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How Amazon's Drone Deliveries Will Work (yahoo.com)

Posted by Soulskill on from the dropping-boxes-on-people's-heads dept.

An anonymous reader writes: In a new interview, Amazon has revealed details of the drone delivery program they're building out. VP Paul Misener said, "Prime Air is a future delivery service that will get packages to customers within 30 minutes of them ordering it online at Amazon.com. The goals we've set for ourselves are: The range has to be over 10 miles. These things will weigh about 55 pounds each, but they'll be able to deliver parcels that weigh up to five pounds. It turns out that the vast majority of the things we sell at Amazon weigh less than five pounds." They haven't set pricing yet, but deliveries will follow the same protocols that trucks do now — if you're not home, it'll be left on your doorstep or in your yard. The company is developing different kinds of drones to service different climates. They also expect the regulatory issues to dissipate once they can demonstrate how safe the drones are. Amazon anticipates the vast majority of drone flying to be done between altitudes of 200ft and 400ft.

101 of 177 comments (clear)

  1. Why send these from a central location? by Stubtify · · Score: 4, Interesting

    While I don't think the idea makes a lot of sense (Pinkdot anyone?), it is pretty cool. Serious question: why send these from a warehouse? Why not load a flat bed truck up with 50 or so, and drive it to the closest point that all 50 deliveries share and then release them from the back of the flat bed all at the same time. The video linked in the post shows a drone being launched from a warehouse; not too many people live near amazon warehouses.

    1. Re:Why send these from a central location? by Osgeld · · Score: 3, Insightful

      or here's a even better one, why not load the packages up on a truck which then gets distributed from a central hub like thing direct to your door along with other packages going to the same area?

    2. Re:Why send these from a central location? by jtownatpunk.net · · Score: 1

      You gonna put all the support infrastructure on that truck? You have to swap battery packs after every run, load up new packages, make inspections and repairs of the drones, etc. And you need a pretty large area to stage all the takeoffs and landings.

    3. Re: Why send these from a central location? by Elfich47 · · Score: 1

      Larger cities (NYC, Seatle) have embedded Amazon sites in the city for prime now and pantry. If that site is converted for flight use the launch pad is already in the city.

      --
      Architectural plans are like computer source code with a couple of differences: You only compile once.
    4. Re:Why send these from a central location? by jellomizer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The standard distribution is good for overnight deliveries. But anything past that gets increasingly expensive.

      A Hub, is designed to handle deliveries within a days travel, they will load up the trucks with a day's worth of goods. And the Driver will spend the full day driving to each location. Going to the Hub in the Morning and at the end of the shift with preferable an empty truck or filled with packages to be delivered elsewhere.

      To give direct delivery from the Hub to your home, and back to the hub, would make delivery extremely expensive. The Drones (50 lbs), being electrical, flying, and automated makes it much cheaper to get an individual package from hub/warehouse to home. Then it would take for a Person (200lbs), a gasoline vehicle (1000+lbs) and driving to drop off you 5 lbs of goods.

      Now the Current system isn't going to go away if you can fill up your truck then you can still be cheaper than a drone/per lbs of material shipped. But if you need it right away drone can be cheaper.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    5. Re:Why send these from a central location? by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      To load the truck with 50 deliveries means you wouldn't be able to keep the drones in the air. Because the truck will need to drive back and refill with new goods from the warehouse anyways.
       

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    6. Re:Why send these from a central location? by 110010001000 · · Score: 3, Funny

      That will never work. The packages will fall off the roof of the truck. I can see why you aren't VP at Amazon!

    7. Re:Why send these from a central location? by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 1

      A Hub, is designed to handle deliveries within a days travel, they will load up the trucks with a day's worth of goods.

      Depends on the hub and the delivery area. Some trucks can go back to the hub multiple times per day.

      To give direct delivery from the Hub to your home, and back to the hub, would make delivery extremely expensive.

      Which is the reason it's next to impossible for me to order same-day local delivery of flowers from a national floral service. And why it costs a ridiculous sum to get a pizza within 30 minutes from a national chain to arrive at my home.

      Oh wait... those business models have successfully existed for years. It's just that they actually built the local infrastructure for delivery of goods, since those goods were perishable and required fast delivery. Yet somehow I can get them without paying a huge delivery fee.

      The Drones (50 lbs), being electrical, flying, and automated makes it much cheaper to get an individual package from hub/warehouse to home. Then it would take for a Person (200lbs), a gasoline vehicle (1000+lbs) and driving to drop off you 5 lbs of goods.

