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Paris Climate Change Talks Yield First Draft (theguardian.com)

An anonymous reader writes: Negotiators at the UN climate talks in Paris released a draft of an agreement to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. No part of the draft has been finalized as many points remain in contention, particularly between developing countries and more wealthy nations. Laurence Tubiana, the French envoy for the talks, said: "We could have been better, we could have been worse. The job is not done, we need to apply all intelligence, energy, willingness to compromise and all efforts to come to agreement. Nothing is decided until everything is decided."

138 comments

  1. Where's the link to the draft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The article says they released a draft.
    There's nothing new to comment on without it.

    1. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by MightyDrunken · · Score: 5, Informative

      The draft and addendum .

    2. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by MrKaos · · Score: 1

      Absolutely. All too often when one of these stories pop up they don't have a link to the original document up for discussion.

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    3. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by NotDrWho · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm too lazy to read it, but does it even MENTION nuclear power? Because any climate change plan that doesn't include nuclear as a major component of a carbon-neutral energy policy isn't worth using as toilet paper.

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    4. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by ComputerGeek01 · · Score: 0

      I can see where the addition of the draft papers, and therefore more material to read, matters on /. where discussion is done by civilized and informed people who just finished reading the article on hand.

    5. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, i don't know if that's a loss. I tried reading that draft, but it's soo god damn boring i couldn't read one full sentence.

    6. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

      I'm too lazy to read it, but does it even MENTION nuclear power? Because any climate change plan that doesn't include nuclear as a major component of a carbon-neutral energy policy isn't worth using as toilet paper.

      Why are you so sure of that? Was it mentioned in another paper that you also didn't bother to read? That's the kind of informative discussion we need around here!

    7. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      I believe that draft has found it's way over Minnesota and currently explains the unseasonably warm weather. With that much hot air could anyone expect any different?

      --
      Time to offend someone
    8. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      No, it doesn't. It doesn't mention much in the way of specifics -- probably for the best, since specifying technologies from the outset is a wrong-headed way to do engineering.

      The main message is: "here's where we want to be [low-carbon future, equity, etc.], and here are some committees and bodies we're going to form to report on everyone's progress."

    9. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by NotDrWho · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I actually did take the time to look at it, and nope, no nuclear. Just a bunch of vague pie-in-the-sky bullshit. No real practical solutions, just repeating that man-made climate is bad and we must do something about it (the "something" being unspecified). Just some meaningless bullshit for countries that will affirm it wholeheartedly, but actually *do* fuck all.

      Be it resolved that bad things are bad and good things are good.

      Nothing to see here. Move along.

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    10. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      We must do something about this crisis IMMEDIATELY! Let us form a committee to appoint a committee to decide how to decide what to do about this!

    11. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 1

      I actually did take the time to look at it, and nope, no nuclear. Just a bunch of vague pie-in-the-sky bullshit. No real practical solutions, just repeating that man-made climate is bad and we must do something about it (the "something" being unspecified).

      That's actually a good capitalistic approach. Set a goal, and let the market figure out how to achieve it most economically. Why would you prescribe a particular mechanism?

      Of course, in my not-so-uninformed opinion, a nuclear industry wouldn't even exist if not for government-sponsored research and development projects, government-sponsored insurance, and the promise of government-sponsored nuclear waste disposal (not that we have any good final disposal sites, anywhere on the world), because the free market would not bear the costs. Indeed, in Germany the energy companies now try to spin off their nuclear "assets", because they know that the reserves accumulated for decommissioning the plants are unlikely to be sufficient.

      --

      Stephan

    12. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by NotInHere · · Score: 1

      Microsoft Word

      MS Office? I was unsure before, but now I know that we are doomed.

    13. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      That's actually a good capitalistic approach. Set a goal, and let the market figure out how to achieve it most economically. Why would you prescribe a particular mechanism?

      That would be fine if they actually did that, for example a global cap and trade system would be a market based approach. Instead, they're just going to make vague statements of disapproval and wander off.

    14. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's filed under, Doesn't Make a Damned Bit of Difference because Obama won't submit it as a treaty.

      No treaty, no force of law.

    15. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      nooclear power is BAAD, m'ok?

    16. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      That's actually a good capitalistic approach. ... Of course, in my not-so-uninformed opinion, a nuclear industry wouldn't even exist if not for government-sponsored X,Y &Z.

      So are you advocating a market based approach or a government sponsored approach? We can combine both, or course. It is the outcome, after all, that counts. Is your adherence to free-market purity such that you could not conscience any government sponsorship in reducing carbon emissions?

      Whether or not nuclear energy requires additional government stimulus, it's an important, (some would argue necessary) source alongside other non-carbon energy sources. I do wonder though, if coal, gas and oil were priced entirely eliminated from the equation, how the cost of nuclear would look.

      For those looking to proven real-world solutions, the example of Ontario, (Niedersachsen, even if its local requirements might be met by wind, still burns coal) shows that we can eliminate the burning of coal using a mix of today's technology.

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    17. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 1

      That's actually a good capitalistic approach. ... Of course, in my not-so-uninformed opinion, a nuclear industry wouldn't even exist if not for government-sponsored X,Y &Z.

      So are you advocating a market based approach or a government sponsored approach? We can combine both, or course. It is the outcome, after all, that counts. Is your adherence to free-market purity such that you could not conscience any government sponsorship in reducing carbon emissions?

      I believe a market is a good tool to optimise resource allocation under given constraints. Ideally, we (via our government) would set the constraints and let the market find the solution. However, we don't have perfect markets. LLCs and stock companies (and death, indeed ;-) allow owners to go for short term profit and ignore long term consequences. Also, we have principal-agent problems. So I see some arguments for government regulation, and also for government intervention to curb nervous overreactions of the marktet.

      I prefer setting realistic costs for natural resource usage, if via cap-and-trade or via fossil fuel taxes, to direct subsidies. If we let government pick winners, we will see more lobbying, and more pork going to experts in lobbying, not to experts in clean energy production.

      I'm very doubtful about nuclear for a number of reasons, but in particular because I don't see it scale out. Maybe nuclear power plants can be safely operated by modern first-world countries (maybe not). But do you really want to see Nigeria, Burma, Iran, Somalia, Colombia, Iran, North Korea and the Principality of Sealand build breeder plants? I would definitely prefer a technology that is less risky and less centralised.

      --

      Stephan

    18. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      I would definitely prefer a technology that is less risky and less centralised.

      Who wouldn't? But risk management always involves trading off relative risks. One's attitude to the risks of nuclear energy should to be informed by the risks of human induced global warming. If Germany can deliver a 40% emissions cut by 2020 while carrying out a government mandated phase-out of nuclear power (and bearing in mind that in 2010 nuclear accounted for around 22% of Germany's grid), how much more could be achieved if nuclear were permitted to remain in the mix? As Fukushima shows, the damage wrought even by such a black-swan event is negligible in the face of the damage global warming can be expected to wreak.

      I prefer setting realistic costs for natural resource usage, if via cap-and-trade or via fossil fuel taxes, to direct subsidies. If we let government pick winners ...

      Quite.

      Maybe nuclear power plants can be safely operated by modern first-world countries (maybe not). But do you really want to see Nigeria, Burma, Iran, Somalia, Colombia, Iran, North Korea and the Principality of Sealand [wikipedia.org] build breeder plants?

      That does not seem the most persuasive argument in favour of 1st world countries shutting down their plants (potentially off-shoring them to poorer neighbours).

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    19. Re:Where's the link to the draft? by Blaskowicz · · Score: 1

      The logical conclusion is that nuclear reactors and plants have to be owned, insured and operated by the State (which I've capitalized on purpose haha, but well any company or agency gets a capital letter too.)

