even among scientists this is not a do or die kind of event as Obama and Al Gore try to make it. Some scientists are on the fence some are all in and some disagree with the way the statistics have been presented. Even if you agree that global warming is occurring. Why are these scientists not screaming it and why is it only the Al Gore's and Obama's that are the Chicken Little's? Also, why is Al Gore not preaching this to the worst world offender China? Or why is Obama willing to preach to Congress and American's but does little to do so in China. Also, think back to how many American manufactures have moved operations to China where regulations on pollution's are nil? Just imagine if the incentives to stay and be clean in America would have actually done more then any speech Al Gore or Obama could give. What I see with global warming is a false prophecy based on science that can be manipulated with such small changes that can either make or break your theory. Not that we as human's should not protect our planet. But why are the Al Gore's preaching to the believers and not the non believers? Bottom line, Al Gore profits from pretending to fight the good fight. Even though he rarely engages his perceived enemy.

  31. Tobacco science by goombah99 · · Score: 2

    I take it you are not yet persuaded by the science against smoking cigarettes?

    Please mod parent -1 disagree.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
    1. Re:Tobacco science by Dragonslicer · · Score: 1

      That's actually an interesting comparison. It's nearly impossible to "prove" (in the scientific sense, not the mathematical sense) that smoking cigarettes causes cancer without conducting experiments on humans, which is generally frowned upon. Studies and medical records show a strong correlation between smoking cigarettes and various health problems. Since there's no remotely feasible explanation for cancer causing smoking, and there doesn't seem to be any common cause for both smoking and cancer (e.g. some genetic trait), the reasonable assumption is that smoking increases the risk of cancer. Remember, though, that many people who smoke cigarettes live longer than the average life span, so it still isn't as "proven" as gravity or conservation of energy.

    2. Re:Tobacco science by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      It's actually possible that cancer could cause smoking, but the normal situation is cancer after the victim has been smoking for a while.

      We've also got mechanisms to show how smoking can cause cancer, emphysema, heart disease, etc. Similarly, we've got mechanisms to show how more carbon dioxide has effects on the climate.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  32. Wrong Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So for the question "is climate change real and not a hoax." everyone pretty much voted yes. ( http://www.wired.com/2015/01/senators-dont-believe-human-caused-climate-change/ )
    However, they were split on whether human activity was a significant contributor.

    They have simply asked the wrong question!!!!
    All they should have asked is: Given that our climate is changing, should we do something about it? (perhaps we need more investigations on what is the cause).

  33. Support the supporters by ITRambo · · Score: 1

    The Republican Congress will do anything (even take a meaningless vote like this one) to show their largest campaign donors that they love and support them. Keep the money coming and we'll let you feel even better about damaging the environment for whatever reasons you tell us to state. .

    1. Re:Support the supporters by ITRambo · · Score: 1

      Well color me cynical. The vote stated that the science is real. I will now eat the words in my original post and shut up while I ponder what happened to cause the Republican part to demonstrate common sense. They confuse me.

  34. Democracy by k2dk · · Score: 2

    Democracy is counting skulls instead of brains. - Cant remember :)

  35. Democracy by science also doesn't work by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

    Democracy by science also doesn't work. Remember the "scientific basis" behind the eugenics movement, which even after WW2 was used to justify forced sterilization of those deemed mentally retarded? Or the "scientific basis" for blacks being inferior? Or the "scientific basis" for "curing" gays and lesbians? Or the "scientific basis" for trains not being able to travel more than 20 mph because the passengers would have all the air sucked out of their lungs at that terrifying speed? I'm sure that with a bit of thought you can come up with more.

    Science and democracy are orthogonal.

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  36. As expected ... by garry_g · · Score: 2

    ... only scientifically challenged (read: morons) would vote on whether scientific results are true. Why don't they let SCIENTISTS vote on the issue? Oh, right, because 97% of the scientists stating the climate change is true would overrule the 3% that say it isn't ...

  37. Slashdot posts without verifications don't work! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It was voted a hoax, the only thing which doesn't work is the title of this article...

  38. Society... by mrops · · Score: 2

    ...by democracy really doesn't work too well either.

    Its the best we have, but it doesn't work, more so in a polarized society.

    1. Re:Society... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Every country has the government it deserves.
                                          -- Joseph de Maistre (1753–1821)

    2. Re:Society... by Ferretman · · Score: 1

      You disagree with the Citizen's United decision?

      Wow....it was a straight up freedom of speech decision. Should have been 9 - 0 in favor.

      Ferret

      --
      Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
    3. Re:Society... by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2

      Wow....it was a straight up freedom of speech decision.

      No, it wasn't. It was anything but. By effectively declaring that money = speech, the Supreme Court tried to make this a country in which some people get to have much more speech than others. And that is so clearly an anti-American conclusion that it WILL inevitably be overturned.

      But back to the main topic. This isn't as big a deal -- or quite the "victory" -- that some people have been crowing about.

      First, it's ridiculous to try to declare science settled by legislative fiat. It's about as smart as the old story about declaring Pi equal to 3.0... and it was the Democrats who just tried to do it. So now they have egg on their faces.

      Second, while the vote agreed that climate change was real, any language that would also agree that it was man-caused was left out.

      So the whole thing was a huge straw man of no consequence whatever. Anybody who declares this to be some kind of "victory" is an idiot.

  39. Surprise: Most People Voted Otherwise by Prien715 · · Score: 1

    It may seem odd, but most people in last election voted for Democrats, who have climate change as part of their platform.

    In 2012, the first congressional election after the last round of gerrymandering, Democratic House candidates won 50.59 percent of the vote — or 1.37 million more votes than Republican candidates — yet secured only 201 seats in Congress, compared to 234 seats for Republicans. The House of Representatives, the “people’s house,” no longer requires the most votes for power. source

    So blaming "democracy" seems a little odd -- especially since we're a Republic.

    --
    -- Political fascism requires a Fuhrer.
  40. We live in republic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We live in a republic. The people elect representatives to determine governmental policy. The people elected individuals who have determined a certain course of action, elections have consequences. If you do not like it, well, too bad

  41. Next on the agenda by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Congress to repeal or alter the laws of physics.

    Congress siting safety concerns plans to reduce the speed of light and set up photo enforcement levying hefty fines for violations.

    Congress is also considering restricting or even completely repealing the laws of gravity to make it easier to launch space craft making space exploration more cost effective.

    A congressional comity it looking in to legislation allowing alchemy with a specific focus on turning lead or even toxic waste in to gold by the government and select campaign Donner's.

    Also various congressional comity's are looking in to rain and snow fall restrictions along with complete drought and earth quake bans.
    Volcanic activity will be restricted requiring a tightly regulated permitting process for scenic and truest purposes only placing limits on ash plumes and lava flows.
    The Yellow Stone shield volcano is to be permanently banned from erupting.

  42. The Earth is flat by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The Earth is flat, the Earth is the center of the universe, republicans are right.

  43. News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Politicians are idiots. News at 11.

  44. Except when scientists do it by dorpus · · Score: 1

    When mathematicians vote on whether to accept a new theorem, when psychiatrists vote on which diseases should be included in the latest version of DSM, when NIH panels vote on whether to fund a grant. No, science couldn't possibly be run by the tyranny of the mob that refuses to believe in ideas that are too new and radical.

  45. So to be consistent... by argStyopa · · Score: 1

    (Since I agree that science-by-democracy is stupid)

    Does that mean we can ALSO expect Global Warming folks to stop spouting the phrase "an overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree on..."

    Or is it ok for one side, but not the other?

    Seriously, though: while I again agree that this vote was stupid, let's all be very clear that the response to Global Warming - whatever the cause - is entirely political.

    If you have a problem, it's entirely reasonable to ask specialists about the problem, the causes and consequences. But as we don't have infinite resources to address every problem in existence, choosing WHICH problem to try to solve is not a scientist's choice, it's a political choice.

    --
    -Styopa
  46. Square the circle by wiredlogic · · Score: 1

    I'm waiting for them to fix the plague of transcendental numbers and redefine pi to be the proper, all-American value of 3.2. If we're lucky they might fix that pesky e too.

    --
    I am becoming gerund, destroyer of verbs.
  47. Society... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm not sure what "it doesn't work" means. One problem that most American's don't realize is that our representative democracy isn't representing the right interests -- namely, people. And that's by design, actually. Our "democracy" was originally intended to represent the wealthy as landowners, who were thought to hold some sort of moral expertise, which obviously (and admitted to be by Madison) is false, afterall. Around the 1960's we moved a little closer to the right kind of representation, but much of the progress has been moved back, with, for example, things like the Citizen's United decision.

