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Magic Leap Used Fake Tech Demos and Is 'Years' Behind Schedule (ibtimes.co.uk)

New submitter drunkdrone writes: Magic Leap's coveted mixed reality technology has been the subject of intense speculation since it broke ground in 2014. Having secured billions of dollars in funding from some of the world's biggest tech giants, the secretive start-up has managed to stay at the centre of the VR/AR conversation despite showing little of the so-called revolutionary technology it has in the works. Now, the Magic Leap hype bubble may be about to burst in spectacularly disappointing fashion. According to reports, the Florida-based start-up is years behind on its plans and may have used deceptive product demos in order to keep interest in its tech alive. The Verge, which quotes an exclusive article from The Information, reports that Magic Leap's mixed reality technology has long since been overtaken by other products already on the market such as Microsoft's HoloLens, which Magic Leap's technology is said to most closely resemble. Allegedly, Magic Leap has struggled to scale-down a bulky piece of laser projection equipment used within the headset's display. "The crux of the problem appears to be Magic Leap's gamble on a so-called fibre scanning display, which shines a laser through a fibre optic cable that moves rapidly back and forth to draw images out of light," reports the Verge.

114 comments

  1. Well, there's that old saying... by NoNonAlphaCharsHere · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo".

    1. Re:Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Also, "hardware is hard."

    2. Re: Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also, everyone in Florida is a con artist.

      As a proud resident of the sunshine state, I can confirm this.

    3. Re:Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's just that each side blames different riggers.

      HEY, DAT'S RAYYSSSSISSSS!!1!

    4. Re:Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also, it's really dumb that "Magic Leap" often gets confused with "Leap Motion". They are two different things. Both in the VR space. Grumble grumble.

    5. Re: Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I can't tell if you managed to intentionally meant to invoke the Liar Paradox or not. Good show!

    6. Re:Well, there's that old saying... by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Dog whistle for dyslexic racists?

    7. Re:Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Damn riggers, messing everything up.

    8. Re: Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Leap motion is great but it's one of those solutions looking for a problem.

    9. Re: Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Leap Motion solves the problem of insufficient Gorilla Arm Pain.

    10. Re:Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thats the "Magic" in Magic Leap.

    11. Re: Well, there's that old saying... by BlytheBowman · · Score: 1

      I wonder if they still run dial-a-porn "hotlines" down there. Just $7 a minute to talk to some slobby, unattractive woman who just happens to have a sexy phone voice.

    12. Re: Well, there's that old saying... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I knew there was something wrong while I was visiting Orlando. Not only did soda cost 10 times, I also felt urge to pickpocket strangers.

    13. Re:Well, there's that old saying... by syntotic · · Score: 1

      As long as they are not promising what was supposed to be asked from me...

  2. Ya don't say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Florida-based start-up

    Wait, a scam in Florida? That's unpossible!

    1. Re:Ya don't say by Pseudonymous+Powers · · Score: 2

      Florida-based start-up

      Wait, a scam in Florida? That's unpossible!

      Yes, it turns out all the breathtakingly rendered 3D augmented-reality monsters in the demos were just the native fauna of Florida.

    2. Re:Ya don't say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Well, I'm sure nobody will get the reference - but they were really the fauna of Xanth.

    3. Re:Ya don't say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I get it. Been a while since I read those books.

    4. Re:Ya don't say by necro81 · · Score: 1

      Yes, it turns out all the breathtakingly rendered 3D augmented-reality monsters in the demos were just the native fauna of Florida.

      come on, now. Uncle Billy ain't all that bad.

    5. Re: Ya don't say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes!

    6. Re: Ya don't say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mundania

  3. Finally! by Master5000 · · Score: 0

    I hope not only they burn to the ground but they also get jail time for fraud. Entrepreneur == thieving fraud most of these days! Billions of dollars wasted on junk. Think about what we could have done with that kind of money...

    1. Re: Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I hope they don't. When things fail like this I love it. This is capitalism at its finest. It's eating its own and leaving the stupid out to dry. I just wish it happened more. That's the only thing to be mad about here.

      Y'all want this beast, you might as well fucking enjoy all of it. Don't cry when things go wrong and the market does what the market should.

    2. Re: Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What do you think they actually did with the money? Burn it with lasers? Pew, pew!

    3. Re:Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yep. Somebody needs to serve drinks in Ibaza, and somebody needs to built yachts. The invisible hand is infallible.

