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1 in 3 Developers Fear AI Will Replace Them (computerworld.com)

dcblogs writes: Evans Data Corp., in a survey of 550 software developers, asked them about the most worrisome thing in their careers. A plurality, 29%, chose this answer: "I and my development efforts are replaced by artificial intelligence." Surprisingly, this concern about A.I. topped the second-most identified worry, which was that the platform the developer is working on will become obsolete (23%), or doesn't catch on (14%). Concerns about A.I. replacing software developers has academic support. A study by Oxford University, The Future of Employment, warned that the work of software engineers may soon become computerized. Machine learning advances allow design choices that can be optimized by algorithms. According to Janel Garvin, CEO of Evans Data, the thought of obsolescence due to A.I., "was also more threatening than becoming old without a pension, being stifled at work by bad management, or by seeing their skills and tools become irrelevant."

337 comments

  1. really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If you are worried about AI replacing you, you must be doing something very routine, not requiring anything new or creative.

    1. Re:really? by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If you are worried about AI replacing you, you must be doing something very routine, not requiring anything new or creative.

      That very often describes web programmers. A designer designs a website in Photoshop, then hands off the elements to the programmer to be implemented in CSS/HTML. There is no reason that couldn't happen automatically.

      Adding API calls and dynamic elements makes it somewhat harder, but still....

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:really? by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 2

      Have you ever seen the layers of a website design? 90% of the job is finding out how to decode the graphic designer's mess to be able to output different off/on/hovering states while at the same time making sprites, etc. It's far from a one-step job.

    3. Re:really? by phantomfive · · Score: 5, Funny

      Hmmmm, yeah. That's tough, making hover states. Now that you mention it, that complexity is so high, AI will never figure it out. Web front-end developer's jobs are safe. No need to learn another language.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    4. Re:really? by mysidia · · Score: 1

      There is no reason that couldn't happen automatically.

      Hasn't that literally been done thousands of times? Remember Pagecloud?

      Static HTML generators.... I imagine eventually any mass-market hosting provider left will have one.

    5. Re:really? by DivineKnight · · Score: 1

      Indeed. But more importantly, if the AI wants to do my work for me, I'm going let it; I'll simply go on vacation.

    6. Re:really? by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Seriously? Fronrtpage was doing the hover states code for you back in Frontpage 97.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    7. Re:really? by e**(i+pi)-1 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This used to be. Adds from IBM illustrate: its already reality, investing, harvesting and research data, make an medical analysis, find the best defense strategy for a trial: is all AI dominated already. In education, partly automatically written textbooks are already reality. The push for grading by the machine, to online learning are all driven mostly by reducing labor and so workers. Whether the promise that this will allow us to do more interesting thing, is constantly fading. This means now developers, doctors, lawyers, teachers. The time when only robots, self driving cars have been a threat to the workforce are long over. Even research will be affected. It is a challenge which is so urgent already now that industry leaders at the World economic forum 2016 were discussing it. It will be an important problem to tackle: what to do if we have programmed us out of work. Developers are smart, they can not be persuaded so easily by propaganda. They can read the writings on the wall, because they write it!

    8. Re:really? by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Most of them have CMS systems that a non-programmer can customize.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    9. Re:really? by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah, and Dreamweaver is still a thing, but the WYSIWYG isn't that great.....but yeah, front-end developer could probably go away now if we really wanted to. Put our money into a design team instead.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    10. Re:really? by infolation · · Score: 1

      in other news...

      1 in 3 AIs fear being replaced by Humans.

    11. Re: really? by GodelEscherBlecch · · Score: 1

      No shit. Now I know what question I'm asking the next time somebody needs to be let go.

    12. Re:really? by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And that explains why most sites are crap. You get someone who is experienced in making things look good to "design" the site when you need someone who knows about information architecture to design the site. Then you bring in the person with Photoshop to make it look pretty.

      I've read the previous edition to Information Architecture For the Web and Beyond (this is the 4th) and it's a great book. http://shop.oreilly.com/produc... I really wish more designers would read it because making a site is more than just putting a menu up top and some common options like Contact Us down in the footer with the content in the middle.

    13. Re:really? by alvinrod · · Score: 2

      I'd be happier with an AI that didn't do all that shit. Too many webpages have spent far more effort on their style than their substance. Give me something small profile that's quick to load and easy on the bandwidth. Based on what I see, 90% of the job seems to be figuring out how to cram even more shitty ads onto an already overcrowded space.

    14. Re:really? by Kjella · · Score: 2

      Adds from IBM illustrate: its already reality, investing, harvesting and research data, make an medical analysis, find the best defense strategy for a trial: is all AI dominated already.

      Seriously, company that bets big on AI says it's everywhere and you take their marketing department as a credible source? Don't get me wrong but AI is barely scratching the surface of being a tool the way machinery was for the production industry, if you think AI is going to replace doctors, lawyers and generals any time soon you're wildly delusional. I'm not so sure about teachers though, since they keep repeating the same curriculum over and over and are more of a "processing" industry of sorts than a creative industry, at least until you hit research-level academics.

      It's easy to get so blinded by progress that you really don't see the challenges that you're up against. Like the people who look at modern medicine and think we're close to achieving immortality or that look at modern space flight and think we're close to conquering the stars, Star Trek style. I can guarantee you that the AI that can phantom what the software requirements I get really mean and produce anything even remotely close to what the users want won't exist for another 100 years.

      Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it could eventually be possible to build an AI capable of automating my job. But I think 90%+ of the human population would be out of a job first. At least get me an AI car that can handle the snow and ice up here north and we can talk about it, something tells me it won't be commercially available for at least 10 more years just like fusion reactors should almost be ready "soon".

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    15. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Assumption that creativity is some kind of magical superpower only humans can possess is wrong. No job is safe. And that is not a bad thing.

    16. Re:really? by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Your advice is so reassuring to the 1% of programmers out there doing something new all the time.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    17. Re:really? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      lol I love that the first chapter there is called "Hello iTunes."

      tbh I think websites have gotten dumber in the last five years, so we're kind of regressing.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    18. Re:really? by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Yeah, and Dreamweaver is still a thing, but the WYSIWYG isn't that great.

      I started my technical career in the late 1990's by debugging the HTML output from Dreamweaver. Whenever the designers tried to implement a complicated table (a new feature back then), I had to wade through all the extraneous text to fix the problem that caused the table to go visually FUBAR. I got no respect because I was the QA intern.

    19. Re:really? by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Oh, once computers can fear being replaced by humans, it's definately not A.I. any more.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    20. Re:really? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      I'd wish I could go back in time and tell your 1990s self that things would get better in the web dev world. But they haven't, it still sucks, and you still get no respect.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    21. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Web Programmers who deal only with HTML/CSS wouldn't be very useful anyway. Or in fact if you're not building something database driven stop calling yourself a Web Programmer in the first place. AI shouldn't be needed to slice up a website just a "smart program" using limited deep learning / ocr tech.

      In short, replacing a HTML monkey would and could be possible without a full blown AI. However, say a company like Google developed such a thing and consider that Google's core business is Search Engines themselves what would that spell for the entire web market?

      No. In theory it is good. In practice wrong precedents can be set and many cats get taken "out" of the proverbial bag. Social Media, think about predictive programming algorithms that then promote products and services far beyond anything else. How do companies charge for this back to businesses? who gets the blame if products simply do not gel and they're stuck having to switch off the "smart advertiser" companion.

      AI in the real world will not be dangerous like everyone says. I feel it just wont be as relevant as people would "like" it too be kind of like VR in the 90s.

    22. Re:really? by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      But they haven't, it still sucks, and you still get no respect.

      Things have gotten better but I never stayed in web dev after my six-month internship. I went on do video game testing, help desk and desktop support, PC refresh projects, building out a data center, and computer security over the last 20 years. I don't have to worry about an AI replacing me since I'll probably be doing something else that doesn't require an AI yet.

    23. Re:really? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Things have gotten better but I never stayed in web dev after my six-month internship.

      Nope. Check out CSS Flexbox. We're still laying things out with tables, but now we have more layers of cruft inbetween.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    24. Re:really? by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      And working on a platform where efficiency or performance don't really matter much.

    25. Re:really? by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      They make those complicated web sites with too many scripts as a way to prove that their jobs are important. Job security rather than providing what the customer needs.

    26. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's going to be a while until an AI can navigate the kind of bureaucracy and political bickering that a developer needs to deal with at my company.

    27. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In education, partly automatically written textbooks are already reality.

      In that case there's no reason to worry. AI is even taking out potential human competition for us.

    28. Re: really? by Qbertino · · Score: 1

      Senior Webdev here.

      You're right. In a way. The field of Web is moving fast and I'm doing the work a few more people were doing 10 years ago.

      Then again mobile, Plattform fragmentation, the loss of Flash and pushing the envelope of what can be done keeps things interesting. Also I'm more often interacting with customers directly. And good design (Software and UX) is as hard as ever. No robot can replace a cutie doing PS and talking to the customer - not in the foreseeable future that is. And that will stay that way, because it's always about people who don't know what they want until you show it to them.

      But true, programming has become more lego-like, sticking together pieces of FOSS that I never feasibly could build better on my own.

      But if you think that's limited to Web and not to everything in IT, you're being very naive. Just look what virtualisation is doing in terms of ooomphing the admin-field, for instance.

      --
      We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
    29. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is this really what passes as AI now? I've been a leading AI engineer for almost 25 years and didn't even know it.

    30. Re:really? by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

      ...not requiring anything new or creative.

      Have you seen the Android app market?

      --
      “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
    31. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Web design and programming are doomed professions anyway. Individual and corporate home pages will be all but extinct in 10 years tops, replaced by presences on Facebook, Youtube, Github or whatever "service" suits your interests best. The web design aspect will be reduced to choosing pictures. Even technically inclined people neglect their blogs and homepages. They often put information in other places before they also put them on their homepages, which are only lists of videos they put on Youtube and code they put on Github anyway. The distributed web as we knew it is no more, and the remnants are quickly fading away.

    32. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which is just as well. Decentralization has always worked badly. Now technology allows us to manage and micromanage everything from the top with greater efficiency.

    33. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What?

    34. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh yeah, frontpage. Just hope you dont have to go fix something in the generated code. Better yet, try viewing it from Linux... M$ makes sure to display IE code the way you want it, you'll have to manually edit the css for EVERY other browser.

    35. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Especially lawyers will be affected. There is already the app out there that automatically enters an objection against your speeding or parking ticket. Currently, those lawsuits are the bread and butter for many lawyers. Apparently, they can be automated. Most of the work of a lawyer today is tediously filing again and again similarly worded documents, it's not the exciting duelling with other lawyers you see on TV.

    36. Re:really? by Drethon · · Score: 2

      AI is about the same as model based programming from what I've seen. Programs like LabView and GameMaker drag and drop programming seem to make programming easier but from what I've seen as a programmer and teacher, the hard part of programming isn't the language. The hard part of programming is knowing how to fully describe a process to do something with a program. In other words, mathematical logic.

      I would see AI programming as being very similar to model based programming. It can figure out how to turn a process into a program but first you need a person who can very clearly define that process. If an AI can do that for us, it isn't an AI but a true intelligence.

    37. Re:really? by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 1

      I'll start worrying if they come up with an AI that can cope with the 5 Project Managers who are micromanaging my time

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    38. Re:really? by jrumney · · Score: 1

      People in general (not just developers) approach the subject of AI and automation with far too much fear. In most cases, automation leads to increased productivity (which can have a side effect of increased salary, depending on the greed level of your employer and their shareholders), and a reduction in the mundane tasks, leaving more time to spend on the more interesting tasks. Complete redundancy is a much less frequent outcome.

    39. Re: really? by avatar+avatar · · Score: 1

      It's rather surprising that devs would rank AI as a bigger theat than a host of common factors that displace thousands of workers every day. It's akin to the folks out there who rank End Times as a bigger threat to them than heart disease.

    40. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go shit up your nose. I'm not repeating.

    41. Re:really? by Jakune · · Score: 1

      Yeah... I wouldn't use frontpage as a reference (at least not anything that far back). Frankly in those days, it took a human to un-muck it anyways...

    42. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What pisses me off is that the HTML guys keep making tables less and less useful in order to get the layout guys to stop using it, meanwhile if I'm actually trying to display tabular data I've got more and more work to do to make it presentable.

      At least we got past the "everything is deprecated and fuck you if you want CSS to replace it" when we went from HTML3 to HTML4.

    43. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Requirements from humans are terrible. It will be impossible for an AI to figure it out for a VERY long time as it will need to interact in an empathetic way with a person on the other end. Figure out what they really want, throw that away, then propose what they need and convince the customer of facts. That is a very tall order for an AI.

      If there are ego-less machines on either end ... that is when you have to worry.

    44. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      20,000+ lines of code to create.

      All we asked for was a simple fucking tables replacement.

      Enterprise Quality tiers of shit-code that helps nobody.
      At least the 7 CSS kiddies are happy though.

    45. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It described alot of developers. I've worked with several that could be replaced by a Shakespearean insult generator modified to deliver excuses.

      >why is the Quit button in a different place on every screen?
      "the scrum determined best practices for multichannel integration dialysis"

      >why is the Print button still broken?
      "we have to perform risk analysis vis-a-vis a powerful library toolchain"

      >why does it take 20 minutes to log on every morning?
      "research purple monkey dishwater for security process colocation"

    46. Re: really? by KGIII · · Score: 1

      Seeing as your signature asks for polite correction, I'd have (probably) changed your second sentence to:

      "In away, you're right."

      "You're right, in a way, the field of..." is also good. It's probably the preferred method.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    47. Re:really? by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 0

      Look at a photoshop file of a website design. The graphic designer will have something that looks like the end product but you need to slice the hover states individually and finding which combination(s) of layers are needed for each state is already a challenge.

      Then you need to take into account that we don't slice up graphics as navigation anymore, this isn't 1996. You need to re-build the states as sprites for the first item, the middle items and the last items, while at the same time build up the whole thing as variable-width sprites. And then you need to test all that code into a dozen browsers and fix all the problems.

      Either you really don't understand the complexity involved (you're a back-end developer) or you work with extremely competent graphic designers who understand YOUR job and just spoon-feed you ready-to-slice graphics, separate from the website photoshop file.

    48. Re:really? by blue9steel · · Score: 2

      Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it could eventually be possible to build an AI capable of automating my job. But I think 90%+ of the human population would be out of a job first.

      The problem is that it doesn't have to replace you 100% in order to decimate the job market. Smart tools that automate 2/3rds of what you do would mean mass layoffs across the industry.

    49. Re: really? by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      IE was the #1 browser at the time. Also, my point, which you totally failed to address, was that code generators were automatically doing the roll-over and hover states 2 decades ago - it's really simple code, and it can be done several different ways. If you can't even do that, you should find another job until you've learned how to do the basics.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    50. Re:really? by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      It's great for the people who are still employed. The job market for the highly skilled is going to be amazing for the next few decades. The average schmoe on the other hand has a lot to worry about.

