Bank of England Accidentally E-mails Top-Secret "Brexit" Plan To the Guardian

schwit1 writes: The first rule of "Project Bookend" is that you don't talk about "Project Bookend." In retrospect, maybe the first rule should have been "you don't accidentally e-mail 'Project Bookend' to a news agency," because as the Guardian reports, one of its editors opened his inbox and was surprised to find a message from the BOE's Head of Press Jeremy Harrison outlining the UK financial market equivalent of the Manhattan project. Project Bookend is a secret (or 'was' a secret) initiative undertaken by the BOE to study what the fallout might be from a potential 'Brexit', but if anyone asked what Sir Jon Cunliffe and a few senior staffers were up to, they were instructed to say that they were busy investigating "a broad range of European economic issues." And if you haven't heard the term before, "Brexit" refers to the possibility of Britain leaving the EU -- one of the possible outcomes of an upcoming referendum.

Comments

Whistleblower

[Anonymous Coward]

"Accidentally" isn't certain here. If I was part of something that was wrong and I wanted it to be known, I would very well "accidentally" leak it too.

Re:Whistleblower

[ironduke-particle]

Yup. Remember the irregular verb:
I give confidential briefings
You leak
He is breach of Section 2a of the Official Secrets Act

Re:Whistleblower

[hey!]

"Accidentally" isn't certain here. If I was part of something that was wrong and I wanted it to be known, I would very well "accidentally" leak it too.

Except I don't see how that applies in this case. Stay or leave -- it's not the bank's call. But if politicians are putting leaving the EU on the table, even as an empty gesture, then naturally the bank has to start thinking about contingency plans. That's just common sense, even if you think the very idea of leaving the EU is mad.

It's also common sense to keep that on the DL to prevent misguided overreaction to what is after all still a hypothetical scenario. The Bank of England a central bank and so people must be constantly scrutinizing it hoping to glean inside information on future monetary policy. That's to say nothing of having to deal with the conspiracy theory nutters.

Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

I think UK should leave EU completely. Sooner better.

P.S. I live in Germany.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[iserlohn]

If you support a strong EU (which is a necessary counterweight to the aggressiveness of Russia and the instability of the Middle East), then the UK should be in.

Unless you don't.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[fatgraham]

Isn't Germany the only other country along with the UK that can hold up the economy of the EU? Will that burden be left fully on their(your?) shoulders be wise?

If another country needs a bailout, will that responsibility fall completely on germany?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Opportunist]

If the UK was actually more interested in ties with the rest of Europe than its ties with the US, I'd agree. In the current form I'd not expect it to be anything but a spy and tool to stop legislation that goes against the interests of the US.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[dunkelfalke]

Hear hear.
Personally, I think EU should consist of France, Germany, Benelux, Austria, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and maybe, just maybe, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. That's it.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Godwin O'Hitler]

It's a no-lose siituation for Europe then isn't it. If the referendum says stay in, the people have decided to shut the fuck up. If the referendum says get out, then they won't be around any more to bother you. What could possibly go wrong?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

I want EU to be strong.

UK is pretty arrogant toward EU and showed so far no desire to integrate fully in long-term.

Them waving often their veto right (even if they are not part of some negotiations) also doesn't instill much trust.

I do not see the point in a larger but weaker union.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

Isn't Germany the only other country along with the UK that can hold up the economy of the EU? Will that burden be left fully on their(your?) shoulders be wise?

I want Germany to grow to be able to fill the role.

It might be at the moment strongest economy in EU, but it doesn't mean it is alone. Which is the whole point of having the EU.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Coward]

I also live in germany it is not this simple.

What the UK needs to do is finally figure out if they want to be some sort of US overea-territory - or if they actually belong to Europe. What the political leadership is doing right now is "a bit of both, none really". I think the political UK has not understood they are not "The Empire" anymore and that the political landscape in central Europa has changed a very lot when compared to 100 or even just 50 years ago.
Gemany, France, Poland, parts of Scandinavia, East Europe, somewhat Italy, Greece and Spain are not more and more working together, entwining economically, ripping down borders, limitations, taxes, even attempt a common currency - but the UK is the only big player who pretends all this was not happening or actually the future (if it works out. If not, well, that is a world which will bring a lot of other problems).

For the political stability we can live with both in regards to balance in Europe (vs. Russian advances or other cases where you need political weight on a global scale) and practice keeps the UK tied to europe no matter what they decide anyway (e.g. in regards to anything related to security and military, also as in regard to economics).

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Z00L00K]

Start with kicking out Greece. It's a money pit.

The Brits do was they please, it won't change much if they are in or out.

The EU itself has grown to a colossus of well-paid politicians striving for more power than they can get in their home countries.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Z00L00K]

You can add Poland as well, they aren't too bad. They actually work!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[pr0nbot]

The EU referendum is a proxy for a vote on immigration. If limits could be placed on the right to live anywhere in Europe, people would be completely fine with the EU and would likely be swayed by arguments like the need for unity in the face of neighbouring dictators, free trade, energy policy, climate etc. There are other issues with the EU, around sovereignty, democratic deficit, two-speed Europe, etc, but I don't think the average person really cares about those, they're too abstract.

In principle I think if it could be shown that the current rate of overall population growth (about 450K per year, the bulk of which is net immigration) is sustainable, that might have been enough, but in practice people perceive social systems to be overwhelmed and in crisis, or at the very least that government forecasting and planning is woefully inept.

I suspect if there is a referendum, people will vote to stay in, mainly because no one will paint a realistic picture of what it would mean to leave (the fact that the leaked document was intended to remain secret whereas the governor of the Bank has not been secretive about the case for staying in Europe, is a case in point), so all that will be heard is horror stories about how the UK will become Zimbabwe if it leaves.

Nevertheless I predict it will be a closeish vote, rather like the Scots referendum, 55%-45% or so on a highish turnout.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[johanw]

Indeed. I'd say some other countries filed some criminal charges against the GCHQ about their spying for the US to give them some more incentive to leave. Some BND officials should have that comming too.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Jumunquo]

The European Central Bank has already declared that they won't let any of their member states go under, which means they are committed to printing as much money as needed. In the end, it's not like they are transferring wealth to the bailout country anyway (that already happened when the money was borrowed). Now, they're just paying off the debt to their own banks. In other words, a taxpayer-funded bank bailout.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

Start with kicking out Greece. It's a money pit.

I also favor Greece exit.

It is very similar situation as with UK politically: EU is constantly used as a scapegoat to justify the crap they do internally. A point of time comes when population is simply way too alienated toward the EU.

IMO, Greece is long beyond the point and UK is just tipping over. Reading the UK newspapers, the amount of arrogant BS about EU is astounding. (I follow politics reluctantly, but even I know enough about EU organization to call BS literally 100% of what people say about EU in UK.) They are definitely on their way out of EU. It is not the question of "if" - it is the question of "when".

The EU itself has grown to a colossus of well-paid politicians striving for more power than they can get in their home countries.

That is inevitable. (Compare to Amis complaining about the Feds.)

But that's the price of making out of many different pieces something bigger and hopefully better.

So far, personally, I hadn't experienced anything EU did to affect negatively my life. That while there are some positives (like for example cheaper imports) which affect my daily positively.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Vlad_the_Inhaler]

Airstrip One.

The previous Tory leader - can't remember his name just now but he was a minister in the coalition government - absolutely loathed the EU to the extent that he apparently asked the Dubya administration if there was some way of joining the Mexico-US-Canada trading block. No.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Opportunist]

The BND has always been loyal to its master.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[johanw]

The economy of the UK isn't that strong. And they don't support that much anyway, they negotioated special tarifs for them in the past under the threat of leaving. Now they will try that again, but I think it won't work anymore. The others will simply say "you want to leave? Fine, then leave".

After all, we're not the American Empire that declares war on parts that want to leave and then calls it a civil war.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[johanw]

Poland tries to drag us into a new cold war with Russia together with the US and the fascist Kiev coup junta.No thanks, let the poles first grow up and get over their grudges.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[johanw]

But who is its true master? And where are they seated, Berlin or Washington?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

I also live in germany it is not this simple.

I agree with you. It is just that I have made up my mind already.

[...] but the UK is the only big player who pretends all this was not happening or actually the future.

UK is an island nation. Geographical isolation leads to a strong culture of isolation, where it is always us, the island, versus the world. IMO, UK doesn't pretend. They simply can't grasp that it is not just some monotone news on the TV. They simply can't grasp that they are part of it - because it happens outside the island.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Start with kicking out Greece. It's a money pit.

None can "kick out Greece" (one of the oldest partner)... neither from the European Union (E.U.), nor EUROzone (which is where the current problems exist - and since Greece currently has a surplus on the state's badget...) - i am not writing this with a "nationalistic mood" (i am Greek), but our other partners in the EUROzone try to avoid the scenario that has Greece leaving EUROzone (but staying in the E.U. since they are different kind of unions) and returning to our national currency (i don't want that to happen -like the 80% of Greeks who don't want it neither, based on a week's old poll-, but it is something that may help solve our current issues).

Re:Yes to Brexit

[bkmoore]

The European Central Bank has already declared that they won't let any of their member states go under, which means they are committed to printing as much money as needed....

Mario Draghi said, "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough."

Financing a member state via printing money does not exist within the ECB's mandate. So the ECB cannot legally do what you say they are doing. Greece is financing itself via ELA Emergency Liquidity Assistance, where Greek banks loan the Greek government money that cannot be repaid, then the ELA rescues the Greek banks from the bad loans. This type of back-door financing is not sustainable and will eventuall collapse under its own weight. OTOH, the ECB also lacks the mandate to kick a member state out of the common currency when they are unwilling and unable to meet the conditions for membership. Only the political leadership of the member states have the authority to either change the ECB's mandate, or to kick a member state out. How this will turn out is anybody's guess.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[DrXym]

Most rational people recognize Britain should be part of the EU. Unfortunately UKIP spooked the Conservative party and they made a bunch of promises about negotiations and a referendum to leave.

Leaving would be economic suicide so I expect Cameron will extract some concessions to persuade people to stay in and dodge that bullet. Because if he doesn't it's likely that the UK will leave the EU and Scotland and Northern Ireland would leave the UK. That would be Cameron's legacy and he knows it as much as anyone. It's probably why the Conservatives are already trying to take the bite out of some of the pro-exit talking points by tackling illegal immigration at the moment.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[dunkelfalke]

No thanks to Poland. Not after their anti-EU rhetoric, religious craziness, CIA torture prisons and so on.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[someone1234]

Greece and England actually weaken the EU.
England was never wholly part of it, Greece just expects money for nothing. And yeah, I live in the EU, in a third no-goodie EU member.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[DRJlaw]

Poland tries to drag us into a new cold war with Russia together with the US and the fascist Kiev coup junta.No thanks, let the poles first grow up and get over their grudges.

Hi Vladimir! Protip: wear a shirt, you're not in your 20s anymore.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[someone1234]

Yeah, those ships from Libya should just be sunk with the people on it. And we should raise fences all over the border, shooting at anyone without a valid pass.
Ever you considered, how those Somalis and Libyans got in the situation they are in now.
Somalia - this started by big companies dropping waste on Somali shores, and over fishing their shoreline, destroying the livelihood of fishers who became pirates.
Libya - by removing their dictator, opening the way to several tribal and terrorist groups.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[mrbester]

If by "not in the Euro zone" you mean "doesn't have the euro as currency" then you're right. But neither does Poland. They are both in the EEA, though.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[mrbester]

So only one country is allowed to do that (Italy)? Two is obviously too many...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

I'm Greek and I also favor a Greek Exit. There's no point in being in this farse of an economic union. The only country that seems to benefit is Germany. We should just default and let the ECB and the other EU Nations absorb the debt we have incurred over the years, in order to save the EU banking system. It looks like Germany believes this won't be a problem for the EU these days, like Italy, Spain or Portugal being up next, I highly doubt that, but to be honest I really don't care.

The Brits are looking pretty smart right now, not getting into the economic part of the union, from the get-go. Good for them.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Pallas Athena]

Foreign policy was never the strongest point of the EU. In fact, there's hardly any international issue where the EU really can speak with one voice, without some national leaders acting directly against it. And the EU has nothing to say about military actions at all. So foreign policy, or counterweighting Russia, is really the worst possible reason to support the EU.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Coward]

The EU referendum is a proxy for a vote on immigration.

True, it's about time we kicked all these foreign buggers out...
Personally, I favour starting with the Angles, Saxons, Jutes and their descendants,
a Pictish friend wants those pesky Celts thrown out,
another mutters darkly about the need to round up those damn Beaker People and their descendants and send them back to where they came from...
(Don't even get the Neanderthal* family living 10 minutes walk from me started about those bloody Cro-Magnons who've moved into these sceptered isles...)

*I'm not kidding...the father and both sons look more like the current depiction of Neanderthal man than anything else (albeit dressed in t-shirts and denim).

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Coward]

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymice]

Except that you aren't...

Yes, UK is a net contributor (if we only tally the directly measurable, like budget contribution vs funds awarded

So Britain *does* pay in more than that it gets back then? With regards to measurements, contributions vs rebate are the only solid numbers you can judge against.

(oh, oh, oh.... and also it negotiates budget cuts, like in... 2014... or.... 2013... and if I go back the calendar I'll find this going on, and on, and on).

No, all Osborne managed to do was defer part of a payment for a couple of months. He then deducted the rebate (that they'd get anyway) from the bill & claimed that he "halved" what had to be paid. As much as he wanted to claim, there was no negotiation involved - he rightly got told to fuck off & play by the legally agreed rules that everybody has to follow. He then went home & used "statistics" to make it look like he got some sort of concession.

So...schooled? Or want more? Stop reading The Guardian and such, try the official documents of your government or from the EU institutions.

I presume you don't read the Guardian. They're largely pro-union & were one of the leaders in pulling apart Osborne's claims.

George Osborne’s top five budget claims – and how they could be shot down
UK to pay £1.7bn EU bill in full despite Osborne’s claim to have halved it
George Osborne rebuked for boasting he halved £1.7bn EU surcharge

For what it's worth, I'm British & will be voting to stay in the union.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Viol8]

"The economy of the UK isn't that strong."

Compared to what? We've got the 2nd largest european economy after germany (we overtook france recently) and one of the highest employment rates in europe, so I'd be interested to hear what your definition of "strong" is.

The EU is nothing but a bunch of 2nd & 3rd rate countries sucking off the teet of germany and in the end when germany finally can't afford it any more its all going to end in tears. The sooner we (the UK) get out of this farcical club run by unelected useless politicians who weren't good enough to get a job in their own governments the better.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anne Thwacks]

And you shouldn't forget France.

Why the hell not? I was doing quite well at forgetting France till you reminded me!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anne Thwacks]

I wonder how that would go..

If we got rid of those damned banks, we would have to come up with a financial policy that encouraged manufacturing, since we do not have any raw materials and there is not much farm land either.

I fail to see how not having banks bleeding us dry would be a bad thing. (How many negatives can you get in a sentence?)

Re:Yes to Brexit

[JaredOfEuropa]

Many of us who are labelled "europhobic" are actually in favour of a Union, even a strong one. The problem we see in the EU is that it has become a bureaucratic, intransparent, undemocratic monster with a far too wide mandate. And if you look at the people building the EU, that is no accident. Considering what this EU might turn into, I think it would be better to not have it at all.

What the EU lacks first and foremost is a proper constitution: a simple document that describes what the EU does and doesn't do, who does what, how, and under what conditions, and what the rights are it grants to its citizens and national governments. Since we don't have one, the EU can grow in any direction and in any way its architects desire. And that direction might not be what's best for Europe or its citizens, but for those running the show in Brussels. As Juncker once said: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie". And that is sort of what they did with the thing that is called the European constitution. It's a huge document and you have to be a legal expert to make any sense of it. And that too is by design: when several countries voted against the "constitution", they took out one part (making "An die Freude" the European anthem) and rewrote the rest in impenetrable legalese.