      There is not even any incompatibility with capitalism : about any country on Earth has a plural economy that involves the State or government, free markets and companies of varied size and kind, public agencies, panhandlers, self-employed individuals, employees, black market labor, crime, non-profits and even tasks like house keeping and gardening, and gifts.

      Capitalistic approaches are likely to be needed and welcome : "cost reduction" is what real environmentalism should be about (e.g. spending $30k instead of $20k on a car is "green" according to the general media, but spending $500 on a bicycle is greener still. Guess which is cheaper)
      The ideological rigidity that poses a threat is that in the camp of deregulate everything, privatize everything, free trade everything. "Freedom" indeed.

  2. gas emissions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    > Negotiators at the UN climate talks in Paris released a draft of an agreement to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions

    emitted by pontificating politicians.

  3. Wealthy nations? Where by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What wealthy nations? All western governments are deep in debt..

    1. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Surely you understand that the wealth of an entire nation does not really depend on whether the government of that nation is in debt, right?

    2. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by jonnythan · · Score: 1

      They aren't *in* debt, they *have* debt. There's quite a difference.

    3. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      What wealthy nations?

      There are no 'nations'. Maybe they mean the banks and financial markets. That's where all our money is sequestered.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    4. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nations that have debt have no wealth. (It would be stupid to have both debt and wealth and not cancel one out because debt costs interest.)

    5. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by jonnythan · · Score: 1

      And investments gain interest. Are you 12?

    6. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by khallow · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Nations that have debt have no wealth.

      No, it doesn't work that way. While it is worth noting that there is a staggering amount of irresponsible and stupid borrowing at the level of the state, they are able to get away with that because of the wealth of the societies they represent and which they can tap. Even a country like Greece has considerable wealth left. And if they were to reform their governments and societies, that wealth would come forth.

    7. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by tompaulco · · Score: 4, Interesting

      What wealthy nations? All western governments are deep in debt..

      One man is on the street and has nothing.
      Another man lives in a house with a mortgage with negative equity and drives a car in which he is upside down on the loan.
      Which one is poorer?
      I'm not making a point, I think it is a legitimate question and the answer is not an easy one. But it certainly is relatable to nations and debt.

      --
      If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
    8. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      Which you failed to even try to explain.

    9. Re:Wealthy nations? Where by jonnythan · · Score: 1

      I've always been sad they don't teach personal finance in high school.

      This is why.

  4. looking up own worst enemy on alphabet.com by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    who else could we be? truth + mercy + justice,, in the moms we trust..

  5. Sure they agreed... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    just like China agreed to stop cyber warfare on the US but last week a military company TACOM my family works for was fully breached by them.

  6. "Willingness to compromise" is just code ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    for having no principles when they conflict with profits.

  7. They have a ways to go by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/adp2/eng/8infnot.pdf

    Article 3 section 1 looks like a multiple choice menu than an agreement.

    Parties aim to reach by [X date]
    [a peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions]
    [zero net greenhouse gasemissions]
    [a[n] X per cent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions]
    [global low-carbon transformation]
    [globallow-emission transformation]
    [carbon neutrality]
    [climate neutrality].

  8. where is the secret appendix? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I want to know where the secret appendix to this treaty is. 95% of treaties these days are about trying to give a deep dicking to the average joe.

  9. real work got done! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yay. They made a report. That should mark a significant shift in how we do things.

  10. meh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    China is the major polluter today. Let's see them give an inch. Basically, we shut down ours so that they can increase production.

    1. Re:meh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think your opinion is based on outdated numbers. China is leading when it comes to renewable sources in 2015.

      In contrary to 'the west', the Chinese understood very well that renewable energy is both free energy after the initial investment, and independent energy. They don't want their economy depend on something as fluctuating oil prices.

      You will see that China invested more in renewables in 2015 than either Europe or USA, and almost as much as Europe and USA together. So roughly speaking, at least per capital they are doing equivalent as in the west. And the average person in China is by far not as rich, so in proportion of it's economy it's even a lot more.

    2. Re:meh by Nidi62 · · Score: 1

      I think your opinion is based on outdated numbers. China is leading when it comes to renewable sources in 2015.

      Except when they had to limit automobile traffic in Beijing leading up to the Olympics so that the air would actually be safe to breathe, or how China just issued a smog red alert for Beijing for the next 3 days, forcing schools to close and construction to halt. The pictures in the linked article make an LA summer look as clear and clean as the Swiss Alps.

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    3. Re:meh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lies. The numbers "invested" don't mean anything. They are just numbers put out of bureaucrats. What matters is real renewable deployments. The big, bad US leads in renewables by a large margin.

  11. It won't please anyone and it won't work by NotDrWho · · Score: 2

    The environmentalists are going to complain it doesn't go far enough and the politicians in all of the countries that matter are just going to ignore it or cheat it.

    --
    SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    1. Re:It won't please anyone and it won't work by burtosis · · Score: 1

      More importantly the cost now, and possible costs in the future necessitate unbiased and well funded research niether of which is happening to the extent it probably should.

      We could really use more capable satalletes, better land and sea based data acquisition, and other hardware. Similarily we could use more research as the problem is quite difficult and the cutting edge today is determining what will happen regionally; this is something we need if we are to prevent resource wars likely to happen no matter the actual cause of warming.

    2. Re:It won't please anyone and it won't work by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

      But they had a nice vacation in Paris, traveling by private jet, not the least bit ironic

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    3. Re:It won't please anyone and it won't work by XxtraLarGe · · Score: 2

      The environmentalists are going to complain it doesn't go far enough and the politicians in all of the countries that matter are just going to ignore it or cheat it.

      You're mistaken. The main goal of this treaty is to stop TERRORISM, because you know, global warming caused the Paris attack. Feel the Burn!

      --
      Taking guns away from the 99% gives the 1% 100% of the power.
    4. Re:It won't please anyone and it won't work by tbannist · · Score: 0

      Did you ever stop to think that maybe he's right? That the regional disruptions caused by a rapidly changing environment combined with unsuccessful integration of migrants into their adoptive societies might actual fuel the despair and hatred that allows some people to turn on their neighbours and murder them for stupid ideological reasons?

      Have you ever thought that it could be more complicated than "evil people do evil things, and if we just kill all the evil people, then we win"?

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    5. Re:It won't please anyone and it won't work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did you ever stop to think that maybe he's right? ...

      Is that based on the "He's gotta be right EVENTUALLY!" theory?

      You are aware the "Malik" is Arabic for "Michael", as in "Archangel of God"? And has connotations of "King" in Arabic as well? Such that it's a MALE name?

      Are you also aware that "Tashfeen Malik" is the shortened version of "Tashfeen Malik Al-Muahideen", the nom de guerre of a rather famous jihadi? Who had the added accomplishment of being known as "Conqueror of the West"?

      Do you still think Obama's "right" about terrorism? You know, ISIS is "contained"? Even though his bureaucracy let in someone under a jihadi fake name, who went to a jihadi madrassa terror school in Pakistan?

      Or maybe you're gullible. And still think you'll be able to "keep your doctor" and "keep your (medical insurance) plan". Because you liked them.

      Sorry, I don't believe proven liars.

    6. Re:It won't please anyone and it won't work by XxtraLarGe · · Score: 1

      Did you ever stop to think that maybe he's right? That the regional disruptions caused by a rapidly changing environment combined with unsuccessful integration of migrants into their adoptive societies might actual fuel the despair and hatred that allows some people to turn on their neighbours and murder them for stupid ideological reasons?

      Have you ever thought that it could be more complicated than "evil people do evil things, and if we just kill all the evil people, then we win"?

      This explanation conveniently ignores all of the U.S.'s repeated interference in the area. But that doesn't fit the left's narrative *now*, since their guy is the one dropping the bombs, so move on to the next big issue on the agenda. Terrorist attacks on US soil are labeled gun violence because of work disputes, just like they did with the Ft. Hood shooter. Don't address the problem, redefine it.

