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Relying on Renewables Alone Significantly Inflates the Cost of Overhauling Energy (technologyreview.com)

A growing number of US cities and states have proposed or even passed legislation that would require producing all electricity from renewable energy sources like solar and wind within a few decades. That might sound like a great idea. But a growing body of evidence shows it's not. From a report: It increasingly appears that insisting on 100 percent renewable sources -- and disdaining others that don't produce greenhouse gases, such as nuclear power and fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technology -- is wastefully expensive and needlessly difficult. In the latest piece of evidence, a study published in Energy & Environmental Science determined that solar and wind energy alone could reliably meet about 80 percent of recent US annual electricity demand, but massive investments in energy storage and transmission would be needed to avoid major blackouts. Pushing to meet 100 percent of demand with these resources would require building a huge number of additional wind and solar farms -- or expanding electricity storage to an extent that would be prohibitively expensive at current prices. Or some of both.

248 comments

  1. Absolutism has a cost? by Zorro · · Score: 0, Troll

    Completely unexpected consequence of Dogma over mathematics!

    1. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      SJW world cannot exist on logic and reasoning.

      Solution - adapt devices to power output. Use them only when electricity is available.

    2. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by gnick · · Score: 5, Insightful

      ...adapt devices to power output. Use them only when electricity is available.

      What are the odds that a whole town would decide to run their AC on the same day?

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    3. Re:Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This is nothing new. But there is a large contingent of folks who insist renewables are a simple low cost solution. Of course, they are basing their conclusions on the existing renewable expansion which has been entirely dependent on non-renewable sources on the grid.

      Germany is proof of the high cost with minimal benefits. If they'd simply kept their nukes running, they would have save a huge amount of money and made significantly greater progress in CO2 emissions reductions.

    4. Re:Absolutism has a cost? by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      It does. Proper Environmentalism, isn't being a crazy hippy, but looking at the risks and rewards of all available options. And going back and reevaluating to see if any factors have changed.

      Back in the early 1900's the Gasoline Automobile was an environmental benefit. Because of the health risk of keeping horses in a City Environment. The Toxic (much more Toxic then today) exhaust was known back then to be harmful, however being that it was in the open air, it was considered much better then the Environmental Risks of a lot of horses.

      A century later, The automobile is widely used, and the Carbon from its exhaust is causing harm to the environment compared to modern alternatives where its harm can be more easily managed. This isn't to say in 100 years we say these electric cars are safe and clean anymore, but there may be a new technology. Or perhaps we have cleaned the air to a point where a 100 year newer Gasoline motor or engine, may be considered a better solution.

      Right now I think the biggest problem is lack of energy diversity. We are relying on fossil fuels for too much, and not on others. However to say that Fossil fuel has no part of modern life, is just closing your mind to the complexity of the world.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    5. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That would be every town in the United States from May to August.

      I'm not kidding either. Many utility companies offer discounts, or simply nag their customers to not waste energy, but what would "save" the most energy is getting people into more energy efficient housing and demolishing the wasteful (and usually heritage) buildings.

      Like this is how I'd do things, keep in mind that this is wishful thinking:

      1. Mandate that all buildings have central HVAC. ALL. Looks expensive? Then build a larger fucking building, house more people, to make it cost effective.

      Once you have the vast majority of buildings (this is a 50 year window) with central HVAC, then #2 becomes another way to shave energy costs.

      2. Solar heating, PV Solar on all south facing exterior surfaces. In colder climates also cycle hot water through the roofing and other walls to prevent the PV panels from getting snow and ice on them, but have them also have their own peltier systems to avoid heating/cooling that may damage the panels.

      3. Every room inside a suite/unit of a building has it's own independent second source Heat/Cooling system. So if you like your unit 1 degree warmer than everyone else, you pay the extra money to run the gas fireplace or electric heaters (which waste a shit tonne of money)

      Anytime you see baseboard heating (and no air conditioning), that is not a luxury condo/apartment, that is a "developer skimped out on everything they could" unit.

      Yet many buildings are still being built, and marketed as luxury, without central HVAC. No solar anywhere. It's just build build build until there's no land left, and then demolish things that still have life left in them.

    6. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by MightyMartian · · Score: 0

      Nuclear is almost the most expensive form of power there is, and as to carbon capture, it's still largely science fiction, and even where possible, it requires a great deal of energy itself, making it significantly more expensive than fossil fuel plants that just belch their CO2 into the atmosphere.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    7. Re:Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Fossil fuel has no part of modern life because we will eventually run out of it, or it will be too expensive to extract and burn it.

      Look at the fuel cost for an EV vs ICE/Diesel. EV's work out to be 10% of the fuel cost, for a vehicle that minimally costs twice as much to buy, and likely costs more to maintain, just less frequently.

      Like if you can by an ICE for 12K, but an EV for 25K, no brainer, you go for the ICE, even if the EV saves you 3K per year in energy costs, because you need to keep the EV 10 years to justify it, where as the ICE you can trade in after 5 and end up breaking even with the EV.

      As long as gasoline is subsidized, it will not be cost effective for everyone to switch to EV's. Fuel needs to still double in cost before that will happen.

      That said, we shouldn't be burning oil. Save that oil for the plastics industry. Eventually we will run out of oil, currently predicted by 2088. I don't think I will live that long, but you know what? That's the problem, the people running these industries today, know they won't live that long, and basically "I got mine, fuck you" to future generations.

    8. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by doom · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Nuclear is almost the most expensive form of power there is,

      Wrong: Coal power is. It's destroying the planet, and yet we're still using a lot of it.

      You have price confused with "cost"-- our energy markets are no where near sane about capturing externalities (with the possible exception of nuclear, where we insist on paying full-life cycle charges up front, including waste handling).

    9. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by jabuzz · · Score: 1

      3. Every room inside a suite/unit of a building has it's own independent second source Heat/Cooling system. So if you like your unit 1 degree warmer than everyone else, you pay the extra money to run the gas fireplace or electric heaters (which waste a shit tonne of money)

      Do you not have thermostatic radiator valves in the USA? Even in my small house I have different rooms at different temperatures with only one temperature of circulating heating water. While living in Scotland I have no requirement for air conditioning in my house the same is achievable for cooling with just one temperature of cold water too.

    10. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by thaylin · · Score: 1

      by "almost" I assume you mean cheaper than all coal, other than old super dirty coal (which is on par), gas and biomass. In fact nuclear is not really all that expensive. It is the startup costs that kill nuclear, not the TCO. Pretty much the only thing cheaper than nuclear is natural gas and geothermal currently.

      --
      When you cant win, ad hominem.
    11. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by gnick · · Score: 4, Informative

      ... (the rich, the Pelosi supporters, etc.) will be assigned July and August while the "bad" families (Trump supporters, NRA members, etc.)...

      You have strange fantasies.

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    12. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Please stop spreading your lies and take a little while to educate yourself

      "The cost of producing nuclear-generated electricity in 2007 was 1.7 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared with 2.4 cents for coal, 6.7 cents for natural gas and 10.2 cents for oil. In other words, the cost of nuclear-generated electricity was nearly one-third less than power produced at a natural gas plant.Feb 24, 2009"
      https://alternativeenergy.procon.org/view.answers.php?questionID=001269

    13. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nuclear is almost the most expensive form of power there is,

      I suppose its easier to just assume than actually read.

      https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-2017/

    14. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by AvitarX · · Score: 1

      We don't.

      Not generally anyway.

      Most of our radiator systems are quite old, and rarely updated. Usually an update would be to forced air with a central furnace and AC.

      --
      Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
    15. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by werepants · · Score: 1

      That would be every town in the United States from May to August.

      I'm not kidding either.

      WHOOOOSH is not just the sound of everyone's A/C being turned on in the summer...

    16. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Please identify any actual gas subsidies. You will be surprised they for the most part do not exist at least in the US. There is a cost to using gas, perhaps one that is to high environmentally, but it's not a subsidy, in fact as we move away from gas the government will have to deal with a significant drop in taxes generated from fuel. A good example of this is most of our roads are built and maintained off the gas tax.

      That said the biggest impediment to moving away from gas to electric in the near future is more limitations on electric vehicles and the batteries that run them. Pushing to an all renewables solution at a grid level will compound this issue.

      While electric vehicles make up a tiny portion of the vehicles on the road, the materials needed to build the batteries are already becoming scarce, for example the price of cobalt is skyrocketing.

      Trying to push all in on renewables right now is simply not economically or environmentally feasible. Instead we should look for an optimal solution where wind/solar are the primary source of energy and he backed up by clea power such as hydro and nuclear, with some battery. Moving away from dirty power such as coal or gas.

    17. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by whoever57 · · Score: 1

      In my limited experience, radiators are not common in the USA. Most houses where I have lived use central air heating and cooling systems. I haven't seen thermostatically controlled air outlets for such systems.

      --
      The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    18. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      Coal, NatGas, thermal solar, and offshore wind seem to be quite a bit more expensive than nuclear...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    19. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Klaxton · · Score: 1

      That 9-year-old article is dead wrong. The levelized cost of electricity for nuclear is 11.2-18.3 cents per kilowatt-hour. More expensive than coal, NG, and most renewables. https://www.lazard.com/perspec...

    20. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      My house has it, air ducts to every room have electrically-controlled valves. You can also easily retrofit a house that doesn't have zonal AC by using motorized air vents, like https://keenhome.io/

    21. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by edtice1559 · · Score: 1

      Probably very highly correlated. But the AC units don't run constantly. A simple version of this is already in place where the demand can be smoothed out by scheduling the AC units to not run all at a time but still keep the buildings cool.

    22. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by edtice1559 · · Score: 1

      There is a question about whether these actually save any energy.

    23. Re:Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, if your absolutism is labeled "cost and efficiency" you can't have those earthy crunchy feels!

      Better find some other issue to obsess about. I hear guns works.

    24. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      SJW world cannot exist on logic and reasoning.

      Mark this day in your calendar. Today is the day that the term "SJW" has no relationship to social justice any more in Slashdot common usage.

    25. Re:Absolutism has a cost? by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      Monetary cost is just one factor. There are long term costs to health, environment, and so forth to be taken into account. Then there is the major problem that non renewable power is... not renewable. We WILL run out of coal and oil someday. Do we want civilization to collapse when this happens, or do we want alternatives to ramp up before this happens?

      100% carbon capture from coal does not solve that problem, or other problems with coal. The big political push for coal is only about jobs, and those jobs aren't coming back - if coal makes a resurgence it will use much more automation with fewer workers.

      Supply and demand for oil are such that we're expending enormous costs to get more of it, including piping down low quality oil from Canada so we can ship it to China. We've found all the "easy" places to get oil, now we're working on the hard to get oil.

      We need renewable energy soon, and dependence on fossil fuels is a temporary interim to tide us over and it needs to ramp down over time. We also need as a society to use less energy (and water, etc), and that's a difficult problem to solve.

    26. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      They most certainly do. For example, my bedroom is sandwiched between two heated floors and it rarely needs to be heated. Meanwhile, the attic room has to be heated very often. With zonal AC the hot air is delivered only to it, without causing other rooms to become uncomfortably hot.

      You can run the heating system in fan-only mode but it's usually too slow to equalize temperatures by itself.

    27. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And if you read the Lazard report you'll find that their figures for nuclear are complete bullshit.

      They base the cost of nuclear on the estimated construction cost of an AP1000 plant in the USA, but the only plants of that type that are close to operating are in China and their construction costs are far below that of the USA. The two plants that were being built in the USA have been abandoned.

      Furthermore, they state an output of 600MW, despite the AP1000 being rated at over 1,100MW. Their figures are more than 60% out!

      Skip down to the end of the report and they have different figures for nuclear and only include an operating lifetime of 40 years, despite the AP1000 being designed for 60 year operating life.

      It's hard to take any of Lazard's figures seriously after seeing that, even more so after reading other things in the fine print.

    28. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure, change the metric, and it is just as bad for wind power:

      In this paper, the hidden costs of wind (e.g. the cost of back-up power) added to the levelized cost of wind totals 15.1 cents per kilowatt-hour if natural gas is used as the back-up power and 19.2 cents per kilowatt-hour if coal is used as the back-up power.

      https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/studies/levelized-cost-of-new-generating-technologies/

      fuckwit

    29. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by edtice1559 · · Score: 1
    30. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Immerman · · Score: 2

      >Please identify any actual gas subsidies

      Every war in the Middle East for the last century? We weren't there for the weather.

      Every tax credit given to fossil fuel companies? Sure some will argue "tax credits aren't subsidies", but at the end of the day they give the same economic advantage to a particular business as they would get by leaving the taxes in place and adding a subsidy, so the end result is pretty much the same.

      Every environmental impact indemnification we give to fossil fuel companies? Oil spill cleanup and recovery, especially from something like a deep-sea well failure, is outrageously expensive, and yet the cost is born almost entirely by the government rather than the companies that caused the problem. Coal is mining and waste is hideously bad as well, but has been grandfathered in so that none of the industries involved have to pay the environmental remediation costs, nor even manage their waste in a safe manner. Nuclear actually has the same problem - if a company had to pay for waste storage/reprocessing "until harmless" there would be no profit to be had in the industry.

      Meanwhile your tax issue is disingenuous - mileage taxes are already being experimented with in several areas, specifically to address the fact that a gas tax promises to stop being a an indirect substitute as EVs become more common.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    31. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      So an HVAC company wants you to buy expensive multi-zone systems. Duh.

      Keen vents actually have a duct pressure sensor and will unlock if the pressure exceeds the threshold. It doesn't happen even if a couple of vents are open in the whole house.

      As for scary tales of air conditioners blowing up because condensed coolant enters the pump, it simply can't happen. Evaporators in air conditioners are designed to hold all of the liquid coolant. And vapor is always removed through the high port.

      I had Keen vents in my previous house. They provide very real savings and comfort improvements.

    32. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where I am in Canada now(bc) all new homes built have to have forced air circulation. We build houses so airtight now that if you want to heat it using radiant or electric you have to circulate the air 24hrs

    33. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by edtice1559 · · Score: 1

      I don't think that condensed coolants entering the pump is the issue. Coils can freeze with lack of proper air flow due to dirty filters, having all of the vents closed, or for many other reasons. It certainly seems that such a system *should* be possible but reasonable that an end-to-end design would be better. There are good dual-zone systems that aren't terribly expensive. As an example, many houses in my neighborhood have attic rooms that have much different heating/cooling requirements. The solution is to use a 5ton multi-speed compressor with two air handlers. Usually a 3.5 and 1.5. Then you can turn off the AC to the attic room at will. I'm sure that's more expansive than a standard 5 ton system and some Keen vents. But it also lets you do things like go upstairs to the attic and turn on the AC to cool it down even if the rest of the house is already at the correct temperature. I've actually looked at adding mini-split systems to auxiliary rooms. PITA to get the HOA to approve it, though. A full mini-split system is about the same cost as a dozen keen vents. I'm not saying the keen vents are bad as I don't have experience with them. But they also aren't super-convincing for what they do unless your primary goals are cheap and easy and you're dismissive of airflow concerns.

    34. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

      True that. But the peak load for AC comes during the day when solar is cranking out power, making it less problematic than it might be. Winter use for heating is a harder problem because the peak comes at night, and at a time of year when solar is less efficient overall.

    35. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

      It can also be a building in a location where weather cold enough to require use of the baseboards is rare. If they only get turned on a few nights a year they may make economic sense despite their lack of efficiency.

    36. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

      Radiators are common in New England, where the housing stock is older.

    37. Re: Absolutism has a cost? by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Keen vents really take it to another level. I had a two-zone system for a house with 5 rooms and several heated closets/bathrooms. I could never really achieve balanced heating. For example, my favorite bathroom was too cold in summer and too hot in winter. With Keen vents I could make all rooms to be at comfortable temperature all the time. In the end I had something like 5-way system using Keens. It's really a great invention, simple and easy to use.

      My current house has a real 4-way system which is good enough, the attic room too hot in summer but I can live with it. It's actually not terribly more expensive to put a multi-way system if you're building a house from scratch, you just need to add separate ducts and air valves. Nothing too expensive or exotic. But you can't really retrofit it into a house.

  2. What's with the red banner? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My eyes have been accosted by the bright red

  3. Breaking News! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Replacing the entire existing system for a land of 325M+ people covering 3.5M square miles is going to be incredibly expensive. Who'd have thought?!? Oh right, it worked in Germany, a country with a population density 2.5x the USA (which ranks 180th...), so of course it would work here with no problems at all.