    4. Re:Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I did say "eventually."

    5. Re:Finally! by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1, Troll

      Remember back in the late nineties, when people (mostly stupid liberals) convinced Congress and Clinton to pass a "Luxury Tax" on things like ... yachts? Remember what happened to all those industries that were building those things? Do you remember the fanfare when they repealed that tax?

      Yeah, nobody remembers shit like that.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    6. Re:Finally! by kamapuaa · · Score: 4, Informative

      Do you? This happened in the early 90s, actually. HW Bush implemented it, Clinton repealed it his first year in office.

      --
      Slashdot: providing anti-social weirdos a soapbox, since 1997.
    7. Re:Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To mangle a qoute, "eventually we're all dead".

    8. Re: Finally! by The-Ixian · · Score: 1

      This is capitalism at its finest. It's eating its own

      I think you mean cannibalism...

      --
      My eyes reflect the stars and a smile lights up my face.
    9. Re:Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All of it didn't expire in the 90's. The automobile luxury tax didn't go away until 2002 courtesy of George W. Bush. Get off your high horse.

    10. Re:Finally! by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      All of it didn't expire in the 90's. The automobile luxury tax didn't go away until 2002 courtesy of George W. Bush. Get off your high horse.

      How would that affect American companies, anyway? They still don't know how to build a luxury car that doesn't feel like the inside of a plastic lunchbox.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    11. Re:Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That was Bush Sr. you fucking dipshit tard.

    12. Re:Finally! by Solandri · · Score: 1

      Presidents don't make tax law. They give a suggestion to Congress, and Congress does whatever the hell it wants. The luxury tax was passed by a Democrat-controlled House and Senate. Bush was forced to sign it because the Democrats refused to pass a budget which didn't include a tax increase (leaving Bush no choice but to go back on his "read my lips - no new taxes" pledge).

      Clinton repealed it because by then it was obvious it was killing the industries it effected (e.g. yacht sales plummeted and boat manufacturers were laying off workers - yacht construction is one of the few industries where it's relatively expensive to outsource the labor because you can't just put the end product on a bulk cargo ship for cheap transport from Asia). And the Republicans managed to gain control of the Senate thus preventing Democrat legislators from unilaterally dictating tax policy.

    13. Re:Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Some of the sports cars are OK.

    14. Re:Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow, that's the best example of moving the goalposts I've seen to date. Thank you, fellow AC.

    15. Re: Finally! by Gavagai80 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Failing because you bet on the wrong tech? Fine. But faking tech demos to dupe investors? Go to jail. One of the stupidities of blind worship of capitalism is that capitalism only works if everybody has access to accurate information.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    16. Re:Finally! by Frank+Burly · · Score: 1

      "Presidents don't make tax law. They give a suggestion to Congress, and Congress does whatever the hell it wants." CITATION NEEDED-Don't look in the Constitution, or the news, neither will be helpful. The Republicans regularly threw hissy fits and shut down the government because Obama (and Clinton) wouldn't do whatever the hell they want.

    17. Re: Finally! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anyone who doesn't do due diligence to see a demo with their own eyes, and invests a material sum of money is being lazy. This is a prime example of idiots funding idiots.

  4. Were those public or private demos? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Because that's the way things work when you're trying to con voters, errr, investors.

    1. Re:Were those public or private demos? by NatasRevol · · Score: 1

      Only private. And probably all faked well enough to fool investors.

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
  5. Common by 110010001000 · · Score: 0, Troll

    This is common in tech. It creates an illusion of leaps of progress in tech. The reality is that the tech industry has reached a dead end with the death of Moore's Law. You will see incremental progress from here on out, but no more large leaps like we have had for the previous 40 years.

    1. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are seriously predicting that there will be no more large leaps in 40 years?

      Moron.

    2. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      With that kind of attitude, its safe to assume that the next large leap won't come from you.
      Step aside.

    3. Re:Common by ArchieBunker · · Score: 1

      Until some physics breakthrough happens where we get cold fusion, not much will change.

      --
      Only the State obtains its revenue by coercion. - Murray Rothbard
    4. Re:Common by zieroh · · Score: 1

      The reality is that the tech industry has reached a dead end with the death of Moore's Law.

      Are you implying that raw processing speed is the only possible avenue of innovation? Really? There are no other possible ways that technology can improve?

      --
      People who say "sheeple" have about as much sophistication as an AOL user, and in fact are probably actually AOL users.
    5. Re:Common by nine-times · · Score: 1

      The reality is that the tech industry has reached a dead end with the death of Moore's Law.

