From 1999 To 2016, America Lost 11.4 Million People From the Workforce (washingtonpost.com)
Andrew Van Dam, writing for the Washington Post: Where did all the jobs go? Well, we're finally starting to find some satisfactory answers to the granddaddy of all economic questions. The share of Americans with jobs dropped 4.5 percentage points from 1999 to 2016 -- amounting to about 11.4 million fewer workers in 2016. At least half of that decline probably was due to an aging population. Explaining the remainder has been the inspiration for much of the economic research published after the Great Recession.
Disability
There must be reason, dammit!
Where did the jobs go? It's hardly a mystery: automation.
The real question is, why is it so hard for displaced workers to train for better jobs - skilled trades and skilled manufacturing are very hungry for workers right now. The labor demand is there, what's up with the supply?
America is shockingly bad at adult vocational training? Where are the public schools for this? Where's the corporate participation? Companies don't want to (pay to) train people because they'll just jump to another company once trained, but that's a solvable problem, and companies really need to be involved in the training.
We have scam votech schools that charge a lot, and make empty promises of jobs. We need votech schools directly entwined with employers so that if you pas the class, you get the job, and you only worry about the cost if you change jobs soon after.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
Robots. The answer is robots.
And those jobs are never coming back, either.
right? Supply and demand, right?
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I wonder how this relates to the increase of people relying on social services? I mean, if you are on welfare and you only have shitty options for jobs I really can't blame people for staying on welfare.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
People look at employment and treat it as a measure of poverty. When that doesn't satisfy, they look at things like number of employed and the labor force participation rate. The dialogue goes in the direction of "why isn't everyone working?"
A comprehensive economic report would include income distribution, standard of living, number in poverty, number receiving aid, percent of GDP of aid disbursed, number homeless, number hungry, number in college, number retired, and so forth.
With a labor participation rate above 50%, excluding those in college and those in retirement, you've got single-adult households and multi-worker households: men and women are working. Single-adult households suggest labor force participation rate should be higher; whereas multi-worker households suggest wealth (to pay nurses, day cares, and the cost of appliances to do housework, freeing one householder to pursue a career for self-fulfillment) or poverty (to keep the household financially-solvent). Multi-adult, single-worker households tend to suggest wealth as well (non-workers can pursue non-work efforts for self-fulfillment).
This gets even more-complicated when you realize traditional family values don't describe today's world: not everyone wants kids and, while there are roughly an equal number of men and women, not every two-adult household is a male-female pairing. A single-worker lesbian household is still a woman working and a woman not-working; a single-worker gay male household is a man working and a man not-working. Which is more likely? How far does our workforce currently lean toward male workers and female non-workers? For that matter, how many households are now female-breadwinner households where the man doesn't work?
Unemployment isn't a flat descriptor of economy.
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And we are only in our 50s.
Good jobs until one day the job was gone and then they were unhirable.
We need to stop companies from being the primary source for health care. It pushes them into laying people off and not hiring people over 50.
I saw this coming when I was 32 and was able to retire at 51 but I doubt I could get more than a minwage job even tho I was a manager of over a dozen developers in multiple countries on multi-billion dollar projects.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
The lies used by the government to say that there is booming growth in the economy since the 2008 financial crisis, meant that "unemployment" numbers were being fudged and misreported. This is the effect. To keep unemployment numbers low, the number of workers interested in finding jobs was adjusted repeatedly during the years since.
The result is that anyone looking at the number of jobs available then, to the number of jobs available now, exposes the lie.
Fact of the matter is that IF unemployment was measured the same way it was in 1999, then we're have double digit unemployment. That would create a panic and another even more problems (who'd want to buy US debt if then), so that's why the fraud continues.
There's so many variables that are poorly tracked. Some people retire willingly at 55; others are still working (willingly or otherwise) at 75. Some people quit temporarily to look after children or aging parents. Some are physically or mentally unable to work. Some go back to school or try to start their own businesses. Some work for cash in the underground economy. Then there's underemployment where people work one (or more) part-time or "gig" jobs when they would rather be working full-time. A single percentage number cannot capture everything that's going on in the workforce.
