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Using Math To Tune a Video Game's Economy

Posted by Soulskill on from the as-opposed-to-tuning-it-with-music-theory dept.

An anonymous reader writes: When the shipping deadline was approaching for The Witcher 3, designer Matthew Steinke knew there was a big part of the game still missing: its economy. A game's economy is one of the things that can make or break immersion — you want collection and rewards to feel progressive and meaningful. Making items too expensive gives the game a grindy feel, while making them too cheap makes progression trivial. At the Game Developers Conference underway in Germany, Steinke explained his solution.

"Steinke created a formula that calculated attributes like how much damage, defense, or healing that each item provided, and he placed them into an overall combat rating could be used to rank other items in the system. ... Steinke set about blending the sub-categories into nine generalized categories, allowing him to determine the final weighting for damage and the range of prices for each item. To test if it all worked, he used polynomial least squares (a form of mathematical statistics) to chart each category's price progression. The resultant curve (pictured below) showed the rate at which spending was increasing as the quality of each item approached the category's ceiling value."

96 comments

  1. It's the big problem with space games by drinkypoo · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As you say, you want to feel like your economic choices have consequence, and not just for your pocketbook. If I buy all the fish in town, then not only should the price of fish go up, but the fishing industry should spend its money in predictable locations and boost other industries.

    As my subject line alludes, the real place this crops up again and again is in space games. If I'm buying and selling the complete available product of a planet in some particular industry, that should have significant effects. Or, if I blow up a bunch of cargo ships carrying spaceship parts, then that should have significant and immediately noticeable effects. Instead, none of this is true at all in basically any game but EVE.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    1. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Nethemas+the+Great · · Score: 2

      The common audience for these games wouldn't appreciate such nuance/sophistication. EVE is very much a "geek's" game. EVE's complex economics and politics tends to drive away the casual/braindead players.

      --
      Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once ... with negative results.
    2. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      EVE is overrated - it's just a libertarian fantasy-land without any of the truly damaging human consequences.

    3. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Harlequin80 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      X3 came close-ish to achieving it. The price of a good was relative to the available stock. Some stations consumed certain items to make others so over time their stock levels would drop and they would offer more and more money to restock. Energy cells were the base resource used by most stations so they were a good place to start in the economy.

      The real problem though was there was no real top end consumers creating enough demand so the game dumped resources at various points to keep everything moving. And it was too easy to dominate the whole economy with a super station. Your personal business empire kept expanding but nothing else did. If you picked one of the unknown sectors to build your base you became an economic god with nothing that could stand in your way.

    4. Re:It's the big problem with space games by alvinrod · · Score: 2

      The problem is that creating a realistic economy requires writing a lot of code to handle that game behavior as well as ensuring that the game behavior realistically models a real economy, or at least enough so in order to be satisfying.

      EVE (and many MMOs) get around this problem by having the players drive the economy, which means that you don't need to code much AI to handle this as the players will tend to make intelligent decisions and create a functional economy. The only remaining issue is for developers to ensure that there're sufficient "sinks" in the economy so that inflation doesn't get out of control. EVE tends to do better here because the game allows for practically all player assets to be destroyed and leave the economy, whereas other MMOs tend to be limited in terms of what can be destroyed or permanently lost.

    5. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are other space games except EVE?

    6. Re:It's the big problem with space games by techno-vampire · · Score: 2

      Or, if I blow up a bunch of cargo ships carrying spaceship parts...

      Actually, there should be some lag, until merchants find out what's happened, and the effect should expand gradually as the news spreads. And, that means you have a window of opportunity to buy up as much of those parts as you can before prices go up, assuming that you can get your instructions to your agents fast enough.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    7. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Calydor · · Score: 2

      Fast enough?

      "Guys, I'm blowing up five hundred transport ships with ship parts on Thursday. Get ready."

      --
      -=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
    8. Re:It's the big problem with space games by znrt · · Score: 1

      having the players drive the economy, which means that you don't need to code much AI to handle this as the players will tend to make intelligent decisions and create a functional economy

      oh, there's that invisible hand again. no, it doesn't work in games either.

    9. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Rockoon · · Score: 2

      Some stations consumed certain items to make others so over time their stock levels would drop and they would offer more and more money to restock.

      Yet the price of what those stations produced didnt reflect the prices of the raw materials needed, and stations making what should be large profits just swallow the money into oblivion, and when stations should be out of money they magically have an endless supply anyways.

      The elephant in the room is that its not an economy. In an economy the actors are each trying to benefit from their transactions, most transactions are wins for both parties, consequences when they aren't, motivation to eliminate losses, motivation to reinvest gains, and so on. Thats just not happening in these A.I. economies. Its not even close.

      Now, I am a firm believer in duck theory. It doesnt have to work at all like a real economy, all it has to do is look like it does. But again these games fail for the same reasons I pointed out above.

      The best simulated economy in a game that I am aware of was in Capitalism II released over 15 years ago, and even that had serious flaws, but at least the competing A.I. CEO's could go broke and tried not to.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    10. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      Friday's board meeting: Umm, chaps, I don't really know how to put this. Plasmo-blasters, well, you know they aren't 100% reliable ...

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    11. Re:It's the big problem with space games by JazzXP · · Score: 1

      I believe this is one of the goals of Star Citizen and the way it generates missions for players and NPC's.

    12. Re:It's the big problem with space games by murdocj · · Score: 1

      The common audience for these games wouldn't appreciate such nuance/sophistication. EVE is very much a "geek's" game. EVE's complex economics and politics tends to drive away the casual/braindead players.

