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Scientists Propose Plan To Re-Freeze the Arctic (inhabitat.com)

Kristine Lofgren writes: In case you've been under a rock for the past 20 years, the Arctic is melting super fast. Certain *ahem* governments are dragging their feet doing anything about it, which means the planet could be in for a spectacular meltdown within the next 20 years. But a clever bunch of scientists have hatched a plan to re-freeze the Arctic using wind-powered pumps that will bring water to the surface, allowing it to freeze. This new layer of ice could last well into the summer, which is vital, because scientists think summer Arctic ice could be gone by 2030 -- and that causes a whole chain of terrible events that will only make our climate change problem much, much worse. The plan has a $500 billion price tag, but that's pocket change compared to the cost of dealing with an ice-free Arctic. The study has been published in The American Geophysical Union's journal Earth's Future. You can read more about the study via The Guardian.

207 of 401 comments (clear)

  1. Climate change deniers by buss_error · · Score: 2, Interesting

    When I get time, I'd like to use satellite photos of the arctic into a time lapse video, play it, then ask "Now, what was it you were saying about climate change being a scam?"

    --
    Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.
    1. Re:Climate change deniers by Layzej · · Score: 4, Informative
    2. Re:Climate change deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      When I get time, I'd like to use satellite photos of the arctic into a time lapse video, play it, then ask "Now, what was it you were saying about climate change being a scam?"

      The argument is that it's cyclical and happens regardless of human action. Anyone straight "denying" is just an idiot polarized by the current state of entertainment/politics. The intelligent argument against crazy ideas like this is that companies/people are making a lot of money selling what could very well be snake oil on a process we have very little data on and therefore have very little understanding.

    3. Re: Climate change deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They're becoming activists because the science is being ignored and putting our existence in jeopardy.

    4. Re:Climate change deniers by BoogieChile · · Score: 1

      Already been done ->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj1G9gqhkYA

    5. Re:Climate change deniers by buss_error · · Score: 1

      Sometime in the past I posted notes I made when I was calibrating gas chromatography units. Over a decade O2 went down, CO2 and CO went up.
      The units varied in location from urban city centers (showed the most) to islands out to sea (showed the least). All declined at about the same proportional rates, though the absolute rates differed.

      --
      Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.
    6. Re: Climate change deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Enough already.

      "NOAA climate fraud" is your hypothesis. Fine. Test it. Collect your evidence, share it and discuss it. What must that evidence consist of?

      "Fraud" is going to be documents that show deliberate and deceptive behavior, likely for personal gain. Ok. Youneed to find evidence that demonstrates that tens of thousands of scientists across the entire world and spanning dozens of disciplines are deliberately deceiving the lay public on climate change. These scientists are faking their data, misrepresenting it and are working together to do this to deceive the lay public. Who, exactly, is coordinating this?

      Finally, a word about how the NSF grant system works: it's really, really, hard to get funded, and once you do, you must manage the fundsyou receive with great care. It is the distribution of these federal funds that is key -- lying about _anything_ is a serious problem for thelarger institution -- let alone the NSF because Congress (and likely state legislatures) come down on these institutions like a ton of bricks.

    7. Re:Climate change deniers by dbIII · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Spot on. It's perfectly normal for the climate to vary from what it was before when we've changed the atmosphere so much by adding so much carbon dioxide to it.
      Oh? You expected something else?

    8. Re: Climate change deniers by Maritz · · Score: 1

      Sorry mate, this is real life, not fairy tale bollocks.

      --
      I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
    9. Re: Climate change deniers by Maritz · · Score: 5, Informative

      It's a fraud because he doesn't like the conclusions. End of.

      --
      I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
    10. Re:Climate change deniers by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 1

      When I get time, I'd like to use satellite photos of the arctic into a time lapse video, play it, then ask "Now, what was it you were saying about climate change being a scam?"

      And presumably the other side simply pulls out this 2008 Al Gore video where he predicts that the arctic would be ice-free in 5 years:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

      Al Gore is God's gift to "deniers".

    11. Re:Climate change deniers by pastafazou · · Score: 1

      Except the satellite record starts in 1979, which may have been a peak for ice extent. Historical records indicate early 20th century warming from ~1920 to 1940 in the arctic, with Russian observations noting retreating glaciers, melting of ice islands, retreat of permafrost, decreasing sea ice, acceleration of ice drift, increased air temperatures, biological signs of Arctic warming, and increased ease of navigation: http://mclean.ch/climate/Arcti...

    12. Re:Climate change deniers by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 2

      When I get time, I'd like to use satellite photos of the arctic into a time lapse video, play it, then ask "Now, what was it you were saying about climate change being a scam?"

      And presumably the other side simply pulls out this 2008 Al Gore video where he predicts that the arctic would be ice-free in 5 years:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

      And if someone actually listens to your video of Gore, he or she will hopefully notice that Gore does not predict anything like that at all - he cites two different researchers, one who says "by 2030", and the other who says "75% chance for the next 5-7 years". The first one is still very much on track. The second one lost his bet - if via the 25% chance or because his modelling was wrong is anyones guess.

      --

      Stephan

    13. Re:Climate change deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      . "there's no discernible change in the Antarctic at any time in the year

      Actually, there is even a slight increase in the antarctic for many of the months!

      something that may indicate a problem in the Arctic in 'summer months' (4 through 9) but not a huge deal in the 'winter months" (10 through 3)'

      Summer months are important because of the ice albedo feedback.

      It's an interesting & fun graphic I'll give you that, but it doesn't 'prove' anything in terms of any major concern.

      I wasn't really trying to prove anything. Just show the data.

      Sure it might provide support for these guys getting $500B of taxpayer's money to freeze ice in the summer.

      I'm pretty sure they're not looking for funding to execute the idea. Just investigating options. They're physicists after all, not engineers. It seems pretty far fetched to try to refreeze the arctic, but some pie in the sky ideas may be required once things start to accelerate.

  2. Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by Ecuador · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Without even reading the $500 billion plan, I can tell that there is no way they have though of all the consequences of using 10 million wind powered pumps to bring water to the top for it to freeze.

    --
    Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent. Polar Scope Align for iOS
    1. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by Fragnet · · Score: 4, Funny

      I want to see them do it only because it's the most idiotic scheme I've ever heard of.

    2. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by Wycliffe · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Without even reading the $500 billion plan, I can tell that there is no way they have though of all the consequences of using 10 million wind powered pumps to bring water to the top for it to freeze.

      And isn't the Arctic ice mostly fresh water? Even if you can get the salt water to freeze, it's going to melt at a much warmer temperature and will do drastically different things to the environment than slowly melting fresh water ice.

    3. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      All sea ice is "freshwater" (or at least "fresher water"). The salt is forced out of the water when it freezes, which is why you get things like brinicles.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      I'm not sure what your point is supposed to be. I think you're confusing the on-land ice of Greenland and sea ice, but I really have no idea what you're saying. There's very little salt in ice.

    4. Re: Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      As opposed to the carefully thought out consequences of burning gigatons of ancient carbon?

    5. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by JoeMerchant · · Score: 2

      You think you're going to deploy a wind powered pump in the arctic for $5000 apiece, even at scale? Not if you want that pump to last more than a single season.

    6. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by doom · · Score: 1

      Okay, but the magnitude of the problem we're up against is so hue that anything you can think of that might make a dent in it is going to have associated numbers that make it look completely crazy.

      If the numbers don't sound insane, then it can't work.

      (Myself, I like the idea of parking nuclear submarines around Antarctica, and using them to power pumping stations to spray seawater in the interior. But I haven't crunched the numbers on that, I'm sure they look deranged as well.)

    7. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by andymadigan · · Score: 1

      For instance, Russia will bomb them.

      --
      The right to protest the State is more sacred than the State.
    8. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by Festering+Leper · · Score: 1

      So, if liquid seawater is pumped on top of the sea ice (which has little salt), where does the salt in the seawater (that was pumped on top of the ice) go? It can't diffuse into the water below it, because there is no water under it.

      --
      if you want people to think you know what you are talking about, just put ".com" at the end of everything you say.com
    9. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by franzrogar · · Score: 2

      More idiotic than when US scientists suggested to use a huge solar umbrella in the atmosphere to stop the climate change?

    10. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      Think rock salt on an ice covered sidewalk.

    11. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      That could actually be easier above a certain scale. The foil is a passive component.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    12. Re: Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by shilly · · Score: 1

      That deserves to be modded up

    13. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by ausekilis · · Score: 1

      It does kinda sound like a 1960's supervillian scheme. "First I'll freeze the Arctic! then I'll freeze the world!"

      I suppose you gotta spend $500 billion to make a trillion...

    14. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by rhazz · · Score: 3, Funny

      Don't worry, it may be entirely ineffective, but we're going to make the polar bears pay for it.

    15. Re: Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by earnil · · Score: 1

      Not really since they would have to place it into geostationary orbit:-)

    16. Re: Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by earnil · · Score: 1

      So how about not engaging in insane plans and instead working on ways to adapt to changing environment? That's how human race suceeded anyway. I know it sucks for some places, but to me these plans sound like trying to rebuild the Bering sea land bridge to travel to Asia rather than using an airplane.

    17. Re:Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

      Science doesn't work as an all or nothing process. Someone comes up with a vision that's big picture without focusing on the details, gradually other people make it more and more fleshed out, and most of the time it goes nowhere, occasionally it turns into something useful.

      When pennicillin was first discovered, no one knew how it was going to scale up from clearing out really really small circles in a dish to enough to cure a person. It took 14 years to get to treating people, and that rapid time scale was, IIRC, only because we had world wars to fight and needed it like now.

    18. Re: Without even reading the $500 billion plan... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      More like Sun-Earth L1. But year, neither lots of moving components in the Arctic (machinery hates that even when maintained) nor launching megatonnes into space seem easy in any way.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
  3. Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 5, Informative

    Here's how arctic sea ice has fared relative to IPCC projections: http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6...

    1. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Fragnet · · Score: 1

      All that tells you is that their models are wrong.

    2. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Yes. This uncertainty makes the problem much greater because we cannot presume that it will not be much worse than we expect.

    3. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Same with asteroids coming to demolish earth. Should cower in fear from all possibilities because they might be worse than we predict. Of course, humanity will just not be like you and will carry on.

    4. Re:Sea ice vs projections by BoogieChile · · Score: 1

      Actually, it also tells you that it's worse than the models predicted.