There are many good reasons for having *a* union. And there are many more for not having *this* one.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Most rational people recognize Britain should be part of the EU.

Why? I haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm erring on the side of leaving for entirely rational reasons.

In short, I think the UK and much of continental Europe have different long term goals. The Eurozone nations have opted for a degree of financial integration that the UK doesn't want or need. Obviously that hasn't worked out very well recently, at least for the economically stronger EU nations, so there is little reason for the UK to join in the foreseeable future. I think the wider EU is also heading for a more centralised, federalised system of legislation and broader government, which again the UK does not generally want to join. I suspect that in the long term these two fundamental types of integration will prove to be inseparable, and those who want to be part of the EU will increasingly lose sovereignty over things like taxation, weakening national governments in favour of ever-more-powerful central EU authorities. That's OK if it really is what they want, but I don't think it is what the UK is looking for in its relationship with its European neighbours.

On the other hand, the UK and many other EU nations are valuable trading partners for each other, so maintaining a liberal trading environment is in everyone's interests. This was what our previous generation actually signed up for by joining the predecessors of the current EU, of course. I think many in the UK also value things like the the European Convention on Human Rights (even if our current administration do not like it) and would be happy to remain a signatory, but that is a different European system, not part of the EU. Similarly I think those from the UK who often travel to Europe or vice versa would see merit in the UK joining the Schengen Area (even though again our current administration are probably strongly against it).

As things stand, it may be that the best way of everybody getting as close as possible to achieving their own goals is for the UK and EU to separate amicably, and then for the UK to establish alternative agreements for mutual benefit with the EU and/or individual member states in those areas where everyone's interests do align. It would no doubt be painful for everyone in the short term, but this might be a having to break eggs to make omelettes situation.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

The UK is part of Europe for precisely those strategic reasons and nothing else.

The UK is part of Europe because of geography.

The UK is part of the European Union because of history, and in particular because of trade agreements followed by dubious political manoeuvring to expand the resulting relationship far beyond their originally intended scope.

If you want a Europe of alliances, then the UK should be in. If you want a Europe of unity, then the UK can't be in.

That seems like a good summary of the current situation, yes.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Viol8]

"How much of that is because of the City?"

About 20%

"Switzerland would instantly become more attractive as a non-EU location"

Why would it? Because its got pretty mountains and cuckoo clocks?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

I think Greece better fits as a province of Turkey.

I start from your last sentence because i don't think people should waste time reading my reply to a person like you.

Greece does not belong into EU either - what other EU country does have 10% of its population as civil servants? Even Bulgaria is better than that.

Based on OECD, Employment in general government as a percentage of the labour force:
Greece 7%,
Germany 11%,
USA 15%,
UK 18%,
France 22%
(note: i put USA in for our non-European friend in Slashdot to compare)
source

And why not? Greece does not belong into the Euro-zone because they have falsified their papers. Corruption, cheating, nepotism and tax evasion is Greek national past time after all.

I don't deny any of this accusations, and i can accept that we Greeks are the worste people on the world, BUT: don't believe everything you read.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[amiga3D]

Poland has reason for those grudges. They got raped time and again by the bear and that kind of horror doesn't go away quick. The fact that Putin is grinding up the Ukraine makes it seem likely that a country whose asshole still hasn't healed from the last fucking the Russians gave them would get more than a little nervous. Hard to blame them.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[amiga3D]

I still fail to see what benefit Germany gets from the EU. It looks like everyone else is dragging them down.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

How this will turn out is anybody's guess.

Not really. I hear bookies are giving odds of 1/25 on "badly".

The trouble is, the Eurozone hasn't actually solved the underlying problems that caused or amplified most of the troubles in recent years. There is still wide disparity between the economic strengths of different EU member states, including those within the Eurozone. They still share a common currency but control their own taxation, government spending, and trade relations with partners outside the EU.

Measures like quantitative easing (as we seem to call "printing money" these days) might create some temporary breathing space that allows more time to address underlying problems. However, if the real problems aren't addressed then sooner or later they will just undermine the whole economy and cause everything to crash again. And next time, the rest of the world will be even less trusting of the Eurozone's future financial strength, making it even harder for its member states to recover.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

The Eurozone nations have opted for a degree of financial integration that the UK doesn't want or need. Obviously that hasn't worked out very well recently, at least for the economically stronger EU nations

There is a saying that goes "share your wealth with us or we will share our poverty with you". The whole point of the EU is that the stronger members bring up the poorer members so that they don't dissolve into financial chaos which tends to have other inconvenient outputs. The UK wanting to leave the EU is just the problem with capitalism writ large: The proponents claim it is good for everyone, but the moment it starts to actually be good for anyone else they do everything they can to change the game so that it's best for them and crap for everyone else again. That, in a nutshell, is the UK leaving the EU.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

There are many good reasons for having *a* union. And there are many more for not having *this* one.

All I can see from your comment is a need to unfuck the constitution, not to just throw up your hands and give up.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

After all, we're not the American Empire that declares war on parts that want to leave and then calls it a civil war.

I haven't seen a Jew run like that since Poland, 1939!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[dunkelfalke]

Poland is what they call an "asshole victim". Right after WW1 they've invaded soviet Russia and annexed half of Ukraine and Belarus, including both their capitals. And in 1938 they have helped Hitler with carving up Czechoslovakia.

The grudge between Poland and Russia is very much mutual - if you read up some history you will see that Poland and Russia fought quite a lot of wars and more often than not Poland started them.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Rockoon]

The problem we see in the EU is that it has become a bureaucratic, intransparent, undemocratic monster with a far too wide mandate.

Welcome to the machine. America is the same. Remember that we were a Union of States too, and then the Federal Government grew. Eventually the E.U. budget will be larger than all of its member States budgets combined, just like in America.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[amiga3D]

I know they've bad history. I speak more to the occupation from the end of WWII until the Cold War's end. Those decades are reason enough for Poland to fear events in Ukraine. They'd be foolish not to.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Z00L00K]

Would that make any difference considering how beat up Greece is right now.

Those in Greece with money have already placed that in hard assets in foreign countries.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Feral Nerd]

Most rational people recognize Britain should be part of the EU.

Why? I haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm erring on the side of leaving for entirely rational reasons.

In short, I think the UK and much of continental Europe have different long term goals. The Eurozone nations have opted for a degree of financial integration that the UK doesn't want or need. Obviously that hasn't worked out very well recently, at least for the economically stronger EU nations, so there is little reason for the UK to join in the foreseeable future. I think the wider EU is also heading for a more centralised, federalised system of legislation and broader government, which again the UK does not generally want to join. I suspect that in the long term these two fundamental types of integration will prove to be inseparable, and those who want to be part of the EU will increasingly lose sovereignty over things like taxation, weakening national governments in favour of ever-more-powerful central EU authorities. That's OK if it really is what they want, but I don't think it is what the UK is looking for in its relationship with its European neighbours.

On the other hand, the UK and many other EU nations are valuable trading partners for each other, so maintaining a liberal trading environment is in everyone's interests. This was what our previous generation actually signed up for by joining the predecessors of the current EU, of course. I think many in the UK also value things like the the European Convention on Human Rights (even if our current administration do not like it) and would be happy to remain a signatory, but that is a different European system, not part of the EU. Similarly I think those from the UK who often travel to Europe or vice versa would see merit in the UK joining the Schengen Area (even though again our current administration are probably strongly against it).

As things stand, it may be that the best way of everybody getting as close as possible to achieving their own goals is for the UK and EU to separate amicably, and then for the UK to establish alternative agreements for mutual benefit with the EU and/or individual member states in those areas where everyone's interests do align. It would no doubt be painful for everyone in the short term, but this might be a having to break eggs to make omelettes situation.

Somebody has been attending UKP rallies, "...separate amicably..." that is has to be one of my favourite Nigel Farage quotes. In other words you want the UK to enjoy all the economic advantages of EU membership without any of the burdens and preferably outside the EU? The Americans have a saying: "There is no such thing as free lunch". What motivation would the other EU nations have to give Britain all the economic advantages it used to enjoy once Britain leaves the EU without any of the perceived shortcomings such as political and economic integration? At the very least:

1) Giving a Britain outside the EU a 'special deal' would be opening the door to every eurosceptic wing nut and velvet fascist in the EU to demand the same special treatment. That would be worse than the Brexit alone since it would effectively be the end of the EU and exactly the effect that the likes of Putin would like to see. Which is also why the Russians support parties like Front National and the Party for Freedom in one way or another. The smart machiavellian thing to do is let Britan Brexit if it really wants to and then give them a rough time.
2) There are plenty of countries willing to fill the political vacuum that Britain leaves in the EU, first among them being Poland. It is pretty revealing that when the Ukraine crisis hit it was German France and Poland that took centre stage when a decade ago it would have been Britain, France and Germany. If Britan Brexits in some fit of nationalistic intoxication Britain would to a large extent be an overseer in the decision making process that will determine the political and economic future

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

The whole point of the EU is that the stronger members bring up the poorer members so that they don't dissolve into financial chaos which tends to have other inconvenient outputs.

The trouble with that argument is that it relies on the stronger members having enough economic power to actually do that. It is far from clear that this is currently the case, with the expansion of the EU in recent years to include many far less economically advanced member states, not to mention a few of the longer-standing ones habitually cooking the books. The likes of Germany can't make up for shortfalls across so many of their fellow EU nations indefinitely; it isn't politically viable, and even if it were, it probably isn't economically viable in the long term either.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[JaredOfEuropa]

All? Well, if you have any tips on how to accomplish that, I'm all ears. One of my country's parties sees the same issues but they want to try and fix things from within (i.e. working within the existing European political framework). Personally I fear it may be too late for that: the positions that reformers can be elected for are all but powerless, and the people currently running the show will ensure that real reformers will never be appointed to a position of influence. It's close to a dictatorship, even if it's a relatively benign and multiheaded one.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

Still its comforting (in a funny way) to note that people from the other EU countries are just as ignorant on the facts about the UK and its rather complicated (and often tiresome) relationship with the EU as a monetary union vs a general trading union.

Just as people from UK are ignorant of internal politics of other member states.

And that's one of the major reasons why I call for people of UK to vote for leaving the EU: you see EU as some monster across the channel. And it is not. It is a union of 28 countries - hopefully soon 26 - each with its own problems, interests and challenges.

UK is not special in EU. You are definitely in the top 10 members, but that's it. So why should you be treated specially? Why everybody should be involved in your politics, when you do not give a damn about the other's political state?

It makes no sense to me, unless you are planning to turn the "Brexit" into an annual scare exercise to blackmail the EU for kickbacks. I hope it would not work: but it just might, since there is still enough good will toward UK in the EU.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[cheesybagel]

He's just dumb. If we actually needed to defend Europe from Russian aggression the only countries with a military to even attempt to defend something would be France and the UK.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[sumdumass]

Possibly the answers may not be importation of their residents but taking control of the countries and improving them. Then there won't be ships to sink or tons of people overloading them.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

the whole point of having the EU.

Wrong WRONG wrong !

And how do you think one make a continent without wars?

...

Imagine what would happen to EU, when all of its members started acting like UK.

That's pretty much the recipe how you start a war. And that is why UK has to go, IMO.

P.S. Beginning of the EU.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

3) Since it depends upon the eurozone for at least half of it's exports. The toll barriers resulting from a Brexit would induce British business to move significant portions of their production into the common market area.

Britain is one of the few countries within the EU that exports more to countries outside it than to ones in it, albeit by a small margin. One of the arguments for leaving is that the regulations required by the EU (which may have protectionist origins) make it harder to compete outside of it with faster growing world economies.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

The only country that seems to benefit is Germany.

You do realize that Germany pays the biggest amount of money into the EU budget?

You do know that Germany gets very very little in return?

Please educate yourself before whining.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

Is that so?

http://www.spiegel.de/internat...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

Most rational people recognize Britain should be part of the EU.

The polls vary but generally they seem to be quite close. You did also say rational people but I think in a similar way to the Scottish independence referendum this is an issue which is as much about how people feel as the economic arguments.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

'Reading the UK newspapers, the amount of arrogant BS about EU is astounding.'

You understand they just write dumb shit to sell newspapers, right? (I'm sure you're not excusing all the dumb shit -- for example the endemic racism -- in european newspapers).

The Sun and The Daily Mail I have excused a long time ago. But I have been reading them just for the cheap thrill of batshit crazy tabloid "news". Anyway, occasional overload of "nazi" jokes made sure that I will not read much of them anyway.

But then my "trusty" Financial Times also slowly turned sour. And when FT goes bad... I do not even want to think about it anymore.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Serge_Tomiko]

The only solution to a Camp of the Saints scenario is the full implementation of colonial rule. Independence for all of these countries was a mistake. I would revive the Ottoman Empire for all of the Middle East to Bangladesh.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Sesostris III]

Unfortunately I don't think you're alone in thinking we should go, and I'm in the UK. We (or, let's be honest, our government) haven't been good team players. That does not mean that all us citizens don't want the EU to develop and thrive. Yes, there are a large number of my fellow citizens who vote UKIP, but many more who don't.

The matter is going to be cleared up in a referendum, hopefully sooner rather than later. What I would like the rest of the EU to do is budge not one inch to Cameron. Give him nothing. Make the referendum not one on any proposed reforms, but one on the EU 'as-is'. OK, he will have to campaign for an exit, and if we then vote for an exit (most probably), then you get your wish and we'll be out. Then by all means continue with the EU project without us (but be willing to welcome Scotland when they leave the UK, as they will if the UK votes to leave the EU). Go forward with the fantastic vision that originally started the whole thing.

However, what I hope is that even with no reforms, we will vote to stay in (unlikely I admit). After we have agreed to stay in will be the time to think about any reforms needed (which there may be), but at least we'll (the UK) be committed partners rather than wreckers on the edge of things.

I understand the frustration, but some of us in the UK are pro-Europeans and would like to be together with the rest of our European neighbours in a vibrant, dynamic and strong EU.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

If the UK was actually more interested in ties with the rest of Europe than its ties with the US, I'd agree.

I think you're correct but for other reasons than the one you suggest.

The UK is closer culturally to Australia, Canada, New Zealand and to a lesser extent the US than a lot of places in Europe. This is also particularly true legally where we're probably the only EU country (except Malta?) to use Common Law.

There were economic reasons for joining the EEC when we did but I wonder if things would have gone smoother had we pursued a union of equals with our former Dominions.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

Have you actually read past the headline?

Let me translate for you: about 40Bln€ of German tax payer's money didn't have to go into paying the interest on Germany's public debt.

IOW, Germany saved so much of tax payer's money over these years.

This are (in part) my money - not yours. Stop counting my money.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

The UK is actively blaming all kind of issues on short sightedly on the EU, like immigration problems. But last weeks report of an alltime high immigration of 350k/year points out almost half of the immigrants are non EU citizens (over which each country has full control on how to deal with them).

Except in cases where they invoke the Human Rights Act to prevent deportation.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Sesostris III]

Actually another option (in the medium to long term) would be Edinburgh, especially if Scotland leaves the UK in order to stay in the EU (which it will).

People don't realise it but Edinburgh is a major financial centre in the EU (beaten possibly only by London and Frankfurt).

It's not going to be plain sailing inside the UK if we vote to leave the EU.

(Note to self - I must plan to move to Scotland while I can!)

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

Thanks for the sane perspective.

Though part of the problem is that even if UK decides to leave the EU, it would still have to stay in the common market. It would give up the political power, while still forced - by market - to adhere to most regulations. At least if comments here have any truth to them.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Sesostris III]

Yes, but don't underestimate how much our intransigence really pisses them off!

