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Autonomous Vehicles Won't Give Us Any More Free Time, Says Study (dailymail.co.uk)

Posted by msmash on from the what-people-think dept.

An anonymous reader writes: People hoping that the driverless cars of the future will give them more free time while travelling may be in for a disappointment. Increased productivity is one of the expected benefits of self-driving cars, but a new study claims that they will have little impact. The study showed that nearly 36 percent of Americans say they would be so apprehensive using a driverless vehicle that they would only watch the road. Meanwhile, UK drivers were even more cautious at 44 per cent. "Currently, in the US, the average occupant of a light-duty vehicle spends about an hour a day traveling -- time that could potentially be put to more productive use," said Michael Sivak, research professor at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. "Indeed, increased productivity is one of the expected benefits of self-driving vehicles."

27 of 233 comments (clear)

  1. what a load of shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What people say they will do in a situation and what people do in a situation rarely have any correlation.

    1. Re:what a load of shit by chispito · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What people say they will do in a situation and what people do in a situation rarely have any correlation.

      Bingo. Study can be summarized as "X percent of people with no experience with new technology have strong opinions researchers inexplicably value."

      --
      The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
    2. Re:what a load of shit by jellomizer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Autonomous vehicles currently is a new untested technology. So naturally people currently will be more invested to double check for their safety. However as the technology matures and has a long track record then people will be more willing to do other things while the car is driving.

      Heck we have people doing stupid stuff in a 80k Tesla car, which isn't fully Autonomous just because it can keep in the lane.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    3. Re:what a load of shit by barc0001 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Ding ding ding. Plus, what some people will actually do in a given situation *the first few times* vastly differs from what they will do afterward. Examples:

      When I first flew in a plane I was glued to the window the whole trip. Now I take aisle seats.

      I have a fear of heights and rented an apartment in a high rise on the 11th floor with a small balcony. When I first moved in I didn't even like going out the door onto the balcony because of my fear of heights. The railing looked too low and it didn't "feel" safe. By the time I moved out I would walk out onto the balcony without a second thought and even lean over the edge to look down without concern.

      Nearly everyone who has anxiety about self driving cars will go through the same sort of process. What at first terrifies will quickly become boring when nothing bad happens. Then they will start looking around when they get driven, then they will get bored of that and engage in other diversions - watching video, reading, catching up on paperwork, etc.

      Plus, even more importantly the statement "Autonomous Vehicles Won't Give Us Any More Free Time" is patently wrong. Once the roads are filled with autonomous cars, even the miniscule percentage of people whose anxiety doesn't get blunted by the boredom of familiarity will still get more time back in their day as the sheer number of automated cars cause traffic flow to be more efficient. I lived in a place once where it was a 45 minute drive downtown without traffic and 2 hours during rush hour. It would be entirely reasonable to expect that trip to be less than 75 minutes during rush hour once automation takes over so that guy gets a straight 1.5 hours of his day back.

    4. Re:what a load of shit by barc0001 · · Score: 2

      But we're not talking about today. If we were having this conversation about aircraft in 1912 you could say exactly the same thing.

      Once the tech is mature enough to be widely used it will be as safe or safer than flying is today.

    5. Re:what a load of shit by swillden · · Score: 2

      What people say they will do in a situation and what people do in a situation rarely have any correlation.

      In this case I think people would do exactly what they say. The first day. Maybe the second. The extraordinarily fearful might last a week or two. The majority would probably find themselves looking in momentary panic when something unexpected happens for the first few months, but even that would pass.

      Personally, I trust math. If you can show me properly-gathered and evaluated statistics that demonstrate that the car drives as well as or better than the average human driver, I'm more than happy to let it do its thing while I do mine. In fact, even ignoring that I'd rather not waste my time driving, the car is probably better at getting me where I'm going safely than I would be. While I think I'm quite a good driver, odds and the Dunning-Kruger effect mean that I'm likely pretty average -- or lower.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    6. Re:what a load of shit by Verdatum · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "I'm pretty sure if I ever took a trip on an airplane, I'd be far too busy looking out the window making sure we don't fall out of the sky to get any work done!"

    7. Re: what a load of shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      I get car sick. I can't read porn or do anything else besides watch the road. But, the safety features have gotten incredible. Collision avoidance. I was so high one day, I didn't even notice the car in front of me stopping. My truck (2016 highlander) mad an alarming sound and slammed on the brakes. My girlfriends head arose quickly from my lap. The tech really did prevent and accident. When I was younger, I had excellent reflexes when driving. Now in my 80's, my cocaine fueled exploits almost always end in disaster. Hell, it even prevented me from running down that hooker that wanted 'extra' to work with my eractile dysfunction.

