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Google Is Training Machines To Predict When a Patient Will Die (bloomberg.com)
A newly developed tool by Google can forecast a host of patient outcomes, including how long people may stay in hospitals, their odds of re-admission and chances they will soon die. Google documented some of this tool's abilities in May; in one instance, Google's tool estimated, by taking 175,639 data points into consideration, that a particular patient's odds at dying during her stay at the hospital was 19.9 percent, up from 9.3 percent that the hospital's computers had estimated. Now Bloomberg reports what Google intends to do with this new tool next. From the report: Google's next step is moving this predictive system into clinics, AI chief Jeff Dean told Bloomberg News in May. Dean's health research unit -- sometimes referred to as Medical Brain -- is working on a slew of AI tools that can predict symptoms and disease with a level of accuracy that is being met with hope as well as alarm. Inside the company, there's a lot of excitement about the initiative.
"They've finally found a new application for AI that has commercial promise," one Googler says. Since Alphabet's Google declared itself an "AI-first" company in 2016, much of its work in this area has gone to improve existing internet services. The advances coming from the Medical Brain team give Google the chance to break into a brand new market -- something co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have tried over and over again. Software in health care is largely coded by hand these days. In contrast, Google's approach, where machines learn to parse data on their own, "can just leapfrog everything else," said Vik Bajaj, a former executive at Verily, an Alphabet health-care arm, and managing director of investment firm Foresite Capital. "They understand what problems are worth solving," he said. "They've now done enough small experiments to know exactly what the fruitful directions are." The report adds that, among other things, Google's tool has the ability to sift through notes buried in PDFs or scribbled on old charts.
"They've finally found a new application for AI that has commercial promise," one Googler says. Since Alphabet's Google declared itself an "AI-first" company in 2016, much of its work in this area has gone to improve existing internet services. The advances coming from the Medical Brain team give Google the chance to break into a brand new market -- something co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have tried over and over again. Software in health care is largely coded by hand these days. In contrast, Google's approach, where machines learn to parse data on their own, "can just leapfrog everything else," said Vik Bajaj, a former executive at Verily, an Alphabet health-care arm, and managing director of investment firm Foresite Capital. "They understand what problems are worth solving," he said. "They've now done enough small experiments to know exactly what the fruitful directions are." The report adds that, among other things, Google's tool has the ability to sift through notes buried in PDFs or scribbled on old charts.
I think some hospital/clinic waiting rooms already use this technology.
while patient.isnt_quite_dead():
let_them_wait()
Google - don't settle for being merely evil: predict when someone will die and milk it for every penny you can!
Google fixes false positive rate of patient death predictor machines by training another machine to kill patients predicted to die.
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
And warn me in time to make another copy of that hard drive before it fails, but theyre going to predict my own death. Fuck those lying futurist assholes.
This is part of BigBrother's Total Surveillance package Google is trying to become by 2030. Fuck all those assholes.
We will now adjust your lifespan to our predictions. Our planning depends on it!
Google issues the "Kill Command" when you have out lived your usefulness.
It is in the Terms Of Service when you started using Google, didn't you read it?
Google's tool has the ability to sift through notes buried in PDFs or scribbled on old charts.
To hell with this death predictor... Sell the product that can read doctors' handwriting!!!
General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
It can also predict WHERE someone will die, in the case of traitor Drumpf
Conservatives are so concerned about outlawing abortion because without babies, how can you separate children from their parents and put them in cages? The cognitive dissonance stunning here.
All perps that get arrested get separated from their families.
That is why you go to the actual border rather than trying to sneak across the middle of the dessert.
It's funny how none of you screeching virtue signallers have stopped to consider the implications of dragging a 2 year old across the Arizona desert in summer.
A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
I remember that some time ago google motto was "Don't be evil" It is amazing how little time it took to reverse direction completely.
Still, Volchenboum believes these algorithms could save lives and money
"Still, Volchenboum believes these algorithms could save money. "
FTFA.
Here's the problem: how does one avoid a bad feedback loop? i.e. Computer predicts patient is likely to die, so doctors spend less time attempting to work the problem and/or shift the patient into a palliative care pathway. By predicting that a patient is likely to die, the computer will have made that patient EVEN MORE likely to die.
Which do you value more?
-- Dr Google.