      Is the problem really processing power, though? For a system like this, it seems like there are other problems bound to creep up:

      * AFAIK, we still don't have good enough AI to figure out a spacial 3D world from visual input. I know it's still being worked on and there's been progress, but being able to place objects in the real world in this kind of augmented reality requires that the computer can figure out the layout of 3D objects within the real world.
      * Even if you can render the graphics and place them appropriately in the world, there's still the problem of designing the UI. You need to create both the visual look of the interface, and figure out which gestures to use for different controls. The interface (input and feedback) needs to be easy and intuitive and provide clear feedback to user interaction.
      * You also need to make the gestures such that they're read by the computer reliably-- that is, if I'm supposed to do a specific hand motion to activate a feature, the hand motion needs to be something that the computer will recognize almost every time it is performed, it needs to be distinct enough from other control gestures and natural gestures. Basically, people need to be able to control these systems without constantly activating various controls by accident.

      These are fairly difficult problems for computers to figure out, and as far as I know, they're not really a problem of insufficient computing power. That is, as far as I know, it's not like we've developed code that can do these things and a UI that works well, but we need a computer 5x as powerful to run it in real-time. The problem is that we just don't have the design/code to do it.

    6. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Perhaps not in terms of actual speed/# of transistors, but there's plenty of room for improvement elsewhere in the hardware. Additionally, I think we're only really just seeing the catching-up of software to the fact that things have multiple cores (and many specialised cores too).

      Moreover, we're now in an age where computers are becoming totally ubiquitous and embedded in the very fabric of our day to day lives, so enhancements in software and connectivity will drive new advancements. 'Virtual assistants' will become more prevalent and gain more useful functionality, direct mind control interfaces (like the kind we're seeing developed by the prosthetic's industry) will continue to get better and the path of miniaturisation will continue. VR is obviously being pushed right now so expect to see that increase in prevalence (it seems to have gained more traction this time than the previous efforts with underpowered hardware and massive headsets) and actually seems to do a reasonable job. Something like Magic Leap is not too far off I would imagine, if not from them.

      Finally, I'm pretty sure we've been hearing of the death of Moore's Law for some time now but something always crops up that extends it for a little longer. I'm sure there are many brilliant people working on the problem of faster/smaller/less power hungry all the time so I have no idea what the next few years are going to bring in terms of new discoveries there, but I wouldn't be so quick to write it off just yet.

    7. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      By all means, wow us.

    8. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Just because we're running in to issues throwing transistors at the problem doesn't mean there isn't room for advancement.

      We're coming along quite well making those transistor faster, and learning to better use them. More importantly we're getting VERY good at making data move in and out faster - Which for decades has been the real bottleneck.

      Since the late 90s desktops and consumer devices have had fast CPUs starved for data.

      The march has always been slow and incremental. Revolutionary products are usually outright fraud. The ones that aren't just employ existing technologies in a novel manner.

      If you see a new 'revolutionary' product and any one piece of it seems to massively outpace any existing peer (Say crazy graphics performance, extremely goo motion tracking, insane battery life), you know it's bullshit.

      If for nothing else, they'd be focusing on that one piece that's leaps ahead and marketing that - Rather than tying it to some complicated pie-in-the-sky venture.

    9. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As far as software goes, isn't processing speed the only thing that matters? Adding more RAM, doing parallel computing, etc are just other ways of increasing the processing speed too.

    10. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am convinced 110010001000's posting strategy is to flamebait with obvious stupidity, just to get lots replies and visibility.

      The real failures here are the mods that give this moron positive mod points.

      "no more large leaps" what....ever? Ridiculous.

    11. Re:Common by Diss+Champ · · Score: 3, Insightful

      As far as software goes, isn't processing speed the only thing that matters? Adding more RAM, doing parallel computing, etc are just other ways of increasing the processing speed too.

      On the contrary, software could go a long way to utilize the parallelism better. Heck, most consumer software if re-written carefully would achieve speedups well beyond a couple Moore's Law generations.
      Doing that re-writing properly would probably also cost more, which is why people have been happy to follow the hardware route for so long.

    12. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      As far as software goes, isn't processing speed the only thing that matters? Adding more RAM, doing parallel computing, etc are just other ways of increasing the processing speed too.

      For the lazy programmers, yes. Outside of embedded systems nobody has cared about optimization for decades now because they can always just up the hardware specs and throw faster hardware at their inefficient code.