      --
      Taking guns away from the 99% gives the 1% 100% of the power.
    7. Re:It won't please anyone and it won't work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You mean propping up the rich middle eastern oil leaders by buying oil at the pump, who then oppress their people with expensive foreign made weapons? Oil that happens to be part of the climate emission problems too?

  12. Baby steps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At least the US and China are on board, or the US is until a GOP President is elected. Murdoch's media empire refuses to acknowledge climate change as a threat to mankind, so none of their Presidential candidates will either.

    1. Re:Baby steps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      China is only on-board because they don't actually have to reduce any of their emissions.

  13. Why do "wealthy" nations have to help the others? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    You can argue that the western Industrial Revolution kicked off the CO2 rise, but these days with static or negative population growth the 'wealthy' or 'developed' nations aren't the problem; it's the 3rd world shitholes like India, China, and places in Africa where they have zero environmental regulations and/or burn firewood that are messing things up now.

    Aren't we done with White Man's Burden?

  14. The TL;DR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Here's the tl;dr of the draft:

    All of the cuts must come from wealthy, majority-white countries.

    China, India, Africa, and South America are all totally and completely exempt from any rules and may emit as much greenhouse gas as they wish.

  15. How many times does "contribution" appear? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    How many times does the word "contribution" appear in the document?

    It's a shakedown. That's a huge issue with the UN's "one nation, one vote". Smaller nations will vote to take from larger nations.

    1. Re:How many times does "contribution" appear? by Foobar+of+Borg · · Score: 1

      How many times does the word "contribution" appear in the document?

      It's a shakedown. That's a huge issue with the UN's "one nation, one vote". Smaller nations will vote to take from larger nations.

      How many times have the larger nations taken from the smaller nations? How much shit are they having to put up with now because of the larger nations' pollution? Or, should they have to foot the bill to clean up a mess they didn't make, just because it wafted into their borders?

    2. Re:How many times does "contribution" appear? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How many times does the word "contribution" appear in the document?

      It's a shakedown. That's a huge issue with the UN's "one nation, one vote". Smaller nations will vote to take from larger nations.

      How many times have the larger nations taken from the smaller nations? How much shit are they having to put up with now because of the larger nations' pollution? Or, should they have to foot the bill to clean up a mess they didn't make, just because it wafted into their borders?

      So past behavior is justification for taking what you can from someone who has something you want? Because that's what you're advocating.

      Or maybe the First World could leave Africa to its Mugabes. Like that better?

    3. Re:How many times does "contribution" appear? by Foobar+of+Borg · · Score: 1

      How many times does the word "contribution" appear in the document?

      It's a shakedown. That's a huge issue with the UN's "one nation, one vote". Smaller nations will vote to take from larger nations.

      How many times have the larger nations taken from the smaller nations? How much shit are they having to put up with now because of the larger nations' pollution? Or, should they have to foot the bill to clean up a mess they didn't make, just because it wafted into their borders?

      So past behavior is justification for taking what you can from someone who has something you want? Because that's what you're advocating.

      Or maybe the First World could leave Africa to its Mugabes. Like that better?

      So, what we are doing right now polluting is the past? I'm not simply talking about 19th century colonialism, or even our support of brutal dictators in the mid- to late-20th century just so we could get what we want. I'm talking about stuff going on right now. How about we actually help clean up the shit we've dumped everywhere? But, I'm sure you'll disagree with that, too. It's clear that you are firmly in the "I've got mine, so fuck everyone else!" camp.

  16. Too lazy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > I'm too lazy to read it, but does it even MENTION nuclear power?

    Yeah, right. That's because you're not paid for that, you're only paid for shilling nuclear here.

    1. Re:Too lazy by NotDrWho · · Score: 1

      "Shilling nuclear"?!?

      Were you born a fucking an obtuse moron, or did you parents have to teach you?

      --
      SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
    2. Re:Too lazy by tompaulco · · Score: 2

      > I'm too lazy to read it, but does it even MENTION nuclear power?

      Yeah, right. That's because you're not paid for that, you're only paid for shilling nuclear here.

      If shilling nuclear on slashdot is a paid job, I want to know where I can sign up.

      --
      If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
    3. Re:Too lazy by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      Don't get too excited. Slashdot's collective IQ has dropped so low that a large portion of people legitimately think the definition of a shill is "Someone who disagrees with me".

    4. Re:Too lazy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't get too excited. Slashdot's collective IQ has dropped so low that a large portion of people legitimately think the definition of a shill is "Someone who disagrees with me".

      You mean the IQ has dropped to the single digits? The millennials have pretty much gutted /. :(

  17. Re:Why do "wealthy" nations have to help the other by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The West in 1800 was also a shithole without environmental regulations. It managed to get wealthy and reach static population growth by burning coal and oil. India, China and Africa on on track to follow the same path. The problem is that we *don't* want them to follow the same path. That's why they need help.

  18. still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 3, Insightful
    I see this in the draft:

    To hold the increase in the global average temperature [below 1.5 ÂC] [or] [well below 2 ÂC] above preindustrial levels by ensuring deep reductions in global greenhouse gas [net] emissions; (

    They are still emphasizing an extreme effort rather than a rational one. There are three obvious rebuttals to this. First, too many parties simply don't have an interest in this. For example, most oil subsidies come from countries whose economies have a significant dependence on exporting oil. Other large fossil fuel-consuming nations, particularly, the US, China, and India have long expressed disinterest in such levels of reduction.

    Second, humanity doesn't generate greenhouse gases arbitrarily. Instead it is in pursuit of other priorities. From past missteps, I see strong indications that any serious attempt to meet the requirements of an extreme mitigation effort will result in a global-scale mess.

    Third, we still don't have actual evidence that there is a serious problem. We just have, yet again, strongly worded assertions. It really should be a warning sign to everyone when the people pushing this aggressive strategy can't back their claims with facts.

    1. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      tl;dr version

      1: Polluting nations don't want to reduce pollution and they are powerful so we can't make them

      2: If we try to reduce pollution it will cause other problems.

      3: Not enough evidence that Global Warming is a serious problem.

      Honestly the defeatism and lack of ambition is disheartening. There is plenty of evidence going back decades now that global warming is a serious issue. It is hard to address but to not even try is a serious dereliction of duty to our descendants. Is this a paid shill?

    2. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by hort_wort · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Third, we still don't have actual evidence that there is a serious problem. We just have, yet again, strongly worded assertions. It really should be a warning sign to everyone when the people pushing this aggressive strategy can't back their claims with facts.

      That's the real tough part about it... By the time we know for sure what will happen, it'd be too late. The risk is just SO HIGH that most scientists recommend playing it safe. Humanity could have a tough time surviving if we get into the "runaway climate change" scenario. Will that happen if the global temperature goes up 1 degree C? 10?

      Aside from all that though, poison ivy grows faster with more CO2. Eeks. Just another reason to stay in my basement.

    3. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      That's the real tough part about it... By the time we know for sure what will happen, it'd be too late. The risk is just SO HIGH that most scientists recommend playing it safe. Humanity could have a tough time surviving if we get into the "runaway climate change" scenario. Will that happen if the global temperature goes up 1 degree C? 10?

      We don't know what will happen, but we're somehow supernaturally confident it'll be too late to do anything about it. Doesn't sound like a reason for urgency to me. Instead, sounds like a huge argument for doing nothing except the status quo, which is already an extremely beneficial thing for humanity.

      Actual evidence would make selling climate change a whole lot easier.

    4. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Honestly the defeatism and lack of ambition is disheartening.

      Good. Are you going to worry about real problems now?

      There is plenty of evidence going back decades now that global warming is a serious issue.

      Good. Show the seriousness of the problem then. It's worth noting here that no one has yet shown that global warming has short term consequences or that it is an urgent problem. They have merely asserted these things.