      What you meant to say was "drives away the people with actual lives"

    13. Re:It's the big problem with space games by khallow · · Score: 2

      EVE is overrated - it's just a libertarian fantasy-land without any of the truly damaging human consequences.

      Congrats, you just described every computer game ever.

    14. Re:It's the big problem with space games by alvinrod · · Score: 2

      I'm not really sure what you mean, but the markets created by players tend to be better approximations of real markets than entirely AI markets and they can also drive game play and player interaction, all without requiring additional development effort.

      Let's use a simple example of crafting healing potions that are consumed by other players. If no one needs those potions, no one will buy them, so it's probably not as valuable to bother making them. But if they are used, the price will naturally increase as there's more demand than supply and so other players will be drawn to craft those potions. If the materials to make those are limited and also exist in the game world, you might have more contention over them and players fighting over them if the game allows PvP combat and the possibility of other players being paid to act as protection for these efforts or people harassing opposing factions or groups to prevent them from acquiring those resources.

      Games like EVE allow for that kind of result, which creates a type of game world that some players enjoy and it doesn't require large amounts of developer effort to create a functional AI driven economy or scripted game play that mimics the scenario above. I'm not sure how you can claim that the notion of the invisible hand doesn't work in games when there's a particularly good example of it working well. I can't think of any game I've played that as an entirely AI-driven economy that's come anywhere close to creating the same kind of experience you can get from EVE. The economy in that game is such a good approximation that they even had a massive ponzi scam several years ago.

    15. Re:It's the big problem with space games by khallow · · Score: 1

      oh, there's that invisible hand again. no, it doesn't work in games either.

      Depends what you're trying to do. It works for the developer of Eve, CCP Games. It works for the players who have fun and get goods when and where they need them.

      In fact, I wager you don't have any actual experience with a market since otherwise you wouldn't make such a dumb claim.

    16. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sex is overrated - it's just fun and satisfying.

    17. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As you say, you want to feel like your economic choices have consequence, and not just for your pocketbook.

      I agree with the phoney economics of most video games. I think Mass Effect 1 was about the worst I have ever seen. A mid to high end sniper rifle (Hammer VII) will cost you 152,000 creds to buy. BUT if you have one in your inventory and wanted to sell, the store will only offer you 24,000 creds for it.

    18. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Nethemas+the+Great · · Score: 1

      I thought I did say that...

      --
      Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once ... with negative results.
    19. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Star Citizens goals are pretty much irrelevant since it's unlikely any of them will actually be met

    20. Re:It's the big problem with space games by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      There are other space games except EVE?

      My net connection is lame and I don't like time dilation so EVE is right out for me. If a game doesn't have single-player, I won't spend any significant amount of money on it.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    21. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 2

      Yet the price of what those stations produced didnt reflect the prices of the raw materials needed, and stations making what should be large profits just swallow the money into oblivion, and when stations should be out of money they magically have an endless supply anyways.

      Yes, but I suspect that if you could actually do all that and make it real, then it wouldn't be any fun.

      The whole idea of a game is to win, to come out on top. There has to be a way to do that.

      In reality, most people can't do that. :)

    22. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      EVE is overrated - it's just a libertarian fantasy-land without any of the truly damaging human consequences.

      Yes, EVE's problem is that it allows player 1 to be a complete dick about things, screw you over, and totally get away with it.

      There is no real justice, it is like the wild west, but without the ability to hunt that player down and kill them.

      If you behave in the real world the way players behave in EVE, you wouldn't live very long. Sooner or later, someone would simply shoot you and be done with it.

    23. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      EVE tends to do better here because the game allows for practically all player assets to be destroyed and leave the economy

      Yes, but what is broken about EVE is that while you can smash a player's stuff, that player can't actually get revenge.

      Oh sure, they can build back up and smash your stuff, but lets be honest, that isn't likely to happen.

      What is more likely to happen is the person who lost everything has nothing to live for and decides to kill the player who hurt them.

      In the real world, if you actual treat people the way people do in EVE, sooner or later, someone will do something about it, and it won't be to smash your stuff, but rather you.

      Frankly, I think it is only a matter of time before someone playing the game gets hurt bad enough to track down a player in real life and kill them.

    24. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wouldn't say that all computer games are libertarian.

    25. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Talderas · · Score: 1

      In the Wild West most people wouldn't hunt down an individual that wronged them. They'd report it to the sheriff who would post a wanted poster which would attract bounty hunters to go hunt down the criminal.

      EVE lets you place bounties on other players.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    26. Re:It's the big problem with space games by delt0r · · Score: 1

      So other games have no dicks or anything? Please the eve is where the trolls are just doesn't hold water. 2mins on xbox live and every single game is nothing but tools, dicks and trolls. At least in eve there are a lot of people that really do try to help. From just general people in the system your in all the way to entire corps/Alliances dedicated to new pilots.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    27. Re:It's the big problem with space games by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Oh sure, they can build back up and smash your stuff, but lets be honest, that isn't likely to happen.

      What eve do you play. That happens all the time. Also most of your stuff is safe in a station. You don't have to "build back up", you just get another ship.

      In the real world, if you actual treat people the way people do in EVE, sooner or later, someone will do something about it, and it won't be to smash your stuff, but rather you.

      Oh FFS enough with the everyone is bad on eve bullshit. It is in fact better than any other game i have played. I have been escorted 20 nullsec jumps to highsec when i i got stranded. For nothing. I have had people give ISK and i give ISK to new players that derped and lost a ship. The list goes on..

      and stop with the real life bullshit. IT is interent space pixels. Keep it in perspective, hell you can't even kill someone in EVE, unlike other games out there.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    28. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depends what you're trying to do. It works for the developer of Eve, CCP Games. It works for the players who have fun and get goods when and where they need them.