      Yes, and that's ridiculous, but that's a strawman. Just like florists or pizza delivery guys, they could drive a smaller (less expensive) car and many of their delivery runs could be shorter while still generally serving multiple customers per run.

      Let's think about what's really going on here. Amazon doesn't have the infrastructure to deliver goods on that timescale, that's what. They started out as a bookstore... and if they had chosen a different route, they perhaps could have set up a partnership with local bookstores (as florists do, independent businesses but participating in national networks).

      But oh... yeah, Amazon put most of them out of business, thus ruining the distribution centers that could have already existed.

      And obviously local bookstore inventory would always be a bit limited, just like your local florist might not have some exotic flowers or something. So if you want something special, it could take a little longer or you could pay more. That's where perhaps the drones would really be helpful.

      But let's be clear about this -- Amazon wants to "win the game" and outcompete almost all local retail. They don't want to share profits, even if in the short term it might be cheaper and easier. They want to drive the competition out, so the only thing left is having the drone drop something off. Yes, it's a gamble, but in the long run if they generate the monopoly they obviously want, then yes, they "win the game."

      Let's not pretend their aren't other options which would be cheaper and easier than single drones carrying single packages, though -- at least for delivery of common goods that you'd likely be able to find in a local store anyhow. Amazon just doesn't want to play that game, though, because it would likely require sharing their greed with other businesses instead of creating a monopoly. Same-day fast delivery is the last thing necessary (in their view) to create that monopoly and finally destroy local retail forever.

      And don't get me wrong -- I completely understand Amazon's choice here as a business. But I also think we'll lose something if we lose local retail. The browsing experience in a local store is simply different from what happens online (not all bad -- worse in some ways, but better in others).

    8. Re:Why send these from a central location? by dsmatthews9379 · · Score: 1

      Good point, not only do you extend the range of the operation you also partially get around one serious flaw with it. If all drones launch from one point they can be tracked and captured by criminal mugger drones. The criminals would take the item being delivered and resell it while using the parts of the captured drone to make more mugger drones so that Amazon can't tell for sure if one of the drones in the sky near their warehouse is still on their side or if it has crossed over to the dark-side.

      How can people be smart enough to run a company like Amazon and not have seen that coming, surely they did a risk analysis that went beyond the liability of having the drones land on people's heads?

    9. Re:Why send these from a central location? by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      While I don't think the idea makes a lot of sense (Pinkdot anyone?), it is pretty cool.

      Serious question: why send these from a warehouse? Why not load a flat bed truck up with 50 or so, and drive it to the closest point that all 50 deliveries share and then release them from the back of the flat bed all at the same time. The video linked in the post shows a drone being launched from a warehouse; not too many people live near amazon warehouses.

      Because, at least for now driving requires a human and Amazon probably wants to eliminate humans from the equation - excepting the customer of course.

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
  2. Weights by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It turns out that the vast majority of the things we sell at Amazon weigh less than five pounds.

    Sure, but surely the average customer buys several things at a time? They should be looking at the weight of the average basket/delivery instead of the average item.

    1. Re:Weights by SJHillman · · Score: 2

      If you buy all your groceries from Amazon Pantry, the sky will blacken with a swarm of drones, each loaded with a single can of baked beans.

    2. Re:Weights by irussel · · Score: 1

      When David Letterman said it was raining canned hams, he was being prescient!

  3. Recharge on the go.... by crypton · · Score: 2

    The plan is probably to eventually have a small fleet of drones attached to a self-driving (probably electric drive) vehicle where they can return to recharge after making the delivery hop locally. The drone fleet could also hop to a new vehicle that was dispatched from the local warehouse with new deliveries. I would not be surprised if the vehicles will also be able to recharge themselves at their own charging ports at the warehouse or somewhere on the delivery route.

    1. Re:Recharge on the go.... by neilo_1701D · · Score: 1

      I would not be surprised if the vehicles will also be able to recharge themselves at their own charging ports at the warehouse or somewhere on the delivery route.

      I would be quite surprised if this happens. LiPO batteries take ages to charge, for their flight time. My Chroma has a 6300mAh battery that offers (at most) 25 min of flight time. It takes somewhere between three and five hours to recharge the battery. The logistics don't work out; you would need someone on the truck swapping over the flight packs.

    2. Re:Recharge on the go.... by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      If car companies can come up with the idea of automated battery swapping, you can be sure the people at Amazon also thought about it.

