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Ocean Temps Predict US Heat Waves 50 Days Out, Study Finds (ucar.edu)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from UCAR.edu: The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern half of the United States up to 50 days in advance, according to a new study led by a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The pattern is a contrast of warmer-than-average water butting up against cooler-than-average seas. When it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week -- or even on a particular day -- can more than triple, depending on how well-formed the pattern is. "We found that we could go back as far as seven weeks and still predict an increase in the odds of future heat waves," said McKinnon, a postdoctoral research at NCAR and the lead author of the study. "What's exciting about this is the potential for long-range predictions of individual heat waves that gives society far more notice than current forecasts."
Light this morning, with increasing chance of darkness in the evening hours
I'm pretty sure knowing there's a higher than normal chance of a heat wave 50 days from know wouldn't alter my behavior or lifestyle in any way, and even people like farmers probably wouldn't change anything because:
a) 50 days out is a long time away, and
b) there still is only a relatively small chance a heatwave will actually occur. Unless it's summer, in which case heat waves always occur 80% of the time.
Chaos maximizes locally around me.
Please mod "-1, Get This Political Fuckery Off My Screen Please".
Correlation is enough for short-term prediction, which is all they're claiming.
But if ocean temperatures (which are rising) are the indicator to this prediction, you folks in the east had best be getting ready for more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves.
That is all.
Why did you have to ruin a good joke with a global warning nonsense reference?
Neither the summary nor TFA has a link to the actual paper. Insensitive clods, the both of 'em.
. . .otherwise, one could argue that the lack of Pirates causes Global Warming. . . .
Thank God that there are plenty of distinguished meteorologists like you on Slashdot to put sensationalist headlines into perspective.
If, as the summary says, they could pinpoint it to a particular week, then this would actually be quite useful. People who are at increased risk of death during a heat wave (ex: elderly) would do well to get out of the area. Our normal 10 day (or less) forecast isn't much time to plan a vacation, but if you had 50 days notice (and could count on the timing of the forecast) then those people would have plenty of time to make vacation plans to get out of the area.
Similarly, in the summer we often take several small vacations which we plan only 3 or 4 weeks ahead. Taking a vacation during a heat wave would be miserable, so this sort of info (if fairly accurate) would be enough to convince me to plan a few weeks earlier/later.
If you tell a farmer that there's a heatwave coming in ~50 days, I guarantee you they will do things differently.
Water patterns, planting patterns, fertilizing patterns, moving livestock to better places, etc, etc, etc.
I'm guessing you're not too familiar with farmers.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Constant exposure to propaganda is necessary so that it become something "everybody knows is true" and so generally accepted that nobody questions it.
No he's not. 50 days in farmer land is a short period of time.
You are implying that the information has no value.
I guess that at very least knowing in advance that a heatwave is coming could be used as a decision factor to proactively activate standby power generation facilities, reducing associated rushed setup costs.
There's value in correct and timely information. You just have to know how to extract it.
What drugs are you on? It's roughly half a growing season.
OF COURSE they're going to make changes.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Does this fall into Climate, which the scientists can predict with precision, or Weather which remains imprecise?
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
Please mod "-1, Get This Political Fuckery Off My Screen Please".
Wow really? Your position and beliefs are so weak and tenuous you literally can't bear to see "things on your screen"? That tracks very closely to religion. Plus the Streisand Effect by calling it out. [shrug]
The OP was off topic; this post has nothing to do with global warming.
You might even be able to get someone out to repair the A/C in that amount of time.
If one studies Earth's history long term, say for example, ancient Egypt and the Nile over thousands of years, it is clear the weather and it's impact on the Earth has changed many, many times. Kingdoms rose and fell based on long term drought and hot weather; long term cooling and wet weather. It is true of all the Earth. It's a cycle. Many of those cycles are far longer than a persons lifetime.
The so-called Environmentalists and all their hysterical loony-bin predictions, of which all were totally wrong, have caused certain words to be trigger words, like 'heat wave.' An example of loony was Al Gore claiming in 2005 sea levels would rise by a meter or more in 10 years unless we did what he told us and made him a billionaire. Times up and he was dead wrong. Should I even bring up East Anglia and Climategate? Thankfully most smart people have figured out the scam that would have made a select few very rich.
And here's another, it also benefits websites who want a lot of "click-throughs" and responses. Now when I hear or read about a 'heat wave' in these situations I always think of South Park's episode about Global Warming. They nailed it.
If this method can be used to provide a probability of knowing that short term warmer weather might happen soon, fine. But the person who wrote the headline was being completely disingenuous.
Data crunching is awesome and I'm all for looking for these patterns but they predicting a change in the odds from 1-6 to 1-4 "that a heat wave would strike somewhere in the eastern U.S. during a given week" betwen June and August.. I'm not sure how useful this is.
No he's not. 50 days in farmer land is a short period of time.
You're confusing "farmer" with "geologist".
#DeleteChrome
What drugs are you on?
Probably ones that he grew himself.
It's roughly half a growing season.
Wouldn't that depend on what you are growing? Like, poppies, coca bushes, wheat fungus, or mushrooms?
OF COURSE they're going to make changes.
The farmers might need to change the dates when they post armed guards around their crops.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
No he's not. 50 days in farmer land is a short period of time.
To quote the post you responded to, proving the other poster's point:
I'm guessing you're not too familiar with farmers.
Only difference is that now everybody knows that you're not. No guesswork needed.
Are we really sinking so low as to repost the same shit that was on Reddit yesterday?
In related news, projections are that by 2025 most of the South will become a desert, with 50 C (that's really really hot in F) temps, similar to the wildfire-causing heat waves in Australia.
Yes, Climate Change is real. And you didn't do anything about it, so it's going to be really really bad.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
The weather modeling folks are taking the first steps to bring ocean weather into their atmospheric weather models.
These are early, meager clues for what happens in the combined system.
Next step is gathering way more data in the ocean.
Then constructing a model that predicts the behavior.
Then some understanding of how it operates.
Then they will be in a state to start talking about cause and effect for climate change.
In the meantime, all we can do is blindly walk a knife edge between treading lightly and wrecking our lifestyle.
Given the urgency of the situation, one hopes they are working hard on this path.
All they can tell a farmer is that there is a 25% chance that somewhere in the eastern or midwestern US will experience a temperature increase of 11.7 degrees over the average temperature in the next 50 days. This is a slight increase over guessing which yields a 17% success rate.
Knowledge = Power
P= W/t
t=Money
Money = Work/Knowledge so the less you know the more you make
100 day growing season where you live? Most of the eastern US this is referring to has a much longer one.
Most *crops* have a 90-100 day growing season.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure