Netflix Algorithm Tells You When Your Best Employee Is About To Leave You

An anonymous reader writes "Former Netflix data scientist Mohammad Sabah has used the basis of the video-streaming company's movie-recommendation engine to create a new system to predict when valuable employees are likely to leave your company for pastures new. The new application 'Workday Talent Insights' uses the basis of the engine to correlate diverse factors such as interval between promotions and current length of tenure with equivalent job opportunities at employment websites, in order to gauge 'corporate restlessness', and provide options for employers who identify potential leavers."

Comments

Easy

[halivar]

Has the employee been watching Office Space on repeat? He's about to leave.

Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Viol8]

- Have they turned up in a suit one day when they normally where jeans and t-shirt and disappear off for an extra long lunchbreak?
- Have they started arriving late and leaving early?
- Do they skip meetings more often?
- Have they hinted about a payrise in the last assessment?
- Has their work quality gone off a cliff and they spend most of the day on social media or youtube?

If YES is the answer to 2 or more of those then yes, probably they're looking to leave.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Anonymous Coward]

It's amazing how true this is... as a manager, I can predict when an employee is going to leave 1-2 months before they give notice. It's often subtle changes in their routine that become red flags - so subtle I doubt they even realize they have changed.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[fibonacci8]

- Have they been turned down for a raise when they've demonstrated they're consistently making the company more money than when they were first hired?

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[houghi]

Once I knew people were leaving, I talked to them asking why and then helped them in any way I could.

I never tried to hold them back. Their decision was taken, so why bother them? If they wanted references, I gave good (and honest) ones to their potential new employer. I also would inform what I would say to the emplyee, so it would be up to them if they wanted to use me or not.

This would mean in the end that they would be much more willing to do their time with us, which can still be several months (in Belgium). It also would enable me to hire new people who would then be trained by the person leaving.

When I wanted to leave, I always went to my manager and explained why. They were always happy that I did that and gave positive feedback and helped me with everything I asked for as much as possible.

One even gave me the address of a company that were looking for what I was looking for (didn't work out).

Karma goes a long way and there is no reason to burn your bridges.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Anonymous Coward]

This, entirely this. Saved a company over half a million dollars(or more) in lost time once by doing something that wasn't even my job only to be told I was not able to get a raise because my title didn't warrant it, oh and I couldn't get a new title. Within 2 years of leaving I'm on the verge of being triple my salary there. If you're not willing to pay someone what they are worth once they've proved their worth, you can bet someone else is.

Re: Managers need an algorithm for that?

[jrumney]

Yeah, that's pretty much how it goes. I don't normally wear jeans to work though.

In some workplaces that could be considered inappropriate, in others it may depend on your style of underwear.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[BVis]

That works for European employers, it's much harder to fire someone in general than it is in the USA.

When a manager finds out someone is leaving, one of the following happens:

1) They're fired on the spot and escorted from the building;
2) The manager tries to guilt them into staying;
3) A pathetic counter-offer is made (nevermind that the reasons for leaving may not have anything to do with compensation);
4) A significant counter-offer is made (usually intended to keep the worker there just long enough to hire a replacement).

Occasionally what you describe happens. It's rare in my experience. Look at it from the employer's point of view; to this point in the employee's time there, they have been able to do pretty much whatever they want w/r/t the worker. No binding job descriptions, arbitrary re-assignment, (for exempt employees) forcing them to work 60, 70, 80 hour weeks with no extra pay, making them do the work of three people for a single salary, etc etc etc. The playing field is heavily tilted in their favor. So, it comes as a shock and an insult when the employee exercises the one right that US workers really have: They can quit. How DARE they! Don't they know that the company will only make 6 bazillion dollars instead of 6.5 if they leave? WON'T SOMEONE THINK OF THE SHAREHOLDERS!

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[BVis]

I don't know about you, but I couldn't make ends meet for long on unemployment payments. They can also make your life difficult by fighting the claim and making shit up out of whole cloth at the hearing.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[PRMan]

The same thing happened to me. I saved a company a million dollars a year. Then I got a bad review because I missed a meeting (I proved that I wouldn't get e-mail notifications if I was the last person invited because of some weird Outlook bug) and I quoted the customer saying they were "pissed" (direct quote) while everyone else especially the CxOs went around dropping f-bombs like they were using them up before they spoiled.