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It has nothing to do with automation or anything else. The lazy moochers essentially gave those up by demanding living wages to flip burgers or stand at a counter asking "Do you want fries with that". Those jobs are nothing more than a first step for HS students entering into the workforce, not for lazy moochers wanting all the luxuries for doing next to nothing 20 hours a week. Even then they wouldn't be satisfied, take a look at the auto industry and the unions. They forced the big three to relocate across the border due to the ultra high wage demands for even something as simple as janitorial work. Today all 11.4m moochers are just being lazy by getting food stamps, Obamaphone, free internet, medicaid, pell grants for college and loans, etc. Then they turn around and sell their food stamps for drug money all the while going to countless soup kitchens, food pantries, clothing pantries, etc. Yes, they sell the food stamps for drug money and then go to the commie "churches" that continue to enable their drug habits. Time to end the welfare state, time to end the entitlements, time to #MAGA!!!
>meant that "unemployment" numbers were being fudged and misreported.
I'm pretty sure you're correct, as today a report was released showing "over-employment" by the jobs numbers, along with very low increases in wages. If real over-employment were occurring wages would inflate rather rapidly. Now we are seeing the lie behind the number of unemployment.
They counted what caused people who had jobs to stop working. It shouldn't surprise anyone that over an almost twenty year time period some jobs disappeared.
But what I don't see is why more new jobs weren't created and filled by the people who left the workforce.
To make room for imported talent
What is this revisionist history crap?!
Golly, I wonder what happened in 2001 kicking off several wars?
Then there was the economic crash of 2008 that didn't even START to begin to turn around until Obama's last year?
Throughout all of that I've been on Slashdot daily and we've been discussing the job situation, lack of (creation, companies folding because of internet changes, economic factors, etc) it's not as if nobody knew the reasons daily.
Now we want to look back and "analyze", over a 16 year period, some mythical rationale as to why we had unemployment as if nobody knew?!
Ugh!
Thank goodness we now have a president who is pulling business, money and opportunity back into our country instead of raising the cost of doing business here to the point that many companies had to move overseas or consider selling out or shutting down. Unemployment down, more jobs created, offshore money is being transferred back to the states, businesses are looking to relocate here. All of this is great for us. Trump does in fact have a magic wand: An understanding of business and economics.
Its no coincidence that the tax incentives for outsourcing labor, the lifting of tariffs on businesses manufacturing abroad and wholesale work visa abuse fall nicely into this window.
See this data, (and lots more if you care to look).
All participation rates for all age groups are down. Except for >65 and >75 years old.
The youngster don't want to or can't work, but the elderly are forced to work to supplement retirement benefits slashed by the low interest rates and 2008 crash.
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/record-low-labor-participation-rate-not-due-retirement-or-school-5431
Texas data, all age groups are down, except >65 for example...(See exhibit 7)
https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2016/april/labor-force.php
and the trade / tech schools do not need degrees but they where roped into the that system.
So we get some Vocational that get's padded out to 2-4 years with high cost and an degree that does not transfer to the full college system.
Also other Vocational things that end up being nice but not an degree.
Now what do we want some who went 2 4 years of college + 1-2 years of tech schools who is 80-150K in the hole?
Jobs moved to Mexico or other lower cost country's.
Disney Animation...Made in South Korea for one.
WTF does this even mean? Besides "i love trump". Take your tin foil hat off troll.
Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.
Definitely, most of the decrease in employment is due to automation and aging population. On the automation front, think of how many _thousands_ of clerical workers had to be employed at large corporations in the 1950s. There was a massive corporate "clean out" in the early to mid 1990s, and it has only continued since then. For one of my first IT jobs, I was a contractor for a large life insurer in NYC. Their headquarters took up 2 Manhattan blocks, was filled to capacity a few years before I showed up, and was only one of several offices around the country. When I got there, whole floors were empty.
Another thing that might explain the loss is the trend for companies to fire people in their late 40s/early 50s. I'm 43 and know it's going to be a hard road if I end up on the wrong end of a layoff a few years from now. A lot of these "end-career" professionals are stuck in limbo before the age where they're allowed to draw their retirement savings penalty-free (59.5.) Most aren't going to get hired for anything like the job they had before, and I think a lot of them are going on SS disability. How else would they survive with no income? Being on disability means you're not working, because you can't do that legally.