    13. Re:Common by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      Getting off Spinning disks and onto SSDs has increased computing performance much more than processor speeds has. And it isn't even close. We've just been stuck on Spinning drives for so long, that we thought increasing processor speed would solve our problems, when that wasn't the issue at all.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    14. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You haven't used a Hololens obviously. All of your points are adequately addressed - real time room mapping over multiple rooms, instantly understandable UI all controlled by (essentially) two gestures and voice. My mind was blown when someone walked between me and the 'hologram' I was playing with and the image was properly occluded to mask the person.Works incredibly well now and will get better. We have the flops, the hardware and the code to do it all now - you are out of touch!

    15. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You haven't used a Hololens obviously. All of your points are adequately addressed

      Pure unadulterated bullshit. I've used the Hololens and it is nowhere near as advanced as you claim.

    16. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      On the contrary, software could go a long way to utilize the parallelism better. Heck, most consumer software if re-written carefully would achieve speedups well beyond a couple Moore's Law generations. Doing that re-writing properly would probably also cost more, which is why people have been happy to follow the hardware route for so long.

      This argument is late. Per-core hardware route hit a power wall a decade ago. I would be hard pressed today to name a CPU bound application I use in 2016 unable to take advantage of all available cores. It may not do so with 100% efficiency and may leave available capabilities such as GPU offloading untapped yet the general argument is invalid as far as I'm concerned.

      There are architectural argument you could make for performance improvements that better use available transistor counts such as dumbing down and scaling out cores and less rigorous concurrency guarantees that would overall provide better capabilities for the same transistor count but held up by reality of interoperating poorly with current software.

      At the end of the day Moore's Law is just an expression of cost per transistor. The more you can afford the more capabilities you get to stuff into your gadgets. This feedback loop has been primary driver of IC innovation over the decades.

      While process improvements are certainly an important contributor to reduced cost price reductions are enabled by economies of scale. If node size froze today you would still see cost reductions by other means. Better yields, larger wafers, increased volume and other production synergies which in-turn translates to everyone being able to afford more capabilities for the same cost.

    17. Re: Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For disk bound problems. Once its off disk, you're dealing with memory access issues. AMD was spectacular in the early naughties for being an order of magnitude faster than Intel on the FSB, but that's history now.

    18. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Right, because everything iss IO bound.

      Oops, it isn't. Fail.

    19. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hold my beer..

    20. Re:Common by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Read. 110010001000 is a troll, but this statement:

      no more large leaps like we have had for the previous 40 years.

      Does not mean:

      there will be no more large leaps in 40 years

      as you bitch about.

      The statement means that we will have no more (ever, within your lifetime, whatever) large leaps like the large leaps we've had throughout the PAST 40 years.

    21. Re:Common by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      if re-written carefully would achieve speedups well beyond a couple Moore's Law generations

      Yes, immediately offset by bugs and other wonders that result from thinking you have a better way.

      You are right, software has a lot of room for further optimisation. But as much as we like to heap crap onto lazy software engineers who do nothing but copy and paste or implement standard high level libraries without advanced use of languages, it's also how bugs are avoided from re-implementation.

    22. Re:Common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      bullshit. not every computing performance issue is a disk bound IO problem, actually I would say most are NOT. We have a few thousand servers in our Datacentre doing everything from data mining, transaction processing and web serving, only a tiny fraction of 1% even use SSD as they simply have no benefit for most processing workloads.

  6. Theranos II ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Note to VCs and other money-types.

    When a candidate talks about 'revolutionary technology' make sure you see it actually working before you give them mountains of bucks. Oh, and make sure you get it independently tested, too.

    Tech has already changed the meaning of 'innovative' to 'same as last year's model minus an interface port' now they're turning revolutionary into some ironic hipster term.

    1. Re:Theranos II ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I agree but these guys typically just say something like "this is proprietary and integral to the success of the company so we can't let people outside the company see how it actually works, you can just look at the results".

      Then greedy investors, not wanting to miss out on the next Apple, Microsoft , Google or Facebook let their emotions get the best of them. The urge to not miss out mixed with the plausible narrative of high tech secrets along with other idiot investors plowing in millions in at the same time (can all of these people be dumb? is the thought).

      The reality is that even professional investors get taken for a ride by their emotions and let all sorts of biases into the decision making process. Hardly anyone anymore is analytical and fact based, despite claims to that they are. It is all about the narrative, the "who" is involved and who else has supposedly done due diligence and it becomes a self fulfilling circle jerk of supposedly competent people all investing in the same thing mostly because they all think the other person has done more research and more diligence than them.