    3. Re:Recharge on the go.... by dave420 · · Score: 1

      Because people could figure out how to get an automated vehicle driving around streets, and an automated vehicle flying from the first vehicle to various properties and delivering packages, but they couldn't figure out how to automate the changing of batteries. Really?

  4. Re:People freaking out by Osgeld · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I cant imagine what shithole you live in where a kid would see a fucking flying robot and instantly try to stone it

  5. Re:How will this work for my flat (apartment)? by jtownatpunk.net · · Score: 1

    It won't. Same as it won't work for my house out in the sticks surrounded by tall trees. I don't think there's a clear area bigger than 20'x20' except the spot where the house sits. Oh, maybe the parking area in front of the garage would be big enough. Nevermind. I'm good. Sucks for you, tho, unless your apartment building has a flat roof that you can access.

  6. Re:SIgh... by mrops · · Score: 1

    i have been flying drones, half a geek can build drones that avoid collisions, auto land using laser range finders or sonars. And this is open source stuff that few hobbyist put together, no where near the kind of effort apache or linux put in.

    So I think its fear mongering.

    Further, all those news, I have always seen a commercial product from DJI etc, a bloke went and bought one from target. None were ever where hobbyist who have made there own drones. They are more responsible, know the rules and play within it.

  7. Cool but silly idea by cnaumann · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The idea sounds cool enough, but how does it benefit the customer? I am struggling to figure out what issue is solved by drone delivery. Drones are not faster than cars so it is not a speed issue. The drones require pilots so it is not a labor issue. Drones are expensive compared to a scooter or a used car so it is not a cost issue. Drones can't fly in bad weather so it is not a reliability issue...

    If you are only 10 miles from your customer, you might as well open a retail store. Order on-line and pick up at the counter.

      Pizza delivery has been 30 minutes or less for decades and they do not need drones.

    1. Re:Cool but silly idea by DogDude · · Score: 1

      Amazon is losing money with every item it sells. I can only assume they're trying to save money by not paying a third party for delivery?

      --
      I don't respond to AC's.
    2. Re:Cool but silly idea by asavage · · Score: 1

      If they could deliver to the balcony of an apartment/condo it would make online shopping way better. Currently unless you are home and the driver is willing to buzz, take the elevator etc. you will not get any package and have to go to the pickup location. With drones you would get 100% deliveries on time.

    3. Re:Cool but silly idea by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Drones are not faster than cars so it is not a speed issue.

      Drones won't be slowed down by streets, traffic lights and traffic itself. It's going to be pretty much a straight line from start to finish.

      The drones require pilots so it is not a labor issue.

      We have multiple car companies announcing self-driving cars along regular human drivers within 5 to 10 years and you think Amazon's going to need people piloting drones that fly in the air?

      Drones are expensive compared to a scooter or a used car so it is not a cost issue.

      It depends on the components required to build the drone. Also, I don't see UPS using scooters or used cars to make deliveries.

      Drones can't fly in bad weather so it is not a reliability issue...

      Cars can't really drive in bad weather either, they both have their limits. Cars when there's too much wind (up to a point)? Not a problem. Drones when the roads are icy? Not a problem.

    4. Re:Cool but silly idea by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      Or you can just let them leave the package on your porch, like most of us do already.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    5. Re:Cool but silly idea by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Drones won't be slowed down by streets, traffic lights and traffic itself. It's going to be pretty much a straight line from start to finish.

      If you get enough drones flying at the same time there will be traffic issues.

    6. Re:Cool but silly idea by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      This won't be like in movies, drones won't be flying in only two dimensions.

    7. Re:Cool but silly idea by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      If they're only flying between 200 and 400 feet AGL it's pretty close to 2 dimensions.

    8. Re:Cool but silly idea by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      These are drones, not airliners. That's plenty of room for four layers of flights.

    9. Re:Cool but silly idea by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Maybe. It depends on how well the drones are able to hold altitude.

    10. Re:Cool but silly idea by Jack+Griffin · · Score: 1

      Cars can't really drive in bad weather either,

      Have you ever been in a car? I have and they handle weather a lot better than a small drone.

    11. Re:Cool but silly idea by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Not to mention the altitude all the drones will have to hit: 0. If I order some food that comes in glass containers, I really don't want the Amazon drone dropping it from 200 feet.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  8. Re:American South by silas_moeckel · · Score: 1

    Now Amazon just needs to start selling ammo and have your friend order it.