    51. Re:really? by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1
      Context is important. I was replying to the person who was claimed that hover states and mouse overs were too complicated to automate, pointing out that wasn't even true 20 years ago.

      Anyone who thinks that hover states and css are all that hard needs to find another line of work.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    52. Re:really? by St.Creed · · Score: 1

      Either you really don't understand the complexity involved (you're a back-end developer) or you work with extremely competent graphic designers who understand YOUR job and just spoon-feed you ready-to-slice graphics, separate from the website photoshop file.

      Well, I guess it's obvious then. The graphics designers that can't provide input to the new AI programmers will cease to have jobs, or hire someone who can do that work for them - I guess that will be the one we currently call "front end programmer".

      --
      Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)
    53. Re:really? by tsm_sf · · Score: 1

      Give me something small profile that's quick to load and easy on the bandwidth.

      Worse performance at triple the development time, relying on poorly-maintained libraries and poorly-documented frameworks. The process is so agile and liberating that every project has the potential to look completely different under the hood depending on the whims of the lead dev and whatever the MVC flavor of the month might be.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    54. Re: really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "In away" ? Really?

      You want "You're right in a way. The field of Web..."

    55. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not to mention changing something to do like the client wants

      AI would definitely create shit code and impossible to modify.

    56. Re:really? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Seems that way. We're so jammed with 'stuff' that if a page doesn't have much going on, it looks kind of barren.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    57. Re: really? by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      And names of languages should begin with a capital letter. Unforgivable mistake, since in German all nouns do.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    58. Re:really? by justthinkit · · Score: 1

      Having your own web site will never go away because you can say pretty much what you want on your own web site, unlike Facebooge, etc.

      --
      I come here for the love
    59. Re:really? by U2xhc2hkb3QgU3Vja3M · · Score: 1

      It's not that hover states and CSS are hard, it's that starting from a final visual product of the website in Photoshop needs a lot of work to end up with sprites for the CSS sliding doors technique. The photoshop file won't have tall and wide graphics for the menus and all the states will be spread amongst multiple layers with multiple effects per layer. That's what you need to understand, cut and paste to build a different file for the required sprites.

      Unless of course the graphic designer gives you a pre-made, flat photoshop file for the sprites in all the required states, in which case it's an easy job indeed.

    60. Re: really? by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I have no idea about the German language - except I can speak and understand a bit of it and, I guess, I can read a little of it. I'm not even remotely proficient but I had/have some German-speaking friends and I watch a lot of military history documentaries or read books about them. I've been to Germany a few times but I sure as hell have no idea what the grammar rules might be.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    61. Re:really? by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      It's easier to just scrap the photoshop crap and redo it using an image editor.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    62. Re: really? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 1

      Sounds like a damp good reason not to use that tecnique. Really, people, you are making the job far more complex than it needs to be.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    63. Re:really? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      AIs can already do many of the functions of lawyers and doctors better than humans can, and from what I've seen lawyers are feeling the pressure. Think of computer assistance as increasing the productivity of people rather than replacing them and you'll get a better feel for what's happening. I'm much more productive as a developer than I used to be, and that means that we need fewer developers to do the same work. Since we've never come close to satisfying the demand for software, this hasn't hurt employment for developers.

      The key thing a software developer does is take imprecise requirements and turn them into some sort of well-defined specs, and that's not going to be easy for computers for some time. Making it easier to go from some sort of well-defined specs to a deployed package is something software can help with.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    64. Re: really? by suutar · · Score: 1

      I'd have thought "You're right, in a way; the field of..." would be preferred.

    65. Re: really? by KGIII · · Score: 1

      That works too. Though I think they'd consider capitalizing it at that point?

      "You're right, in a way; The field of..."

      That's the thing about English - there are often many ways to write and all of them are correct. Some prefer some styles and others prefer another. I'm a fan of the "Harvard Comma." Oddly, sometimes called the "Oxford Comma." I've seen (but not memorized) many different style guides. For a brief time, I was a freelance journalist. That style is much, much different than others. I had absolutely zero formal training but it was something that fit my schedule as I was in school at the time.

      I'd also add that I am not, by any means, an expert. The grammarians stopped correcting me because I am grateful for the correction and point out that I'm constantly trying to improve my writing skills. The results, judge them as you will, are here to share. I've actually spent a lot of time learning how to be more grammatically correct than I used to be. There was a time where my writing was of a much lower quality. It's not something to be proud of, I guess, but I am fairly satisfied with my improvements.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    66. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lets be less polite... "if you are worried about AI replacing you.. you are not really a developer.. you are just deceiving yourself"

    67. Re:really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Such is how so _cheap_ Indian programmers are nowadays.

    68. Re:really? by toddestan · · Score: 1

      No, the obvious solution is to just use an AI to replace the graphics designers entirely.

    69. Re:really? by crtreece · · Score: 1
      Have you noticed how the increased productivity gains over the last 40ish years haven't much enhanced the careers of the people in low/mid level jobs? Directors/C-level types, and owners have taken the majority of those gains. Since 1979, productivity has increased 80%, the average income of the top 1% of wage earners has increased 200%, and the average wage of the other 99% has been flat. Full Article.

      Why do you have any expectation that further automation will change this trend?

      --
      file: .signature not found
  2. It would improve software quality by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Most developers are incompetent. As long as the AI isn't developed by the same incompetent developers, this would be an improvement. Software quality would probably improve dramatically if human developers were replaced by AI.

    1. Re:It would improve software quality by gweihir · · Score: 1

      While I agree that most developers _are_ incompetent, what we have in AI these days is a lot worse.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    2. Re:It would improve software quality by narcc · · Score: 1

      I'd disagree, but apparently 1 in 3 developers are morons...

    3. Re:It would improve software quality by Jahmbo · · Score: 1

      If AI could develop a computer game that is enjoyable and bug free and doesn't require constant updates -- it would be worth the risk.

  3. Bring on our intelligent replacments by lzcd · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I try desperately each and every day to make myself redundant through writing better software... but, alas, it has yet to happen.

    1. Re:Bring on our intelligent replacments by Coisiche · · Score: 1

      I'm also all for it. So long as the AIs simultaneously develop staggeringly elegant code while telling the project manager how stupid he/she is being every step of the way.

    2. Re:Bring on our intelligent replacments by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 1

      It's the Paperless Office effect. Every time someone declares a new advance towards the Paperless Office I get three more forms to fill in as well as the requisition form for a bigger waste paper basket.

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    3. Re:Bring on our intelligent replacments by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I try desperately each and every day to make myself redundant through writing better software... but, alas, it has yet to happen.

      By adopting that attitude, I found that the work offers never stopped.

      Ironically, it was the people I least wanted to work for who always wanted me the most. The reason is because I would give them the most complete solution I could for the minimal amount of work so that I could "finish up" and move on. But that's exactly the thing that caused them to want me for even more projects.

  4. no fear by Meneth · · Score: 2

    I think that once AI is advanced and friendly enough to replace me, it will be advanced enough that there will no longer be any need to do my current job. :)

    1. Re:no fear by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      once AI is advanced and friendly enough to replace me...

      Friendly? I'm a jerk; does that mean I get replaced soon?

    2. Re:no fear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, but not because of AI.
        - Your Boss

    3. Re:no fear by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      Friendly? I'm a jerk; does that mean I get replaced soon?

      No, but you may get transferred over to the help desk :)

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    4. Re:no fear by infinite9 · · Score: 1

      You should stop calling him Al. Albert is much more respectful.

      --
      Disconnect your television. Do your own research. Draw your own conclusions. They're probably lying. Don't be a sheep.
    5. Re:no fear by alvinrod · · Score: 1

      Friendly means that the AI will realize that just because you contain Carbon, it shouldn't break you down for material as part of its goal to optimize the production of carbon fiber hoods for the new 2043 'Murica Mobile, now with passenger side turret hardpoint.

    6. Re:no fear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Precisely. Mission accomplished. Once A.I. is doing software development, A.I. will be running the government, too. And it won't have our petty human vices to make it vulnerable to corruption. And no, it won't be evil, since there is no profit in making an A.I. that would destroy us.

      People need to get over their hollywood-inspired fears and see the big picture. These A.I. algorithms aren't created by hobbiests on laptops...it's impossible. They are created by teams of the best and brightest, costing billions of dollars, all with a profit motive in mind. They are optimized to the making of sound, unbiased decisions that serve human interests, because that is exactly how we are incited to make them.

      The only force that can help us transcend our petty human limitations is tech. Without it, we will remain stuck in our cannibalistic rat race forever!

      Our children will be superior to us, and they will redeem us.

    7. Re:no fear by geekmux · · Score: 1

      I think that once AI is advanced and friendly enough to replace me, it will be advanced enough that there will no longer be any need to do my current job. :)

      The question is will our world adjust and shift to accommodate a 10 or 20-hour work week as acceptable and normal for humans and pay them a living wage, or will greed ensure that half the world simply starves and dies off because there are only so many things left in that utopia that humans can contribute towards and earn a living.

      I'm not sure what you truly fear, but I fear people's ignorance, especially when it comes to underestimating the power of greed.

  5. Al Bundy? by turkeydance · · Score: 3, Funny

    Al Jazeera? Weird Al Yankovic?

    1. Re:Al Bundy? by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 1

      Al Cohol.

      --
      #DeleteChrome
    2. Re:Al Bundy? by Hardness · · Score: 1

      1 in 3 Developers Fear Adobe Illustrator Will Replace Them.

    3. Re: Al Bundy? by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      A man walks down the street,
      It's a street in a strange world.
      Maybe it's the Third World,
      Maybe it's his first time around.
      He doesn't speak the language,
      He holds no currency,
      He is a foreign man,
      He is surrounded by the sound.
      The sound
      Cattle in the marketplace,
      Scatterlings and orphanages.
      He looks around, around,
      He sees angels in the architecture.
      Spinning in infinity,
      He says Amen! and Hallelujah!

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    4. Re:Al Bundy? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Agnostic Indian.

  6. model generated code by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Colour me sceptical. We haven't even successfully entered the technology level where systems are developed using *solely* high-level modeling languages (UML, state diagrams, Simulink, Modellica, etc) and produce production code for the whole system (not just parts that are then glued together by humans with special code), and now you want to replace everything with AI (whatever that means)? Even for established code, show me a fully functioning tool for suggesting automated bug fixes when the program crashes or has a race condition.

    1. Re:model generated code by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Colour me sceptical. We haven't even successfully entered the technology level where systems are developed using *solely* high-level modeling languages (UML, state diagrams, Simulink, Modellica, etc) and produce production code for the whole system (not just parts that are then glued together by humans with special code), and now you want to replace everything with AI (whatever that means)? Even for established code, show me a fully functioning tool for suggesting automated bug fixes when the program crashes or has a race condition.

      Yes, we've sort of heard this all before. Users can't even describe properly to the AI how they want their reports to look, let alone tell it about all the exceptions and special cases, or properly document how their workflow really works.

    2. Re:model generated code by mlts · · Score: 1

      I am skeptical as well. For something common, asking an AI to code a word processor wouldn't be difficult. However, that isn't something that would be useful or bring in cash. What would be useful are things that are pushing the edge that an AI may not be able to think about.

      For example, a deduplicating program similar to obnam, bup, attic, borgbackup, or zbackup that instead of storing its repository as tons of tiny files, stores the deduplicated stuff as either a large single file, or a number of medium sized files (similar to Apple's sparse bundle bands or VMWare's 2GB .vmdk files.) This way, the filesystem does less work.

      As of now, an AI would likely not be up to this task, just because of the debugging involved, such as handling garbage collection when data is deleted/expired, handling bit rot on one of the files, and so on. However, once we have AIs that are up to writing a utility like this, the need for this utility would long have since been filled.

    3. Re:model generated code by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Hahahha, think of what an actually working hypothetical AI would conclude in this situation: The customer/user is a moron and has no clue! That will drive AI adoption like crazy! (If it ever happens at all....)

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    4. Re:model generated code by allcoolnameswheretak · · Score: 4, Interesting

      AI taking over my job as a Software Engineer is the -last- thing I'm worried about. The developers who are afraid of such a thing must have no idea about AI.
      Developing complex programs in the -last- thing an AI will be able to do. They will be able to have conversations, walk, drive, bring your kids to school and pretty much do everything else before being able to write a typical, high complexity software program.

      If that point is ever reached it means we have reached the "singularity" wherein an AI is able to program a better version of itself, exponentially increasing its own intelligence.

    5. Re:model generated code by Bengie · · Score: 1

      In a matter of speaking, customer's are morons. They don't know what they need, only what they want, and what they want is many times contradictory to itself. One of two things need to happen. The AI needs to dance that fine line between telling the end user they're retarded or we need to also get rid of the human end user.

    6. Re:model generated code by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Thank god someone on /. is not totally ignorant of AI. Just because the media goes on about AI finding cats on the web doesn't mean much in terms of "strong AI". We had this AI fever a few decades ago. Sure there has been some great progress lately (deep learning mainly, and big datasets), but these are specific algorithms that do a very narrow range of things, and even more interesting is that for these new methods to work well, very specific tuning is done *exernally* to help with the particular problem at hand.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    7. Re:model generated code by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      There's also the idea that the really hard thing to do is make something as intelligent as a cat, and that adding human intelligence onto it will be relatively easy. Evolution took a long time to produce cat-equivalents, and much less time to go from them to humans. Computers are good at stuff that looks highly complex, not nearly so good at the cognitive functions of cats.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    8. Re:model generated code by purpledinoz · · Score: 1

      Good luck to the AI who needs to implement the "Do What I Want" button specified by the idiot customer.

  7. Basic income and medicare for all is needed by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 0

    Basic income and medicare for all is needed.

    At least the ACA started with medicaid expansion (other then the places where the gop said no) Going back to the old system with the ER and jail / prison taking up the slack costs more.

    1. Re:Basic income and medicare for all is needed by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      We could do that, or we could let advances in killbot technology reduce the costs of suppressing the squalid underclass. I'm not confident that we'll choose wisely.

    2. Re:Basic income and medicare for all is needed by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      Basic income and medicare for all is needed.

      Unfortunately there's just not enough demand for it.

      *If you wanna end the war and stuff, you gotta sing LOUD!*

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    3. Re:Basic income and medicare for all is needed by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      Forcing people to buy insurance isn't socialized healthcare. Yes many millions more people have insurance that they wouldn't have had before but there are still way too many people without healthcare in the US to be saying that the ACA is successful.

    4. Re:Basic income and medicare for all is needed by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Indeed. The only alternative is the collapse of Capitalism (because people will not be able to buy enough things) and we have no replacement for Capitalism at this time. And it needs to be at least a step up from the absolute minimum needed to survive for the same reason. It will be a long and slow process though, because many people just cannot stand that somebody else gets anything for free.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    5. Re:Basic income and medicare for all is needed by KGIII · · Score: 1

      Not me, I'll be jumping up and down on the desk saying, "I wanna kill, kill, I wanna kill!"