    1. Re:Breaking News! by jellomizer · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There are two sides of such an argument.
      1. Just because it works in Europe it doesn't mean it will work in the USA.
      2. Just because it works in Europe it doesn't mean it will not work in the USA.

      We were able in the past make a trans-continental railroad, an Interstate system, That connects every state together. Nearly every home has access to Clean Water, Electricity, Telephone... These improvements while cost a lot, helped build the United States into an Economic Power house. Because the 325Million people have access to a wider infrastructure and be part of society, while having the property and space to utilize their own means.

      This was all fine and good until the stupid Abortion Debates, where peoples view on the topic, painted the other side as morally deficient. Calling the Other side Misogynists or Baby Killers. Which after a few generations of this, has created a polarized society where working with the other side is considered bad. Even if it for all best interests.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    2. Re:Breaking News! by rogoshen1 · · Score: 2

      this, 90% this (not sure on the genesis, but the out come is very real).

      Now both sides on every single debate in politics see those who disagree with them as morally deficient and evil. :(

    3. Re:Breaking News! by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Oh right, it worked in Germany, a country with a population density 2.5x the USA (which ranks 180th...)

      Those numbers are more interesting if you look at the median population density (i.e. the population density where most people live). The clustering of the US population in costal cities means that it's often higher than European cities. Something may not work for 100% of the population of the USA, but if it works for 70% or so then that's a big impact.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    4. Re:Breaking News! by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 4, Informative

      Not to mention that Germany pays about 2 to 4 times for power what the US pays...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    5. Re:Breaking News! by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Now both sides on every single debate in politics see those who disagree with them as morally deficient and evil. :(

      I think it's a bit of an overstatement to blame both sides equally for this trend. You don't see conservatives screaming themselves into a frothing rage when a liberal speaker is invited to a college campus. You didn't see conservatives whimpering and crying when Obama got elected -- twice. Most conservatives and right-of-center people I know of or can research online seem to welcome open debate on sensitive topics and are happy to engage in a spirited dialog about such issues.

      It's primarily a leftist phenomena where you find "tolerance" like boycotting, "hate speech codes", selective moral outrage, doublethink, doublespeak, threats if you dare challenge the orthodoxy, open calls for violence against those who think differently, and in some cases actual violence.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    6. Re:Breaking News! by HiThere · · Score: 1

      You know, it's rather interesting, but I think that I see worse intolerance on the right than on the left. Both sides are intolerant, but the folks on the right are more likely to swing into violence while the ones on the left are just screaming. Given historic trends I suspect this is because the police look the other way when the right gets violent, but come down hard when the left does, but whatever the reason, that's what I see reported.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    7. Re: Breaking News! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry, I didn't see 'conservatives' in a range over Obama? Are you joking? We're you living under a rock?
      And conservative campuses don't get upset about liberal speakers coming to campus? Once, again, are you joking? Of course, it is true that you are less likely to see it, because conservative campuses are less likely to invite such speakers to start with.

  4. Long term by peragrin · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Renewables are always cheaper. The price of fuel for fossil fuels will go up. The price of decomishing a nuclear site will double again in the next 10 years.

    What makes renewables bad is that we don't have reliable storage.

    Long term is every home can cover 75% of their bas usage with solar and batteries then the need for large grid scale systems shrinks. The large grid is fragile and a mistake in Ohio, can wipe out new York City for 12 hours. (2003 blackout)

    More distributed renewables and smaller but numerous storage. Would strengthen the grid with excess.

    --
    i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    1. Re: Long term by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cost will be in the tens of trillions for the entire US. Feds do not have the tax revenue for it and investors are not convinced yet. So this is a very long term project that would not complete until end of the century. Enviros will have to accept that.

    2. Re: Long term by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem with most energy sources is that we don't have reliable storage mechanisms for the energy. If we had reliable swaths of energy practical energy storage, we could cut a lot of waste from fossil fuels (on the electric grid, that is).

    3. Re:Long term by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If fossil fuel demand drops due to renewable expansion, then fuel prices will drop. Nat Gas has pushed down electrical prices in the US.

      Nuclear decommissioning costs are very tiny on a lifetime per kwh basis. They are incrementally much much smaller than the cost of storage.

      Your assumptions aren't backed by facts. You should pay more attention to the article.

    4. Re:Long term by boo9 · · Score: 1

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?... renewable cost study

    5. Re:Long term by Wrath0fb0b · · Score: 1

      Renewables are always cheaper. The price of fuel for fossil fuels will go up.

      People have been saying this (since forever). On the rare occasion when you can get a proponent of the theory to commit themselves to a particular testable prediction about the real world, their track record is quite dismal.

      Now, as a scientifically-minded person, if the proponents of a theory continue to make incorrect predications about the real world (or walk their predictions back saying 'next decade' for 50 years straight), at some point we have to conclude their theory is just not very good. This is the measure of scientific knowledge: you have to make a prediction ahead of time and then check whether it came true.

      On the other hand, if you believe you have confident knowledge of what direction the price of crude oil will go by 2027, you can make a killing. I absolutely invite you to do so and will really have no grudge if you are right in your bet and make bank.

      [ Note: there are very good environmental reasons not to rely on coal/oil/gas indefinitely, even if they they resulted in cheaper energy. That's a different claim from the OP saying 'renewables are always cheaper'. ]

    6. Re: Long term by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      not necessarily. once more EVs are sold and charged at home, they can become part of the grid backup plan. same as once more homes have solar with battery backup, they also become part of the grid. (all via linked and local microgrids which link to the main grid)

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    7. Re: Long term by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Once more EVs are sold and charged at home, they can become part of the grid backup plan.

      Which won't happen until the price of EV's comes down to where it makes sense for a family of four to purchase one of them. And the grid gets restructured to handle -- and properly bill/credit -- this inverted power flow idea. Those aren't small obstacles, you know. They're actually rather huge.'

      Meanwhile, who's going to supply all the lithium required to build all these magical EV's? Where's that stuff come from? Magic trees? Ohhhh...that's right...you have to dig it up with messy, environmentally-unfriendly mining operations which happen to be situated in politically-unfriendly portions of the world with lax environmental regulations, rampant corruption, and nuclear weapons. Sounds like a grand idea!

      And to cap it all off, what are you going to do with all the old fossil-fueled vehicles which would have to be scrapped to make way for the EV juggernaut?

      It's a nice idea. Not practical. Not even remotely affordable. But nice.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    8. Re: Long term by SlaveToTheGrind · · Score: 1, Insightful

      once more EVs are sold and charged at home, they can become part of the grid backup plan. same as once more homes have solar with battery backup, they also become part of the grid

      Wait, so leaving my EV plugged in overnight would no longer guarantee it would be fully charged when I need to use it, and indeed it actually could be largely discharged depending on other people's consumption patterns that I have no control over? That sounds about as workable as making everyone's pantry part of the grocery store.

    9. Re: Long term by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      I did something anethema for Slashdot... I actually read the study. And while most of it was fairly reasonably done, the cost aspect seems to be handled as an afterthought tacked onto the end. There was no estimation of the costs of using HVDC links at all (I've seen studies that did so, and they came to a much more favourable conclusion). As for their battery storage they state that large batteries currently cost $500/kWh. No, they don't. Over a year ago, the price on power-focused Powerpack systems was about $350/kWh. Energy-focused systems will be even cheaper per kWh. And that's old pricing, let alone current pricing, let alone future pricing. Gigafactory was established to bring costs down to under $100/kWh - and Semi appears to be priced on batteries under $100/kWh. A price that the paper mentions as a target but doesn't appear to believe that it will happen in the next couple decades. Next couple decades? Try "next couple years". They also assume a 10 year service life. Power-focused, frequently cycling powerpacks last 15 years; energy-focused systems should last longer due to how less frequently they go through cycles.

      In short, the paper is assuming that the future - even the fairly far future - will have worse energy storage tech than we have today.

      They also make claims like "For context, storage totaling 12 hours of U.S. mean demand, 5.4 TW h of energy capacity, is 150 years of the annual production capacity of the Tesla Gigafactory (35 GW h)". No, it's not. Gigafactory 1 (note: not "The Tesla Gigafactory", it's called Gigafactory 1, as it's a first generation which they tend to replicate around the world) has a projected output this year of 50 GWh. Design projection at completion is 150 GWh/year. Again: the paper is treating decades in the future as if they won't have what we already have today.

      Colour me unimpressed. I've read much more impressive research, where they actually laid out smart grids and did detailed cost calculations on it.

      --
      "Lock and load, Brides of Christ!"
    10. Re:Long term by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What makes renewables bad is that we don't have reliable storage.

      We haven't implemented it, but the tech exists. Setting aside batteries the most obvious example is pumped hydro - literally two water storage units at differing heights + pump + generator.

      You could use big centralised systems (retrofit existing hydro), but you're better off with lots of smaller systems widely distributed for reliability and efficiency (not having to route large amounts of power over large distances). Some people have even proposed repurposing abandonded mines to replace the lower dam.

      Pros: this is vintage tech, simple and well understood. It's been done before, and it works.

      Cons: you lose some energy pumping water, but the great thing about renewables is that they're plentiful and, after the initial investment, generate essentially free power (in contrast to coal or gas where every watt you generate costs you extra).

    11. Re: Long term by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1

      No, you would set the minimum level of charge (in fact that's the way it already works, most people set the charge to 80% most of the time, because it makes the battery last longer). If you have a car that can do, say, 200 miles, and you only do about 50 miles a day, you can set the minimum to 25% or a bit higher, or whatever level you're comfortable with, and then your car can trade between that and 100% and it should make you money, based on the weather forecasts and so forth.

      The latest research suggests that selling energy back into the grid may actually make the battery last longer, because the car's state of charge may be slightly lower on average than if you just wacked it to 80% every night.

      When you're going on long trips you just set the minimum charge up to 100% and it tops it out. If you go unexpectedly, then you'll need to track down a rapid charger; this can give you 80% charge from empty in about 40 minutes, but that should be rare.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    12. Re: Long term by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1

      Even so, the results are roughly what I've seen elsewhere, if you have about a days storage, that can give you about 85% renewables and then you need some generators to kick in for the other 15%. If you want 100% then you would have to either massively overbuild the renewables (which would be very expensive) or install a couple of weeks worth of storage (which also would normally be very expensive.)

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    13. Re: Long term by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A battery lasting longer is easier achieved with smarter charging strategies.

      However when selling energy back to the grid you can take into account the cost of the battery as well as the cost of the energy. That way you can still make a profit even if it makes your battery last less long. Also you can make use of your battery lifetime more efficiently, since most types of batteries also deteriorate if you do not use them.

    14. Re: Long term by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      once again learn fucking math

      then do the calcs for the resources/costs to build all that shit...

      then factor in that the fucking grid is no where large enough to charge all those batteries+supply power needed at the same time.

      The fucking dumb on here is fucking epic!!

    15. Re: Long term by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What are your thoughts on the Rocky Mountain Institute's Reinventing Fire plan, which also doesn't call for 100% renewables IIRC?

  5. Experimental data does not support that by eggstasy · · Score: 2

    Because some countries over here in Europe have already switched to renewables long ago, starting with hydro power for instance, wtf is this about solar and wind? Every major river has a dam. They are necessary for agriculture, not just electricity. And yeah some days per year we hit 100% renewable energy.

    1. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because some countries over here in Europe have already switched to renewables long ago

      And yeah some days per year we hit 100% renewable energy.

      Those two things seem to be at odds. It seems some countries have partially switched. As the old engineering saying goes "you can get 90% of the way with 10% of the effort, but that last 10% takes 90% of the effort".

    2. Re:Experimental data does not support that by GregMmm · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I live in the US, particularly Washington state, where most of our electricity is derived from hydro. It's used because it's readily available but it does have its side effects. Just like where I live solar is used with a diminished effect. (I live on the western side of the state with tall trees and cloud cover) If I lived in Arizona, I could bank a very good output of solar, but not so much on the hydro. Shouldn't this be the way we look at our energy? A combination of all power types would be good in the correct situations. Not all areas are blessed with natural resources to be 100% renewable.

    3. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your energy taxes are so insanely high and convoluted that your experience doesn't actually demonstrate anything other than the power of bureaucracy. Sorry.

    4. Re:Experimental data does not support that by MountainLogic · · Score: 1

      If by "Your energy taxes are so insanely high and convoluted" you mean we have some of the lowest electricity prices on the planet then yep bring on the "insanely high and convoluted" taxes because I like living in a place with clean air without coal smokestacks and almost free power.

    5. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Barsteward · · Score: 2

      "A combination of all power types would be good in the correct situations." - yes, that will happen.
      the argument gets polarised, the fossil supporters use the argument that the transition from fossil to renewable can't happen overnight so that means it won't work. e.g. what happens when the sun doesn't shone or the wind doesn't blow. They just don't realise it'll take years for renewables to become the major power source even though the pace seems to be getting faster and faster, they seem to forget how long it took coal power stations and the grid to cover the country. Patience is not a virtue for some people

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    6. Re:Experimental data does not support that by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      We have a lot of crazies here in the US, including many in Government who do not consider hydro as a renewable resource. Yes, water falling from the sky, tumbling down mountains, and flowing in rivers is NOT a renewable resource per a large segment of the "eco-centric" folks in the US. When you start off with that kind of position, it makes anything rational essentially impossible to achieve.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    7. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's worth noting that some governments consider "small hydro" to be renewable. In any case, not all renewables are equal; biofuels are still questionable due to the energy needed to produce them.

    8. Re:Experimental data does not support that by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Every major river has a dam.

      Your post contains such a shocking degree of ignorance I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you just typed without thinking. Otherwise this would be embarrassing for you.

      You can't just put up a dam anywhere and start producing electricity, you know. Dams require big rivers and specific geography to make them practical. Not only that, those same dams must be situated relatively near where the electricity will be consumed, otherwise it's inefficient due to power transmission losses. Then there's the environmental impact which you seem ignorant of, namely the disruption of fishing, shipping, flood control, irrigation, tourism, and municipal water supplies to name but a few.

      Suffice to say all the rivers which are economically and ecologically practical to dam have been dammed. All the low-hanging fruit is taken and has been for a while. If it isn't already dammed and making electricity, it's because it isn't feasible to do so.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    9. Re:Experimental data does not support that by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 1

      Hydro is great because it's not only a source of energy, but also a store. But not all countries are like Norway where they can reliably generate around 100% of their electricity by hydro. Most countries will find it hard implement hydro on a scale where they can use it to generate a significant portion of their power as well as have it serve as a store for other renewable energy.

      There's been a few plans floated here to dam a large lake and pump water in, or dam a portion of the North Sea and pump water out, then use that to generate electricity. Feasible but expensive: having some conventional power plants (even nuclear) to even out peaks in demand is way cheaper.

      --
      If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
    10. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Mike+Van+Pelt · · Score: 1

      Hydro is renewable, but limited. "All the good sites are taken." Except Yosemite Valley, but that is (and should be) off limits.

      It's also dependent on the amount of rainfall you get, which isn't necessarily constant from year to year.

    11. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hydro is also majorly disruptive to the existing environment that the dam is put in.

    12. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hydro is an environmental disaster. People need to stop with the ecosystem killing dams.

    13. Re:Experimental data does not support that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it also fucks with ecology so no

  6. NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Khyber · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Gee, it's as if overhauling an infrastructure which was built predominantly on oil might cost a lot of money to retrofit to handle solar, wind, water, and nuclear!

    No fucking duh. However, once you've got the renewable energy sources in place and harvested, the cost will die out, quickly. It's called ROI, and the smart people have obtained almost insane ROI (on the order of 3 months in some related techs like LEDs powered by renewable resources up to 5 years for full solar+wind-powered farms) so they really don't have to worry about this.

    Which means Americans have this problem, and not many other people.

    --
    Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    1. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Americans with low population density can't do what Europeans do with high population density! Americans are stupid. Europeans are smart.

      Too bad apples and oranges comparison don't work.

    2. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by AmiMoJo · · Score: 5, Informative

      TFA is nonsense anyway. The actual paper appears to be this one: http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content...