    5. Re:Sea ice vs projections by haruchai · · Score: 1, Insightful

      IPCC projections are rarely worst case; they're pretty much a consensus of the AGW proponents vs the contrarians although the latter are much fewer in number and have been for 20+ years.
      The cooligans & deniers love to point out when the IPCC warming projections are too high but I haven't seen them readily point out that their Arctic sea ice decline is too low. I have heard a lot of noise about how Antarctic sea is has been increasing (slowly), not so much about the accelerating melt of some important Antarctic glaciers nor about the unexpected decline in the salinity of Antarctic Bottom Water.

      https://phys.org/news/2017-01-...

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    6. Re:Sea ice vs projections by pslytely+psycho · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You have quite a strong opinion for someone who "Don't give a shit."

      Just another painfully obvious troll lacking any true skills at the task you have apparently chosen to devote your time to. A simpleton who sees life in only the simplest of terms lacking enough understanding of the world to face the facts head on when it's so much easier to call those more educated than you liars.
      Does having your head in the sand and ass in the air make the anal rape more bearable?
      So I curse thee thus:
      May thou live on the coast and live long enough to get the full brunt of that which thou callest foul and profane. May you end thy days fearfully gripping to top of a telephone pole trying to escape the rising waters. May you get rescued by a boatload of scientists whom immediately throw you overboard when you start spouting off nonsense. And finally may the last thing that passes through your brain be the realization that yes, you were a truly stupid person.

      --
      Donald Trump, on a crusade to make Nixon look respectable
    7. Re:Sea ice vs projections by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Climate change is a natural thing that has been happening since long before humans existed and will continue to happen long after humans are gone.

      So is the cancer that will kill you.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    8. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 1

      As far as temperature goes the CMIP5 models used in IPCC AR5 have been bang on: https://andthentheresphysics.f...

      If you compare back to the Hanson 1981 model you find that temperature has risen quite a bit faster than projected: https://patricktbrown.files.wo...

    9. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Any risk analysis should consider the tails. Don't cower in fear, but certainly take reasonable measures to mitigate the risk.

    10. Re:Sea ice vs projections by pastafazou · · Score: 1

      Here's a more up-to-date graphic: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plo...
      Not sure why yours shows less than 4 million square km in 2012, and the up-to-date one shows over 14 million square km currently. Maybe it's multi-year ice? I know the summer extent of ice in the arctic dips down to about 4Mkm^2 during summer...

    11. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 1

      NSIDC shows 2012 minimum at http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicen...

      You can click on 2016 in the key and see how last year compared

    12. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Here's once more with a clickable link: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicen...

    13. Re: Sea ice vs projections by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Jewel's bewbs.

    14. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Killall+-9+Bash · · Score: 1

      What temperature was the earth when Dinosaurs were still a thing? How much CO2 and methane were in the air?

      These rhetorical questions have been brought to you by go fuck yourself.

      --
      "Prediction: within 10 years, Windows will be a Linux distribution." Me, 7-6-2016
    15. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Killall+-9+Bash · · Score: 1

      Difference: we have the technological means to fight cancer.

      --
      "Prediction: within 10 years, Windows will be a Linux distribution." Me, 7-6-2016
    16. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Killall+-9+Bash · · Score: 1

      Maybe YOU don't have free will, you meat-robot NPC, but I assure you I do.

      --
      "Prediction: within 10 years, Windows will be a Linux distribution." Me, 7-6-2016
    17. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 1

      Here's a more up-to-date graphic: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plo... Not sure why yours shows less than 4 million square km in 2012, and the up-to-date one shows over 14 million square km currently. Maybe it's multi-year ice? I know the summer extent of ice in the arctic dips down to about 4Mkm^2 during summer...

      Arctic sea ice always retreats in summer and regrows in winter. The original graph showed development of the yearly minimum extend (which typically happens in September). September 2012 was the record low for arctic sea ice extend so far, going down to 3.3 million square kilometres (although all the last years have been below two standard deviations). At the moment, we are shortly before yearly arctic sea ice maximum - that's why we have 14 million square km. This is a record low for this time of the year. Indeed, day over day, sea ice extend has been at record low for the last few month, compared to the same day in other years. There is an excellent interactive map at the NSIDC.

      --

      Stephan

    18. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 1

      All we can do is project based on what we know. It is quite possible that things will turn out way worse than we would have guessed (as is the case here). We're executing a grand experiment and we won't know for certain just how bad things will be until it's too late.

    19. Re:Sea ice vs projections by Layzej · · Score: 1

      In the case of climate change, we know the 'asteroid' is barreling down at us. If there was no uncertainty then we could wait until the very last minute to shoot down the "asteroid". Unfortunately we don't have that luxury.

  4. Not gonna happen by LTIfox · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Russia needs ice free Arctic. For shipping and future oil rigs.

    1. Re:Not gonna happen by bluegutang · · Score: 2

      I think more accurately: Russia needs oil revenue to balance its budget. If the world stops using oil, Russia stops being a superpower. So they have to fight environmental movements at all costs.

    2. Re:Not gonna happen by Maritz · · Score: 1

      If the world stops using oil, Russia stops being a superpower.

      I guess that's Trump's attitude to climate change neatly explained then isn't it?

      --
      I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
    3. Re:Not gonna happen by Maritz · · Score: 1

      There are plants and animals that are adapted to living there. Entities that help to keep the earth habitable. I wouldn't expect you to understand.

      --
      I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
    4. Re:Not gonna happen by aliquis · · Score: 1

      If they only open up for white refugees they could get plenty which can help do other stuff.

    5. Re:Not gonna happen by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

      Russia isn't really a superpower any more.

      They're a military power, a nuclear power and a regional power, but they lack the ability to truly impact global politics (other than by influencing foreign elections to elect their puppets).

      Financially, they're not in the top 10.
      Militarily, yes, they can fire missiles at you, but they're only able to directly invade or occupy their immediate neighbours.

      Their navy is nothing impressive. For example they only have 1 Aircraft carrier, less than Australia, Egypt, France, Italy, Japan, and the US. No greater than Brazil, China, India, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, and the UK.

      So whereas their military threat poses a menace to their immediate neighbours, and their nuclear arsenal is 2nd to none, in a conventional battle they can only worry their immediate neighbours; Eastern Europe, Asia.

      Their brazenness comes down to their nuclear arsenal. Something they can't use without major repercussions. And whereas their land and air forces may be quite strong, they're not world-beaters, and in any long drawn war, Russia would lack the capital to maintain a big war or create the industry needed to sustain one. Russia is easily neutralized by stopping oil trade.

      Take away Russia's nukes and they wouldn't be a significant threat.

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  5. Prepare yourself for denialist assault. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    We can't have a discussion about solving the problem without being inundated by denialists who pretend this isn't knowable stuff. How do we solve THAT problem?

    I think that's a bigger issue than even the technological feasibility of re-freezing the arctic.

    1. Re:Prepare yourself for denialist assault. by Fragnet · · Score: 1

      It's not a problem. It's natural variability.

    2. Re:Prepare yourself for denialist assault. by haruchai · · Score: 1

      It's not a problem. It's natural variability.

      "Natural" variability is subject to the inputs into the system. If you removed sufficient heat from the system, your natural variability would be a giant ice covering, miles deep, which extended very far south, below where New York City now lies.
      As far as we know, a mere 2 degree change in the axial tilt of the Earth over 10s of 1000s of years can cause this to flip one way or the other.

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
  6. Re:One melts and one grows by dgatwood · · Score: 1

    The critical two words you omitted matter.

    One melts and one grows more slowly.

    --

    Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  7. Record low sea ice by Layzej · · Score: 1

    Global sea ice is at a record low right now - and not just by a bit: http://imgur.com/M3SBq4D

  8. Not going to happen by Baron_Yam · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Here's the chronology:

    1) You're being alarmist, there's no issue.

    2) You're being alarmist, this isn't worth spending 500 billion on.

    3) The environmental impact of attempting this could be worse than allowing things to progress naturally.

    4) Too expensive, nobody goes there anyway, and we don't need polar bears to survive. Shame, though.

    5) Well, now it's too late anyway.

    I'm actually kind of on board with #3, but I think we really ought to be getting our asses in gear and looking at the impact of mitigation strategies at the 'global environmental engineering' scale, and maybe doing a few local-scale tests to help build better models to aid in the assessments.

    1. Re:Not going to happen by dbIII · · Score: 2

      1) You're being alarmist, there's no issue.

      Indeed, there were so many people on this very web site that ranted that the Arctic would never melt.

      When did all this weird science denialism on climate start? I first noticed it around 1996 and filed it with crystal healing pyramid power, but the shit really spread.

    2. Re: Not going to happen by cyber-vandal · · Score: 2

      People resent being asked to pay more for fuel for their monster trucks.

    3. Re: Not going to happen by dbIII · · Score: 1

      People resent being asked to pay more for fuel for their monster trucks.

      There was not science denial during the oil shock. Back then the Republican Party was a Party that respected science instead of tea bagging.
      The anti-science weirdness today can't be explained as rationally as blaming it on the price of oil especially since we've just come through a recent Saudi driven oil price war designed to put our shale oil producers out of business.

    4. Re:Not going to happen by jandersen · · Score: 4, Informative

      ...we really ought to be getting our asses in gear and looking at the impact of mitigation strategies at the 'global environmental engineering' scale, and maybe doing a few local-scale tests to help build better models to aid in the assessments.

      The idiocy in this is not only in engaging in dubious and expensive schemes that will either not work, may exacerbates the instability of the climate, could be irreversible, might lead to run-away effects etc etc - but we are doing this to avoid having to simply make a few, easy adjustments to our lifestyles, like cut back on brainless consumerism and the myth that the economy must - or even can - grow forever. We are already living on borrowed time; we are using up limited resources and we still resist even thinking about renewable energy - we are only able to feed the 7+ billion people on the planet by spending lots of energy on producing artificial fetilizers (something like 40% of the nitrogen in our bodies now comes from artificial fertilizer - check for yourself). We are already at the point where it would take just 1 year or so of disruption in our chemical industries to produce a worldwide hunger catastrophe, just to put it into a bit of perspective.

      All in all, we really do need to be willing to accept changes - wasting effort on hare-brained shemes is stupid. Climate is only one of the big threats we face, and we can to some extent simply adjust to it, but unless we learn to curb overconsumption in a serious way, it won't matter all that much. Call me alarmist if you will, but I'd much rather be ridiculed by morons today, than have my children and grand-children live through the alternatives.