Yeah, I wasn't there much longer.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[praxis]

If 70% of your salary is not enough to make ends meet, you are living well beyond your means.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Thanshin]

Knowing my past bosses, they need less succinct clues:

- Did they set up the job search page as browser's default?
- Did they ask you to check their CV?
- Did they tell you "That's it! I'm leaving this fucking hell hole!"
- Did they stop coming every morning?

And, the one good clue:
- When you called them on their personal phone to ask if they were "ill, or something", Did they answer "I LEFT THE COMPANY TWO WEEKS AGO, YOU FUCKING RETARD!"?

If the answer to all of the above is yes. Please, for the love of God, stop sending SMSs to their personal phone. They will never come back and they don't care you get fired if you don't make it to the shipping date.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Sir_Eptishous]

If 70% of your salary is not enough to make ends meet, you are living well beyond your means.

Welcome to America!

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Sir_Eptishous]

I work in an "at will" state, and yes, anyone can leave at any time.
However, HR will inform you that leaving before the normally accepted two weeks notice means you won't be considered for employment there again.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[pla]

If 70% of your salary is not enough to make ends meet, you are living well beyond your means.

Most states cap that - Mine caps it at just about $350/week. That doesn't even cover my mortgage.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[pnutjam]

Unemployment pays peanuts. The trick is to get your notice in first, then they are required to pay you for whatever notice period they require even if they walk you out of the building.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[pnutjam]

I agree, I don't negotiate. I expect to be treated fairly and valued, or I will get that somewhere else. I'm the Ron White of employees.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[mwvdlee]

Subtle things like...
- Not being so darn stubborn when a salesperson sells a 12 month project to be delivered in 3 months.
- Taking up leave days, even though running behind on schedule.
- No longer working late or taking work home.
- Generally being cheerful and somehow more "care free".

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Anonymous Coward]

A. It tops out at $450/week in California
B. It took me 10 months of appeals to see $0.01

If I had structured debt or other liabilities I would have been homeless.

Re: Managers need an algorithm for that?

[jsepeta]

underwear is for suckers

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[BVis]

At-will means two things:

1) They can fire you with no notice and no reason at any time.
2) You can quit and walk out with no notice and no stated reason at any time.

On paper, that seems fair. However, it's tilted in the employer's favor because most of the time losing a job is much worse for the employee than it is for the employer.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[pla]

With the exception of companies that treat employees so abusively that they just leave in the middle of the afternoon in a torrent of obscenities, for the most part it works as follows:

Employee finds a new job. Employee gives two weeks notice (or more, sometimes). Employer escorts employee off the premises immediately and pays them for two weeks of "vacation".

or...

Employee gets called to a random meeting. On entering, employee sees his manager, one HR person, and possibly one random middle-management "witness" (point #1 - If you ever encounter this situation, immediately demand to have your own witness present, because they legally can and will lie to you about every materially relevant aspect of the ensuing discussion). They hand employee a pile of papers, ask for a bunch of signatures (point #2 - You have no obligation to sign a damned thing, this counts as your last bit of leverage to negotiate for things like prolonged severance, and some of it, such as anticompetes, you do not ever want to sign at an exit interview no matter what they offer you). Employer escorts employee off the premises immediately and pays them for two weeks (or as negotiated) of severance pay.

And yes, for any European friends reading this, that counts as the norm in most of the US. Companies really only deviate from that script in one situation - They so desperately need the employee that the employee actually leaving would temporarily cripple a significant portion of the company. In that case, they play nice and pretend to let you stick around for an extra two weeks - Meanwhile, your computer access drops to the point that you can't do anything but play solitaire (if even that), and you suddenly have a shadow ostensibly there to "facilitate" your knowledge dump (because rookies from security make excellent facilitators, of course).

Re: Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Austerity Empowers]

I'd prefer the suckers took off my underwear first.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[JohnFen]

Yes, this. And that's worse than it sounds because when potential employers call to confirm your work history there, the key question they will ask is "are they eligible for rehire?" "Yes" is taken as "they were a decent employee", and "No" is taken as "stay far away from them."