      It is hard to address but to not even try is a serious dereliction of duty to our descendants. Is this a paid shill?

      Because you have yet to show that the extreme mitigation measures proposed are less of a dereliction of duty than doing absolutely nothing is. Remember current mitigation efforts are already remarkably ineffective and costly. We are already doing this and it is already a net loss for our descendants.

      But sure, I must be a shill.

    5. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      Actual evidence would make selling climate change mitigation a whole lot easier.

      FIFM. I already grant that there is some degree of global warming. I don't grant that it is a serious enough problem that we need to impoverish people and societies for it (especially given the counterproductive effects of poverty such as higher population growth and disinterest in environmental affairs).

    6. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by hort_wort · · Score: 0

      We don't know what will happen, but we're somehow supernaturally confident it'll be too late to do anything about it. Doesn't sound like a reason for urgency to me.

      Suppose 97% of your military commanders came forward and told you they believed that a country would invade. They show you satellite images of how the enemy forces are building up. They can't tell you for sure what would happen. The infrastructure, economy, and way of life could be entirely ruined. The country may never recover. Or maybe the invaders will just walk through and not do a thing.

      Let's assume you have a VERY small military, just a token gesture really to make your citizens happy. Would you want the country to:

      a) Decrease defense spending.
      b) Maintain defense spending.
      c) Increase defense spending.

    7. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The goal of keeping the rise below 2C is based on scientific evidence, the interpretation of which is widely accepted, that suggests any more than 2C will cause problems so severe we really don't want to go there. To suggest otherwise is just burying your head in the sand.

      I really don't understand the objections to this goal. Even if you are absolutely convinced that there is no climate change, or that it is natural and unavoidable, or that nothing bad will happen or whatever, it's still worth cleaning up the environment. Clearly Beijing has a smog problem, and clearly LA did have one and was able to fix it in a way that ultimately saved money and improved everyone's lives.

      It's undeniable that developing nations want to pollute as much as we did in the past, and that pollution will affect us as well. Doesn't it therefore seem worth trying to do some deals that push those countries towards clean energy, with help from developed nations to make it happen as quickly as possible.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    8. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by tbannist · · Score: 1

      We don't know what will happen, but we're somehow supernaturally confident it'll be too late to do anything about it. Doesn't sound like a reason for urgency to me. Instead, sounds like a huge argument for doing nothing except the status quo, which is already an extremely beneficial thing for humanity.

      The fool says "We don't know it's a cliff, so I'm not going to stop until after I jump over it."

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    9. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by CaptainLard · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Second, humanity doesn't generate greenhouse gases arbitrarily. Instead it is in pursuit of other priorities.

      Care to provide examples of some non-arbitrary "other priorities"? Continued existence for the sake of existence surely meets some definition of arbitrary.

      As for evidence howsabout the following:

      - Green house effect. Easily demonstrated in a closed car parked in the sun. Check
      - CO2 is a green house gas. Surface of venus is hotter than the surface of mercury. Check
      - Warmer oceans mean stronger storms. Check
      - Warmer poles means melting land ice. Check
      - 40% of all humans live within 100km of an ocean....

      Arguing time frame is rearranging the deck chairs. If anyone cares about society as is, the sooner we reduce CO2 emissions, the better.

    10. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Nidi62 · · Score: 1

      Just another reason to stay in my basement.

      Just remember your basement will be the first place in your house to flood when the sea levels rise. Of course, it will also stay the coolest as temperatures rise. So at least you won't be sweating when you drown.

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    11. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by james_shoemaker · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Arguing time frame is rearranging the deck chairs. If anyone cares about society as is, the sooner we reduce CO2 emissions, the better"

            So how are YOU reducing your CO2 emissions since you have decided it's such an important thing to do.

    12. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by slew · · Score: 1

      We don't know what will happen, but we're somehow supernaturally confident it'll be too late to do anything about it. Doesn't sound like a reason for urgency to me.

      Suppose 97% of your military commanders came forward and told you they believed that a country would invade. They show you satellite images of how the enemy forces are building up. They can't tell you for sure what would happen. The infrastructure, economy, and way of life could be entirely ruined. The country may never recover. Or maybe the invaders will just walk through and not do a thing.

      Let's assume you have a VERY small military, just a token gesture really to make your citizens happy. Would you want the country to:

      a) Decrease defense spending.
      b) Maintain defense spending.
      c) Increase defense spending.

      Of course maintain or even decrease defense spending!

      We have satellite images showing China, ISIS (and maybe even Russia) building up enemy forces in the South China sea, Syria/Iraq, and Ukraine. We don't know for sure what would happen. The infrastructure, economy, and way of life of millions can be entirely ruined. The countries may never recover. Or maybe the invaders will just walk through and not do a thing.

      And we are decreasing defense spending. From a peak spending in 2011 of $705B, we a projecting under $600B for 2015 and holding steady...

      Just as Obama has promised, we are trending the spending on defense down to 2.3% of GDP. Regardless of what happens in the world. Why lead anymore? We shouldn't be the most powerful country on earth. Let the others countries pick up the slack.

      Or were you trying to make a point about CO2 emissions and global warming? Isn't the answer the same: Why lead anymore? We shouldn't be the most powerful country on earth. Let the other countries pick up the slack.

      Somehow I don't think that was the answer you were looking for ;^) You of coruse can't just declare "war" on global warming and have the result the way you want it to...

    13. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by NetNed · · Score: 1

      When it's all about money, facts take a back seat to maximizing how to obtain the most cash possible. That's why you have terms like "Negotiators" in that story and not scientists.

    14. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by CaptainLard · · Score: 1

      I installed a 7.8 kW solar array on my roof which will pay its manufacturing energy back within 2 years and provide all or most of my electricity for another 20-30. Also convinced at least 2 neighbors and my in-laws to install solar. When I needed a new car I bought the one that gets 10 MPG better than the other final candidate. I got a road bike so I can take the bus to work weather permitting (the stop is 4 miles from the office). And new this year I'm going to start buying carbon offsets that fund renewable energy research.

      Can I do more? Sure but I can also get pretty close to carbon neutral (hopefully net negative) with a few changes that really don't affect my lifestyle at all. It boggles my mind how people who don't own oil/coal companies can be so against getting off fossil fuels...even if you don't think global warming will become a huge problem in our lifetime...or ever. It would be worth it just to get us out of the middle east!

    15. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 2, Informative

      Suppose 97% of your military commanders came forward and told you they believed that a country would invade.

      This is not analogous. The 97% consensus is fraudulent. At best, it is agreement only among climate scientists that there is global warming and that it is mostly human-caused. Once you get away from the sliver of scientists who while most knowledgeable about the situation are also the most beholden, then the consensus drops significantly (for example, Earth scientists had agreement of 90% with the assertion that climate had warmed since 1850 and 82% consensus that most of this change was due to humans).

      In particular, this is not a consensus on action to fight climate change or the even stronger target of holding global warming at 2C since 1850! It is interesting how so many people, including you, conflate agreement that most global warming is human-caused (which incidentally I agree with), with some hardcore policy decisions. I am part of the "97%", but I don't agree.

      Moving on, there is a great deal of hidden disagreement among climate researchers on the reliability of paleoclimate data, the adjustments made while aggregating that data, and the reliability of climate models to predict future climate. For example, cherrypicking from this survey of climate researchers (from 2008), they found that 26% of those surveyed had absolutely no confidence (a "1" on a scale of 1 to 7) in precipitation predictions for the next 50 years and 33% had a similar absence of confidence in extreme weather predictions over the next 50 years. You don't hear about that when the dire warnings of famine and extreme weather come around, do you?

      67% do believe strongly (score 6 or 7) that without mitigation or adaption, there will be catastrophic consequences in the next 50 years.