  48. Head in the sand politics... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Burried by all the lovely campaign donations *COUGHBRIBESCOUGH* from lobby groups and that wonderful Citizen's United ruling.

  49. Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So funny. First you say the data shows no global warming. Then you are shown the data, and the data shows a clear continuation of the trend with no pause whatsoever. Suddenly, when it is clear that the data no longer confirms your preconceptions, you turn against the data and say that it is not trustworthy. Then you go on to talk about how preconceptions can result in biases - but you seem to have no self awareness whatsoever! Classic :)

    1. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      BS. Nobody is denying the warming trend since the 70's, which is what your graph shows. But there has been no statistically significant warming trend for 17 years or so. That's a fact.

    2. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by khallow · · Score: 1

      I think this is why climate alarmism will ultimately fail. You say things about an AC which are clearly untrue. The AC didn't say those things, you did.

      And if we use that graph you linked as our "trend" (ignoring that 1970 is not a good starting point because it's near a local minimum), then we see around 1.5 C heating from 2000 to 2100. That currently is much less than the forecasts are projecting (2 C being a bare minimum and 4 C being the most common prediction).

    3. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by itzly · · Score: 1

      1970 is near a local minimum because that's when the atmospheric aerosol content was high due to industrial pollution. Since then we've done a lot to clean exhaust gases from sulphuric and nitrous oxides. If you want to start earlier, you'd have to compensate for that aerosol cooling. And you'd also have to compensate for the fact that there was less CO2 production.

      As far as predictions for 2100, those would depend on the CO2 scenario. Which one are you referring to ?

    4. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Look again! The trend since 2000 is exactly in line with the trend from 1970-2000! No change!

    5. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      So in 60 years the temperature will rise by what, .6 degrees?

      Data shows that over the last 100 years the average temps haven't risen much over 1.5 degrees F. That's 100 years!

      Data models are predicting warming trends based on CO2 levels being CO2 is a greenhouse gas. So then we have the untested unproven theory there, climate is warming. Now we have the data while it shows a warming trend it doesn't show the dire trend as it's preached.

      Does this mean it should be ignored? Hell no, we should be proactive in this.

      The major question is will our fuel supplies run out prior to significant levels of CO2 in the atmosphere to raise global temps more than a tenth of a degree per decade.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    6. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Yes, I agree there has been a warming trend since 1970. But it is also true that Nasa's data shows no statistically significant warming since 2000. The data sets differ of course, with Nasa's data showing the most warming and also diverging the most from satellite data. The RSS data for example shows no statistically significant warming since '93 or so.

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

    7. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You're not getting it. Since 2000 we have seen exactly the warming we would have expected if the warming from 1970-2000 had continued at the same pace: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

    8. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      You are right, I don't get it. How can he say "global warming has continued" when Nasa's own data shows no statistically significant warming since 2000? His statement is simply not factual.

    9. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You need to understand what statistically significant means. It doesn't mean no warming. It doesn't mean warming has slowed. If you fail to find statistical significance then you have failed to reject a hypothesis - you have not proven a hypothesis. If you wanted to show that the recent warming was significantly different from the previous trend then you would need to find that with statistical significance. Look at the three graphs here for an illustration: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

      Does the recent trend fall outside of the error bars projected from the warming up to 2000 or is it bang on what you would have projected based on the warming up to 2000?

    10. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by samwichse · · Score: 1

      Boom! Headshot!

      Well done sir.

    11. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      It means you can't claim a warming trend because a warming trend of zero can't be ruled out. Grade school stuff, no?

      I've seen those graphs, and they show a trend line from 1970 which is not how you determine if a trend exists from 2000. Here are three trend lines. You can see that yes, there is a trend from 1970-2015 that is very similar to the trend from 1970-2000. I've also included a trend line measured from 2000. It is much different.

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      The same thing happens with the RSS data but more exaggerated: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      Linear trends are not very good with curves. If you want to know the temperature trend for the last 15 years you don't start your trend at 1970. As you can see with the RSS data, even 15 years of slight cooling will not effect the long term trend that much. But can you seriously argue that therefore it has continued warming for those 15 years? No, you can't.

    12. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Grade school stuff, no?

      Apparently not. By the same token we cannot rule out warming of less than 0.046C/decade and therefor we cannot claim that warming was any less than twice the IPCC projections. What are you some kind of alarmist? Clearly there is evidence that warming was less, even just considering the period in question.

      therefore it has continued warming for those 15 years

      Q: What temperatures would you have predicted for the last 15 years if warming continued just as fast as the fastest period of warming prior?

      A: Exactly what we have seen!

    13. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      IPCC predicted 0.2/decade not 0.02/decade. Get your facts straight.

      Once again an AGW proponent tries to re-define "statistical significance" to suit themselves. You wouldn't believe how many times I've seen this happen. It's mind boggling. Anything to win an internet argument, eh? *facepalm*

      Q: What temperatures would you have predicted for the last 15 years if warming continued just as fast as the fastest period of warming prior?

      Around what the IPCC predicted, about 0.2deg per decade. And no, that's not what we have seen at all.

    14. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You got me. The actual trend is as high as 0.254C/decade for GISS. By your logic: If we cannot reject that trend then we clearly cannot claim that warming was any less than 0.254C/decade. And since we cannot reject a trend as low as 0C we can clearly say that it has not warmed. So warming is >= 0.254C/decade but less than or = 0C. Truly, you have a dizzying intellect!

    15. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You wouldn't believe how many times I've seen this happen.

      Possibly everyone else is wrong and you are right.... possibly.

    16. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Yes, according to your logic, error bars are not needed. I wonder why they have them. :P

    17. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The actual trend is as high as 0.254C/decade for GISS

      No, that is not the linear trend GISS data shows for the last 15 years. Where did you get that number?

    18. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I wonder why they have them

      I have no doubt they mystify you.

    19. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Clearly they are not making any use of them. Oh wait, they are.

        "Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation." http://www.nature.com/news/cli...

      Maybe you should explain to the journal Nature why they should have ignored the margin of error and claimed a warming trend.

    20. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The error bars go as high as 0.254C/decade. So does that mean warming must be at least that high?

    21. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Where are you getting your numbers from? (They're wrong in case you're wondering.)

      For what it's worth, if you can't rule out a negative trend or a zero trend because of the margin of error, you cannot claim a positive trend. It's not "meaningful". It interests me that you continue to deny something so basic.

    22. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      They are not wrong. That is GISS since 2005. As much as 0.254C over the ten years at 2 sigma. So as you note above, if we cannot rule out 0.254C then we cannot say that warming was any less than 0.254. It would not be "meaningful".

      Are you starting to see that you don't really understand what statistical significance implies?

    23. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Again, where are you getting your numbers?

      You are not making much sense anyway. You are saying the upper bound of the margin of error is more than 10 times the trend since 2005??

      Assuming you are correct (you're not), I agree we would not be able to rule out a warming trend of 0.254C. Likewise we would not be able to rule out a COOLING trend of 0.23C. Any claims of a positive trend or a negative trend would be even more meaningless.

    24. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Finally!. So you cannot say that there has been no warming. At most you can say "I don't know given the limited data set that I've selected". Luckily we have a greater data set and don't need to limit ourselves. If you wanted to know whether the record fast warming from the 70's to 2000 had continued, you could do this and find that IT HAS: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

    25. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      "Finally"? Nobody is denying the warming trend since the 70's, which is what your graph shows. But there has been no statistically significant warming trend for 17 years or so. That's a fact.

      What I said: How can Tamino say "global warming has continued" from 2000 to present when Nasa's own data shows no statistically significant warming during that period?

      And now you pretend you agreed all along?

      If temperatures went up 10deg one day and stayed perfectly flat for the next 20 years you'd still get a 20 year positive trend. According to your logic you would say therefore "the warming continued" during those 20 years. Good grief.

    26. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      What I said: How can Tamino say "global warming has continued" from 2000 to present when Nasa's own data shows no statistically significant warming during that period?

      because, as we JUST finished agreeing, "no statistically significant trend" does NOT mean "There is no trend." It just means "I have chosen a method that cannot answer this question." and since Tamino is clever (and not stuck), he has chosen another method that CAN answer the question.

    27. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      He is answering a different question. Again, measuring a trend from 1970 does not tell you if there is a trend since 2000. Nobody denies the long term trend, so what's his point?