(Our attitude even pisses me off, and I'm British!)

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

"The economy of the UK isn't that strong."

Compared to what? We've got the 2nd largest european economy after germany (we overtook france recently) and one of the highest employment rates in europe, so I'd be interested to hear what your definition of "strong" is.

There have also been some stories in the mainstream media recently about how UK productivity is 30% lower than for the equivalent worker in Germany. One of the comments was that the current rate of immigration and depression of wages for manual workers meant that capital investment was currently less attractive. The hopeful scenario if we left the EU would be that capital investment increases hence per-capita productivity and hopefully living standards.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Coward]

Once you've burnt the roast, you cannot fix it. You must throw it out and start over.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Sesostris III]

Yes, we would have to adhere to most regulations, but without the ability to influence those regulations. We've been warned about this by Norway.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Khyber]

"a necessary counterweight to the aggressiveness of Russia and the instability of the Middle East"

Both of which the US agitates and the UK supports.
No, the EU is better off without the UK.
To think otherwise shows how deep your head is buried in the sand.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

Britain is one of the few countries within the EU that exports more to countries outside it than to ones in it, albeit by a small margin. One of the arguments for leaving is that the regulations required by the EU (which may have protectionist origins) make it harder to compete outside of it with faster growing world economies.

It does make it harder to compete, but let's be absolutely clear why. It's things like employee rights, environmental protection rules, anti-monopoly rules, data protection rules and the like. Basically stuff that benefits the citizens but slightly reduces corporate profits.

How do you think they will compete with "growing world economies"? By paying you growing world wages, and paying growing world levels of tax.

Don't think for a moment any of it will benefit you. It will benefit corporations and the already extremely rich people who own then or have large interests in them.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[dunkelfalke]

The greatest lie is a half-truth.
http://articles.latimes.com/20...

Greece had almost a million civil servants in 2012 and apparently even Americans know that. That is not just people working for the government, that are people with a secure job for life. The population of Greece was 11 millions in 2012. Looks like indeed 10% of greek population consists of civil servants. Labour force in Greece is about 5 millions so whooping 20% of the labour force are civil servants in Greece, not 7%.
Just FYI, Germany has the same amount of civil servants, but 8 times the population/labour force. There are more people working for the German government than that, of course, but they are just salaried employees.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

There is the argument though that by being in currency union with states which have a weaker economy such as Greece the currency is kept at a lower cost than it would otherwise have been which boosts exports.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

Yes. That's what we signed up for: economic and trade relations. Everything that has come after that has never been asked for or voted for here (or in many other EU member states, for that matter).

People who voted in the referendum tell me that it was made clear at the time that it wasn't just a trade agreement, it was a larger project. That was in fact one of the main points of the "no" campaign, particularly emphasised by the Morning Star newspaper and Tony Ben MP.

Why is this a problem? It worked fine for years, and good trade relations are mutually beneficial.

If it is working well why quit?

But the UK isn't asking for a free lunch. It's suggesting that if, say, Germany makes good bread and the UK farms good cows, they trade so everyone can enjoy a tasty burger-in-a-roll for lunch. Plenty of nations outside the EU have this kind of relationship with plenty of nations within the EU today. The UK has, and wants to develop, these kinds of relations with other global trading partners as well.

That isn't correct. Such free trade agreements only work if both countries are on an equal footing, otherwise there will be conditions to keep things fair. For example, Sweden has to abide by most EU rules even though it isn't in the EU, because it wants a free trade agreement. If it didn't abide by those rules it would be free to, for example, treat employees significantly worse and thus give companies an economic advantage, or have the government support failing industries which EU governments cannot. Thus there would be conditions to enable EU businesses to compete fairly and not be undercut.

So our choice would be to either accept most of the EU rules without having any say in them, and thus not be able to get rid of one of the most hated (and also beneficial) aspects of membership, or to forget about free trade and pay duties on products and services exported there. UKIP kind of acknowledges this and claims that the benefit of being able to trade with fewer restrictions with other countries would make up for it.

Note also that when people say the UK wants to develop relationships with other global trading partners, what they mean is that they want to reduce conditions and wages for employees to the same levels as those economies. Why should they pay you more than some guy doing the exact same job in China? How can they compete with that?

The UK is a net importer with most of its major trading partners within the EU. Financially speaking, there is probably more benefit to those nations if they preserve good trade relations with the UK than the other way around, but both sides benefit greatly.

Doubtful. There is the matter of principal, but more practically other countries will see it as an opportunity to improve their own positions. That's what the UK wants to do, it should expect the EU to do the same. Clearly there won't be a simple continuation of the existing arrangement because as you point out, the UK wants to ditch many of the rules on which that arrangement is reliant.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

The trouble with that argument is that it relies on the stronger members having enough economic power to actually do that. It is far from clear that this is currently the case, with the expansion of the EU in recent years to include many far less economically advanced member states

The problem with that argument is that the economic condition enjoyed by the stronger nations is built upon the exploitation of the poorer ones. You don't get to complain about how poorly someone is doing at treading water while you step on their head.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

The EU was originally started to avoid another European war, which twice became world wars. It worked extremely well. With regards to Russia, they wouldn't dare invade an EU country. The EU actually does collective defence quite well, it just doesn't get involved with things happening in other countries very much.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[mvdwege]

No, England is closer to the rest of the Anglophone world. There is a reason SNP supporters are making noises about a second independence referendum for Scotland should Brexit become a real possibility.

To be fair, Nicola Sturgeon is keeping mum on the subject, but I don't think (from across the North Sea) she's against the notion.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

What I can tell you is that the UK is special in the EU since it is a net contributor.

One average contributor.

You are even behind Italy, which is telling.

This makes it easier for the US to control European objectives [...]

The most politically and economically aligned with USA country in the EU is UK.

UK even used several times its veto right - in matters it even didn't participate initially at all - because the regulations had threatened USA's business in EU (not even related to UK!).

It might seem different in the UK, but outside the bubble everyone knows that UK is the willing whore of the USA. You have established the fact with many actions over the past decades.

The UK would be better to cut ties with the conquered and recognize who are not its friends.

I wonder if UK has any friends at all. USA?

Otherwise, I have started that thread precisely because I think that removing people like you from the EU would make it a better place.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[DrXym]

Scotland's independence vote was another example of rationality going out of the window. The SNP wrapped a saltire around a bunch of lies about oil reserves and the standard of living that independence would bring when the reality was it would have been economic and financial suicide. The same applies for the UK and leaving the EU. It might feel good to leave but it sure as heck isn't rational and many studies conclude that the UK's GDP would be permanently reduced if it did.

Ironically the SNP are pro-Europe which makes it all the more bizarre. How can union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland be bad but union with France, Germany etc be good? Same for Sinn Fein. So it's likely if the UK left Europe that Scotland would break from England and become part of the EU. I could see Northern Ireland doing the same. What fun that would be.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

All? Well, if you have any tips on how to accomplish that, I'm all ears.

If you can make a constitution, you can make another one.

Get together and make them do it again until you have rights.

Mind you, we need to do the same here in the states.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

The problem we see in the EU is that it has become a bureaucratic, intransparent, undemocratic monster with a far too wide mandate.

You say that, but I challenge you to point to some EU directives that have actually worked against UK citizens. I bet most if not all of it is either a myth or was actually a benefit to us. Vacuum cleaners perhaps, or the classic "water doesn't cure dehydration" maybe?

As for being a monster, it's about twice the size of Brimingham city council. For 500,000,000 people.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[DrXym]

Bizarre. The EU has a European parliament with directly elected members from each country with legislative powers. And it has an executive European Commission where each country is represented by a commissioner that they appoint that sets policy (to be voted upon). Plus of course every country has national governments. And local governments. So yes it's a democracy.

It's also clear that you're skipped set theorem and logic when you leapt to the wrong conclusion about what I wrote.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

Similarly I think those from the UK who often travel to Europe or vice versa would see merit in the UK joining the Schengen Area (even though again our current administration are probably strongly against it).

A bigger concern would be the loss of freedom of movement. A couple of million skilled and motivated workers would leave the UK, and a million retired or otherwise benefit dependent British people would return. It is likely that the government would try to negotiate some kind of deal where such people can stay where they are, but it will cost us a lot when we have to start contributing more and more to the welfare of those people who retired to sunnier parts of the world etc.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[khallow]

If you support a strong EU (which is a necessary counterweight to the aggressiveness of Russia and the instability of the Middle East), then the UK should be in.

Unless you don't.

I don't. I have endured silly ISO business standard rituals because of crazy EU protectionists. The whole EU affair has failed to make sense for the past twenty years. You achieved the free trade end game and then... kept going? WTF. Nobody really cares about most of the stuff that the EU does these days aside from the narrow interest groups that benefit from it.

European countries already have figured out how to wipe their asses. Nobody needs another, very thick layer of nannies on top of what's already there and already working well enough.

And I greatly despise the "That Hideous Strength" style of embrace and extend tyranny that the EU engages in (that is, bribing elected politicians to betray their country's interests via cushy jobs with the resulting EU bureaucracy). As a result, I'm rooting for the whole thing to end in ignominy. So far so good.

You know, it would be nice if we all had societies and systems that were worthy of respect by everyone else. I feel that we're collectively letting ourselves down though things are better than what they've been in the past. Maybe as we did before, something better will come of it eventually.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[robi5]

Makes sense, but the entire thing is so funny, with lots of small countries in Europe, forming innumerable quilt patchworks in all permutations. There are very few countries that meet all the following criteria: EU member; uses the Euro; member of the NATO.

Notably missing from the 'full' integration are some of the financially most successful European countries, e.g. Switzerland, the UK, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Austria, Denmark.

No wonder Russia feels comfortable doing what it wants on the perifery, and will continue to shift map and influence boundaries as it wants. China also looms large farther afield. But let's live with this hodgepodge of small individual countries and find excuses for the avoidance of solidarity, integration and cohesion. Meanwhile, let's get really scared by the prospect of the Grexit, and pour more money on that 11 million people in two years than the EU cohesion funds for Eastern Europe, with 10x as many people, slowly meted out over decades.

Heck, if it's a big loss to lose one Euro member and we want more successful Eastern EU members, then instead of spending further hundreds of billions on Greece, why not spend one easy payment of €16Bn (per country) on any of the newer EU members to help them to (sustainably) join. Instead, the Russians fill the power vacuum like there's no tomorrow, and already granted a €10Bn loan for a Russian power plant constrution in Hungary.

If Eastern Europe falls to the Russians, and the Western EU members continue the navel-gazing, then next step, the UK will be reduced to England and will enjoy, with the Danish people, the sight of armed Russian patrol flights. Ah, one more thing, let's make it difficult for Europeans to migrate to the UK for the heck of it, like for short term political posturing, it's a pain that something offsets the demographic process that was going to cause an Islamic and Asian majority in the largest UK cities in a few decades.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

So you provide international development aid before you integrate, and you only allow the tighter integration when the weaker nations are ready for it. This story plays out on a global scale and with much wider gaps in current economic strength all the time, but the EU has spectacularly mismanaged it within Europe, unfortunately with all-too-predictable consequences.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

Them waving often their veto right (even if they are not part of some negotiations) also doesn't instill much trust.

I agree. It's be much better if they said nothing and just ignored any regulations they don't agree with, like France does.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

I want Germany to grow to be able to fill the role.

Third time lucky?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

Most rational people recognize Britain should be part of the EU.

Really? The EU is heading towards political union and a single superstate.

Most rational people recognise that over the long term Britain is either Britain OR the EU. It can't be both.

I'm rational, I think strong trading links are excellent and political assimilation is stupid. Fuck the EU.

Re: Yes to Brexit

[johanw]

Yes, we could take our own DEfence. But I see no reason for offence, like the US uses to do (they have obviously learned from Pearl Harbor that a pre-emptive strike can be effective). hy should we bother Serbia? RThey didn't attack any EU member state (at the time).

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

So when exactly did I vote for (or against) Jean-Claude Juncker, who is rapidly leading the EU in a direction I find horrifying?

Democratic my arse.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[twokay]

Germany gets to run their manufacturing and exports hot while Greece cools the fuck out of everything. The only reason Germany does so well in comparison is because they had the existing manufacturing base, which is now benefiting from permanent cheap exports.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Sorry, but that is just unfounded fear-mongering.

There is no reason that skilled and motivated immigrants should have to leave the UK, for the same reason that roughly half our immigrant population comes from outside the EU today. However, the UK could impose stricter controls on those with less to offer and/or who don't speak the local languages or share the local culture entering the country. Given widespread -- and at least somewhat justified -- popular concern about less productive immigrants taking advantage of the social security system in the UK and about isolated communities that never integrate significantly, that seems one of the most likely outcomes in the event of a UK/EU split.

Similarly, the average UK ex-pat retiree now living elsewhere within the EU probably isn't a benefits scrounger. With things like the cost of housing being so low in much of continental Europe compared to the UK, these people are probably sufficiently wealthy to look after themselves for as long as they need to, contributing to the local economy in the process, and simply enjoy the more laid back culture and local environment in their later years. Again, there would be little reason to force such people out just because of a UK/EU split.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

The amount of my money subsiding the EU gravy train is working against me. My health services being overloaded due to EU migrants is working against me. The rapid drive towards reducing the sovereignty of member states continues to reduce my ability to influence the direction of the country in which I live.

The whole "Make Ireland hold a second referendum" on the Lisbon Treaty shows you how utterly undemocratic the whole process is. Shit, the rest of us didn't even get a referendum.

Ironically the biggest cock-up of the EU hasn't hurt the UK, because even Gorden Fuckface Brown wasn't stupid enough to join the Euro. Lucky escape there.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

I do not want your money, nor do I want anything to do with your country, or your self-righteous media's opinion. =) I'm in favor of Greece leaving the EU, just like you are. No reason for hostility.

Here's a link you might better understand.

http://www.spiegel.de/internat...

I'm with anonymous_braveguy on this one. Economic unity without a federal political backbone is just a failed experiment. I firmly believe when we leave Portugal or Italy will be next, but at this point I really do not care.

Re: Yes to Brexit

[robi5]

Changing borders of other countries, threatening the Baltic states, flying armed all over Europe while shooting down passenger jets on every single opportunity, piece or war? Putin even offered some thinly veiled warning to the (I guess, non-voluntary) ass-licker Hungarian government: http://tass.ru/en/economy/7930...
Russia sponsors much of the right wing movements, from Eastern Europe, through Le Pen's party. I don't know, what's the deal with UKIP, and did Russia support the Scottish separation?
Nah, not much aggressiveness. Russian leadership is shortsighted enough to quarrel with Europe and the US while China will eat their (and everyone's) lunch, and Islam is threatening Europe both through warfare and the demographic processes of former colonialist countries.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

I love the way your entire post completely disregards the UK's position as one of the highest net contributors.

Please, kick us out. Go for it. I'm sure Germany can subsidise the rest of them.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Solandri]

There is a saying that goes "share your wealth with us or we will share our poverty with you". The whole point of the EU is that the stronger members bring up the poorer members so that they don't dissolve into financial chaos which tends to have other inconvenient outputs.

That's actually the problem with the EU. Poverty doesn't go away just because you reduce trade barriers. If it did, NAFTA would've turned Mexico into a shining beacon of democracy. You need political and legal reform to disperse the conditions that are causing the poverty.

The EU does take some steps towards this - e.g. harmonizing product standards. But for the most part the EU countries are insisting on political independence. That's like trying to hitch up a bunch of horses of different athletic ability to a single wagon under the premise that the faster horses will bring the slower horses up to speed. What really ends up happening is the slower horses end up getting dragged along, and the faster horses end up having to work harder (e.g. Germany and Greece). You need to condition the horses until they're of similar fitness (i.e. political reform until they're of similar economic strength) before you think about hitching them all to the same wagon.