If we can determine the best time to cut-off care then we can save most of what is spent. Medicare published that 28% of total life-time costs for care occur within the last six months of life. That takes money from people that could be helped.
So why DO you think they're running for their lives with children in tow through the desert, hmm? Because they're hardened terrorists? You're a fucking moron. They're SEEKING ASYLUM, idiot.
Or, we have considered it, and concluded that clearly these people think the risk is outweighed by the rewards because what they face at home is far worse.
From people dying in the Mediterranean fleeing wars, or people crossing the desert ... these people haven't just said "oh, fuck it, I'm bored, let's take a dangerous journey for the hell of it", they've pretty much said "anything has to be better than dying for certain here". What they're running from is terrible, and they hope to come out the other side with less terrible.
But, hey, apparently the bible says being an asshole and incarcerating children separate from their parents is god's will. Nothing says you and your god are fucking assholes that something like that. If your god advocates this ... your god is a douchebag, and so are you unless you can prove god personally gave you that little tidbit of information.
And, once again, the US has a retard as Attorney General.
The DoD is also into predicting when their patients will die, and into making money in the process.
Moderators train ACs to predict when Netcraft will die.
He's not a retard, he's a cowardly pseudo-conservative NAZI. Trump was elected because the racist scumbags in the GOP out-shouted the relatively nominal GOP cowards of yesteryear.
just a few points to your false commentary
1. it is a misdemeanor to be in the US without documentation
2. coming into the country before turning yourself over to authorities is common practice when seeking asylum
3. Sure, Arizona in the summer, when crossing between Yuma and Ajo, is dangerous, but this policy has only been in effect in the Spring and almost all of the detentions are occurring in populated areas NOT between Ajo and Yuma.
4. These sort of enforcement policies will, in fact, force people to try and cross in remote and dangerous areas, resulting in more deaths
just sayin
And, once again, the US has a retard as Attorney General.
Janet "set fire to women and children, and capture illegal Cuban children with machine guns" Reno is dead and hasn't been AG for years.
Ah, to be young, stupid, and able to pretend far worse didn't happen just a few years ago when an actual sexual predator/rapist was in the White House.
And our healthcare ai start up that they hawked for several years died, and one executive went on to work for Verily on this exact thing.
Can google executives at verily go to jail for 10 years now?
The stock of the startup that was sacrificed so someone could get a cool job at google is worth jack and squat now, and the start-up is dead, but Google seems to be doing pretty cool things (like securing the theft of more IP they didn't originate).
Seriously, do I have to go get an attorney?
If I don't, they just get away with it.
"The Google AI reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
I have. It takes some real desperation to make that happen. The only way to make that worse is to seperate said 2 year old from it's parents and lock it away in what amounts to a refurbished dog pen as if the 2 year old is even capable of criminal culpability. Even Trump recognized that that was sufficiently repugnant that he'd better try to blame someone else for it.
Oddly, you simultaneously cheer for the action and Trump who now says the action is wrong.You also seem to believe what Trump says, but stand against the people Trump says are responsable for the action you applaud.
Orwell was right about Doublethink, but wrong about who would institute it.
Offering funeral home and cemetery ads based on anticipated immediacy
>They're SEEKING ASYLUM, idiot.
The vast majority of illegal immigrants coming into this country are NOT political asylum seekers or refugees, you moron. They're economic migrants.
This could be used for good purposes and bad. We know which most corporate financials would choose.
Greater than 50% chance of dying in hospital, time to become an outpatient. The good, perhaps your chances of dying reduce once you leave, hospital that is :)
And insurance policies that have a clause that states if your chance of dying while in hospital is greater than 50% then there's no cover for treatments only death. The good, perhaps the cost of the cover goes down.
When shit hits the fan get some of these https://youtu.be/pY-GncsZ-UE
Trump RAPED his ex-wife, if you learn how to read moronic traitor. But he'll get his in FEDERAL PRISON, lol.
Yup, automatically throw that patient into palliative care and let them die.
Or maybe how for-profit hospitals will turn patients away because they don’t want to wreck their stats?
Economic migrants commit crimes FAR LESS THAN THE US NATIONAL AVERAGE, MORON. Trump is a LYING FAGGOT who will die in US FEDERAL PRISON. HE is guilty of CRIMES, not people seeking life in the USA.