      Oftentimes this can actually work and the billions of dollars can produce the currently non-existent technology. Other times it doesn't work.

      At the end of the day though the real problem is with greedy INVESTORS who are more than willing to let people get away with not sharing information because they think they will miss out on the opportunity.

    2. Re:Theranos II ? by captaindomon · · Score: 2

      Then arrange a double-blind black-box analysis. That doesn't need to reveal HOW things work, it just proves that they DO work. If your target company balks at proving their device works, it's bunk.

      --
      Just because I can hook a shark from a boat, I do no offer to wrestle it in the water.
    3. Re:Theranos II ? by dasgoober · · Score: 1

      Isn't it the goal to get in early, to get a good ROI, and if it fails, just write it off?
      Maybe I'm missing something here, but other than the opportunity to invest in another venture, what did the investors lose?

    4. Re:Theranos II ? by dj245 · · Score: 1

      Note to VCs and other money-types.

      When a candidate talks about 'revolutionary technology' make sure you see it actually working before you give them mountains of bucks. Oh, and make sure you get it independently tested, too.

      Tech has already changed the meaning of 'innovative' to 'same as last year's model minus an interface port' now they're turning revolutionary into some ironic hipster term.

      My experience (in a totally unrelated industry) is that there seems to be a large amount of money out there in private equity looking for something to do. Many of the people doing such work do their due diligence (since they will immediately gut and then flip the company), but suckers are born every minute. In other cases, it seems that the investor/investee relationship is protracted battle between con artists.

      But I'm just an engineer, some big shot will probably just jump in here and tell me that I was naive to think the world worked any other way.

      --
      Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
    5. Re:Theranos II ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Any fool company willing to accept "this is proprietary and intral to the success of the company so we can't let people outside the company see how it actually works" when investing hundreds of millions of dollars is a company you should avoid at all costs as they are failing in their financial responsibilities to shareholders and are just gambling at that point.

  7. FAKE NEWS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So is this like fake news?

    1. Re:FAKE NEWS by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      Real news about a post-truth demo.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  8. "Years" by utahjazz · · Score: 4, Funny

    Pretty impressive to be "years" behind schedule, 2 years after you founded the company. They should declare "time bankruptcy" and start from scratch.

    1. Re:"Years" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The writers are showcasing their own augmented reality.

    2. Re:"Years" by slew · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Pretty impressive to be "years" behind schedule, 2 years after you founded the company. They should declare "time bankruptcy" and start from scratch.

      Not that I'm defending them, but Magic leap gave their first technology demo in 2011, so it wasn't just 2 years ago the started...

      It was 2 years ago they closed their "A" round of financing ($50M) which was technically when they started their "clock"
      Google lead their "B" round of financing ($542M)
      And earlier this year, Alibaba lead their "C" round of financing (~$800M at a $4.5B valuation),

      So they've raised ~$1.4B to date, but I'm guessing the"C" round financiers are shortly about to take a bath...

      FWIW, Magic Leap doesn't seem to be organized like a tech venture, but more like a entertainment studio. From all reports, the tech that they seem like they are developing is adapted from medical tech: a single fiber scanning endoscope technology worked on at University of Washington by Eric Seibel. The chief technical officer of Magic Leap is Brian Schowengerdt who was Mr. Seibel's research partner. Apparently, the idea is to reverse the endoscope from being a camera to being a projector. Of course there are issues involved in adapting any technology, so it's not unexpected that they have run into a boat load of trouble and are years behind. Such is the nature of high tech.

    3. Re:"Years" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I want to subscribe to your newsletter

    4. Re:"Years" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Apparently, the idea is to reverse the endoscope from being a camera to being a projector.

      Uh, huh! Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Eh? Eh?

      "Movies in the stomach!"

  9. mixed reality technology - new type of vapourware by Idisagree · · Score: 2

    It sounds like those investors had a very mixed reality already.

  10. NO KIDDING?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    NO TEXT!

  11. What's up with the haters? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    None of this has any affect on anyone except Magic Leap's investors. That's not you or anyone you know.

    1. Re:What's up with the haters? by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 1

      Pension funds are in the VC business, so you're wrong.

  12. Moore's Law = incremental change by sjbe · · Score: 5, Informative

    The reality is that the tech industry has reached a dead end with the death of Moore's Law.