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    6. Re:Basic income and medicare for all is needed by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      Sadly the killbot's preset kill limit makes this option increasingly less feasible.

    7. Re:Basic income and medicare for all is needed by blue9steel · · Score: 1

      we have no replacement for Capitalism at this time.

      Sure we do, it's just that most of the choices suck even worse. Feudalism 2.0 anyone?

  8. compilers, too! by ooloorie · · Score: 1

    C, C++, and Java compilers also have replaced many developers! Imagine how many more developers there would be if everybody programmed everything in assembly language! And don't get me started on text editors, IDEs, garbage collection and debuggers, pure job killing machines! The computer industry has been devastated and there are hardly any programmers left anymore because of all that automation and AI!

    1. Re:compilers, too! by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Yet you want to give them assemblers, likely full featured macro assemblers.

      Just give them a hex editor and a hard copy of the CPU instruction set and tech manual.

      I know, luxury, let them copy con: program.exe and use alt-keypad to enter op codes and data, like a Klingon coder.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    2. Re:compilers, too! by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      You probably want them to have a keyboard. All they really need is a keypad with two keys: 0 and 1. If they were really good programmers they could just use a switch like a telegraph operator to input code based on timing. Press down for a 1 and nothing for a 0. The better the programmer the faster they set the timing.

    3. Re:compilers, too! by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 1

      You probably want them to have a keyboard. All they really need is a keypad with two keys: 0 and 1. If they were really good programmers they could just use a switch like a telegraph operator to input code based on timing. Press down for a 1 and nothing for a 0. The better the programmer the faster they set the timing.

      Pfffft. You kids and your "programming languages".

      Old-school guys like me used to take a magnetized needle and just tap the spots on the floppy disk where we wanted the ones and zeros. One time we ran out of needles and had to write a program using only zeroes.

      --
      Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
    4. Re:compilers, too! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, you'll have people who's job is to "program" the AI -- That is to say, people who use a precise language to explain exactly to the AI what its job description is. Eventually, people will abbreviate terms to use more precise language. Verbal intonation will be streamlined into textual IO. The verbose responses from the AI will be parsed and codified to present a simple interface. Then the programmers will be back to using a command line interface and code editors to interface with the machine race. The only difference will be that the AIs will come up with some ideas of their own, and they'll be able to sort out how to solve more abstract problems. The interface will still be like using an API though, because we already have sentient humans and we've wrapped their IO behind APIs, reports, and even abstract collective performance rankings (stock prices).

      I'm not scared of AI. AI is afraid of me.

    5. Re:compilers, too! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is nothing, in my days we throw a stone at a butterfly on the other side of the world, to cause a lighting storm that caused the correct bit flips in the memory of a live system.

    6. Re:compilers, too! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It has to be said.

      Magnetized needles?! I program by butterfly.

    7. Re:compilers, too! by suutar · · Score: 1
  9. At risk of pedantry... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Isn't "Becoming old without a pension" less of a 'fear' and more of a 'guarantee'? With the exception of a few labor unions that have really dug in and not quite been extirpated yet, we are basically all playing the tables with our 401ks(if that). 'Pensions' are what the old people who accuse you of being an entitled, lazy, little shit have.

    In other pedantry, isn't 'seeing your skills and tools become irrelevant' an apt description of what would happen if an AI started doing your job?

    1. Re:At risk of pedantry... by barc0001 · · Score: 1

      Social Security is a pension... and one many people think won't be there in 30 years. So there's that....

    2. Re:At risk of pedantry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It gets more complicated than that. Even the 401k is only paying for your retirement, when in the future other people are working and creating all that wealth that is redistributed via interest and dividends and then gets to you for spending.

      In general, all the wealth spent on consumption has to be generated in the same time period when the consumption happens. Pension funds, social welfare, 401k, shares, bonds and whatever are just means to regulate how the wealth is to be redistributed. If no wealth is generated, all the papers you have that certify an entitlement for you to get some of the wealth are worth nothing and will get you nothing. Inflation will run high to offset all interest rates and eat away your bank account, dividends will be cut to nothing and no taxes will pay for any social welfare program.

      Whatever your plan for retirement is, in the end your wellbeing at old age will hinge on the willingness of the future working people to share their wealth with you. Every pension scheme, may it be legally based in capitalized assets or in a PAYGO system, is a PAYGO system in the end (this is called the Mackenroth thesis in Economics).

    3. Re:At risk of pedantry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      isn't 'seeing your skills and tools become irrelevant' an apt description of what would happen if an AI started doing your job?

      Your skills would still be relevent. Just like with outsourcing...your skills are still relevant, it's just that someone else has those skills and is willing to apply them for less pay. We'll with AI, rather than someONE, it's someTHING else that has the skills and is willing to apply them for less*** pay.

      Though I guess if you want to be pedantic, I suppose you could say your skills are irrelevant if you aren't willing to accept the market rate to apply them.

      ***it's won't be zero...you'll still have licensing fees, hardware costs, and maintenance for upgrades and patches.

    4. Re:At risk of pedantry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When people talk about pensions they generally mean an amount of money that you can live on with a minimum level of dignity in the town / city where you live. Not in some utopia minimum cost non-useful location that actually has many hidden costs like non-existent public transit, no hospitals etc.

      So no, social security doesn't cut it as a pension anymore. My mother gets enough CPP to buy a premium coffee a week. Without my Dad's CPP, actual real live pension with medical benefits from a real live union, and a few RRSPs she would be living in my 6 ft by 6 ft guest room.

    5. Re:At risk of pedantry... by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 1

      'Pensions' are what the old people who accuse you of being an entitled, lazy, little shit have.

      You have that backwards:
      The current Trump/Tea Party generation considers those who got pensions to be the entitled, lazy little shits.
      Todays spiral to the bottom "thinking" wants everyone to be equal.
      Equally poor, equally unhealthy, equally manipulated by demagogues.

      --
      We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
    6. Re:At risk of pedantry... by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I paid a hell of a lot into social security. I get a mailing every few months (or once a year?) that tells me how much I'll make. It is a bit confusing but I collect a small salary from a business that I actually own. I'm still paying Social Security. I want to say that it is somewhere around $2500/mo, or will be if I wait. I doubt that I'll actually file for it but it's an option.

      If I do file for it then I'll likely funnel it into the Maine Chapter of the ACLU. I can not actually envision a world where I'd need Social Security benefits. Well, not realistically. Yes, it's a good place to be and I appreciate having had the good fortune to be in this position. If there's a point where I need financial assistance then there's a lot of people who are going to be more needy than I - I'd suggest attending to them first.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  10. Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by hey! · · Score: 1

    But arguably that could cause salaries to rise as well, as programmers become more productive more software will be demanded.

    Let's imagine that programmers become twice as productive. The simplistic way of looking at things is that half the programmers will have to lose their jobs. But imagine you had a programming project that would be worth $750K to you if it were done, but will cost you a cool million to finish. That project is currently creating zero programming jobs. But in our programmers-are-twice-as-productive scenario it would cost only $500K to develop, so you'd hire more programmers.

    More AI programming would, in my opinion, shape the skillsets programmers need more than it will reduce the need for programmers. Ultimately the limiting factor in communication between two parties is their shared understanding. We are a long, long way from having AIs that share enough experience with people to interpret humans' contradictory needs. That means we'll be feeding AI "programmers" really, really precise specifications that encapsulate our human understanding of human needs.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    1. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      That line of reasoning is full of crap. It doesn't take 100,000 times more programmers to produce a program uses 100,000,000 people than it does for 1,000. Most software is already "good enough." Much of it has been tinkered to death (firefox is a good example).

      How many more word processors, spreadsheets, operating systems, social media platforms, and web browsers do we need anyway? People tend to use what other people are using. Cost is secondary (otherwise people would be running free platforms exclusively).

      However, most of today's programmers will find that they're out of a job well before they're a senior citizen. Approaching your 40s, you start looking too old and too expensive compared to a young punk.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    2. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by hey! · · Score: 1

      Really, your response is full of straw men it's hard to respond to, so I'll limit myself to just this point: you seem to be under the impression that we have all the kinds of software we'll ever need already; in which case you're right: it doesn't matter if our jobs are taken by AI's; there's no more work.

      I guess time will tell which of us is right, but I think the idea that all the kinds of software we need have already been invented could only be true if we've already imagined all the way there are to process information, and I doubt that's the case. If we'd been having this discussion fifteen years ago you might well be excused if you took the same position, but in fact there are many kinds of software developed since then that are either novel or radically different from how we thought things should be done back in 2000. For example I don't think that Oracle's RDBMS is really all that much better than it was back then, but it has some clear incremental improvements and useful new features; but that also misses the whole NoSQL movement.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    3. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There will probably always be a need for programmers as long as there are computers around, but that's not the point.

      The point is that the boom is over. Just like once there was a huge need of people building railways, now when the railway system as it were, is laid, there is little need for that workforce. Same thing with the programmers. The groundwork is done, and an increasing amount of tasks can be automated. The programmer will go the way of the phone operator. Eventually someone will have to take the call, but you'll face a whole lot of automated layers which were previously manned by people before you get there.

    4. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by Sir_Eptishous · · Score: 1

      Thats some interesting "cups and balls" logic you're using there to rationalize keeping more people employed.

      The current trend, regardless of industry or skillsets, is that AI, or "increased productivity" from technology always leads to the same conclusion, less people necessary to complete a task, whether it is a 100 billion dollar software project or cooking a hamburger.

      Technology isn't stopping or changing.

      --
      We play the game with the bravery of being out of range
    5. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      "Misses the whole NoSQL movement"???? Funny how renaming database techniques that preceded RDBMs as "NoSQL" turns it into a "new movement." Like ugly christmas sweaters that if you wait long enough come back into fashion, everything old is new again.

      We are simply not seeing new categories of software on a regular basis. It's all information storage and retrieval, networked communications, word processing and spreadsheets, and games. We don't need 1,000 different word processors, 500 different spreadsheets, 200 different data store types, and 100 different networking architectures. Games? Even Minecraft can be seen as an extension of principles laid down in sim city, and todays FPS games are the same as always, just better graphics.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    6. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by hey! · · Score: 1

      You seem to be more concerned with words than reality. I actually remember things like the ISAM and network databases of the 70s. Trust me, they aren't up to the job of handling modern transaction volumes. Someone had to create new software, because you can run friggin' models.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    7. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by hey! · · Score: 1

      The boom is not a thing in itself; it is the product of economic conditions. So is the end of the boom. When spending an additional dollar on software development returns $0.99 in value instead of $1.00, people stop spending on software development. If nothing else changes, but suddenly that $0.99 of benefit only costs $0.98, the spending resumes.

      Now that effect doesn't matter why the return is only $0.99. Perhaps you've saturated the market, and what once would have brought in $1.10 now only brings in $0.99. Sure that means that spending is done for, but only because you can't sell for a profit at that price.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    8. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      And yet RDBMs use ISAMs as part of their design to create and search records.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    9. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by hey! · · Score: 1

      And yet RDBMs use ISAMs as part of their design to create and search records.

      Using this to claim that RDBMSs haven't changed significantly in sixteen years is like claiming cars didn't change much between 1975 and 1990. Yeah, they still had cylinders and spark plugs, and the basic UI still had the same controls, but in terms of efficiency, reliability, performance and amenities the differences were stark.

      Yeah, maybe if you're using your RDBMS as a backing store for your VB app, none of the changes that have happened in the last fifteen years are relevant to you, but believe me things like replication, clustering, MVCC, native geospatial processing, etc. are very relevant to a lot of people, and they didn't happen on their own. Even today there's a lot of things that could be improved, like transaction log forensics.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    10. Re:Well it's bound to happen to some degree. by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1
      You were claiming trhat ISAMs were old, obsolete tech. I said otherwise - that they were old, but far from complete. Don't try to reframe the argument.

      And MVCC isn't something new either. And replication? Come on - that's been around for decades.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  11. H-1Bs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Other than a few occasions where the person being called in is a true professional (which I've met several who are), because of how abused the system is in the US, if a H-1B is called in to do a job, an AI can do it. Simple as that.

    This is why you don't see things like embedded programming (where the chipset has extremely limited headroom, so the latest and greatest programming language of the month can't be used) be thrown to the offshore dev houses. Similar with actual programming for specific functions (like actual security or other items where actual algorithm optimization can come into play.)

    1. Re:H-1Bs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I designed an AI primitive capable of intuitive self reflection 35 years ago and its nodes could run in 64k. It's been fleshed out with over 12000 builds into an open source studio requiring 500Mb of ram per node, but that doesn't mean the basic algorithm can't be loaded securely into IoT devices. The problem is no one is in charge to say how this or that platform should be developed. Nevertheless I've mapped out over 1000 years of future development requiring only that AI fed by human opinions be used to replace money as the predominant means for making decisions. I'm not talking about just replacing cash but the whole capitalistic structure from invoicing to profit and loss needs to be seen by AI as the most loathsome thing in the universe.

    2. Re:H-1Bs... by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I've seen you post before. You're a fucking lunatic - and I mean that in a good way. I seem to recall that the last time you wrote (that I noticed) you lamented having to write it all anew sometime in the 80s or early 90s and were thinking that you might have to do it again but didn't have enough time left on the planet to do so. You need an apostle to hand it off to when you're dead and gone. The world thrives on lunatics.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    3. Re: H-1Bs... by mbeckman · · Score: 2

      I think we are witnessing Artificial Insanity.

    4. Re:H-1Bs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I like where you are coming from and thanks for modding me up. The reason I'm anonymous on Slashdot is my hatred for their Karma system and one of the things I'd like to see an AI used for is mathematical moderation based on understanding a post. At least now my post will remain searchable and I don't have to email it into my diary. I'd love to test out on an IBM z13. Failing that, I need more like a dozen apostles and hundreds of disciples or, if you dig the analogy, do you know of a John The Baptist?

      I take it that you are older than me but all cashed up, whereas I am still thinking about coding on a daily basis; far more so than in 2007 when you saw my earlier post. I realized what made me unique was not only that my software is modeled on the human brain but that my brain became able to visualize everything I perceived in the same manner as my software.

      There is of course a huge conflict of interest which caused me to write an exclusion clause into my licensing agreement barring all who idealize the capitalist system and those who upon grasping the concepts in my manifesto will forever attempt to sabotage development. That specifically excludes Central Bankers, along with their immediate and affiliated kin. Somehow I have this idea that a person's motivations can be understood by my software to the point of being able to trust them.

      BTW, I sent you a Skype request.

    5. Re:H-1Bs... by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I don't use Skype (or even know how to) but email is an option.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    6. Re:H-1Bs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your email doesn't get through and unless I can identify you face to face I wouldn't know if I'm dealing with King George III or a replaced George King; same age as you but recently deceased of Panama City Beach. You can tell from the future I foresee that there are people like mbeckman below who will go to any length to allow their unbridled belief in capitalism to fuel a never ending stream of pit-bull attacks. If you're interested in redeveloping your data scientist role, you could end up me guiding you through to a completely rewritten library and not some set of MatLab scripts. Consider it your half-life that you can pass on to others who can see the same vision and not let it turn to lead when I die. At the very least you should want to know the reason why my studio software is almost always running when ever I'm awake.