      Two points here:
      - I'll never change
      - the tech for autonomous driving with keep enhancing the safety features and make them main stream
      - this third point is like my third ball. A secret and pointless

    8. Re: what a load of shit by twdorris · · Score: 3, Funny

      Now in my 80's, my cocaine fueled exploits almost always end in disaster.

      McAfee, is that you!?

    9. Re:what a load of shit by mjwx · · Score: 2

      Plus, even more importantly the statement "Autonomous Vehicles Won't Give Us Any More Free Time" is patently wrong. Once the roads are filled with autonomous cars, even the miniscule percentage of people whose anxiety doesn't get blunted by the boredom of familiarity will still get more time back in their day as the sheer number of automated cars cause traffic flow to be more efficient.

      That is exactly what will not happen, in fact for many people their daily commute will get slower as autonomous cars will follow all the laws (no sneaky 10 KPH over in light traffic).

      I know discussing the realities of it is unpopular on ./ but I digress. There will be no autonomous superhighway of cars bumper to bumper doing 150 KPH because autonomous cars do not break the laws of physics. To go at 150 KPH you need to maintain the same distance to stop irrespective of if they are human driven or autonomous because the braking distance does not change. A 2 second gap MINIMUM is an absolute MINIMUM. Autonomous cars will be programmed to make larger ones. Also human brains react pretty damn fast, reaction times range from less than 0.5 seconds to 3 seconds. Above 3 seconds is DUI/ on the phone territory.

      The myth that all the cars will brake together is just that, a myth. Again the laws of physics count against you here. I still regularly get 500 ms pings on my 4G connection (and in the UK, the 4G is pretty good compared to the US). Also there is processing time. An automatic traffic control system will have a dozen checks and balances in it to ensure mistakes aren't made, there will be dozens of SYN/ACK packets as every single car in the area of effect needs to know exactly what to do. Not to mention encryption overheads as you don't want just anyone giving orders to cars.

      Processing needs to be onboard as well for error checking and times when the server is unavailable, too busy or the link is down. And it will need to concur with the instructions being given to it by the server. That is why the 150 KPH bumper to bumper highway is a myth. This will take time. Much like an Airbus, if all the computers don't agree completely, control will be thrown back to the pilot. In an autonomous car going bumper to bumper, they wont have time to react even if they're paying attention (which is unlikely).

      Also why the idea autonomous cars will save time is a myth, many will actually spend more time on the road because they'll follow laws and rules and it will not ease congestion because of the laws of physics.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    10. Re:what a load of shit by mlts · · Score: 2

      Right now, we are at the point where a technology is starting to be widely adapted, and people are nervous about it (perhaps rightly so.)

      However, I can list a number of things that can save time:

      1: Being able to use commute time for something else than watching the taillights of the car ahead. You can have a vehicle which can function as a mobile office, or a bedroom, where with longer commutes, use that time for useful things, be it reading, doing some work, or just going back to sleep.

      2: Vehicles can take themselves to get oil changed and inspected. This can save a day's worth of work.

      3: Fewer trips would be needed. With a self-driving van, one can call Home Labyrinth, run the credit card, have the van drive to the pickup depot, and come back. This way, if someone runs out of plywood, but still has stuff to do, all it takes is a quick order via a web page, and work can continue.

      4: If you are drunk, stoned, tripping balls, high, or all the above, you can still go home in your own vehicle. This in itself will save a lot of time because the police will have to clean up fewer wrecks.

      5: Vehicle safety can improve. Cars can be packed closer together, intersections for highways can be made into simple four way intersections, with the cars slowing up or speeding up so vehicles can fly through without having to stop.

      6: It saves time parking. Parking of automated vehicles can be handled far more densely than normal parking. Vehicle parking can be moved to the outskirts and not downtown, with a small lot used for quick unloading/loading.

      7: It would allow for long trips easily, assuming vehicle auto-fueling. Speed limits can be tossed out the window, with the speed of the vehicle being what it can do, as well as environmental conditions.

      8: If you need to carry a lot of stuff to a jobsite, and you just have one person, you can load multiple vehicles.

      Of course, there are a few issues that need to be solved:

      1: Security. If a blackhat could lock a vehicle's doors and demand ransom, or else it will ram the vehicle (and its occupants) off a bridge, that would be a show-stopper.

      2: Third party control. It could be done that cars could be told that they cannot stop at or near areas, or that when someone hops in their car, it takes them downtown for jail processing because of a warrant. Or, some bill collector gets with the car maker and shuts down cars.

      3: Corner cases. Thankfully few, but there will be many people out there looking for many ways to get a driving AI to fuck up, so they can play the lawsuit lottery.