      In other words, it only works on a very limited scale for a very limited range of problems. Hey, I'm happy for Eve's success, but its (checking wiki) 500k subscribers is a small number in the grand scheme of things. Just like how some small dinky socialist European nation isn't indication that socialism would work on a large scale, Eve isn't any indication that markets would work on a large scale

      In fact, I wager you don't have any actual experience with a market since otherwise you wouldn't make such a dumb claim.

      Me too. As above, markets only work in limited scale, so I wager he hasn't experienced markets, as most people deal with the larger global economy than whatever local market they have, if any. It's one of the pains of growing up. You realize all the fairy tales and fantasy you see in games don't actually work out in reality.

    29. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Neither of this is true. While the game is quite complex; you can find and enjoy your niche. You just need to have some tolerance for failures; and know from the start that EVE is at its heart a PvP game (i.e. the only safe place is when you are docked to a station). As for the time commitment; you can manage quite well as long as you don't join some null-sec corporation's standing fleet :)

    30. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      Warcraft III had "upkeep", where the more units you created, the more progressive the "tax" on your mines, to slow you down until the bloat of government ground progress to a halt.

      A stunningly realistic simulation.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    31. Re:It's the big problem with space games by khallow · · Score: 1

      In other words, it only works on a very limited scale for a very limited range of problems.

      So what? You just described almost all human tools. At least, we're backpeddling in this thread from the absurd claim that markets don't work at all.

      Hey, I'm happy for Eve's success, but its (checking wiki) 500k subscribers is a small number in the grand scheme of things.

      And why would that be relevant? We do have plenty of examples of bigger markets that work.

      As above, markets only work in limited scale, so I wager he hasn't experienced markets, as most people deal with the larger global economy than whatever local market they have, if any. It's one of the pains of growing up. You realize all the fairy tales and fantasy you see in games don't actually work out in reality.

      I sure hope not. I really don't want to get suicide-ganked in front of the post office. Or anywhere else, now that I think of it.

      And the "limited scale" of markets covers the entirety of humanity.

    32. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      The character is not jailed or perma-killed (barring stupidly not saving off a clone copy with your skills, which would almost never happen for an experienced player) and all their stuff not seized and sold off.

      There is no real downside to griefing, which is part of the problem with more open PvP games. Indeed, the companies rely on casuals to provide fodder for hardcore griefers, going back to Ultima Online.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    33. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      In ancient EverQuest, an evil elf was soloing the Gnome guard at the first juncture outside the Gnome city. This irritated me, so I went and "told" the two main guards at the entrance about it. (I attacked one and trained them past the elf and let them kill me.) Then they wandered back past the elf, who they faction-hated, and, being 2 rather than 1, took care of business.

      After doing this a few times, a GM "warned" me.

      It's at that exact moment I realized I wanted more from these games, something absolutely none has provided in the subsequent two decades. Just boring static spawn points and occasional static circle wanderers.

      Why can't I tell my city's guards to go get this group out there? Not being able to do that so as to provide boring static spaen points is indeed the des8gn flaw, not what I tried to do.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    34. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      I mean, if I was Captain Kirk, I'd have gotten a fucking medal.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    35. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Of course they do, but their ability to troll is more limited.

      I play SWTOR, on a non-PvP server. Outside of very limited areas, you can't do anything to me. You can't damage my stuff, there are no repair bills for PvP, you can't enter my stronghold without permission, I can put you on ignore and we won't play together.

      EVE doesn't have that ability, it only takes a few jerks to spoil the game. You're defending it, perhaps you're one of them? Such a game is naturally going to attract such players of course.

    36. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Those bounties would mean something if they were permanent.

      If you faced permanent death from your stupid behavior, you may be more inclined to be nicer.

      Not everyone of course, after all, you did still have to deal with it in the real world, but you always did have that as a solution.

      EVE just supports people who like to be trolls from the safety of their homes and computers, which is fine I suppose. It is the same type of people who troll forums behind fake names.

      If you really want to show your stuff, dominate in the real world where you have to actually get along with people in civilization and not be a dick.

    37. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Not sure everyone in EVE is bad, but they are there and they can troll the crap out of you if you want and there isn't anything you can really do about it.

      As you say, you can't kill people, as such, they are free to be jerks and trolls. If they could die and death meant the loss of their account, they might change their behavior.

    38. Re:It's the big problem with space games by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      In the Wild West most people wouldn't hunt down an individual that wronged them. They'd report it to the sheriff who would post a wanted poster which would attract bounty hunters to go hunt down the criminal.

      In the Wild West, if you made enough problems, they would send out the fucking Cavalry to hunt your ass down, shoot you a whole bunch, and drag your sorry leaking corpse back to town for a quick exhibit and cheap burial to remind others what lies down that road.

      In the really real world, shipping is protected by threat of military action.

      EVE is a cheesefest because there is insufficient motivation to provide stability.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    39. Re:It's the big problem with space games by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Err WTF, your comparing essentially a "don't touch me bro" server to a PvP one? Where do you get off? You whats cool about non PvP servers? nothing because it is totally BORING. I don't pretend to play online when in effect i want to play a single player game.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    40. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Got it, so you're one of the trolls who likes to gank other players and be a total dillweed in a game because you can't suffer any real conquenses for it.

      Good to know...

    41. Re:It's the big problem with space games by delt0r · · Score: 1

      And that happens in every other game and every other forum on the god dam internet. The shit i hear coming out of 10 year old kids on xbox live makes me blush. /. got plenty of em too
      http://www.penny-arcade.com/co...
      Note that the game in question is not eve. The eve mantra on that is simply not backed up by any data what so ever. It is like complaining people kill you in Quake. Oh what a troll he killed me....