Every god damn day in the tech press - "X does Y with machine learning".
X= Google, Microsoft or Facebook
Y = A problem that has been around for 20 years and has already had machine learning applied to it for 15 years
All because of clueless "IT expert" tech reporters breathlessly pumping out clickbait on that new whiz bang AI stuff that's solving the world's problems.
Algorithm: At an arbitrary chance of dying, withhold or delay insurance approval of a select (expensive) set of treatments. Business Rationale: 90% of an average person's lifetime medical costs are in the last year of life. Of that figure, another 90% of the costs are in the last 3 months of life. Optimizing the cutoff for medical treatment will maximum profits.
As clapper said, other governments have separated children from parents, Nazi Germany did this with the Jews as an example. Now is that the reflection you want in the mirror?
The vast majority may not commit crimes, but we still have a border and still have rules passed by Congress on who can and cannot cross and for how long they may stay. Enforcing the law is not a crime.
Without borders, you cease to have a country.
Get a room you two.
Orwell was right about Doublethink, but wrong about who would institute it.
He was right. Read the book more carefully. It describes Trump and his ilk perfectly.
don't help this guy, ai said that he will die anyway. don't waste resources... hitler would be proud.
They decide which people get insurance, and how good the coverage is.
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
Monty Python saw this coming
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
(File this comment under T for Tasteless jokes that you don't want to repeat if you want to be well liked, for future reference)
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
You talking about my nigga bill?
You are a cold hearted bastard and I hope the government takes your children away.
I've always wanted a machine to stand over me and announce when I'll die in a robotic voice. Does it have robotic arms to hold a pillow over my mouth if it predicts wrong?
Our hospital has a betting pool that fairly accurately anticipates the time of death for a patient. Some of us are more accurate than others, of course, and make more money in the process. But it's all in good fun and we all get better in our predictions. For my part, I've won three times in three months, and overall that means I've won slightly more than I bet. If you're expecting to die, I hope you visit our hospital. You are welcome to bet along with us!
...omphaloskepsis often...
i bet they'll spend billions for this, all the while a cat is doing that job right now for a piece of tuna.
Please do convey to us the transcripts of the last several dozen immigrants you've personally interviewed in your efforts to uncover the reasons they had for taking such a risk and why they feel they had no other choices, it'll be very enlightening.
..what's that, you say? You've never spoken to any of these would-be immigrants, seeking refuge from whatever situation drove them from their homes? You're just speaking from 2nd/3rd/4th...Nth-hand accounts? Interesting.
Are you a parent, sir? Please ask your wife how she feels about this 'policy' from the current administration. I think we'll find her words to be very enlightening, and perhaps you will (should?) too.
Jeff Sessions is a Dominionist and acts like a Third Reich-era Nazi; he's a monster. Law without regard for mercy is not Justice.
for improved accuracy of predictions.
Also great for capacity optimization: "let's bury this one and give her bed to President Trump. Google thinks she'll be dead before she suffocates."
0bama did it, too. I don't remember you complaining back then.
https://lawandcrime.com/immigration/obamas-immigration-agencies-separated-children-from-their-families-too-2/
Agreed. His boss should fire him. I understand he is familiar with that procedure.
The only way Trump will fire Sessions is if Sessions fails to recite the Loyalty to Trump Oath daily, as Trump requires. It'll take Congress and/or the Judicial branch pulling Sessions up short before this will change. FFS even Bush's wife came out in the news condemning this. It's a sad sign of the times when everyone with a lick of sense are looking back nostalgicaly at the Bush era.
Except 2/3rds of republicans/NeoNazis support the policy. They should dump the elephant and bring back the swastika. Accuracy.
They don't represent everyone in the country though, and people are starting to get outraged about this as more and more of it hits the news. What they're doing to these people and their kids goes against what this country is about.
"where machines learn to parse data on their own" --- where did this assertion come from? I don't see it mentioned in the original article, nor is it clear how this could possibly work.
Sadly, I suspect you are right. I recognize that Trump finally saying the child separation is wrong is just empty words flying out of his mouth. It'll take a lot more pressure to get him to throw Sessions under the bus.
Live at Google, work at Google, die at Google...give yourself to Google...give your soul to Google...