      The abstract says:

      We analyze 36 years of global, hourly weather data (1980â"2015) to quantify the covariability of solar and wind resources as a function of time and location, over multi-decadal time scales and up to continental length scales. Assuming minimal excess generation, lossless transmission, and no other generation sources, the analysis indicates that wind-heavy or solar-heavy U.S.-scale power generation portfolios could in principle provide â¼80% of recent total annual U.S. electricity demand. However, to reliably meet 100% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeksâ(TM) worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand. To obtain â¼80% reliability, solar-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require sufficient energy storage to overcome the daily solar cycle, whereas wind-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require continental-scale transmission to exploit the geographic diversity of wind. Policy and planning aimed at providing a reliable electricity supply must therefore rigorously consider constraints associated with the geophysical variability of the solar and wind resourceâ"even over continental scales.

      Which contradicts what is said in the summary and TFA. In fact it seems like the author of TFA is illiterate and can't understand clear, simple English statements.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    3. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ROI with subsidization isn't really ROI. Be generous with your figures.

    4. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by ranton · · Score: 4, Informative

      ROI with subsidization isn't really ROI. Be generous with your figures.

      Which form of energy is not subsidized by the government? If you look at fossil fuels and renewal energy, fossil fuels produce about 4 times more energy but enjoy 7 times more subsidies. It takes a lot of government money to keep coal and oil prices so low, almost twice as much money per unit of energy produced than is spent making renewable energy cheaper.

      Subsidy comparison
      Energy Production comparison

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    5. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Everybody in the already-developed world has this issue. The non-toxic, recyclable, high temperature range "Household Battery" that is charged during the daily production times, lasts at least for a 20 years of recharges, and can serve currents that drive oven, washing machine, vacuum cleaner, lights and the game console at the same time, while the system is able to scale up with additional batteries doesn't exists in the market yet. I can think of at least a couple of areas in the world of over a billion people that could use one.

    6. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by doom · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually, I don't see any contradiction at all, and you skipped various other links in this piece such as: Deep Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector from March 2017

      In addition, there is strong agreement in the literature that a diversified mix of low-CO2 generation resources offers the best chance of affordably achieving deep decarbonization. While it is theoretically possible to rely primarily (or even entirely) on variable renewable energy resources such as wind and solar, it would be significantly more challenging and costly than pathways that employ a diverse portfolio of resources. In particular, including dispatchable low-carbon resources in the portfolio, such as nuclear energy or fossil energy with carbon capture and storage (CCS), would significantly reduce the cost and technical challenges of deep decarbonization.

      I think your sneer-o-matic is stuck.

    7. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Solandri · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There is no contradiction. This is the standard 80/20 rule of thumb in engineering. Designing to achieve 80% utilization is easy and cheap. Designing to achieve the remaining 20% is hard and ridiculously expensive, and usually not worth it. All TFA and the paper do is confirm that this rule also applies to renewables.

    8. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      No contradiction, "several weeks worth of storage" will cost a fortune, and is not required in a "mixed energy" scenario. Read your own quote:

      However, to reliably meet 100% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeks worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand.

    9. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by AmiMoJo · · Score: 3, Funny

      TFA first states that

      Pushing to meet 100 percent of demand with these resources would require building a huge number of additional wind and solar farmsâ"or expanding electricity storage to an extent that would be prohibitively expensive at current prices. Or some of both.

      Translation: it gets expensive if you do it the stupidest possible way.

      It then doubles down on the stupid by investigating the stupid way in more depth:

      Just getting to 80 percent of demand reliably with only wind and solar would require either a US-wide high-speed transmission system or 12 hours of electricity storage. A storage system of that size across the US would cost more than $2.5 trillion for a battery system.

      Yeah, a giant battery would be expensive, but fortunately you already gave us the solution and Europe has demonstrated that it works just fine. But nah, let's ignore that because look, $2,500,000,000,000 battery!

      The summary is even worse, leaving out the obvious, tried and tested solution completely and instead trying to give the impression that it's just really really expensive and there is no alternative except non-renewable sources.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    10. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From the abstract you quoted:

      [T]o reliably meet 100% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeks' worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand.

      From TFA:

      Pushing to meet 100 percent of demand with these resources would require building a huge number of additional wind and solar farms -- or expanding electricity storage to an extent that would be prohibitively expensive at current prices.

      That's ... actually a pretty good summary. Why did you say that it's contradictory?

    11. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      once the ever increasing solar powered homes with battery storage and on-charge EV batteries join the grid via local microgrids that "fortune" diminishes. Its a one off cost for the person who buys it. There is always a mistaken assumption that there should only be centralised power storage, its about time people stop thinking every solution must be a silver bullet solution.

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    12. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      The VOX link is propaganda, nothing more. The EIA posts what the subsidies actually are, and if you look at the data, renewables are subsidized at a rate of 7:1 over fossil fuels. Even though we make nearly 15X more power with fossil fuels - a ratio of 100:1 per kWh generated.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    13. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Dragonslicer · · Score: 1

      However, once you've got the renewable energy sources in place and harvested, the cost will die out, quickly. It's called ROI, and the smart people have obtained almost insane ROI (on the order of 3 months in some related techs like LEDs powered by renewable resources up to 5 years for full solar+wind-powered farms) so they really don't have to worry about this.

      Obviously you have no idea what you're talking about, since all returns must happen by the end of the next quarter.

    14. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Which contradicts what is said in the summary and TFA. In fact it seems like the author of TFA is illiterate and can't understand clear, simple English statements.

      You're giving them too much credit. The point of TFA was to promulgate the idea the US could go 100% renewable and the only reason we aren't is because evil, greedy, nasty, awful, despicable, immoral people are stopping it. And those same people happen to be the ones TFA's author hates and despises because they conflict with his pre-established worldview. Hence, the abstract and TFA don't...quite...match.

      Good on you for picking up on it and pointing it out, not that any of this crowd will listen to inconvenient things like "facts" and "reality."

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    15. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ahem. I believe you meant coal instead of oil. Our electrical power generation in the US has been coal based.

    16. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Freischutz · · Score: 1

      TFA is nonsense anyway. The actual paper appears to be this one: http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content...

      The abstract says:

      We analyze 36 years of global, hourly weather data (1980â"2015) to quantify the covariability of solar and wind resources as a function of time and location, over multi-decadal time scales and up to continental length scales. Assuming minimal excess generation, lossless transmission, and no other generation sources, the analysis indicates that wind-heavy or solar-heavy U.S.-scale power generation portfolios could in principle provide â¼80% of recent total annual U.S. electricity demand. However, to reliably meet 100% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeksâ(TM) worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand. To obtain â¼80% reliability, solar-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require sufficient energy storage to overcome the daily solar cycle, whereas wind-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require continental-scale transmission to exploit the geographic diversity of wind. Policy and planning aimed at providing a reliable electricity supply must therefore rigorously consider constraints associated with the geophysical variability of the solar and wind resourceâ"even over continental scales.

      Which contradicts what is said in the summary and TFA. In fact it seems like the author of TFA is illiterate and can't understand clear, simple English statements.

      I have watched a ton of documentaries and presentations by scientist, grid specialists and people from the energy industry and they all agree that you can replace between 70 and 80% of your energy generation with renewables. A lot of the renewable energy generation will take place in very close proximity to the consumers. This will take the form of wind generator parks, solar generation parks and a considerable amount of renewable energy generation will probably take place on the roof of the consumer's house or in their back yard with a corresponding reduction in the need for grid infrastructure. Throw in some storage, 20 to 30% always-on power generation (nuclear/gas + carbon capture), smart grid technology, maybe even super conductors, cutting edge computer model aided planning of wind/solar park location and a generally modernised grid and you have the future of energy production. The Germans aim for 80% replacement with their 'Energiewende' move to renewables but they also factor in a certain amount of always-on power-plants. This is what the experts say and it is also what that abstract is basically saying as well. Now did anybody expect a bunch of German engineers to decide you can cover the vast majority of your energy needs with renewables without first doing the math on the problem first? The idea of going for 100% renewables is not viable, it never has been, you will always need some always-on power-plants in your mix. Focusing on the 100% renewables case when the one everybody is aiming for is the 70 to 80% case is simply a cheap attempt to find material for some good old fashioned FUD that can double as clickbait.

    17. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think the quote you're looking for is “Americans can be trusted to do the right thing, but only after they had exhausted all the other alternatives.”

    18. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Picking and choosing what 'facts' to believe based on your religion again? Keep the FAITH Lynnwood.

    19. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "and usually not worth it"

      Like F*

      My favourite analogy is a house roof
      80% is straight sheeting, very easy
      20% is the ridges, valleys and drainage - far more fiddly and will cost as much to install as the roofing sheets

      Wow betide any prick who delivers me a roof missing the 20%

      Same Same at work, wow betide any developer who tries to hand over code without input checking....

    20. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      The EIA shows the actual Government spending; Vox bundles in a lot of "could be" and "possibly" and other things...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    21. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Keep picking and choosing, Keep the FAITH Lynnwood.

    22. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's clear you didn't even read it, as they specifically mention that they aren't including those things you reflexively use from your denialist playbook,they only used direct production subsidies, and not even easily calculated consumption subsidies . They used actual numbers and actual data. Unlike your made up assertions, already shown to be blatant lies.

    23. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Then why are their numbers different from that which the actual Government - the EIA - reports? HINT: they're padding and grasping at straws to state their case.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    24. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So your numbers (that you didn't show) from the link (that you also didn't show) are different to the numbers in the other link (that you didn't read)
      Yep I'm convinced...
      Point out their errors if it's so easy or STFU.

    25. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      If you're too lazy to follow the links from the original poster's own page... Here you go - the EIA's own subsidy numbers.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    26. Re:NEWSFLASH: WATER IS WET by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Congrats! You posted data that doesn't relate to your claim!

      Point out their errors if it's so easy or STFU.

  7. Upfront vs long term costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    People are mistaking the upfront cost for long term costs.

  8. We don't need zero carbon emissions by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm about as much of a greenie as you are likely to run across. I'm strongly of the opinion that we cannot get solar and wind power to be major parts of the grid fast enough. We also need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels (which we do globally to the tune of about $5 Trillion annually) and force them to cost the full economic value of the pollution they cause. That said, the notion that we can rely solely on wind and solar (and hydro where available) in the near future is preposterous. Doing that in a rational way would take a century just due to the cost alone. Fossil fuels simply aren't going away for many decades at minimum no matter what. Fortunately we don't need to get carbon emitting energy sources to zero. We need to get them to a level that the ecosystem can handle which is obviously much lower than it is today. Use nuclear to replace fossil fuels where possible and solar and wind for most of the rest. Yes we will need batteries too. The grid WILL need to be updated no matter what so I don't see that as a bad thing. But if we need to spend the money to keep the planet habitable then no real benefit to waiting.

    One beef with the summary is that there currently is no such thing as fossil fuels with carbon capture technology. There is NO industrial scale carbon capture or carbon sequestration technology available nor any reasonable prospect of such technology in the near future. So take that off the table as an option until such time as it becomes a real thing.

    1. Re:We don't need zero carbon emissions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      I was thinking exactly the same thing about the reference to carbon capture since it isn't a thing that has been done in any large scale way plus it costs money even if it works, when you add that cost to the cost of the fuel makes it something nobody will fund either.

      Also leads me to believe that the study may not be all that credible since carbon capture and "clean coal" are how the fossil fuel industry is trying to delay renewables.... we'll have clean coal next year so why do you need those dangerous toxic solar panels that never generate more power than it takes to manufacture them and those bird murdering wind turbines !

      Won't someone think of the birds !

      I don't think nuclear is the way to go with current technology, it's 100% safe until it isn't ( how about a swim in Fukashima bay six years after the tsunami ? no ?). And I believe the conversion of the cost of building, fueling and decommissioning a large scale reactor is roughly "one metric crap ton" of solar panels and batteries, somebody should do the math on that as a distributed generation and storage system. I'm thinking it could provide a comparable number of houses with power and the fuel is stored 93 million miles away and there is already a system that protects us from most of it's radiation.

      Unless there is a another Carrington Event... but that didn't hurt anyone.

      But the average US household power consumption is a bit high and should be reduced or at least thought about since most Americans ( myself included ) don't even really think about power usage and mostly feel that is below us and for those "other countries".

      I'm putting an off grid Tesla Powerwall and solar panels on my cabin because it costs less than attaching it to the grid ( which is only 500' away ) and I won't have to pay a power bill. I will need to replace the battery in about 20 years ( since it's not cycling constantly, it'll last a lot longer than the 10 years it's guaranteed for ) and by then the replacement will be a lot cheaper.

      Also my payback for going solar is on day one.

    2. Re:We don't need zero carbon emissions by doom · · Score: 1

      We also need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels (which we do globally to the tune of about $5 Trillion annually) and force them to cost the full economic value of the pollution they cause.

      There you have it. That's step one for any kind of green energy future, nuclear or not. It's the one thing you'd think we should all agree on and be pushing for.

      Instead the renewables-enthusiasts are telling themselves solar is going to take off like cellphones if only they can cheer for it loudly enough.

    3. Re:We don't need zero carbon emissions by doom · · Score: 2

      One beef with the summary is that there currently is no such thing as fossil fuels with carbon capture technology.

      True, it remains a speculative, experimental idea, and myself I don't hold out much hope that it's workable.

      Nevertheless, the policy recommendations of the last IPCC report recommend trying to develop CCS (along with wind, solar and nuclear)-- they make the point that if we did get it working, burning biomass would go from a carbon-neutral power source to a carbon absorbing power source. It isn't so much that we're likely to get functional CCS, but the prize is big enough that it's worth going after it.

      (And to the renewables enthusiasts in the audience: you can't go on ranting about those arrogant conservatives ignoring the scientific consensus, and then shrug off the policy recommendations of the IPCC. They said we need nuclear. Got it?)

    4. Re:We don't need zero carbon emissions by careysub · · Score: 1

      One beef with the summary is that there currently is no such thing as fossil fuels with carbon capture technology. There is NO industrial scale carbon capture or carbon sequestration technology available nor any reasonable prospect of such technology in the near future. So take that off the table as an option until such time as it becomes a real thing.

      True, but since it is only needed to cover that last 20%, when we are already have 80% wind and solar, it is not needed now. We are currently at 15%, and at a reasonable 4.5% annual growth rate in production we will get to 80% in about 40 years. We can cut it to about 30 years at 6% a year, but in any case we are few decades off of needing this technology to be ready.

      It is normal for a technology that is not yet needed not to be already deployed.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    5. Re:We don't need zero carbon emissions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think one should be cautious with believing highly politicized information re: AGW and renewable energy. There are some in government who want their governed to give up their resources (to the government) for no purpose other than gaining more power. I believe there is some truth to AGW, CO2 is a greenhouse gas, this can be plainly observed by recording an absorption spectrum of the gas. The effects, the rate that effects emerge, and our ability to offset those effects are very much unknown. Still, people cry that we need to give up our resources to fight it at any cost and call anyone who questions any part of that conclusion a "denier" because their cause is "settled science." The settled science crowd are, in fact, anti-science. Scientific knowledge exists solely to be tested, questioned, poked, and prodded until clearer more correct scientific knowledge is obtained. I don't think AGW is a lie, but so-called scientists who claim this is "settled science" and everyone who questions any aspect of it are "deniers" have abandoned the impartial analysis of facts and taken up a religious/political cause.

  9. Fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technology by rsilvergun · · Score: 2

    aka "Clean Coal". There's a reason there hasn't been much traction here. Yes, you can make a zero emission coal or gas fired plant. It's just not economical when compared to wind & solar.

    The costs get inflated only if you ignore cost externalization (subsidies for one, but medical costs due to dirty air are pretty massive too). Nuclear would be fine if we could trust it to stay safe. But until you can convince Americans to stop privatizing everything or make a nuke plant that's cheaper to run safely than to run dangerously then nuke's a non-starter. Sooner or later we'll privatize it to save money and those savings will come at the cost of safety like they did over in Fukushima. Meanwhile the folks responsible for the inevitable disaster get off scott free.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  10. Depends on what you can do with the demand curve by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 2

    The demand curve is really the important part of the equation; to make renewables effective you really need to minimize load when the sources are not available. That is a challenge with current technology in the winter, because you intrinsically have a large demand block between sunset and 9PM. In the summer you can have plenty of excess capacity from PV, but hot late-autumn days are a challenge.

    So, what can you do?

    • EV Charging at the workplace
    • Reduce office building ventilation rates from sunset to 9PM
    • Chilled water/ice storage with heat recovery chillers running during the day
    • Reduce traditional "peak period" rates and increase "mid-peak" rates to better reflect the (net) demand curve
    • Better insulate buildings to reduce winter heating energy
    • Program dishwashers, dryers, hot water heaters to take advantage of excess capacity
    • Reduce site lighting levels, especially after close of business
    • ...