      I agree he is "clever" by trying to spin it that way. If he had said "there has been no meaningful warming since 2000 but the long term warming trend is indisputable" I could agree with him. But he doesn't say that. Instead he says the opposite and uses tricks to create the illusion of a recent warming trend where there is none.

    28. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You still don't get it, but I think you're making progress. He is not measuring since 1970. He is predicting what values we should have seen after 2000 if the trend from 1970-2000 had continued past 2000. Guess what? We saw exactly the temperatures that we would have expected AFTER 2000 if the rate of warming had continued unabated:: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

    29. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      I've been consistent the entire time. Tamino said: "since the turn of the millenium... global warming has continued and shows no sign of slowing down."

      The linear trend from 1975-2000 is 0.018C per year while the trend from 2000-2015 is only 0.0083 per year. That's less than half! So how can he say that global warming "shows no sign of slowing down" since the turn of the millennium?

    30. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Please reread my last post. That question is already answered.

    31. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Maybe you should reread my post. The trend from 2000 - 2015 has not continued as Tamino stated: it is less than half that from 1975 - 2000. If the trend had continued GISS data would show an additional ~0.14C of warming since 2000 and we would not be having this discussion.

      What he's doing is comparing the differences between the trend-line from 1970 - 2000 and the trend-line from 1970 - 2015, which are small. That's because 15 years of no significant warming won't effect a long term linear trend-line that much.

      Tamino could make the same claim with the RSS data to turn a 15 year cooling trend into warming that "shows no sign of slowing down". It's truly absurd.
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      It should be clear by now that Tamino's "clever" approach is misleading and his claim that warming "shows no sign of slowing down" is flat out wrong.

    32. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I thought you'd wrapped your head around statistical significance, but we can take a step back if you need to. So the trend since 2000 is possibly as high as 0.216C/decade. The trend from 1970-2000 is possibly as low as 0.106C/decade. So just looking at the trend won't help us know whether the recent trend is what we would expect if the pre-2000 trend had continued unabated. To know that we would have to look at whether the recent trend is what we would expect if the pre-2000 trend had continued unabated.. And yes, this could be done on any data set. (duh).

    33. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Looking at the recent trend won't help us know what the recent trend is like?? Seriously? (Tamino is using a linear trend-line on his graph! How do you think he came up with it??)

      It's easy to find out what the temperature trend is since 2000: it's 0.083C per decade, which is so small they can't be sure there is any warming trend at all. Tamino is trying to use a long-term trend to draw conclusions about a short-term trend, which is completely bogus. This is what his graph should look like:
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      By the way, your numbers are wrong. (Where did you get .216C/decade from?) The upper bound is closer to 0.165C/decade, which is lower than the warming recorded from '75-'00. But sure, you could argue there is some overlap in the margins of error, and that the trend may have continued. But only if we look to the lower bounds of the margin of error from 1975-2000 and the upper bounds from 2000-2015. If Tamino had actually said that then we wouldn't be having this discussion. Instead he said in unequivocal terms that the warming "shows no sign of slowing down". That is simply not true.

      Ironically that's the same argument I made about the "hottest year". Lol. The best you can say is that the trend *may* have continued (however unlikely), and that 2014 *may* have been the hottest year (but probably not).

    34. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Looking at the recent trend won't help us know what the recent trend is like?? Seriously?

      How can you still be asking this? The trend was anywhere from 0 to 0.216C/decade. So the trend is either no warming at all or warming past all expectations... but which is it really? Turns out it is exactly consistent with what we would have expected if the warming of 1970-2000 had continued past 2000 to present day.

    35. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      How can you still be asking this?

      Your numbers are wrong and Taminos post is bogus. If the warming were consistent then the trends would be similar. But they are not and no amount of weaseling can get around that fact.

    36. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      "no statistically significant trend" does NOT mean "There is no trend." It just means "I have chosen a method that cannot answer this question."

      You seem to think that "no significant trend" is not a legitimate answer for some reason. Interesting. Maybe what you mean to say is that "I have chosen a method that is not giving me the answer I want."

      So let me put it in terms you might be better able to understand. If the data showed an increased warming trend since 2000, Tamino's extrapolation trick is the one skeptics would be using to try to "prove" that global warming has "stayed about the same". AGW proponents would laugh themselves silly at such a feeble attempt to mask the temperature increase. Yet bizarrely here they are doing what they would surely condemn if it was done by others.

    37. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      If the data showed an increased warming trend since 2000, Tamino's extrapolation trick is the one skeptics would be using to try to "prove" that global warming has "stayed about the same"

      The method can be used to show whether the trend has stayed about the same regardless of whether the warming has increased or decreased over the most recent period. duh!

    38. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Your numbers are wrong and Taminos post is bogus

      Plugging your ears and singing the alphabet song is not convincing.

      If the warming were consistent then the trends would be similar.

      But they are similar. There is no statistically significant difference between the two trends.

    39. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Lets use Tamino's extrapolation trick to determine if AGW is real. According to the IPCC, anthropogenic CO2 started to have a real influence on temperatures since 1950. (Prior to that the anthropogenic contribution of CO2 was too small to have had much of an influence.) We will do what Tamino did: we'll take the trend from 1900-1950 and extrapolate it, then compare the extrapolation to the actual trend from 1900-2015. If the world was warming because of human influence, we should see a noticeable increase in the trend from 1900-2015 compared to 1900-1950.

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      !

    40. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      If you wanted to compare pre-1950 with post-1950 you would do this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

    41. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Lol! That's what I've been saying all along! If you wanted to compare pre 2000 with post 2000 you would do this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      Suddenly you prefer that approach to Tamino's extrapolation trick? Care to explain why it's legitimate in one case but not another?

      Tamino's method shows global warming is slowing down when it should be speeding up:

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      Lol

    42. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Ah. I see your confusion. You don't really understand what Tamino did. He did not compare 1970-2000 with 1970-2015. No wonder you are confused. He compared 1970-2000 with 2000-2015. Just as you have shown in your first link above. So no, that's not a gotcha. That's exactly what he is doing. Now he has also shown what you would predict for 2000-2015 if the 1970-2000 trend had continued. Guess what he found? Recent warming is exactly in line with what we would expect if the 1970-2000 trend had continued to present day. This is really not that tricky. Please take a moment to read the link before you make your next post. What a waste of time! You are arguing from ignorance and for no good reason!

    43. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      No, he did not compare the 1970-2000 trend with the 2000-2015 trend. That is where YOU are confused. From the RealClimate site: "the underlying long-term trend has not changed appreciably over the last decade or so. (Tamino has a good post on this as well)... 2014 is almost exactly on trend extrapolating from 1970-2013 or 1970-1998".

      http://www.realclimate.org/ima...

    44. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You are linking to a different site showing a different thing you dolt! I'm not talking about the realClimate analysis! Lord! I only linked the exact site that I'm referring to about a dozen times! Once more - here it is: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

      You can read right? Please do and stop wasting my time.

    45. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Perhaps you are in denial. I think Nasa's Gavin Schmidt is better positioned to understand what Tamino has done than you are. On the RealClimate site Nasa's Gavin Schmidt is doing exactly what Tamino is doing, and Schmidt says as much: "Tamino has a good post on this as well".

      It's not a coincidence their graphs look a) similar to each other; b) similar to this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl... and c) not at all similar to this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      It's too bad Tamino does not say explicitly what his graph represents. It was obvious to me from the start, but I guess it's not obvious to everybody. It would have saved you some time if he had.

      Ciao.

    46. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I think Nasa's Gavin Schmidt is better positioned to understand what Tamino has done than you are

      I'm sure he is, but he is not describing Tamino's analysis. He is describing his own. That is plain as day for anyone who has read Tamino's analysis. Please do so!

      It's too bad Tamino does not say explicitly what his graph represents.

      You are daft. He says exactly what it represents. It is not difficult. Read it.

    47. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Why not. I'll go into a little more detail since this isn't clear to you for some reason.

      Tamino says: "Assuming global warming continues without slowing down, we would have expected this," with an accompanying graph that extrapolates the long-term trend from 1970.

      Then he says: "This is what actually happened," with an accompanying graph clearly showing a long term trend-line from 1970-2015. The point is clear: the recent pause has not affected the long term trend.

      He says the recent data fits the long term trend "just about as closely as one could have imagined." He can only be comparing the two long term trends since the recent 15 year trend is less than half that of the previous 30 years. Far from a fit that's as close as "one could have imagined".

