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Bloomberg Predicts EVs Cheaper than IC Engine Cars Within 10 Years (computerworld.com)
Lucas123 writes: With the price of lithium-ion batteries continuing to plummet, already dropping 65% since 2010, electric vehicles will become cheaper to own by the mid-2020s, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The report also forecasts that sales of EVs will hit 41 million by 2040, up from 462,000 in 2015. By 2040, EVs will make up 35% of new light-duty vehicle sales, even if the price of crude oil goes back up from $33 today to $70 in the future. The adoption of EVs will displace about 13 million barrels of oil per day by 2040, when the clean-energy cars represent about one-quarter of cars on the road.
EV batteries last a couple of thousand cycles at the most. Which might be 5 or 10 years worth of driving. After that they are recycled into stainless steel pans and other items that aren't batteries. It seems that Lithium ion batteries are harder to recycle back into batteries than for example lead acid or nickel iron (both impractical for powering cars).
So instead of eating into the world's supply of hydrocarbons we're eating into the world's supply of Lithium and a couple of other elements that there isn't all that much of once you start producing 10s of millions of cars. Great progress.
Of course there are ways of getting these metals in plentiful supply from seawater, asteroids and other sources but as with super-efficient solar panels, they're always 10 years away.
The problem there is shit motor controllers, not the battery chemistry.
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Went to Catalina Island for a few days this week and on the way there, saw a sign that is repeated on this website: "Due to the lithium ion batteries Hoverboards are ILLEGAL to transport upon Catalina Express." Disregarding cameras, cell phones, watches, pacemakers, blah small electronics etc, anyone who has been to Catalina knows cars are scarce there (it's a 30 year waiting list to get a car permit) and everyone drives golf carts - which more and more use large lithium ion batteries now. I thought the sign to be really funny, yet sad (obviously). Hoverboards aren't banned because of the lithium-ion batteries, they're banned because they're 90degrees off and they're not hovering. Errr...they're banned because they were very cheaply manufactured, and have safety problems.
I'm a libertarian, who will most likely vote for Trump
Fuck you, asshole.
I don't respond to AC's.
I'm just glad a petrol powered car has never caught fire before.
- Chuq
The Nissan Leaf is one of the cheapest cars you can get that can blow away most other cars when accelerating from 0 to "legal in-town speed."
.)
If your commute involves stop lights and changing lanes, it is super fun to drive and a bargain. The general public still seems oblivious to its acceleration, which adds to the fun when you quietly blow past them when they try to cut you off in a "funny looking car" (while their ICE wails in futile protest. .
Sdelat' Ameriku velikoy Snova!
That's the free market for you. Or don't you believe that a supplier has the right to sell their product at whatever price they wish, even if it is just to drive a competitor out of business? Business is business, right?
"Dumping" is just another way to say, "cut prices".
Or maybe you believe there should be laws regulating the price at which commodities can be sold?
You are welcome on my lawn.
You've gotta admit, people who will blame absolutely anything and everything wrong in their lives on Obama and the SJWs are nothing if not consistent.
"I have to vote for the fascist flim-flam man, because Obama and the SJWs have just pushed me too far"
There must be some small part of you that feels ashamed.
You are welcome on my lawn.
Fracking technology can be profitable as low as $36 a barrel, and the technology is still improving. So don't expect prices to go back to 2008 levels; they won't for a long time.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
"Dumping" is just another way to say, "cut prices".
"Dumping" means selling below the cost of production, usually with the aim of driving competitors out of the market.
Dumping is hard to prove, and most accusations of dumping are just whining about competition. Saudi Arabia is NOT dumping because their cost of production is extremely low. They are still making a profit on every barrel they sell. Their objectives are more geopolitical than economic anyway, aimed at Iran and Russia, with Venezuela and American frackers as collateral damage.
On this site IC typically means integrated circuit instead of internal combustion. The former sounds pretty good, an engine with no moving parts.
I think it's doable actually, wrap the "rails" from a maglev train around the inside of the wheels. Use SCRs to electronically control the electro-magnetic field for propulsion... and there you go, and integrated circuit engine with no moving parts except the wheels.
I've taken a few multi thousand mile trips in my Tesla at a total cost of $4 for electricity. Are you telling me that this was all a dream and the thousands of worldwide Supercharger stations don't exist?