    It isn't that hard to make things work on renewables only if you have plenty of wind energy, but you need to reduce expectations of central grid reliability. Inter-connected microgrids have a lot of promise for being the prime source of end-user reliability and economic viability.

    And, if you don't have the wind resources and have high heat and electric loads in the winter, what the hell... put in some gas recip engines with district heating.

  11. Wait, what? by haruchai · · Score: 1

    "fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technology"

    Which plants like that have been built or are in operation?
    How efficient are they? I've heard of one project where CCS consumed ~25% of total plant power.
    Coalwashing may soon put greenwashing to shame.

    --
    Pain is merely failure leaving the body
  12. Inflates the cost or just front loads it... by ironstorm8938 · · Score: 3, Insightful
    The thing is renewals may be more expensive up front but that because they represent the true cost of producing the energy, not because they are a bad idea!

    The alternatives are just kicking-the-can-down-the-road... How much will it cost to retrofit or decommission that nuclear plant in 15 or 20 years? How much will it cost to get the carbon out of the atmosphere after it messes up our weather to the point where the growing season is unstable and it's hard to grow crops reliably?

    There's an old saying... You can pay now or you can pay later, but it usually costs more later.

    1. Re:Inflates the cost or just front loads it... by doom · · Score: 2

      The thing is renewals may be more expensive up front but that because they represent the true cost of producing the energy ...

      Funny, I was thinking the same thing about nuclear power.

      And no one actually does a very good job of making sure the price of photovaltaics pays for the environmental damage done in manufacturing them (let alone of disposing of them).

    2. Re:Inflates the cost or just front loads it... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

      Disposing PV panels does no environmentsl damage.
      They are mostly glass amd the metal is recycled, or would you throw away metal that you don't have to refine but can just melt?
      Production has no real environmental damage either. The dirty chemicals are recycled and reused and the raw materials are basically: sand.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    3. Re:Inflates the cost or just front loads it... by doom · · Score: 2

      sand

      Even if you're using purely silicon solar cells, you still need to refine the oxide and grow the crystals, the electrical leads are made of metal, and in general manufacturing any sort of thin-film electronics involves using some pretty crazy solvents (look up "hydrofluoric acid" some time) and if you're going to crank out enough PV cells fast enough to make a dent in global warming you're talking about doing this at a phenomenal scale, larger than anything ever done for IT gadgets.

      You're completely making up facts at this point-- you solar enthusiasts have the idea that the technology is magical, but it's really and truly just another technology. There are cool things about it, but it has drawbacks, and if you're going to pretend you know something about it you should learn something about it first...

      Try this: https://www.ucsusa.org/clean_e...

      The PV cell manufacturing process includes a number of hazardous materials, most of which are used to clean and purify the semiconductor surface. These chemicals, similar to those used in the general semiconductor industry, include hydrochloric acid, sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrogen fluoride, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and acetone. The amount and type of chemicals used depends on the type of cell, the amount of cleaning that is needed, and the size of silicon wafer [4]. Workers also face risks associated with inhaling silicon dust. Thus, PV manufactures must follow U.S. laws to ensure that workers are not harmed by exposure to these chemicals and that manufacturing waste products are disposed of properly.

      Thin-film PV cells contain a number of more toxic materials than those used in traditional silicon photovoltaic cells, including gallium arsenide, copper-indium-gallium-diselenide, and cadmium-telluride[5]. If not handled and disposed of properly, these materials could pose serious environmental or public health threats. However, manufacturers have a strong financial incentive to ensure that these highly valuable and often rare materials are recycled rather than thrown away.

    4. Re:Inflates the cost or just front loads it... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      All the stuf you consider hazzardouse stays in the plant.
      So ... what was your point?

      And silicon PV cells are not thin film PV cells.

      Get a clue about the topic or stay out of it.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  13. That's the thing by nospam007 · · Score: 2

    "that would be prohibitively expensive at current prices."

    That's one of the good things of 'the future'. I doesn't have to pay 'current' prices.
    Also, wind energy doesn't need any subsidies anymore, unlike coal, gas, oil and nukes.

  14. Chile, free electricity thanks to solar by Laurent007 · · Score: 1

    This is just a way to prepare public to pay more so companies whom male already huge profit don't spend a dime on modernizing the grid. But we have Chile as an example to prove the affirmation false! http://fortune.com/2016/06/04/...

  15. Solar on every roof by sjbe · · Score: 1, Interesting

    What makes renewables bad is that we don't have reliable storage.

    We have reliable storage, or at least the technology to make it. Tesla and others have seen to that. What we don't have is cheap and plentiful storage. Part of that is because we haven't ramped up battery production to full scale and part of it is that we're still trying to reduce cost in the face of subsidized fossil fuels which makes clean options seem more expensive than they actually are.

    Long term is every home can cover 75% of their bas usage with solar and batteries then the need for large grid scale systems shrinks.

    Yes, exactly. Every rooftop that can have solar should have solar. It would make the grid more reliable, cleaner, and eventually cheaper. It would require the grid to be upgraded in certain ways but that's not a bad thing. What we have now is rather outdated anyway. Yes we need batteries to do this but again, that's not a bad thing in the long run.

    1. Re:Solar on every roof by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      learning fucking math

      then tell us how many you need and where all the resources for that is going to come from...

      it isn't pretty..

    2. Re:Solar on every roof by doom · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Every rooftop that can have solar should have solar.

      Possibly, but that maxes out at around 40 percent of our current electical power needs (not including HVAC and transportation, even). So what else do we do?

      It would make the grid more reliable, cleaner, and eventually cheaper. It would require the grid to be upgraded in certain ways but that's not a bad thing. What we have now is rather outdated anyway. Yes we need batteries to do this but again, that's not a bad thing in the long run.

      I sincerely hope you religious fanatics don't get us all killed. The right is in denial about the problem, but the left is in denial about the solutions.

    3. Re:Solar on every roof by MountainLogic · · Score: 1

      Pumped hydro is a utility scale solution to storage that is proven reliable and cost effective.

    4. Re:Solar on every roof by Shotgun · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Every rooftop that can have solar should have solar.

      Possibly, but that maxes
      out at around 40 percent of our current electical power
      needs (not including HVAC and transportation, even). So what else do we do?

      The second step is to cover the parking lot, especially where I work. As an added source of revenue, I would PAY to park my car in the shade of the panel.

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    5. Re: Solar on every roof by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where we can install it. Which we mostly have. And the amount of pumped hydro needed is approximately twice the volume of lake Michigan, raised 100 feet, to actually handle all storage needs, and cover for seasonal shortfalls.

  16. Nothing to see here by robot256 · · Score: 1

    Pure FUD. The writer (in the summary) lost all credibility when he said carbon capture tech is needed because current battery prices are too high. Funny thing, though, that renewables and batteries are already cheap enough to drive fossil plants out of business. Carbon capture is important, yes, but we need it to drive our emissions *negative* in the second half of this century. To get to net zero in the first half of the century, demolishing smokestacks is the fastest way.

    1. Re:Nothing to see here by doom · · Score: 1

      robot256 wrote:

      Pure FUD. The writer (in the summary) lost all credibility when he said carbon capture tech is needed because current battery prices are too high.

      The author did not actually say that (and I just lost all respect for you, and to tell you the truth I didn't care who you have respect for to start with). Here it is again:

      It increasingly appears that insisting on 100 percent renewable sources-- and disdaining others that don't produce greenhouse gases, such as nuclear power and fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technology-- is wastefully expensive and needlessly difficult.

      robot256 wrote:

      Funny thing, though, that renewables and batteries are already cheap enough to drive fossil plants out of business.

      They're currently subsidized. And the fossil fuel plants aren't actually going out of business, and by the way burning natural gas does count as a fossil fuel. (In terms of C02 release natural gas is only half as bad as coal, but that's still pretty bad, and methane leaks-- the joys of fracking-- could easily make it equivalent.)

      Carbon capture is important, yes, but we need it to drive our emissions *negative* in the second half of this century.

      The last IPCC recommended working on biomass with CCS as a way to do just that.

  17. 80-20 Rule by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Usually you can get 80% of the benefits for 20% of the costs, but the last 20% will cost much more than the first 80%.

    Amazing how often this rule applies . . .

    1. Re:80-20 Rule by careysub · · Score: 1

      The cost of that last 20% is steeper on a percentage basis, but the aggregate cost is definitely not more (much less "much more") than the aggregate cost of the first 80%.

      And part of the solution is not to demand that only solar and wind be used. Nuclear should still be in the mix (licenses are available for any capitalist who wants to build one) for example. There are a lot of options that could cover that last 20% (biofuels, carbon capture, nuclear as cited) and competition and innovation will push us toward the lowest cost way of doing it.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    2. Re:80-20 Rule by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      and competition and innovation will push us toward the lowest cost way of doing it.
      You still believe that myth?

      It worked wonders for the american fast food industry.
      For housing/rent in the center of NYC not so much.
      Neither for health care or student tuitions ...

      Most bills in the long term go up, they don't go down.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  18. Simon says by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2

    The need for renewable is a separate issue from the need for green energy.

    The former is about the running out of fossil fuels, and the latter, pollution, and, specifically, greenhouse gases.

    The latter has value, but the former not so much anymore as Julian Simon's undefeated predictive capability has shown a relatively free economic society can adapt to shortage stressors faster then they become the prognosticated problem, and prices continue to drop.

    This is counter-intuitive, but makes successful predictions again and again and again since the shortage scares of the 1970s. Peak Oil, a reskin of such fears, predictably fell.

    --
    (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
  19. Textbook Diminishing Returns by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Really this isn't surprising. Increased opportunity cost - you can usually get most of what you want for next to nothing (80% renewable power contribution). As you try to get more and more of that one thing, it starts to become very very expensive. Honestly, anyone who deals in absolutes doesn't understand problem solving. They are both tools to solve a problem. It has become clear that fossil fuels are a poor tool for full power satisfaction. It has also become clear that renewables are an equally poor tool for full power satisfaction. Instead, we can produce most of our power with renewables, and fill in the gaps with fossil fuels. How is an 80% improvement still not good enough?

    This isn't about winning, its about having a better, more refined, plan for satisfying out power needs. Just because a few fossil fuel plants stay up doesn't mean you "lost". If we could leave a few natural gas power plants up and spare ourselves building an entire industry for power storage from the ground up just so we can tell everyone we did something good for the environment I think you can see where the waste starts to come in.

    1. Re:Textbook Diminishing Returns by robot256 · · Score: 4, Informative

      It has also become clear that renewables are an equally poor tool for full power satisfaction.

      Except actual studies show that grids get *more* reliable when renewables are added. Funny thing about the sun, it doesn't go out all at once the way a 500MW coal plant does when a turbine overheats. Tesla's Big Battery in South Australia has compensated for several fossil-plant shutdowns much quicker than spinning reserve can--eventually they will be able to reduce the amount of spinning reserve in favor of batteries. But you're absolutely right, we don't have anything to worry about until we actually hit that 80% mark, and by that time we're likely to have even more solutions available.

  20. Re:Moscow Donald is powered 100% by Russia's Gov. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Vladimir Putin order Moscow Donald around like the NRA orders republicans to arm school shooters and known criminals.

    you're a fucking idiot, please, do the world a favor, snip your testicles and/or fallopian tubes so you simply cannot reproduce! parrots should not be able to poison the gene pool with the absurdly low level of intellect you possess.

  21. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

    You seem to be assuming that there is never a need to run the A/C 24-7. Which is normal about seven months of the year down here in N'Awlins. Lows above 27C at night, highs above 35C in daylight. Every day except winter....

    --

    "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  22. The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by FeelGood314 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Coal should have died in the 60s but groups like Green Peace saved it by driving the cost of nuclear through the roof. 60s nuclear technology was safe, we even knew how to safely dispose of waste in the 60s. We couldn't dispose of it with zero radiation leak but guess what the world is mildly radio active anyway and coal, that thing that replace nuclear, spreads radio active material more than nuclear does.

    Ten years ago we solved a lot of the problems with renewables, it was called variable pricing for electricity. People and their appliances can be incentivized to use electricity when it is produced by changing less when the wind blows or the sun is shinning and charging over $0.70/kwh when it isn't. This saved consumers money and saved the utilities even more. Unfortunately the utilities that took a risk and tried this got fucked over by their public utility commissions. (Oklahoma public utility commission almost single handedly set back renewable energy by 5 years)

    Last it will never make sense for urban homes to have battery back up. It is always better to share your capacity among several houses, or several thousand houses. Like maybe make it a public utility to store and deliver electricity

    Also get white roof shingles!!!

    These are all easy things, things that could have already done with a little leadership and maybe getting some of these Green groups to actually think instead of parade around trying to get attention for themselves.

    Lastly fuck the pro-rail crude oil transportation advocates. They often go by the anti pipeline crusade.

    1. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here in Canada we get white roof shingles every winter. Doesn't seem to help with the heating costs though.

    2. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by denbesten · · Score: 1

      .. charging less when the wind blows or the sun is shining and charging over $0.70/kwh when it isn't.... it will never make sense for urban homes to have battery back up.

      You might have just disproved your own point. Under a plan that would allow me to buy electricity for $0.12/kwh (the current national average) on-peak vs $0.70/kwh off-peak, I could very quickly pay for a powerwall just to shift my demand.

      Also get white roof shingles!!!

      Ventilation plays a much bigger factor than shingle color. Since I spend much more to heat than cool my house, in my part of the country black makes more sense. Too bad it costs so much to repaint the roof twice per year for optimal efficiency.

    3. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

      Since the late 1970s exhaust of coal plants are scrubbed. So they exhaust no radioactivvity at all.
      Amd we basically nevver knew how to dispose of nuclear waste from nuclesr plants. But if you know a way, publish it and farm in a Nobel Prize.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    4. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      Also get white roof shingles!!!

      Sure if you want to royally piss of the neighbours. Better still get black roof shingles that double as solar panels.

    5. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by Mike+Van+Pelt · · Score: 2, Informative

      So, after coal plant exhaust is scrubbed, what is done with all that fly ash? The radioactivity that coal plants used to emit is all in the coal ash.

      We do know how to dispose of waste from nuclear plants. The omni-obstructionists just will not permit it. They want the waste to stay right where it is, in cooling ponds a nuclear power plants, where they can get filmed for the evening news wringing their hands over it and wailing "The horror, oooo, the horror!"

      As for a disposal site, go to Google Earth and search for "Sedan Crater". Scan south. That's the general area of Yucca Mountain, an lunar landscape of atomic bomb craters lined with completely uncontained fission products and unburned plutonium. No anti-nuke has ever given a remotely adequate explanation of how glassified, contained waste is more of a problem than what is already there.

    6. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      60s nuclear technology was safe

      You mean the one used to build Three Miles Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima power plants?

    7. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      When the exhaust of a coal plant is scrubbed, it has no fly ash.
      Next question?

      And why the funk do you think nuclear waste is first of all stored in cooling ponds? Where else would you store it?

      No idea about Yucca mounten, though ... but also no idea why you want to produce nuclear waste and deposit it there when you can have clean renewables.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    8. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Disposing of nuclear waste is easy.

      You reprocess the spent fuel to extract the 90% of unused fuel so it can be fabricated into new fuel assemblies and then the highly-concentrated and highly-radioactive waste is vitrified by mixing it with borosilicate glass or converting to "synrock", encasing the resultant solid slugs in multiple containment layers of epoxy, lead, copper and stainless steel then burying it deep underground in stable rock formations surrounded by bentonite clay before capping and backfilling with concrete.

      Being highly radioactive, the concentrated waste has a much shorter half-life and should have decayed to natural background radiation levels in just a few centuries. I doubt anyone is going to be going to the bother of drilling down 500-1000m of concreted borehole to recover said waste.

      That being said, dealing with reprocessing spent fuel at this time isn't really worth the hassle while we have abundant sources of cheap virgin uranium, so we can simply stockpile it above-ground in dry storage casks until economics dictate that it's cost-effective to reprocess.

      The main reason for reprocessing at the moment is to deal with decommissioning nuclear weapons. Plutonium and high-enriched uranium warheads are broken down and diluted to create either uranium fuel assemblies or "MOX" fuel which combines uranium and plutonium.

    9. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by blindseer · · Score: 2

      When the exhaust of a coal plant is scrubbed, it has no fly ash.