      Where does he specify how he came up with these graphs and trend-lines? He talks about "the global-warming-continues-without-slowing-down pattern", but that's about as technical as he gets. Most of the post is just a rant.

      The title of his blog post is "It's the Trend, Stupid". The whole point of the post is to show how the "pause" hasn't affected the 45 year trend; that it's practically the same as the 30 year trend from 1970-2000.

      At the end of the post he writes: "They just don’t seem to realize that the real embarrassment to their precious “pause” is the trend." Again, he is contrasting the 15 year "pause" to the long term, 45 year trend.

      In the comments section Zeke Hausfather of Yale Climate Connections says "Looks like we both had the same idea; I made a very similar figure over the weekend for Yale Climate Connections" On the referred Climate Connections post Zeke writes: "While the trend over the past decade is fairly flat, there is a danger in over-interpreting short-term trends in long and noisy time series, as this illustration shows." It's the same theme: the recent pause doesn't effect the 45 year trend.

      His illustration looks just like Tamino's and Gavin's: https://i0.wp.com/www.yaleclim... It clearly shows a trend-line from 1970 to 1999 and a trend-line from 1970 to 2015. It does not show a recent trend-line which would look "fairly flat", as he acknowledges above.

      Gavin Schmidt's graph, Tamino's graph and Zek Hausfather's graph all look like this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      None of their graphs look like this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      Does that help clarify things?

    48. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Tamino says: "Assuming global warming continues without slowing down, we would have expected this," with an accompanying graph that extrapolates the long-term trend from 1970.

      Then he says: "This is what actually happened," with an accompanying graph clearly showing a long term trend-line from 1970-2015.

      Ok. Two paragraphs in and you already have it wrong. Look again. No 1970-2015 trend was added at this time. He is not comparing trend lines. Only the data was added after "This is what actually happened,"

    49. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I saw that which is why I didn't specify what the trend-line signified. Whether he's using the 45 year extrapolated trend-line or the actual 45 year trend-line makes little difference, since they're practically identical. (That's the whole point of his post.) Either way he is showing how the recent data fits with a 45 year trend-line "just about as closely as one could have imagined".

      This: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      Not this: http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

    50. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Ok. So what is the actual underlying trend since 2000? Based on the 2 sigma confidence intervals we clearly cannot reject cooling of 0.05 C/decade or warming of 0.216 C/decade, although these are on the very outside of the probability distribution and are therefor unlikely.

      Based on Tamino's analysis, continuation of the trend from 1970-2000 cannot be rejected.

      Based on physics? The properties of CO2 have not changed with the new millennium, so all else being equal we should expect a continuation of the long term trend.... but of course all else is not equal.

      Certainly the solar output has taken a nose dive. That will have reduced the trend: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/p...

      On the other hand polar ice extent has decreased overall (summer ice extent more so) so reflectivity (albedo) is diminished. That will have increased the trend: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/n...

      Aerosols are the biggest wildcard as they are difficult to measure and their impact is difficult to gauge.

      Bottom line, it is simplistic and wrong to say that there has been no warming since 2000. In fact, it is very unlikely that this is true.

    51. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Bottom line, it is simplistic and wrong to say that there has been no warming since 2000. In fact, it is very unlikely that this is true.

      As far as a simple linear trend is concerned, it is unlikely that there has been no warming since the beginning of the century, based on GISS data. But it is not at all unlikely if you use any of the other data sets. (GISS is an outlier. Maybe it has to do with the +2degC of warming they are known to add via adjustments.)

      As for sea ice, it's about average. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/c...

      Antarctic sea ice was at record highs until just recently: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_i...

      And finally, the properties of CO2 do not change, but only a small portion of the predicted warming is due to CO2 directly. MOST of the predicted warming is due to "climate sensitivity" estimates, which are all over the map. Climate scientists claim that the climate reacts to the heating caused by CO2 by amplifying it 3 times. (The range is much wider. I've seen climate sensitivity estimates as low as 0.9C and as high as 7 or 8C.) However, there is little evidence to support high climate sensitivity estimates and the uncertainty in this area is vast. If the climate is not as sensitive to CO2 heating as scientists have assumed, then global warming is not a serious threat.

      Regardless, like many other skeptics I actively support innovative nuclear designs and fusion projects, since fossil fuels are expensive, dirty and finite. If AGW proponents weren't allergic to the word "nuclear" then the AGW scare might serve a useful purpose. Unfortunately the pro-AGW crowd will likely continue to impede the only viable solution to their non-existent problem: nuclear.

    52. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      GISS has been shown to have a cooling bias by Cowtan+Way 2014. BEST shows the same. GISS is hardly an outlier. It's middle of the road.

      Either way - even with RSS Tamino's method shows that there is no evidence that the 1970-2000 trend has slowed. So no- wrongo bongo.

      As for sea ice, it's about average.

      Ha! You can't see the forest if there's a tree that confirms your preconception. Your willing to dismiss this because we have reached 'average' during northern hemisphere winter? This is especially comical since 'average' on your chart is getting lower with each passing year. That is about the level of skepticism I've come to expect from deniers.

    53. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      What data-set shows more warming that GISS? (BEST is land-only.)

      Cowtan & Way says the hottest data-set that's already been adjusted upwards to the tune of 2C in some cases has a "cooling bias"? You'll forgive me if I don't accept the conclusions from a single study. (Their paper has been torn to shreds by critics.)

      Skeptics did not create these graphs, but here's another one which shows that global sea ice extent is not unusually low :
      http://www.climate4you.com/ima...

      As you can see from the above, global sea ice has recovered in recent years and is fairly close to what it was in the 80's. Maybe you should look before you leap.

      Antarctic sea ice was at all time record highs for much of 2014, while Arctic sea ice hit a record low in 2012. Overall they pretty much cancel each other out.

      (And shouldn't your graph look more like this?? http://woodfortrees.org/plot/n... )

    54. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      What data-set shows more warming that GISS?

      BEST land only shows more than GISS land only.

      the hottest data-set..

      Wrong. See above.

      Skeptics did not create these graphs,

      You didn't answer my question. But one crazy at a time. Tamino's method shows that there is no evidence of a deviation from the 1970-2000 trend. Do you get that yet? Do you see now that it is simplistic and wrong to say that there has been no warming since 2000? In fact it is very unlikely that this is true.

    55. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Yes, and Tamino's method also shows cooling since 1950. http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl... That's because his extrapolation trick is bogus: it tells you very little about short term trends. If you want to make statements about short term trends, then you need to look at the short term trends. You said so yourself not so long ago, so I thought we agreed on this one. ("If you wanted to compare pre-1950 with post-1950 you would do this...") I'm not sure why you are being inconsistent on this.

      It is correct to say there is no significant warming trend since 2000. And it is also correct to say that the recent "pause" does not effect the long-term trend since 1970. But it is incorrect to say that the warming since 2000 has continued and shows no signs of slowing down. For whatever reason "Hansen's Bulldog" decided to "spin" things. Perhaps he misspoke. I asked him but he hasn't published my comment. (Likely due to the spam filter.)

      Up until now we were talking about global surface temperatures. But when you said GISS wasn't the hottest data-set you were talking about land-only temperatures? I admire your flexibility.

      Do tell: how much hotter is BEST compared to GISS? Does GISS even have a "land-only" data-set??

    56. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Yes, and Tamino's method also shows cooling since 1950

      No. It clearly hasn't cooled since 1950. You are still confused about what Tamino did. He didn't compare the 1970-2000 trend with 1970-2015. I thought you'd wrapped your head around this five posts back. Yet this is exactly what you are doing in your graph! It makes everything you said afterwards wrong. Try again.

    57. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      how much hotter is BEST compared to GISS?

      Since 1970:

      HADCRU4 = 0.162C/decade

      GISTEMP = 0.162C/decade

      Which is the outlier? You say GISTEMP, but it looks like you're just makin' stuff up again.

      GISS land only = 0.210506/decade

      BEST land only = 0.263925/decade

      And yes - Cowtan+Way has shown that GISS has a cooling bias.

    58. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      I did think we had cleared this up. There's a big 45 year trend line right there on his graph, and he shows how recent data (NOT the recent trend) fits in with the extrapolated 45 year trend. We can check this by comparing the ACTUAL trend from 1970-2015 with his extrapolated trend, and yes we see they are almost identical. But if we look at the recent 15 year trend we see that cooling has slowed down in recent years. His whole point is that this "slow-down" or "pause" has not effected the long-term trend.

      Clear now?

    59. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Wrong again.