    --
    No sir I dont like it.
  9. Re:Security... by torqer · · Score: 1

    Maybe there will be a boom sales of fire extinguishers... a fleet of firefighting drones instead of a firetruck. Might be useful in certain circumstances.

  10. Re:Never by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    There is no such thing as "zero risk" technology. It's a good thing safety zealots weren't around 100 years ago, otherwise we would have never developed automobiles or air travel.

  11. Drone laws by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The FAA should just ask Amazon to write the laws on commercial drone delivery and save us taxpayers the time and money. Honestly, I trust Amazon to write better rules for this (and take far less time to do so) than the FAA will ever be able to do. They took over a decade to come up with their current "register your drone" website that doesn't do anything but give the feds another list.

    1. Re:Drone laws by ProzacPatient · · Score: 1

      If I am not mistaken Amazon could do this since anyone can write a bill; it's just a matter of finding a congressman or a senator willing to take a big enough campaign "donation" to sponsor the bill and introduce it to their respective legislative body.

  12. Re:American South by ray-auch · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Forget the gubmint spahs stuff, they've already established they can shoot anything out of the sky over their property ( http://www.cnet.com/news/judge... ), _and_ that it's also ok for the drone owner to be TTFO at gunpoint...

    Now there's going to be free stuff flying through the air, and it's legal to shoot it down and keep it. That's gonna be redneck heaven, a fairground tin can shoot but free to play, real guns and real prizes...

  13. Re:SIgh... by NEDHead · · Score: 1

    Jeez, did you have to mention Trump? I get enough of him as it is...

  14. Delivery to your BACK yard. by Marc_Hawke · · Score: 4, Interesting

    One thing aerial drones can do that delivery guys can't is access a fenced back yard. Instead of dropping it off on the front porch, they can drop it off on your back patio.

    The 'not at home' delivery is the most confusing to me. I can't imagine they'd get very close too the door. They definitely can't 'hide it inconspicuously' behind something. I guess even when you are at home, they can't really knock on the door. So I guess it's just the middle of the yard every time.

    At least the backyard would be better.

    --
    --Welcome to the Realm of the Hawke--
    1. Re:Delivery to your BACK yard. by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      Right.. The back yard with the bored lab puppy. Who would simply love a nice, chewy box to play with.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:Delivery to your BACK yard. by mobby_6kl · · Score: 1

      If Amazon can deliver your package to your back yard, I can take it from your back yard, too.

      BRB, gonna go charge my DJI :D

    3. Re:Delivery to your BACK yard. by Milharis · · Score: 1

      I guess they expect most people to be there to get the package since it's pretty much instant.
      You could place the order at work during the lunch break to have it in the evening when you come home, but in that case you might as well place the order before you leave work, and be there on time or close enough to get the package.

    4. Re:Delivery to your BACK yard. by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      One thing aerial drones can do that delivery guys can't is access a fenced back yard.

      Are you kidding, have you seen how well these guys can throw even the largest of parcels? They could make a delivery into a prison without issue, no drone required. You may want to get insurance for any glass items though.

    5. Re:Delivery to your BACK yard. by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

      This is no different than current.

      I used to deliver for UPS. The policy was to "driver release" (drop off a package without signature) any package as long as it is a residence and that the package could be left somewhere out of view from the street.

      --
      My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
    6. Re:Delivery to your BACK yard. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I think the assumption is that if you want the thing delivered fast by drone you will be there to receive it. If the speed doesn't matter then just have it delivered by normal means. Also I wonder if there's going to be a surcharge for extra fast delivery by drone. That would tend to make the deliveries by drone only those that really need the speed.

    7. Re:Delivery to your BACK yard. by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Alternatively, they can have a smaller drone trailing the delivery drone.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  15. Re:People freaking out by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You must not know very many pre-teen and teen-age boys...they are pretty destructive. I know I was; I almost burned my house down a few times, we would shoot each other with BB guns, make our own "melee weapons" our of random metal pieces and fight in the back yard, toilet paper / egg people's houses, and other assorted madness. If drones had been flying around we most certainly have taken shots at them.

  16. Two words: by Registered+Coward+v2 · · Score: 1

    Barrage Ballon

    --
    I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.
  17. What if someone shoots at one? by dwillden · · Score: 1

    The Response? What if someone shoots at a truck. Murder verses shooing down a drone. Vast difference in crime. Plus the Trucks are on established travel routes that only cross private property via established rights of way (roads).