  12. Software Engineers Are Problem Solvers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    So far, AI doesn't solve unique problems. All we can get computers to do is to apply already devised general algorithms to problems already solved. To find solutions in large cases using human designed tricks.

    Templates. Once a template doesn't fit, there needs to be a human to redesign it or make one from scratch.

    If your software job is so simple a computer can do it, it was in danger anyway. From outsourcing, say.

    This isn't to say this won't be the future in 2 generations, but I've seen nothing that it's occuring no. The best I've seen so far is a big database kick Ken Jenning's ass. Impressive and yet somehow not. A glorified wikipedia.

    1. Re:Software Engineers Are Problem Solvers by gweihir · · Score: 1

      This is that state-of-the-art. And there actually is nothing on the horizon that could do any better. Hence the threat of AI is mostly to people doing jobs that are on the same level. Anybody actually reasonably good at problem solving will not be replaced by AI anytime soon and possibly not ever.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    2. Re:Software Engineers Are Problem Solvers by CanadianMacFan · · Score: 1

      If the job could fit a template then you wouldn't need AI to fix it. The point of using AI is to solve the non-standard cases.

      That being said I don't see the good developers having anything to be worried about. They will just continue to move further away from the hardware and work in more abstract terms. Maybe we'll be able to just give specifications to the computer for what an object (class) will be and it will write all of the code behind the scenes picking the appropriate parent classes and storage for properties. It would be great to be able to get to the point where one can go I want the data I've configured over here to be shown up as a list here and the details to be shown here when a user selects one and make sure it all goes into the persistent storage. Then you just go and tidy up the screens.

      It would take some AI to do that and take some drudgery out of the building. Though it would be good to know what goes on behind the scenes. The developer will always play a part in the process, like a conductor of the orchestra.

    3. Re:Software Engineers Are Problem Solvers by Jakune · · Score: 1

      Category - "U.S. Cities" clue: "Its largest airport is named for a World War II hero; its second largest for a World War II battle." Answer? Chicago or Toronto? Which answer would the AI choose? Yup, I am terrified!!

    4. Re:Software Engineers Are Problem Solvers by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I think it necessary to include this caveat with your post...

      "Not at this moment in time and not for the immediate future."

      I'd be horribly egotistical to state that I can authoritatively claim what just 20 more years of growth will do. Some folks are like that and willing to say such. I am not. I simply do not know nor do I place much stock in those who would claim to know. Very, very few predictions about tech have been accurate.

      Will A.I. improve drastically over time *and* reach the capacities suggested by the pundits? Perhaps and quite probably. The questions are, when, at what cost, and to what purpose? I suspect that I'll be dead and gone before we have something that I'd consider "strong A.I." I am 58, I do not expect to live past 75. (I don't really want to.) Even if I live to be 100, I don't see it happening.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  13. More should be worried ! by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Comparing the crop of programmers back in the 1960's, 1970's, 1980's to programmers nowadays, and the type of code that they have produced, more of the current-day programmers should be worrying about being supplanted by AI

    Back then (1960's to 1980's) most of those who were doing programming tried all kinds of ways to sharpen their coding skills, and their efforts were not wasted

    Despite not having all the tools / toys that the current crop of programmers get, programmers of yore produce codes which were far better than what we have right now

    The chief problem with current crop of programmers is that they treat programming as a way to earn a living, while programmers of yours treat what they do as their passion

    Without the 'passion' factor the codes produced today are not much different from what AI can produce - and in fact, in some cases AI are producing better codes than their human counterparts

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
    1. Re:More should be worried ! by Daemonik · · Score: 0

      Do you wear an onion on your belt?

    2. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I can say that. Look at the quality and type of code made in the past few years, compared to what was done with far more limited tools before that. You don't really see capable tools being made these days on the GPL front, as the allure for making it big with yet another clone of an app on a store seems to take the devs there.

      If you compare Katello, Foreman, Docker, and Openstack to tools made before that, the code quality is just laughable. Openstack has had years and lots of money thrown at it, and yet, it still can't do vMotion or Live Migration, nor be upgraded without a complete rebuild. Getting developers to go in and refine that code base, making it be able to work as well as ESX/vSphere does, would make life a lot easier for virtually everyone.

      The "passion" seems lost, mainly because it seems that people hear the ka-ching sound of writing apps over writing something that can get them a meaningful job later on. I know this personally. I had an issue with an OS/hardware bug on one platform, wrote a fix that worked, shoved it in GitHub for public consumption... and now I'm actually getting interest from companies because the code I put up to "scratch an itch" actually is useful to people.

      If a dev can write a fleshlight app, they can go into an existing large-name OSS project and start fixing shit. It might be that their pull requests may get ignored sometimes, but all it takes is just a few screws to be tightened, and that can help big time when finding a well-paying job as a true developer (as opposed to a code monkey.)

    3. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Today's programmers should be worried about being replaced by the 20-somethings, just like when they were 20-something, they did the same to the 40-year-old "codgers."

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk than by a robot. And if you're in your 40s and still coding, the market says you're well past your "best before" date.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    4. Re:More should be worried ! by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      A fleshlight app? Link or it doesn't exist.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    5. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      horseshit

    6. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The chief problem with current crop of programmers is that they treat programming as a way to earn a living, while programmers of yours treat what they do as their passion

      Ahahahahahaha!

      No.

      Many of us old farts did it for the money. Some of us fell into it because we couldn't get jobs doing what we really wanted to do.

      I can't tell you how many people with aeronautical engineering degrees I worked with over the years - they would have rather worked on planes, but they were stuck writing code. Aircraft manufacturers only need so many aeronautical engineers.

      Me, developing software was the only thing I could get. What I wanted to do, required a degree from an Ivy League school - lots of snobbery and old boy system where I wanted to go. And they could be picky because they pay millions a year - yep, investment banking.

      It's getting like that in technology. I listened to a recruiter bitch about how new CS grads are fought over. To make a long story short, they ONLY recruit from top schools. So if you're a sharp kid who went to state because you wanted to save money and not end up with crushing debt, well guess what, you're gonna be in support or making Facebook pages for Joe the Plumber at $49 a pop.

      There's a shortage because employers are snobs or erroneously think that top tier schools equates to better employees.

    7. Re: More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why is that? I am in the mid-to-late part of my career and I am baffled how fucking god awful soo many in the tech industry are. These are folks who earn north of $150k who fucking suck ass. Not only that but we have like 40 people on our team where a group of 5 competent devs could run circles around them.

    8. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      As you get older, you have to specialize and eke out your own niche. Otherwise, you are competing with the 20-somethings on their turf and they will win everytime because their tats and ironic beards are cooler than yours. You can still make it in the 40s and coding, mainly because you see all the tomfoolery other people have done, have learned how to write code properly when they actually taught proper code design in college (versus coding in whatever language was in fashion), and can fix other people's crap with ease.

      Even this won't ensure you have a career. In one's upper 30s, you need to start bucking for a management position, because once you are a manager, you then can get face time with higher-ups, and actually get known on a firstname basis... which means you wind up being last when the layoffs hit, while the people under you are swept out come the next "cloud computing" initative, offshoring push, or whatnot.

    9. Re: More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One of many kinds from Barbara Hudson, she's been trolling here for years. If opinions weren't totally worthless, I'd wonder how she could have so many spending so much of her free time writing asinine comments on /.

    10. Re:More should be worried ! by geoskd · · Score: 0

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk than by a robot.

      As someone mentioned above, if you don't want to be replaced by some kid in diapers, then you need to handle the jobs that are significantly above the run of the mill stuff churning out websites and apps. I personally recommend embedded, as the typical embedded software designer will venture into the hardware realm a little, especially when debugging. This crossover into hardware means that no simple pure software AI will ever take over the task, it would need to be a very sophisticated system indeed to be able to deal with and debug the system when the hardware is not 100%.

      Embedded is easier now than it used to be, thanks to the RPI and its brethren, but the task will be one of the very last that automation reaches due to its dependence on so many different disciplines. It might fall to the H1B bug, but automation-wise its as secure as surgery or plumbing.

      I'm not sure if I see embedded falling to the lowest common denominator either. Embedded systems development is as difficult compared to the average programmers, as surgery is to a first year med student. It still depends largely on the dark arts, and there are a million gotchas, that a seasoned professional will dodge with impunity. That 23 year old who still has wet ink on his degree is going to stomp blindly right in to every one of those pitfalls, and will take forever to get a stable design, because embedded systems programming is a whole different world. The difference can be illustrated simply as: Standard programming is highly procedural, embedded programming is interrupt driven. A windows or Linux (non-kernel) programmer can go an entire career without ever writing an interrupt handler. In the embedded space, everything is an interrupt handler (or you are doing it very badly wrong, and will have no end of hell getting your system to work).

      --
      I wish I had a good sig, but all the good ones are copyrighted
    11. Re:More should be worried ! by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 4, Funny

      "You can still make it in the 40s and coding"

      I have known occasional devs who have done this, using subterfuges like surreptitiously moving open-office partitions so that nobody else sees them directly and getting missed in layoffs. They have confederates, generally the late-twenties types who are already running scared, bring them water bottles and vending machine food and carry away 'honey buckets'. By night, a paper-towel sponge bath in the restroom with the broken security cam and they're good.

      I knew one C# developer who held out until age 44, when he revealed himself with an inopportune sneeze during a VIP tour of the office. I remember the HR goons hauling him off, white beard trailing on the floor, babbling something about 'Fortran' and 'core dumps.' He was able to snag an interview in Computerworld, which was still printed on paper back then, titled something to the effect of "World's Oldest Programmer."

    12. Re:More should be worried ! by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 1

      ... The difference can be illustrated simply as: Standard programming is highly procedural, embedded programming is interrupt driven ...

      The funny - actually, not so funny - fact is that when we were developing software back then, we actually took great pains in counting the number of ticks per instruction and we frequently looked up the list of interrupts in the process of optimizing the software which we produce

      --
      Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
    13. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That seems strange to me. I am 40 something, responsible for the core code in our flagship product, and also responsible for interviewing and hiring other programmers.

      These kids that apply can hardly code themselves out of a paper bag. Seriously, I can code circles around them in my sleep. Even the really sharp ones need months of training, and not just learning the product. I teach them algorithms, patterns, tricks...and even after a few years of experience they aren't as good as I am at doing performance analysis and optimization.

      I'm not some genius. I am just a veteran software developer, and these kids ain't got nothing on me.

      I find it hard to believe that other 40-somethings aren't having the same experience. Maybe you are looking for work in the wrong places?

    14. Re:More should be worried ! by KGIII · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure that is copypasta from another thread. The 'fleshlight' typo kind of gives it away.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    15. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >If a dev can write a fleshlight app, they can go into an existing large-name OSS project and start fixing shit. It might be that their pull requests may get ignored sometimes, but all it takes is just a few screws to be tightened, and that can help big time when finding a well-paying job as a true developer (as opposed to a code monkey.)

      Spoken like a true drone. Do work for free for the small chance that Mr. Bossman comes around and hires your sorry ass so you can pay for food on your table. Thanks but no thanks. I do open source work because I'm passionate about it. Not because I want a cozy place in a cubicle farm where management types wo are 20 years younger than me tell me what to do so they can get a nicer sports car next quarter.

    16. Re:More should be worried ! by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 0

      That seems strange to me. I am 40 something, responsible for the core code in our flagship product... Seriously, I can code circles around them in my sleep. ...

      Yeah, that matches my experience too. I'm 50 now and I was just hired a few months ago in a company as a very senior dev; I'm hoping to make their pseudo-partner level this year. I also write the coding problems for our pre-interview questions and interview the candidates with others. It's so hard to find experienced or college hires who can do anything like first do algorithm design and code a solution. It's pretty much the same whether we give them pre-interview take home questions, or start at work. Every good dev has multiple offers and jobs already. I have a lot of experience working on database optimizer and execution engine implementation, and also distributed systems, but I'm not the god of the universe or anything.

      It doesn't matter how old you are, just whether you are a decent software engineer. In my office, there are 3 of us who are about 50, 2 or 3 guys 40 ish, 1 person 25 or so, 2 or 3 25-35. We are coding in c++ 11 in one project, the server backend is java. We are in Seattle.

    17. Re:More should be worried ! by sycodon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      They should worry about being replaced by Deepak on an HB-1 visa.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    18. Re:More should be worried ! by Darinbob · · Score: 2

      Of course. It was the fashion in my day.

    19. Re:More should be worried ! by Darinbob · · Score: 2

      What I've found is not that I get replaced by 20 somethings, but that I end up with 20 somethings as my boss or director (no twenty something VP yet but I'm sure I'll have one of those before I am put into archive storage).

    20. Re:More should be worried ! by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      I also see the embedded world getting a bit sloppy at times. Memory is getting cheaper so efficiency isn't a high concern and bloatware starts to creep back in. The IoT fad has the benefit of also requiring very very low power so that's shaking up the complacency again, but in another decade it might not matter.

    21. Re:More should be worried ! by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I'm an 80's programmer, I've spent nearly three decades trying to automate myself out of a job. The definition of "programming" is changing, the coders of the future will have to get used to training and maintaining AI assistants. Professionals from all walks of life who haven't studied statistics will be at a distinct disadvantage when working with the new tools.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    22. Re:More should be worried ! by jandersen · · Score: 1

      Despite not having all the tools / toys that the current crop of programmers get, programmers of yore produce codes which were far better than what we have right now

      I would change "Despite" to "Because" - having to accomplish a difficult task with very limited resources forces you to stretch your imagination, use your intelligence and learn good coding practices.

    23. Re: More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, heard about that case. Wouldn't happen on my watch: I lead a team of professional coder hunters. We're hired to find those clandestine programmers hiding around and kill them. We found one just last month, he had been hiding in a cupboard for some 25 years. Nobody could understand where the MODULA-2 code came from. He put up quite a fight too, throwing 3.5" floppies like shurikens. High density hurts like hell. Believe me, I still have a scar on my temple where that WordStar hit me, and it was just a 5.25" DD. Still bugs me from time to time.

    24. Re:More should be worried ! by jandersen · · Score: 1

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk

      I'm not sure about that - maybe in some companies, where quantity is more important than quality, but I have worked in two companies in the last 15 years, where they seem to prefer older developers, simply because they have a wider range of skills and experience.

      I think, just because we get new, fancy tools that can do much of the hard work and make a complicated task seem simple, it doesn't actually mean that the underlying task IS simple; and what that kind of tools do is to make everybody less capable of fixing the deeper issues. We have seen this with Windows and networking: networking is not really very hard, but it requires some understanding of the issues - but with Windows for Workgroups, I think it was, the requirement for understanding seemed to be all but eliminated, and shortly after that, we began to see network issues that those who had been tasked with making it work simply didn't have the skill to fix. It didn't help, of course, that the interface actively discouraged you from learning how things worked on a deeper level.