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[Anonymous Coward]

Good thing it's never possible to lose ones job during a soft real estate market. Or be new to the job market and start with a company that soon fails. Or have unexpected health related costs. Or you know, anything else that even a smug bastard might find financially difficult to deal with. I'm amazed how anit-people you folks are over there.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[wisnoskij]

Well more like it makes sense to have redundant employees so that no single one can cost you big by moving out. But then all things equal the company who pays for redundant talent will go bankrupt competing with the company that has just coasted on luck for the last decade or less.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[digitalPhant0m]

If 70% of your salary is not enough to make ends meet, you are living well beyond your means.

Or a home owner.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[afidel]

If the loss of any one employee can cost the business millions then it is in their interest to make sure that there is another person who can perform that job. In IT disaster preparedness planning we often refer to this as the hit by the bus disaster where a key individual is taken out of action without warning. Any well run company will have identified these key people and will have planned to cross train others in their department to at least pick up the daily tasks they perform until a replacement can be hired and trained.

Re:Managers need an algorithm for that?

[just another AC]

Subtle things like...
- Not being so darn stubborn when a salesperson sells a 12 month project to be delivered in 3 months.
- Taking up leave days, even though running behind on schedule.
- No longer working late or taking work home.
- Generally being cheerful and somehow more "care free".

So other than the first point, an employee is about to leave when they try to strike some kind of sensible work life balance... says something pretty sad about our industry.

Hits Home

[DumbSwede]

This type of monitoring makes me nervous.

I have a job where a few years ago I looked at some job opportunities on a Job Site. The very next day my manager came to me asking if I was happy with my job, which in general I was, but I was unnerved that they knew I was looking at the other options. I suspect they used a honey pot job listing. I decided my job security at that time was more important than looking for other opportunities so I stopped looking altogether. If I was to job hunt to today I would do so much more surreptitiously and under a pseudonym, at least initially.

I am well compensated at my job, but dislike the idea that they are aware of my activities outside of work.

Re:Hits Home

[ultranova]

I am well compensated at my job, but dislike the idea that they are aware of my activities outside of work.

You dislike it and the employer likes it for the same reason: it makes you position on the job market worse. And since they already have a stronger position, there's little you can do about it short of unionizing. But unionizing makes above average talent relatively - though not necessarily absolutely - worse off, and everyone likes thinking they're better than average. That combination of ego and selfishness is easy to turn into a weapon to make people act against their own best interests: all you have to do is tell them they deserve it better than someone else, and will get their due if they only forget solidarity with them. And when it's their turn to be eaten, there's none left to stand with them, so they fall.

Not that it really matters. The revolution of the proletariat failed, but it seems the bourgeoisie is perfectly capable of destroying the entire superstructure their might depends on without anyone's assistance. You can't have a business without customers, you can't have customers if people don't have money, and they can't get money without wages or social security. The only real question is: with communism discredited, what happens when the downward spiral reaches the point of no return? You can't maintain social cohesion without any kind of ideology when bread and circuses stop coming. Will we see the return of fascism, will someone come up with something entirely new, or will civilization simply collapse?

Re:Hits Home

[danbert8]

Yes indeed. That's what happened to me. A "safety violation" when you get back from a work trip leaves you jobless and without benefits... Don't spend a lot of time thinking about getting a new job. When you decide it isn't working out, find something else, don't do what I did and make an elaborate plan to quit on a certain day next year and then take a nice vacation.

Re:Hits Home

[schnell]

Communism has the workers owning the means of production, while the only "attempts" have involved the government owning the means of production. Those are only compatible if the workers own the government, and I don't think that's ever been the case of any government in the history of human civilization. *Certainly* it wasn't the case in any of the so-called "communist" countries.

The irony here is that capitalism actually provides the most direct way for workers to own the means of production - through holding equity in the company. The ownership of any individual is miniscule (other than founders, executives, etc.) but there are numerous examples of "employee-owned" companies in which the Marxist ideal has been more fully realized than in any Communist nation to date.

There is also an inherent contradiction in every attempt to date to implement a Communist government. As you point out, if the government owns the means of production, the workers don't own it in turn unless they have control of the government, which can only be accomplished through Democracy. Every Communist government established during the 20th century was a single-party or totalitarian state, but arguably that's unavoidable because you will never find a Communist government (not talking about Socialist, but Communist) that is freely elected by a majority of its citizens because many aspects of Communism involve taking away property, land, etc. from the people who currently own it in order to "share" it among the population. Communism has historically always come to power through revolution or outside imposition, and human nature makes it highly unlikely for those who have won power in that way to ever risk losing it through enabling Democracy.