      "GISS dTs is not a land-only dataset but a land-ocean one extrapolated from land stations."

      HadCRUT4 is warmer than GISS? Wrong again. Yes, the long term trends look similar from the late 60's to the early 80's, but then they diverge again. In fact nearly every other start-date shows GISS as warmer. GISS shows a trend from 2000 that is almost double that of HadCRUT4.

      That's two glaring factual mistakes in one small post. Maybe check your facts next time. It's pretty clear you don't really know what you're talking about.

    60. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      From 1970 (the period we are talking about here):

      HADCRU4 = 0.162C/decade

      GISTEMP = 0.162C/decade

      Which is the outlier? You say GISTEMP, but it looks like you're just makin' stuff up again.

    61. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      We can check this by comparing the ACTUAL trend from 1970-2015

      wrong. Try again.

    62. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      From 1970 (the period we are talking about here):

      So now we're talking solely about the long term trend? But I thought Tamino was talking about the recent 15 year trend. What else could he possibly mean when he says: "since the turn of the millennium... global warming has continued and shows no sign of slowing down"?

      Global warming clearly has slowed down since the turn of the millennium! The recent trend is nearly half the 1970 trend! There's been so little warming in recent years that we can't even rule out a cooling trend! Clearly Tamino mis-spoke, or perhaps he is in "activist" mode and trying to spin the facts. Either way, the facts are clear and I have no idea how you manage to deny them with a straight face. http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      To remind you, I spoke of GISS showing the greatest warming in the context of the last 15 years: "As far as a simple linear trend is concerned, it is unlikely that there has been no warming since the beginning of the century, based on GISS data. But it is not at all unlikely if you use any of the other data sets."

      And your response is to pick a single trend to back up your false assertion that GISS is "in the middle of the road"? Wouldn't it be smarter to look at the whole data-set???

      Do you even care that you are factually incorrect so often? Doesn't it bother you?

    63. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The recent trend is nearly half the 1970 trend

      How do you know? Do you understand what statistical significance means. You use those words a lot but you don't seem to understand them... In fact, Tamino shows that there is no evidence that the 1970-2000 trend hasn't continued apace.

      I spoke of GISS showing the greatest warming in the context of the last 15 years

      But the GISS warming is not significantly different from HADCRU for ANY period. Cowtan+Way2014 shows that GISS has a cooling bias.

    64. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The GISS rate of recorded warming since 2000 is almost double that of HadCRUT4. But you argue that since the margins of error overlap that we can't tell for certain? OK, I'm fine with adding a qualification, similar to the one the Met Office supplied when they announced 2014 had the highest numbers but because it was so close to other recent years they couldn't make a meaningful distinction. And that's how it should be: plain honesty; not misleading people like Nasa did. Funny how you can argue both sides when it suits you. Do you even notice?

      Either way, you said GISS was in the "middle of the road." That's just flat out wrong. GISS is at the very top of the range.

      Regarding Tamino, he makes it clear that the trend since 1970 is the same now as it was 15 years ago. However, he also made a false statement when he said temperatures from 2000-2015 show no signs of slowing down. In fact, GISS shows no significant warming trend since 2000. That's a pretty clear "sign" that warming may have slowed down. Facts are facts.

    65. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The GISS rate of recorded warming since 2000 is almost double that of HadCRUT4

      Wrong. They are not significantly different. This failure to understand statistical significance makes everything you said after incorrect.

    66. Re:Bias: but for them - not me! by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Suddenly statistical significance is important to you? But the much closer statistically insignificant difference between "hottest years" doesn't matter to you at all?? DOUBLE STANDARDS? Do you realize when you are being inconsistent? Does it bother you?

      You seem to have missed the part of my post where I AGREED WITH YOU. lol. Could your interpretations be any more self-serving?

  50. The question is.. by exa · · Score: 1

    Will you watch as these imbeciles destroy the future?

    --
    --exa--
  51. Weigh the facts? Not here... by sjbe · · Score: 1

    Used to be that in a democracy we will weight the facts and then vote on a decision.

    What country have you been living in? The actual "facts" are very frequently irrelevant to the voting process. People vote based on what someone tells them the bible says. People vote based on racial prejudices completely unsupported by fact. People vote directly against their own self interest because they believe lies someone else told them. People vote on soundbites over deciding issues they don't even remotely comprehend. People vote in virtually every election on things where their understanding of the facts is wrong, misinformed, disingenuous, etc.

    Weigh the facts? Sometimes but it's hardly the norm. Now had you said people vote on perceptions of the facts I might actually agree.

  52. What it means is - HIGHER GAS TAX by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It gives an excuse to raise taxes on Gas, Coal. And to throw more good money after bad to the "Green" industries that are kicking it back as campaign contributions.

  53. Former zenith still intact by sacrilicious · · Score: 1

    To whatever extent the senate vote was pure idiocy, IMO it still doesn't quite topple the Indiana Pi bill.

    --
    - First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then ???, then profit.
  54. Facts can be ignored by sjbe · · Score: 1

    You see, that's the great thing about science. It's true, they can't just vote it away

    Just because something is factually true doesn't mean our leaders can't choose to ignore it. Science can point out what a rational policy might look like but it's up to the folks we put in office to decide whether or not to actually match policy to those scientific findings.

  55. My issue with global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Also, why is Al Gore not preaching this to the worst world offender China?

    1. Pick your battles.
    If a US politician who has influence in the US can not even get the US to change their policies to a meaningful degree, then what hope does he have with China, a country that is huge, developing into an economic powerhouse, currently experiencing slowly increasing standards of living for its population and with a government that is cold if not outright hostile to western interests?
    2. Hypocrisy is apparently still a big thing in the US. You are still the largest polluters (not just in carbon) per capita in the world, to sustain your lavish lifestyles. I'm not saying I want you to give all that up, but you surely realize that expecting the Chinese to simply agree with the current status and slow their own development because you ask nicely would be a bit foolish?

    Leading by example first requires someone to set an example. People may or may not follow, but at least you now have the moral high ground and did your part, instead of waiting for others to take the first step.

    Finally, I'll address Al Gore's profits from preaching. I don't expect these to be especially lucrative, but even if it is, would that be such a bad thing? If you think there's a huge problem with the world, and you want people to know about it by preaching, wouldn't you be happy when doing so at least covers your living expenses and maybe a little extra for comfort, so that you can continue doing it without worrying about this months rent? He's obviously providing a service that some people find useful, otherwise they wouldn't give him any money. How is that so different from the rest of your beloved capitalism? How is it different from any artist with a message? How is it different from most charities or political organisations?

  56. is there a god yes or no by schlachter · · Score: 1

    next the will be voting on wether there is a god or not...and a room full of idiots believing in imaginary things doesn't make them real. scary precedent.

    --
    My God can beat up your God. Just kidding...don't take offense. I know there's no God.
  57. the word hoax says it all by schlachter · · Score: 1

    hoax is a deliberate attempt to mislead. calling it a hoax is absurd. it would be more appropriate for a vote on god. i.e. is christ a hoax.

    the vote should be, is there sufficient evidence to accept it as highly likely to be true/valid.

    --
    My God can beat up your God. Just kidding...don't take offense. I know there's no God.
  58. not the only thing that doesn't work by democracy by roman_mir · · Score: 2

    Science is not the only thing that does not work by democracy, very few things actually work by democracy.

    Building a better car doesn't work by democracy.
    Economics doesn't work by democracy.
    A wealthy and healthy society doesn't work by democracy.

    An individual is smart, a mob is made of idiotic, selfish, panicky, stupid animals and that's somehow is supposed to produce better results? Ha!

  59. Consensus isn't about voting by sjbe · · Score: 1

    Does that mean we can ALSO expect Global Warming folks to stop spouting the phrase "an overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree on..."
    Or is it ok for one side, but not the other?

    The climate scientist consensus argument is stupid if you think it is an argument to prove that global warming is occurring. That is NOT what the consensus argument is about. Instead it is an argument from authority to establish that the people who actually have seriously looked into this and have weighed the available evidence keep coming to the same conclusion.

    Here's the thing. Very few individuals who claim that global warming is not real are actually well informed on the available evidence and scientific models. They are arguing based on personal desires or opinions or preconceptions but they are not arguing based on known evidence. Conversely the vast majority of scientists who are researching climate and do actually understand the currently available evidence are almost universally coming to the conclusion that the evidence weighs heavily in favor of the conclusion that average temperatures are increasing and that humans are most probably the proximate cause of that change.