    5. Re:Not going to happen by Major+Blud · · Score: 1

      Call me alarmist if you will

      Then you're part of the problem. Denialism flourishes because of folks like you that make doom-and-gloom predictions that don't come true.
      https://www.bloomberg.com/view...

      we are only able to feed the 7+ billion people on the planet by spending lots of energy on producing artificial fetilizers

      You talk about lifestyle changes being required to prevent climate change, but you throw this in there? Are you trying to claim that we need to grow stuff organically instead? What are you trying to claim?

      --
      If you post as Anonymous Coward, don't expect a reply.
    6. Re:Not going to happen by ItsJustAPseudonym · · Score: 1

      Yes.

      Make. Fewer. New. People.

    7. Re:Not going to happen by swillden · · Score: 1

      Yes. Make. Fewer. New. People.

      We already are. The global birthrate peaked a few years ago. The population continues growing only because the global demographics are skewed young, so as we fill out the older cohorts the population rises. But each generation is smaller than the ones that came before and barring significant life extension the population is going to peak in 30 years or so, then start declining. This is globally; many regions of the industrialized world are already at negative population growth when you subtract out immigration.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    8. Re:Not going to happen by swillden · · Score: 1

      Climate is only one of the big threats we face, and we can to some extent simply adjust to it, but unless we learn to curb overconsumption in a serious way, it won't matter all that much.

      What are the others? Keep in mind that we're already on track to have a smaller population by the end of this century than we did at the beginning, and it's also quite clear that we'll have no trouble feeding and housing the expected peak population of just under 10B. In terms of energy generation, we're moving pretty quickly away from fossil fuels, within a few decades renewables will be cheaper. That won't happen quickly enough to head off serious climate change, but we aren't going to have population-driven energy shortages.

      So unless there are some other serious problems related to overconsumption (whatever that is), it seems to me that it just might be easier to engineer the climate than it is to engineer human behavior. Not that the former is easy, but the latter is damned near impossible.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    9. Re:Not going to happen by fish_in_the_c · · Score: 1

      of course the consequence of that is that 'the young and reproductive' of other countries are entering and replacing the indigenous population that has stopped reproducing. Darwin would claim that the more productive shall win. I guess we will see.

      --
      âoeTolerance applies only to persons, but never to truth. Intolerance applies only to truth, but never to persons.
    10. Re: Not going to happen by cyber-vandal · · Score: 1

      I'll clarify: they resent the government trying to encourage them not to buy ludicrous gas guzzlers using taxation. The oil shock could be blamed on Ay-rabs.

    11. Re:Not going to happen by swillden · · Score: 1

      of course the consequence of that is that 'the young and reproductive' of other countries are entering and replacing the indigenous population that has stopped reproducing. Darwin would claim that the more productive shall win. I guess we will see.

      You missed the point. The global birthrate has peaked and is declining. That includes those young and reproductive. They're still reproducing at more than replacement rate, but they're trending downward, too. And much of the developed world is already well below replacement rate. Some northern European countries have actually started public service advertising campaigns encouraging couples to make babies, because the declining population numbers are playing havoc with their labor market and their economic structure (especially pension systems).

      It turns out that birthrate is positively correlated with infant and child mortality and negatively correlated with wealth and female education. Better access to medical care reduces infant and child mortality, which appears to reduce the motivation of parents to make lots of 'em, just in case. Wealth and female education both enable family planning, and while women generally like babies, they also don't want to have more than they can really manage or care for. And given the very low baseline much of the world is at, wealth and education levels are exploding. People are still living in what you and I would consider unbearable poverty, but it's dramatically better than what the last generation had.

      These facts also point out exactly how we can take action to reduce population even faster: Work harder to empower and educate more people in the third world. Actually, great progress is being made in the poor areas of Asia. The big opportunities are in Africa. Teach African men to farm more effectively, make education more available to men and women, make medical supplies and facilities more accessible, and provide international oversight to reduce the damage done by their kleptocratic (and in some cases, genocidal) governments, and you'll make peak population happen sooner, and at a lower level.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    12. Re:Not going to happen by jandersen · · Score: 1

      I feel I should make the effort to reply, since you seem to have taken it personally in a way that I didn't intend.

      Since you're so willing to callously throw around epithets I'll engage your desires..."you're a moron"

      You're welcome. And perhaps you are right - I wouldn't call it callous, though; callous people don't care, and I do. I sometimes start getting rather agitated about these issues, because I feel so many people are being willfully ignorant - they know the facts, but they choose to either ignore or misinterpret them in order to avoid reaching an uncomfortable conclusion.

      1) 'resist even thinking about renewable energy'? Seriously, so what's all this solar, wind & other 'renewable energy' technology going in to production at 'record rates' that we keep hearing about?

      It is good that there are increasing numbers who are moving that way, certainly. Regrettably, there are still many, who actively work against renewable energy - even people in powerful positions - so I think it is justified when I say that they resist even thinking about renewable energy, and they are also trying to prevent the rest of us from striving in that direction.

      2) 'brainless consumerism' - who says its 'brainless'? Exactly what parts of the purchasing & use of products is 'brainless' in regards to people either enjoying their lives more, making it easier to live or being able to support the growing population?

      Well, I was being polemic - what better word would you suggest for the fact that we over-produce goods are harmless to our health and the environment, and which to a great extent simply go to waste? Or products that do nothing to improve our lives, but simply drain our resources? It's what you can call stupid luxury: like when people buy expensive luxury foods that they don't like and can't really afford, only to throw it out.

      Seriously you actually worry about how or what your grandchildren may have to live through?

      It's called parenting instinct - many animals have this. When we have children, we want them to succeed and have good lives, and because as humans we can think far ahead, it is natural to do so. We can, so we should. Nothing religious about it.

      As it is now, as long as we remain stuck here, regardless of what we do or don't do about climate change & all the other major issues that could or will cause our demise human kind is doomed anyway...

      Getting off this planet may well happen at some point, but I don't think it will happen before we have learned to live sustainably on this planet; and anyway, if we can't live within the very generous resource limits we have here, how would we be able to survive in space or on another planet in the solar system, where things are far less favourable? But as I keep saying, it would really be such a small effort to change our ways.

  9. Cost/benefit by archer,+the · · Score: 1

    They'd have to find how much GHG, etc, they'd emit manufacturing, shipping, and installing all of those wells and pumps. Then compare that with installing $500 billion of wind turbines, solar PV, etc.

  10. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Mr0bvious · · Score: 2, Informative

    What's your point? Because a ship got stuck in some ice are you inferring there is no Arctic ice melting issue?

    Eeek, I hope you're not in a decision making position there.

    --
    Never happened. True story.
  11. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by hyades1 · · Score: 2

    So because one ship got stuck in the ice IN THE FUCKING ARCTIC, there's no problem with loss of Arctic ice?

    Did you mean this argument seriously, or are you just another Koch Brothers troll?

    --
    I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
  12. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by dwywit · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Well, that settles it. Nothing to worry about, folks. Just keep consuming those finite resources and let your grandchildren worry about any problems.

    --
    They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
  13. The water they pump to the surface has to freeze.. by Fly+Swatter · · Score: 1, Informative

    And that water isn't frozen when it is below the surface, so it contains some heat. I guess that heat will just radiate into the atmosphere, with no ill effects. Just what the Arctic needs, a giant heat pump!

  14. Re:This by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    You don't see the big deal about some countries ceasing to exist due to rising sea levels?

  15. What about Arctic precipitation? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

    There are long-standing speculations about decrease of ice in the Arctic possibly causing more evaporation from this ocean, hence more precipitation around it. Before we go about refreezing the area, let's see if this effect occurs.

    1. Re:What about Arctic precipitation? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      There are long-standing speculations about decrease of ice in the Arctic possibly causing more evaporation from this ocean, hence more precipitation around it.

      The big problem with that idea is that water vapor is a GHG. We don't want more evaporation.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:What about Arctic precipitation? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      "The big problem with that idea is that water vapor is a GHG. We don't want more evaporation."

      Significant evaporation, enough to form clouds, would increase the area's albedo, just as if it were still an ice sheet. Let's see if this effect overpowers the greenhouse effect of water.

    3. Re:What about Arctic precipitation? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Significant evaporation, enough to form clouds, would increase the area's albedo, just as if it were still an ice sheet.

      No, that's not how it works. The clouds have to be very dense before they help more than they hurt. This is because when the water vapor is struck by UV, it reradiates IR in all directions. As well, sunlight which comes in at an angle gets through the clouds. And finally, it takes about a yard of ocean to absorb all the UV, although most of it is absorbed in the first foot. If you have less water than that in the atmosphere, then yes it works as a GHG. Please look this stuff up before you hurt yourself.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  16. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Opportunist · · Score: 4, Funny

    Didn't you get the memo? The resources aren't finite, they're infinite. Oil grows back because it's not fossil fuel. Silly evolutionists, how could it be fossil fuel, the Earth is only 6000 years old!

    Well DUH!

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  17. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Mr0bvious · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So, it's not "well understood", oh great, let's just ignore it then and say there's no problem hey?

    I can think of a lot of "problems" that are not well understood. They are problems all the same.

    --
    Never happened. True story.
  18. Maybe we should just go on without the US by Opportunist · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    You know what creationism and climate change denial have in common? Nobody outside the US takes them serious.

    Maybe it is time to simply cut the loss and leave them behind. Yeah, it's sad but you can't save 'em all.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re:Maybe we should just go on without the US by Triklyn · · Score: 1

      speaking as a yank, a lot of us would be fine with it. because no matter the leaning politically, i think the majority of americans think that first and foremost, the US should be self-sufficient.

      build up that wall, the US is fine by itself. on the other hand, then you gotta ask yourself... with the US out of the picture, who's got more nukes than russia? serves as counterpoint to chinese territorial ambitions, north korean... north korean-ness. and keeps paying pakistan to play nice with india, and egypt and saudi arabia to not fuck up the jews?

      hell, the europeans might have to spend a pretty penny on defense again. except the poles and the english and what, the estonians? because apparently they're the only ones ok with not getting invaded and conquered. because the english are pessimists and the poles and estonians have memories.

      and you've gotta figure out what to do with the jihadists, because once that wall is closed, they're going after each other, then they're onto israel, which someone will have to step up to help, or there will be nukes... then it's you guys with us off the table.