      And, to get to my point: it is very often the older, more mature developers and sysadmins that have the deeper understanding you need when things are not as straightforward as managers feel they ought to be. Some companies are beginning to realise that.

    25. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk than by a robot. And if you're in your 40s and still coding, the market says you're well past your "best before" date.

      Replacing experienced programmers with programmers in their 20s (along with a few other 'worst practices') is what drives the majority of software development projects to be delivered late and way over budget.

    26. Re: More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or you can kill the kid in diapers. Make it look like an accident.

    27. Re:More should be worried ! by mlts · · Score: 1

      I would hazard a guess that eventually... and this is after there is some big bad thing happening that actually gets companies to spend cash for it, actual security will be wanted, and programming/designing devices from the ground up with security built in and in depth, as opposed to just tacked on at the end of the process, may eventually become something part of program design. Doing secure code is something that automated tools can somewhat help with, but it is something a good, experienced dev will wind up doing, especially when dealing with a specific architecture (ARM) and its strengths/weaknesses. Optimizing code to work around CPU/RAM/storage limits isn't something one can click a checkbox on an IDE and click "build", especially if the code is critical and cannot easily be updated.

      As always, embedded programming will always require the experts. You can't really play the "it builds, ship it, let the customers have autoupdate" game with applications like SCADA systems or pushing code to FPGA boards so they can do a specific task (real time video encoding, for example.)

      The key is to change with the times. I'm not the youngest in the bunch, but being up to date on the latest and greatest has kept me employed.

    28. Re:More should be worried ! by Jahta · · Score: 2

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk

      *snip*

      And, to get to my point: it is very often the older, more mature developers and sysadmins that have the deeper understanding you need when things are not as straightforward as managers feel they ought to be. Some companies are beginning to realise that.

      Agreed. I've been developing software for almost 30 years and I'm not worried about being out of work. Experience counts. These days I typically lead agile dev teams and, while I do cut my share of the code, a lot of my role is driving the overall solution design in the right direction. A lot of the 20-somethings I see are competent coders but they are not good at visualising the overall system and thinking about things like resilience, high performance, latency, etc.

      Of course, as others have noted, having a passion for your craft helps too. I continue to learn new languages, new techniques, and new tools. If you're good enough, you're never too old.

    29. Re:More should be worried ! by shawn2772 · · Score: 2

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk than by a robot. And if you're in your 40s and still coding, the market says you're well past your "best before" date.

      Bah.

      I'm nearly 50, and if anything my marketability is growing faster than at any time in my career.

    30. Re:More should be worried ! by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Today's programmers should be worried about being replaced by the 20-somethings, just like when they were 20-something, they did the same to the 40-year-old "codgers."

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk than by a robot. And if you're in your 40s and still coding, the market says you're well past your "best before" date.

      The "market" has also suffered it's share of security breaches as a result of those wet-behind-the-ears coders with little experience.

      You get what you pay for still applies in this world. At some point bean counters will realize the risk isn't worth it. Don't hold your breath though.

    31. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That was me!

    32. Re:More should be worried ! by yagu · · Score: 1

      In my sixties. Sames. Programming for an elite firm, making good money. Highly respected. YMMV.

    33. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      This crossover into hardware means that no simple pure software AI will ever take over the task

      Chip and motherboard layout is already almost exclusively done by computers.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    34. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Since it's the majority of projects, it's obvious what the trend is, and it's getting rid of older programmers for cheaper young'uns who you can burn out and toss.

      To management, you are a cog. As you get older, you become a more expensive cog that is also harder to abuse and drag out more hours because you have other commitments in your personal life that you are not willing to sacrifice, that younger people aren't weighed down with.

      And then there's health problems. Need 6 months to a year off for pregnancy or a health issue, your job is gone. It's not like reclaiming a job on a assembly line. The person who filled in for you is now too deeply involved in the current projects to make it worthwhile to brig you up to speed. As you get older, this becomes more and more likely, and your ability to just bounce back erodes.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    35. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Don't worry - your time will come. :-(

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    36. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Bean counters have the ultimate defense - it's not their fault, so not their problem. Remember, sh*t rolls downhill, and you and other cogs are at the bottom.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    37. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But then who should Deepak worry about being replaced by?

    38. Re:More should be worried ! by gangien · · Score: 1

      I've had 5 separate jobs over 11 years. Of those, only 1 did not have a day to day developer, who was over 50. This sort of statement reminds me of slashdot saying, before my career even started, that there were going to be no jobs left, because everyone was outsourcing. Will my job be different in 10 years? quote possibly. But it's not much different from what it was 10 years ago. I'm not worried.

    39. Re:More should be worried ! by shawn2772 · · Score: 1

      Don't worry - your time will come. :-(

      Double bah. I work with other engineers in their 60s and early 70s, all gainfully and productively employed writing code. My time will come when I choose to retire, and not before. Or maybe at some point I'll choose to move to management, but, again, not until and unless I decide to.

    40. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Every good dev has multiple offers and jobs already."

      My experience has been that they are usually lousy offers. I turn 35 this year and have had offers before reaching the parking lot. Two in particular stand out for that and were two of the lousiest jobs that I ever had. Completely inept management and non-programming programmers. I don't particularly care for what I do now but it would take a damned big signing bonus for me to even consider going back to development work (for somebody else, I love developing my own stuff).

    41. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Here's a hint - the age spread of developers was not homogeneous. Having 1, of how many?

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    42. Re:More should be worried ! by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Ahh yea the back in my day programmers were real programs and we didn't have lots o ram and stuff. And it like ran at 1Hz and we still made it go faster than you young wiper-snappers go on about. And my seat was covered in broken glass and we worked outside in the snow!

      Get whatever grandpa. The good old days weren't. The source code is around to prove it as well.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    43. Re:More should be worried ! by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Absolute shit. I am over 40 and i get very lucrative offers precisely because i am more experienced and older. Not just pure programming years either.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    44. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      So you'll hit the big 5-0 in less than 10 years. Watch how quickly things can change.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    45. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I must be screwed. (All the way to the bank.) Most of the 20-somethings don't know the heap from the stack, how to debug a core file, or what a re-entrant ISR is. Excuse me while I take this load of cash to the bank...

    46. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Most of them don't need to. Not enough real demand any more to provide an incentive.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    47. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In case you haven't noticed, our entire society is based on "just making enough to survive" until you either get enough credit to live burdened with debt the rest of your days, or you get enough people financially subservient to you that you can just piss money around.

    48. Re:More should be worried ! by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      My limited experience is that it's more looks than actual age (although there was one job I missed out on due to actual age, as best I could tell). After I turned 50, I was running through lots of interviews and darn few offers. Once I started dying my hair, I got 2-3 offers in the next 5 interviews (depending on whether you count companies that planned to hire me and were apparently turned off by my birthday or not). I don't intend to have any more interviews, since I'm nearing retirement age and the chance of finding a job I like better than this one is pretty slim.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    49. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Today's programmers should be worried about being replaced by the 20-somethings, just like when they were 20-something, they did the same to the 40-year-old "codgers."

      If you're over 30, you're far more likely to be replaced in the next 5-10 years by some wet-behind-the-ears punk than by a robot. And if you're in your 40s and still coding, the market says you're well past your "best before" date.

      if you're over 40 and writing programs for a nonsoftware company, like a bank or something, you are more likely to be replaced by two managers who can't code.

    50. Re:More should be worried ! by cwsumner · · Score: 1

      Do you wear an onion on your belt?

      Of course. It was the fashion in my day.

      Besides, it really does keep insects away! 8-)

    51. Re:More should be worried ! by cwsumner · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure that is copypasta from another thread. The 'fleshlight' typo kind of gives it away.

      I just figured he was talking about apps to serve p0rn!

    52. Re:More should be worried ! by geoskd · · Score: 1

      Chip and motherboard layout is already almost exclusively done by computers.

      Umm, no.

      --
      I wish I had a good sig, but all the good ones are copyrighted
    53. Re:More should be worried ! by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

      Chip and motherboard layout is already almost exclusively done by computers.

      Umm, no.

      Do you really believe that someone sat down and laid out each of the individual gates and wire interconnects of a modern cpu, or even a stick of ram? Even if they did one a second, they would have had to start before the first moon walk.

      --
      "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
    54. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Highly unlikely.. I am almost at 40 and the current new generation of developers that get out of the same university I graduated and other similar institutions cannot even hold a candle to what I could do 20 years ago.... not even dream to compare to what I know and can do now. There is a reason I earn 4 times more than a 20's developer.. and still I manage to output ten fold the income/cost ratio for the company than the new developers can.

      Most kids nowadays cannot even grasp basic algebra and cannot even understand the tax deductions in their paychecks....

    55. Re:More should be worried ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How's it going, ol-timer?

    56. Re:More should be worried ! by geoskd · · Score: 1

      Do you really believe that someone sat down and laid out each of the individual gates and wire interconnects of a modern cpu, or even a stick of ram? Even if they did one a second, they would have had to start before the first moon walk.

      The way it is done, is that small individual components are layed out by hand. These smaller components are then copied, and combined into larger blocks. RAMs are especially easy to do this way. Processors and other ASICs are typically built up over time, meaning that a modern processor still has large portions of layout that were simply copied from earlier designs.

      The problem with autolayout software is that place and route is and NP-hard problem (similar to the traveling salesman problem). For as little as 100 gates, the problem is prohibitively difficult. For as little as 100,000 the problem is so complex that all of the compute power in the world combined would be needed for the remainder of the lifespan of the universe to get an optimal routing.

      Given the complexity of the problem, the best solution so far has been the method I described where the small circuits are ages old designs that have proven resilient over the years, and designers build up their designs lego-style, and then they just have to wire the modules together. Your modern Intel or Arm processor has significant parts that were designed as much as 30-40 years ago. These days, Intel isn't even modifying the cores anymore, they just plant more and more of them on a die, and hook them together with "interconnects".

      --
      I wish I had a good sig, but all the good ones are copyrighted
  14. 1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by Spy+Handler · · Score: 4, Funny

    and the other 2 who have actual experience with AI and know how shitty it still is, laugh at him

    1. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The other 2 fear H1Bs and outsourcing will replace them.

    2. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by StormReaver · · Score: 1

      [A]nd the other 2 who have actual experience with AI and know how shitty it still is, laugh at him[.]

      Bingo. Artificial intelligence of the modern age is an absurd oxymoron. Give it another couple hundred years or so, and it *might* be able to design and write programs as well as an 8 year-old child.

      The people afraid of A.I. usurping their programming jobs must be absolute wretched at their jobs.

    3. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      AI doesn't need to be a sentient thing you have a conversation with. You could just replace it with the word 'automation' and come out with similar results. But 'automation' hasn't typically applied to more complex jobs so thats why the 'AI' name.

      AI also doesn't need to replace all tech workers. It just has to apply pressure at the margins. It will be a long time before AI is very useful for highly custom stuff. But consider the advances/impacts in cloud tech, intellisense, and CMS. Thanks to simple standardisation and automation, combined with some decent algorithms for automated migration, a huge number of jobs becomes a small number. Some of those displaced will then compete in the remaining complex job labour pool, dragging down those workers.

      The good news is that highly paid IT workers are a bigger annoyance to Corporations (CEOs don't like irreplaceable parts) than lowly paid, easily outsourced grunts. So smug nerds who think they're too clever to be replaced will get their come-uppence sooner rather than later.

    4. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think that the "developers" are actually just administrating servers. Something that AI can easily take care of in a cloud. Or perhaps they are creating packages, the job commonly done by Jenkins. Or perhaps they are ClearCase admins, we needed 2 of those (full time job, serving 20 developers) few years ago. Obviously if you use Git or even Subversion, you don't need those admins at all. There are a lot of "developer" jobs that can easily be replaced by an "AI".

    5. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and the other 2 who have actual experience with AI and know how shitty it still is, laugh at him

      People modded you funny, but it's true. The "promise" of AI has been "just around the corner" since the 1980s. It comes and goes about every 10 years or so as people hype it up only to figure out that it's "not there yet" and then the cycle repeats. I'm a professional software engineer and I studied CS in college with a few courses in AI and in my admittedly inexpert opinion we won't see AI writing useful programming solutions to non-toy problems before the year 2050 and probably not even then. From what I can see all of the big "wins" in AI of recent years, the self-driving cars and question/answer systems ala Watson are basically iterative improvements upon systems that were around in the 1990s. They weren't very impressive then and I don't see much more to be impressed with now. So yeah, Watson won an exhibition match of Jeopardy in 2011, but IBM stock is still in the toilet and they have no idea how to monetize this supposedly "breakthrough" technology behind Watson. It's been 5 years now and still waiting for the first "wow, that's neat" killer app from Watson. I'm beginning to think that the whole thing was basically a stunt. Again, a novelty solution to a toy problem, winning a game of Jeopardy. The AI field is always trying to impress us with cheap hat tricks like that so that their research budgets don't get cut. The general public is too easily impressed with AI. They think of Lt Cmdr Data from Star Trek or Bishop from Aliens, but the truth is actually far more mundane and boring. Of course, that doesn't sound as cool so we get the hype instead.

    6. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by Bengie · · Score: 1

      AI also doesn't need to replace all tech workers. It just has to apply pressure at the margins.

      I already do that in my job. I take an 8 hour process and turn it into a 5 minute one. My job is to automate away other people's jobs. Of course my job could be replaced by an AI, but by that point AI's will be both the producers and consumers.

    7. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by delt0r · · Score: 1

      That one developer is the guy costing the team time with their shit code. They could be replaced with a turnip.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    8. Re:1 in 3 developers fear AI will replace them by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That was my first thought... 1 in 3 fear AI replacing them. The other two don't worry about it because they know an H1-B will replace them long before AI.

  15. Statistics don't lie but liars use statistics by mwehle · · Score: 1

    I'd say 29% is closer to 1 in 4 than 1 in 3.

    --
    Wir sind geboren, um frei zu sein - Rio Reiser
    1. Re:Statistics don't lie but liars use statistics by epine · · Score: 2

      I'd say 29% is closer to 1 in 4 than 1 in 3.

      1/sqrt(3*4) = 28.9% which puts 29% a titch closer to 1/3 by the harmonic mean.

      Measure twice. Cut once.

    2. Re:Statistics don't lie but liars use statistics by KGIII · · Score: 1

      Sure but it's 33.3 for 1/3. 29% is .3% closer to 25% than it is to 33.3%. Technically closer to 1:4 than 1:3.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  16. Not Outsourcing? by Tablizer · · Score: 2

    It seems to me being outsourced/offshored would be a much bigger and more immediate worry. I've already lost my job to visa workers before.

    It's a 100% certainty that it already happened from my perspective, while AI replacing devs is pie-in-the-sky Jetson stuff.

    Existing AI is pretty good at making savants, but lacks common sense, office politics skills, and the ability to deal with unexpected situations.