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    42. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      I don't mind dying in PvP warzones in SWTOR, that is what is supposed to happen, but there is no cost to such death.

      Likewise in Quake, there is no cost to death, you just respawn and get back to it.

      In EVE, trolls can cost you time and money, they can chase you around and smash your stuff. There is really no safe place, even hi-sec isn't totally safe, people do sucide gank there.

    43. Re:It's the big problem with space games by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The whole idea of a game is to win, to come out on top. There has to be a way to do that.

      One of the things you have to do to make a game "good" is manage difficulty. It should be possible for the player to win; depending on the difficult level, perhaps even "easy". But a challenge should be available to the player who is looking for it.

      You should have to do realistic sorts of things to succeed in a game, it just shouldn't be as difficult for your character to do it as it would be for you in the really real world. But then, one's character is usually an exceptional person, so it's reasonable that they would have more success than you would.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    44. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What you say has some abstract sense, but keep in mind it's a game. I don't mean that derogatorily ("it's just a game"), but it should be fun.

      So in the model you describe, what happens when one of the numerous trolls starts manipulating things? I'm reminded of how high level characters would camp the tutorial island of WoW and kill quest enemies until paid a bribe to leave the new players alone. The money wasn't even important, it's just trolling.

      In this example, what happens when a level 60 character goes to newbie town and buys all the swords and spikes the price to 1000 gold? Or eliminates all the grain so bakers can't bake. Or does whatever? It would be interesting and serve a certain market, but would it be a "fun game" for "enough people" to be profitable?

    45. Re:It's the big problem with space games by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Show me on the doll where the space ship touched you.....

      Comparing scrabble to quake is stupid. And that is what your doing. Also its a FUCKING video game. It is not real ya know.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    46. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      One of the things you have to do to make a game "good" is manage difficulty. It should be possible for the player to win; depending on the difficult level, perhaps even "easy". But a challenge should be available to the player who is looking for it.

      I agree... however, I would toss out that the average gamer in 2015 is not the same as the average gamer of 1985...

      There is a reason it was called Nintendo Hard... I remember those days and don't miss them one bit...

      A lot of gamers today are really looking for a fun interactive story experience without too much trouble. They want it to "feel" hard without actually "being" hard.

      Not all of course, some people do want a real challenge, I totally support difficulty settings so people can have the insane mode if they want it.

    47. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Defend away... you've shown your true colors as one of THOSE players... :)

      In any case, there is clearly a market for people like you, EVE Online exists and that is fine. You should have a game to keep you happy, I actually don't have a problem with it.

      This is why I don't play EVE, I don't want to take part in that nonsense. If you enjoy it, then carry on.

    48. Re:It's the big problem with space games by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      I don't think the code is anywhere near the hardest part of the endeavor; I'm a pretty mediocre programmer but I can envision that part. The hard part is designing an economy that both works and makes sense, with no cheating. All the money has to go somewhere and do something that makes sense, that's non-trivial. Economists argue over how economics works in the real world as it is.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    49. Re:It's the big problem with space games by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      In this example, what happens when a level 60 character goes to newbie town and buys all the swords and spikes the price to 1000 gold?

      It only works if the game is sufficiently realistic, and they cannot hide the goods from the player base by simply logging out. If those swords have to be carried, transported, and stored somewhere, then that player has now made himself a game objective. Newbie swords are fast and easy to make out of readily available materials, so there's a lot of them in the world and it's difficult to remove them all from the game. If he wants to buy them all, he's got to have a way to transport them. A magical means of transporting them should itself have a cost and perhaps other limitations to make it unattractive. A physical means has its own issues, like now being a target for players and NPCs alike. Assembling a caravan takes time and effort and the criminal underworld will get wind of what you are up to and make plans accordingly.

      As well, someone purchasing all the swords in the region is a noteworthy event. It could be a prelude to war! Where are these weapons going? The authorities are surely going to want to know.

      It would be interesting and serve a certain market, but would it be a "fun game" for "enough people" to be profitable?

      Well, people are paying to play EVE, so I guess the answer is yes.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    50. Re:It's the big problem with space games by znrt · · Score: 1

      I'm not really sure what you mean

      sort of a pun. free markets don't actually exist, it's a fallacy. all
      markets are controlled in subtle (and not so subtle) ways.

      because of that there's no real balance, inequality inevitably grows
      and they need a periodical correction or even 'reset' which is usualy
      a rather violent event. in that sense i say "they don't work", and the
      "invisible hand" idea is just delusion.

      I'm not sure how you can claim that the notion of the invisible hand
      doesn't work in games when there's a particularly good example of it
      working well. I can't think of any game I've played that as an
      entirely AI-driven economy that's come anywhere close to creating the
      same kind of experience you can get from EVE.

      eve's economy is not completely player driven. basic resources are
      always available and affordable regardless of player actions, thus
      speculative behaviour has no effect at all on the system, which is
      closely monitored and corrections introduced as necessary, even
      automatically. as a simulation it's not even a valid metaphor, just a
      spinning wheel with players jumping on an off. every time a player
      quits billions of isk just vanish, but the wheel just keeps
      spinning. probably just a handfull players were there from the start
      and all their actions become even more irrelevant. prices of some
      items go up and down. so what? that's not a model for an economy, it's
      more like an animated aquarium. not that i don't like it, i do play
      eve, but it's just a game.

    51. Re:It's the big problem with space games by znrt · · Score: 1

      Depends what you're trying to do. It works for the developer of Eve, CCP Games. It works for the players who have fun and get goods when and where they need them.

      please feel free to see my other reply: http://games.slashdot.org/comm...