      Moving on, the survey asked an interesting question "The best approach to resolving the problems related to climate change is:" Here, pure mitigation would be "1" and pure adaptation would be "7". A full 30% straddle the fence at "4". 43% favored mitigation to some degree and 27% favored adaptation. Where is the consensus on holding the line at 2C increase since 1850? It doesn't look like 97% to me.

      For those who wish to pay attention and learn something about science, this is what happens when you have a manufactured consensus which doesn't actually consider the opinions of the people supposedly polled and stretches the actual claims to claim far more than was actually asked. It's not science, it's an argument from authority fallacy.

    16. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      Cliffs could be anywhere. Why should I worry more about cliffs here than elsewhere? You need evidence in order to avoid blind decisions.

    17. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      Arguing time frame is rearranging the deck chairs. If anyone cares about society as is, the sooner we reduce CO2 emissions, the better.

      Unless, of course, doing it sooner is bad for humanity and the environment. Mitigation isn't free. There are huge costs associated with it.

      You will die eventually. The sooner the better, right?

    18. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      Even if you are absolutely convinced that there is no climate change, or that it is natural and unavoidable, or that nothing bad will happen or whatever, it's still worth cleaning up the environment.

      In that case, you aren't actually cleaning up the environment. Think about it.

    19. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You just produced the strongest argument for disbelieving AGW that I ever saw...

    20. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      - 40% of all humans live within 100km of an ocean....

      Arguing time frame is rearranging the deck chairs.

      Nonsense - time frame is very important. If we have to relocate everyone 100km inland in the next thousand years, that's easy. If we have to do it in the next minute ... a lot of people are going to drown.

    21. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by hort_wort · · Score: 1

      I appreciate your summary of statistics. I was unfamiliar with some of those and they make me feel a little better. Not much, but a little.

      You're correct about the 97% being an estimate of the number of scientists who believe in AGW. That's based on percentage of papers about climate change in general that expressed on opinion on it. A more accurate analogy would have been to multiply the 97% by the 67% who think it could lead to catastrophic damage in the next 50 years that you mentioned.

      Mitigation and adaptation would both require investment to pull off. Going back to my annoying analogy of a military invasion, you could say this is like trying to decide if you should focus on offense or defense, respectively. A little of both might be the best solution.

      The point I was trying to drive home was that, in 2014, the US federal budget had $21.4B going into climate change programs and activities. This only 0.1% of the $16.8T going into the military. It just seems odd to me that one threat gets so much more funding than another.

    22. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nobody is suggesting we need to impoverish people and societies in order to mitigate global warming! Why are you stuck on this stupid, fallacious talking point?! There's every indication that investment in renewable energy is good for economic reasons as well as environmental reasons, while the effects of unimpeded climate change will be disastrous for the economy. Is your head stuck so far up your ass that you can't pull it out?

    23. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Except of course for the fact that the 97% number comes from a study of the position on AGW taken by papers on climate in peer reviewed journals, not from a study of the opinions of scientists. In addition, The study in question concluded that any paper which did not explicitly state that it disagreed with AGW supported AGW, even when it was on a topic not related to warming at all.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    24. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because this is a cliff you can see if your eyes are open. Also, you have a cliff-detection radar that is sounding an alarm. And there are signs everywhere around you saying "danger! cliff ahead!". How much more evidence do you need than the fact that *everyone* with more knowledge on the subject than you have is convinced?

    25. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by hort_wort · · Score: 1

      This is the study:
      http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748...

      "Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming."

    26. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have a smaller solar panel system and I ride my bike to work. And yes, it actually improves my life.

    27. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Citizen+of+Earth · · Score: 1

      Yes, we should kill tens of millions of poor people and donate tens of trillions of dollars to genocidal dictators in order to "play it safe", y'know, just in case. Good thing that CO2 hypothesis has already been refuted by the two-decade "hiatus". Just as soon as the layperson realizes this is all a giant scam, we can be done with this.

    28. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      so effectively then you've done nothing?

    29. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Arguing time frame is rearranging the deck chairs. If anyone cares about society as is, the sooner we reduce CO2 emissions, the better"

            So how are YOU reducing your CO2 emissions since you have decided it's such an important thing to do.

      Ah, the old "think globally, act locally" meme. Believe it or not, most large social problems cannot be solved by individual action. I can bike to work all I want (and before you go after me with the same ad hominem drivel, I do), but unless we move past voluntary compliance to some sort of compulsion (economic or physical), history teaches me that nothing is going to happen.

      Personally, I'm fine. I've done very well in software, and I've read the IPCC reports, so I know where to move my family and descendants too if the world doesn't get its act together ASAP. It will cost a few million, but I can afford it. And no, individually dropping all my wealth on the problem will not accomplish anything (it would be more like pissing in the ocean), so please don't tell me to do that either. I am contributing to various political efforts (which seems more effective) but I'm pretty cynical these days when I read stuff like your response.

      Fortunately, my kids have more energy, and maybe the best thing I can do is help them fight for their world.

    30. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Third, we still don't have actual evidence that there is a serious problem.

      There isn't any actual evidence that there is not a serious problem either. By working against possible solutions you are making a huge bet there isn't a huge problem. Are you prepared to lose that bet? I think I'll continue to believe the climate scientists who have gotten more right than wrong in their predictions.

    31. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Mitigation isn't free but neither is adaption. If you look at history mitigation if often less expensive than adaption. That's where the old adage "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." (Ben Franklin) comes from.

    32. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      If you look at history mitigation if often less expensive than adaption.

      And it is often more expensive by the same measure.

      "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

      And why human behavior and physiology is highly adapted to being lazy.

    33. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1
      By all means, show me this cliff and this cliff radar. And these signs.

      How much more evidence do you need than the fact that *everyone* with more knowledge on the subject than you have is convinced?

      Evidence. It's all there in the word. I don't need hysterical humans, I need evidence.

    34. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      Nobody is suggesting we need to impoverish people and societies in order to mitigate global warming!

      Yes, I've heard this before. The unicorns and pixie dust will keep that from happening. In practice, it's been one fuck up after another.

      There's every indication that investment in renewable energy is good for economic reasons as well as environmental reasons, while the effects of unimpeded climate change will be disastrous for the economy.

      Let's not jump the gun. Show me these indications first. Meanwhile, I'll show you the contrary indications, such as a US Department of Energy loan guarantee program (the one that donated public money to the Solyndra bankruptcy) which has yet to demonstrate a single viable renewable energy scheme in its portfolio of "investments", Germany and Denmark's doubling of residential electricity prices, or poorly designed cap and trade carbon emission markets in Europe.

    35. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      in 2014, the US federal budget had $21.4B going into climate change programs and activities. This only 0.1% of the $16.8T going into the military.

      The US military is around $600 billion actually. Given that both sums are remarkably ineffective, I would suggest cutting both substantially instead.

    36. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      There isn't any actual evidence that there is not a serious problem either.

      It's not a serious problem now. And it's only a problem because of the large number of people on the planet.

      I think I'll continue to believe the climate scientists who have gotten more right than wrong in their predictions.

      At least you're thinking. But I think we need to be looking for a lot more right than that. And we need to look for some demonstration of that correctness that doesn't rely on adjustment of existing data to fit a particular narrative of catastrophic AGW.

    37. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    38. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      So you say that, the more a scientist knows about climate science, the more likely said scientist is to believe in AGW? And that we presumably would get a better sense of the science by asking cosmologists and biophysicists and psychologists?

      What is your reason for thinking that climate scientists are "beholden", whatever that means? The usual line is that one fervently doesn't want to believe in AGW, and therefore the scientists must be wrong, and therefore that they have to be corrupted or compelled or something.

      If you want to know what the scientists think, ignore the journalists. The IPCC report is very methodical in expressing the amount of confidence there is in various predictions, for example.