    2. Re:Maybe we should just go on without the US by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      Hush! Don't give it away now, they've ALMOST swallowed it!

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    3. Re:Maybe we should just go on without the US by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      As North Korea has shown, you only need one nuke to make everyone else back off. France should take care of that problem.

      As for the US: Where do you plan to get your cheap oil from when you can't bully countries into giving it to you anymore?

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    4. Re:Maybe we should just go on without the US by Triklyn · · Score: 1

      no, you need need 1 nuke...

      and, fuck all bats left in the belfry, iron-fisted control of the actions and minds of 25 million men women and children, and no fucking upside to invading your country other than "human rights."

  19. Can anyone explain how this could even work? by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

    As I understand it, the problem is that X joules of energy enter the earth from sunlight. Y amount of energy leaves. Energy balance is X-Y. Thanks to greenhouse gasses, Y is now smaller. So net energy is being gained by the earth and it is warming up. This is why the ice is melting.

    If the wind powered pumps don't affect Y, I don't see how this does anything.

    1. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by z3alot · · Score: 2

      Arctic ice affects Y by the albedo effect.

      It sucks because warming removes arctic ice, which no longer reflects sunlight, which causes more warming. The summary suggests that when (in the future) arctic ice goes away completely during the summer, this will be very bad.

    2. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      Ah. That's bad. Though I've heard quoted price tags of a mere 10 billion a year or so to inject particles in the upper atmosphere to reflect light away - that sounds like a better idea. The injection stations also don't have to be in the arctic.

    3. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by judoguy · · Score: 1

      Yeah! Who needs to see the stupid stars anyway.

      --
      Peace is easy to achieve, just surrender. Liberty is much harder get/keep.
    4. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      Well it's also likely that 10 million pumping stations in the arctic are more expensive than anticipated. So it might be 3 trillion instead of 500 million

      A pipe supported by gigantic aerostats is also probably going to be more than 10 billion, but 60 billion is still affordable. 3 trillion is not. You already can't really see the stars in urban areas, where most people live, and space telescopes are a thing.

    5. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by Whorhay · · Score: 1

      My hesitation with that possible solution is that what kind of unforeseen consequences we might encounter as it would be an untried technique. With the pumping to create more ice, we at least know what the previous extent and thickness was like. Which means we have very measurable targets we can aim for and know what kind of consequences to expect for the most part. My concerns with the pumping though are not non-existent, however I think it would be a safer and better understood process.

    6. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      With the atmospheric injection, it's been proposed to use sulfur dioxide, since there are naturally occurring experiments where volcano's release a bunch of that.

      I've also read it's possible to make lighter than air reflective beads and inject them into the upper atmosphere (no idea what they are made out - they are probably very tiny). As long as the beads aren't toxic, and they have a consistent reflectivity, predicting the results is fairly easy. Also you don't have to do it all at once - you can inject some and measure what happens. If it turns out to be a bad thing or to cause more cooling than expected, just don't inject as much on the next dose. This is a straightforward process - what's really happening is a lot of politically correct people are against it because they are morons and they feel this would encourage the further use of fossil fuels since it removes the primary known harm.

    7. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by Whorhay · · Score: 1

      The sulfur dioxide idea interests me, I'll have to go read more about that.

      I would avoid the lighter than air beads unless they are biodegradable. My concern there is that even if the beads are not toxic themselves they could absorb toxins over time and perhaps find their way back down to the lower atmosphere somehow. Basically if we can accomplish the same thing using chemicals that are already naturally produced and part of the system, I don't see the advantage in creating a technological solution that could introduce more risks we don't understand.

    8. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      The potential problem I see is that cutting down on sunlight is likely to have other effects. Solar power will become less efficient. Plants may not grow as well.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    9. Re:Can anyone explain how this could even work? by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

      We're talking about a very small change. Just enough to stabilize the climate.

  20. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Umm the climate scientists on board expected there to be no ice where they were going and well got stuck in a whole shit ton of ice. Same thing in Antartica happend to these so called climate scientists. There models are really not in line with real observations of there being shit tons of ice up there right now.

  21. Re:Pure Folly: CDS by coastwalker · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Actually it was the same shit made up story junk news sources who are climate change deniers who were crying about an ice age in the 70's. Nothing other than a couple of quickly disproved papers ever suggested that an ice age was coming. The problem with man made climate change is that it is happening in a very short time frame and human systems and ecological systems are not robust against the short term change. Geological climate change would not bother us so much because it happens over a long time scale.

    The National Enquirer counts for critical thinking for morons like you. The fact that the same paid for lobby companies that denied tobacco caused cancer are now strident climate change skeptics gives the game away. Only fools who fall for propaganda are still denying the problem of climate change. The rest of the species have moved on to how to solve the problem.

    Pumping water in the Arctic is not a solution, it addresses the symptoms and not the cause. The solution is to cut greenhouse gases and everything will balance out again without flooding Bangladesh and the other problems that climate change is bringing. Fortunately human technology has the solution in hand if only the cretins shut up who insist on making that extra bit of wealth for the super rich by burning more coal and drilled oil.

    You really do look extremely stupid, consigning millions of poor brown people in the tropics to death due to flooding and crop failure for your rich overlords. What a pathetic excuse for a man you are when you spout lies and nonsense on behalf of the people who already make their excessive living off of your own back. Have you no shame? you are a disgrace to humanity. Stand up take some responsibility and learn the science instead of repeating evil propaganda from the alt right.

    --
    Facts are history now plebs have politics for religion on social media.
  22. Re:This by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    I divided the situation up into symptoms and problems. The potential of a country ceasing to exist is a problem. The solution may in fact be to migrate the people elsewhere, but that doesn't make the things I identified as merely symptoms problems.

  23. 500 billion? by galabar · · Score: 1

    With a b?

  24. Cost by Dan+East · · Score: 1

    The plan has a $500 billion price tag, but that's pocket change compared to the cost of dealing with an ice-free Arctic.

    Wouldn't billions be saved in shipping and transportation expenses if the Arctic was ice-free? That shortens the distance to Asia right?

    --
    Better known as 318230.
    1. Re:Cost by Sperbels · · Score: 1

      That shortens the distance to Asia right?

      Nope. The distance between Asia to every other places still remains exactly the same.

    2. Re:Cost by ClickOnThis · · Score: 1

      That shortens the distance to Asia right?

      Nope. The distance between Asia to every other places still remains exactly the same.

      In a pedantic sense, yes.

      In a practical sense (per the distance of shipping lanes) perhaps not. But I hardly think ice-free poles, and the accompanying global rise in temperatures and sea-levels, are worth the other consequences. And those include war, mass migration of refugees, shifting of zones of arable land, uncertain survivability of plants moved to different latitudes, and so on.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
    3. Re:Cost by Sperbels · · Score: 1

      Oh hi Buzzkill, I didn't see you arrive.

  25. Glaciers used to cover all of New England by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    How far back do we want to rewind the clock to "normal"? New York, Boston and Chicago not too long ago used to be under sheets of ice a mile or more thick. Is that "normal"? Should we arbitrarily pick 1950 as the "normal" to rewind the ice clock? Maybe pre-industrial revolution? Who is say having glaciers is "normal" at all?

    1. Re:Glaciers used to cover all of New England by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      How far back do we want to rewind the clock to "normal"? New York, Boston and Chicago not too long ago used to be under sheets of ice a mile or more thick. Is that "normal"? Should we arbitrarily pick 1950 as the "normal" to rewind the ice clock? Maybe pre-industrial revolution? Who is say having glaciers is "normal" at all?

      You probably want to have it at some point where humans can work live and feed themselves. We -very likely, but the jury is still out - had a condition called "snowball Earth" long ago. We also had another age of coal forming with high CO2 and O2 levels. Not likely we'd want to go back to either of those ages.

      Sounds like you are of the mind that "Oh well, we'll all be raptured in my lifetime, so what, me Worry?"

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    2. Re:Glaciers used to cover all of New England by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Typical Christian "trash the hotel room" mentality. That's why I worry about them more than Muslims.

      Islam is big, and getting bigger fast. Worry about Christianity later. The people ru[ni]ning things aren't really Christians, even when they say they are.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:Glaciers used to cover all of New England by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      I sometimes read about how American Christians refuse to accept evolution theory in class rooms and even teach creation next to evolution.

      In my country they do no longer teach evolution and even teach an alternative history that skips all former empires and let it start with Mohamed. I even hear non Muslim kids recite the Koran. Why is that? Because our schools are now teaching Islam and have changed the content of the lessons in such a way that no Imam will be offended. This is in a traditional Catholic country and most kids learn that Jesus was just a prophet who never died on the cross.
       
      Even in universities lessons are interrupted by an angry mob of Islamists. The result is that Islamic students don't have to get study points in evolution, even not when they are learning to become a doctor.
      And when everyone who criticizes this situation is immediately put away as an Islamophobe and is seen as the cause of all world problems you understand you can no longer change the situation. And then you have come to the conclusion that you no longer feel home in your own country. And you look at the 'free' world where you see politicians but also the non redneck people make the same mistake. They underestimate the power of Islam. Victimhood has been invented and perfected by Muslims.
       
      Just last week a Mosque that sponsored IS in the name of charity and sold drugs and stolen goods to fund their 'charity' was closed. Although about 50 young boys and about 70 young girls of their community went to the caliphate in Syria and Iraq, they still play the victim card. The muslims told they were victims of racists. Racists put the drugs and stolen goods in their mosque and they are now acting like the poor people who were attacked by an angry mob and have to pray outside on the streets in the cold and rain. And of course weak people claim that the 'white man' should be ashamed to throw those 'poor Muslims' on the streets, completely ignoring the fact that they laundered over 30 million euro in 2016 alone. That's not what I call poverty...

      But yeah, mod everyone down, say everyone lies, say that Islam is not bad, say that it is in every ones interest to also convert to Islam, but don't be surprised when a fascist politician will be chosen and when the EU falls apart in the next 10 years.

  26. It's terrifying... by daninaustin · · Score: 1

    that 3.2 mm/year rise is terrifying. I'll play some music signaling impending doom and you can start running. Either that or stop watching ridiculous disaster movies on TV.