      In fact, I wager you don't have any actual experience with a market since otherwise you wouldn't make such a dumb claim.

      dunno what you mean with "actual experience with a market". if you mean i lack a degree in some pseudoscience then yes.

    52. Re:It's the big problem with space games by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      While there are certain things that are supplied by NPCs in EVE, in practice the economy is completely player driven. NPCs will sell you skillbooks and the like, so speculating on those is usually pointless (NPCs don't sell them *everywhere*, so you can still have player-driven changes in the effective supply - and therefore the cost - in localities where they need to be shipped in and the transports can be attacked). NPC "rats" (pirates) can be killed (usually costing some money for ammo, always costing some time, and with some risk and therefore an amortized cost across the player population for lost ships) for low-grade loot (and occasionally something good), and asteroids can be mined for raw materials, so it's true that speculating on those things would be pointless in most cases (there are *still* local exceptions, like if a hostile fleet is ruthlessly suppressing mining efforts in an area), but only those who can't afford better equip their ships with such things, and the ships themselves must be player-built anyhow.

      There have been major bubbles and crashes in the value of various commodities across EVE's history. There are raw resources which are nearly unavailable outside of certain regions, and the political situations in those regions have huge impacts on prices. People speculate on goods in advance of or during notable events such as wars, new patches (which can influence the demand for certain ships or equipment), or even just to try and corner the market on something that they don't expect a new source to become available.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    53. Re:It's the big problem with space games by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      The advantage of games like EVE (where there are consequences for screwing up besides just wasting some time) is that there's a much stronger drive to succeed, which leads to much more intense competition and a much more satisfactory success / victory. In a typical single-player game, dying (or otherwise failing) costs you nothing but the time to load a save (though permadeath games do exist). In a team game, failure on your part may make your teammates mad at you for wasting everybody's time and not meeting your obligations, but you're still not losing anything but time that could have been spent enjoying a meaningless win. In risk-free PvP, the same is really still true; winning or losing doesn't mean much more than winning a game of Scrabble. In a game like EVE, winning - or even just *surviving* a fight that you can't win - is way more exciting. It's a high, a flood of endorphins. The fights themselves are much more intense, triggering the fight-or-flight instinct, giving you a massive adrenaline rush.

      To look at it another way, the difference is that, in EVE, it's not *just* a game. Nobody says "it's just a game" to a pro player (whether of football or StarCraft) when they lose. To those who play professionally, it's money, and future prospects, and the recognition of large numbers of people... winning or losing becomes a big deal. EVE lets everybody experience that intense, more-than-trivially-meaningful competition... without actually having your livelihood, or even your life, on the line. EVE isn't a casual game, the way a pick-up game of basketball is. It's not designed to appeal to those who "just want to have fun". It's designed for those who want to *win*! It's a game for the competitive, for those who say things like "you never feel more alive then when you're about to die"... and there's precious little else out there for that market.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    54. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      Agreed. One point though is that the price of an input is no determiner as the the price/value of a final product. Price of a final product is a function of supply vs demand. Of course if your final product is worth less than the inputs you will go broke, but that too is reality.

      X3 came close to making it work. Particularly if you played albion prelude and ran a few of the balancing mods. It was far from perfect, but it is the best space one I played.

      The real issue was that you were the only active player in the universe. If a sector had no energy cells the AI would never build a solar station anywhere near it. If there were crystal shortages no one would build crystal mines. In fact if you destroyed a station all that would happen is that a ship would turn up and try to build an identical one in the same spot. It was how you managed to get some of the terran stations which had no wider equivalent. Blow up one of their stations, wait for the cargo ship with the replacement on board to arrive and then capture it.

    55. Re:It's the big problem with space games by Harlequin80 · · Score: 1

      I think the big issues is that to do a true economy is really really really hard. X3 was single threaded and if you had a lot of ships you could bring the whole system to its knees. It was one of the reasons so many were hanging out for X-Rebirth. All people really wanted was a rewrite of the original engine to handle multiple threads so that they could actually run a full economy. Lets not even talk about what we got instead....

      The other challenge is you need other active actors and these are also incredibly hard to do in something like X. It's painful enough watching the AI in civilisation. I can't image how rubbish the AI of X would have been if they had tried to include growing territory or trade empires.

    56. Re:It's the big problem with space games by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Fair enough, that is a point of view that I don't personally share, but can respect.

      When I play games, I personally prefer them to be easy. I work hard in real life and I do want my games to be "its just a game".

      But that's me. So to each their own.

    57. Re: It's the big problem with space games by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you let them spoil your game then you're doing it wrong... Yes its possible to get killed nearly every second, but youself choose what you loose when they do. If yoi cant defend yourself, dont fly anything expensive.

      I've been more of a casual EVE player for severel years now, mainly industrial and solo pvp. I like it especially for the risk thats involved (and the player driven/sometimes badly manipulated economy)

    58. Re:It's the big problem with space games by khallow · · Score: 1

      sort of a pun. free markets don't actually exist, it's a fallacy. all markets are controlled in subtle (and not so subtle) ways.

      No, it's an ideal. And one doesn't have to fully achieve the ideal market in order to reap most of the benefits.

      because of that there's no real balance, inequality inevitably grows and they need a periodical correction or even 'reset' which is usualy a rather violent event. in that sense i say "they don't work", and the "invisible hand" idea is just delusion.

      The thing is, markets both have inherent mechanisms against indefinitely growing wealth inequality and their own periodic corrections. First, there are diminishing returns to higher levels of wealth due to the difficulty of managing it and declining profit margins with higher wealth. Large businesses and mutual funds have run into this before.