    It's absolutely adorable that you think all progress in the tech industry is rooted in Moore's Law and that nothing more can be accomplished if we see a slowing in the rate at which we pack transistors into a given area on a chip.

    You will see incremental progress from here on out, but no more large leaps like we have had for the previous 40 years.

    All progress is incremental and Moore's Law is nothing if not incremental. If you didn't know that then you didn't understand what was going on. Moore's Law was just a observation of the fast but incremental development of semiconductor manufacturing. However it isn't the end-all-be-all of tech. It's not some fundamental law of nature, just an empirical observation of incremental change.

    1. Re:Moore's Law = incremental change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Example: Chip fabrication.

      The maximum speed of a chip is dictated by the distance signals have to travel. We manufacture chips as silicon wafers, cut them into little squares and put them inside epoxy packages. Components are laid out on the wafers in an optimal pattern to minimize the distances.

      How to go faster: Build chips in 3D.

      More degrees of freedom in the fabrication process means we can pack traces in multiple dimensions. Rather than our chip being the 2D surface of a die it becomes the 3D volume of a cube. Chips get much smaller and much more dense and we can theoretically pack memory into the die (which normally consumes a lot of space). Downside is cooling; that gets much harder.

      The problem is that we keep optimizing for the application and each applications changes the needed optimizations. Chips drive apps drive chips, in a feedback loop. There is no true general purpose compute model unless we can find some way to make chips that can dynamically rebuild themselves for any given task. Nanomachines? Who knows what will solve that problem.

  13. Managing Expectations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    People will over-believe what they see. I learned this many years ago, preparing animations on a SGI workstation for use in courtrooms. If a lawyer showed up with an animation of an accident, the jury took it as real and would rule for his client.

    It's a two edged sword for tech. Can't get any money unless I show a mockup or prototype. However, once a customer sees a mockup or prototype, they think it's mere inches away from production even though I tell them it's miles. I've even been told I just wanted extra money to "do science projects" instead of heading straight for production when I've tried to warn people how immature the tech was.

    1. Re:Managing Expectations by tungstencoil · · Score: 5, Interesting

      There's a lot of truth in this, and in visuals anyway. Case from my own experience:

      Early in my career, I led a small team to create a product to monitor operations of a physical system. This system was geographically situated in a such a way that different locations were located on a map. The top-level view of the system might refer to different geographic locations (e.g. "First St node" and "Highway 3 node").

      This was during the time that Google Earth was New! Exciting! AJAX?! For a prototype, we lifted *the customer's own marketing map graphic* and overlaid a colored disk at each location representing current status.

      Two side effects of the prototype demo: first, the sheer wonderment of "how did you get that?! Is it a satellite?! IS IT GOOGLE EARTH?!" Second: "How does it know the status?" "Holy crap! Maple Ave node IS RED ZOMG CALL SOMEONE WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!"

      The best part: explaining it was (1) a simple .jpg we lifted directly from their marketing swag, and (2) it was just a prototype and didn't mean anything *did not do a damned thing*. They still believed we had satellites monitoring the systems (why satellites? How would satellites know the status?)

      Seeing is, indeed, believing.

    2. Re:Managing Expectations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is EXACTLY what I've been saying about VR/AR all along. People have invested fortunes in it, and the whole concept has incredibly zealous fanboys that won't acknowledge any criticism. Yet, look at VR now and the software available for it, after half a decade. It still hasn't moved on from simple tech demos. And still I have friends that keep professing that it's gonna be THE way to play games/movies any day now.

    3. Re:Managing Expectations by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Yet, look at VR now and the software available for it, after half a decade. It still hasn't moved on from simple tech demos.

      The latest Resident Evil is available in VR. Reviews are, um, good, I guess.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    4. Re:Managing Expectations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This was during the time that Google Earth was New! Exciting! AJAX?! For a prototype, we lifted *the customer's own marketing map graphic* and overlaid a colored disk at each location representing current status.

      Two side effects of the prototype demo: first, the sheer wonderment of "how did you get that?! Is it a satellite?! IS IT GOOGLE EARTH?!" Second: "How does it know the status?" "Holy crap! Maple Ave node IS RED ZOMG CALL SOMEONE WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!"

      The best part: explaining it was (1) a simple .jpg we lifted directly from their marketing swag, and (2) it was just a prototype and didn't mean anything *did not do a damned thing*. They still believed we had satellites monitoring the systems (why satellites? How would satellites know the status?)