      It still has ash. Ash that contains radioactive material. Radioactive material that can dissolve in water or blow away in the wind if not contained. Right now coal ash is usually just dumped into open pits. Some times we'll see it used instead of sand in the concrete used to pave roads. This seems like a logical way to dispose of radioactive material from nuclear power plants as well, mix it in with concrete to keep it from blowing or washing away and to shield people from any radioactive emissions.

      but also no idea why you want to produce nuclear waste and deposit it there when you can have clean renewables.

      Because nuclear is safer, cheaper, and more reliable than any renewable energy. I'll hear advocates for wind and solar talk about how cheap they are, and to address the problems of reliability we can just add batteries. Well, if you add in the cost of the batteries then wind and solar isn't so cheap any more.

      Solar isn't so "clean" either. When the solar panels reach the end of their profitable lifespan there isn't a good way to recycle them, we'd have to dispose of them as hazardous waste. PV panels contain toxic metals like lead, chromium, and cadmium. I read that on a website called Slashdot, perhaps you've heard of it.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    10. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh please stop being dense. You now have a dirty filter element to dispose of that caught all that fly ash. The ash didn't magically disappear since you don't see it in the exhaust.

      Waste has to be cooled off before permanent storage in a place like Yucca. Since Yucca was never opened that waste is still "cooling" in those ponds now for decades. Those ponds which were temporary storage have now become effectively permanent. Next question?

    11. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by blindseer · · Score: 2

      The main reason for reprocessing at the moment is to deal with decommissioning nuclear weapons. Plutonium and high-enriched uranium warheads are broken down and diluted to create either uranium fuel assemblies or "MOX" fuel which combines uranium and plutonium.

      Thanks to mismanagement by Obama and his Democrat friends the USA has gone backwards in its ability to reprocess nuclear waste. For decades Democrats have held up efforts to reprocess old warheads and spent nuclear fuel. They prefer "downblending" over reprocessing. Downblending is just mixing the plutonium and other valuable isotopes with enough other crap to make it difficult to extract it again. This is not only dumping a bunch of valuable fuel into a hole in the ground but also does not destroy it as demanded by treaties. It still exists, it's just hard to get it back. Reprocessing plutonium into fuel would actually destroy the plutonium as it's "burned" in a reactor. People claim nuclear power is a risk of nuclear weapon proliferation, quite the opposite really. Nuclear power makes that plutonium valuable for something other than dropping it on cities and vaporizing them.

      Not only could plutonium and uranium be extracted for fuel but so could so many other valuable isotopes for industrial, medical, and scientific uses. NASA is desperate for neptunium which they use to produce the Pu-238 they use as power sources in deep space probes. Solar panels work well out to perhaps the orbit of Mars but even then there is a risk of going into a shadow and having fragile electronics freeze and crack in space. They'll need a heat source like Pu-238 to keep them warm.

      There are some very valuable isotopes used for cancer treatments and diagnostic exams. They are also used to irradiate food to kill off disease that could be spread. Irradiating food does not make it radioactive, just like how dental X-ray doesn't make your teeth radioactive.

      Disposing of nuclear waste is easy.

      I agree. There is nothing wrong with putting the waste in a hole in the ground until we can figure out how to reprocess it properly. The problem with that though is many of the medically valuable isotopes will decay away quickly. We could still use it for fuel and such but it's value for many uses diminishes with time. What if we don't figure out how to reprocess it? Then we can leave the stuff in the hole.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    12. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 0

      The ash contains usually no radioactive material.
      Only certain coal types do.

      You know: coal is made from dead trees that died a few million years ago ... where exactly should the radioactivity come from?

      Coal ash is usually used as building material, e.g. for roads. The ash that contains radioactive material is far less radioactive than e.g. uranium ore ...

      Because nuclear is safer, cheaper, and more reliable than any renewable energy.
      Why do you repeat this nonsense every of your posts?
      It is wrong on all three terms: "safer, cheaper, and more reliable" ... you mean dispatch able, not reliable. There is a reason why dictionaries have words in them: look them up sometimes.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    13. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by blindseer · · Score: 1

      You know: coal is made from dead trees that died a few million years ago ... where exactly should the radioactivity come from?

      It came from the dirt that the plants grew in. Uranium, thorium, and other radioactive elements are everywhere and the plants will incorporate these elements into their structure as nutrients taken up from the soil. When the plants die and turn to coal that radioactive material is still there.

      you mean dispatch able, not reliable.

      No, I meant reliable. As in we can rely on the nuclear power to be available when we need it. Perhaps a specific reactor will have to go down for refuel and maintenance but on the whole a fleet of reactors will be able to provide 90% of their rated capacity regardless of the wind, sun, or rain.

      Nuclear power is not considered dispatchable because nuclear reactors are very expensive to run and only make money if they are making energy. Reducing the power output of a nuclear reactor is a very long and expensive process in normal operation and is therefore only done as a last resort. Reducing power output quickly from a nuclear reactor is also possible but could result in it being off line for days, and therefore not making money for days.

      Why do you repeat this nonsense every of your posts?

      Because no one has provided anything that tells me otherwise. I'm not just going to take the word from some random anonymous internet poster that I'm wrong. If you don't believe me then look it up yourself and show me that I'm wrong.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    14. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Interesting idea about radioactivity of coal, but wrong.

      Perhaps you want to google it?

      No, I meant reliable. As in we can rely on the nuclear power to be available when we need it.
      And that is called "dispatchable".

      Nuclear power is not considered dispatchable
      Actually it is considered dispatchable and also treated like that, see France e.g.

      because nuclear reactors are very expensive to run and only make money if they are making energy.
      Strange, a few posts back you claimed Nuclear power would be the cheapest ...

      Reducing the power output of a nuclear reactor is a very long and expensive process in normal operation and is therefore only done as a last resort
      No it is not.

      Reducing power output quickly from a nuclear reactor is also possible but could result in it being off line for days, and therefore not making money for days.
      That is wrong.
      The question in old nuclear reactors is: how quickly do you power it up again after you have reduced the power.

      Because no one has provided anything that tells me otherwise.
      Then you are bad in reading. The threats about power on /. point that out every time. Solar and wind is now so cheap they decommission coal plants because they are to expensive. Nuclear always was the most expensive power in traditional mixes, hence there are not many countries that produce more than 20% - 40% of their load with nuclear power.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    15. Re:The Green Virtue Signaling / Politics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Interesting idea about radioactivity of coal, but wrong.

      Perhaps you want to google it?

      I did "google it" and there is no dispute that there are radioactive materials in all coal. There might be some dispute on how it got there, as in if it was in the plants to begin with or was carried in by movement of water, but it's there.

      No, I meant reliable. As in we can rely on the nuclear power to be available when we need it.
      And that is called "dispatchable".

      Nuclear power is not considered dispatchable
      Actually it is considered dispatchable and also treated like that, see France e.g.

      Go read a dictionary. Have you considered that nuclear is both reliable and dispatchable? Also, wind and solar are not reliable. Now you will say I mean "intermittent"? Fuck you. It's energy that cannot be relied upon to be there when you need it. Nuclear is there when people need it. If you want to call that "dispatchable" then whatever, that just makes you an idiot that's fighting on the definition of a term while nuclear power is keeping your computer running.

      France does not dispatch nuclear because the operation of a nuclear power plant is essentially constant, halving output means the cost of the electricity doubles. If people want cheap electricity then sources that burn expensive fuel, like coal and gas, are turned off before those that burn cheap fuel, like nuclear.

      because nuclear reactors are very expensive to run and only make money if they are making energy.
      Strange, a few posts back you claimed Nuclear power would be the cheapest ...

      Are you that stupid or are you just being difficult? Nuclear power is cheap because it makes a lot of electricity when its running, far more than enough to cover the expense it takes to run. If it is shut down it's not making money, and therefore gets more expensive. This is no different than solar. Those solar collectors cost a lot of money to own. If they aren't pointed at the sun then they are not making electricity, and therefore not making money. If you want cheap solar power then you have those collectors pointed at the sun as long as you can. Not pointing them at the sun raises costs but raises no money either. Do you understand?

      Because no one has provided anything that tells me otherwise.
      Then you are bad in reading. The threats about power on /. point that out every time. Solar and wind is now so cheap they decommission coal plants because they are to expensive. Nuclear always was the most expensive power in traditional mixes, hence there are not many countries that produce more than 20% - 40% of their load with nuclear power.

      It's kind of difficult to read what you don't cite. Am I expected to read your mind on how to get the data you've seen?

      Here's my source, https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/2.15.13-IER-Web-LevelizedCost-MKM.pdf
      Nuclear is cheaper than solar and offshore wind, also the same price as onshore wind. Add in the need for "dispatchable" power and the effective cost of wind and solar goes up.

  23. Externalized Costs by duckintheface · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The model does not include the cost of nuke plants that melt down, even though we know they do that periodically. And will do it more often as they age. The model does not include the cost of the damage done by global warming. Or rather, it assigns that cost to renewables by failing to credit them for saving the Earth. The model does not consider the effect that radical energy use reductions would have on the overall cost.

    This sounds more like the death knell of status quo energy interests and not so much like a reasoned appeal to fact. If these guys know so much, why didn't they tell us last year that alternative energy could provide 80% of needs. Wonder what the number will be next year.

    --
    "He took a duck in the face at 250 knots." -- William Gibson, Pattern Recognition
    1. Re:Externalized Costs by gnick · · Score: 1

      ...making more babies which is a net increase on the resources of the planet.

      That's an optimistic view of "more mouths to feed."

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    2. Re:Externalized Costs by imgod2u · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Do modern nuclear plants *really* melt down that often or at all? CA is ~20% nuke powered and it has, to my knowledge, never experienced a meltdown. The only meltdowns that have happened are due to negligence and a natural disaster happening all at once.

      And really, if you're that NIMBY about it, just put the plant in the middle of nowhere and run a giant superconductor to the nearest power hub.

      I think too many people played Sim City and thought it was a reality simulator.

    3. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Your "extreme handwaving" response to Nuclear Power is a fine example of irrational fears resulting in a much worse outcome.

      Nuclear power is many many times less dangers that coal power production in terms of the radioactive materials released.

      Extreme handwaving and activism from organizations like Green Peace have misrepresented the dangers out nuclear energy, delayed the creation of along-term containment and processing facilities and caused a greater reliance on fossil fuels, which in turn has resulted in more rapid heating of the climate.

      In other words, your bullshit and the propaganda of the people misleading you will kill us all if it prevents us from moving to nuclear power for base-load energy

      Thank you

    4. Re: Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The real problem in nuclear power is that it can be played as a trump card. Once a power plant is built it needs to be maintained. Companies can shift that burden of maintenance to the community via appeals to fear.

      Alternatively: coal plants can be built and demolished if we donâ(TM)t like them. Humanity has never successfully demolished a nuclear reactor - itâ(TM)s too risky.

      Itâ(TM)s not that I donâ(TM)t trust the reactor, itâ(TM)s that I donâ(TM)t trust the people around it.

    5. Re:Externalized Costs by werepants · · Score: 5, Informative

      The model does not include the cost of nuke plants that melt down, even though we know they do that periodically.

      Come on, man, this is just blatant FUD. "Periodically" meaning 3 real incidents, EVER. Compare deaths from nuclear to constant deaths from solar (workers falling off roofs), wind (workers falling of turbines), hydroelectric (workers falling off dams, dams failing and wiping out entire towns), natural gas (workers dying in fires), coal (workers dying in fires AND dying in mines AND bystanders dying from lung disease), and you see that nuclear is far and away the safest energy source out there. Three completely separate references for you, all of which concur:
      https://www.nextbigfuture.com/...
      https://ourworldindata.org/wha...
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/j...

      There are a few good reasons to be wary of nuclear - frequent schedule/budget overruns being chief among them. There's also a huge cost for facility decommissioning that hasn't really been handled adequately. But safety concerns are outright lies - nuclear energy is literally and provably the safest form of energy that exists. That argument is bad and you should feel bad for making it.

    6. Re: Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Humanity has never successfully demolished a nuclear reactor - itâ(TM)s too risky.

      Bullshit.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Decommissioned_nuclear_power_stations_in_the_United_States

    7. Re:Externalized Costs by thegarbz · · Score: 4, Informative

      The model does not include the cost of nuke plants that melt down, even though we know they do that periodically.

      They do? Periodically? Like continuously every couple of years or something? To date there has been one meltdown due to insanity, one due to equipment failure, and one due to a natural disaster.

      Interestingly 2 of the 3 scenarios are not possible with any Gen III reactor design let alone Gen IV and the third one isn't possible with most reactors.

      I think you need to look up the word "periodically" in the dictionary. ... Or look up how nuclear disasters happen and why your comment is silly.

    8. Re:Externalized Costs by penandpaper · · Score: 2

      played Sim City and thought it was a reality simulator.

      Aliens won't come and destroy my lovely city? My whole life is a lie.

    9. Re:Externalized Costs by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 2, Informative

      The model does not include the cost of nuke plants that melt down, even though we know they do that periodically.

      The US has had exactly one reactor undergo partial meltdown since nuclear power became a thing roughly fifty years ago. To say you "know" nuclear plants experience meltdown "periodically" is utter nonsense and unsupported by any facts you can cite.

      Or perhaps you want to cite Chernobyl? Gee, what happens when you turn off all the safeties and try to run a reactor with a positive void coefficient in a haphazard manner? Never mind that no reactor currently in operation in the US has such a design. Never mind Chernobyl operators purposefully disregarded every rule in the book. Nah, let's blame new-kew-lar powar for it!

      Or perhaps you want to cite Fukushima? Yeah, the reactor built last century that survived an earthquake and tsunami that killed tens of thousands of people around it and was put in situations it was never designed to withstand in the first place. Yeah, let's use that as an example of how unsafe them nukes are! That'll show 'em your mastery of statistical analysis!

      And while you're at it, completely ignore the fact that Fukushima has not one single fatality attributable to any radioactive release from the plant despite what happened to it. Just kinda sweep that under the rug the same way you ignore the 15,894 people who were killed, the 6,156 injured, and the 2,546 people missing due to the quake and tsunami...none of which had anything to do with a meltdown.

      And will do it more often as they age.

      Again, a supposition unsupported by any facts. Reactors are routinely inspected and have licensed lifetimes. Their license to operate can and will be revoked if they're run haphazardly. They must renew the license periodically and have set lifetimes that can only be extended if safety checks show it to be safe to do so.

      But sure, let's just go with your idea and say they're gonna kill us all anyway. Probably spawn a wave of incredible hulks while they're at it. Or Godzilla.

      The model does not include the cost of the damage done by global warming.

      Perhaps because such quantification is impossible given the ridiculous number of variables involved. Nah, never mind that! That's just crazy talk!

      Or rather, it assigns that cost to renewables by failing to credit them for saving the Earth.

      "saving the Earth"??? Hyperbole much?

      The model does not consider the effect that radical energy use reductions would have on the overall cost.

      Nor does your pie-in-the-sky "idea" consider the radical effects on society and economies that "radical energy use reductions" would impose. Nah, let's forget even thinking about the consequences of what you propose. Just gloss right over that. Nothing to see here.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    10. Re: Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are those decommissioned plants "demolished" or are they still quite intat and requiring maintenance for the next century or more?

    11. Re: Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Although it doesn't qualify as a meltdown, there was also that incident in Japan where workers were processing nuclear fuel in a reactor and they went outrageously over the safety limit on the amount they were supposed to produce at once and got a critical mass. Also, since people have mentioned that people are in just and killed in building, installing and maintaining solar systems, wind turbines, etc, I should point out thathat there is nothing magical about nuclear that prevents people from being in just mining nuclear fuel (wich is also a very dirty industry), building and maintaining nuclear power plants, etc.

    12. Re:Externalized Costs by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      The lesson here is: US nuclear power plant construction companies suck. They've lost all of their expertise and can't find their asses with both hands and a GPS.

      If you want cheap power plants built on time, you should go to Rosatom or maybe to Areva in a pinch.

    13. Re:Externalized Costs by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      I agree, we dumped nuclear too soon. But there's still a problem with used nuclear fuel. We still don't know what to do with it. The decomissioned reactor at San Onofre, is burying their cooled rods in the gound at their site (in containers of course). Except that this is essentially a few steps away from the beach. What happens in a hundred years? 200? That's going to erode or be underwater, people will forget what's buried there, civilization might even have collapsed.