The U.S. tried what is basically the EU approach in the 1700s when it first won independence from Britain. Mostly because of the bad aftertaste of the overreaching British Monarchy, each state wanted to govern itself as if they were separate countries. That lasted about a decade before it became obvious it wasn't working, and a stronger central government was needed if there was to be a union.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Sesostris III]

Yes, everyone seems to complain about mountains of 'red tape' without being specific as to what actual regulations they object to.

Hopefully, in the coming months more 'facts' will come out, and more 'myths' exposed.

Talking of figures, it seems the European Commission employed 33,197 staff on 1st January 2015, while the EU Parliament employes about 8,000. Not sure about Birmingham City Council's as they seem to be being hammered by staff cuts. However, the UK Home Office number of staff was 27,546 on 1st January 2013, while the DWP was 91,643 (or 80,281 Full Time Equivalents) in August 2014.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

The recent UK national election demonstrates pretty impressively that the people of the UK are financially astute enough not to vote emotively for something that's going to destroy the economy (and thus the social fabric it sustains).

The current Conservative majority isn't because people like their social policies, it's because they're the only party people trusted with the economy.

(The lack of Conservative MPs in Scotland is due to very different factors - I'll take a bet that the SNP wont get half the votes in the Scottish parliament elections next year, let alone 95% of the seats.)

Re:Yes to Brexit

[currently_awake]

Banking (finance) is a fair weather industry. In good times they add large amounts of easy money to the economy (and to the politicians). But in bad times it's the opposite. A country needs to limit the size of the finance industry (percent of economy) in order to limit their risk.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

People who voted in the referendum tell me that it was made clear at the time that it wasn't just a trade agreement, it was a larger project.

What referendum and what agreement?

The beginning of the European Union as we know it today was the Maastricht Treaty in 1991.

The last referendum on major European integration in the UK was held in 1975, and it was about membership of the European Economic Community, which was explicitly about trade -- in fact, it was widely known as the Common Market.

This went as far as some provisions for freedom of movement, but was long before the kind of centralised government and economic integration we see with today's European Union.

For those keeping score at home, yes, that means no-one under the age of 57 in the UK has ever voted in a referendum on European integration at all.

If it is working well why quit?

Because the EU today doesn't just have the useful trade agreements, but also a lot of other baggage.

That isn't correct. Such free trade agreements only work if both countries are on an equal footing, otherwise there will be conditions to keep things fair.

An interesting perspective, considering how unequal the footing is between different EU member states today, and how much this is responsible for many of the serious problems facing Europe recently.

Note also that when people say the UK wants to develop relationships with other global trading partners, what they mean is that they want to reduce conditions and wages for employees to the same levels as those economies.

Now you're just making things up and fear-mongering again.

For example, one of the widely reported pre-leaving business comments recently was from some of the senior executives at JCB, which is a large organisation that makes engineering vehicles and the like. They made a reasonable point that there is relatively little demand for such vehicles within Europe under the current economic conditions, while there is a great deal of demand and even more potential in rising global economies like China, to which the vehicles can be exported in large numbers. Limiting potentially beneficial trade agreements with those developing economies for the sake of keeping the EU happy simply isn't in the interests of a business like that, and in turn of that sector of the UK economy. This has nothing to do with the kind of exploitation of the workforce you're alleging.

Doubtful.

The numbers are what they are. The UK has a healthy balance in trade with most of the more economically advanced EU member states, but overall it is the non-UK side that tends to export slightly more at the moment, so they have more to lose if the bureaucrats throw their toys out of the pram instead of dealing with any UK exit like adults.

And there is no particular reason to assume the trade rules would change dramatically in any new agreements anyway. As I said before, the trade agreements are one of the areas where everyone saw common ground long before the EU was around, and they are one of the areas where there is still a lot of common ground today. You're just fear-mongering, again.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[robi5]

It's an island, separated by what, a channel that was already crossed by human powered flight; Channel swimming is a sport; and there's even ground transportation slightly underneath. More importantly, the Channel is about three minutes of airtime with a modern fighter jet, and much less with a ballistic missile. Paris and some other European capitals are closer to London than many of UK's other cities, not to mention Northern Ireland, which is separated by much more sea, and the former colonies, the US etc.

Also, it feels like there is distance. But if you look at it from Russia's vantage point, Europe is like a weird, colorful peninsula, an appendix on the body of the Eurasian behemoth. Admittedly you cross over a lot of countries (as yet) when you fly from Moscow to Paris. But it's a shorter, and possibly more frequent flight, than to Siberia.

That the UK feels independent because of some psychological factor is fair enough, but 'realpolitik' should utilise some common sense and analysis, and from that viewpoint, the feeling that the UK is special, or not on the continent, etc. are ridiculous notions. Nah, we're just a bunch of quarrelling tiny nations that watch as the World go by and we become a tourist destination and service centre, mostly, for Russian oligarchs, oil sheiks and tourists from Japan and China. I.e. a reservatum and open-air museum.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Viol8]

Thats fine. The transactions will simply move over to Dollars which is what most of them are in anyway.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

The trouble with that argument is that it relies on the stronger members having enough economic power to actually do that. It's circular arguments all the way down.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ArmoredDragon]

In other words, confederations don't work. Federations and empires do however.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[robi5]

> We should just default and let the ECB and the other EU Nations absorb the debt we have incurred over the years

This must have been pretty much Greece's attitude if not intention from the get go, cheating and then falling on cushions of money that aren't yours. In the meantime, so many Greek people are incredibly rich, and lots of others have enjoyed a welfare state with modest work.

Basically, Greece owes around €400Bn (and there's an ELA fund of €70Bn) and by now, all of it came from European institutions and the IMF. Greece will default on this as you like. In the meantime, cohesion funds for similar-sized, newer EU members are around €2Bn per year, spent on infrastructure, new roads etc. in some part from companies of donor EU members, i.e. not all money stays and it's not spent on state welfare or debt service.

An EU that poured so much into a single country, while not really assisting new members will face the consequences. A former Socialist gov't in Hungary indebted the country somewhat, and the GDP sank in 2009 - no wonder that the next government was Centre Right, and no wonder that now the Socialists are in shambles due to the economic fallout and the EU's lack of handling it (in fact, Brussels tried to detract the new government where it could), and the second largest political force by now is an extreme right party, riding on the wave of dissent, like the nazis in Greece, I guess. It's like an infection; if Europe leaves issues on its periphery untreated, then it'll cause trouble for the entire body.

Europe stupidly focused on saving a disingenous, opportunistic Greece with the attitude you give example of, giving the country so much money it can't repay even if it wanted to. Whereas there are other problem zone, much larger than Greece, that weren't attended to, and governments will become pro Russia or fascists.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Feral Nerd]

3) Since it depends upon the eurozone for at least half of it's exports. The toll barriers resulting from a Brexit would induce British business to move significant portions of their production into the common market area.

Britain is one of the few countries within the EU that exports more to countries outside it than to ones in it, albeit by a small margin. One of the arguments for leaving is that the regulations required by the EU (which may have protectionist origins) make it harder to compete outside of it with faster growing world economies.

It's easy to point out statistics like this. It is tougher to find that a bit less than half of your exports, albeit by a small margin, have alluvasudden become 15-20% more expensive and therefore less competitive. That is a recipe for a nosedive in market share, and market share is much more easily lost than regained. It is considerably more difficult to point out how British businesses who export into the common market are supposed to compete if they keep their production in the UK. The obvious reaction to a Brexit is for British businesses to form subsidiaries inside the common market, preferably in places where labour costs are low with the resulting loss in British jobs and tax revenue. The average German, Frenchman, Italian Spaniard, Pole, Portuguese, Romanian will not give a hoot if the dark British beer that is becoming less and less popular in Britain but is gaining popularity on the continent is brewed in the UK or in Romania under the oversight of British Brewers if it costs 20% less. If Britain exits the European Union literally hundreds of international agreements it is a party to as part of it's EU membership will become void and will have to be painfully renegotiated and that is going to be difficult and it will take a long time. Since many of these agreement are trade agreements the damage would be likely to be extensive. This process of painstakingly renegotiating Britain's trade agreements will not be made easier by the fact that the other EU nations would have very little motivation to give the UK, an outsider nation, the same deal as a EU member nation. If the EU becomes a two tier organisation with full members and second tier members as some have suggested. The UK as an outsider looking in on a market area of 500 million potential customers would effectively be a honorary third class member. UK access to that market would depend on the good will the British enjoy in Berlin and Paris. What's more, and whether Nigel Farage is willing to admit it or not, how painful the Brexit will be depends mightily upon what kind of a mood Angela Merkel and Fracois Hollande are to give Britan a good deal when Brexit happens.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[dunkelfalke]

That half of your immigrant population that comes outside EU is mostly a legacy of UK being a former empire. If skilled immigrants from the EU would have it more difficult than they have now, they will just move elsewhere where they are more welcome. I mean, why should Poles and Lithuanians go to UK if they have jump through a lot of hoops to do that if they can just as well go to USA?
And UK will just get more people from Pakistan.

And when it comes to the retirees, thanks to EU, health insurance and government pension funds are interconnected, making it easier for the retirees to live anywhere in the EU using the local services (this is why, by the way, I am going to retire to Czech Republic or Slovakia - it is very easy for a EU citizen to do and I already speak the language somewhat). For non-EU citizens using the local health services would be much more difficult.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

You accuse me of a liar, and what you produce to base your accusations is a story from the Los Angeles Times?

Anyway: from the official civil servants census page of the Greek goverment (official title: CENSUS, registry of human resources of the Greek state) - note: every civil servant in Greece must be registered in this to be able to get paid, plus this is checked by European partners: http://apografi.yap.gov.gr/apo... (this is in English) - Ordinary Staff 573.958 - Not Ordinary Staff - By type of contract SUM 65.355 plus 12.045 Special Cases

So, now are about 652000, in 2012 was 735000, AND THE DATA I POSTED FROM OECD ARE FOR 2011 (that was the latest) - i could accept that you are just misinformed IF you had not writen in your previous comment this:"I think Greece better fits as a province of Turkey."

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

No, it's not. One of the strategies requires everything to work almost immediately or it almost immediately starts building up to a failure that undermines the economies on both sides. The other strategy can be used over arbitrarily long timescales, with full integration determined by when everyone is ready instead of artificial pressures because of unwanted economic side-effects, and in fact full economic integration not necessarily ever being required at all.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[MrL0G1C]

but I challenge you to point to some EU directives that have actually worked against UK citizens

ACTA was thankfully rejected with huge opposition by EU citizens but now they are throwing the same crap at us within TTIP, CETA and TISA.

We don't need EU to be able to trade, we don't need the EU in order to keep the Human Rights treaty.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[dunkelfalke]

Historically it was always the other way around - Russia had to defend themselves from France (Napoleon campaign), UK (Crimean war, intervention in the civil war 1918), us Germans (WW1 and 2) and so on.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[robi5]

> > Start with kicking out Greece. It's a money pit.

> Why do you believe this? What have you been told about Greece, and its current economy?

I wasn't the GP but it's a bit more complex than this. There's no way Greece can finance the interest on its debt, let alone refinance it, not to mention reduce the debt level. So despite your otherwise legit list, those points are irrelevant, in particular, because they aren't mobilised to solve the crisis (selling islands etc.).

So the only option left for Greece to not default is if Europe pours more money into it. Given the debt level, and given that Greece has already reneged on past commitments, and indeed, any past commitments can be undone by a next government any time, the sentiment is that, even if Greek politicians were the most constructive, Europe would throw good money after bad money like it's been doing.

Now, the Greek politicians aren't even that constructive.

I ascribe this to the fact that reneging on the loans was what got them in power, rather than that they truly want a solution where Greece would eventually repay, with the slight technical difficulty that they'd only do so if it were sustainable, which unfortunately it isn't. Japan and maybe the USA can live with public debt equaling 200% of the GDP but Greece can't.

So, given the past annullments of agreements; the stance of the current gov't; the amount of debt; the political situation in Greece; I think it's fair to characterise Greece as a money pit as the GP did, because it needs the money; can't repay; and the incremental money won't solve the problem.

If the EU denies throwing money in this pit, then almost automatically, either of two things happen: Greece collapses and can't sustain using the Euro; prints its own money, slides into disarray and maybe an extreme right wing government; capital and production facilities flee; the economy becomes defunct; the other, more remote possibility is that Russia buys Greece. Either way, Greece in effect, stops being part of the European integration, won't even be able to control its borders.

So, if the EU denies further funds towards the money pit, then Greece is de facto out, even if it's not an active way of kicking it out, just a consequence that's however known in advance.

I believe it's the interest of Greece and the EU alike to let go of the pretense and hypocrisy. Iceland defaulted on the mortgage loans of its population, and they're fine. Poland defaulted around 1990 and Hungary was commended for _not_ doing so. In the short term, Hungary benefited from the stability; in the long term, they still have much lower debt levels, and have surpassed Hungary. The interest is mutual: I don't want my fellow taxpayers to throw good money after bad; I don't want my Greek friends to have to be indebted for half a millennium.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[MrL0G1C]

ACTA, TTIP, CETA and TISA These are the reasons why we should leave the EU, the Commission keeps throwing extremely bad treaties at us because they can because they are unelected.

We should not have an unelected body writing our laws.

And the EU appears to be trying to build up an army at the same time as needlessly antagonising Russia. Read 1984. Again.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Feral Nerd]

> For example, Sweden has to abide by most EU rules even though it isn't in the EU

I think you're thinking about Norway here, mate.

He's still got a point. Britain wants to restrict immigration from other EU nations but I wonder what the reaction would be if British people began to be rejected for residency in other EU nations? One of the founding principles of the EU is the principle of the free movement of goods. The free movement of services and freedom of establishment. The free movement of persons including free movement of workers. This only works as long as everybody is equal. If the British are not on board with these basic principles then they should Brexit and do their own thing because they won't get any opt-outs on the four freedoms which is essentially what they want.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Feral Nerd]

The numbers are what they are. The UK has a healthy balance in trade with most of the more economically advanced EU member states, but overall it is the non-UK side that tends to export slightly more at the moment, so they have more to lose if the bureaucrats throw their toys out of the pram instead of dealing with any UK exit like adults. And there is no particular reason to assume the trade rules would change dramatically in any new agreements anyway. As I said before, the trade agreements are one of the areas where everyone saw common ground long before the EU was around, and they are one of the areas where there is still a lot of common ground today. You're just fear-mongering, again.

You are talking as if none of Britain's booming trade has anything to do with the common market and as if that relationship would continue unchanged if Britain exits the EU. If that really happens and the EU bureaucrats allow Britain to exit whilst retaining all of its trade agreements and privileges except influencing internal EU affairs, what is to stop Greece, Hungary or any other country where EU skeptics have come into power from demanding the same? Anybody interested in keeping the EU in tact is going to be as enthusiastic about giving Britain a 'leave while retaining all membership privileges' deal as the UK government is to give you a 'continue to earn money and use public facilities while paying no taxes' deal.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

The biggest mistake the EU ever made was listening to the Americans (what a surprise) to let in all the ex soviet satellite states. The dire situation we have in EU today is a consequence among many others of that stupid and short sighted policy.

This was partly also a British thing as we thought the more countries were included, the more it would slow down any attempts at integration. I don't think it's worked out quite as planned...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AK Marc]

The UK is anti-immigration, and has been for a long time. I was surprised when I saw them join, knowing it opened their borders to all EU citizens. I've since seen many complaints in the UK media and elsewhere about the level, numbers and types of people entering the UK for work.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[DrXym]

The irony is that the UK is a net beneficiary of immigration. Immigrants work in the UK, pay their taxes and then return to their own countries before they burden the UK for services that those taxes pay for - benefits, pension, NHS etc.