      This desperately needs to be called the Zoolander Effect.

    5. Re:Managing Expectations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seeing is, indeed, believing.

      If you are a manager-type retard.

    6. Re:Managing Expectations by UnderCoverPenguin · · Score: 1

      For a prototype, we lifted *the customer's own marketing map graphic* and overlaid a colored disk at each location representing current status.

      I had similar experiences years ago. This is because most people don't understand the difference between a model and "the real thing" if they can't "see" an obvious difference. Example: A canal lock system. You can build a fully functional model and (almost) no one will mistake that for the finished canal with locks. But a screen on a computer monitor showing a map with blinking dots (and whatever else) looks the same as what the finished application will. All the code "behind" the screen is invisible to them. As far as they are concerned, the screen with the map and blink dots is the application.

      Since then, I've done "chalk talk" presentations. Actually, markers on poster-sized sketches.*

      Using your example, what I might have done:

      • Plug my laptop into a project or large screen TV/monitor,
      • Go to the client's website and access their marketing map.
      • Right-click-Save Image on the map.
      • Load map image into Inkscape (or Photoshop or Illustrator, if you prefer).
      • Draw colored circles on the map image.

      (Alternately, could draw the circles on transparent, plastic "post-it" notes and stick those to the screen.)

      My "chalk talk" presentations have been very successful in getting my proposals approved. And there is no misperception that my mock-up is anything other than a mock-up.

      --

      * I prepare "foundation" drawings and print them on poster paper. Then during a presentation, I use markers to draw additional details in a way that illustrates how my proposed solution will work.

      --
      Don't try to out wierd me, three-eyes. I get stranger things than you, free with my breakfast cereal. --Zaphod Beeblebr
  14. Better Algorithms Moore's Law by ranton · · Score: 4, Interesting

    There is a good argument for better software design being more important than Moore's Law when it comes to complex breakthroughs in computing. It can be hard to quantify how algorithm improvements compare to hardware improvements, but the field of numerical algorithms gives some insight.

    In the field of numerical algorithms, however, the improvement can be quantified. Here is just one example, provided by Professor Martin Grötschel of Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik Berlin. Grötschel, an expert in optimization, observes that a benchmark production planning model solved using linear programming would have taken 82 years to solve in 1988, using the computers and the linear programming algorithms of the day. Fifteen years later – in 2003 – this same model could be solved in roughly 1 minute, an improvement by a factor of roughly 43 million. Of this, a factor of roughly 1,000 was due to increased processor speed, whereas a factor of roughly 43,000 was due to improvements in algorithms! Grötschel also cites an algorithmic improvement of roughly 30,000 for mixed integer programming between 1991 and 2008.

    My guess is we have plenty of room for improvement as we find ways to live within the confines of physics. Even if we don't find a better alternative to silicon based computing, advances in computer science has the potential to improve our computational ability by a factor of millions without needing Moore's law.

    --
    -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
  15. Re:Well, there's that old saying... FTW! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    /. I knew there was a reason I keep lurking.
    "Mod parent up!" - yeah I know it's at 5

  16. Coleco Chameleon by HalAtWork · · Score: 1

    Sounds as bad as Coleco Chameleon

  17. Re:Better Algorithms Moore's Law by AvitarX · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I saw this first hand when I purchased an HP 49G calculator.

    Many operations that would hang the 48G for seconds were instant.

    If memory serves, they had the same processor, but the 49G had been optimized. When reading that it seemed like BS, but when using it, it was a shocking increase in speed.

    --
    Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
  18. Hype is a two-edged sword by caseih · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Years ago my boss worked for a software company that sold layout and design software (desktop publishing essentially) to newspapers. They were quite successful and had a lot of clients across the world. They had a few ideas of some cool new features that they would like to build into their next release, and the boss thought it would be neat to demonstrate these future features at a major trade show, to get the clients excited. So they mocked up a convincing demo of how the product *would* work, complete with scripted mistakes (undo) and everything. They did this all live with a guy pretending to interact with the software. But it was all faked.

    Well, they were right about the clients and potential clients. They were pretty excited. Very excited as a matter of fact. So excited that all of the companies that had signed on to buy their current version of the software immediately canceled their orders in anticipation of this new version. The problem was of course that it didn't exist and wouldn't for years if ever. Unfortunately that little demo completely killed the company. Their real product just couldn't compete with the hype of their imaginary product. Had they been honest about it up front, they would probably done fine and eventually implement many of those cool features.