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
I think it's ridiculous that people have to worry about somebody policing who they can and can't marry; I think the war on drugs has ruined many more lives than it could ever hope to save and should be stopped; I think the death penalty is wrong. Point in fact, on most issues, I lean left. However, with the constant childish name-calling, spite-filled, intolerant, unadulterated hate that comes from the extreme left-wing in this country, I would never ever identify myself as a "progressive". What the left has become is to spit in the face of what true liberalism is about and many rational nominally left leaning people don't want anything to do with it.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
To be fair, it's possible to put out a petrol fire. A lithium battery fire on the other hand, there's pretty much fuck all you can do about it.
I've taken a few multi thousand mile trips in my Tesla at a total cost of $4 for electricity. Are you telling me that this was all a dream and the thousands of worldwide Supercharger stations don't exist?
It's more dream then reality. You are ignoring one, very important point: Most EV's can't use that Supercharger network
Lot's of Li-powered cars already have. I don't understand why you Republicans hide the truth about how dangerous they are. Your kind puts profit ahead of people.
Okay, as a Republican, I'm sort of torn on this. Yes, I want the environment to be destroyed and for the world to choke in smog, but I also want to lovingly protect our billionaire businessmen and cartels who are producing these ultra-dangerous battery powered cars that may catch on fire. (nice!) The probably is that these things might inadvertently save the environment. (noooooooo!)
Maybe we can figure out a way for these electric cars to burn oil in some secondary capacity... Then they'd be perfect!
Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
There's a difference between those excellent points and blaming "Obama and the SJWs" for the milk going bad.
Donald Trump is not the outcome of leftist policies. He's the result of a major political party riding the tiger of talk radio shock jocks who are all trying to be more horrible than the next one and calling it "talking tough". It's the result of the Southern Strategy, it's the result of creating a victim mentality among white working class people, convincing them that they're being oppressed. It's the result of a cheapening of discourse and the stoking of irrational fears - of xenophobia and plain, old bigotry. It's the result of the "bully effect", where weak-minded people feel empathy toward the strong papa-figure, as long as he sounds sufficiently like a hard-ass. It's the result of a fascism that's been dormant in the US for over a century and a half and really started to flower in 1980. The 20th century was stained with rivers of blood from what happens when that sort of ugliness takes hold in a portion of a society.
Don't blame some stupid college kids or feminists for the rise of the first candidate in decades that's been embraced by actual white supremacists and Nazis.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-...
You are welcome on my lawn.
Have you ever tried to put out a carbequeue?
I don't think you've even seen a car on fire to think you can put it out - fire departments don't even try. If there is somebody inside the car, they'll work at getting them out, but they generally just keep people back and wait for the fire to go out.
Mimetics Inc. Twitter
They absolutely do try to put petrol car fires out, because they melt the tarmac underneath, and end up needing the road to be resurfaced if they don't get put out. They're relatively easy to put out - just need to throw foam at it.
Meanwhile, with lithium:
1) The fire burns hotter (around 600C rather than 450-500ish for petrol)
2) There's basically nothing you *can* put on it to put it out. Water will react with it, nitrogen will react with it, CO2 won't smother it, foam will react with it, dry powder can't smother it. About the only way you can put out a lithium fire is to bury it in sand, and that requires several dump trucks to somehow get near a 600C fire, and even then, you get a big blob of glass to clear up off a highway.
Fuck you, asshole.
(Score:3, Insightful)
Fascinating!
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
I'm not all that big a fan of EVs, but I feel compelled to mention that gasoline and diesel powered cars have been known to catch on fire as well.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
I've taken a few multi thousand mile trips in my Tesla at a total cost of $4 for electricity. Are you telling me that this was all a dream and the thousands of worldwide Supercharger stations don't exist?
It will be wonderful if it all comes true some day, but for now it is an expensive dream...
A car that doesn't make money, being sold for crazy high luxury prices, being recharged on "free" superchargers that future cars won't get for "free", yea, it is a dream for now...
> Also, what will television shows do with electric vehicles?
I imagine that for the first three or four decades of general EV use, "Hollywood" will do exactly what it does with conventional vehicles. Load the vehicle up with pyrotechnics and touch them off at the dramatically appropriate moment. Eventually, they may work out something else, maybe even something more realistic. But we're talking entertainment here, not reality.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Saudi Arabia thus has complete control about the oil price because they can sell at prices that would bankrupt everyone else and still make a profit. And Saudi Arabia waited long enough for enough companies to invest much money into shale oil and only then lowered the oil price to drive them out of competition when much of the money was burnt, but not much revenue yet generated. Investors for the next future will be very wary to ever invest in alternative oil sources again.
And the oppressing class is convincing them that they're really being oppressed by those dark-complexioned people over there. And feminists, of course, because nothing says "jack-booted oppressor" like some college girl who doesn't shave her armpits.