      I don't know to what extent the 2K rise in temperature was scientific and to what extent it was political or economic. Scientists are good at answering questions like "What's likely to happen if we don't do anything different?" or "What's likely to happen if we change and do X?", although of course there's a lot of uncertainty in something like climate science. It is currently a political goal.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    39. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      I fail to see the problem with evidence.

      We'll start with the fact that it's been known for over a century that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, and that increasing the amount in the atmosphere would increase the heat the Earth retains. Add to that the billions of tons we put in each year (about 7.5 billion metric tons is about 1 ppm - you can verify that by finding the mass of the atmosphere and applying a little basic chemistry). We know the increased carbon dioxide comes primarily from fossil fuels by the carbon isotope distribution.

      At this point, the naive conclusion would be that we're causing a warmup, and that if one didn't occur it would be good to ask why.

      If you want to check temperatures, you can go by what the scientists say about measurement, or you can dig into the raw data, which is available in large quantities. You can decide how deep you want to dive into this.

      The evidence is out there, and you're welcome to look at it.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    40. Re:still advocating for extreme mitigation by khallow · · Score: 1

      We'll start with the fact that it's been known for over a century that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, and that increasing the amount in the atmosphere would increase the heat the Earth retains. Add to that the billions of tons we put in each year (about 7.5 billion metric tons is about 1 ppm - you can verify that by finding the mass of the atmosphere and applying a little basic chemistry). We know the increased carbon dioxide comes primarily from fossil fuels by the carbon isotope distribution.

      At this point, the naive conclusion would be that we're causing a warmup, and that if one didn't occur it would be good to ask why.

      Fine so far. I agree.

      If you want to check temperatures, you can go by what the scientists say about measurement, or you can dig into the raw data, which is available in large quantities. You can decide how deep you want to dive into this.

      Let's work with the IPCC's assumptions (and that doesn't mean that I will agree with IPCC claims, I'm just using their own assumptions) since they are driving this debate. They claim CO2 temperature forcing is 1.5C to 4.5C per doubling of CO2 concentration, that there are mild costs to mitigation, that there are larger costs associated with adaptation, and that hardcore mitigation will void the need for anything beyond a trivial amount of adaptation.

      One sees a huge problem right away with the huge range of temperature forcing. Namely, the harm of higher CO2 concentrations varies greatly depending where you are. For example, to hold long term temperature increases to 2C from 1850 (285 ppm CO2 in 1850), the final concentration of CO2 is determined from the following formula:

      285 ppm*2^(2C/forcing), where "forcing" is the increase in temperature which comes from a doubling of CO2. For a few values, here's what you get:

      1.5 718
      2 570
      2.5 496
      3 452
      3.5 424
      4 403
      4.5 387
      The obvious observation is that this extreme stop scenario only makes sense, if the forcing constant is at or above 3 C. We're currently at 400 ppm and rising at a rate of roughly 2 ppm/year. That means that if the temperature forcing were 2.5 C/doubling instead of 3 C/doubling, then we'd have another couple of decades to reduce mitigation. At 2C/doubling, it's more like half a century additional time.

      Conversely, the goal of holding temperature increases to 2C makes sense only if the forcing constant is at or below around 3.5C/doubling. Above that, you are still spending on adaptation. Above that, you do need under the IPCC assumptions commit to full CO2 halt, but there are trade offs between adaptation and mitigation that need to be considered, rather than just going with mitigation-only strategy. I have my suspicions why they completely avoid discussing adaptation, but I'll save that for later.

      So the strategy being pushed works only for a narrow range. Outside that range, which would be a majority of the probability, it's either too aggressive a schedule or not aggressive enough (by avoiding adaptation spending).

      An obvious aspect which is ignored is that there is no plan B. What happens, if instead, we target a 3C increase instead of a 2C increase? After all, by the IPCC's own admission, there's a fair probability we are already past a 2C increase (and that's not even counting the high CO2 emission countries that just aren't going to comply with a hardcore emission reduction scheme without more evidence or perhaps, coercion than present). 1.5 1140 2 806
      2.5 654
      3 570
      3.5 516
      4 479
      4.5 452
      Now, the 4.5C/doubling is doable using the proposed break-hard strategy and 3C/doubling is where we were with 2C/doubling at the old level. At lower levels of forcing, like 2C/doubling, we have something like a century of additional time.

      But that level of increase might result in some degree of adaptation spending. And now, we come to one of the mysteries of the IPCC, why avoid

  19. Le French Pelosi by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 1

    >> Laurence Tubiana, the French envoy for the talks, said: "Nothing is decided until everything is decided."

    Hmmm...where have we heard that before?

  20. Re:Why do "wealthy" nations have to help the other by alvinrod · · Score: 2

    We don't have to, but we probably should to some degree. No matter how much any one country cleans up its own act, it still faces the consequences from the decisions of the rest of the world.

    Of course helping doesn't have to mean throwing money at the problem that's likely to disappear into the pockets of corrupt leadership. It could be as simple as shouldering the R&D burden for find solutions that reduce pollution and then giving those away to the developing nations so that they minimize their environmental impact.

  21. Re:Why do "wealthy" nations have to help the other by Nidi62 · · Score: 1

    You can argue that the western Industrial Revolution kicked off the CO2 rise, but these days with static or negative population growth the 'wealthy' or 'developed' nations aren't the problem; it's the 3rd world shitholes like India, China, and places in Africa where they have zero environmental regulations and/or burn firewood that are messing things up now.

    Aren't we done with White Man's Burden?

    I think the issue is more that the West was able to grow and advance its economy because of industries that are highly polluting, and to prevent developing countries from utilizing these same industries will hamper their own growth and further resigning them to the fate of a 3rd World/developing country. Honestly, it's probably better/cheaper in the long run to have Western states pay to help clean up/negate the CO2 production of the developing states than to continue to give aid that is usually pretty ineffective and has a very destabilizing effect, because a lot of foreign aid gets diverted from its intended use and is regularly used to line the coffers of government officials, local/tribal elites, or warlords.

    --
    The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
  22. BS- china is building coal plants like crazy! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    China has 2363 coal power plants, and is building or has in plan 1171 more. That does not sound like a country reducing its CO2 emmissions (like the US where emissions are declining).
    India has 589, and is building or has in plan 446 more.

    If you would like a detailed report with references on China's energy politics and activity, go here:

    http://www.thegwpf.org/new-report-the-truth-about-china/

    You think China is the largest investor in renewables, they are also the biggest burner of coal and importer of oil.
    So what?

  23. Re:Why do "wealthy" nations have to help the other by hey! · · Score: 1

    Enlightened self-interest. Sheesh.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  24. On both occations the snark indicates ignorance by bussdriver · · Score: 1

    Just like Pelosi and every other time a politician said similar things, it's an indication of how most negotiated deals work. One doesn't need experience to understand this just a basic grasp of how things work in the real world.

    In the case of Pelosi, anybody who passed US government 101 should grasp how much sense her statement actually makes. Same goes for "I was for it before I was against it" which also sounds bad out of context or with ignorance.

    Analogy: Love the 1st movie but hate the movie trilogy.

    1. Re:On both occations the snark indicates ignorance by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 1

      >> it's an indication of how most negotiated deals work

      Not on Earth, anyway. Most sensible people go into negotiations with a list of things they absolutely must have and a list of things they'd like to have, and might even have a list of BS that they're willing to trade away or drop to get their "must haves" and "nice to haves" passed. What politicians' constituents want is some idea of which items are on which list before the final decision is made to they can influence the deal.

      When politicians say things like "I was for it before I was against it", "we have to pass it before we know what's in it", or "nothing is decided until everything is decided" that really means, "I give zero fucks about this issue, but I'll vote for whatever deal comes out of here because I think most people at least want some lip service paid to this issue and I like my cushy job."