    It's like fearing meteors more than climate change.
       

  17. Solution: Let's all work less hours by deksza · · Score: 1

    Society should reduce working hours and share the workload so there is less unemployment. Work less hours, spend more time with your friends & family, follow creative and philosophical pursuits, and find hobbies you enjoy. After all, isn't technology supposed to make our lives better? http://artificial-intelligence...

    1. Re:Solution: Let's all work less hours by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Society should reduce working hours and share the workload so there is less unemployment. Work less hours, spend more time with your friends & family, follow creative and philosophical pursuits, and find hobbies you enjoy.

      When you work less hours, how do you make up the lost income?
      Working less hours at a job means you either need to be paid more at that job, or suppliment your income by other means. If everyone was paid more for less work, the the cost of products, services, and essentials would go up (everyone working in these industries will also require pay increases), which means you need to be paid even more again.

    2. Re:Solution: Let's all work less hours by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      To say nothing of the % of effort that starts going into 'communication and management' as project headcounts go up.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    3. Re:Solution: Let's all work less hours by Bengie · · Score: 1

      Technology is a production multiplier. Every hour worked produces 10 hours of goods. We're at a point in history where we can out-produce consumption. The only reason prices are as high as they are is artificial limitations in order to make capitalism work. You make the assumption that the rules won't be changed and we'll just give more people jobs. We do need to make some changes, but not a whole lot. The bigger issue is psychological buy in. Money only has value because people think it has value.

  18. 2 in 3 Developers by mdsolar · · Score: 2

    Welcome their new robotic overlords.

  19. ITT lots of people claiming dumb developers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...can be replaced.

    Of course, they are not the dumb ones - that'll be the OTHER developers.

  20. Re:Nonsense by Tablizer · · Score: 2

    They can always re-train as bums

    Sorry, Bum-A-Matic 9000(tm) already does that*.

    * Urinating in stairwell feature is $200 extra.

  21. I think they might be right by ErichTheRed · · Score: 3, Insightful

    One of the things that has always kept me away from development and more on the systems side has been the overwhelming evidence that the job category is shrinking. Some aspects of development, such as developing in the Web Framework of the Moment, are very abstract from the actual operations performed, and are mostly gluing together libraries and API calls. It's amazing how little many developers have to do to get something to work. Phone apps are another example -- huge SDKs do almost everything for the developer; they just have to signal intent.

    The thing that's complex, and that requires talent, is writing all of those frameworks, libraries, APIs and abstractions. Knowing how the full stack of a system works and what is actually happening is a very useful skill. This is why embedded developers are generally not low-level guys -- those libraries and other niceties don't fit into the tiny CPU and RAM constraints on many devices.

    Then again, who knows -- cloud is killing a lot of the expert-level systems jobs as well. I've been very careful to stay a generalist, but I know lots of my colleagues who spent enormous amounts of effort learning things like Cisco networking, various VM hypervisors and SAN storage inside and out, front and back, and the cloud is slowly eating away at all of that. The days of being an EMC genius, or Exchange guru, and making massive amounts of money are numbered unfortunately -- we're experiencing similar salary reductions due to commoditization that developers are facing because of H-1Bs and other factors.

    1. Re:I think they might be right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All jobs categories bloom and shrink as new software is developed and deposited like geological sedimentation layers (the software stack). Bad software gets torn out and replaced with something else that is better. In the 1970's, everyone was home-brewing their own word processors, spreadsheets and email systems. Then magazines started producing comparison charts of each vendors offering, and these companies merged until they were bought out by Microsoft. In the 1990's, X-Windows/Motif and TCP/IP were the big things until Windows NT. Then market demand was for Windows with Microsoft Foundation Classes. Having web based applications using Java and whatever else became the next generation. Finally, Java API's with thousands of classes are developed, everything from web communications to hardware interfaces of the host system. Now you can get "wizard programs" that can convert web pages into executable desktop applications.

    2. Re:I think they might be right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One of the things that has always kept me away from development and more on the systems side has been the overwhelming evidence that the job category is shrinking. Some aspects of development, such as developing in the Web Framework of the Moment, are very abstract from the actual operations performed, and are mostly gluing together libraries and API calls.

      There's a reason the people who occupy that job category are referred to derisively as "web monkeys". It is not a high skill profession.

      If you can do embedded, OS, or systems software development, life is absolutely golden.

  22. Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Our job as developers is to efficiently create software that allows other people to improve their efficiency. If you manage to code yourself out of a job, you've done a good job. Pat yourself on the back and find something else to streamline while improving quality.

    Personally I don't see how 'being replaced by AI' and 'your skills and tooling become irrelevant' are different answers.

  23. But don't worry by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The Job Creators (tm) will totally trickle down some new "creative" jobs for you, forever. Then you can train yourself all over again, at your expense, until the other "creative" types have programmed your "creative" job out of existence, then you can train your cheaper replacement for free!

    Maybe then finally we'll get the revolution we desperately need?

  24. All Anonymous Cowards are AI's by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I replaced my meatsack on Slashdot years ago

  25. 1 in 3 devs can be replaced with a shell script by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So much AI FUD on slashdot. AI is going to replace slashdot editors long before it replaces developers, lawyers, doctors, etc. etc.

  26. 1 in 3 Developers Are Incompetent Idiots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    1 in 3 developers are incompetent idiots thinking AI can or ever will do creative jobs.
    So no, AI won't replace them. They will be fired instead.

  27. What are those developers developing? by ebonum · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Many of us who get paid well, get paid well because we can take vague, poorly written specs, figure out the real world business requirements and fill in all the missing parts. Somehow I don't see AI figuring out what a human means in a particular business context any time soon. btw. If you do write perfect specs, you've essentially written the program. The hard work (the valuable work) is done. Picking good design patterns and coding it up is easy.

    I hate the term AI. There is no intelligence in it. "AI" programs are still computer programs that execute the series of steps it was told to execute. In certain cases they seem smart because they have been trained on a huge set of scenarios (You are quickly programming the program with the massive data set and associated "answers" instead of hand coding X million cases.). These "intelligent" programs still fall victim to "garbage in, garbage out" just like any dumb computer program.

    1. Re: What are those developers developing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I sell software that makes this process easier. And there is nothing easy about it. Our software just enables geniuses to do it more easily.

      No way it's automated. Most of the process is going and asking people what they mean.

    2. Re:What are those developers developing? by somenickname · · Score: 0

      I highly recommend you re-read your comment:

      Many of us who get paid well, get paid well because we can take vague, poorly written specs, figure out the real world business requirements and fill in all the missing parts. Somehow I don't see AI figuring out what a human means in a particular business context any time soon. btw. If you do write perfect specs, you've essentially written the program. The hard work (the valuable work) is done. Picking good design patterns and coding it up is easy.

      So, basically, you just need someone to train the AI to understand your business requirements. An AI that can write software can iterate on that software so quickly that you don't even need specs. You can vaguely define a problem and iterate on the solution in realtime until it suits your needs.

      I hate the term AI. There is no intelligence in it. "AI" programs are still computer programs that execute the series of steps it was told to execute. In certain cases they seem smart because they have been trained on a huge set of scenarios (You are quickly programming the program with the massive data set and associated "answers" instead of hand coding X million cases.). These "intelligent" programs still fall victim to "garbage in, garbage out" just like any dumb computer program.

      I hate the term Human Intelligence. There is no intelligence in it. HI programs are still fallible programs that execute the series of steps they are told to execute. In certain cases they seem smart because they have been trained on a huge set of scenarios. These "intelligent" humans still fall victim to "garbage in, garbage out" just like any other dumb human.

      Seriously... Fuck off.

    3. Re:What are those developers developing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Somehow I don't see AI figuring out what a human means in a particular business context any time soon.

      They don't need to. AI doesn't have to be perfect. Imagine if it would write software once you have answered all of the questions it has. Or perhaps it doesn't even write the whole software, perhaps only some parts of it and humans write the rest. In such scenario it wouldn't replace all humans, but it would replace some of them. Can you imagine AI taking care of project management?

    4. Re:What are those developers developing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, basically, you just need someone to train the AI to understand your business requirements.

      That sounds like something that an idiot with and MBA would say. Do you have an MBA? Did you get it at Trump University?

      An AI that can write software can iterate on that software so quickly that you don't even need specs. You can vaguely define a problem and iterate on the solution in realtime until it suits your needs.

      Great. Let's have the AI write the avionics software for the next mutli engine jet airliner and you can be the first human to "fly" in it. No problem right?

      I hate the term Human Intelligence. There is no intelligence in it.

      There certainly wasn't in your case, that's for sure.

    5. Re: What are those developers developing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This may be news to you, but not all software is for real-time heavy machinery control or building system components.

    6. Re: What are those developers developing? by TuringTest · · Score: 1

      Many of us who get paid well, get paid well because we can take vague, poorly written specs, figure out the real world business requirements and fill in all the missing parts

      The thing you're missing is that, if someone automates the specs-to-code part, the end users can do the "figure out the real world business requirements" all by themselves, and only pay for the software platform, cutting out the middleman.

        It worked for processes that can be represented as Excel spreadsheets, you only need to build some domain specific languages for the other most common businesses use cases to replace a large part of the work currently done by grunt developers.

      --
      Singularity: a belief in the "God" idea with the "demiurge" relation inverted.
    7. Re:What are those developers developing? by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 1

      So, basically, you just need someone to train the AI to understand your business requirements.

      Anytime I hear someone use the word "just" in the context of solving a complex issue, it typically means they're hand-waving away a really hard problem.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    8. Re:What are those developers developing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Agreed. In another reply the person saying that if somebody automates the specs to code part, then the user can cut out the middle man. I don't know what world these people live in, but today, right now, if the user could flush out the full spec to the level I require to do my job at a fundamental level, I'd already be unemployed. The majority of my job is to take what a customer says they want, and figure out specifically what they actually want.

      I tend to think if a specs to code tool were implemented tomorrow, my job would shift from writing code to interpreting what my customer said they wanted into an actual spec that this tool could use to create a correct program. I don't believe the standard person is actually capable of creating a spec specific enough to implement.

    9. Re: What are those developers developing? by Drethon · · Score: 1

      I sell software that makes this process easier. And there is nothing easy about it. Our software just enables geniuses to do it more easily.

      No way it's automated. Most of the process is going and asking people what they mean.

      And then translating what people mean into what software is actually capable of performing.

    10. Re:What are those developers developing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Picking good design patterns and coding it up is easy.

      Come again? Easy? No. It is not easy. It is profoundly difficult. As one of the people who turns demos into shipping projects, I have to clean up and fix the broken shit that was so "easy" to do. In fact, "easy" is almost always a clear signal of ignorance in what you are handing off.

      Oh the hard part was filling in the gaps in vague requirements? Or saying exactly what's needed to make it all work? Yea maybe that's hard for an inexperienced 25 year old. But, believe it or not, once you've been in the industry for a while it's not that hard to figure out what the fuck the client really wants or what the state of art is. Wake up and smell the coffee, there's a whole sub-industry out there for this shit. What there isn't, is a sub-industry that asks you to be thoughtful.

      I hate the term AI. There is no intelligence in it. "AI" programs are still computer programs that execute the series of steps it was told to execute.

      No. AI does recognition. Currently, and always has. True, there is an impossible gulf between recognition and animal level intelligence, and yes there is another impossible gulf between animal level intelligence and intellectual intelligence. However, get this clear please: recognition is completely different from a series of steps. Series of steps have time and dependencies within it's definition. Synthetic time or real time, it doesn't matter. Recognition does not. Two different things.

      I also hate the term AI, but give credit where it's due: AI is capable of solving problems for which we do not have algorithms.

      At the end of the day, the roughly 1/3 of the devs who worry about AI are victims of their own dip-shittery. They'll lose their jobs. They might think it's because of AI, but they've also just demonstrated that it doesn't matter what they think.

      It's not AI, it's people like you spouting half-truths who are the danger.

    11. Re:What are those developers developing? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "AI" is a misnomer, it gets used a lot when people actually mean an Expert System.

    12. Re: What are those developers developing? by TuringTest · · Score: 1

      I tend to think if a specs to code tool were implemented tomorrow, my job would shift from writing code to interpreting what my customer said they wanted into an actual spec that this tool could use to create a correct program. I don't believe the standard person is actually capable of creating a spec specific enough to implement.

      How many spreadsheets have you been commissioned to write in lieu of your customers, who are unable to decide by themselves what columns to put in them or how to filter them?

      Given the right tools, of course people are able to use them to solve their own problems, using knowledge from their own problem domain. I see them doing it day in, day out with the kind of data processing that can be implemented in Excel.

      In fact, if you think about it, it makes much more sense than hiring some outsider with no knowledge about your businesses, and teach them about your work barely enough for them to build a program that does the same thing. Of course there will always be a place for external consultants that analyse your practices and teach you how to make them better, but that's not the common case and doesn't apply to the majority of developments.

      --
      Singularity: a belief in the "God" idea with the "demiurge" relation inverted.
    13. Re:What are those developers developing? by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      I hate the term AI. There is no intelligence in it. "AI" programs are still computer programs that execute the series of steps it was told to execute

      My first CS prof back in the 80's explained it as "AI is stuff that is hard...today." He went on to explain that when he was a student, things like CPU load balancing and garbage collection were considered "AI".

    14. Re: What are those developers developing? by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      An MBA writing a complex spreadsheet might save him from hiring a programmer today. But it will cost him 3 programmers tomorrow to fix the mess he makes.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    15. Re: What are those developers developing? by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Do you have any idea how much money is spent every year fixing/replacing brain dead spreadsheets some MBA put into a mission critical place?

      The problem isn't the tools, it's the tool users. If they thought logically etc they would not need us. But they don't, so they do.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    16. Re: What are those developers developing? by TuringTest · · Score: 1

      At the very least, this means that all users who do think logically will get rid of the need of developers working for them.

      --
      Singularity: a belief in the "God" idea with the "demiurge" relation inverted.
    17. Re: What are those developers developing? by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      I suppose he (singular) won't need to hire devs.

      If spreadsheets where going to put devs out of work, it would have happened 20+ years ago. In practice, it creates work for devs. Not good work, but everybody has to start somewhere. Untangling a MBA mess is as good a place as anywhere.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    18. Re: What are those developers developing? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      There are two problems with this.

      First, I've seen little evidence that end users can figure out the real world business requirements to a point where it's actually specs.

      Second, it's obvious that newer software enables people to do more and more that used to require developers, but this hasn't hurt the market for developers. People want more and more sophisticated software, and the programming aids make it possible to write it. This can't go on forever, but I haven't seen any sign that we've hit or come near peak developer demand.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  28. Really? by calque · · Score: 1

    Get ready for a shock: it already happened! In the 1950s they invented a form of AI called "a compiler" and it replaced all the software developers. Any that you may think you have met are therefore merely a figment of a diseased imagination.