    1. Re:Hype is a two-edged sword by dcollins · · Score: 4, Informative

      There's actually a name for that: the Osborne effect.

      --
      We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
  19. Energy Catalyzer by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    I heard they alos solved the battery problem by using an energy catalyzer

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    and they get haptic feed back from an EM drive thrust.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  20. Company was just purchased by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    by Theranos

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
    1. Re:Company was just purchased by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      coordinated by AI

  21. FUD? Did anyone read the Articles? by Zaphoddd · · Score: 5, Informative
    Both Articles - IB Times - super short on details. Which is a nice way to say no details. And then the "The Information" Article - adds 1 more detail before you hit the $400/year paywall - "former employee's say".
    --sigh ----

    So reporter Kevin Kelly - went to magic leap, put on the prototype and says:
    Magic Leap’s solution is an optical system that creates the illusion of depth in such a way that your eyes focus far for far things, and near for near, and will converge or diverge at the correct distances. In trying out Magic Leap’s prototype, I found that it worked amazingly well close up, within arm’s reach, which was not true of many of the other mixed- and virtual-reality systems I used. I also found that the transition back to the real world while removing the Magic Leap’s optics was effortless, as comfortable as slipping off sunglasses, which I also did not experience in other systems. It felt natural.

    Is he a shill? Like folks have said here. . it's really hard to deliver. . if it wasn't, every nerd with an idea would be making a billion bucks selling us our dream come true. But this article is painfully missing facts, and sloppy with f, u, and d.

    1. Re:FUD? Did anyone read the Articles? by delt0r · · Score: 1

      If only this was the first post.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
  22. Another Theranos? Calling Elizabeth Holmes?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Well, lookey here. What a surprise.

    Elizabeth Holmes, you did it again girl! You got this whole scam thing down cold.

    Now don't forget to give a little sugar to Daddy Trump!

  23. I am Jacks absolute lack of surprise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The "technology" based on non-existed fundamental principle could not be showcased otherwise.

  24. Rebuttal by trawg · · Score: 1

    Here's an interesting rebuttal to the idea that it is "another Theranos".

    Some key points:

    - the product that was the source of this report "was not the Magic Leap's latest prototype"
    - the investors that bought into Theranos were "rich individuals whose life sciences experience began and ended with high school biology", but the Magic Leap ones were âoesending their brilliant professors from all the top schools to try and shoot us down.â

    I want Magic Leap to be real because it sounds cool. I'm disappointed that they (apparently) faked one of their demos but there are several really positive reports about it from fairly reputable individuals who have actually tried it - so I live in hope.

  25. Star Citizen by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sounds just like Star Citizen with their bullshot demos.

  26. Hololens also uses fake demos by MrSteveSD · · Score: 1

    Magic Leap's mixed reality technology has long since been overtaken by other products already on the market such as Microsoft's HoloLens

    HoloLens has almost exclusively used fake demos from the very beginning. People who have actually used HoloLens report poor field of view and semi-transparent graphics, yet the demos all show perfect wide-angle non-transparent graphics that have clearly just been composited over the video signal. Magic leap tried a similar trick for their first demo (with the steam punk ray guns) but all the subsequent videos did appear to be shot directly through their device. Of course, we never actually saw the device, so it could have just been their unwieldy and unwearable prototype. The only new information here seems to be that Magic Leap are struggling with miniaturising their scanned fibre display, but that is quite a serious issue.

  27. Adblocker by ProzacPatient · · Score: 4, Informative

    The site blurs the text and says you need to disable your adblocker to read articles. To get around it just remove the "color: transparent;" property from the style attribute of the "v_main" div.

    1. Re:Adblocker by evilviper · · Score: 1

      Entirely disabling javascript from ibtimes.co.uk works nicely as well. That's always step-1 when a site is complaining about your ad blocker. Meta redirects may need to be disabled on other sites, as well. Only rarely does it help to disable style sheets on a site.

      --
      Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
  28. well we can always fall back on old memes by Provocateur · · Score: 1

    MS bought their tech, and did the ol' embrace, extend, rig their demo, extinguish.

    Hmmm, there should be a Profit! in there, somewhere...

    --
    WARNING: Smartphones have side effects--most of them undocumented.
  29. It feels as if it was just last month... by lokedhs · · Score: 1
    It feels as if it was just last month these guys were being overhyped on this very site.

    Oh wait, it was