    For an idea of what they are trying to replace, go find your local UPS distro center. See how many Package cars (UPS calls em cars) leave between 8 and 9 am each morning. Now multiple that by say 300 and you have an idea of off peak season flights (off peak average package car has around 500 items of which a large percentage are amazon packages). Come Christmas time, up that to over 700 items per car so say 400 or so Amazon packages. Now add in the packages sent via FedEx and USPS.

    Yes Amazon would space those out over the course of a day, and not all those packages that are from Amazon are under 5 lbs. But that's still several thousand drone flights every day in your average UPS distro center delivery area. In Utah the Salt Lake City metro area (about 1 million people) is serviced by three centers all at one location. At Christmas peak season that's over 300 cars. Just one center will deliver 70k packages a day. And then there are people like me, I live less than a mile from a civilian airport and about two miles from an Air Force Base, no drone deliveries for me. This is a pipe dream. No city is going to want swarms of Amazon drones filling the skies everyday.

    --
    I'm too lazy to compose a creative sig.
    1. Re:What if someone shoots at one? by jez9999 · · Score: 1

      Or what happens when one of these things has an engine failure and crashes down on someone's head, or causes a traffic accident? Pretty bad PR and I presume Amazon will be financially liable.

      --
      == Jez ==
      Do you miss Firefox? Try Pale Moon.
    2. Re:What if someone shoots at one? by samwichse · · Score: 1

      200-400' altitude is an established right-of-way.

    3. Re:What if someone shoots at one? by dwillden · · Score: 1

      One that property owners will dispute. An invisible right of way is far different from a paved roadway.

      --
      I'm too lazy to compose a creative sig.
  18. Re:until the thieves steal the drone by dwillden · · Score: 1

    Maybe because every Christmas every neighborhood is full of enterprising thieves cruising the neighborhoods looking for packages to pick up.

    --
    I'm too lazy to compose a creative sig.
  19. Re: Yes! Porch Theft Problem Solved! by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

    Woof woof!! *crunch crunch*

    --
    Life is not for the lazy.
  20. GPS can't find my house as it is... by Psychofreak · · Score: 1

    My address is off by more than 1/4 mile in gps, google maps, google earth, and mapquest. Truly awful.

    Getting regular deliveries is sometimes a problem especially since I am on a road named with a SOUTH at the end and the same road exists in my zipcode as a NORTH! My house number exists on the north too, although there is no structure there.

    Now a computer is going to get this right? I am slightly skeptical.

    Phil

    --
    Laugh, it's good for you!
  21. Re:Never by 110010001000 · · Score: 2

    These aren't even 50% risk technology. Trees, overhead wires, buildings. You can't make it work.

  22. Front yard? by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

    I'm curious about the feasibility of front yards combined with the 10 mile limit.

    As the population density increases, yard size decreases. Vast swathes of London do not have drone accessible front yards, for example, even in full sized houses. I presume they've crunched the numbers and found that it's feasible in some places (I don't imagine they've missed such an obvious thing). I'm curious about where it would work.

    In the area I live in, even the full sized houses (with a few exceptions) have small front yards, about 3 wheely bins deep and the width of the house. Compounding matters they ll have a front wall or hedge, the road is weakly tree lined and there are telegraph poles stringing roof-height wires across the road. This is somewhat typical of the Greater Loondon area.

    I'm sort of imaginging suburban America (even with large houses, a lot of houses fit in a 10 mile radius), but that's mostly what I know from film and TV where people seem to have large, treeless, obstacle free front yards. My time in the US didn't involve the 'burbs in any way, so I don't know.

    Any dwellers of such regions care to comment?

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
    1. Re:Front yard? by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      How about suction cups? The drone just lands horizontally, sticks to your window and then knocks. You open the window and take the package.

    2. Re:Front yard? by jhecht · · Score: 1

      Inner US suburbs have similar problems, 50x100 foot lots, older houses have minimal setbacks from the street (10-15 feet), and a thicket of overhead utility wires. Plus trees and hedges. The big issue is going to be how accurately can the drones be maneuvered and how well can they "see" overhead wires and other obstructions. The last I heard, military UAVs had to avoid areas with overhead wires; they could see the poles, but not the wires.

    3. Re:Front yard? by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

      Or just hovers outside your window.... how long before the peeping toms just attach packages to the drone with the camera to make it look legit?

      --
      My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
  23. Re:Never by OhPlz · · Score: 1

    We ride around in metal cages with flammable gasoline and electric wiring on roads that may be wet or even ice covered, all throughout populated areas.