So I think history tends to prove for us that the ideal of a Communist state on a large scale achieving its original goal of worker ownership of the means of production to be inherently flawed. Then again, it can also be argued that the Marxist idea of Communism was a response to an Industrial Revolution status quo which has changed dramatically in the past 150 years and needs to be largely rethought to have modern relevance anyway...

Re:Hits Home

[erapert]

Have you considered the concept of having everyone consume their own productivity? It's literally the workers owning the means of production.

If they want more then they can produce more. If they don't care then let them produce less. All it requires is that we stand by the principle that "if you don't work then you don't eat".

Wait... isn't there a name for this already?

Re:Hits Home

[maestroX]

Will we see the return of fascism, will someone come up with something entirely new, or will civilization simply collapse?

Yes (unrestricted corporatism). Yes (Snowden). Yes (Peak oil).

Netflix recommendations

[QuietLagoon]

I've not seen any reason to think that the Netflix recommendations are anything to write home about, or even watch.

.
The Netflix recommendations I'm watched were out of my range of likes and/or taste.

So, based upon my experience with the Netflix recommendation algorithm, I'd be wary of this new application.

Bah, cue the evil ...

[gstoddart]

Of course what will happen in reality is companies will use this to maximize the amount of shit and abuse they can heap on employees before they actually leave, and ensure that by the time they do you no longer need to care.

The sociopaths who run corporations don't give a crap about employee retention or loyalty, just grinding them down into compliance.

There's no fucking way corporations will use this in some enlightened, self-aware attempt to keep employees happy.

Opportunity plus

[OzPeter]

Combine this with Googles new automated interview techniques and you can have people being moved automatically from company to company!

Imagine waking up and getting a message saying

Dear OzPeter,
We are sorry to hear that ABC Widget company has let you go. But don't worry, overnight you details were submitted to 14 different companies in your area who subscribe to Googles "Match Me" recruiting service. Based on information automatically provided by ABC Widget co through their Netflix firing algorithm, 9 of those companies bid on you, and we are happy to announce that you are now employed by XYZ Financial services.

Congratulations on your new position!

Please see the attached map to find your way to your new place of work.

Would you like us to update your:
Facebook status y/n?
Linked In profile: y/n?
Twitter account: y/n?
MySpace page: y/n?

Re:Opportunity plus

[neurovish]

Hmmm, well as long as Match Me is smart enough to get a minimum % pay bump with each move, doesn't hire me off to a place too far away, and the work at ABC Widget is interesting....I hate job hunting/interviewing.

Re:Opportunity plus

[Anonymous Coward]

Like most of the world, Google's Match Me service doesn't even use Google+.

Re:Opportunity plus

[Em Adespoton]

Yeah; as long as it did a good job and knew that I value work/life balance more than pay, I'd be pretty happy with such a system.

Silly valley Talent war?

[plopez]

Really? When they throw away people over 40 and over 50% of the population is considered unqualified due to being the wrong gender there is no talent shortage, but management myopia. You have to wonder how many 'restless employees' are looking because they know they will soon be thrown away.

conversely.

[nimbius]

Im sure an easy algorythm can be generated for when management is about to push a valuable employee out the door:

1. have you turned every change or alteration into a mindless bureaucratic rats nest of meetings and superfluous documentation that could best be handled through email?
2. Have you allowed the most vocal customers and users to continuously abuse his talent and divert his attention to helpdesk issues that make you look good at his expense?
3. Have you refused to consider his technical opinion on the design or development of a product or solution and instead just done what the sales rep told you or what would cause the least number of meetings or beurocratic effort?
4. Have you placed overwhelming reliance on him to micromanage his coworkers changes and projects instead of working to ensure they properly document and communicate instead? did he receive a silent promotion to assitant management?

Re:but it's ok to toss the lower class out anytime

[Needs2BeSaid]

The "children of privilege" fund Research and Development projects that lead to medical and technological advancements. Bill Gates gives more to charity in a week than you will give over your entire lifetime.

Let me help you with adding more time to that.

