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New Study Suggests There's a Limit To How Long People Can Live (go.com)
Life expectancies have risen in many countries around the world thanks to breakthroughs in medical treatment and sanitation in the last century. The maximum age of death has also increased. But as these numbers continue to rise, it raises the question as to how long can people live? ABC News reports: The record for the world's oldest person is 122 years and the odds of shattering that record are slim, according to an analysis published Wednesday in the journal Nature. In the new study, researchers [at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York] analyzed mortality data from a global database. They found that while there have been strides in reducing deaths among certain groups -- children, women during childbirth and the elderly -- the rate of improvement was slower for the very old, those over 100 years old. Next they examined how old centenarians were when they died. The record holder is Jeanne Calment, of France, who lived until 122 years old. Since her death in 1997, no one has broken her record. The researchers calculated the odds of someone reaching 125 years in a given year are less than 1 in 10,000. They think the human life span more likely maxes out at 115 years. Some aging specialists said the study doesn't take into account advances that have been made in extending the life span -- and health -- of certain laboratory animals including mice, worms and flies through genetic manipulation and other techniques. The goal is to eventually find treatments that might slow the aging process in humans and keep them healthier longer.
Genesis 6:3 NIV
Then the LORD said, “My Spirit will not contend with humans forever, for they are mortal; their days will be a hundred and twenty years.”
I would much rather die healthy, sane and in the middle of doing something I love at age 90 than I want to be a drooling vegetable that needs help to do even the most basic chores like wipe myself after a visit to the toilet but living to the age of 130.
-=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
"The record for the world's oldest person is 122 years... They think the human life span more likely maxes out at 115 years."
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
A similar study, performed with all available data in Portugal and Spain in 1490, would confirm zero percent chance of successful crossing of the Atlantic ocean to a western shore.
Nature doesn't want people (or any animal) to live past the point where it is producing offspring and launching them into the world. Most animals have been bred to die, because this is advantageous to the species as a whole.
However, the limitations are largely artificial - we can see that some few animals are essentially immortal. Selective breeding in insects achieves dramatic improvements in just a few generations. IIRC, they tried this with fruit flies - by the simple measure of only allowing older and older females to breed - and they tripled the lifespan in just a few generations. Higher mammals have the same cellular machinery.
Of course, as soon as anyone talks about selective breeding in humans, well... Even if we could experiment with selective breeding for longevity (perhaps something along the lines of Heinlein's book, it is a sure route to massive resentment and probably mass murder Apparently, if we cannot give a benefit to everyone, then we are not allowed to give it to anyone.
Enjoy life! This is not a dress rehearsal.
I thought this was a solved concept. Telomeres shorten based on cellular division and eventually the cells just don't divide anymore. The net effect is that the body stops replenishing itself and voila, old age. Unless you do something about that...
Exactly. I thought I read somewhere that in most cancer cells, their telomeres (sp?) don't shrink. Most cancer cells are 'immortal' so to speak because of this and explains partly why they grow and expand uncontrollably.
That would be the problem. Attempt to manipulate this little part of their biology and not end up like the folks on Miri's Planet...
You're messin' with my Zen Thing, man.....
46 years ago I took a college course on senescence. George Sacher developed an equation that calculated the maximum life span for any species, based on five factors. There are always a tiny number of exceptions to the rule. Humans were calculated to, on average, have a maximum life span of 120 year. This "new" study seems to be rediscovering old information.
If I write down a metric ton of bullshit, I will be right a handful of times, too. That's by no means different than various conspiracy nuts throwing about the most harebrained ideas, and should once in a blue moon one of those insane ramblings actually have something to do with reality, they act as if they knew everything all along, ignoring those thousands of times they simply spouted bullshit.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
I say "Bonk! Bonk! On the head! Bonk! Bonk!"
I thought this was a solved concept. Telomeres shorten based on cellular division and eventually the cells just don't divide anymore. The net effect is that the body stops replenishing itself and voila, old age. Unless you do something about that...
Too many people have a weird concept of humans beating biology, it goes hand in hand with the concept of all your frailites are some how your fault. Perhaps you ate red meat, maybe it was because you didn't run 5 miles every day, or that you ate tomatoes, or didn't limit your caloric intake to the point of starvation. Or that you cook your food. My old barber thought that longevity was achieved by not drinking water. Or that you need to go on a monthly fast and enema program. All have the commonality of they don't work.
It isn't out of line to notice that in some ways, this BS resembles religion.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Religion itself is a product of human frailty inasmuch as, at the personal level, religion mostly acts as a salve to the reality of guaranteed mortality. It's not altogether surprising there are other ways in which humans are illogical in their responses to this reality of death.
In both cases, an illusion of control is maintained.
HBI's Law: Frequency of calling others Nazis is directly correlated with the likelihood of the accuser being Communist.
From the article, this is not an estimate of upper max based on species capability, biological understanding of the aging process, or knowledge and subsequent realistic & accepted explanation of the limitations. They just graphed the current max age on a year by year basis and noticed that the last 20 years or so, there seems to be a plateau. At least in the countries that keep good track of age of citizens over the last 150 years or so.
Even with poor or missing data, we can see that if we used this same technique in say, 1700, the expected max age would look a bit different. At one time, our expected max age was 30!
Using a study like this to claim knowledge about the limits of age is like using a crime statistics study in the us to prove that certain minority groups are *genetically* prone to be criminals, and about exactly as useful.
As mankind progresses and continues to innovate in the fields of medicine, biology, sociology, psychology, and technology, we'll keep pushing this limit, perhaps in fits and starts, but it'll continue to advance. That is, unless there's some difficult-to-impossible ACTUAL limitation that we hit. A study of statistics like this might hint at *a* current barrier, but this doesn't identify, describe, or explain it. It certainly can't claim it's the *final* barrier.
Why do men die before their wives?
They want to.
I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.