  24. Awkward interactions with the neighbors by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1

    "Hey, John. The Amazon drone crashed again. Here; I think this is the dildo you were expecting."

    1. Re:Awkward interactions with the neighbors by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      Oh, hi Steve. Yes that's the dildo I ordered, thank you. It's a gift for your wife.

  25. Re:How will this work for my flat (apartment)? by Holi · · Score: 1

    It will work for suburbs and gated communities.

    --
    Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
  26. Geocache by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    I look forward to following my GPS to the coordinates my package was actually delivered at, probably a nearby field. Should add an extra thrill to getting packages.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  27. How do they fail? by quantaman · · Score: 1

    Drones don't last forever, how do they expect them to leave service? Are they going to throw old but functional drones on the scrap heap? Wait until they don't start and are too hard to repair?

    What proportion are going to end up falling from the sky over populated areas and how dangerous are those going to be?

    --
    I stole this Sig
    1. Re:How do they fail? by ibpooks · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I'm sure the same way any fleet of other vehicles is maintained. Repair it until it no longer meets serviceability standard, then part it out or scrap it. How is this any different than if a tire on a UPS truck blows out sending the truck careening into oncoming traffic? They do a reasonable amount of preventative maintenance to ensure a level of usefulness and safety, but occasionally a machine breaks and it could potentially hurt someone when it fails -- just like every other aspect of our lives. I know I'd rather be hit by a 55 pound out-of-control drone than a 10,000 pound out-of-control truck. Even still, I would imagine that a drone AI could be programmed to crash into trees or empty green space or some other reasonably safe emergency landing sites in the event of failure.

    2. Re:How do they fail? by neilo_1701D · · Score: 2

      We pretty much know how these things will fail. Batteries are only good for so many discharge / recharge cycles, so simple counting can tell you when to dump a battery (note that disposing of LiPo batteries can be an environmental nightmare if not done properly). Motor and ESC failure is known but tends to happen on spin-up (these machines are not racing quads, so there shouldn't be the huge instantaneous current draws that a racer needs). The biggest single point of in-flight failure is propellers: you simply expect to have an in-flight failure at some point in time (hence responsible quad operators avoid areas where their machine dropping out of the sky will hurt someone).

      Conversely, a quality frame will simply last and last (unless you're smashing it into things). If Amazon had an aggressive maintenance schedule for their fleet (batteries every x flights; propellers every y flights or if situations warrant it; motors / ESC's every z flights) then the frame becomes a multi-year investment.

      Even with all of this, there are going to be in-flight failures that can't be predicted. It's a question of how many failures per thousand flights, and given the swarm of drones Amazon seem to be dreaming of, is the number going to result in a monthly failure, a weekly failure or a daily failure?

    3. Re:How do they fail? by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      I would imagine that a drone AI could be programmed to crash into trees or empty green space

      If you think that's going to be a bad day for the drone, wait until it tries to crash into Hulk.

    4. Re:How do they fail? by quantaman · · Score: 1

      I'm sure the same way any fleet of other vehicles is maintained. Repair it until it no longer meets serviceability standard, then part it out or scrap it. How is this any different than if a tire on a UPS truck blows out sending the truck careening into oncoming traffic?

      The truck is already on the ground and the vast majority of failures leave it there.

      Trucks are also much more expensive and contain even more valuable human drivers, this creates a much bigger incentive to keep things working safely. There's also more opportunity for the human driver to mitigate mechanical failures.

      They do a reasonable amount of preventative maintenance to ensure a level of usefulness and safety, but occasionally a machine breaks and it could potentially hurt someone when it fails -- just like every other aspect of our lives. I know I'd rather be hit by a 55 pound out-of-control drone than a 10,000 pound out-of-control truck. Even still, I would imagine that a drone AI could be programmed to crash into trees or empty green space or some other reasonably safe emergency landing sites in the event of failure.

      The 55 lb drone could do quite a bit of damage if it hits you in the head or falls into traffic and startles drivers.

      As for maintenance a lot of businesses operate very close to the margin, sometimes in the red. They're going to save money everywhere they can, this includes doing the absolute minimum maintenance and running every drone until complete failure, it just becomes a question of how they fail.

      It might be that the "fall from the sky" failure turns out to be rare enough to not be a concern, but it seems like people are simply overlooking the issue which could become a major hazard.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    5. Re:How do they fail? by ibpooks · · Score: 1

      The truck is already on the ground and the vast majority of failures leave it there.