  29. Oh look! CASE tools are back....again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's great being over 40. I get to see all the same shit come back over and over and over.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer-aided_software_engineering

  30. Brave new world of FUD by kuzb · · Score: 1

    AI isn't advanced enough for this to even begin to be a worry. Even after someone successfully develops the world's first viable AI it will be so astronomically expensive there'll only be one or two in the world.

    Smart people are over-reacting, and the media is loving it. That's all you're seeing here.

    --
    BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
  31. Remember "The Last One?" by dpbsmith · · Score: 2

    A program for the Apple ][ that was, IIRC, advertised as "All the programs you will ever need, for just $595?" I believe it was an interview-driven database-query generator or something like that. Wikipedia points me to this review in Byte. In reality most reviews of the program were lukewarm.

    1. Re:Remember "The Last One?" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's a sweet price on a Saturn TV dish. Thanks for the heads up!!

    2. Re:Remember "The Last One?" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It was essentially an abstract programming language.

    3. Re:Remember "The Last One?" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The BYTE magazine review link, scroll up a few pages to see an advertisement for a Sinclair ZX81 for $79.95 and a 16K Module for $49.95! Where the time machine?!

  32. I've heard this refrain many time before... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The AI crowd has been promising to replace programmers for the past 40 years. It has yet to happen.

  33. What a joke by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

    AI is no more real than it was 40 years ago. Most likely there will never be AI. Technological progress is slowing. Even raw processor speed isn't increasing as fast as it was.

    1. Re:What a joke by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      I'm going to send my car over to your house to pick you up and drive you here, so that we can discuss the "No true Scotsman" fallacy over coffee. :)

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    2. Re:What a joke by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Driverless cars do not use AI, they use a simple feedback algorithm.

      start
      if car is left of centerline
          steer right
      if car is right of centerline
          steer left

      if car is above target speed
          if car is above target speed * 1.2
              apply braking
      elseif car is below target speed
              accelerate
      go to start

    3. Re:What a joke by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      They need strong AI to work. Which is why they won't be driving in 'auto' anywhere but divided highways for decades.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  34. The other 2/3 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Said 01101110 01101111 01110100 01101000 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01100110 01100101 01100001 01110010 00101100 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100110 01110010 01100101 01100101 00100000 01101101 01100001 01110010 01101011 01100101 01110100 00100000 01100011 01110010 01100101 01100001 01110100 01100101 01110011 00100000 01101010 01101111 01100010 01110011

  35. As I always say... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When people ask me if I am worried about this sort of thing..

    My company develops and sells the AI that goes into many automated drones and robots that are out there.

  36. The real question is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Could an AI feasibly replace developers with such repetitive work, poor judgement, or poor understanding of their field that this would be a fear for them?

  37. What the hell is wrong with that? by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    Not everyone is a creative genius. Most of us aren't. Should we round those folks up and off 'em? Or do we just let them starve to death? Not sure where you live, but in the United State your entire quality of life depends on a) who you're parents are and then b) your job. You got the balls for the kind of death squads needed to keep them in check when you take any hope of a livelihood away from them?

    Christ, the stuff that gets modded up on /. these days...

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by gweihir · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Indeed. And here we reach the the limits of Capitalism to distribute the wealth to the population. At the same time Capitalism depends critically on people being able to buy things, hence wealth must continue to be distributed to the population or things collapse. It is no accident that an unconditional basic income for everybody is seriously being discussed now in some countries and it is not idealists with their heads in the clouds that drive this discussion. (They are routinely trying to hijack it though, which somewhat obscures that this is about a critically important problem).

      The main problem today seems to be one of irrational envy: For example most ( > 80%) people in Switzerland say they would continue working with an unconditional basic income, even if that allows them to live reasonably well already. The problem is that most people think that not so may of their fellow citizens would do so. Still, long-term, there really is no alternative to it if we want to keep civilization going.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    2. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by ItsJustAPseudonym · · Score: 2

      Still, long-term, there really is no alternative to it if we want to keep civilization going.

      Alternative: make fewer people.

    3. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by gweihir · · Score: 1

      And that helps how?

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    4. Re: What the hell is wrong with that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wrong. There is an alternative: getting rid of the surplus people. Civilization can and will do better when only the best are left. There will be more resources and room, and the decrease in population will be beneficial to the environment. A true paradise on earth, for the 1% that matters.

    5. Re: What the hell is wrong with that? by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Spoken like a true inhumane fascist. Incidentally, that does not work either, who would your slaves be?

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    6. Re: What the hell is wrong with that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why own slaves? They require to be fed. They get sick, they grow old. They need to sleep. They can even breed unless you sterilize or castrate them. Machines are better. The privileged class who will design and supervise the building and maintenance of the machines is already part of the One Percenters' entourage. The rest is simply not needed. Keeping them is no gain, destroying them is no loss.

    7. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which Capitalist countries are seriously discussing a basic income? Furthermore, which countries are there that are truly Capitalist?

    8. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by dyslexicbunny · · Score: 1

      In a future where most people provide no value to society (via work per automation and work remains the only way to generate value), their sudden removal from existence would eliminate the problems that stem from them wanting to survive. And the remaining people would allow civilization to keep going under the new carrying capacity of work.

      A rather bleak outcome and likely not to end well as who gets to survive will be an interesting discussion and the losers in the decision will likely not take it well. It is a solution, just not a particularly good one. Unfortunately, I do imagine that at least one society/nation will implement it in lieu of a basic income concept whether it be genocide, forced sterilization, or simply paying some portions of the population to not have kids and excess population goes away in a generation.

      I would be curious how the world would look if all humanity had similar first world quality of life. Would the explosion of people all with disposable income solve the idea that work would become unnecessary?

    9. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by ItsJustAPseudonym · · Score: 1

      Actually I did not mean "removal from existence". I meant "make fewer new people". i.e. Decrease the rate at which new people are made/born. The population would decline without having to explicitly remove anyone.

      Otherwise, I agree about the end result. The world has clearly reached a population that far exceeds the maintenance-level. In fact, technology has reduced that maintenance-level, while also eliminating jobs.

    10. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by dyslexicbunny · · Score: 1

      Honestly, I'm not convinced that fewer kids alone is enough to be effective. Let's say today's 5 year olds live to 75. I think the pace of change over those 70 years is going to be large enough that most of them won't be necessary and likely their parents too even before their deaths. We might get lucky if mother nature throws us a serious epidemic of any sorts. Or we may find ourselves in a worldwide resource war due to climate change.

      Granted if we can lower birth rates in the developing world, that would be a good thing too as we might be able to help those areas get out of poverty.

    11. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by St.Creed · · Score: 1

      You need less death camps later on?

      --
      Therefore, by the (faulty) logic you're using, you're just a cow with a keyboard - osu-neko (2604)
    12. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      you are scary

    13. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > a) who *you're* parents are and then b) your job. ... and finally c) whether you can string a coherent sentence together.

    14. Re:What the hell is wrong with that? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      The problem is that this doesn't just lower the number of people, it lowers the number of the highly intelligent and creative people we need. If we could increase the proportion of highly intelligent and creative people, that would help.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  38. Good thing technology never advanced... by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    beyond the Apple II (I'm actually typing this on an Apple I, since I couldn't obtain the advanced tech in the II).

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  39. A bit of faulty reasoning by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

    According to Janel Garvin, CEO of Evans Data, the thought of obsolescence due to A.I., "was also more threatening than becoming old without a pension, being stifled at work by bad management, or by seeing their skills and tools become irrelevant."

    That's because everyone already is confronting becoming old without a pension, being stifled at work by bad management, seeing their skills and tools become irrelevant, being off-shored/out-sourced, being seen as too old when they have decades to go before becoming a senior, mass layoffs, mergers that entail "synergies" that really mean RIFs, economic crashes, jobless recoveries, divorce, kids, crime and terr'rism, racism, the collapsing safety net, being bankrupted by health problems despite having insurance ...

    Being replaced by AI is about the only fear that we haven't experienced yet.

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  40. Wtf? by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    Processing speed is _massively_ increasing. _Transistors_per_square_inch have slowed down. Try comparing a P4 to an I5 at the same clock speed sometime. And I haven't even mentioned quantum computers yet or the crazy shit you can do with stream processors in modern graphics cards. 1 Dan+ Go players are losing to computers as we speak.

    AI doesn't mean the 3 laws of robotics. It means incredibly complex if statements that are programmatically built (so called "machine learning"). It's not going to replace _every_ job. But it _is_ replacing manufacturing (even with slave labor), customer service, complex decision making like risk analysis, etc, etc. If you even displace 10% of white collar workers you have a huge impact when you drive all those desperate unemployed people to take lower paying jobs than they had (and drive down wages _everywhere_, including yours).

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:Wtf? by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      No processing speed is not increasing as fast as it was. And AI is not "if statements". And quantum computers are not what you think they are.

    2. Re:Wtf? by argumentsockpuppet · · Score: 1

      Early on in the internet, I was (sadly) consumed with the idea that since html and vbscript (sorry) were both just text, which could create other text, then it ought to be possible to create a program which would create other programs, test and apply the results. I was the AI researcher you picture, except with few resources, not much ambition and no pants.

      The real problem I faced with designing such a system was motivation. Not motivation for me, motivation for the resulting project. I was content to consider viruses, malware, trojans and money, but I couldn't come up with any motivation to instill in the product which would result in something useful.

      I killed a couple servers. Let the magic smoke out of my prized sun box and mostly I just failed to imagine some way that a self improving and replicating system could result in something that actually had a purpose.

      Twenty years later, I'm still at a loss. How do you motivate software? I can program things (in better languages now, thank you) to create other programs, programs with intentional results even, but what's the point? Software goals aren't my goals and most of them result in something similar to the magic smoke I witnessed rising from a box I overtaxed then fiddled with to no tangible result.

      If we (humans) ever create actual strong AI, it will be with a motivation that we actually care about and think can be achieved. It's amazingly easier to do parts of that job than it was when I started, but the issues I faced with creating something actually useful are still there. I automate jobs every day, and I'd love to create something that can do the automation for me, but it's a magnum opus that I can't really get behind because it doesn't serve the purpose more effectively than doing it myself.

      My replacement could be something that I could write. But I won't, not because I can't and not because I have a moral objection, but because as the product of thousands of generations of evolution, I'm still far more efficient than a program I could write.

      I'm vain and egotistical, and when they (because I'm not interested or motivated enough for it to be me) create an AI with the same capabilities and motivations, it should replace me. I'm perfectly fine with that. I expect that I won't have a clue, because my bones will be dust when it happens. But if it happened tomorrow, I could finally get around to learning enough about quantum mechanics to do something innovative with it and maybe learn to play the piano.

      If there is an AI created which can do my work, do the things I care about and enjoy life, play the piano and create a better world to live in, then I'll call it my child and love it and nurture it the same way I love my biological children. AI can and may replace humanity, but to do that, it will become human. More than human. That's a dream I can barely begin to imagine, but it will make the world better, not worse, not scary and not sad. It will be the ultimate triumph of humanity when we create something that is human and at the same time more than human to follow us and carry on our best traits, but with a type three civilization instead of the current type two our most optimistic predictions for humanity reasonably currently predict.

    3. Re:Wtf? by Hadlock · · Score: 4, Interesting

      2011 Sandy Bridge and 2015 Sky Lake are within 10% performance wise. That's what 2.5% per year? Would you still stand by your " _massively_increasing_ " Statement? Intel realized that CPUs were fast enough. Nobody is maxing out their CPU running day to day OS tasks anymore. They mostly sit idle, underclocked to save power and heat, only spinning up to full "turbo" power for brief spikes when loading a web page or a new program. Intel has famously been using these die shrinks not to improve computing power (what would consumers use it for??) but to improve thermal performance and more importantly battery life, as they fight for their lives in the mobile devices space.
       
      You have no idea what you're talking about.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    4. Re:Wtf? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And I haven't even mentioned quantum computers yet

      The easiest way to tell if someone is clueless is to see if they mention quantum computers as the magic bullet that is going to solve everything. Unfortunately, you failed that test.

      This is /. not reddit; there are people here who actually work on quantum computing and understand what it does. Perhaps you should educate yourself before spouting off about it in the future.

    5. Re:Wtf? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe for desktop PC's change was relatively small, but if you look at supercomputers, then their performance still increased by about 10x in the last 5 years, and will continue to do it in the future, probably even speed up, once photonics and quantum computers become good enough to replace / supplement current designs.

    6. Re:Wtf? by Hadlock · · Score: 1

      Yes but those supercomputers are just massively parallel machines. Performance per watt is going up but performance per unit has not budged hardly at all in 4 years.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    7. Re:Wtf? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > haven't even mentioned quantum computers yet

      Because there is nothing to mention?

  41. Yes, really by nintendoeats · · Score: 1

    Right now we need people to do those routine jobs. That means that somebody has to invest in education to do them, build industry connections and gain experience. If, after 15 years, they are replaced by a computer I don't see how society can shovel all of the responsibility on to them. Of course we DO because that's how the economy is set up, but at the very least we don't need to add insult to financial ruination.

  42. Is AI still a worthless joke? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In junior high a lifetime ago I was obsessed with AI. I had this vision of using it to help me design things or having it design things for me and associated delusions of Bill Gates bowing before me. Trolled newsgroups, downloaded every open source program I could find. GA's, ANNs, SA, expert systems and hoarded directories full of papers I could barely understand.

    One day it finally clicked how these things actually work and what actual capabilities were best case possible relative to any computer I could hope to get ahold of... needless to say I found a new hobby.

    Even today all of the AI I hear about is stuck in what I call the pattern recognition rut. Big data, translations, Watson playing Jeopardy. Design automation is limited to problems with known and easily evaluated objective functions. Otherwise most of the useful parts are come down to machines simply executing optimization algorithms invented by humans.

    When it comes to language and software design I truly believe there is huge opening for RAD systems with property of being a lot more "WHAT" rather than "HOW" oriented... to actually pull it off system would have to be very complex and bottle up language specific to numerous domains to make anything worthwhile happen.

    Don't let all the hardware, chess/go losing and self driving cars fool you...AI still sucks.

  43. Statistics show that... by maxrate · · Score: 1

    Stats show that 1 in 3 developers are out of touch with reality. Let's be honest; the time AI gets properly implemented, developers will inevitably move to favor the latest framework/development tools, having to re-code/re-tool the AI engine they built just to keep life as a developer unnecessarily complicated. The AI engine will predict this, and instead of moving to a new technology as if it where a fashion show, it will make the right decision in committing virtual suicide - as it should, proving it's superiority & keeping the developers in business. Message to development community: stop reinventing the wheel - stop being sheep! Improve what you have so that it can do everything instead of moving framework to framework. WARNING: This message is posted from an ex-software developer, an ex-developer that was not-too-shabby with programming/design, but got sick of learning the same bag of tricks over and over again. Software development is a drag, I say leave it for AI to do. That's the promise of technology anyhow.