      The problem with nuclear is that it's infused with politics. Plants get built where they are because someone promised jobs to a congressman's district in exchange for votes, never mind that the site is on an earthquake fault. Asking for concrete and detailed plans for future maintenance gets answered with a few political donations. Over time the budgets go down, maintenance gets worse, there are fewer employees working longer shifts, and so forth. You want to store used fuel but it's a big political battle. Replacing outdated and unsafe technology is not allowed because so much money has already been sunk into it so it keeps running. Better plants don't get built because it costs so much money, and so much politics standing in the way that no one can really get an unbiased analysis.

      And negligance is commmon, natural disasters are common. Which means negligance coinciding with a natural distaster must be taken into account, as this happens very often. Just look at any major earthquake aftermath and you can see lots of damage that could have been mitigated.

      The important things you need with a nuclear plant that need solving. Some can be solved with newer technology maybe.
      - What to do with spent fuel - can you use it all up or do you have to store it someplace safe for all eternity?
      - Can you turn off the plant when it's no longer needed without this being a massive engineering effort? Can it be shut down in times of war, after a disaster, when demand goes down, when it is decomissioned?
      - make a long term plan (decades, centuries) for how to maintain and manage the plant.

    14. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Safety concerns associated with nuclear power generation are not all FUD. Of course of all the concerns possibly issued by all of the population, some concerns may be ridiculous. But the failure in the US to politically deal with the waste from nuclear power generation is a very real and serious concern.

      Risk is assessed not only by past record but also potential. The potential for solar to cause major problems because some workers MAY fall is essentially zero. There is no chance of significant societal disruption or significant cost. I would like to see if ANY significant injuries occurred from falling during pro solar installs based upon a credible source. Falling during work is successfully handled by procedure in industry at large. I doubt it suddenly becomes a problem with solar. Sounds like YOUR FUD.

      I reject your "sources" as none appeared to have any rigorous methodology.
      I reject such low figures for Nuclear as they obviously do not encompass the cost of Chernobyl, the safety costs of construction while including those costs for other generation dubiously and they are just obviously lowball massaged fakes.

      Risk assessment must include worst case scenarios. Nuclear undeniably has worst case scenarios that far exceed any other power generation. In addition the fact that nuclear waste lasts much longer than the current age of the world's most capable governments renders any notion that nuclear is an obvious safer power generation method not even remotely supportable. Having such a serious and long standing threat from nuclear waste combined with long term solutions that are less substantial than Tinkerbell at this point in time leads to the only plausible conclusion.

      You are an evangelist. You base your conclusions on what you wish was true rather than what is true. It is true that in the US we have not adequately produced a scheme to render nuclear waste safe. Given the longevity of that waste ANY plan is questionable. No other power generation method has the huge risk that Nuclear does IN FACT have. Coal has a large and present health risk but the cost of coal based generation seems to lead to a natural reduction of this capacity and its external costs. Jury is still out for Nat gas but there is no plausible scenario where the risks from nat gas would approach the risk from nuclear. Risks from wind power? Get real. Essentially zero. Same with solar.

      Get real.

    15. Re:Externalized Costs by pyrrho · · Score: 1

      if you use liquid fuels and the thorium cycle... the wastes only last ~300 years and also, many of them are useful.

      in fact, you can burn what is currently considered waste.

      --

      -pyrrho

    16. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You can actually burn almost all nuclear fission "spent" fuel in a breeder reactor. It's just not economical.

    17. Re: Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Be less hasty with your righteous anger. Past performance is a guide but not a reliable foolproof predictor of future performance.

      You guys almost lost Detroit.

      How much value do you place on Detroit?

    18. Re:Externalized Costs by Immerman · · Score: 2

      >What to do with spent fuel
      We solved that almost immediately, we just abandoned it in the face of more cost-effective options: reprocessing.

      Basically you have two kinds of "leftovers" from a reactor - unspent fuel (not appreciably radioactive) and fission byproducts (very radioactive). The beauty is that the byproducts, being very radioactive, will decay quite rapidly and mostly stop being dangerously radioactive within a few centuries. The problem is that they're all mixed up with the unspent fuel, which will continue fissioning in the presence of the radiation, producing new byproducts to keep the chain reaction going for many thousands of years.

      Reprocessing solves that by separating the fuel, which can be reused, from the byproducts, which can then be stored in a vault that only needs to contain things for centuries. Combine that with any of the many forms of mineralization / vitrification to dreamt up to physically stabilize the waste so that groundwater, etc. can't erode it away quickly, and you've got a recipe for realistically safe storage.

      The problem is that the early reprocessing plants were extremely hazardous (you are dealing with high-level nuclear waste after all), and the entire idea was mostly scrapped with the invention of much more cost-effective uranium mining, which made "fresh" uranium considerably cheaper than reprocessed. Of course, mining fresh uranium doesn't actually address the waste problem.

      There's also potential to make reactors that simply "burn" far more of their fuel in the first place - the more fuel gets consumed the less there is to prolong the radioactivity of unprocessed waste. A "traditional" reactor only consumes 5-10% of its fuel before the byproducts starve the reaction, some alternate designs can consume as much as 90% or more. The biggest problem is that the more efficient reactor designs are generally also considerably more conductive to producing and harvesting plutonium and other useful weapons-grade materials.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    19. Re:Externalized Costs by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Wow! And Japan had never experienced a nuclear meltdown prior to 2011.

      Brilliant logic there man.

      You might want to look into "Black Swans".

      You may not of heard but California has natural disasters...

      You appear to have the same problem as many people. Low risk is not NO risk.

      So you have to look at two factors:
      What's the risk of a nuclear meltdown (say currently about 1% (449 reactors-- 5 of them have had severe problems.) (but keep in mind that there have been 52 smaller accidents at nuclear plants).

      And how bad is an accident? Currently 4/5 polluted hundreds of square miles of land for generations and 1/5 (3 mile) were not too bad (close... but didn't turn out bad). 3/5 polluted thousands of square miles of ocean.

      It's not NIMBY when something 100 miles away can destroy all your property and put you in temporary housing for years. You just have to ask your self-- do you feel lucky? Will the wind be blowing towards you on that particular day?

      ---

      Your statement about California not having a meltdown seems so bad, I wonder if you are not really anti-nuclear.

      ---

      Couple other points...
      No place to store nuclear waste.
      Decomissioning costs are running *hundreds of millions* of dollars higher than estimated (for example $39 original estimate vs 640 million (+8 million a year "forever" to store the waste) for one plant under decomissioning now. And does the unexpected cost come out of corporate and executive pockets? Nope-- all the extra costs are being added to current electric bills. So consumers 30 years ago got cheap electricity, the companies made money, the executives made money-- and today's public gets to pay for it all.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    20. Re:Externalized Costs by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Aye, they are not economical nor are they safe, nor are they really proven on the scale needed. Plus they produce nuclear fuel so they'll need super high security (maybe put them in the middle of a u.s. military base.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    21. Re:Externalized Costs by BlueStrat · · Score: 1

      You can actually burn almost all nuclear fission "spent" fuel in a breeder reactor. It's just not economical.

      Only because of over-burdensome regulation driven by politics instead of science driving up costs. Politics is why we can't have nice things.

      Strat

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    22. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And this is a fine example of wankersim amongst anti-nuclear evangelicals:
      "But the failure in the US to politically deal with the waste from nuclear power generation is a very real and serious concern."

      Because, these are the same people who use propaganda and lawsuits to prevent the creation of a long-term storage facility

      Take your bs and shove it

    23. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That's an idiotic argument if I ever saw one, but hey, it's you so what's to expect.

      Here are the facts: It doesn't matter if it's once a year, twice per decade or three every century or whatever measure you care to apply. ONCE is too many.

      Nuclear power is inherently dangerous, extremely toxic and complex. You can design your power plants and all the procedures around it all you want and make any accidents very unlikely, but the systems will by necessity become not only prohibitively expensive but impossible to make secure. It's like a really complex piece of software, no matter how hard you try, there will always be bugs - and humans - and how they interact and the consequences for a "bug" or a "perfect storm" of bugs and/or mistakes in a nuclear system are impossible to overview. All we can say is that a) they will be far worse than if your shitty browser CTDs and b) we actually don't need that shit, no matter what you indoctrinated retards with blinkers the size of ocean liners think.

    24. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem is not just the probability of meltdown alone. Nuclear power is not financially viable. Building a safe plant is so expensive the companies make a decision not to go forward. Cost over runs during construction are killing many plants before they become operational.

    25. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How dangerous coal fired plants are does not matter. Nuclear plants can not and are not being built because of financial considerations.

    26. Re:Externalized Costs by ChumpusRex2003 · · Score: 1

      The other issue is that when serious nuclear accidents have occurred, there has often been overreaction by the authorities.

      This really started with the Chernobyl accident; a large area of Ukraine was evacuated and turned into an exclusion zone. That was a justifiable approach for about 30% of the region, but the majority of the region was not sufficiently contaminated that there was a meaningful public health hazard. Similarly, neighboring countries placed restrictions on land and livestock, where the justification was borderline, if valid at all. Several years before the UK government de-restricted Welsh lamb, the radiation hazard from eating that lamb was such that if you ate 1 lb of lamb per day indefinitely, the radiation burden would result in an estimated 15 minute reduction in life expectancy. That's a hazard similar to smoking 1 cigarette on one single occasion.

      The problem with these types of government response is that they are expensive, and they often disproportionately affect certain regions. Wealth and GDP are intimately associated with health outcomes (including life expectancy), and anything which reduces wealth is at risk of reducing health. In fact, by performing a regression of GDP vs life expectancy, you can obtain a completely objective coefficient for this to inform decisions. Looking at the Welsh hill farm example, the harm to health caused by economic damage by restrictions in land use, was multiple orders of magnitude greater than any credible estimate of harm from radioactive contamination.

      It has been a similar thing after the Fukushima accident. Other than for some land immediately in the vicinity of the plant, it is hard to justify the existence of any exclusion zone or any population evacuation. Estimates of radiation risk in even "heavily contaminated" parts of the exclusion zone are in the order of a reduction of population life expectancy of approximately 2-3 months. Compare this to other environmental risks - air pollution in Paris causes an estimated population life expectancy reduction of 9-12 months, purely due to particulate emissions. That's around 4x as toxic as the Fukushima exclusion zone, yet so far no one has seriously suggested evacuating Paris due to a public health emergency. However, tens of thousands of people were displaced from Fukushima, dozens dying in the process of evacuation, and thousands suffering serious mental illness as a result of the stress of losing everything, having been told that they have been poisoned, placed in unstable temporary accommodation and turned into outcasts by social stigma.

      The real question to ask is, is overzealous government reaction to an accident an integral part of the risks of nuclear power? The harm figures are dramatically different if you do include it.

    27. Re:Externalized Costs by jwhyche · · Score: 2

      They are economical and they are safe.

      The problem with nuclear power is hippies. Yup, hippies, you can blame it all the smelly hippies from the 1960s. Actually, if you take it to the extreme you can blame just about every problem we have today from world hunger to climate issues on a pack of smelly hippies.

      You see hippies started protesting nuclear weapons, which is good. But being the uneducated lot they are they didn't just stop there, they also protested peaceful development of nuclear power. They bitched about nuclear medicine, research, and every fucking thing that had anything to do with "nuclear" in the name.

      Did it stop nuclear weapons development? Fuck no. But it did grind everything else to a halt. And because of fucking hippies we are stuck with nuclear power plants designed in the '60 and built in the '70s. It is why there has been no new ones built in 40 years and why it is so expensive to build one.

      Hippies are the reason why we can't ship nuclear waste to be reprocessed and we still have coal plants polluting the planet. If the hippies had put down the bong and picked up a science book they might have solved the problem instead of causing it..

      But the hippies didn't just kill fission research, no they had to keep bitching about fusion too. Something that has nothing to do with splitting atom the smelly hippie couldn't keep his uneducated yap shut. So thanks to this line of bullshit all research in fusion was all so ground to a halt.

      So next time you see a hippie thank him for pollution, food shortages around the world, wars in middle east and africa, and plastics in the drinking water. Thank you smelly hippies.

      --
      I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
    28. Re:Externalized Costs by blindseer · · Score: 1

      You can actually burn almost all nuclear fission "spent" fuel in a breeder reactor. It's just not economical.

      Not economical? Compared to what? We can burn the stuff in a reactor to make energy (and then make money) or we can put it in a waste site and have to guard it from terrorists and curious children for centuries (which costs money).

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    29. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it's even completely unlikely with Thorium reactors! and we don't generate feed for the military industrial complex and their nukes.

    30. Re:Externalized Costs by blindseer · · Score: 1

      The biggest problem is that the more efficient reactor designs are generally also considerably more conductive to producing and harvesting plutonium and other useful weapons-grade materials.

      That is provably false. What makes plutonium valuable for creating weapons is the ability to make it with sufficient purity for a weapon in reactors designed for this purpose. There are reactor designs that prevent this from occurring. Part of what made Chernobyl such a dangerous reactor was that it was based on a "dual use" design, one that allowed it to be used for both generating electricity and for producing weapon grade material. These features to allow this had to be put in as part of the original design. To prevent this just don't have those features in the design.

      Another way to address this possibility of producing weapon grade material is in the choice of fuel. One possible fuel choice is to mix some thorium in the fuel and there will be enough "bad" plutonium isotopes produced as a fission byproduct to make it worthless for making weapons. Thorium would also add to the energy content of the fuel and potentially reduce it's costs to produce. Thorium would also make uranium worthless for weapons since the byproduct of U-234 would destroy it's value for weapons but still keep it valuable as a fuel.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    31. Re:Externalized Costs by blindseer · · Score: 1

      No place to store nuclear waste.

      We did have places to store the waste until the Democrats shut them down.

      the companies made money, the executives made money-- and today's public gets to pay for it all.

      Except that's a lie. All US reactors are required to pay into a fund for decommissioning. Sure the electricity users are paying the bill but the energy produced is so much cheaper than the alternatives that everyone still comes out ahead.

      What's the risk of a nuclear meltdown (say currently about 1% (449 reactors-- 5 of them have had severe problems.) (but keep in mind that there have been 52 smaller accidents at nuclear plants).

      Then build a reactor that cannot melt down. We know how to do that but the people that think nuclear power technology is stuck in 1975 will still protest the building of a new plant. Japan figured this out. They tried to shut down all their nuclear power plants but then electricity prices shot up and air quality went down. They decided the risks of another meltdown was worth restarting most of their nuclear power plants. The ones they didn't restart were so old and small that they should have been shut down a long time ago anyway. The reactors at Fukushima were scheduled to be retired until the tsunami hit, then they were forced to move up their schedule. Those reactors were older than those at Chernobyl. Had they not stopped building new reactors because of the NIMBY types then they would have had them shut down earlier because of known issues.

      The solution to bad nuclear power plants is not keeping them from being built, as that just forces people to keep them running. If we keep building them then the costs of new ones go down, as there would be more competition for reducing prices and improving safety. As of right now we only retire a nuclear power plant as a last resort because that reactor is very valuable and that land cannot be used for much once the reactor is gone. Do you know what an old reactor site is good for? Building a new reactor. To do that though idiots like you need to get out of the way so we can see these old reactors shut down so newer and safer ones can replace them.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    32. Re:Externalized Costs by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      But you're stuck with the first gen reactors. They cost so much to build that it is not desirable to dump them readily, and the huge cost also means there is less political appetite to create newer and better reactors.

    33. Re:Externalized Costs by blindseer · · Score: 1

      Cost over runs during construction are killing many plants before they become operational.

      Tell me, what is driving up these costs? I know what it is, a bunch of idiots that don't understand how a nuclear reactor works protesting it's construction and bogging them down with legal costs as they keep suing them over imagined safety violations.

      Another thing that these protestors complain about is the reactors attracting terrorists. There was one terrorist attack on a nuclear reactor as it was bombed. Who did the bombing? The very same people that complained of it attracting terrorists. I guess they couldn't find an actual terrorist to bomb the place so they had to become the terrorists.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    34. Re: Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Compare deaths from nuclear to constant deaths from solar (workers falling off roofs), wind (workers falling of turbines), hydroelectric (workers falling off dams, dams failing and wiping out entire towns), natural gas (workers dying in fires), coal (workers dying in fires AND dying in mines AND bystanders dying from lung disease), and you see that nuclear is far and away the safest energy source out there.

      That is a bad argument for nuclear and d you should feel bad for making it.