      Second, there's the business cycle which routinely disrupts wealth accumulation.

      eve's economy is not completely player driven. basic resources are always available and affordable regardless of player actions, thus speculative behaviour has no effect at all on the system

      Which is incorrect, because of two factors. First, there are other resources than basic resources. And second, for a lot of projects one needs a level of basic resources, far in excess of what one person can easily mine or extract for themselves. The levels of basic resources in the markets are way over what even a large group can comfortably mine in a short period of time. Hence, speculation and market shenanigans can manipulate the system.

      And certain good and products have achieved considerable strategic value, such as "moon goo" (a variety of resources that are required for a whole level of advanced spacecraft and in turn require considerable fixed infrastructure to mine and hence, a strong incentive to hold sections of space) and the construction of capital ships (which are key components of the largest player militaries in the game).

      You know, if you had actually paid attention in Eve Online, you would have noticed that things don't operate like you claim they do.

      but it's just a game

      That's a common excuse for ignoring evidence. But if one chooses not to do that, then one sees common patterns and behavior in markets. And one can't really understand the power of markets until one studies a variety of them, both in the real world and in games.

    59. Re:It's the big problem with space games by khallow · · Score: 1
      And I replied.

      dunno what you mean with "actual experience with a market". if you mean i lack a degree in some pseudoscience then yes.

      No, I mean extensive trading experience. When you assert, as you did in your linked reply that "inequality inevitably grows", then you haven't actually experienced the behaviors of markets that correct for high levels of wealth inequality.

      When you say " they need a periodical correction or even 'reset'", you haven't traded through actual market corrections like recessions.

      When you say "and the "invisible hand" idea is just delusion", then you haven't actually experienced the huge variety of subtle dynamics which make earning a profit through trade so extraordinarily hard or studied large scale behavior of markets.

  2. "Using math to tune a ... economy" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    AKA economics and econometrics. "Least squares" (of whatever kind) is introductory stuff.

    1. Re:"Using math to tune a ... economy" by plover · · Score: 2

      Many big games hire actual economists to design and maintain a workable economy. They tweak things much like the Fed tweaks interest rates, in an attempt to keep the game interesting, and to deal with the occasional bugs that cause rampant inflation.

      --
      John
    2. Re:"Using math to tune a ... economy" by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Many big games hire actual economists to design and maintain a workable economy.

      Which perhaps explains why game economies are crap?

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    3. Re:"Using math to tune a ... economy" by plover · · Score: 1

      Many big games hire actual economists to design and maintain a workable economy.

      Which perhaps explains why game economies are crap?

      Actually, I thought engineers naively applying math formulas to tune a game's economy explained that pretty well. :-)

      Economies are driven by humans making both rational and irrational decisions about the prices of items; with each decision filtered through a unique lens of that buyer's perception of value at that instant. Economists study these activities at a high level, and produce equations that describe 98% of the behavior they see. But they also know that when those remaining 2% of people do something out of the ordinary that changes the game balance, the other 98% rush to copy them and use or abuse that feature. The entire economy quickly suffers as a result. Hiring an actual economist to monitor the game balance can help ensure the prices of items remains usable and fun for both new and experienced players.

      --
      John
  3. Editors by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    why won't you edit?

  4. Well it's a step in the right direction by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    Most games seem to view currency as little more than a control mechanism. Which is why you get games that have 10s of currencies new ones being introduced just for the purpose of obsoleting the old ones.

    1. Re:Well it's a step in the right direction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And that's why we must have central banks - you see what happens without them in the games you describe.

    2. Re:Well it's a step in the right direction by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yep, it annoys me a bit when at the beginning of a game, it costs a gold coin to stay a night at the inn at the beginning of the game, but it costs 100 gold coins at the end of the game in the "end game" areas. Granted, these are not games that are attempting any sort of "serious" world-building like Witcher 3. It still seems lazy, though - they should use other means for removing money from the player.

      I've also thought it somewhat lazy for developers to have a single coin type (typically "gold coins"). I've always thought that designers who resorted to that sort of currency never really understood how incredibly valuable a single gold coin actually is. Common goods are typically highly over-valued, and weapons and armor actually tend to be undervalued. It's ridiculous for a fish to cost 5 gold coins while a sword, even a basic starter sword, might only cost 100. Granted, I think most gamers don't really care about such things, but just once I'd like to see a videogame at least attempt to make a realistic stab at this.

      MMOs (particularly "theme park" types) have a particular problem with their economies, in that goods are essentially created from nothing in limitless supplies, and the final products from crafting last an infinitely long time. As such, they need to figure out how to create viable viable "gold sinks", or ways of removing money from the economy in ways that doesn't irritate the players too much. I've always thought that, no matter the solution they came up with, it always ended up feeling rather artificial (or simply inadequate), and it often ended in a massively inflationary economy.

      I'm still working my way through the first two Witcher games. As soon as I'm ready to play the third, I'll have to take some note of the general economy and see if it ended up as satisfying to play as one hopes.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    3. Re:Well it's a step in the right direction by RogueyWon · · Score: 2

      Most modern MMOs don't have a real economy. EVE Online is a rare exception (and very much a niche proposition). Of the "normal" MMOs, then depending on who you talk to, Final Fantasy XI (released 2002 in Japan, 2003 in the West) or Star Wars Galaxies (2004) was the last to allow any significant degree of player freedom to shape the economy. Everything since World of Warcraft has locked in-game financial transactions down so hard that actual trading between players is knocked right out to the margins.