    2. Re:On both occations the snark indicates ignorance by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Depends on the negotiation. If everything is negotiable up to the final agreement, then we don't know what's going to be in the final version until we have it and everything is finalized. Otherwise, a change in one thing might wind up changing another that we thought pretty settled.

      When I buy a car, I'm not committed to anything unless and until the salesperson and I agree on a contract that has everything laid out. Same principle.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  25. Re:Why do "wealthy" nations have to help the other by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    well USA generates about 17.0 metric tons per capita, where as India generates 1.7 metric tons per capita. So you dirty white idiots who are polluting the earth per capita more than anyone else better start walking to work, turning down your AC's and so on... It's not the White Man's Burden, the white man is the burden..

  26. advocating for (usless) extreme mitigation ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Even of all the INDCs (countries pledges to reduce CO2) are met, and the cuts are extended from 2030 to 2070...get this, ONLY 0.2 degrees C of warming will be averted by 2100 !

    That's right, trillions of dollars and two tenths of a degree of warming is averted.
    That's according to the UNIPCC "MAGICC" model used to model climate mitigation effects.
    As Bjorn Lomborg wrote in his peer review paper details the actual temperature consequences of Paris if all goes according to their projections.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/17/lomborg-pushes-back-against-joe-romms-over-the-top-screed-about-the-true-vale-of-cop21/

    This is a colossal wast of time and money.
    They will be screaming for even more draconian cuts in a few years.

    The whole enterprise is a socialist plan for wealth transfer from the indebted wealthy countries to the third world.
    The UN Official Ottmar Edenhofer said in an interview the truth...this is about wealth redistribution.

    -This does not sound anymore like the climate policy that we know. (Interviewer)
    -(Edenhofer) "Basically it’s a big mistake to discuss climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization. The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War..... But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy"

  27. cost over $2,000,000 to taxpayers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    while using tons and tons of c02

  28. Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by Burz · · Score: 1

    ...has not been shown to be safe. So the burden of proof is on those who lean towards doing "nothing" (keep polluting).

    The base of the oceanic food chain is at risk of shutting down, due to both acidification from CO2 and warming. That is serious Sh!t.

    Preaching the gospel of unintended consequences in the market isn't very convincing when steadfastly trying to ignore the unintended consequences on our entire physical existence -- like money is more important than the biosphere.

    1. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by khallow · · Score: 1

      ...has not been shown to be safe. So the burden of proof is on those who lean towards doing "nothing" (keep polluting).

      The base of the oceanic food chain is at risk of shutting down, due to both acidification from CO2 and warming. That is serious Sh!t.

      We don't have evidence that the oceanic food chain will shut down. Instead, it seems just fine. That fulfills the "burden of proof".

    2. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by Burz · · Score: 1

      Yes, there is growing evidence. If the oceans became anoxic in past global warming extinction events, then it stands to reason that anoxia is a risk in the anthropocene.

      And that temperature risk is on top of the acidification risk which is already being felt.

      http://thinkprogress.org/clima...
      http://news.mit.edu/2015/ocean...

      You have to be in deep denial to think the oceanic (or land-based) food chain "seems just fine". It is anything but.

      There is no "do nothing" option. We have the choice of continuing current biosphere-damaging industrial processes (the real extreme here) or switching to processes that stay within ecological limits that the biosphere is able to handle.

    3. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by khallow · · Score: 1
      Evidence distinguishes between hypotheses. You have not presented evidence. For example, there's no evidence to support the assertion that current rates of change are faster than they were during actual extinction events. Second, there is a conflation of rate of change with amount of change.

      There is no "do nothing" option.

      When doing something is worse than doing nothing, then there is such an option.

      We have the choice of continuing current biosphere-damaging industrial processes (the real extreme here) or switching to processes that stay within ecological limits that the biosphere is able to handle.

      You ignore here that the primary biosphere-damaging process is population growth. This is driven primarily by poverty. From the variety of poorly executed climate mitigation schemes that have already taken place, there seems to me to be a strong indication that we will see poverty increase with any of the desired hardcore climate change options, and that in turn will result in an increase in population and in climate change.

    4. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by Burz · · Score: 1

      Evidence distinguishes between hypotheses. You have not presented evidence. For example, there's no evidence to support the assertion that current rates of change are faster than they were during actual extinction events. Second, there is a conflation of rate of change with amount of change.

      This looks like a wall of denial to me, and a complete inability to reference anything credible. In the context of science as a social process, that indicates failure.

      As for the rate of change, our emissions are actually outstripping what occurred before past extinction events. During the PETM, the rate of CO2 buildup was 2B metric tons per year while today it is 30B metric tons per year.

      There is no "do nothing" option.

      When doing something is worse than doing nothing, then there is such an option.

      What you call "do nothing" is in fact doing something. It means we as a species are polluting the environment, changing it for the worse. That is doing something, although it may not seem that way from your viewpoint as an entitled consumer.

      We have the choice of continuing current biosphere-damaging industrial processes (the real extreme here) or switching to processes that stay within ecological limits that the biosphere is able to handle.

      You ignore here that the primary biosphere-damaging process is population growth. This is driven primarily by poverty. From the variety of poorly executed climate mitigation schemes that have already taken place, there seems to me to be a strong indication that we will see poverty increase with any of the desired hardcore climate change options, and that in turn will result in an increase in population and in climate change.

      Population has a lot to do with it, but cannot be singled-out. Fossil fuel use and industrialization in the West led to a population boom first in the West (along with a boom in emissions per capita) and then elsewhere. But widespread female education and careerism, for instance, can curtail or stop population growth (and increase wealth and environmental health) IF the supporting industrial processes are cleaned up. We are facing systemic failure with multiple reinforcing factors and there are many different aspects to mitigating it.

    5. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by khallow · · Score: 1

      Evidence distinguishes between hypotheses. You have not presented evidence. For example, there's no evidence to support the assertion that current rates of change are faster than they were during actual extinction events. Second, there is a conflation of rate of change with amount of change.

      This looks like a wall of denial to me, and a complete inability to reference anything credible. In the context of science as a social process, that indicates failure.

      But a wall of denial on whose part? After all, you don't actually know rates of change for prehistoric changes in atmospheric composition, you just hope it's less than present. I don't either, but that doesn't help your argument.

    6. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by Burz · · Score: 1

      So now its not about weighing the evidence... its shifted to "actually knowing". This is a confusionist tactic and has nothing to do with science.

    7. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by khallow · · Score: 1

      So now its not about weighing the evidence... its shifted to "actually knowing".

      I've been very clear on what I mean by "actually knowing".

      This is a confusionist tactic and has nothing to do with science.

      You are so very quick to say such things about me. This is an example of an ad hominem fallacy.

      A key problem with using geological evidence to determine rate of change, is that stuff moves. Normally, that isn't much of a problem because the evidence consists of very thick deposits. But for events like the PETM, you're trying to resolve events that happened over a 20,000 year period from over 50 million years in the future. Even in ideal circumstances the signal is smeared over time due to the inconsistency of deposits and migration of isotopes studied.

      And methane release is not studied directly at all, but merely deduced from concentrations of carbon isotopes.

      For example, it could have been not a gradual release over 20,000 years, but little release over most of the time period, punctuated by large releases over very short periods of time. I think that more likely merely because modern volcanoes tend to operate that way. That means among other things, oceanic chemistry could be very different from what was presented in the current AGW-biased narrative. It's going to be a very different story, if ocean anoxia is due to underwater volcanoes dumping huge amounts of toxic chemicals and nutrients directly into deep sea rather than some ancient flavor of global warming.

      It's also worth noting that gradual change, such as present with human industry is less likely to result in extinction than punctuated change.

      Second, you ignore the absolute size of the release which is much larger than the human contribution to this point and the different circumstances, such as sea level not having significantly risen prior to the alleged release of clathrates from sea beds. If current human-generated global warming reaches 5 C and the ice at the poles melts, clathrates in seabeds will be much more stable due to the presence of 200 meters of addtional water pressure (100 meters from the end of the last ice age, and 100 meters from the melting of the two major ice fields, Greenland and Antarctica).