    1. Re:It's terrifying... by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      That average is not the problem. The big problems are, sudden thaw of the permafrost releasing methane due to a weather event, causing a major short term rise, leading to more methane be released. Also there are solar peak outputs to consider, we just moved out of an ebb and now high solar output is due. So yeah, that average does not even touch extreme weather events, not just earth's but the sun as well. That is what is driving the real concern, if only perfect averages would work on everything, Casinos playing craps would go bankrupt of course because only seven would ever be rolled, the average.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  27. Last I heard it has been growing by wisnoskij · · Score: 1
    --
    Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
  28. Or.. by xettera · · Score: 1

    Pumping >0C water onto the remaining ice will accelerate the melting

    1. Re:Or.. by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      Pumping >0C water onto the remaining ice will accelerate the melting

      Not in the winter. As a real world example, Canadians will pour water over outside skating rinks during the winter, and it refreshes the ice surface. No Zamboni needed. I read somewhere they heat the water as well. Can any of our Canadian friends let us know - if you are still talking to the crazy Americans?

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    2. Re:Or.. by ClickOnThis · · Score: 1

      Pumping >0C water onto the remaining ice will accelerate the melting

      Not in the winter. As a real world example, Canadians will pour water over outside skating rinks during the winter, and it refreshes the ice surface. No Zamboni needed. I read somewhere they heat the water as well. Can any of our Canadian friends let us know - if you are still talking to the crazy Americans?

      If the ambient temperature is above freezing, then the ice will melt, whether you put water on it or not. If it is below freezing, then water applied to the ice surface will freeze. If it's windy, it just melts or freezes faster. "Wind chill" just refers to what the temperature feels like to us, not what it actually is.

      Of course, artifical ice rinks have refrigeration units that chill the surface that the ice is applied to. So, they can survive even if the ambient temperature is above freezing. Good thing, too -- hockey arenas can get a bit warm when they're filled up with fans.

      --
      If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
    3. Re:Or.. by Imrik · · Score: 1

      That will refresh the ice surface, but it will also reduce the thickness of the ice if you don't have some form of cooling to compensate. That isn't much of a concern for skating rinks but would completely defeat the purpose for the arctic ice.

    4. Re:Or.. by locofungus · · Score: 1

      Pumping >0C water onto the remaining ice will accelerate the melting

      No, not in winter.

      The problem in winter is that ice (and snow on top of it) is a good insulator that, once the ice reaches around 1-2m thick causes it to continue to thicken very slowly.

      It's one of the reasons why the sea ice minimum is falling faster than the maximum - the arctic winter is cold enough to (almost) completely refreeze every year but that resultant ice isn't thick enough to survive a summer season. That's why there's so much interest in tracking the multi-year ice. That's the thick stuff.

      Unfortunately, measuring volume is much harder to do so ice extent and ice area tend to take centre stage even if they're not the best metric for the state of the ice in the arctic.

      Pumping water to the top of the ice would allow the ice to thicken much more than it currently can in a single winter.

      --
      God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = -@B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t," and there was light.
  29. Oh geesh by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 3, Informative

    The Ice level in the arctic is a symptom, not the cause. Otherwise, is this story from the Onion or something?

    --
    The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    1. Re:Oh geesh by gumpish · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Ice reflects substantially more infrared energy back into space than seawater. Lowering the Earth's albedo will MAKE melting ice caps a cause of warming.

    2. Re:Oh geesh by iisan7 · · Score: 1

      If 100% of global energy demand was met by solar, wouldn't that further increase global warming by reducing the Earth's albedo? Although I have not sense of whether the effects would be more or less significant than from CO2...

  30. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

    It is our manifest destiny to be fruitful and multiply, to reap the bounties of the earth which were provided for us.

  31. Where have we heard this before by Stonent1 · · Score: 1

    Scientists have missed every prediction on global warming since then whole craze started.

    1. Re:Where have we heard this before by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Citation Required.

  32. Re:In 2007 it was ice free in 2016 by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

    Seems like one or two scientists can say something that doesn't happen, and your math skills are so bad you think that they all did.

    --
    The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
  33. or they could use ice_9 by kencurry · · Score: 1

    nice, nice, very nice.

    --
    sigs are for losers (except to point out that sigs are for losers)
    1. Re:or they could use ice_9 by MrLogic17 · · Score: 1

      +1 internets for the nerd reference

  34. Entropy by mcswell · · Score: 1

    The local effect might be cooling, but overall...

    1. Re:Entropy by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Earth isn't a closed system.

      The primary reason to want more ice coverage is to reflect more light into space. Thus taking away the energy contained within that light.

  35. Re:"Dragging their feet" - can't be the U.S. by ClickOnThis · · Score: 1

    The U.S. already lowered carbon emissions enough to meet the Kyoto targets, years ago.

    From the very beginning of the article you cited:

    New EIA data shows USA inadvertently meets 1997 Kyoto protocol CO2 emission reductions without ever signing on thanks to a stagnant economy. Lowest level of CO2 emissions since 1994.

    So, let's not gloat, m'kay?

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  36. It won't work, here's why by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    The plan appears to assume the problem is water transport to the poles. That is, the poles are cold enough but the problem is a lack of water to freeze on the surface.

    Yet when there is global warming the first thing that happens is moisture transport increases. More water evaporates into clouds and some of it, more of it, goes to the poles than before.

    Thus the long term problem is not a lack of water transport.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  37. Ice Free Arctic is the future by ChadSmith4920 · · Score: 1

    Once the ice is gone the mother ship will be revealed, containing all the technology and knowledge needed to save the planet

  38. What about Iceland? by ShoulderOfOrion · · Score: 1

    Last I heard there were four volcanos in Iceland about to blow us into the next ash-cloud ice age. Can we re-purpose these ice fans as volcanic ash blowers?

  39. The plan is to pull water to the surface. by robbak · · Score: 4, Informative

    Normally, the sea ice freezes over the water, capping it off and insulating it. Heat soaks only slowly through the ice, cooling the water under the ice and freezing it, slowly.

    Instead, if we pump seawater up and drop it on the top of the ice, it will freeze quickly. So we can increase the thickness of the ice, so it will, hopefully, last longer.

    If done on a large scale, however, it will warm the arctic winter, as heat is added to the system in the form of liquid water to be frozen, water surface that is 0 degrees C instead of solid ice at maybe -20 degrees C. The increased ice is probably a net positive for the artctic, but I dislike all these goengineering kludges.

    --
    Prediction for end of Universe #42: Fencepost error in Quantum_bogosort.cpp
  40. I read through this plan by no1nose · · Score: 1

    The problem is that it releases more greenhouse gasses than it traps. All we can really do is stop using carbon based fuels and wait it out. Or find a new place to live.

    1. Re:I read through this plan by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The problem is that it releases more greenhouse gasses than it traps.

      This has nothing to do with GHGs. This is about Albedo, and maintenance of ice that partly drives the weather systems upon which we depend.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  41. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by dbIII · · Score: 2

    An interesting thing is that in 1931 due to so much ice the Wilkins expedition couldn't even get into the Arctic.
    In a submarine.

    That was an especially cold year and a submarine that couldn't go very deep, but still that shows a massive difference.

  42. Re:Who's going to build these pumps? by Dutchmaan · · Score: 1

    This may be unrelated but I seem to remember learning about railroads and the tundra and the problem of the pressure causing melting and thus causing the tracks to bend, so they came up with a solution of a machine (canister) that contained ammonia. The ammonia would condense and drop to the bottom of the tanks where it would boil and rise to the top where heat sinks would dissipate any collected heat. It worked really well because for all practical purposes it had no moving parts and lasted indefinitely, constantly working to take heat from the ground and keep it frozen. I just remember it being a very elegant solution for that particular problem.. not saying that's the solution here, but it always doesn't have to be some enormous feat of engineering.

  43. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Highdude702 · · Score: 1

    Is extinction one of those things that didn't happen until humans came along also?

  44. don't play nature (god) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Let nature correct the heat. All we should do is replant forests that were burned/stripped. Also we should eat less fish because the oceans have swallowed a lot of the CO2 and they need to offload that carbon to something. And isn't it time to get an electric car like tesla by now? We should invest in more "green" energies and less coal to power the electric cars and our homes.

  45. Re:More things to consider by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    Wind power efficiency is really low.

    When used mechanically, wind power efficiency is very high. You can build a wind turbine over 80% efficient out of trash in your back yard.

    In addition to that that much energy WILL slow down the winds and will cause a different type of climate cataclysmic fuck up.

    [citation needed]

    (I happen to know that this is false, so I'd really, really love to see you look for that citation and shake your tiny fist at google.)

    Also, the number of birds killed by the wind power and the number of sea lives perished due to the changed natural ocean flows will be much greater than the biodiversity lost due to the climate change.

    The number of birds flying around the Arctic is very low. The point of maintaining the ice is maintaining the usual ocean currents.

    For the record, warmer earth means more habitable land on earth.

    [citation needed]

    In fact, we don't know how much habitable land we'll end up with, we only know that we'll have less land and that much of what is now habitable won't be.

    Are you just trolling, or spectacularly wrong? Professional curiosity.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  46. Re:All the more reason to gloat. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    America is so awesome it lowers CO2 without even trying, and you say not to gloat? Whoa man, that some seriously absurd spin you have there! Doesn't matter HOW you meet the goals, as long as they are met.

    America either isn't awesome because it's failing, or this is a temporary detente and we'll be right back up the curve in a moment.

    I can see where there may be some danger since Trump is fixing the economy, but I wouldn't worry at the move to solar and other renewable sources is inevitable.

    Yeah, but it can be put off for some time yet, and it may have already been put off too long.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  47. Good news everybody! by smurf975 · · Score: 1

    Sounds like a plan from futurama.

    --
    -- I don't buy it, I grow it.
  48. Re:This by shilly · · Score: 1

    I'm sure we can rely on you to offer up your bedroom to an immigrant family when the time comes.

  49. Re:One melts and one grows by Maritz · · Score: 1

    Cherry picking. Intellectual cowardice at its finest. You are no different to creationists.

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  50. Re:This by Maritz · · Score: 2

    As a species we should be attempting to salvage as much of the biosphere as possible. Sadly, most of us are useless, dumb, myopic dickheads with our heads in the fucking sand. I'm not one, but I guess you are.

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  51. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Maritz · · Score: 2

    I bet you think snow disproves climate change. That's really no less dumb than what you just came out with.