      Does it matter? Many, many people are also on the ground in the proximity of streets, so if it goes wild it is still likely to hit pedestrians and vehicles. Drones could feasibly avoid busy streets by taking routes over rooftops for example; trucks simply cannot thereby forcing failure modes where people, cars and trucks collide.

      Trucks are also much more expensive and contain even more valuable human drivers, this creates a much bigger incentive to keep things working safely. There's also more opportunity for the human driver to mitigate mechanical failures.

      Agreed on the value disparity, but it seems to be in line with the opportunity for the vehicle to cause damage. Absolute worse case is a drone hits a person on the head and kills them, but statistically those odds have to be remote compared to other non-fatal injuries or property damage -- certainly when compared to the opportunity for injury and property destruction caused by a truck. The human driver also provides a significant failure mode (medical problem, distraction, driver error), which I suspect is a much larger risk than the small chance the driver could use to avert accidents after a mechanical failure.

      As for maintenance a lot of businesses operate very close to the margin, sometimes in the red. They're going to save money everywhere they can, this includes doing the absolute minimum maintenance and running every drone until complete failure, it just becomes a question of how they fail.

      True, but doesn't that also suggest that is the current operating mode for truck fleets? Isn't it overall better to have vehicles with less kinetic energy, even when poorly maintained, from a safety point of view?

    6. Re:How do they fail? by Jack+Griffin · · Score: 1

      The human driver also provides a significant failure mode...

      And some untested, unproven pie in the sky idea doesn't? You are comparing something real with something imaginary. These things don't exist, and until they do, you can't just assume the best case scenario to make your fantasy sound more appealing.

    7. Re:How do they fail? by samwichse · · Score: 1

      Keep in mind their drone prototype is a hybrid plane too... it should be able to glide on power loss.

  28. Re:until the thieves steal the drone by Holi · · Score: 1

    UPS has a driver who can report the theft to the police and possibly identify the crook.

    --
    Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
  29. Re:Security... by Holi · · Score: 1

    what kind of fires are you going to put out with 5lbs of water?

    --
    Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
  30. Re:Never by ibpooks · · Score: 2

    You mean sort of like 10,000 lb brown steel vans with whirring metal parts and a large payload of flammable fuel piloted by a rushed/distracted operator speeding through populated areas while looking for addresses, backing out of driveways and turning rapidly?

  31. Re:Security... by ibpooks · · Score: 1

    I'm sure exactly the same way other aircraft do: someone monitors FAA bulletins and enters no-fly zones into some sort of map software. With even the slightest bit of technology there's no reason the FAA couldn't issue no-drone-fly instructions directly to a public database that any drone could query.

  32. Re:Thief alert by phantomfive · · Score: 1

    Amazon will just stop delivering by drone to neighborhoods where too many thefts happen.
    If only a few thefts happen, they will re-deliver, like happens now when packages get lost (annoyingly common with their new courier service)

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  33. Easy: just like flying cars by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 1

    >> How Amazon's Drone Deliveries Will Work

    Easy: just like flying cars. And just as realistic.

    1. Re:Easy: just like flying cars by Jack+Griffin · · Score: 1

      >> How Amazon's Drone Deliveries Will Work

      Easy: just like flying cars. And just as realistic.

      Agree, and I can't understand how otherwise normal people can believe such bullshit will ever see the light of day.
      There are so many unsolved issues with the concept it's not funny.

  34. Will not work in urban areas by prefec2 · · Score: 1

    Most houses around here have four to six stories with 8 to 18 flats. A drone could only deliver to the entrance of the house. That, however, is directly on the sidewalk. Every pedestrian will be able to take it away or accidently kick it or fall over it. This is at best a solution for urban areas where no robberies take place.

    1. Re:Will not work in urban areas by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

      I don't see why they couldn't deliver to your balcony...

      --
      My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
    2. Re: Will not work in urban areas by prefec2 · · Score: 1

      Most buildings do not habe balconies. Furthermore, close to fasades there is a lot if turbulence. I find the solution with special post boxes in the neighborhood much more practical. I can walk there and pick my stuff up 24/7.

  35. Re:How will this work for my flat (apartment)? by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

    No he did not.

    And you really need to wake up now, you are in grave danger.

    Signed,
    The Doctor.

  36. Re:This is at odds with by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

    I guess you could either have a 3D printer delivered by drone or print a drone with your 3D printer.