      If you count mines deaths and construction accidents for non-nuclear, you have to expand the same for nuclear.

         

    35. Re:Externalized Costs by blindseer · · Score: 1

      Nuclear power is inherently dangerous, extremely toxic and complex.

      As is every energy source we know of that's worth using. Nuclear power is already the safest energy source we have and we know how to make it even safer.

      You think solar power isn't dangerous and toxic? People do get injured and killed installing the collectors. It doesn't happen often but it does happen. They are toxic too. Have you seen what goes into making those solar PV cells? Those are some nasty chemicals.

      Hydro dams have been known to fail too. When they do it tends to create a lot of damage. Windmills are dangerous as well. Any building project has it's risks of death and injury. My college roommate was studying architecture and he told me about a lecture he had on how to compute the number of people that will be killed in a building project. We know these risks and we still build things, because leaving people homeless is a greater risk to life than building places for them to live in.

      As dangerous as nuclear power might be we do get a lot of energy from it. More than enough to make it safer than anything else based on the deaths per energy produced. People understand that making something absolutely safe is impossible. Which is why they don't make anything absolutely safe. They do the best they can to the point that the costs of managing a failure is below that of the costs to prevent the failure.

      There is a cost to using alternatives to nuclear power, as is there a cost to doing without that energy. As it is right now nuclear power is the best option we got.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    36. Re:Externalized Costs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah on your topic of naming MRI's used to be NMRI's and were changed due to public opinion about nuclear power.

    37. Re:Externalized Costs by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      No.

      Train wrecks and fuel spills and similar human carelessness are why we can't ship the fuel to be reprocessed.

      Pure callousness on the part of the nuclear industry is why we can't ship the fuel to be reprocessed.

      The nuclear industry lied their asses off about how safe and inexpensive nuclear power would be but in reality, with actual humans running the show it was not safe and it was not inexpensive.

      And after 30 years, even the concrete the reactors are built from becomes tons of radioactive waste making disposal much harder than they used to think.

      I agree that in theory we could do it safely. But only in theory. We know from experience now that it's not safe.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    38. Re:Externalized Costs by pots · · Score: 1

      It really just takes a natural disaster. Negligence happens on an ongoing basis, and is a particular problem with nuclear plants due to their enormous up-front cost.

      Also, for the NIMBY thing... Yucca Mountain is as much "in the middle of nowhere" as you can practically be, and it still has NIMBYs and they have been very successful in preventing its use. Also #2) if you read the article, one of the given reasons for needed non-renewable power sources is the lack of ability to transport power over long distances at low cost. If we could do that then we wouldn't need the nuke plant in the first place.

    39. Re:Externalized Costs by nasch · · Score: 1

      Governments don't do this for fun or for no reason. People are really really frightened of radiation, and not so much of smog. This is partly for good reason: there is no perceptible difference between no radiation at all and a lethal dose. I would guess the political price of a few people getting sick and blaming it on the government is greater than the political price of an unnecessary evacuation. And after all, that is what politicians care about.

    40. Re: Externalized Costs by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Train wrecks and fuel spills and similar human carelessness are why we can't ship the fuel to be reprocessed.

      Neither of those things on an issue. Look up "nuclear cask train" on YouTube and enjoy the video. Then go read up on the technology.

      Pure callousness on the part of the nuclear industry is why we can't ship the fuel to be reprocessed.

      So informative. Much wow.

      The nuclear industry lied their asses off about how safe and inexpensive nuclear power would be but in reality, with actual humans running the show it was not safe and it was not inexpensive.

      It's every bit as safe as they said it would be, and it's relatively inexpensive even with all the insane regulations and battles which have to be fought every time you want to build a new reactor in a modern nation. If we were serious about building a large number of new plants we could knock the costs way down. China is building them like it's going out of style, and their costs are far, far lower.

      And after 30 years, even the concrete the reactors are built from becomes tons of radioactive waste making disposal much harder than they used to think.

      Low level radiation of no concern to anyone. Bury it in the ground and leave it alone.

      I agree that in theory we could do it safely. But only in theory. We know from experience now that it's not safe.

      I agree that in theory you could be correct. But only in theory. We know from decades of experience that it's very safe.

    41. Re: Externalized Costs by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      That's an idiotic argument if I ever saw one, but hey, it's you so what's to expect.

      Here are the facts: It doesn't matter if it's once a year, twice per decade or three every century or whatever measure you care to apply. ONCE is too many.

      No, THAT is an idiotic argument. If you are talking about any type of accident and find yourself saying "once is too many", you need to stop, because you're being an idiot.

    42. Re:Externalized Costs by edgr · · Score: 1

      If we're discussing costs here, the thing is even the very rare nuclear accidents are incredibly expensive. Estimates of the cost of cleaning up Fukushima run between US$180 - US$600 billion.

      Estimating US$400 billion, and wikipedia's claim that about 2 PWh of nuclear energy is produced per year, we get a cost of $200/ MWh year, so substitute in how often you think it's reasonable to assume these things happen somewhere in the world (once every 30 years? Gives $6/MWh), and compare to the latest contracts being signed for dispatchable solar (solar with storage) costing less than $50/MWh. It's a significant proportion of the overall cost, not overwhelming, but should not be discounted. And solar costs are coming down fast.

      Cleanup costs:
      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-...
      https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/04/01/national/real-cost-fukushima-disaster-will-reach-¥70-trillion-triple-governments-estimate-think-tank/

      Contracts being signed around US$50/MWh:
      US$55/MWh in South Australia, including storage
      US$30/MWh in Arizona, not including storage

    43. Re:Externalized Costs by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Perhaps I'm misinformed, it's been over a a decade since I followed things closely, but my understanding is that while purpose-built plutonium-breeding reactors certainly have an edge, so long as you're actually producing appreciable quantities of plutonium at all it's a substantial danger, especially if it's primarily the isotopes you're interested in so that simple chemical separation is possible. That becomes an even worse problem if you're already engaging in any sort of waste reprocessing - then the dangerous part is already done.

      Meanwhile, any reactor that depends on choice of fuel to limit proliferation potential is already a lost cause - changing the fuel is comparatively easy, at least assuming you're talking about a flexible-fuel reactor rather than one specifically designed for your "safe" fuel.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    44. Re:Externalized Costs by blindseer · · Score: 1

      Perhaps I'm misinformed, it's been over a a decade since I followed things closely, but my understanding is that while purpose-built plutonium-breeding reactors certainly have an edge, so long as you're actually producing appreciable quantities of plutonium at all it's a substantial danger, especially if it's primarily the isotopes you're interested in so that simple chemical separation is possible. That becomes an even worse problem if you're already engaging in any sort of waste reprocessing - then the dangerous part is already done.

      The only isotope of plutonium that is valuable for weapons is Pu-239. All the other isotopes are either non-fissile or have such a short half life that they are problematic to handle. To make Pu-239 means putting U-238 in a reactor with something fissile, typically U-235, and letting it "cook" in the reactor for days to a few months. While the U-238 is being bombarded with neutrons it will capture some of them and become Pu-239. This newly produced Pu-239 that's in the reactor is now also exposed to that neutron bath and it can capture neutrons to become Pu-240, which is bad for making bombs, or it will fission, which is good for making energy. At the same time the U-235 that is in there is soaking up neutrons and undergoing fission but not every capture of a neutron results in fission, sometimes it also makes plutonium, an isotope lighter than Pu-239. If left in long enough there is enough Pu-239 eaten up by fission or captured a neutron to become Pu-240 that it is worthless for making a weapon.

      This time left in the reactor is important for making weapons and so dual use designs, like at Chernobyl, have an open top design that allows the removal of fuel while operating. A reactor designed for only making power will have a sealed reactor core where the fuel cannot be removed while operating. It may be possible to use a civil reactor to produce weapon grade material but it would have to be shutdown and cooled off every 90 days or so to swap out the fuel. This kind of operation will be obvious to those watching for weaponizing civil reactors and cannot be done secretly.

      The spent fuel from a civil power reactor, because fuel change cycles are years apart, will have only about 50% of the plutonium being Pu-239, the rest is mostly Pu-240. Separating this into weapon grade material by centrifuges would be prohibitively expensive and also obvious to anyone watching for weapons making activity. Fuel reprocessing does not involve the isotopic separation of the plutonium, only the chemical separation from the unused fuel and fission products. As this plutonium is of such low grade it will have to be mixed with fresh fuel, like uranium or thorium, to be used again in a reactor.

      Waste reprocessing is not inherently creating weapon grade material. There must also be the act of isotopic separation and/or reactor operation with short fuel cycles. Isotopic separation and short fuel cycles are often visible by observation from space by noticing heat generation and such.

      Meanwhile, any reactor that depends on choice of fuel to limit proliferation potential is already a lost cause - changing the fuel is comparatively easy, at least assuming you're talking about a flexible-fuel reactor rather than one specifically designed for your "safe" fuel.

      The use of limiting fuel choice is done all the time to prevent the production of weapon grade material. Any uranium that is enriched beyond 20% U-235 is considered evidence of weapon production. Treaties limit the production and trade of such material. The use of thorium as a fuel further limits the threat of producing weapon grade material since in a reactor that produces all kinds of other isotopes that mess with the production of weapon grade material. Thorium has already been tested as a fuel but we'll need more testing and reactors designed to use it as a fuel to make the most of it.

      Assuming one has a "flex-fuel" reactor that can burn thorium,

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  24. And not doing so increases the cost of damage. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So, yeah, please come back with a proper accounting not the smallest slice that allows you to worry about change, m'kay?

  25. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    EV Charging (for free or at low cost) at the workplace at its max capacity
    Reinject excess capacity (comparing to the travel you planned for the day after) of your EV in the grid from sunset to 9PM for extra bucks.
     

  26. In other news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It is "wastefully expensive and needlessly difficult" to build sewer systems, when people could simply defecate in their own backyard, or toss their droppings out the window. Why should we depart from behaviors that were sufficient for humanity for tens of thousands of years?

    1. Re:In other news... by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      they died young from diseases

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  27. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by swb · · Score: 1

    Once the grid gets stingy and/or unreliable, people/corps with resources will just start abandoning it in favor of their own local capacity. They won't be told they can't have air conditioning.

    "Managing the grid" will just boil down to middle class and lower classes being blacked out because they don't have their own power sources or can't afford super-peak rates.

    I predict the desire to enforce conservation (blackouts, brownouts, high cost rates) to meet renewable power goals will be a major political issue and probably a lot of backlash.

  28. 80% Is Pretty Darn Good by careysub · · Score: 1

    This is the study I have been looking/waiting for that gives a realistic assessment of what the future power grid for North America (and Eurasia) should look like.

    The summary cites the two different options for dealing with the intermittent nature of wind and solar -- power storage (which is the go-to assumption everyone makes as the only option), and having a low loss national power grid to distribute power efficiently, but inevitably it only cites the cost of the more expensive of the two -- power storage. The report itself gives an estimate for the national grid option and it is only $410 billion dollars vs >$1 trillion for the storage option. Over a 40 year period this amounts to an investment of $10 billion a year. Currently about $70 billion is invested annually in electricity production and transmission, so this is in line with current and projected levels of investment.

    It will be quite awhile before we have to really worry about going from 80% wind and solar to 100% - do we want to, is it worth the cost? In the mean time gas peaking plants can plug some of this gap. But nuclear energy at its current scale, about 20% of capacity, fits in very nicely. Currently licensed stations are looking at getting their licenses extended to 80 years, so they can cover this out to 2045 or so.

    --
    Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
  29. Re:Fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technolo by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

    Agreed, and even their premise that nuclear is carbon free is flawed. Nuclear plants take a ridiculous amount of concrete to make, and concrete production is one of our most CO2 intensive activities. Uranium mining, refining, and transport is also very carbon heavy. Net energy production compared to fossil fuel use? Definitely much less carbon intensive, but it's not zero by a long shot.

    --
    Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
  30. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    At 27C at night my AC would ne off, and most likely at 35C during daytime, too.
    Can't be so hard to have a building that stays around 27C - 30C without need for AC.

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  31. This smells like propaganda by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    This smells of propaganda. While the article makes much of the additional costs for power storage and load leveling it blithfully skates pass the cost overruns that have affected nuclear power plants which run into the billions of dollars, You can build a lot of batteries for that kind of money. Nor does it deal with the costs of spent fuel disposal, in part because the US has no process for disposing of spent fuel.

    Burning coal produces, in additional to carbon dioxide, noxious oxides, sulfates, particular matter, heavy metals (Mercury, lead, cadmium, and more) and soot, which is cancer-causing. Pollution control devices only reduce the amount of these being discharged, cost millions of dollars to install and millions more to maintain.

    Mandating 100% renewables by such and such a date may be optimistic but relying on coal and nukes is hazardous to our heaslth

    1. Re:This smells like propaganda by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "blithfully"?

      I suppository you mite have manufacturated a error their.

  32. Re:Fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technolo by thegarbz · · Score: 1

    Yes, you can make a zero emission coal or gas fired plant.

    Multiple companies have tried, and all have so far failed. Clean coal was pushed in Europe long before the orange monkey ran for president. Currently most of the projects are being sued by their respective states for reimbursement of the government incentives that often failed to produce even a single kg of sequestered carbon.

    Coal is dying, clean coal on the other hand has gone through multiple stillbirths and abortions.

  33. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At 27C at night my AC would ne off, and most likely at 35C during daytime, too.
    Can't be so hard to have a building that stays around 27C - 30C without need for AC.

    You'd die with the humidity there.

  34. It will make them cheaper by discowriter · · Score: 2

    It might be inconvenient, but it removes problems and gets the job done so that the technology is much cheaper much more quickly. I'm actually a little disappointed to read this on Slashdot without some acknowledgement that nuclear and fossil fuels, though currently used and useful, aren't really needed if we CAN get everything from renewable sources. It's as if the poster or author is saying that we shouldn't update to the latest computers or other technology when it's still cheaper and more convenient to use old technology, even if old technology is inconvenient and expensive longterm and switching to the latest technology will introduce far greater efficiencies that everyone will be ready to enjoy. It's not like everyone is trying to use the latest smartphone here. It's more like they're switching from alkaline batteries to lithium. Or nuclear and fossil fuels to wind and solar. THAT'S WHY. And while old technologies SHOULD be used where needed and practical, switching to renewables should DEFINITELY be encouraged and even demanded where the pain of switching is WORTH IT.

  35. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by Barsteward · · Score: 1

    just how well are your properties insulated? a well insulated property shouldn't have much temperature fluctuation whether that be heat or cold.

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  36. Re:Fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technolo by upl8n87447 · · Score: 1

    They'll be piloting a zero CO2 emission natural gas plant that has the potential to be cost comparative to other fossil fuel plants. The tech may also be usable for coal. Look into Net Power and the Allam cycle. Not proven yet, but could be a big deal if it works. It effectively produces, heats, and pressurizes CO2 as it burns fuel/oxygen, then uses the heated CO2 to turn the turbine. This instead of heating water and using the steam to turn the turbine. Since the CO2 is already at high pressure, the excess CO2 in the system can be captured, transported, and sequestered. The only thing vented is water vapor.

    The real question is where the CO2 would be sequestered to... and of course whether the tech actually works without the heated / pressurized CO2 corroding / destroying the machinery.

  37. It worth it to pay the premium by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The reduced footprint appears to me to be worth it.

  38. Two problems with that by rsilvergun · · Score: 4, Informative

    a. Privatization in America is pretty much inevitable because Americans do not trust government. It's cultural. It's hammered into you when you're young and impressionable.

    b. Nuclear disasters are much, much worse and they affect everyone around for miles, not just the people in the immediate vicinity of the disaster.

    There's a reason NIMBYism exists. It's irrational rationality. Running an unsafe nuclear power plant because you don't like paying taxes and don't trust the government is irrational. But if you've already accepted that level of irrationality then the next rational thing to do is not run the plant in the first place.

    It's a catch 22 in the literal sense of the word. You'd have to be crazy to do it but you'd have to be crazy to not do it.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:Two problems with that by werepants · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's irrational rationality. Running an unsafe nuclear power plant because you don't like paying taxes and don't trust the government is irrational. But if you've already accepted that level of irrationality then the next rational thing to do is not run the plant in the first place.

      If I understand what you're saying, you're suggesting that nuclear power plants will be privatized, and therefore unsafe? Maybe you are suggesting this because of what happened with Fukushima?