    So on one hand we have people arguing from ignorance against climate change while those on the other side of the debate who are fully informed on the topic are almost universally coming to the exact opposite conclusion. Who should you believe? Do you believe the doctor who recommends a medicine that has been shown effective in double blind studies or would you believe the guy trying to sell you a homeopathic remedy which has no supporting evidence whatsoever? When you have a consensus among fully informed scientists on a particular topic, odds are pretty good that they are correct in what they are saying. Scientists have strong incentives to be correct and their work is available (more or less) for all to see and double check. If they are wrong then it is up to those who disagree to prove it. But since those who disagree, almost universally have no actual idea what they are talking about, we have to listen to a bunch of uneducated nonsense from people who lack the good graces to shut up about things they don't understand.

    If those who disagree with the consensus want to do so then all they have to do is find objective evidence of a source for the measured temperature increases other than human sources. That temperatures have gone up on average globally is not in dispute. The evidence for a cause of that warming appears to strongly point towards human activity. To disprove this thesis all someone would have to do is show how a volcano or some other natural phenomena is a better explanation for what we observe.

  60. Economic self interest by sjbe · · Score: 1

    What exactly should we base that policy on, if not for our current best scientific understanding ?

    Generally the answer to this is short term economic self interest. Most of the arguments I see against stuff like curbing CO2 emissions are basically arguments for economic self interest. Economic interests often collide with scientific evidence, at least in the short run.

  61. It worked well enough in 1897... by Kergan · · Score: 1

    ... when they attempted to regulate the value of Pi.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...

  62. Above all else: accuracy! by Layzej · · Score: 1
    Regarding starting at 1970 - a local minimum as you say: this would make the baseline trend between 1970 and 2000 much steeper. It would be even less likely that the recent trend since 2000 would be in line with the expectations set by the baseline -BUT IT IS!

    2 C being a bare minimum

    Here is a quote from the TAR in 2001 - a projection that has not changed in recent reports: "anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2C/decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario"

    So it looks like we are right in line with expectations. If you are concerned about accuracy (as you imply above) then you should quote a source or double check your statements before you post.

    1. Re:Above all else: accuracy! by khallow · · Score: 1
      These reports are predicting high levels of heating in the future.

      So it looks like we are right in line with expectations.

      Only because those expectations are low over the near future.

    2. Re:Above all else: accuracy! by Layzej · · Score: 1

      So.... what's your point? We've seen exactly what we've expected and that is somehow proof that atmospheric physics is a hoax?

    3. Re:Above all else: accuracy! by khallow · · Score: 1

      Huh, I've googled that phrase and have been told it's part of the "Summary for Policy Makers" for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). But when I actually look at the "Summary for Policy Makers", I see either the 0.2/decade increase for that scenario, baldly presented without error bars (see page 11 of the above link) or presented with far larger error bars (0.1 to 0.3 C/decade presented as 1C to 3+ C increase by end of century and the IS92a predicts near linear increase) than your statement suggests. So why do we have a graph with 0.1 to 0.3 C/decade and a written statement with 0.1 to 0.2 C/decade?

      Also, let it be noted that IS92a scenario is not a scenario of the the TAR, but of a previous assessment report. Instead, the TAR presents its own scenarios depending on degree of adoption of non-fossil fuel energy technologies and global dependence on high tech industry. These scenarios uniformly predict a higher temperature increase per decade in the near future than IS92a does, even the scenarios that are more conservative in CO2 emissions.

      Looks to me like someone took the boring prediction of 0.1 to 0.2 C per decade in the IS92a scenario and sexed it up to 0.1 to 0.3 C per decade for the graphs, forgetting to change the old written prediction. Here, we need more than merely being in line with inflated expectations. We also need someone who isn't consistently exaggerating the expectations.

      There's some glaring abuse of charts as well. The chart on page 17, which claims that the effects of CO2 emissions will even in the face of substantial reductions in CO2 emissions from today will remain at elevated levels indefinitely even over the course of a 1,000 years. But there's nothing on the Y axis. It's touchie feelie curve drawing mixed with a huge assumption about how carbon sinking won't work.

  63. Newtonian physics still works fine in its limits by peter303 · · Score: 1

    Better explanations for high velocities, high gravitational fields or very small.

  64. It's just as silly when scientists do it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Science by consensus is just as nutty and meaningless.

  65. This had nothing to do with science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The U.S. has confiscated all the oil in the world to back up the U.S. dollar. If the government were to give every citizen a thousand dollars a day the currency would still be valuable because everyone else in the world needs this currency to buy oil. It's just a game.

  66. Stone Age ended, but not for lack of stones. by Layzej · · Score: 2

    Not sure what is meant by 'dire', but warming is in line with expectations. Here is a quote from the IPCC TAR in 2001 - a projection that has not changed in recent reports: "anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2C/decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario" That is exactly what we have seen.

    Regarding fuel supplies, Saudi Arabia plans to pump everything they can while people are still interested in oil. They do not believe they will run out:

    "Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil - and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil."

    "in a world where a producer sees the end of its market on the horizon, then every barrel sold at a profit is more valuable than a barrel that will never be sold. Current Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi had this to say about production cuts in late December: "it is not in the interest of OPEC to cut their production whatever the price is," adding that even if prices fell to $20 "it is irrelevant." Implied, if not explicitly stated, is that Saudi Arabia wants its oil out of the ground, regardless of how thin its profit margin per barrel becomes." - http://www.nasdaq.com/article/...

  67. A Small, Little Problem... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The article oversimplifies.
    The things it says are only true where scientists were ALWAYS honest, and ALWAYS pursue the data, wherever it leads.

    In the real world, we have scientists who have their own agendas, who have published slanted, cherry-picked data, and helped create the situation we now have - where politicos get to decide what is "real".

    I would like to believe that most scientists are honest people, but given human tendencies, I may be asking too much.

  68. AGW "Cure" akin to Chemo for Cancer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Think about the AGW debate in terms of the treatment for cancer. If you have cancer you are willing to undergo treatments that can and often do tremendous damage to your body, and might even kill you, because the alternative, certain death, is so much worse. However, would you voluntarily undergo treatments such as chemo and radiation if you weren't 100% certain that you did indeed have cancer? This is the argument at the heart of AGW. The supporters of AGW have no actual proof that man is a significant contributor to "climate change", and indeed because of that lack of proof and lack of cooperation of the data over the past 15 or so years they have even had to rename the malady from "global warming" to "climate change" in order to obfuscate the description of the symptoms so that it's much harder to refute with hard data. In essence what the supporters of AGW are saying is that we must accept radical measures (i.e. carbon taxes, massive transfers of wealth, the turning over of control of energy, and hence control of the economy, over to government, and perhaps to a world government in order to ensure "fairness) which will have the same effects on the world economy as chemo and radiation would on a human body. Yet, they cannot conclusively prove that such radical and disruptive measures are truly necessary. Instead they resort to the tactics of fear and of the late night infomercial pitchmen with cries of "We must act now before it's too late!". You can just hear the pitchman on those infomercials expressing in a tone of great urgency: "Have your credit card ready, you must act now while supplies last!". These tactics are designed to appeal to emotions, not reason.

    All by itself people should be highly skeptical of anyone who attempts to convince you to do something that on the surface appears to be against your own best interests (in this case paying higher taxes and giving up more control of your life) with an emotion laced appeal designed to overwhelm your critical thinking skills and goad you into an immediate action without further thought, especially when these kinds of tactics are being justified as being based in science. Would you trust a doctor who told you that you might have cancer, but offers no ironclad proof, and then says you must act now and sign papers granting him authority to immediately treat you with chemo, radiation, and surgery, at great expense and danger to you and profit to him, just in case? This is what the supporters of AGW are asking the world to do.

  69. Debates, yes. Votes, no. by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    Yes, scientists debate. Hopefully they do. But hopefully differently than politicians or daytime talk show trash. The difference is that politicians along with the other trash don't listen. They just spew their side and THEY ARE RIGHT AND PERIOD!

    Scientists on the other hand present their findings and actually expect a rebuttal. If they are serious about science and not just trying to get some grant money. Science is about questioning. You present your theory, then I present my questions that punch hole into it, then you can patch those holes, alter your theory or fold. Or I may present a theory based on yours that describes better what we observe. And in the end, we will probably, with a bit of luck, find truth. At least for the time being, 'til someone comes and says "ahem, I found something that contradicts your theory...", and then the whole spiel starts anew.