      All and all, there are issues, but the benefits are quite useful, and far outweigh the risks (which can be mitigated.) Security can be done. For example, the XBox is going on years, with not a single working jailbreak. Similar with the PS4. Even humble old Blu-Ray is still a cat and mouse game, with fewer and fewer decoding utilities available. Third party control can be legislated. Corner cases are relatively few, and that is what insurance is for, as well as dash cams to show if it was a true deliberate action.

    11. Re:what a load of shit by barc0001 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      > in fact for many people their daily commute will get slower as autonomous cars will follow all the laws (no sneaky 10 KPH over in light traffic)

      That's not what causes rush hour traffic. What causes rush hour traffic is 20 cars at a red light each waiting .5 to 1.5 seconds for the car in front to observably start rolling through the light before the next one starts. When the cars can do that in .05 seconds, a lot more will make it through the traffic light.

      On the highway many jams are "phantom" traffic jams caused by idiots spiking brakes and not allowing for proper following distances. Both of which SDCs will eliminate.

      http://www.bbc.com/autos/story/20160428-how-ai-will-solve-traffic-part-one

      You are making a whole raft of incorrect assumptions. 500ms for an automated car to react to a car in front of it braking? Seriously? The cars are already constantly observing through both cameras and radar/lidar all other vehicles around them and tracking their positions. I would be astonished if the car couldn't react in 10ms to a change in one of the other cars' velocities. Hell, my dad's Acura has automatic braking that does better than a human if needed. It observes the car in front through radar and if the meatbag behind the wheel doesn't respond within a sufficient threshold to brake, the car does it for them.

      You say "processing needs to be on-board". It already is. And nobody is even talking about centralized network control of cars. That's going to be a long time off, if ever. Centralized car control would make a really juicy terrorist target if nothing else - "Hey let's have every 4th car cross the centerline and have a head-on at 12:14pm". There will NOT be a "server" for the foreseeable future, if ever. The most you're going to get is cars communicating with each other short range within a couple hundred meters and stating their intentions and possibly negotiating minor alterations to those intentions like 'This vehicle needs to use the turn off in 600m, request clearance for lane change' and the like.

  2. Motion Sickness by rockmuelle · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I get motion sick if I try to read anything (book, map, phone, computer) in a moving car or train. I'll get zero productivity gain from a self driving car. Not sure what percentage of the population has the same issue, but I doubt it's insignificant.

    More importantly, what's with the continued obsession with maximizing productivity? How about pitch it as a way for people to have more time to relax and recharge? Self driving car, some good music, a comfy chair, and some good scotch for the win.

    -Chris

    1. Re:Motion Sickness by cruff · · Score: 2

      I get motion sick if I try to read anything (book, map, phone, computer) in a moving car or train.

      I also suffer from motion sickness, but sometimes I can manage to read in the morning on a regional bus route if the bus suspension and the road surface are in good condition and traffic is not stop and go. Later in the day there is no way I can do that. I expect it would be the same in an autonomous vehicle, so I probably wouldn't gain much time, if any.

    2. Re:Motion Sickness by DahGhostfacedFiddlah · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Motion sickness can be caused by the dissonance between the what you see (fast movement) and what you feel (no rushing wind, your legs aren't doing any work, etc).

      Autonomous vehicles could eventually allow us to darken the windows, which could prevent motion sickness.

      --
      Last post!
    3. Re:Motion Sickness by wonkey_monkey · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's more often the other way around. The dissonance is between what you see (which, when not looking out of the window, is your relatively still surroundings) and what you feel (the car bumping around on the road, turning corners, accelerating and decelerating).

      --
      systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
  3. Useless study by Timmy+D+Programmer · · Score: 2

    That apprehension will fade fast, and folks will get to enjoy that time more.

    --


    (If at first you don't succeed, do it different next time!)
  4. I expect to be *entertained* not productive by unfortunateson · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Working while traveling isn't high on my list of priorities. Watching an episode on Netflix, playing a VR racing game (admittedly slower on the highway than on the track), whatever.

    And the comfort level will get there. The first generation will only be a little bit better than human reactions. The next version (hopefully a free software upgrade - funded by an auto-manufacturer/insurance alliance) twice as safe, the next version four times as safe, etc.

    If it can't just be software upgrades, it's going to be a long, slow adoption: cars get replaced every 2-10 years - but then they get resold, so the average age of cars on the road is over 11 years.
    (REF: http://www.usatoday.com/story/...)

    Eventually, insurance lobbies will get the government to require autonomous driving: first on certain highways and city centers, then eventually everywhere. Just like seat belts, air bags, rear-view cameras.