Thanks Obama!
captcha: magician
Ha ha, wow, great parody, you should wear a costume while you do it, applauding above my keyboard.
That's not a Trump supporter.
deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
"At least half of that decline probably was due to an aging population."
Sorry, Kemosabe, but "probably" just don't cut it!!!!!!
You see, between 1997 to 2007, $23 trillion in securitized debt was sold, and between 2007 to 2009, American households lost $17 trillion in assets, while another $6 trillion was lost overseas - - which had purchased $6 trillion of that $23 trillion in securitized debt --- get it????
"Probably" not . . .
The tremendous upsurge in automating jobs out of existence began in 2012 [although admittedly it has been occurring for quite some time], while many were simply laid off as the new onslaught of jobs were offshored to India, China, Bangladesh, etc., and more and more foreign replacement workers were brought in.
"Probably" a major reason why Trump got elected is personified by a story from NPR this week, and a local Seattle Weekly story, both seeming to promote the use of foreign visa replacement workers from India.
http://www.seattleweekly.com/n...
Does the study control for Baby Boomers who were retiring on schedule or early?
http://www.hawknest.com/
The counts of employment and unemployment are flawed because there are a lot of jobs they can't see.
I am self employed. I farm. My job doesn't show up in the rolls of the employed or unemployed because I'm not counted either way.
My son works with me on our farm. Similarly he does not show up as either unemployed or employed.
We still pay taxes. We're not on disability. We're not on welfare. We're not retired. We're not unemployed. We are both part of the dark matter jobs that just don't show in the statistics. There are a LOT of these jobs.
Early retirement. The FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) movement is a very tiny but growing portion of the jobless, People in their 20s, after just a few years of working and observing their seniors, realize just what the next 40+ years gets them. Between laughably little vacation time, wage stagnation, corporate bullshit, and the whole time (which is irreplaceable) for money thing it's no wonder more and more people want to get off the hamster wheel.
Once I started earning non-trivial passive income a few years ago, my perspective on jobs would never be the same again. I'm a long ways from achieving FI, but simply being on the path of FI has put me on a much stronger financial footing and has given me many more options. And having options is real power.
Obligatory anecdote:
My paramour has two part-time jobs, each of which caps out at 30 hours. No benefits, of course. Both employers maintain an entire department on those terms (6+ people) instead of hiring anyone full-time.
When they post a job opening, if it's full time, they get 100+ applicants.
If it's part-time, they actually have trouble scheduling interviews.
In response, they raised the wage for the position by about a dollar an hour. I haven't heard how well that's helped them yet...
They all need to retrain as software engineers, neurosurgeons, physicists, geologists, etc.
More guns to tackle the gun problem too!
Earned my FU money at 42. Since about age 35 my stock investments were more than my annual salary, so why bother?
Stopped working.
Started traveling and doing things I want, not what someone else wants.
Simple.
Surely all these people found tech jobs in the booming tech industry after the start of rise of automation? I mean that's what has always been promised: that tons of new jobs and doors will open up for the former secretaries, drivers, grave diggers, etc so long as they get retrained. So surely this is mistaken!
Good grief man! Take your meds!
Picking 1999 as your start, when the unemployment was at a record all time low (peak of dot-com boom) and comparing to 2016 is like picking a record low and record high price of a mutual fund and calculating an average annual return. In 1999 anyone with a heartbeat could get a job. A 3 or 4 month course in computer programming landed most people a 6 digit salary. Why not show the actual workforce numbers per year from 1990 through today and show a trend, rather than pick a large difference and focus on that? Oh yea, because it doesn't make for as good of a headline.
A lot of jobs require the candidate to pass a drug test. With the number of people on opioids (and dieing from them), I would not discount that a significant percentage of the those not working are in fact users.
We know what the war over oil is really about. If this had been a real war on terror, the answer would have been obvious: Isolationism.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
Given rampant guest worker fraud and abuse, it shouldn't be a surprise to see a good chunk removed.
"Forget the engineers." -Carly Fiorina, briber of MIT Technology Review.