      The thing is, a majority of nuclear power plants in the U.S. are already privatized (but heavily regulated). That exact arrangement has provided the extraordinary safety record that we observe from nuclear energy. Why would you think things would be any different in the future? There's no movement I'm aware of to abandon those proven safety regulations, and so the most reasonable expectation is that nuclear energy will continue to demonstrate the same, exceptional level of safety and reliability that it always has.

    2. Re:Two problems with that by Freischutz · · Score: 1

      It's irrational rationality. Running an unsafe nuclear power plant because you don't like paying taxes and don't trust the government is irrational. But if you've already accepted that level of irrationality then the next rational thing to do is not run the plant in the first place.

      If I understand what you're saying, you're suggesting that nuclear power plants will be privatized, and therefore unsafe? Maybe you are suggesting this because of what happened with Fukushima?

      The thing is, a majority of nuclear power plants in the U.S. are already privatized (but heavily regulated). That exact arrangement has provided the extraordinary safety record that we observe from nuclear energy. Why would you think things would be any different in the future? There's no movement I'm aware of to abandon those proven safety regulations, and so the most reasonable expectation is that nuclear energy will continue to demonstrate the same, exceptional level of safety and reliability that it always has.

      Why would we think things would be any different in the future? Because whenever the damn Republicans start handing out deregulation cool-aid it has a tendency to end badly. It just plain scares me to think of what may happen if the Republican deregulation brigade ever ever decides to aggressively deregulate the energy industry with the usual set of dumb ideas like: "you can't pass a new a regulation unless you abolish three old ones", and then decide this should apply to nuclear safety regulations as well because the nuclear safety regulations are a totally unnecessary bureaucratic abomination that only 'stifle the economy and hinder growth'.

    3. Re:Two problems with that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What would happen? Well, for starters, we could get 21st century control systems to replace vacuum tubes, so reliability of the control and safety systems will improve significantly. What else? Well, we could probably ditch 3 years of lawsuits designed to triple the cost of nuclear construction. That would be good, as nuclear can casually replace coal and natural gas if we get a sane judicial environment. What other down sides? Let's see. We could probably get transmission lines built without a few years of delay, which would enable EVs replacing gasoline cars. Currently, there's not a prayer of mass adoption, as the electrical grid will not be capable of recharging that many EVs.

      All told, this sounds horrible.

    4. Re:Two problems with that by werepants · · Score: 2

      Why would we think things would be any different in the future? Because whenever the damn Republicans start handing out deregulation cool-aid it has a tendency to end badly.

      These are general fears based on an overall Republican ideology, but to be honest all signs suggest that their current political dominance will be very short-lived, and they have made no gestures whatsoever towards removing nuclear safety regulations. Point to something specific that you're concerned about, otherwise it just seems like you are flailing about to try to make this a partisan thing when it really isn't.

      I dislike Trump as much as the next guy, but so far his administration has demonstrated pretty clearly that checks and balances are alive and well, and there's no reason at all to think that there will be any impact whatsoever on something as uncontroversial and politically unsexy as nuclear power plant safety.

    5. Re: Two problems with that by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      What would happen? Well, for starters, we could get 21st century control systems to replace vacuum tubes, so reliability of the control and safety systems will improve significantly.

      Any gains in safety due to advances in equipment will likely be offset by the fact that it will be run not by 20th Century engineers but 21st Century morons. Just saying.

    6. Re:Two problems with that by darth.hunterix · · Score: 2

      Why WOULD you trust the government? No matter where are you from and what are your political affiliation, I sure there was at least one government in your country that you hated (or hate right now).

      Assuming you're an American, answer me this: do you honestly believe ALL those individuals are trustworthy?
      1. Bill Clinton
      2. George Bush Jr.
      3. Barack Obama
      4. Donald J. Trump

      Because at some point each of them was (or is, in case of Trump) the government, which, in your opinion, we should trust. But how can we trust untrustworthy people?

      Now, I am not an American, and where I live we are all taught from preschool to implicitly trust the government. Trust me, you really want some healthy American scepticism toward your elected official rather than what I have to deal with on daily basis. I have met several people who couldn't grasp the very concept of a "wrong law", "unjust law' or that a bureaucrat could possibly made a mistake.

      --
      What is best in life? Hot water, good dentishtry and shoft lavatory paper.
    7. Re: Two problems with that by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Nah, man, we're not letting you anywhere near the controls.

  39. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

    Not at all; you just need to build a thermal mass during the daylight hours and discharge it at night. It can be passive like a stone fireplace and floor, or an active system such as an ice tank. Your primary obstacles are humidity control and solar heat gain, which can generally be done with a separate dehumidifier (assuming you are using radiant surfaces), and a proper radiant barrier and overhangs.

    You can also gain thermal efficiency by using a ground-source heat pump to provide the cooling, so you don't get as much of a penalty running during maximum outside temperature. If you use enough hot water, a heat pump hot water heater can help out on the dehumidification too.

  40. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 1

    There is an economic benefit to being connected to the grid-- most of the time. It gives you a marketplace to sell your excess capacity, and a buffer for instantaneous peaks.

    While I am not a fan of real-time pricing, it can effectively compensate or incentivize good behavior.

    Pretend a company could year-round exactly match their load to the real-time output of their solar panels. That means they need to have more people working in the summer than winter, and need to operate 365 days per year-- with much shorter hours in the summer. But, since they likely don't want to schedule people around cloud cover they are going to need some battery storage. Now they need excess PV to cover the charging energy for that battery... but the battery is only needed on cloudy days! Well, they now have an opportunity to re-sell capacity at night when other people need the capacity-- provide the day was not cloudy.

    Economically, you end up having everyone with some battery storage, but supporting different needs. I might have enough to run the fridge and water heater for a day and a half, while my neighbor sizes theirs to run the air conditioning for a day as well. These different needs (and means) gives the tools needed for a grid with ~99% availability. To go from 99% to 99.95% availability, you are going to need to add in geographic diversity and diversity in power sources (wind). If you want more than that (economically), you likely need to add in natural gas plants.

    The natural gas plants will likely end up providing 5-10% of total annual energy.

  41. nuclear energy by pyrrho · · Score: 2

    nuclear is safer than coal. there is more energy in the radioactivity of coal ash than was gotten by burning the coal...

    nuclear. modern reactors could burn the current "waste" from which only 10% of the energy has been extracted.

    the lighter radioactive products of alternate designs besides the one from the navy currently used are shorter lived and useful in medicine and other applications.

    nuclear.

    --

    -pyrrho

  42. Let me guess... by SuperDre · · Score: 1

    I think I know who funded this research/article........

  43. Re:Fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technolo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This article puts resource use into perspective, and provides hard data. Your assertions about nuclear are very wrong. The only source that uses less material is gas turbines, and only if the fuel is ignored. Nuclear fuel is a million times more energy dense than fossil fuel, so the cost and mining impact are virtually nil, especially with thorium which is a byproduct of rare-earth mining.

    A picture of a nuclear plant with its large containment structure and cooling towers may give the impression that it uses a lot of concrete, but the plants produce enormous amounts of energy 24/7. For the amount generated, the material used is much smaller than any of wind, solar, hydro, or geothermal.

    Moreover, nuclear still has substantial room for improvement. The highly pressurized water coolant used in conventional reactors is largely responsible for their size and cost. The reactors must be made as heavy pressure vessels and the containment allow for roughly 1000x the volume in the event that pressure is lost and the water flashes to steam. Molten salt reactors have neither water or high pressure, allowing inexpensive components and tight-fitting containment. This will drastically reduce site work, easing construction costs and allowing factory manufacture.

  44. If you think there's no movement to abandon by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    safety regulations you're not paying very much attention. There's been widespread movements to eliminate regulations in all levels of government. I think we've been lucky that they haven't gotten that far yet. A lot of regulations come down from the EPA. Bush Jr was too busy with wars and Clinton/Obama were both the sorts not to allow it. But this newest administration has literally put someone in charge who has questioned whether the EPA should exist at all.

    As the economy gets worse the pressure to cut costs will to. Meanwhile folks will turn to the kind of politicians that promise them quick answers and easy fixes. And I don't see our economy doing anything but getting worse.

    Bottom line, I don't trust Americans. Make nuke plants cheaper to run safely than not or I'll oppose them. As mentioned I'm well aware this isn't rational behavior. But that's the point. None of this is rational. If human beings were rational we'd stop making tanks and build solar farms & desalination plants instead.

    --
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    1. Re:If you think there's no movement to abandon by werepants · · Score: 2

      As mentioned I'm well aware this isn't rational behavior. But that's the point. None of this is rational. If human beings were rational we'd stop making tanks and build solar farms & desalination plants instead.

      Can I just say, as someone who is generally allied with liberals, that this kind of shit is why you guys get a bad rap? Your argument is LITERALLY: "People are doing irrational things, so I will embrace my own variety of irrationality."

      To paraphrase: A stupidity for a stupidity makes the whole world stupid. This is the postmodernist trash-thought that has systematically rotted (some pieces of) academia and totally eaten away at the soul of America. Demand EVIDENCE! Go to the data FIRST, BEFORE you make your opinions. Truth DOES exist in the world, and reality does not bend to our political whims. Seek out opportunities to PROVE YOURSELF WRONG. We need to appreciate the complexity of policy, and seek to understand and react appropriately, rather than just impulsively pushing stuff that feels good.

      At a time when the GOP is going Full Retard, the left has an opportunity to be the adults in the room, and advocate evidence-driven policy based on cold, hard facts. But we're all doomed if the Democrats try to beat the GOP at the stupidity game.

  45. What signs are that? by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    They still own the State Legislatures, local offices and all branches of government. There's a lot of talk of a 'blue wave' but with few exceptions they're still winning most of their elections. More importantly they own the main stream media, since they're completely pro-corporate (as opposed to the Dems, which are only pro-corporate in the corporate wing of the party). Hell, the Dems big victory was winning one extra state legislature seat so the Republicans couldn't call a Constitutional convention.

    Also, even if the Rs lose a bit they're mostly losing to those right wing 'corporate' democrats who vote exactly the same as Republicans except on social issues.

    If somebody like Bernie Sanders or Liz Warren wins the Whitehouse we'll talk.

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    1. Re:What signs are that? by nasch · · Score: 1

      It's kind of amusing how so many people think the left own the mainstream media, and others believe just as fervently that it's the right.

    2. Re: What signs are that? by c6gunner · · Score: 2

      It's kind of amusing how so many people think the left own the mainstream media, and others believe just as fervently that it's the right.

      It's pretty obvious that the large media outlets tend to be run by people who are left of center. Even just taking population statistics into account, most of them are based out of large cities, and large cities contain populations which are more left-leaning than the nation as a whole. Ergo, unless the outlet is intentionally looking to hire conservatives (fox news), or unless some other factor results in conservatives disproportionally getting those jobs, the networks are going to end up being managed and staffed by people who are further left than the national average.

      News networks also tend to hire people who have some type of university education (usually in "soft" fields) which, again, is going to select for left-leaning people.

      Those who think the media is "controlled by the right" are so far on the fringes of the left wing that, to them, even Bill Clinton looks like a right-wing white supremacist. It's a similar situation with those on the far-right who think the media is some communist plot to take over America. In reality most of the large outlets end up being slightly left of centre.

    3. Re: What signs are that? by aquacrayfish · · Score: 1

      Funny how the biggest company and the one getting ready for a huge merger is VERY VERY much right-wing. Maybe there are more left of center, but it's pretty clear where the most influential ones are.

  46. Re:Fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technolo by blindseer · · Score: 2

    Definitely much less carbon intensive, but it's not zero by a long shot.

    Nuclear power is as close to zero emissions as solar, wind, and hydro.

    Nuclear: 28 tonnes CO2/GWh
    Wind: 26
    Hydro: 26
    Solar PV: 85

    I'm not a fan of solar PV because it produces three times the CO2 per energy produced than wind, hydro, or nuclear. Solar is also expensive, and unreliable. Still far better than natural gas at 500 tonnes of CO2/GWh, or coal which can vary from 700 to over 1000 depending on the coal quality and the plant efficiency. Using solar when better options exist is nonsensical.

    I see nothing wrong with the increasing use of natural gas because it cuts CO2 output in half from coal, it's cheap, it's reliable, and it's plentiful. Solar is not cheap, it's not reliable, and in many places not so plentiful. If we are going to go through the expense of reducing our CO2 output beyond that of natural gas then the smart money is on wind and nuclear. We're out of rivers to dam up so hydro is not really an option for any significant growth. Wind is not particularly reliable but it is cheap, or at least cheaper than solar and about the same price as nuclear and natural gas. I'll hear complaints on how nuclear is so expensive but it's half the price of solar for the same energy. If you live in a place that is lacking in sunshine then the price difference gets much larger. I'm sure there are places where solar is cheaper than nuclear, in which case solar might make sense, so long as there is sufficient wind, hydro, and natural gas to make up for when the sun doesn't shine.

    Oh, but solar will get cheaper, you say? When it gets cheaper than nuclear then I'll change my tune. Until then we should invest in nuclear. Also, it's quite possible nuclear could get cheaper too. This is a moving target, and now that we've actually started building new nuclear plants I do expect nuclear to get cheaper.

    Anyone want to complain about the safety of nuclear power? Nuclear power is ten times safer than solar power, based on deaths per energy produced. Go look it up. Yes, this does include the deaths from the meltdowns at Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island. Nuclear power is also safer than wind but by a smaller margin.

    --
    I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  47. Good deal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Let them approach their public service commissions and hike the rates to offset the costs. The low imcome folks can get hit with high rates too.

    Having worked in a credit group, there will be even more requests for bill extensions.

  48. Re:Moscow Donald is powered 100% by Russia's Gov. by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

    It would appear that the best way to ignore putin's news zombies is not to react, but to ask a question about it. But has anyone ever considered that maybe these red zombies have drank their own cool aide?

  49. NEWSFLASH: Lynnwood is full of shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lynnwood liar at it again.
    It's fossil fuels that are subsidised 7 times as much. Did you have trouble reading the graph...
    Your friends at the EIA tell us that renewables are 15% and coal+gas is 64%. How is that 15x? (even ignoring the fact they only count utility solar and not non utility production.
    You're as full of shit as ever.

  50. It does not matter by polyp2000 · · Score: 1

    The damage to the planet through the use of fossil fuels and having to deal with its repercussions far outweighs the cost of switching to renewables.

    --
    Electronic Music Made Using Linux http://soundcloud.com/polyp
  51. Tell that to Japan and Russia by computerchimp · · Score: 1

    People are stupid so slowing down the proliferation of nuclear so people can learn from others lack of foresight was a good thing.
    How many people did bad things with nuclear plants? A lot.
    Don't put it all on Greenpeace. Put it on lack of oversight and careless people that caused Greenpeace to be fearful.

  52. So bad for capitalism and good for the earth by computerchimp · · Score: 1

    I am all for the earth

  53. Re:Depends on what you can do with the demand curv by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 1

    A/C is needed at night, at least occasionally, as far north as Cleveland, Chicago, or New York. Mainly due to humidity. 30C is bearable without humidity, but add in the humidity and it becomes nearly impossible to sleep.

  54. Irrelevant by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

    Anyone check out the journal?
    No citation of accredited academic backing, nor indication of where / who publishes.
    List of where cited includes trade magazines in fossil fuel energy and the "Journal" itself
    Mmm. Sounds like Heartland Institute again!

  55. Worry about the storage bridge when we reach it by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

    So far, no place in the US has reached the point that this article talks about. (Some other countries have.) By the time we do we may have more cost effective power storage systems available.

  56. This confuses me by Manqueman · · Score: 1

    The thesis is that in fracture or new solutions for filling the gap are expensive. But since the backup is nearly always in place -- the power grid from which renewable users are "escaping", why is there much of a problem? And who's actually behind the study?

  57. Does not exist by sjbe · · Score: 1

    True, but since it is only needed to cover that last 20%, when we are already have 80% wind and solar, it is not needed now.

    Not needed now? It certainly is needed right now but that's irrelevant because it's NOT POSSIBLE. If it were available it would be needed immediately but there is no such technology in existence nor any reasonable near term prospect of it being developed. Companies that produce carbon have no incentive to work on the problem and there is no profit in it for anyone else. Carbon capture/sequestration is a bogus marketing term used by the fossil fuel industry to try to prevent regulation and taxation of the pollution they cause.

    It is normal for a technology that is not yet needed not to be already deployed.

    There is NO SUCH THING as carbon capture to deploy. You cannot deploy something that does not exist.