      What do I mean? Basically, that the items of highest value in most MMOs cannot be obtained through player-production and in-game trading. In a subscription MMO (eg. WoW, Final Fantasy XIV), the most powerful gear will normally be obtained by players through skill-based team challenges (high-end raiding or PvP). Once obtained by a player, it is almost always locked so as to be untradeable to other players. A second tier of good-but-not-best gear is usually available via a pseudo-currency (tokens, honour, whatever) that is rewarded in fixed proportions from performing repetitive activities (daily quests, dungeons etc), often with a cap on how much can be earned in a week, and which can't be traded to other players. Consumable items are still crafted and traded, but the trend in MMOs has been to downplay these over the last few years.

      This has largely come about due to the prevalence of real-money trading; people using real-world money to buy in-game currency. When the companies running MMOs realised that trying to crack down on this trade was like trying to wrestle with fog, some of them shifted their strategy to downplaying the importance of the in-game economy.

      The others, of course, went into the "freemium" pay-to-win model, whereby he who spends the most real-world money has the best stuff.

      What's interesting in the subscription MMOs is how the free market has acted to route-around the ever-tighter economic controls. You might not be able to buy the best gear, but in both WoW and Final Fantasy XIV, you can hire teams of players as "mercenaries" who will run you through the high-end content and guarantee you the items that drop. Blizzard don't like this, Square-Enix turn a blind eye. Various other types of grey-market activity have also sprung up around the margins to allow players to turn either in-game or real-world wealth into an advantage.

    4. Re:Well it's a step in the right direction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's ridiculous for a fish to cost 5 gold coins while a sword, even a basic starter sword, might only cost 100. Granted, I think most gamers don't really care about such things, but just once I'd like to see a videogame at least attempt to make a realistic stab at this.

      It's impossible to make a realistic model of old economy in a video game for a simple reason: the players and their actions are unrealistic.

    5. Re:Well it's a step in the right direction by Talderas · · Score: 1

      What do I mean? Basically, that the items of highest value in most MMOs cannot be obtained through player-production and in-game trading. In a subscription MMO (eg. WoW, Final Fantasy XIV), the most powerful gear will normally be obtained by players through skill-based team challenges (high-end raiding or PvP). Once obtained by a player, it is almost always locked so as to be untradeable to other players. A second tier of good-but-not-best gear is usually available via a pseudo-currency (tokens, honour, whatever) that is rewarded in fixed proportions from performing repetitive activities (daily quests, dungeons etc), often with a cap on how much can be earned in a week, and which can't be traded to other players. Consumable items are still crafted and traded, but the trend in MMOs has been to downplay these over the last few years.

      Crafted gear in FF14 is frequently the best or second best option assuming you have the patience/money to acquire the item and meld it. Crafted accessories are flat out the best option for tanks. The fact that the best gear can't be obtained on a market board shouldn't be particularly distressing in an MMO. That gear is the way to let people know that you are able to clear the toughest content in the game.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    6. Re:Well it's a step in the right direction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think that Path of Exile; does currencies well. It is in essence a barter system; where you can convert the currency item into another higher value currency item, or use it to improve an item. The currency having dual role takes care of the inflation; quite nicely.

  5. Bad Example by Carewolf · · Score: 3, Informative

    The economy is one of the very few real weak points of Witcher 3. The article doesn't explain in detail what he did, but whatever it was: Don't do that, unless you have an otherwise master-class game to outweigh your mistake.

    1. Re:Bad Example by crashumbc · · Score: 3, Informative

      Yeah, I felt the the economy is witcher 3 one of the few bad points of the game

      Witcher 3's "economy" basically consisted of kill shit, get extreme amount of loot, sell loot, have thousands of needed coins at end of game....

    2. Re:Bad Example by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let me say first I fucking love Witcher 3!
      The annoying I find is I sell all the stuff I've accumulated to the various merchants until they run out of money, but they never seem to sell any of it. They just end up with about 100 swords and bits of armor in stock and no money for the remainder of the game.
      But who gives a shit. I fucking love that game.

    3. Re:Bad Example by Lanforod · · Score: 1

      So essentially, about exactly the same as Witcher 2. Shrug.

  6. Garbage by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Making items to expensive

    Like dictionaries?

    mathematical statistics

    Glad you cleared that up. I'm sure many people were labouring under the illusion that it was the underwater basket weaving type.

    Seriously, who lets this shite in?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    1. Re:Garbage by wardrich86 · · Score: 1

      The cherry-topper was the "(pictured below)" part with no link to the picture anywhere below it.

      Gret grammer. Awsum spelling. 11/10 - wood reed agen.

    2. Re:Garbage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go to the Firehose http://slashdot.org/firehose.s...

      Tag stories with spelling and grammar errors

      Also it should be noted that there IS a specific application of statistics for the purpose of economic analysis and it IS called mathematical statistics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      me am go now

  7. Economics 101 by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

    I'm missing something here. Why not let the economic system adjust itself, just like in the real world? Establish a marketplace, let people bid on selling and buying prices, and automatically set the value based on accepted bids -- just like the stock market. Values automatically track up and down based on supply and demand... am I oversimplifying the problem, or is the original article overcomplicating it?

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    1. Re:Economics 101 by JustNiz · · Score: 1

      err... because its not multiplayer?

    2. Re:Economics 101 by Lanforod · · Score: 1

      You could program virtual merchants to buy as well, I guess... A lot of work though.

  8. Huh? by maitai · · Score: 1

    I don't get what an "economy" has to do with this. It's a single player game and just how they calculated item costs. And that's it... nothing new and sure as heck not an economy. You'll note tons of games, multiplayer or not have static prices for items and this sounds like just another way of calculating those prices. It's not an economy.