    --
    Design for Use, not Construction!
  5. I see another issue. by SuricouRaven · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Your work day shall begin an hour before you arrive at the office, and end an hour after.

    "What, you didn't read all your daily meeting notes and emails and answer your voice mail while on the way into the office? You slacker! Now you're going to waste an hour of your paid company time catching up. If this happens again, your future here may not be secure."

    1. Re:I see another issue. by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 2

      so you want me to clock in then when I get in to the car?

  6. Re:yes but... by jcr · · Score: 2

    THIS generation will quit watching the road as soon as the novelty of riding in an autonomous car wears off.

    -jcr

    --
    The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
  7. Sure, whatever by Kjella · · Score: 2

    My mom used to be up in arms about the microwave when we first got it, only to be used when absolutely necessary because it was cooking with radiation and radiation was dangerous. Now I'd say 9 out of 10 things are heated in the micro. With even the slightest bit of statistical evidence in its favor it'll be like riding the bus or taking a taxi in no time. Yes, I too got a control thing but if it's already not me driving then I'm not sure I trust people over computers. They fuck up pretty bad too...

    --
    Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  8. What is going on with Slashdot? by hampton2600 · · Score: 2

    Okay, first of all, this is clearly not news... it's from the freaking Daily Mail, as much a newspaper as the National Enquirer. Yeah, of course people *without* self driving cars who've never seen one before would be nervous. Also, people who've never seen a movie say they would have trouble sitting in a dark room for 2 hours. What is going on with Slashdot the last couple weeks? I used to come here for no-bullshit-tech-news, and now we have weird Hillary health posts, the pervious article about "Touch Disease" is total rubbish too. They seem to be going 50% total bullshit posts. I try and avoid HN, because of the comments section, but the editors here should just read over the entries there and copy the good ones. Here, let me do a quick look. 13 hours ago news that Tesla signed a massive contract with the California power grid. TECHNOLOGY NEWS! 3 hours ago Bash 4.4 released. TECHNOLOGY NEWS! 2 hours ago EU Court: Open WiFi Operator Not Liable for Pirate Users. TECHNOLOGY NEWS! Look, I like this place because there used to be good editorial insight into tech news and all the highlights were covered with little BS or outright bias or weirdness. It was never perfect, but damn it was better than other choices. But who the hell is the new editor? Did all the good ones leave? Is no one submitting decent news?

    --
    "I don't want to start a holy war here..."
  9. BS by bigdavex · · Score: 2

    People already fuck around with their phones when they are actually driving the car. They aren't going to be focused on the road at all after they become accustomed.

    --
    -Dave
  10. my thoughts exactly by fullmetal55 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Most people will just be on their phones, mindlessly surfing/texting, it won't fix anything, and won't increase productivity, I think this is just some talking head trying to push for executive level support of this. What I see this actually being good for is people who are on the road a lot, (plumbers, repairmen, telecom installers, etc.) This is where productivity will be increased, instead of sitting in your truck idling after a job filling out paperwork, you plug in your next appointment and do the paperwork enroute. I also see this being abused by the company, "Why did you plug in Timmy's after your 9:30 appointment?"

  11. Re:How about by nedlohs · · Score: 2

    Those are all examples of more productive use, what exactly is your complaint?

  12. Time put to use? Yes... but how? by bjdevil66 · · Score: 2

    For some it won't make much difference, since they're already using their phones to text/email/work behind the wheel while inching along in heavy traffic.

    For the rest of us, society will have to work out some social mores about how that free time will be used... Do we want our bosses assuming we'll be working DURING rush hour (both ways) as well? "Yeah, you can leave a little early - just get me that update/report/patch by the time you get home."

    Until then, I just hope I don't come across someone fapping to porn on his dash during rush hour 'cause there's no "gunning it" to get away from them. Imagine the back and forth of the crawl on the freeway between lanes - "There's the sick bastard's car again. That dude needs help.. And he thinks that tint is dark enough to cover the.. *gasp* oh dude, it's gay porn?? Gross... *sigh* Yeah, 911? There's a dude jacking off to porn in the Volvo right beside me. Isn't there a law against that? Can you get a cop to... Volvo, yes, Volvo - you know, the safe cars?... What's he look like? Hell, I don't know - Should I ask him to roll the window down to get a better look? Please hurry, though - somebody's getting it in the ass on the dashboard and I'm sick of being stuck wat... No, no! Just on the SCREEN. He's alone - sheesh... Ok, good. Thanks - I don't know how the cop's gonna get to us, though... What do I do in the meantine?... Just get away from the car, huh? Just how do I do that? Have you ever driven I-5 at 530PM? I'm not getting off the freeway - he probably is, though.. Damn it!"