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  52. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Maritz · · Score: 1

    Just plan to pay for it later when the next generation asks why you did it.

    lol. I think you best be careful before you punch a hole in reality with sheer irony. You're talking about future generations? You're the cunt that claims there's no problem. You'll still be saying that when the water's lapping around your dumbass ankles.

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  53. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by Maritz · · Score: 1

    Arable land is down. GMO increases yields. I expect you're opposed to those, seeing as that's the idiotic position to take on the matter?

    --
    I do not want your cheap brainburning drugs. They are useless for work. And I am a working man today.
  54. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by hyades1 · · Score: 1

    And probably about all you're capable of.

    --
    I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
  55. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by hyades1 · · Score: 1

    So that means "no problem"?

    Oh, please!

    --
    I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
  56. Cheaper and better plan by TheCarp · · Score: 1

    So if the United States took this up alone and paid for it; it is a better use of money than:

    - the F35.
    - paying other countries to buy military equipment from us to prop up jobs.
    - Mass Surviellance: this is 1/3rd the cost of JUST the Utah Datacenter

    --
    "I opened my eyes, and everything went dark again"
    1. Re:Cheaper and better plan by Whorhay · · Score: 1

      I would agree that it is likely a better use of money than those things you list. I was unaware that the Utah Datacenter was costing us $1.5 Trillion, that seems a bit excessive even for our government. Are you sure you read the article summary properly?

    2. Re:Cheaper and better plan by TheCarp · · Score: 1

      no but I was also running a fever over 100 at the time so I am going to blame that for why I couldn't compare numbers properly.

      Point um....taken :)

      --
      "I opened my eyes, and everything went dark again"
  57. Two Problems by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    1) Thermodynamics wins - to freeze the arctic they will actually generate more heat increasing overall heating of the planet. Bad idea.

    2) The arctic has thawed before. This is a cycle. We don't understand things enough to start messing with this stuff.

    1. Re:Two Problems by jeff4747 · · Score: 2

      1) Thermodynamics wins - to freeze the arctic they will actually generate more heat increasing overall heating of the planet.

      Only if you think the Earth is a closed system. It is not.

      The point to having more ice coverage is to reflect more light back into space. Thus taking the energy contained within that light away from Earth.

      2) The arctic has thawed before. This is a cycle.

      The fact that something has happened before does not make it a cycle. And the fact that it is happening again does not mean it is part of a natural cycle.

      In the past, Earth was completely covered in ice. It was also completely ice free. Humans will find it difficult to survive in anywhere near our current population in either of those extremes.

    2. Re:Two Problems by pubwvj · · Score: 1

      A bit more science and Earth history please... It is a cycle.

      You also don't appear to understand the thermodynamics issue. The problem is using energy to cool the arctic will actually warm things because no cooling technology is 100% efficient. In fact, they aren't even anywhere close. Refrigeration systems are really heat pumps that move the energy from one place to another and add energy to that stream. This results in the place the heat is dumped being a lot hotter while achieving only a little cooling. The overall net of the system is warming.

      Let's stick with science rather than wishful thinking.

  58. What gov are dragging? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    China, India, Russia? Japan and Germany are joining those 3 and adding lots of coal plants. Or were you speaking about the large number of 3rd world nations that are doing nothing?

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  59. Re: Who's going to build these pumps? by earnil · · Score: 1

    It's impossible that it works without external power source. You have all sorts of losses in process like that, for it to work indefinitely there would have to be lossless process. Only instance I know of where permafrost has to be kept frozen artificially is railway to Lhasa and that's massively costly from both money and energy point of view.

  60. Al Gore predicted... by mchall · · Score: 1

    ...that the Arctic would be "ice-free by 2013" in his December 10, 2007 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech. How has that worked out for you fear-mongers?. Go peddle your panic somewhere else.

    1. Re:Al Gore predicted... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Cool story, bro. Here's what he actually said:

      Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years.

      So Al Gore didn't predict anything, he cited an actual researcher.

      The Navy researcher that leads this "new study" team that the former vice president alludes to is Wieslaw Maslowski at the Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, California. The team's research was funded by the Department of Energy (DOE), the Office of Naval Research (ONR), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

      Maslowski also did not say "by 2013" in his original research in 2007 or when it was republished in 2009. This grandstanding about sea ice and Gore, for whatever reason, is a huge and egregious deception. The actual prediction from Maslowski's 2009 publication is, "Autumn could become near ice free between 2011 and 2016."

      And not even the researcher who did make a prediction said exactly what you claim they said.

      However, now that we have actual measurements for 2011-2016, we can see that the lowest autumn sea ice extent for the period in question was 3.389 million km^2 (Sep 16 2012). That's the lowest on record and less than half as much as the same day in 1979, but arguably still too high to call it "near ice free". So Maslowski's worst-case prediction didn't come true, and now you can be less wrong on the internet.

    2. Re:Al Gore predicted... by mchall · · Score: 1

      Gore's speech was referencing a 2007 paper by Wieslaw Maslowski which gave a time frame of "only 9 more years or until 2016 plus or minus 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer." So, your stellar math skills aside, this was his frame of reference. Strangely, by September 2013 (the end of the first Summer at the lower end of Maslowski's time frame) the polar icecap was at its highest level for that time of year since 2006 ( http://www.cnsnews.com/news/ar... ). Try again, sport.

  61. Re:In 2007 it was ice free in 2016 by iserlohn · · Score: 1

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    Of course, you can always just yell those facts are 'fake'.

  62. Re:All the more reason to gloat. by donutz · · Score: 1

    Well certainly insightful, but I'd suggest that a large portion of the modern left really does care, but is severely misguided in their attempts at caring. Like trusting the politicians that only care about the appearance of caring.

  63. Re:This by Dread_ed · · Score: 1

    "Salvage as much of the biosphere as possible"

    Why? Nothing ever did this before. There have been innumerable extinction events drastically worse for the biosphere than any of the most dire predictions of global warming. The Earth will be fine in a couple of million years, one way or another.

    Consider: if it weren't for repeated global disasters that wiped out most of the species on the planet humans would not exist.

    --
    When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
  64. Re:More things to consider by omnichad · · Score: 1

    You can build a wind turbine over 80% efficient out of trash in your back yard.

    Does this apply to everyone's backyard? I have a few leaves, half a styrofoam cup, and a large toy inflatable ball that blew in from the neighbor's yard. Please send me the plans at your earliest convenience.

  65. Re:All the more reason to gloat. by omnichad · · Score: 1

    CO2 targets arent important

    I don't think the Kyoto goals were guaranteed to fix everything - just a starting goal. As it stands, the US has outsourced a lot of its CO2 production to China, a country that definitely is not meeting any standard of C02 reduction whatsoever.

  66. Seems as sensible as by sls1j · · Score: 1

    a land war in Asia in the winter.

  67. Mr. Freeze by SoundGuyNoise · · Score: 1

    See, mad scientists aren't all that bad!

    --
    You never expect irony, do you?
    Want to be a professional wrestler? Visit www.iyfwrestling.com
    @iyfwrestling
  68. You don't care about CO2 it seems by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    America either isn't awesome because it's failing

    If what you care about is CO2 then America is awesome precisely BECAUSE it is failing!

    Obviously you don't care about CO2, and therefore the planet... as I said, you really need to change your handle to Capitan Pollution since all you care about is letting the MAN emit as much CO2 as he wants to met your twisted definition of "success".

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  69. 2 Standard Deviations by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

    Looking at 2016 graphed against the 2-standard-deviation range there is really depressing.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  70. Why by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    There is plenty of available real estate so your quip about my bedroom is really quite stupid.

    1. Re: Why by shilly · · Score: 1

      You're mighty confident about the numbers of immigrants who'll be on the move due to climate change, aren'tcha? Tell you what, if you're so confident your bedroom won't be needed, it wouldn't worry you to pledge that if it turns out to be needed, you'll give it up. Cos it won't be needed, right? Right? And you've got the cojones to stand behind your assertions, right? Right?

  71. Re:More things to consider by Triklyn · · Score: 1

    i do like the idea of maintaining ocean currents.

    on the other hand, what would you pay to see a green sahara? or a green california, or fully yellow one? i'd like to see california drown or become a desert essentially... i'm from the east coast, now in the south.

    and i'm OK with the liberal ny jew, he's kinda a dick, but he's pretty aware of that fact. the west coast liberal though... man oh man, i don't want to see california fail, because that'd be bad for america... but man oh man, the california liberals bring me pretty damn close.

    sanctimonious, shrill, pretentious and judgemental.

    make me think downright unpatriotic thoughts. and that will not do.

  72. Evidence by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Models aren't evidence for or against a theory. The evidence for AGW is essentially that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and that it exists in the upper atmosphere, and that we are increasing the concentration of it in the atmosphere. Very basic physical laws dictate that this will cause warming. You can prove the greenhouse gas part in your basement, to measure the upper atmosphere I'd imagine you'd need a sounding rocket. Your basement will also allow you to demonstrate a substantial positive feedback effect with water vapor. So, easily verified properties of atmospheric gases tell us that AGW must be occurring.

    "But wait," you say, "who says that the real world has to match what happens in the laboratory? What if there's some bigger negative feedback loop that we don't know about?" This is a cogent objection. As it happens, that is exactly what we've been looking for (at least, since Keeling). We haven't found one, and we've ruled out all known atmospheric phenomena. Some misunderstood part of the water cycle was probably all that could have saved us; the H2O feedback effect is quite strong. As you can see, the amount of water that can be dissolved in air has a really nasty exponential curve to it, as anyone from the South can doubtless attest.

    The science of AGW really is settled. What exactly will happen is where the models come in, and a large part of the modeled uncertainty is because they're giving projections which take into account human responses to climate change. I'm not suggesting that you take any particular action about this, but you may rely on the science being correct, so if your personal view is that that would be a situation requiring action, I would imagine that you would want to be thinking about what to do.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
    1. Re:Evidence by 0111+1110 · · Score: 1

      The so called science you are referring to was in a sense settled in late 19th century when the first greenhouses were built. It is very likely that an increase in CO2 will cause a rise in planetary temperatures (global warming) and we know that atmospheric CO2 is increasing from one year to the next, but what we don't know is how quickly CO2 will rise in the future (whether the current rate will or will not increase) and how much planetary warming per ppm rise this will create. We also don't know what changes each degree c of increased temperature will cause. So far it seems the 1 degree c increase in the 20th century has not caused Armageddon. Will another degree rise in the 21st century cause it though? We just don't know. Our record as a species in predicting the future has so far not been promising.