That isn't to say that all immigrants are welcome of course and some of them are decidedly unwelcome (trafficked slaves, criminal gangs etc.). But it's overblown by the media, particularly those adept at pushing the fear button on their readers like the Daily Mail, Telegraph etc.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

Yes the person in power does get to do whatever they want. That is what being in power is.

That's what being a child is. When you grow up, you realize that if you just do whatever you want, there are eventually consequences. We create the world we live in. Time to grow up, and act like it.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

"The great bulk of the money lent to Greece has been used simply to pay interest and principal on debt."

I'm not going to defend the government that got us in the euro by cooking the books. That party is pretty much non existent now cause of its colossal blunder. Nor was I ever aware that such a game was being played. I'll just point you to Paul Krugman on the issue of morality.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01...

No point in pretending there is unity between people of the European Nations and such. Germany pretty much only cares about making an example of the Greek people, painting us as non-working jerks and the sort, when we actually work more than Germans in absolute hours for a lot less pay. I'm just tired of this bullshit. Let's default and lenders get nothing, Greece gets a new start in a weaker economy. I'm pretty sure the EU will fall apart, not out of spite, but exactly because there is no mechanism designed to work out these types of crisis.No federal political ties. Detroit filed for bankruptcy. No one is booting it out of the US :p

Ontopic: Britain is pretty wise of being skeptics.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

Claiming that rich countries haven't benefited from EU is highly inaccurate. Half of the UK's exports go to the EU.

Half of Britain's exports go to countries that happen to be geographically close to us. This is unlikely to change whether or not we leave.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[myowntrueself]

I can completely understand the rest of Europes desire to see the UK leave the EU. As a British citizen who finds life in the UK dull, drab, overcrowded and the only respite from the dullness and drabness is the violence and crime caused by the deep social problems confronting the UK, I'm really really glad that its so easy for me to live and work anywhere else in the EU. I can't understand why so many people want to come to the UK, they must be very misguided and misinformed.

Sadly, people like me are almost the only people who actually benefit from the UK being a member of the EU. Oh, me and most of the business leaders in the UK.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

Pray tell, explain how Germany is responsible for Greece's insolvency, other than not being happy to continue to pay for it?

Greece had problems before it joined but it does now have the additional problem that because it is part of the same currency union as Germany its currency is valued higher than it would otherwise have been, given the state of its economy which hampers both exports and investments. Germany on the other hand is in the opposite situation, relative to how its currency would be judged on its own.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[bloodhawk]

The trouble with that argument is that it relies on the stronger members having enough economic power to actually do that. It is far from clear that this is currently the case, with the expansion of the EU in recent years to include many far less economically advanced member states

The problem with that argument is that the economic condition enjoyed by the stronger nations is built upon the exploitation of the poorer ones. You don't get to complain about how poorly someone is doing at treading water while you step on their head.

That may be the case with the world in general, but for this case (ie. the EU) it is not the case. Most of the poor economic situations are self inflicted from corruption, poor taxation system or just plain bad government. No one forced Greece to be a corrupt tax avoiding nation and certainly no one was benefiting from what they were doing.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[St.Creed]

That isn't correct. Such free trade agreements only work if both countries are on an equal footing, otherwise there will be conditions to keep things fair.

An interesting perspective, considering how unequal the footing is between different EU member states today, and how much this is responsible for many of the serious problems facing Europe recently.

Dude, you have Wales and Northern Ireland in the UK. People living in glass houses...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymice]

Wow, you have such a lack of understanding of European (dare I say, global) politics that I don't even know where to start...

First off, the world is not the United States. Our countries weren't recently formed by homogeneous colonialists divvying up their spoils of war for easier administration.
Previous attempts to force the rest of the world to work like this have given us the lovely situation we now have in the Middle-East & across Africa.
European countries are built upon many different cultures, traditions & "tribes" that have interdependently developed over millennia. A single European government would work about as well as a single American government (consisting of Northern, Central & Southern America). In fact with the relatively young age of the "New World" countries, an "American" government could arguably be easier to set up!

There are very few countries that meet all the following criteria: EU member; uses the Euro; member of the NATO. Notably missing from the 'full' integration...

Those 3 institutions have very little to do with each other & the only crossover is that the EU & Eurozone happen to be based in the same region, & NATO & the EU were a result of WWII. A federation such as the United States has never been a goal.

No wonder Russia feels comfortable doing what it wants on the perifery, and will continue to shift map and influence boundaries as it wants.

Instead, the Russians fill the power vacuum like there's no tomorrow, and already granted a €10Bn loan for a Russian power plant constrution in Hungary.

If Eastern Europe falls to the Russians...

Perhaps it's a little rusty, so let me refresh your memory: It's still in recent human memory when all of that was Russian territory & the West was on the brink of war with them. Roll forward 2 or 3 decades & many of those territories are now under the wing of a political union that was their sworn enemy for a good part of a century (their support during the war was a mutually reluctant "Enemy of my Enemy" situation.
That the Russians might get a bit nervous with a Western European bloc on their doorstep is hardly a surprise.

...it's a pain that something offsets the demographic process that was going to cause an Islamic and Asian majority in the largest UK cities in a few decades.

It pains me that it's only after I've bothered writing this long reply that I see you're getting your world info from Fox. What a wasted few minutes :(
I think it's also worth pointing out that the most deadly attack recently experienced in Europe was committed by an extremist far-right Christian xenophobe.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

The problem with that argument is that the economic condition enjoyed by the stronger nations is built upon the exploitation of the poorer ones.

Odd, because conventional wisdom is that German success was down to 1) good academic and practical education 2) good industrial relations 3) big picture/long term thinking 4) moderate taxation and 5) hard work.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

Dude, we should just default already. No point in pointing out misinformation. The very basis of a European union is peace through common prosperity. They're already undermining this for cheap political benefit. They believe they're better off without Greece, I believe we're better off without pretending this union is anything but a farce. Why do you think the Brits never got in? I say call it as it is and get the hell out... Sure it'll be hard, but we don't exactly have a rosy alternative.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

They are trapped in a system of expensive debt in hands of the richer

Nobody made them borrow it. And nobody made them waste it when they did borrow it.

out of which they can't devaluate themselves, since they share the same currency.

You can't devaluate [sic] yourself out of debt, unless the creditor is stupid enough to denominate it in a currency that you have control over, in which case he's said "you owe us a million dollars times x, for whatever value of x you feel like".

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

You are talking as if none of Britain's booming trade has anything to do with the common market

It has plenty to do with the Common Market.

It has very little to do with the rest of the stuff the EU added on top of that Common Market.

and as if that relationship would continue unchanged if Britain exits the EU.

There is no reason why in the long term that should not be the case. It worked before, something similar works today with the EFTA nations, and it is still in everyone's interests for a separated UK and the nations still in the EU to remain effective trading partners.

If that really happens and the EU bureaucrats allow Britain to exit whilst retaining all of its trade agreements and privileges except influencing internal EU affairs

Where did that "and privileges" come from? What privileges are these, and why do you keep adding extra one-sided straw men to the discussion when no-one else is suggesting them?

what is to stop Greece, Hungary or any other country where EU skeptics have come into power from demanding the same?

If EU skeptics have come to power elsewhere, why does the EU have any right to try to prevent them from leaving? You could hardly blame, for example, the Greek, for having second thoughts. Though of course the general population in Greece seems to be consistently in favour of trying to make the Euro work rather than going back to their old currency anyway, so this is just another straw man.

Anybody interested in keeping the EU in tact is going to be as enthusiastic about giving Britain a 'leave while retaining all membership privileges' deal as the UK government is to give you a 'continue to earn money and use public facilities while paying no taxes' deal.

And the same number of people are actually suggesting each of those deals here: zero. You seem to be making up random straw men for reasons I don't understand, and I don't see how that is furthering any useful debate here.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[JaredOfEuropa]

I'm Dutch, by the way... But the stuff that works against us often works equally against the Brits. And I am not talking about Europe making rules about the size of flowerpots, such things should be seen in the same light as setting up an EU patent office, and is in the interest of people in the business of making and selling flowerpots (and other stuff). No, the EU isn't all bad, that's why I called it a benign dictatorship. That's the problem: the EU is turning into something that is not "for the people" but for itself, i.e. the people running it. Most persons in power in the EU are appointed rather than elected, and there is very little (if any) direct democratic oversight. It's not about the EU being too big or imposing too much red tape, but about it becoming a goal unto itself instead of a means to an end, and being controlled by a cabal of bureaucrats rather than by the people.

There are enough examples of bad EU policies to be had, in monetary policy alone. Greece being dragged into the euro, for example. Experts warned against exactly the sort of things now going on. France and Germany repeatedly getting (i.e. giving each other) a pass on not meeting budgetary requirements during good times, then cracking down hard on smaller countries with similar issues during bad times. When we joined the euro, we got short-changed by about 10%, as pointed out by experts and later even by the minister of finance in charge at the time. Joining the euro was not a bad plan, but think about what it means if a minister of finance is willing to push through such a measure under such conditions. Our national governments, who are supposed to look out for our interests, are largely so blinded by their rosy vision of a united Europe that they are willing to make insane (and often unnecessary) sacrifices to make it happen.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[phantomfive]

A few years ago, Greece nearly went bankrupt, and Europe was worried because so many banks had Greek treasury bonds. So they gave Greece some money, and the banks divested themselves of the the Greek treasury bonds.

Now if Greece goes bankrupt it's no big deal because none of the other European banks have enough bonds to matter. Whether Greece stays in the Euro or prints their own currency matters little, it will end badly for them. And the rest of Europe will move on as if little had happened.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

The funny thing my fellow Greek is that i am a "mnimoniakos Germano-Tsolias"! I believe strongly in austerity, i even support Germans invating Greece - but i don't like misinformation.

I must admit that i read your other comment you made to some German, and, while i am very against leaving EUROzone/EU, so i disagree with you, i found this "I support Greece leaving EU, like you support Greece leaving - no reason for hostility" phrase of yours something i can understand AND respect - it is so rare (for a Greek) to have an opinion for that issue that is without the usual rhetoric...

As a fellow Greek, you understand that if we start discussing this issue here we will end up going Greek with our "ante gamisou re malaka" and the rest that are usual between Greeks discussing politics! So, i don't want to discuss it with you because most probably i will end up insulting you... i don't have a problem insulting anyone, i even like it, but this phrase of yours makes me think that YOU may be this rare kind of Greek that does not deserve my insults patrioti!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

The richer countries don't have to do anything, it is a process that happens naturally over time. See Ireland.

What we have now is a specific problem caused by the financial crisis. It's not the normal way the system us supposed to work. I'd also point out that it isn't as bad as some people think it is. Remember when the pundits were saying that the Euro was dead?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

What really ends up happening is the slower horses end up getting dragged along, and the faster horses end up having to work harder

Yeah, if you insist on just dragging the slower members of your team, you're going to have to work pretty hard. If you helped them become more like you, then they would do better at pulling their own weight. And it's clear that just dragging them isn't going to make that happen, at least not quickly. Sure, they may eventually become resentful, but who wants to wait? Maybe there's a better way.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

What we have now is a specific problem caused by the financial crisis.

Which of course was itself neither caused nor amplified by the underlying financial strains within the EU and particularly the Eurozone, right?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

Nah, no need for insults. It's just a matter of principle. I'm Greek - American. We too are misinformed a lot, not just the Germans. And a lot of that misinformation is aimed at us fearing a Greek exit. I'm all for a Europe as it was originally conceived. But we need it to be a federation for it to actually work. Austerity really doesn't help at all. Austerity is the problem right now, and that is pretty much fact. Anyway, I respect your opinion as you have respected mine. Kalo sou vradi!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

This only works as long as everybody is equal.

Precisely. And since, in terms of economic strength, everybody in the expanded EU most certainly isn't equal (please note that this is not intended as any sort of insult, merely a statement of fact) the free movement principle does not work well.

In particular, what has really happened in certain cases, for example with Poland and England, is that most of the movement has been one way. This puts strain on English services, but it's important to recognise that it also means many of the people who would be best placed to help Poland develop its own economy are among the most likely to find working in richer European countries more attractive and/or lucrative, creating a "brain drain" effect back home. In the long term, both nations could end up worse off because of the imbalance.

In principle, freedom of movement is a good idea, for both business and pleasure purposes. But on the business side, it does require reasonably balanced parties so the traffic at least roughly cancels out. This was the case in the early days when there were far fewer nations in the shared European machine, but with the expansion to nearly 30 actual or aspiring member states with much more diverse economic conditions, the same logic no longer holds.

Re: Yes to Brexit

[drinkypoo]

Fuck you.

And that's why we can't have nice things: because that's the best you can do when you see someone in need.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[iONiUM]

Thank you for posting this link, this is really cool.

For the record, the US 15% number is actually their 2001 stat (14.7%), whereas the 2011 stat is 14.4% (which presumably you would round to 14% instead).

This is from the XLS which I assume you used for the data: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932942241.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AK Marc]

We've got the 2nd largest european economy after germany (we overtook france recently) and one of the highest employment rates in europe, so I'd be interested to hear what your definition of "strong" is.

Must be the Conservative Conspiracy media that's covered in the international news. I hear about how hard the UK has it because their presence in the EU causes all the poor eastern European people to flock to the UK to steal all the UK jobs, working for peanuts and taking all the money out of the country when they are done.

England must be super-strong. They were claiming that Scotland would collapse economically if they weren't in the EU, just 9 months ago when the Scottish freedom was considered. So Scotland is hanging by a thread, on the edge of collapse. Or at least, so says England.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

All those people who retired to British ghettos in the south of Spain won't be able to stay. Their pensions were frozen when they left the UK, and they would suddenly need to pay for medical care. That is assuming they can get a visa. Spain doesn't just let anyone in, especially if they have no intention of working and are likely to need expensive support services. It's not like they contribute much tax.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

Free movement works well enough in the states. The difference between some states is not far off the differences in the EU. It just needs to be worked out, not abandoned.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

The second referendum in Ireland was a triumph of democracy. The people rejected the first offering, so the politicians listened to their concerns and improved it. The second version was much more to their liking.

No one forced the Irish to vote yes the second time, did they? What's wrong with listening to the population? If something is rejected the first time is it forever trained and impossible to fix?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

If you helped them become more like you, then they would do better at pulling their own weight.

You can't do that unilaterally. It needs the recipients to at least try and help themselves. It's not like the German economy is a huge secret.

I'm not sure Greece has even recognized the need. They've been told for twenty years that they need reforms and they've done nothing.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

You mean something like what was voted on in 1975?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisda...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Opportunist]

Well, if that's going to be Cameron's legacy, he should consider himself lucky. I've heard the SI unit between two blunders is going to be called the Cameron.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Mendy]

Free movement works well enough in the states. The difference between some states is not far off the differences in the EU. It just needs to be worked out, not abandoned.

I suspect that the effects are quite a bit different due to the lower being less "socialist" in areas such as health, education and out of work benefits. Reducing benefits for migrants is one of the things the UK is trying to agree as a condition for remaining but it goes against the idea of all "EU citizens" being equal.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

What burdens and if so, for whom?
What is by certain British politicians seen as EU burdens are by the vast majority of EU citizen seen as consumer and workers rights.
Therefore it is inconceivable to have open borders without also insisting on a more or less 'Level Playing Field.
You know, that stuff that hard core capitalists hate.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Uhh, if I were you I'd check up on which EU members are so in favour of the treaties you mention.
The EU commission is appointed by the democratically elected governments of the member nations, that is arguably more democratic than the first past the post system the UK has!
Many EU countries form their government from people that were not elected, it's the parliament that controls the government what is elected.
Your last sentence is quite challenging coming from someone with your nickname..., who is antagonising who?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

You did vote for him by fiat of your last parliamentary votes, both national and EU.
You did vote I hope?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

OK, so following this line it's also fuck the Union?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

It's more the lack of Civil Law that makes the UK a European oddity.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

The only 'Funny' I see in this thread is that some Brits would rather see their contribution resemble that of countries like Romania and Poland.
The UK is already behind Italy...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

If you support a strong EU (which is a necessary counterweight to the aggressiveness of Russia and the instability of the Middle East)

The EU isn't a counterweight to anything in a military sense. That's what NATO was invented for.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Denmark is more integrated with the EU than say the UK.
The Danish currency used to be tied tot the Deutschmark and is now tied to the euro, for less cost they could have given up their kroner and joined the euro.
Denmark has a strong EU sceptic party that for once is not led by an idiot but the majority of Danes has always voted for pro-EU parties.
If only to avoid Danish tax and be able to buy their beer in Flensburg.