When Donald Trump says, "I love the poorly educated", he gave a glimpse into the mindset of the people who mean us absolutely no good.
http://www.independent.co.uk/n...
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You Hundred Percent Red Blood Americans have an entire cable news network dedicated to spreading your bullshit, and here you are upset about a few mouthy "SJWs"? How about you turn off Fox Propaganda and listen to what some actual "SJWs" have to say, instead of what Fox Propaganda says about them.
One, it *is* bullshit. If hard work got you ahead, then everyone who toils behind a McDonald's counter would be a millionaire. And these days, studying and bettering yourself may only get you four years older and deeper in debt, assuming you can find the time after working two jobs for bullshit pay. Donald Trump got four bankruptcies. Many a former student would like just one.
Two, they're *tenets*, unless they're paying rent. And if you have to call something a tenet, it's probably bullshit.
Ooh, moderator points! Five more idjits go to Minus One Hell!
Delendae sunt RIAA, MPAA et Windoze
Class D fire extinguishers are holy shit toxic and very expensive.
So are standard hydrocarbon extinguishing foams. The ones that work anyway. The synthetic shit can't handle any level of alcohol including the 10% ethanol in your fuel tank.
They're relatively easy to put out - just need to throw foam at it.
I see you've never put out a car fire before. The wonderful thing about car fires is that a car is a very three dimensional object. Foam's use case is to smother a fire and prevent oxygen which makes a car pretty much the worst case scenario for a foam extinguisher. Also given the length of time and amount of foam a typical extinguisher can expel you're left with only one choice in a fully engulfed car fire scenario: Call the fire brigade and have them bring foam injecting branches and them cover the car in a metric shitton of foam. Real bonus points if the mag wheels catch fire in the process.
The idea that a lithium battery with it's VERY limited amount of fuel is harder to put out than the petrol car fire is absurd. Lithium actually has the nice benefit that by the time the fire department shows up they can just put water on it. It burns very bloody quickly and while a litre of fuel in a softdrink bottle can burn for a good hour a lithium battery pack the same size will vapourise itself within a minute or two.
Oh and lithium can be put out with Class-D, but it has the same problem in a car as foam does. It doesn't work very well on 3D surfaces, and doesn't provide any cooling so fires will re-ignite themselves after you put them out when they come in contact with air again.
As you can all see, I didn't imagine this mentality. Obama caused Trump by exhorting people to hope. Oh, and Reverend Wright, who is his chief of staff.
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We are. But then there are alternatives - there is oil and there is "oil".
The "peak oil" projection is based on the observations of M. King Hubbert showing a characteristic production curve of most any limited resource under intensive extraction, most particularly (but not exclusively) oil.
It is a near-universal production curve he found for oil wells, oil fields, and oil districts. At every level on the scale of production (which is the sum of all the production curves of its components) the same production curve is seen. So conclusion is that this will scale up to the largest scale also, the entire world.
Which is absolutely true - with some important caveats. The peak curve applies to one specific resource - liquid oil, "conventional oil" as it is called. And the world market did in fact hit the predicted peak of this resource already, around 2010 (the 2008 crash has sort of confused the situation by suppressing oil consumption for some years).
Now about those caveats. The entire world represents a different scenario from any part of it, no matter how large that part. When the world runs out of a resource the price shoots through the roof, something that does not happen on smaller scales. This creates, in a very real sense, a new resource - expensive conventional oil - that did not exist as a resource before (this is how resources are actually measured, reserves at a particular price point). This makes a new larger Hubbert curve that remains to be climbed to its peak, and so on. This flattens the peak into a gently down-sloping plateau, rather than the more precipitous decline that the raw curve suggests. And in addition to expensive conventional oil, new "oils" are created. "Condensate fluids" that formerly were not diverted into the petroleum pipeline, after some reforming, now end up there. New very non-conventional liquid petroleum sources start getting tapped: "fracking" oil, and tar sands particularly. These were not represented in the original conventional oil curve at all.
The situation we are now in is that there is a strong short-to-medium term coupling between price and supply. As the price of "oil" goes up, more wells restart, increasing supply very quickly, while more exploitation of the expensive oils starts up again, increasing supply longer term. This creates a quasi-natural ceiling on oil prices, and consequently a stable supply, for a change.
Though the Saudis control the price of oil, and can shut down frackers almost at will, it depletes their limited resource faster, at a lower price. So there is a limit to how far they can push this.
Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
Above post is better if read out loud in the pregnant cop from the movie Fargo's voice.
dontyouknow.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'