      Due to the fact that fossil fuels are going to run out and probably relatively soon these details matter a lot and we just don't know them. So far, in the past 100 years, the 100ppm change has clearly not been catastrophic. Also we cannot be 100% sure that the 100ppm rise in CO2 in the past century was caused by human activity. It would be funny if after humanity converted to 99% nuclear electricity generation and only battery powered and direct connect electric cars, trucks, and buses we discovered that CO2 continued to rise at the same rate. Such a discovery might lead to just a bit less arrogance and a bit more humility on our part. The reason why the scientific method is so important is because we humans tend to think we are right even when we are not and also tend to believe we are a lot smarter than we really are. It also must be flattering to believe we have already mastered the art of terraforming. Although there probably is a lot to learn about terraforming from our little CO2 injection experiment here. Assuming of course we really are the cause of (most of) the increase and we probably are.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
    2. Re:Evidence by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

      The so called science you are referring to was in a sense settled in late 19th century when the first greenhouses were built.

      I assume you must be referring to the work of Tyndall in 1859 on the thermal properties of atmospheric gases.

      It is very likely that an increase in CO2 will cause a rise in planetary temperatures (global warming)

      Thermodynamics dictates that it must, and the no-feedback forcing can be more-or-less directly calculated. The standard figure for a doubling of CO2 is 3.7 W/m^2, which is considered equivalent to ~1 degree global temperature rise. Beyond that, as you say, there is a bit more uncertainty.

      Also we cannot be 100% sure that the 100ppm rise in CO2 in the past century was caused by human activity.

      Actually we can. We've measured volcanic outgassings all over the globe, and we know from the C14 ratios that this is very old carbon. Additionally, oil is the most traded commodity and we're pretty clear on what is being burned where, and how much. That level of trade leaves quite a paper trail.

      So far, in the past 100 years, the 100ppm change has clearly not been catastrophic.

      Catastrophe is exactly the term that comes to mind about the Arctic. I'm from Alaska, and the changes up there are jaw-dropping. All of the glaciers are in rapid retreat, especially the lower alpine and tidewater glaciers (the more visible and accessible ones). One glacier near my house lost twenty cubic miles of ice in ten years. Not square miles, cubic miles. Now of that certain facts must be mentioned. That particular glacier is not suspected of melting due to climate change, but that is the scale of the changes. It was shocking to see all of that go all at once, but literally everywhere you look there is less ice year by year. Alaska has lost 75 billion tons of ice every year for the last 30 years, as compared with about ~3.5 billion tons of oil burned annually during that period. Now, that may not be a catastrophe to you, but the real bad news is that we're only getting started: the warming signal from the CO2 rise has only been considered clearly detectable since the 90s.

      Humans aren't good at predicting the future. I am not smart enough for it. I am definitely not better at predicting things than thousands of scientists working together around the world. You're suggesting that we know nothing about the future and couldn't possibly guess what might happen tomorrow by using physics. In point of fact, you have no idea what is known or how good of a guess we might have. Yes, there is uncertainty in this as in all other empirical fields, but there are very little physical grounds to speculate about non-catastrophic scenarios. As I mentioned in another post here, our current rate of CO2 production is equivalent to one or more Yellowstone-sized supervolcano eruptions per year (source: Gerlach 2011). What does that suggest to you about what's going to happen?

      So firstly, any argument against science needs to be made in the language of science, and on this subject you don't know enough to participate. Neither do I -- neither of us has earned a doctorate in a related field. But more fundamentally you don't understand what science is. That the science could be wrong is not a possibility, but a fact: science is empirical, and cannot avoid experimental or measurement error. However, within those constraints, scientific truths represent repeatable observations about how the world works, and any further theories will need to describe the exact same behavior. If science says that an apple falls to Earth, that will be true forever no matter what. If the science says that the Earth is warming due to carbon from anthropogenic sources, then there is not going to be another theory that comes along that says something different. And while I respect your right to an opinion, in this specific case I will say that if you can argue with the science, you haven't understood it, a

      --
      Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  73. Holocene Optimum by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 2

    The rate is going to be unpleasant, but more certain than that is difficult to tell, because among other things it will depend on what we do about it.

    "E-Wa" has fascinating geography, and I do recommend to the interested reader the book "Roadside Geology of Washington". The Cascades are of course very active volcanically, and the scars from the Missoula Floods are simply epic. You are correct that the absence of ice where there was ice previously indicates an upward trend over that time period. However, prior to the Industrial Era, we were actually on a slight cooling trend. The Holocene climatic optimum was 5000-9000 years ago. As I recall, we have yet to reach similar global temperature levels, but our timeframe for doing so assuming current emissions levels is on the order of 1-2 centuries.

    I believe the largest volcanic outgassing in geologic history would be the creation of the Large Igneous Province called the Deccan Traps. As I recall (but I would be happy to find the relevant scientific papers and re-do the calculations for you) human CO2 output to date was about three orders of magnitude smaller than the total figure for the Deccan Traps. Humans are unlikely to be able to emit 1000x more CO2 than we already have on any timescale, however, the flip side of that is that if we continued at this rate we would exceed the largest volcanic outgassings in the history of the Earth in some few thousands of years, where the natural timeframe of those events was several million years. On another scale, we're emitting about two Pinatubo-sized eruptions' worth of CO2 per day, or about one Yellowstone-sized supereruption per year (Gerlach 2011). The IPCC reports give some good estimates about the exact rate of warming, but the rate of CO2 increase far exceeds that of any prior historical event. Since we know that there is a causal link between CO2 increases and global temperature increases, this implies (but does not in any sense prove) that the warming rate may also end up being historically unprecedented. However, if you think that there's some sort of uncertainty about the outcome of this, to where you don't have to be worried, you're probably going to want to rethink that.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
    1. Re:Holocene Optimum by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

      So, let me get this straight. We shouldn't do anything about the CO2-induced global extinction event, because nuclear weapons exist?

      --
      Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  74. Keeling would like a word with you by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

    If you grab a classic atmospheric physics text from 1950 it will actually tell you that climate doesn't change and CO2 plays little to no role in regulating the Earth's temperature. There's one on Google Scholar, I think by Addison Wesley. It's pretty funny from a certain perspective: the introduction alludes to the science being in an exciting state of flux. However, the CO2-mediated theory of climate change had been proposed in 1896, and although it was initially discredited, by the mid-1950s there were enough warning signs that it was becoming clear that climate did indeed change and that CO2 could not be ruled out as a causative factor, and it was equally obvious from the mid-19th century that many human activities resulted in increased atmospheric carbon. Keeling's observations in 1959 established a global baseline for the CO2 content of the atmosphere, and every subsequent year has seen an increase in that measurement. Although there had been a consensus against both climate change and the CO2-mediated theory of global warming, by the end of the 1960s both ideas had gained broad acceptance, and by the end of the 1970s this was pretty much universal. At no point during this shift of opinion was anyone persecuted or denied funding for picking either side of the debate.

    Now, I recognize that someone who prefers "Herp derp! Greenland!" to actually knowing the slightest bit about scientific history is likely beyond help, but for everyone else, this site goes over in considerable depth the history of the discovery and acceptance of AGW.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  75. This article has everything! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    This article has everything!

    In case you've been under a rock for the past 20 years

    Condescension.

    the Arctic is melting super fast

    Alarmist bullshit.

    Certain *ahem* governments are dragging their feet doing anything about it

    Anti-American political bias.

    the planet could be in for a spectacular meltdown within the next 20 years

    More alarmist bullshit.

    But a clever bunch of scientists

    The valiant, altruistic and truly honest heroes of the new religion of science.
    (I'm all for scientific discovery, but not fellating people for it)

    a plan to re-freeze the Arctic

    Mad scientist bullshit.

    wind-powered pumps that will bring water to the surface, allowing it to freeze. This new layer of ice could last well into the summer

    What could possibly go wrong?

    scientists think summer Arctic ice could be gone by 2030

    My money is on that statement being added to this list.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

    plan has a $500 billion price tag

    Golly gee, that's a lot. Who's getting it?

    plan has a $500 billion price tag, but that's pocket change

    Ah yes, of course, of course, so it's these people then?
    http://theglobalelite.org/globalists/

    You can read more about the study via The Guardian.

    My most trusted source for totally not fake news!

  76. Liars and the lies they tell by Jerry · · Score: 1

    Uh huh. And in 2007 Gore claimed the Arctic would be ice free in seven years (2014) and in 2009 Kerry made the same idiotic claim.
    It was quite obvious in the 2009 & 2011 whistle blower release that the CRU scientists were fudging the results. NASA was just caught with its hand in the data jar, fudging the results. The climate "scientists" threw out well calibrated satellite covering the entire ocean in favor of spotty cargo ship temperature data, which is known to be chronically high, just like the temperature stations next to air conditioners, on parking lots, hot roofs, etc, simply because they could be used to support AGW.
    Then, to top it off, these geniuses want to make massive changes in the Arctic ocean subsurface environment! Didn't they learned anything from Australia's invasive species problems, all caused by well meaning scientists: cane toads, rabbits, red foxes, etc...????

    Too much rain, AGW. Too little rain. AGW, Too hot. AGW, Too cold. AGW. AGW is a repeat of Lysenkoism. it is not a science (because it can't be falsified) it is a religion.

    --

    Running with Linux for over 20 years!

  77. Islam by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

    All histories are alternate histories. I'm not sure you are aware, but the Islamic world lost the race in the 18th and 19th centuries. The Christian world came in and flat-out erased the vast Islamic empires that had existed until then. Islam has been a fairly complex socio-political phenomenon, but the monster you are afraid of is dead. Another caliphate is as likely as another Ottoman Empire. Among other problems, many of the ethnic and political groups which have followed the teachings of Muhammad had real problems with internecine fighting, including his direct followers, and this had to be incorporated into their religious doctrine. I assume you know something about Christian mythology -- how do you imagine it would have been if, say, the apostles Mark and Matthew had decided to kill one another after the Crucifixion? It's a recipe for the opposite of a unified doctrine.