      We don't actually know. We don't have evidence. We have salesmen yet agin peddling a particular story. And that story is always that human-caused global warming is, despite no evidence to the contrary, about to cause a huge catastrophe for which we need to spend a lot of money right now. I think that right there is evidence of a scam.

    8. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by Burz · · Score: 1

      IOW, scientific evidence is invalid if the conditions were not experienced directly, with day-by-day updates. Its just a lot a hand-waving "you don't know, you don't know..." over and over. But the amount of evidence supporting catastrophic AGW is staggering and growing constantly. You just can't stomach to read the science anymore, which is why all you've got is know-nothing blather.

      The fact that the oceans and biosphere take many thousands of years to absorb the volumes of CO2 we're talking about (and that warming lags behind emissions by decades) would seem to be lost. If you read leading paleoclimatologists like Peter Ward, you'll see that past oceanic chemistry and chronology is quite detectable and is being paid close attention.

      We don't actually know. We don't have evidence. We have salesmen yet agin peddling a particular story.

      Like I said, a wall of denial and a shift from "evidence" to demands for absolute certainty (which also has nothing to do with science), this time referring to leading scientists (in a pure research field, no less) as "salesmen". I suppose the "salesmen" are also engaged in a conspiracy, and if Congress just harasses them one more time we'll finally find it.

      Gotta love it!

      You've given no reason to consider why the law of unintended consequences is more important for economics than it is for ecology. Its evident to me that (like modern medicine) ecology provides the reasons why some cheap-and-nasty technologies and practices are not allowed, and that the economy has to work with such limits.

    9. Re:Altering the GHG balance of the atmosphere by khallow · · Score: 1
      It should be really obvious here that extraordinary conclusions require extraordinary evidence.

      But the amount of evidence supporting catastrophic AGW is staggering and growing constantly.

      Then point to this evidence rather than making the same empty assertions over and over again.

      The fact that the oceans and biosphere take many thousands of years to absorb the volumes of CO2 we're talking about (and that warming lags behind emissions by decades) would seem to be lost.

      Unless, of course, that isn't true and hence, isn't a fact.

      Like I said, a wall of denial and a shift from "evidence" to demands for absolute certainty (which also has nothing to do with science), this time referring to leading scientists (in a pure research field, no less) as "salesmen". I suppose the "salesmen" are also engaged in a conspiracy, and if Congress just harasses them one more time we'll finally find it.

      I bet if the salesmen made climate change even scarier and even more urgent, then I'd believe them too. That's how science works, right?

      You've given no reason to consider why the law of unintended consequences is more important for economics than it is for ecology. Its evident to me that (like modern medicine) ecology provides the reasons why some cheap-and-nasty technologies and practices are not allowed, and that the economy has to work with such limits.

      And you know what? I agree. Unintended consequences can happen in ecology too. For example, if we make a lot of people poor, because climate change.

  29. Re:Tax the Rich by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Create a Market to Tax the rich companies and let China and India spew gigatons of REALLY NASTY stuff into the air.
    Make sure USA and EU don't even put CO2 into the air. While they call it "Global" it is only the developed countries they want to screw.
    Get the money out of them, pass it out amongst their friends.

  30. how far do those electronic air cleaners scale up? by laurencetux · · Score: 1

    back a few years ago they sold these things with a Negative? Charged Plate (better ones also had a Reversed Charged plate to zero the charge out after the air was cleaned) that did a decent job of getting the Gack out of the air in a room.

    Could somebody build a few of these in City Size?? (of course being the poor fool that had to scrub the grids off every month would be nasty but...)

  31. Yes ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You got that right.

    They only promise (for what that's worth) to reduce their carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) by 2030-035, maybe.

    And Obama takes this vague promise (that allows them to keep emitting more and more CO2 every year) as a victory.
    What a chump, played like a fiddle by the Chi-coms.

    They are building or plan to build 1100+ more coal plants !

  32. Global temps flat for over 15 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Meanwhile, ISIS is laughing their asses off

  33. consequences? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You provide NO evidence of the base of the food chain failing. Indeed the base of the food chain is plankton, a plant that does better with more CO2 fertilizer. See:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/27/increased-carbon-dioxide-enhances-plankton-growth-opposite-of-what-was-expected/

    And the ocean pH is just a scare from the alarmists. The ocean is so heavily buffered, you could NEVER make it acidic. It is pH >7 now, and it shall remain so.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/23/touchy-feely-science-one-chart-suggests-theres-a-phraud-in-omitting-ocean-acidification-data-in-congressional-testimony/
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/25/ocean-acidification-natural-cycles-and-ubiquitous-uncertainties/

    The first link is an amusing recent case of how warming alarmists lied to congress about ocean pH by omitting data -something the warmists are good at, faking the temperature data by tendentious adjustments. The second shows the historic pH is poorly known (so alarmist trends are poorly supported) and there is wide daily, seasonal variations, and the eco system does fine through these changes.

    The ocean has warmed (due to its vast heat capacity -despite the yottaJoules scare message) only a few hundredths or thousandths of a degree in the past decades. See:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/04/rough-estimate-of-the-annual-changes-in-ocean-temperatures-from-700-to-2000-meters-based-on-nodc-data/

    From 1955 to 2013, the ocean temperature increase is 0.004 degrees !

    1. Re:consequences? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A handful of cranks at WAWT hardly rates as anything except pseudo-science. Keep wasting your breath.

    2. Re:consequences? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      “The results show both the power of long-term time-series of ocean observations for deciphering how marine microbial communities are responding to climate change and offer evidence that the ocean garden is changing,” said Dr. William Balch, senior research scientist at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences and a co-author of the paper. “We never expected to see the relative abundance of coccolithophores to increase 10 times in the North Atlantic over barely half a century. If anything, we expected that these sensitive calcifying algae would have decreased in the face of increasing ocean acidification (associated with increasing carbon dioxide entering the ocean from the burning of fossil-fuels). Instead, we see how these carbon-limited organisms appear to be using the extra carbon from CO2 to increase their relative abundance by an order of magnitude.

      Quoted from the first link

      t. Communist

    3. Re:consequences? by khallow · · Score: 1

      A handful of cranks at WAWT

      Compared to what? The handful of cranks at the IPCC? This is a classic ad hominem fallacy .

      I will stop destroying arguments with labels, when people stop making arguments that can be destroyed with labels.

  34. Lets hear it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is all about how the global elite do not want the poor people polluting their planet while they ride around in luxury cars and pump out children.

  35. Cannot be solved by individual action by Blaskowicz · · Score: 1

    Exactly, this is even the heart of the problem. It's easy for governments and organizations to communicate about everyday "acts" or gestures" you can do to help but not only it is meaningless in the end : it's becoming outright fraud, not only as a cover for inaction but as an extension of the dominant, individualist neoliberal ideology.
    It is like believing that getting rid of collective bargaining will help workers negociate better pay, safety and working conditions : that doesn't happen.

    Let's take the problem of cars as an example. I propose a simple measure, ban cars more powerful than 100 HP or 100kW. Make them not even street legal. Doesn't change fuck all for 80-90% of the population (at least in non-US countries) and a perfect step to signify that no one deserve the privilege to waste so much energy on personal transportation.
    There's likely fuck all chance for that to happen e.g. in the European Union (although it is the land of feel-good self-righteousness) and harm the Mercedes, BMW etc. industries (and turn Ferrari back into a racing-only house, etc.) moreover the famous, the rich and the over-spending middle class ones "need" their "glamorous", "manly" or "pedigree" vehicles. But we need not accept defeat before the fight.

  36. What if by NewYork · · Score: 1

    What if CHINDIA has technology to covertly "export" their https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...