Norway is due to it's oil a hugely wealthy country with a very unusual tax system that would be hard to integrate with normal countries.
Yet the Norwegians have so many by-lateral treaties with the EU (Schengen!) that they could become a member overnight.
But they are not allowed to vote in Brussels.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

In other words, confederations don't work.

Switzerland on line one...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

The EU budget is a lot of money but a small fraction of the combined national budgets.

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm

The EU budget was about €144 bn in 2013 - very small compared to the sum of the 28 EU countries' national budgets (over € 6,400 bn). Total government expenditure by the 28 EU countries is almost 50 times the EU budget! To put this into perspective, in 2013 the average EU citizen paid 283 euros a year towards the EU budget. This is less than a euro a day - hardly very expensive given the benefits that the EU brings its citizens. In fact, the EU budget is smaller than the Austrian or Belgian budgets. The EU budget stands at about 1% of the 28 EU countries' gross domestic product (GDP) – the total value of all goods and services produced in the EU. By contrast, the budgets of EU countries represent 49% of GDP on average. The EU budget is always balanced, so there is no deficit or debt. And 94% of what is paid into the EU budget is spent in the EU countries on policies and programmes that benefit citizens directly.

To expand on the last sentence, this is not money that disappears in a black hole, people get paid from it.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/exp...
For once you should inform yourself.
Your health services are not overloaded because of Brussels, it is because you have a lack of capable national politicians that can legally limit the number of people claiming benefits.
There is no EU rule that forces a nation to pay for visitors, of course there is a rule that makes the nations treat workers equal, a sore point for the conservatives.
Those that work can hardly be considered a drain on the system, on the contrary, they contribute to it.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Since when are ISO standards run by the EU?
If I remember one rather nasty example of an ISO standard being corrupted for and by for Microsoft, it went via individual nations.
One of those nations was Norway and they are not a even EU member.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[AmiMoJo]

Actually free movement is for work, and people coming to the UK can't get most benefits right away anyway. There are some, like access to some healthcare, but for example they can't just claim job seekers allowance or housing benefit from day one and without a job.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Hmm, you should stop believing the tabloids :)
http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECin...

Once again we are seeing big bold headlines claiming massive increase in the UK’s contribution to the EU budget in 2013. We provide figures and explanations below, but first a reminder of some general points that put these figures in context: Traditionally, the UK net contributions to the EU budget are less than 1% of UK’s public spending. While all bigger and richer member states are net contributors, as a contribution per capita the UK is behind countries like Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands or Austria, Finland and Belgium. Finally, the estimated benefits of EU membership for the UK economy vastly exceed the UK’s gross budget contribution, let alone its net one. You don’t have to take our word for it – the CBI estimates the direct net economic benefits alone at between £62bn and £78bn every year http://www.cbi.org.uk/campaign...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

When people are coming into the country and taking on low paid jobs, there are multiple impacts:
- wages depress, which reduces the tax return on those jobs
- many of these jobs pay wages below the net tax threshold, so those workers receive more in benefits and tax credits than they actually pay
- the number of jobs doesn't necessarily rise at the same rate as immigration, which is one reason youth unemployment is so low

So those workers are causing additional strain on the NHS while not making a net contribution in their own right.

Forgive me for highlighting that you're full of shit.

 

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Although the German economy is the largest of the EU countries they could never hold up the EU by themselves.
Based on GDP the UK economy is marginally smaller and depending who does the calculations ranks just before or after France, Italy ranks fourth.
Looking at GDP per capita the UK ranks 14th. with Germany 12th, a lot of the smaller economies seem to be giving better returns.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

There is still wide disparity between the economic strengths of different EU member states, including those within the Eurozone. They still share a common currency but control their own taxation, government spending, and trade relations with partners outside the EU.

This is exactly why I call people idiots that claim you loose sovereignty over your national well-being when joining the common currency.
There are so many tools left for national governments to influence their economy, the Greek example is telling, they refused to balance their taxes vs. spending and are now blaming others.
This happened while Greece could borrow money for rates far below what they would have had to pay before joining the Euro.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Compare it on a per capita base and you'll understand.
As an example look at the percentage of children growing up in poverty.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Thank you for appreciating my link AND THANK YOU FOR CORRECTING ME (i really hate mis-information: USA should be 14% AND GREECE 8% - i did not made it on purpose, i was going by the PDF table -no time for quality testing!-, and i was "heavely" rounding... next time i will be more careful, although even like that i think the data i posted was accurate enough!) - anyway, thanks!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

You just confirmed what I wrote, the problem is with lacking national legislation.
Would you have fair minimum wages, collective bargaining agreements etc. there would be no competition of the sort you complain about.
I am a frequent visitor to the UK and am always surprised there are hardly any Brits working in restaurants and hotels, are they too lazy?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Spugglefink]

Watching from over here, I thought it was a cool experiment, but I didn't really expect it to work. In spite of its many problems, it has, on the whole, turned out better than I ever expected.

A loose confederation of independent states didn't work over here either. We ultimately settled the matter with a brutal civil war, and the federal government won. I suppose it was a good thing on the whole, though where I live, people are still bitter about it more than 100 years later.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

Were we to have control over immigration we wouldn't need heavy-handed legislation constraining employers.

Forgive me for not wanting to live in a communist utopia. I've seen where that leads.

It was the labour union controlled party that opened the immigration floodgates and they haven't yet been closed. Half of net immigration comes from the EU and we can't prevent it under current agreements.

I want those changed. This country is too small for its population and adding 300,000 to the population every year is not sustainable. There is already a shortage of housing, the NHS is being stretched beyond its capacity, people leaving school are struggling to find jobs.

Fuck that, and that's just one tiny element of what the EU is doing wrong. Fuck you too for trying to suggest that the UK should just roll over and let Brussels dictate national policy. No.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Yes, Greeks are misinformed also - while i support the Euro, i don't like the "terror" propaganda about what will happen if we leave it (althrough i understand that is necessary to balance the opposite ""EURO must be blamed for everything" propaganda). Anyway, it seems that we are the only 2 Greeks who have still some brains left in their heads... but since we disagree i must now insult you: ante spase re malaka (hmmm... unfortunately for me i remember you also wrote to that German "i don't want your money", so my insult does not work... kai se sebomai gia auto patrioti!)

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

In the same way German misinformation is necessary in order to hide the fact that what they're asking from the Greek people is something they themselves would revolt against if the tables were turned. Austerity measures to repay interest on bank bail outs... We both know no one in Greece is asking for a handout. Ask any German and they genuinely believe we're a bunch of lazy people...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

[Free movement] just needs to be worked out, not abandoned.

In principle, I agree with you.

However, "working it out" when you're starting with the level of disparity between countries like the UK and Germany on the one hand and the "new Europe" nations on the other is a generational problem that will take many years to solve. It's not something that can be finished in a matter of months with a quick treaty or two.

In the meantime, if you immediately establish tight integration as something like joining the EU does, you have artificially increased the pressure on both the weaker and the stronger nations. Consider that Greece -- which was already an EU member and part of the Eurozone -- is still in serious economic trouble today, coming up to seven years after the big crash. There are still serious political frictions there over dealings with Europe, and there are still serious political frictions in nations like Germany, where they have been picking up the tab for all that time.

One possible alternative is to provide humanitarian and economic aid to less fortunate nations without such close formal ties. For example, the UK has a government department responsible for international development. It has thousands of staff, and now sends over £10B per year in aid funding, mostly to nations across Africa, Asia and the Middle East. This makes the UK the #2 provider of official development aid (after the US) in absolute terms, and the #5 provider (after Norway, Sweden, Luxembourg, and Denmark) relative to gross national income.

So again, if the UK were no longer part of the EU, this doesn't necessarily mean the UK would no longer support the economic development of the "new Europe" states. A cynic might also point out that unlike the EU, there are also actual accounts showing where the money for UK overseas aid is really going and robust mechanisms for reporting and shutting down fraudulent claimants.

For the near future, this kind of arrangement might be more beneficial to the nations receiving the aid and impose a lower risk on the nations giving it, without the mechanics of shared currencies and the like clouding the issue. So again, looking at the big picture, I don't see much of an argument for the UK becoming more tightly integrated with the EU and in particular joining the Eurozone given the current economic disparity among member states.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

The mostly-unspoken underlying question here is whether the people of Europe actually want to bound together in that way. Some people do see a United States of Europe in the future. Generally speaking, the people of the UK don't, or at least don't want to give up our own national identity to become part of such an umbrella organisation, any more than Canada wants to be the 51st state just because some Canadians speak the same language as most people in the US and they share a border and some broadly similar political views.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

Yeah, exactly. I'm Greek-American living in Greece at the moment, so I tend to compare the USA with the EU a lot. You're right, the EU is actually on whole pretty cool, like competition laws. But this lack of a working federal backbone is a fatal flaw and I'm unlucky enough to live in the country where hell broke loose. If they can't find a way to solve this problem as a whole, it looks like I'll be returning to the States soon.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

I think the challenge with the current system and shared Euro currency isn't that a nation loses control of its own policies on things like taxation and trade, its that whether those policies actually work is significantly influenced by the equivalent policies set by other nations that share the currency. As we've seen in recent years, if some nations screw up their own economies due to poor management, corruption, or for any other reason, it does have a serious knock-on effect across the whole currency group.

So, although a shared currency doesn't in itself imply shared tax and spending policies, I suspect that more centralised government (and therefore necessarily less autonomy and sovereignty for each member state) will follow in practice. To a degree, it already has, with the nations that struggled worst after the crash effectively being forced into unpopular austerity policies by foreign influences in return for bail-out money or even having their entire governments replaced by technocrats for a while.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[tigersha]

> For example, Sweden has to abide by most EU rules even though it isn't in the EU, because it wants a free trade agreement

Sweden certainly is in the EU. Norway ain't. Nor is Switzerland. I live next to the Swiss border and things are really, really expensive there (ever wanted to eat a not-very-good 15 Dollar burger???. Go to Basel.). they seem to do pretty well for themselves.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Clearly you are blinded by some hate and thus can't read.
Because I suggested the UK should first fix their national policies before blaming others.
I gave an example of those working in hotels and restaurants, similar will be true in other industries.
There is no EU mandated need to accept any and all that visit your country into the HSE cover, at least not they've worked for it.

Don't come with silly excuses like a fair minimum wage for your own people is a communist-like constraint onto employers.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

We both know no one in Greece is asking for a handout.

Hmmm... are you sure you want to discuss this with me? Dooon't dooo iiit patrioti!

Re: Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

Don't think they let them keep 6 and 7. You can keep 8, asshat.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

Why not? If you have any information I lack, I would love to be proven wrong. Isn't that the purpose of dialog?

Here are a few data points to prove my point. Austerity in Ireland and Portugal compared to Greece:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.c...

And Greece compared to Germany (1913-1920)

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.c...

Germany's austerity measures have proven time and time again that they do not work. And it's not a matter of corruption, or public spending, or lazy Greeks and ouzo. It's a matter of austerity in a depression being a big no-no in economics.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04...

If you have any interesting data, please share. Else, I purpose you read up on Krugman, he presents a very interesting case.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

Actually Britain's sale of goods act, which has been around for ages, is much stronger than the EU's consumer protection laws.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[khallow]

Since when are ISO standards run by the EU?

Since the standards in question were required to do business in the EU.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[MrL0G1C]

Have you any idea how bad these treaties are? Nearly two million people so far have petitioned -against TTIP - a treaty that they tried to write in secret and they tried to exclude important stakeholders.

TTIP contains ACTA - a copyright treaty which was strongly rejected by the people of the EU. If the Commission were democratically chosen which they are most certainly not then they would not be pulling this crap.

The Commission is not in any way democratic any more than civil servants are democratically chosen, it is akin to calling a quango democratic.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

There should be something like an associate member status and a probationary period, This basically is what happened in the US. A territory, once it had its shit sorted and kept it so, could apply and would be admitted as a state (or sometimes several).

Contrast this with Hungary's admission:

EU: Your economy is too state controlled and your political system is so corrupt it makes the Eyeties blush. Sort it, and you can come in.

Hu. We promise we will, really. Let us in!

EU: OK.

[time passes]

EU: About those reforms ...

Hu: Nerny nerny ner ner!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Hognoxious]

Immigrants work in the UK, pay their taxes and then return to their own countries before they burden the UK for services that those taxes pay for - benefits, pension, NHS etc.

You have a citation for that? Because I saw a study that said, with much fanfare, that they're on average net contributors. And then another that controlled for age and concluded that's because they're more concentrated around the peak age for working; compare like for like and there's not much difference.

While you may think that supports your point, it doesn't. We don't know that they go home when they're old, because they haven't been here long enough to become old.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

So what?
Any developed company or nation sets standards.
By the sound of it you had a hard time meeting a particular standard, that's most certainly not a reason to go without standards!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Cederic]

Had the people living in Scotland voted to leave the UK then I'd have accepted that choice with no fuss at all.

I was and still am however mocking the SNP desire to be independent from the UK but part of the European superstate. I think that demonstrates that independence is not their genuine desire, and that leaves their motives open to challenge.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[MrL0G1C]

Was it you who modded my post about EU, TTIP and the Commissoin as troll?

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Indeed TTIP is a horrible idea and on the EU side the UK is one significant force that tries to push it through.
Civil servants have no business in politics, that's the same for government ministers, the mandate of the voter is with their representatives in parliament and they control both the government and the civil servants they employ.
The fact the UK forms it's government from members of parliament is not the rule everywhere, typically the more suitable technocrats are found outside politics.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ThePhilips]

Luxembourg is an incredibly small but rich country. Why do they appear to be such disproportionate leeches compared to every other member state?

A nifty infographic.

Quote:

In 2013 Luxembourg received €1.6 billion in EU spending, mostly due to the presence of several EU institutions. EU administrative expenditure accounted for €1.35 billion, or 84% of total spending. Regional policy accounted for only 1.2%, far below the EU average of 42%. Farm spending accounted for only 3%, also far below the EU average of 43%. Research and development took €163 million (10%), slightly above the EU average of 8%.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Rockoon]

The EU budget is a lot of money but a small fraction of the combined national budgets.

The EU is young. That budget will only grow, and its powers and influence will only expand. Look west across the ocean. Thats your future.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Why not? If you have any information I lack, I would love to be proven wrong. Isn't that the purpose of dialog?

Of cource you are right about the purpose of dialog, but the problem is that we start from different "bases" - i can not discuss the "Greek issue" without mentioning the structural problems which are not just financial/economic but also social/cultural (i.e., our "Othomanic" ways of doing things...). I dislike Krugman, and analysis of that kind, not just because i disagree with his "left-wing" views (i am not dogmatic - i understand that he has some good points), but because he chooses to ignores some facts, the most important of which is: if we Greeks don't change our ways of running our state, even if we start with zero debt, the next day we will be in debt again. I don't know if you live in Greece (i do), but even if you don't i expect from you to know few things about those "Othomanic" ways of ours. That is why i support this German imposed austerity to us Greeks: even if it does not work so well (or as expected) in its financial/economic aspects, it helped us Greeks to have a first level suplus for the first time in years - it imposed some things we had to implement on our own, but we never did until Germans (and the rest of "Troika") "invade" our country!