  37. a stone's throw from by bugs2squash · · Score: 1

    You don't use the drone to deliver the packages silly, you put them up to survey wind speed/direction and identify the target then fire the packages from a canon on the top of the truck or you drop the package from 10,000' and use the drone to operate the tiny cardboard control surfaces and deploy the package's parachute.

    The package itself makes a doorbell noise when it lands.

    --
    Nullius in verba
    1. Re:a stone's throw from by samwichse · · Score: 1

      UpEx FTW!

  38. Re:until the thieves steal the drone by Jayfar · · Score: 1

    Does UPS have a problem with people following their big brown trucks around and grabbing packages? I don't think so.

    Actually exactly that has been happening, according to some recent reports in my section of Philadelphia.

  39. Skeet shooting with prizes by Red+Crown · · Score: 1

    To quote Flounder from Animal House: "Oh boy, is this great!"

  40. avoid hitting your kid playing on porch? by peter303 · · Score: 1

    I've heard of almost no drones outfitting with the full avoidance capabilities of a self-driving car.

  41. Amazon has set up holding offices for universities by peter303 · · Score: 1

    University mailrooms arent set up to cope with hundred of boxes students are ordering. So they are partnering with businesses on universities to help them do this. Large apartment complexes have the same complaint. One US chain is refusign to hold packages at their admin office.

  42. they are looking for CHEAPER shipping by peter303 · · Score: 1

    I read Amazon is considering buying an existing shipping fleet like UPS or building one of their own. They get burned every other Christmas by insufficient capacity. Drones are another option which may or may not be cheaper.

  43. Re:Never by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

    really?

    So you think that if automobiles weren't invented, we would have gone strait for the multi-passenger mass transit vehicle and nobody would have thought to make these vehicles smaller?

    Perhaps you meant trains.... well, we had those long before cars and even used them in cities... but the cities weren't better off for it.

    As a matter of fact, the green areas in cities we have today is mostly from rail properties being converted back to natural spaces again.

    --
    My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
  44. Re: Never by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

    I am sure that you are wrong.

    There is a big market for inexpensive, fast curb-side delivery.

    I suppose you also think that self driving cars will not ever (within 25 years) come to fruition either...

    --
    My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
  45. Re:Thief alert by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

    They will no doubt deal with it the same way UPS does: trial and error.

    UPS pretty much defaults to driver releasing packages for residences EXCEPT in areas where excessive theft occurs. In those areas, all deliveries are signed for.

    I am sure Amazon will do the same thing. "Sorry, your area is not eligible for drone delivery"

    --
    My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
  46. Re:until the thieves steal the drone by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

    I've never had a package stolen, and they're often left at my door for a day. Just don't use the service in thief-dense areas.

    --
    This space intentionally left blank
  47. Re:People freaking out by mjwx · · Score: 1

    You must not know very many pre-teen and teen-age boys...they are pretty destructive. I know I was; I almost burned my house down a few times, we would shoot each other with BB guns, make our own "melee weapons" our of random metal pieces and fight in the back yard, toilet paper / egg people's houses, and other assorted madness. If drones had been flying around we most certainly have taken shots at them.

    Ooooooh Kay.

    The drone delivery market may not be successful in Bumfuck, Arkansas but that doesn't mean it wont be successful in civilised countries.

    A bigger issue for Amazon is regulation. Airspace is heavily regulated, especially in major cities where an errant drone can cause a lot of chaos. Deliveries to countryside England wont be much of an issue, but central London? Where do they intend to land it, on the helmet of a bobby being urinated into by a pregnant lady?

    --
    Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
  48. Re:How do they fail? Fire! by TimSSG · · Score: 1

    Drones have batteries; over charging the batteries might result in a fire failure mode. Starting a fire is the most likely why I can think of to cause multiple deaths via a delivery drone without adding on purpose caused deaths. Tim S.

  49. Re:People freaking out by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

    LOL. I agree, I think it will be quite successful. Amazon's biggest issue is going to be the quagmire of different laws in different areas; something the FAA is running into now. But after reading TFA, their not even talking about anything outside the US yet.

  50. My guess on pricing by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

    In the short term I expect they will charge the same amount for drone delivery as for same-day delivery by human drivers, with perhaps a short term offering of free or reduced rate shipping to get people to try it. In the long term it will depend on how the costs shake out; if it turns out to be costlier than dispatching drivers they will charge extra for right-now delivery, if it's cheaper they will use drones for all the same-day deliveries that are within the weight limit.