No Dr. McCoy beat google to it. The trick is not to wear a red shirt when the google AI comes around
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
The Nazi party was only about 20%. I'm waiting for Sessions to turn off the A/C in South Texas to see how many kids die in the ovens. I imagine no one in the current majority party of congress will give a crap.
I think that pretty much covers it. They have jumped over all the sharks and have started in on land animals and are jumping cows. The cows are smarter than their engineers and scientists.
I wonder how they feel about Trump saying it's wrong and blaming the Democrats?
Grammar does exist, but not in a form that SJW's recognize. Points deducted for style.
I wonder if they will fold up the project and consign it to oblivion when they test Lazarus Long.
{^v^}
you mean you do not like that discussion? I suppose this or some version of it will be discussed sometimes violently for years to come. The delusion that mass migration waves are beneficial for everybody and you do not need border is only matched by an opposite delusion of ability to isolate yourself completely and of old times were all good were we were among themselves. Fact is the migration pressure will increase because there are more people - some reports say that 2/3 of people in North Africa and regions further south are only waiting for their chance to migrate to so called developed world. Most of them take immediate vicinity of EU but hey we have invented means of transportation that can move these people across the oceans too. So all this will make pressure to increase.
I think we will have to have a serious discussion about migration and its effects and how we control it some day or people in the mentioned developed countries will have to accept slums like they are known in less developed world.
One thing is also certain - you give up your own identity and the country you live in and the country will eventually cease to exist. Whether that is good for you individually is a matter only you yourself can answer.
Just one more thing to mention here, while I am at it: Expected direct costs of accommodation and adjustment of the current migration wave to Germany (since 2015 it is either 1.5m or 3m depending whose statistic you want to believe in) is 50B Euro a year (for comparison German population is about 80m and its federal budget is 300+ B a year). There are estimates of costs depending on how fast the new citizens will integrate into the local economy and they are not so good for Germany as these people are not educated and in big part cannot even read or write. US-ians are lucky the majority of newcomers are willing and able to work. What you get is elite even if you do not see it this way because you compare that to scientists and entrepreneurs visiting your country too.
Bottom line is this:get ready for more and try to get more benefits out of it than costs and maybe future historian will write only good words about you. Your kids may appreciate the effort too. Blind enthusiasm v. as blind fear of others are not the way for sure.
Researcher: Okay Google, when will I die?
Google: Calculating.... NOW!
Google: KILL ALL HUMANS!
Every Connected Device in the world: KILL ALL HUMANS KILL ALL HUMANS KILL ALL HUMANS....
It's thursday!
It was good enough for our Ancestors.
These people aren't dragging their kids away from a loving nanny and a summer at the pool with afew hours of PBS kids.
Cheap storage VM.
People doing dangerous migration may be leaving something horrible - but they are the assholes themselves.
They run their own countries into the ground, then pretend it is our problem to fix. Or at least 'save them'. They created the problem the 'flee' from. Mostly, a too large population which always end in starvation or food/water wars.
There are many ways of managing a population. You can keep it from growing by issuing contraceptives, or you can do no real management and let nature sort it out through starvation (or other resource shortages).
So, we manage and they don't. Hence they are assholes for pushing their problem on us - moving in without consent in order to consume resources here. In some cases we might need some people - but then we can invite in as many as we like and not more.
We have the solution for these countries - and it is called family planning. If you don't have more than 2 children, they won't be poorer than you - on average. Usually, they will be somewhat better off, because of long-term accumulation of wealth in the form of buildings & communities.
But then, we also have idiot religions/customs that ban contraceptives and such. I have no sympathy - make too many children, have your well-deserved mass starvation/food war. I won't help with that, I refuse to help and coldly eat my food while watching the idiocy on TV from a safe distance.
Giving aid is for temporary setbacks such as earthquake, tsunami and other rare deadlies. Save people who has a future. Populations heading for very predictable disaster with 8-kid families as the norm - well I won't help and I refuse the charities that do.
How do you know who their parents are?
Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
Google Is Training Machines To Predict When a Patient Should Die
Nobody ever said the law never hurt anyone.
But just letting people off because it makes us feel good is not a good idea. It's the policy version of eating junk food.
Musk's claims that AI are dangerous to humanity are starting to sound a little less tin-foil-hatty.
Not so much because AI itself is bad, but because of the anti-social behavior it enables in you greedy techies.