    1. Re:Huh? by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 1

      A single-player game just needs to *simulate* an economy, meaning that you need to ensure there isn't some loophole that allows the player to gain an infinite amount of loot through some simple, expedient task. In a real economy, prices are adjusted according to supply and demand, of course. It's a natural feedback mechanism that ensures such "loopholes" are very short-lived.

      So, the question becomes "how do you set prices so that it *appears* a real economy is at work, rather than just a designer arbitrarily setting prices?" It's not as simple a problem as it sounds like, and it's a real-world problem that does, in fact, need solving. Don't get hung up on whether an economy is "real" or not in a videogame. In a single-player game, you don't question whether the AI is really thinking something profound, right? The issue is how to create the most convincing illusion of a real, living world, while still ensuring the game is challenging enough and enjoyable for the players.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
  9. The resultant curve (pictured below) by manu0601 · · Score: 1

    The resultant curve (pictured below)

    Where is it?

  10. Meth by mjwx · · Score: 1

    I originally read the headline as "Using Meth to Tune Videogames" and thought that explains a lot.

    --
    Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
  11. What the fuck else are you going to use? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bird entrails?

  12. Oh noes, not MATH?! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

    Wait a minute here. Is there an editor so clueless that they thought the notion of a game developer "using math" is headline-worthy? What's next, a story about how "programmers" are "using math"?

    I'll bet they used "physics" and even "engineering" too!

    What the hell?

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
    1. Re:Oh noes, not MATH?! by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 2

      As a professional videogame programmer, I can assure you that it's fairly newsworthy when a game designer uses math to solve problems like these.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    2. Re:Oh noes, not MATH?! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      As a professional videogame programmer, I can assure you that it's fairly newsworthy when a game designer uses math to solve problems like these.

      There's more math in the corniest Free2Play game than there is in Witcher 3.

      As a professional videogame programmer, I'm guessing you've heard of Eve Online. I'm just guessing here, because I'm not a professional videogame programmer, but I'll just bet they used a little math in the same way. Over a decade ago.

      Anyway, my point was that I would have thought Slashdot readers would be beyond getting all excited when someone is discovered to be "using math". In programming an economy-simulator.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    3. Re:Oh noes, not MATH?! by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 3, Informative

      I'm exaggerating a bit, as I was going for a humorous remark. So, killing the joke dead and answering your question seriously, yes, I've heard of Eve Online, and know quite a bit about it, but haven't played it. In terms of economies and designer math skills, MMOs are a slight exception. They take their in-game economies very seriously, and some are known to hire actual economists to help guide their virtual trade and monetary policies.

      Designers don't necessarily avoid math, but they often use it in ways that drives programmers insane. For instance, they'll use formulas in spreadsheets to calculate tables of figures for loot, armor, damage, etc, and then painstakingly enter all those figures by hand. Why? This allows them the freedom to individually tweak components as desired. Programmers look at this and shake their heads, because we're hardwired to avoid that sort of redundancy whenever possible. For whatever reasons, some designers seem to revel in it.

      Many designers tend to be control freaks. They're deathly afraid of automatic, feedback driven, or chaotic systems (all of which could apply to an economy), and often for good reason, as some outlier condition could tend to cause autonomous systems to spiral out of control. This is why most MMO in-world "economies" are tightly controlled affairs, with lots of limiters to prevent things from going too far in any particular direction too quickly. Programmers are always suggesting ways to create automatic and chaotic environments driven by algorithms, but designers want carefully scripted and planned systems, because they want to control and tweak it.

      From the description, it appears this designer only turned to math as a last resort, because there was simply no time to do the sort of hand-tweaking that designers typically do. They were impressed enough with the results (gosh, math actually works!) that they wrote about how they did it. And the programmers on the team are probably thinking "I told you so. In fact, I told you so years ago, and you only listened to me when your back was up against a wall."

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
  13. erm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's a single player game, economy is irrelevant.

  14. Economy mismanagement is a huge risk for MMOs by azaris · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Magic Online, the digital version of the famous trading card game, is currently undergoing a kind of "economic recession". Basically, trading for cards is facilitated by event tickets (roughly $1 in value) and booster packs (containing 15 cards, roughly $4 in nominal value) that act as a digital currency. Events are entered using event tickets as payment and they pay out as booster packs to the most winning players. This is done to avoid gambling laws.

    What has happened is that number of players entering events has gone down while the amount of booster packs floating around has increased, so that the going price for booster packs has fallen to around 2 tickets (so $2 equivalent). This has made entering events unattractive for all but the top players, since the expected value of the prizes to win are now half of what they should be, while the entry fees remain the same. This further drove the number of players down, with many people selling their collections and leaving Magic Online.

    Several months ago Wizards of the Coast set up an "economy strike force" that supposedly consisted of several people with "advanced math degrees" to solve this conundrum of a depressed economy. They finally announced their "solution" some weeks ago. It was to double the entry fees and basically cut the prizes to 75% of the old one.

    The economy predictable tanked even harder, leading to more players selling out.

    1. Re:Economy mismanagement is a huge risk for MMOs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They also created another currency that could not be exchanged with other players. That leads to less purchasing power.

    2. Re:Economy mismanagement is a huge risk for MMOs by Thelasko · · Score: 1

      Magic Online, the digital version of the famous trading card game, is currently undergoing a kind of "economic recession".

      I find this ironic as NPR recently praised the MTG team for their economic skills.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    3. Re:Economy mismanagement is a huge risk for MMOs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The economy predictable tanked even harder, leading to more players selling out.

      "Doesn't matter; made fat stacks of cash selling worthless pieces of paper to neckbeards." -WotC