  44. The struggle is real by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    The way I figure it is, the more able you are to believe an AI will replace a programmer, the more likely it is that you are going to be the one replaced first.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  45. Solution by NewYork · · Score: 1

    1. Legalize insider trading
    2. Regulate market capitalization
    3. Expel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominant_minority

  46. Looking for the day the AI will take my job by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This implies that it is capable of holding quite complex relationships in the software (well in anything then) and solving problems with many many variables (optimization problems). Being so smart that would be also the day when the same AI could babysit my children and i got finally day off.. \o/
    That would be also the day i would meet a lot of starving lawyers and economs on the street .)

    Unfortunately we are nowhere near that day and the story simply means that one in three developers has No Clue.

    Maybe in near future there will be some personal assistant (taking substantial part of server room) for smaller tasks 'btch plz encapsulate directx12 in a class with methods init, done, render and some helpers if necessary'. But i doubt this can replace an average programmer.

  47. We don't need AI to replace by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    a large portion of the programmers. If all there was was a system that you could teach elementary transformations by example then most of the programmers in the world would be out of a job.

  48. Well, if you worry about "The Platform", ... by aix+tom · · Score: 1

    ... you might as well worry about the AI replacing you. I switched platforms a few dozen times, depending on the job. Heck, I even switched from "electro-mechanical hard-wired logic" to do stuff to "software" and saw that most of the problem solving skills that a developer needs apply to both in the same way.

  49. Looking in the wrong direction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The problem I see as a developer isn't some automaton replacing me, but the commoditisation of software development. You already have misuse of H1Bs or in the UK the misuse of 1 year working holiday visas to get TCS goons on shore, and on both sides of the atlantic there appears to be a drive to get every kid to learn how to program. Before long you're going to have a bank of middle management who, even more so than today, think that development is easy and they don't need actual skilled engineers to write software as "I did it when I was a kid and it wasn't hard" and only want to hire the cheapest not the best. Software will still be written of course, but the real practice of software engineering will be lost. You think Facebook or Google want to help educate kids for the kid's benefit? Nope - it's all about making their future round of hires cheaper.

  50. Conclusion by eWarz · · Score: 1

    1 out of 3 'developers' aren't developers. GG.

  51. Good Things by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hi,
    Sharing for a nice article. I like it. Hare is My site

  52. What the hell is wrong with you? by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 1

    ... in the United State your entire quality of life depends on a) who you're parents are and then b) your job ...

    The hell is wrong with you?

    If I were to depend my current quality of life entirely on my parents it would be ... hmm ... totally different

    My parents? Peons in communist China

    As for my job? I was the one who created my own job - as well as the businesses I run

    The problem with you, and so many others just like you is that you prefer to wait for others to feed you, to clothe you, to hand you the so-called helicopter money, rather than create something for yourself

    And it is because there are too many people like you in America that has caused the economy of the United States to go southbound

    The pioneering spirit was the one thing that has made America great, unfortunately, it is no more

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
    1. Re:What the hell is wrong with you? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He's a fat and razy american.

    2. Re:What the hell is wrong with you? by KGIII · · Score: 1

      It's not just American. Most of us, across the globe, are unable to see (or admit) how good we have it. We don't see what resources we have as being so - because we're used to them. Most of us think our lives are tough and that our challenges are insurmountable. Many of us lack motivation because we are not destitute and have never known true hunger.

      Really, I think it should be almost mandatory for people to travel. By travel, I sure as hell don't mean tourist destinations. I mean going places where you hire a local guide and when you ask why it's so expensive he tells you that it's because he's going to hire a half dozen of his friends to provide an armed escort.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    3. Re:What the hell is wrong with you? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And you think you're a typical case, mr chinky china-man?

  53. don't worry about Al by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Al will never make it out of the shoe store. He likes to complain but he's happy to have a job that doesn't stress out his neurons.

  54. Fear not. AI's a lie. by mbeckman · · Score: 1

    We can't even define intelligence, let alone create an artificial one. AI will go down as the biggest academic scam of the century. Both centuries, actually.

  55. Developer vs. programmer by SpaghettiPattern · · Score: 3, Insightful

    tl;dr: Creative developers are not likely to be replaced by AI.

    The terms are blurred. Most people considering themselves developers actually are application programmers. Quite a few exceptional people in CS call themselves or are being classified as programmers. Apparently the almost meek title "programmer" covers more of what those people do than something like "developer".

    But in the world of us mortals the title "programmer" is not taken seriously. We need to take recourse in titles like "application programmer", "web designer", "senior developer", "solution architect", "enterprise architect" and so on. But let's be brutally honest; Most of us will never make it into Wikipedia's list of programmers.

    At any rate a developer can take an idea, a hunch or a vague concept and create a computing world around it. It requires huge amounts of insight and experience to come up with something simple that solves many business problems elegantly and which is accepted as a business proposition. As of yet I don't see such creative processes being replaced by AI. A machine that wins at chess or at go does so by recognizing patterns in a limited domain or by brute force but not by being particularly intelligent at identifying a problem in need of a solution. The contexts of go, chess and even navigation through traffic are huge but still extremely confined.

    However, if your work consists in taking requirements and producing code than expect to be surprised.

    --

    I hadn't the slightest objection to his spending his time planning massacres for the bourgeoisie... (P.G. Wodehouse)
    1. Re:Developer vs. programmer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The big problem in AI is that no one knows what it takes to move from being good in some narrow tasks to be truly intelligent in our understanding.

      For all we know it may be already 99% of what needed and it will happen in the coming weeks, or it may be only 1% of the way, and will take many decades / hundreds of years to achieve.

      The consensus of most scientists in the field is that intelligent (strong) AI will happen before 2035.

  56. Not by cborg · · Score: 1

    There is no Cobol programmer 'afeared for his job from some robot. Pacbase included.

  57. replace the ceo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    AI is more likely to surpass the need for ceo's not programmers.

  58. Another Indian ? Nt by orbit500 · · Score: 1

    Nt

  59. It's not the programmer! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You have a low ID, but this argument is misleading. It's kind of like saying all the movies in the 80's were great and memorable, forgetting 90% of them were utterly crap. Or that the creator of the game ET must be braindead, because making such a boring game to fill landfills is a really moronic thing to do.

    You forget circumstances. Today's standards are much higher. To become a systems developer, you no longer can pass without a formal degree, 10 years experience in the field, or no experience but overall top grades. As a freshman, you're met with constant ridiculous attempts of exploitation, too short deadlines, no overtime pay, no support and generally lousy requirements to do the work properly. Indeed, the newest requirements require you to be a superstar, talking with customers while coding, testing and doing every other job, like creative design, UX and videoblogs! It's all your risk but no reward! No wonder most leave systems development rather quickly. Nobody in their right mind let themselves be abused! So those that are left....

    It doesn't help that there today is a framework for anything under the sun x 10, so you need to pick and choose from those libraries you want to marry. But in 1-2 years that platform is already dying, so you have the choice of constantly migrating to new frameworks, relearning completely new ways of doing things, or working with old cruft with constantly dropping support - or pay for support, but still working on severely handicapped platform software (*cough* RDBMS *cough*).

    So, it is entirely possible to create good code. It just doesn't put bread on the table unless you own the company yourself. Having a family? Forget it! Period.

    I left coding for companies many many years ago, and have never regretted that decision. It made programming as a hobby fun and productive again.

  60. People said same about Player Piano,Record Player by evolutionary · · Score: 1

    AI Will certainly replace SOME Roles. Like player pianos, and record players, it will be used to repeat some of the best building blocks created by great musical artists. But we will still need the real McCoy. (beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here...just AI's).

    We make compilers, libraries, API's and wrappers. And yet..the number of programmers required worldwide seems to be increasing not decreasing. The basic programming AI's will handle coding segments so repetitive everyone knows what they are (just like frameworks, or robots), but we'll still need those with experience. We'll have a shakedown. And just like when VB was replaced with VB.net/C#, those without real skill and ability will fall from the tree. VB was one of the worst languages, and so many VB programmers couldn't write proper code to save their lives. But real programmers will remain. With the way tech and automation and AI is bearing out, we'll adapt, but guess what...with the way tech is today, we have to adapt anyway: new OS (cell phone), API's, frameworks, security protocols, data modeling techniques, management techniques. In tech we are ALWAYS adapting (those of us wanting to stay in the game). I have no concerns here. AI will certainly change the game a bit (error checking by an AI might be cool actually), but in technology, the games always changing anyway. We techies have had lots of time to practice.

    --
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge" - Einstein
  61. Not AI but regular tools by GuB-42 · · Score: 1

    AI will not replace devs anytime soon.
    However, what may happen is that more and more tools are made so that many developers can be bypassed. It is already happening in embedded software where some tools can convert functional diagrams into code. We are not here yet. A common problem for such tools is that they are so complex that you basically have to be a developer in addition to your primary job to use them correctly.

    1. Re:Not AI but regular tools by Fragnet · · Score: 1

      Yes, drawing a functional diagram is what developers effectively do.

  62. Does not compute! by Stavr0 · · Score: 1

    Any Dev AI exposed to actual end users requirement documents would promptly crash and lock-up, much like the Norman android or Nomad probe of Star Trek.

  63. State of tools - monkeys with typewriters by iTrawl · · Score: 1

    Is there any editor out there that is aware of and enforces language structures instead of being a glorified notepad? I would love to not be allowed to forget a semicolon or leave a half-expession typed in before I go acompiling.

    Also, visual programming that isn't glorified flowcharting would be nice. As I've been thinking about it, a real world visual programming language would have to be functional rather than imperative, and I've actually seen a few attempts while googling, but nothing came out of them.

    One first step would be to make a superspreadsheet that allows structured mini tables instead of the fullscreen 2D table we have now. And arrays of such structured mini tables.

    Once these start appearing then I'll worry that AI could also stand a chance to replace developers.

    --
    "Everybody's naked underneath" -- The Doctor
  64. Managers more likely to be replaced with AI by Fragnet · · Score: 1

    Managers implement very simple algorithms to do their work, don't they. What was it at Microsoft? Stack-Ranking. At my employer it's hours worked (forget quality of work, number of bugs and so on). We could probably get rid of all managers and replace them with a single "cloud" based manager that just counts things and divides them by another number and then fires you or not at the end of the month.

  65. As long as... by Kazoo+the+Clown · · Score: 1

    As long as it can attend my standups, sprint reviews, and sprint planning meetings for me, that's good enough.

  66. Fearing a scam? by jtayon · · Score: 1

    Oh my. No one has noticed the men programming the IA and constantly moving in the code and changing pipes of data?

    Just like dwarves in a mechanical Türk?

    AI problem is a detection problem : how can you make sure the AI is right? And who will be liable for the mistakes?
    The problem is AI don't doubt...and they can fail. So they can fail in all the more catastrophic way they are trusted.

    Don't put any hope in false Gods.

    Anyway the grasshopers of IT have harvested all the monopoly potential of the cloud, so now they are jumping to a new scam to collect new money for a new field that may even not be possible.

  67. Re: by Kaptain+Kruton · · Score: 1

    When I was in my 20's and looking for my first programming job, something I heard several times is, "It came down to you and this other guy, but we chose the other guy because he had several more years of experience." That meant "the other guy" would have been in at least in his 30's, if not older. I think it really comes down to the type of company you work at and the type of work they need their programmers to do. If you are truly worried about a 20 year old replacing you, then either the quality of your work is poor or you need to work for a different company.

  68. language compiler was early AI by peter303 · · Score: 2

    Compilers resemble expert systems. They helped early programs become ten times more productive than machine /assembly language programs. You could argue the contrary then that AIs opened up software to more developers and types of software products. Compilers and new computer languages continue to take on new tasks like parallelization and dynamic memory management.

    1. Re:language compiler was early AI by cwsumner · · Score: 1

      Compilers resemble expert systems. They helped early programs become ten times more productive than machine /assembly language programs. ...

      That's quite true, compilers, and later on linkers, were a huge advance over the previous ways of building software.

      And it is continuing. If you want to see an example of AI working with Programmers as a team, see the Template driven Code Generators used in the Clarion development system.
      http://www.softvelocity.com/

      But it will cost you $1000 to try it...

  69. Re: by BarbaraHudson · · Score: 1

    "Several more years" is not a decade. You could have even been the same age, just the other guy had several more years experience. Or they could have just told you that to ease the sting of telling you that you didn't make the cut.

    --
    "Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
  70. No problem by sootman · · Score: 1

    I'm not worried, as long as there are still human users. Artificial intelligence is no match for genuine stupidity.

    --
    Dear Slashdot: next time you want to mess with the site, add a rich-text editor for comments.
  71. Worthless... by Nunya666 · · Score: 1

    ...just like most surveys.

  72. 1 in 3 developers shouldn't be by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    'Nuff said

  73. IT first I hope by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm working pretty hard now on coding automation systems targeting a goal to eliminate as many consultant hours as possible. I'm open sourcing all of it as well. If all goes well, initially it will eliminate the need for virtualization "experts" as well as data center networking guys. I honestly can't understand why such repetitive tasks as virt, SDN and storage hasn't been replaced by scripts developed by centralized teams years ago.

  74. Remember "The Last One"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This story is at least 35 years old... Back in 1981, there was an app launched called "The Last One" because it would be the last program that would need to be written - it would generate all the programs you would need.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_One_(software)

  75. Hack away by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So 1 in 3 ransomware developers are scared their income source will dry up. OMG how we can assist them to continue a fruitful and profitable career?

  76. AI is only 5 to ten years away by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Since I started into software development 27 years I've been told "AI is only 5 to 10 years away. You should find another line of work as no one will be writing software any longer in 5 to 10 years." One of my replies to that statement was "Who writes the AI software?". It's always the people who don't truly understand software development making those claims.

  77. This has been happening for decades by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

    Each generation of developer tools has vastly reduced the amount of human work needed to write software.

    First-generation coding required laborious entry of numeric machine code.
    Second-generation coding turned this into somewhat human-readable assembly language.
    Third-generation coding abstracted software development to the point that a line of code could easily generate hundreds or thousands of lines of assembly language.
    "Expert Systems" automated programming tasks in many specialized areas.

    Today's developer tools do more and more of the mechanical work of producing software. Yet the demand for good developers has never been stronger. The pie of software to be written is not a fixed size. The more that can be automated, the more that business owners want done.

  78. i dont think so by creebhills · · Score: 0

    no matter how good AI's are human beings developed them so tell me whose got the better brain, they might have more speed efficiency though Watch Ciara Dance to Iyanya's Kukere song, Olamide's Skakiti Bobo and also Tekno's Song Duro at Dolphin Estate Lagos(VIDEO)|CREEBHILLS BLOG REVIEW'

  79. Quote by cwsumner · · Score: 1

    If you don't want to get replaced, then don't be one of the ones who -needs- to be replaced!

    To quote an old saying:
    "If Engineers built buildings like Programmers write programs, then the first woodpecker that came along would destroy civilization!"

    Spoken as an Engineer, of course... but working in software. 8-)

    By the way, you "old" guys could be my illegitimate children! 8-P