[Anonymous Coward]

If you give an employee an awesome review, but tell him that due to your budget, you can only give a cost of living increase.

Or here's one the really pissed me off. I was working for a body shop and coming off a contract. The sales/recruiter/commissioned guy asks what kind of rate would I like for the next contract. OK.

So, I go up to computerjobs, type in my skills, experience, area and find that other W-2 contractors/temps were getting at least $5/hr more than I was. So, that's what I told the sales/recruiter/commissioned guy.

"That's a pretty big increase."

Excuse me. THEY are going to bill at market rates so why shouldn't I get market rates? My next contract was with another company that gave me $11/hr more. Yeah, this was in the late nineties - so, keep that in mind.

Here's another one that kills me.

You're working 12 hour days and ask your boss about getting more help - and entry level guy. And you explain that it will also develop more talent for the company.

He says, "No, see we can't get anyone qualified."

Now, I like getting my ego stroked as well the next guy, but frankly what I was doing wasn't rocket science. Then I overheard the stuff about the minimum ROI they have to make on a developer. That's right, they need to make 45% over your total compensation (salary, benefits, SS payments, etc ...). Some companies it's even more. So, they work you to death, tell you your awesome and that everyone else is too stupid to do what you're doing so, keep working hard you genius. Why hire two developers for when you can get one guy to kill himself?

All of us were eventually canned and the work sent overseas.

Re:Let me help you with adding more time to that.

[Anonymous Coward]

If you give an employee an awesome review, but tell him that due to your budget, you can only give a cost of living increase.

One of the reasons I left a small company (and don't work for them anymore either): getting told by the owner himself that they can't afford to give me a raise this year then not even a month later seeing his new sports car and finding out about the mini-mansion that he's building for himself. That business went under not even a year after I jumped ship.

Just connect on linkedin

[daveywest]

I pretty much know when cow-irkers are leaving by paying attention to their activity on Linkedin. Employees that are happy aren't polishing up their online resume and padding their community involvement and awards.

Make this work for you.

[onkelonkel]

Make this work for you.

1. Once in a while, casually mention to your boss how tired you are of recruiters emailing/calling/texting you all the time.

2. Tell a coworker your going to be a little late coming back from lunch with your buddy from $Your_biggest_competitor.

3. Tell your boss you have an "appointment" tomorrow, and you need to take an hour off. Show up the next day wearing your best suit and tie.

Re:How to tell if your top Developers are leaving:

[DoofusOfDeath]

Haircut, beard trim

... not replenishing their Hot Pockets supply in the break-room freezer.

Not a Netflix Algorithm

[CrankyFool]

The article summary is, if not inaccurate, misleading. Sabah left Netflix almost three years ago, and now works for Workday.

This is an important distinction because A) Workday can make a reasonable case for this being a valuable product to offer their customers; and B) Netflix cannot (and, speaking as a hiring manager at Netflix, we get a little antsy when it comes to monitoring employees -- it's a pretty laissez faire environment here).

Re: You Don't Know Jack...on Netflix?

[C0R1D4N]

They still make them. The jackbox party pack is on steam and consoles, you use your smartphone as the buzzer now. It is nifty

Tragedy of the Commons Writ Large

[careysub]

... You can't have a business without customers, you can't have customers if people don't have money, and they can't get money without wages or social security...

What we have here is the situation when corporate power, and the power of the financial elite, takes over all aspects of government policy. It transforms the entire consumer market based economy into the Tragedy of the Commons.

Every corporation aims to to fatten its bottom line, stock price, and C-Suite compensation package by reducing the wages of its labor force. It is a rational micro-decision, just as grazing as many sheep as possible on the commons is rational for the individual farmer, but it destroys in the long run the basis of the whole economy - a nation full of consumers with lots of money to spend on products. The majority of the increases in corporate profitability, and the source of the exploding CEO paychecks, over the last quarter century have come from holding wage payouts flat (or reducing them. Increased productivity stopped being linked to worker compensation a full 45 years ago, an entire working lifetime. As the proportion of wages that make up the economy fall to the lowest level since the Great Depression the engine that drives the growth of the U.S. economy is running out of fuel, now an anemic 2.38%, compared to the long term mean of 4.41%.

But hey, the CEOs are happy!