I have many data - but i need to know if you live (or ever lived) in Greece patrioti!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[iONiUM]

No problem! Always happy when someone takes the time to post real, hard stats that are backed by reputable sources. This is why I read Slashdot, for comments and links like this. Many love to just throw out anecdotal or un-referenced "information", so it's nice to see this.

Plus, these kinds of worldly stats are what I really find interesting. I wish they were more mainstream.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

Personally I've always supported the idea of a 'Europe of Regions'.
Regions are typically based on simple common interests while nations share a more broader interests.
I am fully in favour of cooperation on a supra-national scale but also see that certain regions have more in common than the nations they belong to.
I don't think it takes much imagination to see Scottish culture has more in common with the Danes, Norwegians and some Dutch than with London and Southern England.
Such cooperation is easily achieved with open borders and similar administration and taxation. The present Tory government is against such, partially under the influence of UKIP.

Similar is happening in The Netherlands, because the press is largely lethargic on EU matters and like the infamous British tabloids more and more run on ridiculous headlines, we now have a significant anti-EU party that pulls on the non-left wing voters.
Cameron sees this and has announced to next week visit (among others) The Hague, no doubt in search of support of his efforts to dismantle social and consumer based EU legislation.

I think he'd better go to Hungary.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[Teun]

I look across that ocean and like what I see.
At least, I hope we aren't going with brain dead American schemes like 'Companies are Persons' :).

With nations as with companies, larger scale is often synonymous with greater efficiency and thus savings.
Yes there are policies that are best tackled on a local or regional level but things like fiscal and safety legislation are together with defence best done on a EU-wide scale.

It's that old 'Level Playing Field' that will enable greater prosperity for all without hurting the few.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Yes, i understood that you are a "give me the facts, not just your fucking opinion" kind of person - i have no problem (and i do it very often) giving my opinion (i am a Greek you know - if you have an opinion, i have 10 more than you!), but when people post numbers i like to post numbers also. By the way, if you read the whole thread, you will find that the guy i originaly replied to, answered with some L.A. newspapers article, a definition of "civil servant" beyond what is usualy used for that kind of statistics, plus a statistic of our labour force that was not what he originaly mentioned (10% of our population) - but you will find in my reply to him a link to Greek official data (checked by EU/Eurozone goverment partners) for every person payed by the Greek state (including local administration that are NOT "civil servants"). I don't try to spread lies to protect the reputation of my nation (its beyong saving!), i just hate mis-information: we never had 1 million civil servants of any kind, and because i read it very often in foreign media i get a little disapointed from the quality of information, even from reputable foreign media.

Plus keep in mind how problematic are statistics without interpretation from a local person: our latest official labour force is 51.9% of population - but in Greece around 1/3 of our economy is "grey"... every Greek knows that our real labour force is about 2/3 to 3/4 of population.

Anyway, i like people like you: you like to have YOUR opinion based on facts, not just someone else opinion - i try to be that way myself.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

I live in greece at the moment, but I'm a dual citizen. Both Greek and American.

What you call "Othomanic ways", in Greece is called "ragiadismos". It's a state of self-pity that I really never understood. And it's something easily played against your critical thinking if you choose to accept it. I really do not care for it, nor am I going to acknowledge such a false stereotype. So don't waste your time trying to talk me into it.

The way you can persuade me is with facts and numbers.

https://www.creditwritedowns.c...

This is enough to lay waste to your theory about "Lazy" Greeks/ You can make the case of richer countries being more productive, sure that's normal. But lazy? No.

Krugman is a liberal. Primary surplus means nothing with the size of the debt on us. You can buy into the misinformation if you please. But to persuade me, you will need to show me numbers.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

I live in greece at the moment, but I'm a dual citizen. Both Greek and American.

What you call "Othomanic ways", in Greece is called "ragiadismos". It's a state of self-pity that I really never understood. And it's something easily played against your critical thinking if you choose to accept it. I really do not care for it, nor am I going to acknowledge such a false stereotype. So don't waste your time trying to talk me into it.

The way you can persuade me is with facts and numbers.

I like people who are direct - i respect it. I like to be direct also:

I am a nationalist (but not socialist) - i support Golden Dawn VERY actively. You may argue that i am too pro-Europe to be GD - i do it because i am an "ANTI-FASCIST"! I just mention it because i don't consider myself to be a "ragias"

https://www.creditwritedowns.c...

This is enough to lay waste to your theory about "Lazy" Greeks/ You can make the case of richer countries being more productive, sure that's normal. But lazy? No.

Few hours ago i made a reply to a fellow Greek - read what HE wrote!. But you want data: why don't you go to any field growing any product and ask any producer about the ethnicity of his workers... 1.5 million unemployed Greeks, about 1 million illegal immigrants working full time in Greece - i, even as a nationalist, am unable to blame the illegal immigrants working in the fields that they steal the work of Greeks, because NO Greek is interested to work there. O.K., i have a friend (until a couple of years ago was one of the most well known Greek SCADA engineers!) currently working in his father's fields... but he is a rare case - tsekare tora enan "anergo".

Krugman is a liberal. Primary surplus means nothing with the size of the debt on us. You can buy into the misinformation if you please. But to persuade me, you will need to show me numbers.

Oh... you want numbers... i respect numbers, and i respect people who respect numbers, but when i deal with Greeks the "numbers" become a way to avoid the truth. Sou to egrapsa apo tin arxi: tha kataliksoume na brizomaste me ta gnosta "ante gamisou re malaka" kai ta loipa... asto re patrioti, giati na xalasoumai tis kardies mas? Se ligo tha exoumai pali ekloges (elpizo!), as pame na apofasisoumai ti theloumai na ginei stin Ellada. Pare kai ena binteaki tora gia na min nomizeis pos thimosa: oi Germanoi ksanarxontai!

Re:Yes to Brexit

[ale3ns]

Dude numbers please. You're giving me anecdotal evidence. I'm guessing you're one of those Athenian Golden Dawn members then. You should actually visit agriculture based cities. I live in Lamia. Most of my friends are in the agriculture business. You could have made that argument a few years ago (and still not be correct), but today illegal immigrants are basically out of a job here. That's because Greeks are taking their low income jobs, not because they are better, but because they are Greeks that are doing their job at the same price illegal immigrants used to do the job for.

It's the same in the US by the way. Illegal immigrants, usually from Latin america take over low income jobs in the US too. That's not because "Americans are lazy". You have to really understand why an illegal immigrant is selling his work that low. It has everything to do with him seeing his pay tripled compared to say Albania..See how frowned upon H1B visas are here on Slashdot.. That's not because "Americans are lazy", but it's because corporations use it as a way to drive down costs in the workforce, ignoring the standard of living in the US.

I do not believe in ism's. Ism's in my opinion are not good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

Your heart is in the right place, but the GD is using it against you. You should be proud of your nation. But right now, you're in danger of becoming your nation's disgrace. Just ask the Germans you eagerly agree with about their Nazi history. Germans (the people, not the leadership) are hard working and good people. I do not believe for an instance that their politics in the world wars had anything to do with their people being evil or the sort. It does have everything to do with economy and bad leadership though.

Greece is living Germany's pre world war days. It's sad their media has such a twisted agenda.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[jabuzz]

Hum, enforced loan at zero interest, in 1940's. In today's money with zero interest that would be around 60 billion euro. Would pretty much solve the Greece's insolvency problem over night I think you will find.

Greece has never conceded that the debt is forgiven, so Germany is pretty much on the hook for Greece's insolvency.

Personally if I where the Greece government I would make a point of refusing to pay a some of money to Germany and being very public about why it was doing it. Given that most of the Greece debt is held by German banks...

Re:Yes to Brexit

[khallow]

By the sound of it you had a hard time meeting a particular standard, that's most certainly not a reason to go without standards!

Actually it is. You have to do a cost/benefits analysis to see if the standard is worth following. But a standard which is hard to meet combined with low value from following the standard is something you shouldn't be entertaining.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[david_thornley]

Devaluation is forced austerity. If Greek was on the drachma, the drachma would have fallen in value. Therefore, imports would cost more in drachmas, and Greek exports would bring in more drachmas. This is a market solution that would result in more euros coming into Greece and fewer leaving it.

Re:Yes to Brexit

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Dude numbers please. You're giving me anecdotal evidence. I'm guessing you're one of those Athenian Golden Dawn members then. You should actually visit agriculture based cities. I live in Lamia. Most of my friends are in the agriculture business. You could have made that argument a few years ago (and still not be correct), but today illegal immigrants are basically out of a job here. That's because Greeks are taking their low income jobs, not because they are better, but because they are Greeks that are doing their job at the same price illegal immigrants used to do the job for.

I live in Athens but i was borned and raised in agriculture based city, which i often visit - while i accept that things changed, i can still claim that the vast majority of workers in big fields are illegal immigrants. Plus, here in Athens those illegal immigrants also have jobs in (low pay) second and third sectors of economy. I gave you numbers: at least 1 million illegal immigrants work, survive, and raise their families (so, i am not talking about those who are here just in-between their route to rest of Europe) in a Greece with 1.5 million unemployed Greeks.

It's the same in the US by the way. Illegal immigrants, usually from Latin america take over low income jobs in the US too. That's not because "Americans are lazy". You have to really understand why an illegal immigrant is selling his work that low. It has everything to do with him seeing his pay tripled compared to say Albania..See how frowned upon H1B visas are here on Slashdot.. That's not because "Americans are lazy", but it's because corporations use it as a way to drive down costs in the workforce, ignoring the standard of living in the US.

I agree. My latest (i have made others too) relevant comment: http://slashdot.org/comments.p...

Your heart is in the right place, but the GD is using it against you. You should be proud of your nation. But right now, you're in danger of becoming your nation's disgrace. Just ask the Germans you eagerly agree with about their Nazi history. Germans (the people, not the leadership) are hard working and good people. I do not believe for an instance that their politics in the world wars had anything to do with their people being evil or the sort. It does have everything to do with economy and bad leadership though. Greece is living Germany's pre world war days. It's sad their media has such a twisted agenda.

I am glad that you are not the usual kind of anti-GD (plus, i understand that you are not "ashamed" for been a Greek, just because "you must be ashamed"...)! Anyway, i am not a kid, i have my religion protecting me from becoming an evil person hating foreigners, but... "illegal immigrants" are "illegal immigrants" - if not for any other reason, at least GD defends language and, by that, logic (see my sig).

Overblown

[pjt33]

The headline exaggerates, anyway. The e-mail doesn't contain a Top-Secret "Brexit" Plan: merely the top-secret fact that the bank is going to be working on a "Brexit" plan. It's neither a surprise that they're doing this, nor a surprise that they want to keep it secret: the finance ministers of certain other European countries were already offended by the Bank of England having a Grexit plan.

Re:Overblown

[peragrin]

exactly. I bet they also had all sorts of contingency plans, and meetings if Scotland voted to leave the UK too.

The USA has military plans to invade Canada, and the UK. and they keep them updated. it is war game scenarios just in case and it makes for easy test cases for new people to think about.

Re:Overblown

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Nooo... a headline that exaggerates? Anyway, the Bank of Greece has Grexit AND/OR Brexit plans, and it's a TOP but surely not SECRET job of any nation's central bank to do it for its nation and/or any other nation (especialy if they share a union)...

Re:Overblown

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

I bet they also had all sorts of contingency plans, and meetings if Scotland voted to leave the UK too.

They did. In fact, none of this is really a surprise to anyone involved, because this kind of contingency planning is part of the Bank's official responsibilities.

As far as I can see, the only problem here is the premature release of information that could be politically/diplomatically sensitive via an inappropriate channel and at an awkward time for the government. It doesn't look like this exposed any wrong-doing, and it's not like the other EU leaders our Prime Minister is starting to negotiate with wouldn't have expected it, even if it's not great PR given the delicacy of those negotiations.

Re:Overblown

[Kjella]

And yet it's an obvious case for cheap political rhetoric, "What do you mean that's never going to happen? You're sitting there making plans for it right now!" I don't think you should underestimate the explosive power of contingency plans. For example in a supply chain you might have a contingency plan in case your business partners, vendor or distribution network turn shit but nobody's going to like that you have a plan to stab them in the back. And there's always those who willingly or unintentionally confuse planning in case of failure with planning for failure.

TL;DR: Some things you should just keep your mouth shut about, even if makes sense.

Re:Overblown

[Citizen of Earth]

In principle, there could be parts of the plan that require secrecy in order to work. Otherwise, if the market knew a particular move was coming, it would react to it before it happened which could defeat the purpose of various possible moves.

Re:Overblown

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

Potentially, but the reports I've seen only disclosed the existence of a planning process, not the results, which don't seem to have been determined yet. Everyone who might be affected in the kind of way you described will have known or assumed that the relevant people would be making these kinds of plans anyway, so it seems no real harm has been done here.

Re:Overblown

[penguinoid]

As far as I can see, the only problem here is the premature release of information that could be politically/diplomatically sensitive via an inappropriate channel and at an awkward time for the government.

Yeah, it sounds like the bank accidentally emailed the press their secret study as to who would be committing economic suicide if they voted which way, just before the vote.

Re: Overblown

[GrantRobertson]

Exactly. It would be a dereliction of duty to NOT be working on such a contingency plan right now.

Re:Overblown

[Teun]

Which raises an interesting question for the Dutch.
After they sold their own national bank, privatisation and such, the Dutch government is now using the Royal Bank of Scotland as it's house bank.
Have they been tasked with, or maybe studied a Dutch exit on their own initiative?

Re:Overblown

[antiperimetaparalogo]

I can't believe they did that, seriously? I mean, i could understand if they sold just the commersial part of their central/national bank (the agreement is that EUROzone central banks can not have such activities anymore, becoming parts of the European Central Bank - ECB), but the full thing?! To be honest i would not be so suprised if they did that - Dutch are great people, but sometimes they feel like they must prove to the world how much "ahead of their time" they are, so they go really extra stupid...

By the way, the only central bank(s) still not respecting the agreement is a) i think the Belgian b) I KNOW VERY WELL... our own Greek central/national bank (it is even in the Athens stock exchange!).

Re:Overblown

[Bromrrrrr]

Bullpucky by the parent poster. The dutch central bank is alive and well with no plans to sell it.

I am guessing Teun is referring to the recent decision by the dutch government to sell ABN-Amro. A bank that has been nationalised ~2008 because they were about to go under (hurray for the free market).

Offtopic: ABN-Amro was bought for around 22 billion and will sell for around 15 billion right now. Hurray for the pond scum that profited from that.

Re:Overblown

[Hognoxious]

That's a bit of an oversimplification. He's probably both.

Re:Overblown

[Teun]

You are to an extend correct.
At the same time that bank is not involved in the daily business of our government, that's since a few years in the hands of RBS.

Re:Overblown

[antiperimetaparalogo]

Hmmm... some other Slashdoter informed me that what you wrote to me originaly is not correct, BUT: even while he is correct, you are also correct (with the latest info you add). Since your central bank is not involved in the daily business of your governmentm then it is not a real (national) "central bank" - our Greek central bank is not just a department of European Central Bank but ALSO the bank our state (the whole public sector) use for its various everyday banking activities. To be honest (and please don't get offended if you are a Dutch as i guess) i find it stupid a state/goverment not to have its own bank dealing its everyday banking business, when there are big private corporation (or even certain very rich individuals*) that have their own bank!

* A friend of mine works as an economist in the very small private bank of a very rich Greek ship-owner/investor who has so many daily transactions that prefers to do them from his own bank! note: this bank has only one "customer" account: that of its owner, exclusively.