    There is no voting process in this. We don't sit there at the end, our competing theories carved into stone, unyielding and immobile, everyone convinced that he, and he alone, is right, no matter what the other side said, no matter what the other side presented, and then we simply cast a vote on who is right. That's not scientific.

    That's democratic.

    Science is not democratic. Just because 90% say A it needn't be true. For reference see miasma theory, aether theory, geocentrism...

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  70. What's next voting if Santa Clause is a hoax? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Then we can move onto more important issues like voting on whether jesus, the moon landing, and homosexuality are hoaxes too.

    MADNESS

  71. Global Warming is a complete joke. by DrPeper · · Score: 0

    Ok so the idiot US government is wasting time debating something completely aside from the point so that they don't have to deal with the real issue. Whether or not global warming is human caused is a dodge. Because IF global warming is affected by man the root problem is global population. It isn't what people are doing that is affecting the climate it's HOW MANY people that are doing it that IS affecting the climate. Human population growth is exponential. So the time to do something about population control has already come and gone. So attempting to do something about global warming is an object lesson in futility.

  72. Wrong Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You almost had it right. What they should vote on is...

    Should the US Government adopt a policy that maintains the world climate at some preferred point?
    If so, what point should that be?

    If there are impacts does it matter if they are man-made or not? If its better to have it a bit hotter do we care how we get there? If it is better to have it a bit colder does it matter how we got there?

  73. Feynman summed it up by Rollgunner · · Score: 1

    In his closing comment in his report on the Shuttle Challenger Accident Investigation report:

    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled."

  74. Re:not the only thing that doesn't work by democra by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    thank you for reminding us of how enthusiastically you endorse slavery and religious fascism as 'alternatives' to democracy. you should just reuse this post for all of your comments rather than pumping out blatant lies to try to trick people like you do in so many of your other comments.
     
    how fitting that the captcha is 'threats'

  75. Politics by Chess_the_cat · · Score: 0

    First it was "The Greenhouse Effect" but people love greenhouses because they're full of beautiful plants and flowers so that was out. Then it was "Global Warming." But the globe wasn't warming so that had to go. Then it was "Climate Change." But the climate wasn't actually changing so had to dump that one too. Now it's Climate Justice because who doesn't want justice?

    --
    Support the First Amendment. Read at -1
  76. Neither does... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...science by decree.

  77. Well based on the hundreds of chemtrails in vegas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    im guessing it will have an effect, all the rothschilds/NWO/Banksters/Military industrial complex's spraying the population with chemicals that heat the atmosphere

  78. Well.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yea it doesn't work. But the majority also got to vote on the flatness of the planet, and that persisted for a while.

    Source: http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/cms/

  79. You say tomato by RandomFactor · · Score: 1

    I say vegetable.

    --
    --- Mercutio was right.
  80. Snowball Earth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth

    It says "hypothesis" but I would argue that it is now "theory" because they've found glacier-deposited boulders at the equator.

  81. 3 Men Make a Tiger by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If 3 studies say something works really well, 1 study says it doesn't work at all, and 1 study says that cats from Mars are responsible for the positive results, then it's decided that the thing in question works really well? Isn't that just another form of Majority Rules?

  82. Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

    The last 17 years show warming: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/g... . Regardless, there is very rarely a time when you cannot find a value of x such that you can say "There has been no warming since x!" For instance, this year was a record hot year. Unless next year is another record year we will be able to say "There has been no warming since 2014!" So what? For the entire record you can find a value of x that satisfies the statement. Yet we have warmed over the entire period: http://www.skepticalscience.co...

    1. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      First, this year MAY have been a record hot year, but likely not. We're talking differences of hundredths of a degree and Nasa forgot to mention the error bars in their big press release...

      I said the last 17 years shows no statistically significant warming. To be more precise: the Nasa data shows no statistically significant warming for 15 years, Hadcrut4 shows no warming for 17 years, UAH for 18 years, Hadcrut3 for 20 years, and RSS for 22 years.

      No need for bizarre overlapping trend-lines like in that straw-man graphic you posted by Sks. Which skeptics were doing that? I'll tell you: none. They also say skeptics start their trend-lines at the height of the '98 peak to manufacture a negative trend. Again, who does that? No skeptic I know of. Shoddy shoddy shoddy, but AGW proponents swallow it whole-cloth. They just make shit up over there. I'm sorry you fell for it.

    2. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Nasa forgot to mention the error bars

      Yes - they were cleverly hidden and directly addressed in the press call when the record was announced. Only the cleverest of deniers could have possibly found it hiding in plain site and released during the announcement. Only the cleverest denier could claim another of these years was hottest: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/i...

      Tell me clever, clever bloke. Which of those years is hottest?

      skeptics start their trend-lines at the height of the '98 peak to manufacture a negative trend. Which skeptics were doing that?

      No skeptic, clearly. But this guy sure was: http://slashdot.org/comments.p...

      Hadcrut4 shows no warming for 17 years

      What - starting from 1998? But no one does that! Anyway - easily shown to be wrong: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/h...

      UAH for 18 years

      Now I know you can use woodfortrees.org so you must know this is also wrong: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/u...

      Hadcrut3 for 20 years

      Wrong again! http://woodfortrees.org/plot/h...

      RSS for 22 years

      Now I am starting to see a trend.... WRONG! http://woodfortrees.org/plot/r...

    3. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Gavin Schmidt said there was only a 38% chance 2014 was the hottest year. Take it up with him.

      It occurred to me that I should qualify EACH AND EVERY statement with "statistically significant" rather than just the first but I thought there was no way you would be so pedantic since the context should have been obvious.

      Regardless, even unqualified the statements are accurate since you can't claim a warming trend if a cooling trend or a trend of zero can't be ruled out. Otherwise skeptics could argue that the earth has cooled since 1997, according to RSS data. (And I'm sure there are some unscrupulous skeptics somewhere making that specious argument.) http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

      Regarding Hadcrut4 data, there has been no *statistically significant* warming for 17 years, since mid-1997. It will be 18 years of no *statistically significant* warming in about 4 or 5 months. Shouldn't have been hard to figure out if you'd thought about it for half a second, since we're only a few weeks into 2015. But then you would have lost an opportunity to throw mud.

      It seems we have reached the point where you are grasping at straws.

    4. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Gavin Schmidt said...

      There is no other year with as great a claim on the title of the hottest year. Usain Bolt won in 2008 by only 0.02 seconds. Who holds the gold? Does uncertainty allow for others to make the claim for gold? Who gets to take it home? Is there maybe a conspiracy to hide the uncertainty? Did the Olympic judges fail to mention uncertainty? What, not even hidden in the press release?

      It occurred to me that I should qualify EACH AND EVERY statement with "statistically significant"

      It occurs to me that you do not know what 'statistically significant' means.

      Otherwise skeptics could argue that the earth has cooled since 1997, according to RSS data

      You appear to think that 0 holds some special position on the graph. According to RSS the world HAS cooled over the period. Skeptics Spencer and Christy believe that satellite orbit degradation is more likely since RSS is using older satellites that do not maintain orbit. You may prefer to disregard all other evidence in favour of the minority report.

    5. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      So now sports scores are akin to scientific data? But yes, clearly if there were error bars in the Olympics then times that were extremely close and within the margin of error should be considered tied. Otherwise what would be the point of having error bars?

      If there is only a 38% chance that 2014 was the hottest year, doesn't it follow that there's a 62% chance it was some other year?

      As to RSS, they adjust for such things. But sure, open that can of worms. I'd be happy to start looking closely at all the data adjustments and infilling performed on the GISS temperature data. (Actually I generally don't pay much attention to the two outlying data sets (GISS and RSS). But it goes to show that the data is sacrosanct until it says something you don't like. Suddenly it's not trustworthy.)

    6. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      clearly if there were error bars in the Olympics

      There are. Whether you draw them or not.

      then times that were extremely close and within the margin of error should be considered tied

      So who won gold in 2008? Do you think that was also part of a grand conspiracy?

    7. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      Ae you arguing that since they pick winners in sports regardless of uncertainties, that we should likewise ignore uncertainties in science and simply "pick a winner"? Wow.

    8. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      if it is of interest to know which year is the warmest then why not let people know about it? No year has anywhere near as great a claim to the title of 'hottest year' as 2014. Despite your ravings, all uncertainties were included along with the announcement. You seem unable to deal with uncertainty, but so what?

    9. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The fact remains, the odds are 2014 was NOT the hottest year. Do you dispute that? Apparently you are uncomfortable with uncertainty since you need a clear-cut "winner" when it's clearly a statistical tie. This is not a sporting event.