    It's a shame that you didn't take that Islamic history course. I mean, I don't say that in the sense that it would dissuade you from any sort of negative view of any given Islamic group. If you can manage to make a moral judgement of some sort about the Ottoman Turks I am sure that's your business. However, to the degree that one can describe a conflict between Islam and the West, that conflict ended a minimum of 100 years ago. The problem with this idea is that Islam isn't supposed to lose: they're God's people, Islam is the religion of peace and other nice things, and what does it mean when the entirety of the Islamic world is divided, looted, and treated as a plaything by Westerners?

    Islam as a religion will always be haunted by sectarian violence. As yet another example, one of the original leaders of the house of Saud happened to conquer Mecca and Medina around 1800, and considered the tombs of Mohammad's companions to be sacrilegious idolatry. So he destroyed them. To be blunt, Islam is fucked. The Mideast in general has been conquered often enough to make one wonder how they ever progressed, but the waves of invaders most often settled down and became good Islamists, even if it was at the expense of places like Baghdad. But now? Islam is completely fucked, and there's pretty much no possible world in which Islam is not completely fucked. Their own doctrine is hopelessly divided, and generally the integration of little things like "science" and "democracy" are not going all that well. And we haven't even touched the subject of military force, or economic power. Islam has been marginalized to the point where it is a mere footnote in Western histories, and it will never recover, and the extremists you fear are marginalized even within Islamic societies. Yes, there are a few jihadists around, and here we really need to single out Wahhabism as originated and nurtured by our "friends" the House of Saud. The same house of Saud that destroyed shrines in Mecca, and that supplied the western world with a guy name of Usama bin Laden and a couple dozen of his friends whom you may have heard of. And I am sure they have absolutely nothing to do with ISIL, nope, no siree. Sarcasm aside, the only thing sillier than worrying about a handful of Islamic terrorists is worrying about Islam itself. It's over: our side won, and the victory was so complete that we hardly bother to remember that it even happened.

    The problem with being an Islamophobe is not that there isn't a real conflict between Islam and the West. It seems somewhat difficult to discuss Islam separately from shari'a law, and shari'a law is only remotely compatible with Western societies in the sense that few people would try to apply it to non-Muslims. And while I despise tribalism and misanthropy, I think that those impulses are mostly self-defeating. The part that makes you a complete moron is that Islam is not a threat, it will never be able to be a threat, and insofar as there is any part of Islam which represents even a minor threat, we're not focusing on them because we like their oil too much.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  78. politicized summary by scatbomb · · Score: 1

    Certain *ahem* governments are dragging their feet doing anything about it

    Let me guess, this is somehow Donald Trump's fault?

    Is it because of the oil pipelines that aren't there yet? Which are going to transport oil that we'd otherwise buy from the middle east?

    Other than joining the Paris accord (which we are still a part of), what exactly did the previous administration do to address this?

    I am sick of issues that have been going on for a long time being blamed squarely on a President who has been in office for just a couple weeks.

  79. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by TrumpShaker · · Score: 1

    I think there used to be more "shit tons" of ice up there...at ~548 lbs each.

  80. Re:Actually possibly a cultural religious issue by TrumpShaker · · Score: 1

    Think "judgement". How does one reconcile being given reign over the kingdom of earth, ignoring it's treatment because time is running short, and a probable judgement on how you treated it while you were here?

  81. Re: Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by TrumpShaker · · Score: 1

    Kudos to you! If we can get more people like you that think it's a joke to think the same way about kids and then not have kids....

    Problem solved! (eventually)

  82. Re:All the more reason to gloat. by haruchai · · Score: 1

    "America is so awesome it lowers CO2 without even trying"
    There was plenty more than just "without even trying"; there was a frackton of fracking going on, which led to deliberate, accidental & inadvertent releases of METHANE, which is a much bigger deal than CO2 in the short term. And let's not leave out the contamination of the water table nor the staggering increase in tremors in some areas.

    But don't bother laying your "*Innocent Gaze*" on any of that. The vast majority of people who care about curtailing CO2 emissions also care a whole lot about pollution, too - in the USA and elsewhere. So don't expect them to cut any country any slack for "meeting their Kyoto goals" by exporting their GHG emissions and environmental damage overseas.

    --
    Pain is merely failure leaving the body
  83. Re:One melts and one grows by david_thornley · · Score: 1

    What about Antarctic land ice? If land ice melts, that makes the seas around the Antarctic less salty and easier to freeze.

    --
    "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  84. Why not shade the water?? by Neuronwelder · · Score: 1

    It's not a perfect solution by any means, just a patch: Anchor lightweight floating objects in the polar circle to reflect the light back into space and cool the water. Find a material with tolerance of freezing. Maybe it won't be ice, but it will possibly sustain the old pathways of cold ocean water (and polar vortex air?) that used to exist before this calamity happened.

  85. Re:All the more reason to gloat. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    Let me translate the several posts of bullshit you have given us:

    First, you're going to have to learn English, because you just completely fucking failed. I've been ranting here on Slashdot about how we need to severely curtail CO2 emissions for over a decade.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  86. Re:More things to consider by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    You can build a wind turbine over 80% efficient out of trash in your back yard.

    Does this apply to everyone's backyard? I have a few leaves, half a styrofoam cup, and a large toy inflatable ball that blew in from the neighbor's yard. Please send me the plans at your earliest convenience.

    How about I send you a link to dictionary.com? I said "out of trash in your back yard", not "out of the trash in your back yard". The implication of "in your back yard" is "without fancy tools". I could have said "in your garage" to make it clearer, I suppose.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  87. Re:More things to consider by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    what would you pay to see a green sahara? or a green california, or fully yellow one? i'd like to see california drown or become a desert essentially... i'm from the east coast, now in the south.

    If you want to reclaim desert, there's a much better way for waiting for flooding which will impede your quality of life. You pump seawater into the desert and use it to grow algae, which can be processed into biofuel. We have enough flat, sunny, unused land in the USA to replace 100% of our transportation fuel needs with biofuel from algae. Biodiesel (actually, "green diesel") is used to replace #2, and Butanol is used to replace gasoline. The waste from the process is benign and can be used as compost.

    and i'm OK with the liberal ny jew, he's kinda a dick, but he's pretty aware of that fact. the west coast liberal though... man oh man, i don't want to see california fail, because that'd be bad for america... but man oh man, the california liberals bring me pretty damn close.

    We in California are tired of funding fuckery in the rest of the country, and paying for other states to have things which we could afford if we just kept the money. We're tired of assholes who shit all over other people crying about being called on it, too.

    sanctimonious, shrill, pretentious and judgemental.

    What? Let us look at the left v. right on each of these issues. Righties claim a moral imperative from cheezus, so they are clearly more sanctimonious. Righties shout and thump bibles, so they are clearly more shrill. There is no higher pretention than that your one out of thousands of religions is the one which is correct, but let's also not forget that there are literally more cases of republican senators being cited for misconduct in public bathrooms than the trans women they rail against as a means of developing support from inbred hicks in sticks. And that ties nicely into judgemental, where their allegedly highest figure told them not to judge other people and to turn the other cheek, which they really show they've taken on board by BOMBING EVERYONE.

    So uh, yeah, you can stick your bullshit up your ridiculous arse there.

    make me think downright unpatriotic thoughts. and that will not do.

    I'd be happy if you'd just think.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  88. Re:More things to consider by omnichad · · Score: 1

    A dictionary does not resolve ambiguity. It really wasn't clear.

  89. Re:More things to consider by Triklyn · · Score: 1

    sahara was green at some point in the recent past. it only got all sandy again sometime after we came about. all we need is some good ole' fashion climate change.

    yeah, half of us are tired with paying for the other half of us. red states are rural, urban states are blue. there's a discrepancy in tax allocation that comes with that and will probably always be the case as long as there are differences in population density.

    hey, i'm all for liberalism, i would have considered myself solidly in the left a decade ago, that appears to be no longer the case, but i haven't moved. now i'm a centrist, and i wonder where the like-minded people went. a few years back, an associate told me i was the most polite and pleasant liberal he'd ever spoken to, didn't know what he meant, hadn't seen the turn as he had from his perspective.

    when dan savage gets called out for using tranny in a college talk and ostensibly the talk was about the fight of the gay community to re-appropriate terms like queer... we've lost the trail somewhere.

    followed to its logical conclusion, why does the religious right object to things? why do they care what you do with your life? is it about hate? probably a small part, but most of it's about love and i can't bring myself to hate them for that, or even criticize. I'm made so that I cannot believe, sometimes i wonder what it'd be like to not require evidence for belief. regardless, they're feeling 'it's my own damnation if i sit by quietly as you walk by to your own. I've got the guidebook to heaven, and I know the secret, follow me if you want salvation.' that stuff, which is a bit more benign than, 'the infidel must pay taxes or die or you all sin against me' yadda yadda. how can you hate someone for trying to save your soul?

    brendan eich, little old bakers, apparently old civil rights activists and forerunners... these are not the right targets for your ire.

  90. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by hyades1 · · Score: 1

    You're wrong...as tons of scientific data prove.

    https://skepticalscience.com/

    --
    I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
  91. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by SensitiveMale · · Score: 1

    My point is meteorologists are frequently wrong about predicting weather for the next day, yet we're supposed to change the behavior of the entire population of earth for predictions that are centuries in the future. Some of those same scientists took a boat to a place they have under observation to prove their predictions RIGHT NOW and they were wrong.

    Wrong. Wrong. WRONG.

    So if they were so wrong about the current condition of a place they've been monitoring for decades, why should anyone trust what they have to say about that same place a hundred years in the future?

  92. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by SensitiveMale · · Score: 1

    I'd say it shows a huge problem with their predictions. They went up there to prove their point of climate change with a staged set and they were proven wrong.

    And it's not one ship. It has happened more than once.

  93. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by SensitiveMale · · Score: 1

    Oh, so if you don't believe in climate change then you're an evolutionist? That same climate change predictions by the scientists that were stuck in ice that they predicted wouldn't be there?

  94. Re:Bullshit. Ask "The Polar Ocean Challenge" by SensitiveMale · · Score: 1

    Snow is climate. As you know.

    Ice is climate. Predicting that there would be significantly less ice and getting stuck in the ice that wasn't supposed to be there, and you said wouldn't be, is dumb.

  95. Re:ha, ha , ha by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    And in turn the US didn't pay its UN duties for years, taxes the world and rips it off by having the maybe cheapest oil outside the middle east, simply by virtue of stealing it. So please...

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.