Re:Overblown

[Teun]

I think we agree.
There is good reason for a sovereign state to run it's own bank, not to farm it out to some commercial enterprise.
My original post was badly worded, I am against too much privatisation of essential services to the nation and population.

Re:Overblown

[antiperimetaparalogo]

I am very righ-wing, i am very pro austerity (as imposed by you, northern-Europeans EU partners, to us fucking Greeks! Show no mercy - and i am serious...), but there is a limit in what you just mentioned: "There is good reason for a sovereign state to run it's own bank" - i still believe that Greece is a sovereign state, and while i demand from you, northern-Europeans EU partners, to invade my country and treat us fucking Greeks as NaZi would had (I AM SERIOUS!), i will never agree in giving up my nation's central bank, because i want Greece to continue to be a sovereign state in the future...

I feel that a nation's central bank is similar to its army: national - we still need them, both national armies, plus national banks (note: i am a very pro-European, even a "con-federalist", but still... i am a Greek nationalist!)

Re:Overblown

[Teun]

Heh, what I really l hope for in the long run is that us Europeans start talking about a sovereign European nation.
We should all keep our regional differences and be proud of them but start to feel like what we are, members of the great European nation.
Be proud of what we share, cherish what makes us unique.

Re:Overblown

[antiperimetaparalogo]

I don't have a problem with a European nation, and i would love (i.e., if others, e.g., northerners like Dutch people, want my Greek bad company...) to be part of it (here in Slashdot i often make fun of non-Greeks by calling them barbarians, but i am just joking... most of the times!)... what i have a serious problem with is, e.g., becoming a bitch of some Islamic state, because some fellow Europeans (e.g. Dutch!) are too "sensitive", so they don't like to hear me saying how much i hate Muslims - that my fellow European is something i can not tolerate, and as a Greek i have the responsibility to make YOU barbarians understand that "Europe" is the Greek name of a woman belonging to our guy, Zeus... i will not let filthy Muhammad fuck her.

We are in Slashdot, i am new here, but i already understand that (Greek-European) nationalists -like me- are not very welcomed (you are probably -because of your 5 digit account!- one of those who are not so glad to read my comments - no need to "apologize" if that is true, i understand and respect anyones right to not like me or people like me) - but you have to understand that when i have EU "directives" that make my comments illegal as "hate speech"... i am not so comfortable with our new European nation... yet!

What does this mean?

[sound vision]

So there's an upcoming referendum on leaving the EU... do we expect their government to not be investigating the implications of that? It would be grossly incompetent for them not to investigate what would happen, if there's any chance that it will.

So, what's supposed to be the news here? Is leaving the EU something that was not considered within the realm of possibility, but this leak demonstrates the seriousness of it? I don't follow UK/EU internal politics. (Except for Jeremy Clarkson... freedom to fracas! Reinstate Jeremy!)

Re:What does this mean?

[Barny]

Except this has nothing to do with the government (except of course for the outcome of the referendum). This is basically the bank internally speculating in regards to what would happen and what they would need to do to keep afloat in a very turbulent section of the world (should Brexit happen, that is).

The linked article makes no use whatsoever of the phrase "Top-Secret". It is a secret of the bank's, sure, but Top-Secret refers to official government secrets.

Basically, Slashdot's getting into the click-bait business now.

Re:What does this mean?

[Shimbo]

There isn't really much news here. The Bank of England is somewhat independent of government, so it gets to offer an expert opinon on some possible scenarios. However, it needs to keep some appearance of impartiality, so it will make it in confidence.

If its advice were "Holy shit, you really don't want to do this", that would be a story.

Re:What does this mean?

[weilawei]

Getting into? You must be... *looks at UID*

What *is* your excuse, anyway?

Re:What does this mean?

[Barny]

My excuse?

Uh, hrmm... *checks the calander* Oh! That's right. My excuse for this one was a strong burning sensation and gut pain.

My excuse for what?

Re:What does this mean?

[weilawei]

My excuse for what?

Basically, Slashdot's getting into the click-bait business now.

Slashdot has been in the clickbait business for a long while now.

"Leak". Yeah. Sure.

[Opportunist]

I can only wonder how incredible the timing of those "leaks" always happens to be. Just not that the big discussion is brewing on whether the UK should retain its "Brit-rebate" and other undue privileges, we get to hear that the sky is falling over Europe should they dare to withdraw.

Timely blunders indeed.

Re:"Leak". Yeah. Sure.

[Anonymous Coward]

What is undue about the British rebate? It appears the rebate was initially agreed upon in order to address structural differences in the economies of Britain and France. The relative amounts of industrial/financial income vs agricultural in Britain and France would have the Brits paying for French agricultural practices. The original agreement was a specific fix to address this.

    I take a dim view of those who would sling arrows yet at the same time insist upon the target's loyalty.

Re:"Leak". Yeah. Sure.

[robi5]

> Anyway, the EU seems perfectly happy to subsidise basket case economies like greece , italy and spain not to mention the waste of space eastern european countries that contribute fuck all apart from their citizens who just move to the west and undercut the local wage rates, so whats the problem?

Don't mix up the economic issues of South Europe with that of Eastern Europe. Most countries in Eastern Europe have industrious, striving populations that, after shedding the Socialism, have been working on improving their economy. It's pretty hard to catch up after many decades of oppression, which was preceded by hundreds of years of other hardship. For example, this part of Europe helped decelerate and ultimately stop and reverse the advancement of the Ottoman Empire. History here was a bit less fortunate. By the way, these countries combined make up a pretty large market, in the region of 100m or more people. Products made all over Europe, incl. Germany and France are prevalent here, and many firms of Western origin win large infrastructure projects, or have privatised, at low cost and some baksish to the former communist officials, most of the industry, banks and utilities.

It's impossible to quickly create income, let alone wealth, and political stability and a large, common market is in the interest of all, therefore Eastern Europe benefits from crucial, yet fairly modest cohesion funds. For example, Hungary gets a little over €2bn a year, spent mostly towards large infrastructure projects.

It is for this reason I find it appalling to compare such funds to those that have been moved and sacrificed for the economies of the Periphery, first and foremost, Greece, but also the rest of the PIGS states. Greece, Portugal and Ireland are similar to Hungary in size and population, and, rather than the above mentioned couple of Bn per year, suddenly hundreds and thousands of billions of Euro were thrown on the fire.

Hungary is almost a worst-case country where the irresponsible Socialist government indebted the country in the 2000s just to retain their power (assisted in doing so by Western financial institutions...), and Hungary still stood up, there was no special bailout during the global mortgage lending crisis or the Greek crisis. But countries where such indebtment didn't happen, e.g. Poland, Slovakia, Romania, have continued to grow even during the period the rest of Europe stagnated. Hungary also rejoined the growth club last year.

So it's a bit of an insult to liken the much needed and useful trickle of funds towards EE countries with the high caliber financial support for the already relatively wealthy and comfortable, massively indebted Southern periphery. Let's not forget that East Germany's revival costed West Germany about €2000Bn, and similar sized Hungary received about €40Bn in cohesion funds.

Re:"Leak". Yeah. Sure.

[Opportunist]

Germany has shown it before, with a Fascist government growth is possible despite all odds. At a terrible price, but hey, growth!

Study == execute?

[khchung]

Project Bookend is a secret (or 'was' a secret) initiative undertaken by the BOE to study what the fallout might be from a potential 'Brexit'

Good, so BOE management is doing their job, making plans for different scenarios that might happen. With the current situation in Europe, some countries might exit EU is not a very far-fetched scenario.

Calling this the "equivalent of the Manhattan project" is a major journalist FAIL here. The Manhattan Project is to build the bomb, not to study the fallout that might come from one. If the Project Bookend is a plan to make it happen, then the comparison might make some sense.

Yeah, I know, we can't expect much from journalists writing click-bait articles, but it should be called out nonetheless.

A massive exaggeration - author should be ashamed

[petes_PoV]

The "story" is merely a leaked email that the project exists.

There is no information about what its remit is (past looking at the consequences of a BRexit). There is no information about the project's findings - as there haven't been any and there is nothing about what recommendations or actions would / could / should be taken.

In the end this is just a piece of sensationalism and I greatly resent the author of this /. piece hyping it up far beyond any factual basis.

Why the secrecy?

[TommyNelson]

Seems silly to be so coy about such a study. Actually, the government should have commissioned it publicly and presented the expected results of a possible "Brexit" to the nation. That way people could make a much more informed decision when voting at the referendum.

Re:Why the secrecy?

[drinkypoo]

Seems silly to be so coy about such a study.

They only publicize the studies that say what they want to say. Occasionally the media finds eyeballs in another study and slaps it around, but in general you hear the most about what they want you to hear about.

Delusion of grandeur

[William Baric]

Comparing the intellectual masturbation of some economists with the Manhattan project?

What's next? Comparing the drawing of 4 years old with Michelangelo's frescoes?

As a Finn

[blind biker]

I am very much in support of Britain leaving the EU. Later, if and when Scotland gains independence, I would be happy to see them join. But britain, with their retrograde social policies like expensive higher education, weakening unions etc. should stay the fuck away from the Western world.

Re:As a Finn

[Livius]

It isn't Britain without Scotland.

Re:As a Finn

[serviscope_minor]

No, but it was Britain that voted for the retrograde policies. If you recall the vote was only won because the Scottish Labour MPs decided they thought it'd be jolly nice to vote to make the English pay fees.

Without Scotland there'd be no university fees in England.

Had the MPs had a shred of decency and stayed out, the vote would have been lost comfortably.

Re:As a Finn

[serviscope_minor]

Scotland has it's own parliament, England doesn't. Scottish MPs can vote on English matters, but not the reverse. It's known as the "West Lothian Question".

If you think it's reasonable for Scotland's currency to be backed by the entire UK, but the UK not having a say over how it's used then you're essentially asking for Scotland to have a bunch of free stuff.

Re:As a Finn

[Cederic]

The English, Welsh and Irish MPs had already absolved themselves of any and all authority of Scottish tuition fees, so lets fucking quibble.

Thank fuck the SNP are only a minority party in the UK parliament, they'll be doing their utmost to fuck over the people living in England (which includes a lot of Scots) with the comfortable knowledge that this is not a reciprocal relationship.

Re:As a Finn

[AK Marc]

Defense from whom? Is Liberia going to invade Scotland?

Re:As a Finn

[AK Marc]

That's not what they said at the last independence vote, less than a year ago.

Yes, and?

[argStyopa]

Of COURSE they're studying the consequences of a potential Brexit; believe me, the fact that there will likely be a referendum on it means the chance is greater than zero and thus EVERY responsible financial entity is doing the same.
And chattering that they are who they are, it would be almost criminally negligent if they weren't studying it closely.

In the same sense the U.S. army had http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki..., because unless they're busy with an active war (and even then), their job as a government agency is very specifically to consider and plan for any conceivable future.

Of course the troubling bit is the incompetence of mailing this to the news agencies, unless that was deliberate, which itself doesn't seem that unreasonable/incomprehensible, now that I think of it (except if it actually costs the minister a job he'd have preferred to keep).

The business situation isn't clear either way

[Anonymous Brave Guy]

And apparently your banks had it as well, they already warned that you exit EU, they move back to Hong Kong.

People keep posting this, but seem to be referring to only one bank, HSBC. It would be a loss economically if they went, but there is a lot of scare-mongering going on about what would happen to big business if we do/don't leave. No-one really knows how many, if any, of these big businesses would really follow through on their threats if they don't get the result they want.

There have also been leaders of big business arguing for leaving. The main argument is that it would make it easier for the UK to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with other rising economic powers around the world if it were not tied to the EU.

And there have certainly been plenty of small businesses criticising all the badly implemented rules from the EU recently on everything from VAT to consumer protection, which are creating an absurd burden particularly in the growing on-line sector. In theory we are supposed to benefit from more trade as a result, but some less charitable/more realistic commentators have pointed out that many nations in the EU are still in such a poor state financially that they generate almost no custom for things like new on-line businesses anyway.

The difficulty with all of these issues is that since no-one can see far into the future, none of us really know which agreements are more important to keep or develop and which are just getting in the way now. It's all just marginally-educated guesses.

Re:The business situation isn't clear either way

[drinkypoo]

People keep posting this, but seem to be referring to only one bank, HSBC.

Getting rid of HSBC seems worth almost any amount of money.

Eurovision

[Mendy]

Hmm... give us douze points or we Brexit?

Re:Eurovision

[ale3ns]

I support this strategy. lulz

Re:Ok bye!

[Anonymous Coward]

Yep. We're nothing but a pain in the ass and (the fourth or fifth largest) net contributor to the EU budget.

On balance I don't think we should leave, but you'd have to be delusional to think it's in the EU's interest for us to leave.

Yes Minister

[Mendy]

Not much has changed in 30 years...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxwhBNo5yeg&feature=youtu.be&t=2m18s/

and of course...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzeDZtx3wUw&feature=youtu.be&t=1m15s

Pathetic level of debate.

[MrL0G1C]

When it comes to debate, all of the reasons given for UK staying in the EU are typical sound bites, vagaries and bad analogies.

Some reasons against staying in the EU are:

The Commission is undemocratic, unaccountable and unelected.

The Commission keeps writing bad treaties that are severely to the detriment of EU citizens and only to the benefit of global corporations, treaties like ACTA, TTIP, CETA and TISA.

The EU wants it's own army and is clearly working towards getting one.

At the same time the EU and US leaders have been antagonising Russia.

It's like the Commission, EU president et al have read 1984 and are using it as a handbook on how to run the EU.

I am British

[Happy Welsh Wizard]

We will leave. No doubt about it. The immigration issue is the deal breaker. Accepting a million immigrants every three years is not sustainable on a smallish island reliant on imports for food.

They used the wrong rule

[future assassin]

The first rule of Cannabis club is, you don't remember the first rule.

"accidentally"

[MrL0G1C]

Does anyone actually believe the Bank of England's top press guy 'accidentally' emailed this to the Guardian, the paper most likely to run with it. Why even pretend?

Message beyond the accident

[manu0601]

It does not look like an accident, but rather like a message: "Civil servant did the grunt work, now the People has to decide and the political leaders will just have to push the button. Do not believe anyone telling you we cannot do it"

It's time to end the 4th Reich.

[jcr]

I wish the best to Britain, and to the rest of the people of Europe in their efforts to break the power of the unelected apparatchiki who have attempted to usurp their sovereignty.

-jcr

Weird....

[dabeshu]

Interesting. Makes me wonder if it was perhaps for whatever reason e-mailed on purpose.

Brexit would be economic disasters

[Martin Spamer]

If Britain exited the EU we would be subject to an economic disaster.

However the problem is we look set to be steered into this be minority interests of the likes or Murdock and Barclay Brothers that control the UK media and see their old school power base slipping away under increased integration. The mass media is full of fabricated up news about the EU banning bent bananas and imposing the 'French' metric system which as in reality invented by John Wilkins, a Brit.

Not surprised

[CanadianMacFan]

Especially with the referendum coming up. It's their job to try and be prepared for events. You don't want them to be making up policies on the fly the day after the vote. I'm sure that the Bank of Canada has a plan that they dust off every so often in case Quebec leaves Canada (which I hope they never do).

Forward planning

[Leofcwen]

If you fail to plan you plan to fail. I wouldn't be surprised if the BoE had teams of people working on plans for all sorts of possibilities, some in partnership with the military. I used to think the US government and military did the same thing for all sorts of possibilities involving national security until Obama kept saying that they had no strategy for dealing with IS/ISIS/ISIL (choose your favourite initials here) and admitted they didn't see the mass influx of illegal immigrants/criminal gangs/terrorists before it happened.

All your EU future is belong to Scotland

[WillAffleckUW]

Abandon London, nothing of consequence remains there.

Scotland, a free independent and green country, is where your future lies.