      What if the highest probability was 5% and the next highest was 3%? That would mean there's a 95% chance it's NOT the hottest year, but by your logic they can still make the opposite assertion.

      Zeke Hausfather seems to understand what "margins of error" mean. He wrote in 2008 that "the variance in temperature between these [record] years is all within the margin of error of the respective dataset, so year-by-year rankings are not that meaningful." http://www.yaleclimateconnecti...

      "Not that meaningful." I guess I shouldn't expect that kind of plain honesty in a NASA press release. NASA scientists seem more interested in politics and staying "on message".

    10. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      2014 was NOT the hottest year

      So which year was? There will always be uncertainty, so we should never say that any year is hotter than another? That's just silly.

      "Not that meaningful." I guess I shouldn't expect that kind of plain honesty in a NASA press release. NASA scientists seem more interested in politics and staying "on message".

      HA HA HA HA HA! You've swallowed the denier conspiracy theories hook line and sinker! Here's what the head of NASA's climate group said:

      This is also despite the fact that differences of a few hundredths of a degree are simply not that important to any key questions or issues that might be of some policy relevance. A record year doesn’t appreciably affect attribution of past trends, nor the projection of future ones. It doesn’t re-calibrate estimated impacts or affect assessments of regional vulnerabilities. Records are obviously more expected in the presence of an underlying trend, but whether they occur in 2005, 2010 and 2014, as opposed to 2003, 2007 and 2015 is pretty much irrelevant. - http://www.realclimate.org/ind...

    11. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      There's a big difference between what's "important" and what's statistically "meaningful". I say it's not meaningful because it's well within the margin of error, and according to NASA it probably was not the hottest year anyway. If it were outside the margin of error it would be statistically meaningful, but yes, still "not that important". (I'm not sure why you brought it up if you agree it's not important.)

      Regardless, I wonder why they didn't bother mentioning such nuances in their press release.

      "But collectively we do seem to have an apparent fondness for arbitrary thresholds (like New Years Eve, 10 year anniversaries, commemorative holidays etc.) before we take stock of something. It isn’t a particularly rational thing... but people seem to be naturally more interested in the record holder than in the also-rans."

      It's seems clear from the above that the press release was more about PR than it was about science; the impression they left with most people is much different than the reality. Do you think that was by accident?

      Of course you will call me a conspiracy nut for not accepting everything the US government says at face value. I think that's naive. You probably really believed there was WMD in Iraq and must now believe it was all just an honest mistake. Otherwise by your own definition you are a conspiracy nut.

    12. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      2014 was the hottest year on record. No other year has anywhere near as strong a claim. Usain Bolt won a world record in 2008. Get over it.

    13. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      2010 has a 23% "claim". The chances that another year was hotter is 62%. (That's "more than half".) The AP is now correcting the mistake: http://bigstory.ap.org/article...

      Maybe you should explain to them that error bars don't matter.

    14. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      2014 was the hottest year. That is what we measured. There are uncertainties with the measurement that mean some other year may in fact have been hotter, but that's not what we measured on GISS, NOAA, or JMS.

    15. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      As I've said before, that approach breaks down rather quickly. What if the highest probability was 10% and the next highest was 8%? That would mean there's a 90% chance it's NOT the hottest year, but by NASA's logic they can still make the opposite assertion.

      Of course, this whole discussion assumes the data is good. I don't know what to make of this quite yet, but an adding an extra 2degC to raw temperature data does seem rather high.

      https://notalotofpeopleknowtha...

      And considering the sparse thermometer coverage, how can they claim to be accurate to within hundredths of a degree?

    16. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1
      2014 is hottest. That's what they measured. Get over it.

      And considering the sparse thermometer coverage, how can they claim to be accurate to within hundredths of a degree?

      Oh you are thick. What do you think the uncertainty represents?

    17. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      And considering the sparse thermometer coverage, how can they claim to be accurate to within hundredths of a degree?

      Oh you are thick. What do you think the uncertainty represents?

      I do find it hard to believe that yearly global temperatures can be measured to an accuracy of ±0.05C, as they state on their FAQ. Are they misleading people with that number? Is the uncertainty actually much larger? Do tell.

      http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gist...

    18. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I do find it hard to believe...

      Argument from incredulity. Means nothing.

    19. Re:Going down the up escalator by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      It's not an argument at all. It's a question: "considering the sparse thermometer coverage, how can they claim to be accurate to within hundredths of a degree?" You seemed to suggest I was misunderstanding something. You asked: "What do you think the uncertainty represents?" You tell me. I'm only going by what they tell the public on their website. Is that information misleading in some way?

      Apparently ad hominems are acceptable to you but "argument from incredulity" is not. It seems you have double standards.

    20. Re:Going down the up escalator by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Questions end in question marks. Your statement was "I do find it hard to believe..." Whether or not you find something hard to believe is irrelevant. Also, you don't know what ad hominem means. Please look it up.

  83. AC != AC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    First you say ....

    You just have brought proof to how fallible a humans reasoning is, and how he will ignore info when it does not match his preconceptions.

    Even though you, as a regular, are quite likely well aware that any vistor who posts gets the nick AC and the oddity of, according to you, someone just having made an U-turn in his reasoning wasn't enough to make you stop and reconsider.

    For clarity: The "you" in the above quote and the person who wrote the post you tagged yours on are not the same one.

    By the way:

    and the data shows a clear continuation

    What didn't you understand from my opening line that

    ... after supposedly having been tinkered the crap outof

    ? Thats the whole problem, the data and its handling not being trustworthy (I already mentioned for which reasons).

    Heck, even several computer simulations of the (supposedly human influenced) climate change based on the available data have shown to be of no help, as there seems to be no way to get a consistent result outof them -- minor changes to the used formulae giving wildly different results, ranging from ice-ages to getting cooked. And thats not really a surprise, as any detail being accumulated often enough will give result in a big end-result.

    So, there we are: You with your belief that the presented data is flawless and all thats deduced from it will (thus?) actually happen, while I have have my doubts about the data itself, and the people who created it.

    And before you go call anyone critical of the "climate change caused by humans is a fact" a denier, somewhere in the dark ages most of human kind where convinced that witches rode on broomsticks thru the air. Now we snicker a bit because of those peoples gullibility ...

  84. 3 Wolves and a lamb by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Democracy is 3 wolves and a lamb voting on what to eat for lunch. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote! - One of the USA founding guys.

    The biggest problem with science today isn't that idiots are voting in congress on various issues. The biggest problem is that science is for sale. You want what results? No problem. For a fee I'll be happy to be your result-that-you-want-man!

    On the subject of climate change (funny how the name changed from "global warming" isn't it?) here is Dr Brown of Duke university with his take on how "global warming / climate change" became such a catch all for scientists and all the other problems with the IPCC models

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/06/real-science-debates-are-not-rare/

  85. Why all those? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why does it need to be so much like fossil fuel that it can only be answered with fossil fuels for you to accept it?

    Tell me, when we run out of fossil fuel petroleum, what energy density will you replace it with? Hope? Prayer?

  86. But policy is NOT science by FreedomFirstThenPeac · · Score: 1

    While no one has ever suggested that science is subject to voting, it is naive to claim that opinion does not guide publication. If I wanted to argue data that showed the speed of light in vacuum was much different from the current estimate, my evidence has to be much better than if I were simply confirming a widely held number. AND, it is perfectly reasonable for a political body to declare that pi is 3.1416 for all calculations used in contracts and surveying. Not so reasonable is to hold that planning commissions cannot use the best science when planning for long terms (which they do, by their nature). See North Carolina's actions, which blocked use of the science.

    But, in my opinion the best hedge we have is banks and insurance companies. As long as they are permitted to do the math, we will be safe (unless they are prevented from using their best estimates by social engineering in the "democratic" body politic). For example, in New Orleans I bet rational assessment of long term risk would hurt the poor the most, making for irrational attempts to legislate away risk by blocking its use in assessing mortgages, etc. Think of the whole real estate bubble and the good intentions but bad ideas that made home ownership a right, not to be denied just because the owner could not afford it.

    --
    "There is no god but allah" - well, they got it half right.
  87. But we are not a democracy either. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10769041/The-US-is-an-oligarchy-study-concludes.html

  88. Re:not the only thing that doesn't work by democra by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

    Ah, the fallacy of the excluded middle. Everything is yes or no, black or white. No "50 Shades of Grey" for YOU!

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.