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Google Is Training Machines To Predict When a Patient Will Die (bloomberg.com)
A newly developed tool by Google can forecast a host of patient outcomes, including how long people may stay in hospitals, their odds of re-admission and chances they will soon die. Google documented some of this tool's abilities in May; in one instance, Google's tool estimated, by taking 175,639 data points into consideration, that a particular patient's odds at dying during her stay at the hospital was 19.9 percent, up from 9.3 percent that the hospital's computers had estimated. Now Bloomberg reports what Google intends to do with this new tool next. From the report: Google's next step is moving this predictive system into clinics, AI chief Jeff Dean told Bloomberg News in May. Dean's health research unit -- sometimes referred to as Medical Brain -- is working on a slew of AI tools that can predict symptoms and disease with a level of accuracy that is being met with hope as well as alarm. Inside the company, there's a lot of excitement about the initiative.
"They've finally found a new application for AI that has commercial promise," one Googler says. Since Alphabet's Google declared itself an "AI-first" company in 2016, much of its work in this area has gone to improve existing internet services. The advances coming from the Medical Brain team give Google the chance to break into a brand new market -- something co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have tried over and over again. Software in health care is largely coded by hand these days. In contrast, Google's approach, where machines learn to parse data on their own, "can just leapfrog everything else," said Vik Bajaj, a former executive at Verily, an Alphabet health-care arm, and managing director of investment firm Foresite Capital. "They understand what problems are worth solving," he said. "They've now done enough small experiments to know exactly what the fruitful directions are." The report adds that, among other things, Google's tool has the ability to sift through notes buried in PDFs or scribbled on old charts.
"They've finally found a new application for AI that has commercial promise," one Googler says. Since Alphabet's Google declared itself an "AI-first" company in 2016, much of its work in this area has gone to improve existing internet services. The advances coming from the Medical Brain team give Google the chance to break into a brand new market -- something co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have tried over and over again. Software in health care is largely coded by hand these days. In contrast, Google's approach, where machines learn to parse data on their own, "can just leapfrog everything else," said Vik Bajaj, a former executive at Verily, an Alphabet health-care arm, and managing director of investment firm Foresite Capital. "They understand what problems are worth solving," he said. "They've now done enough small experiments to know exactly what the fruitful directions are." The report adds that, among other things, Google's tool has the ability to sift through notes buried in PDFs or scribbled on old charts.
Google fixes false positive rate of patient death predictor machines by training another machine to kill patients predicted to die.
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
Google issues the "Kill Command" when you have out lived your usefulness.
It is in the Terms Of Service when you started using Google, didn't you read it?
Google's tool has the ability to sift through notes buried in PDFs or scribbled on old charts.
To hell with this death predictor... Sell the product that can read doctors' handwriting!!!
General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
http://www.deathclock.com/ has already been doing this for well over a decade.
No sig today...
All perps that get arrested get separated from their families.
That is why you go to the actual border rather than trying to sneak across the middle of the dessert.
It's funny how none of you screeching virtue signallers have stopped to consider the implications of dragging a 2 year old across the Arizona desert in summer.
A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
Still, Volchenboum believes these algorithms could save lives and money
"Still, Volchenboum believes these algorithms could save money. "
FTFA.
Here's the problem: how does one avoid a bad feedback loop? i.e. Computer predicts patient is likely to die, so doctors spend less time attempting to work the problem and/or shift the patient into a palliative care pathway. By predicting that a patient is likely to die, the computer will have made that patient EVEN MORE likely to die.
Well, that might explain why Google keeps posting funeral expense insurance banner ads whenever I log in...
The DoD is also into predicting when their patients will die, and into making money in the process.
just a few points to your false commentary
1. it is a misdemeanor to be in the US without documentation
2. coming into the country before turning yourself over to authorities is common practice when seeking asylum
3. Sure, Arizona in the summer, when crossing between Yuma and Ajo, is dangerous, but this policy has only been in effect in the Spring and almost all of the detentions are occurring in populated areas NOT between Ajo and Yuma.
4. These sort of enforcement policies will, in fact, force people to try and cross in remote and dangerous areas, resulting in more deaths
just sayin
"The Google AI reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
I have. It takes some real desperation to make that happen. The only way to make that worse is to seperate said 2 year old from it's parents and lock it away in what amounts to a refurbished dog pen as if the 2 year old is even capable of criminal culpability. Even Trump recognized that that was sufficiently repugnant that he'd better try to blame someone else for it.
Oddly, you simultaneously cheer for the action and Trump who now says the action is wrong.You also seem to believe what Trump says, but stand against the people Trump says are responsable for the action you applaud.
Orwell was right about Doublethink, but wrong about who would institute it.
Offering funeral home and cemetery ads based on anticipated immediacy
This could be used for good purposes and bad. We know which most corporate financials would choose.
Greater than 50% chance of dying in hospital, time to become an outpatient. The good, perhaps your chances of dying reduce once you leave, hospital that is :)
And insurance policies that have a clause that states if your chance of dying while in hospital is greater than 50% then there's no cover for treatments only death. The good, perhaps the cost of the cover goes down.
When shit hits the fan get some of these https://youtu.be/pY-GncsZ-UE
Yup, automatically throw that patient into palliative care and let them die.
Every god damn day in the tech press - "X does Y with machine learning".
X= Google, Microsoft or Facebook
Y = A problem that has been around for 20 years and has already had machine learning applied to it for 15 years
All because of clueless "IT expert" tech reporters breathlessly pumping out clickbait on that new whiz bang AI stuff that's solving the world's problems.
Algorithm: At an arbitrary chance of dying, withhold or delay insurance approval of a select (expensive) set of treatments. Business Rationale: 90% of an average person's lifetime medical costs are in the last year of life. Of that figure, another 90% of the costs are in the last 3 months of life. Optimizing the cutoff for medical treatment will maximum profits.
My real question is which institution is in massive HIPAA violation with giving Google all this data?
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
It is possible and common to both use anonymized patient data and remain HIPAA compliant.
They decide which people get insurance, and how good the coverage is.
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
Which can you make a backup of?
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
Monty Python saw this coming
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
(File this comment under T for Tasteless jokes that you don't want to repeat if you want to be well liked, for future reference)
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
I've always wanted a machine to stand over me and announce when I'll die in a robotic voice. Does it have robotic arms to hold a pillow over my mouth if it predicts wrong?
Our hospital has a betting pool that fairly accurately anticipates the time of death for a patient. Some of us are more accurate than others, of course, and make more money in the process. But it's all in good fun and we all get better in our predictions. For my part, I've won three times in three months, and overall that means I've won slightly more than I bet. If you're expecting to die, I hope you visit our hospital. You are welcome to bet along with us!
...omphaloskepsis often...
i bet they'll spend billions for this, all the while a cat is doing that job right now for a piece of tuna.
Please do convey to us the transcripts of the last several dozen immigrants you've personally interviewed in your efforts to uncover the reasons they had for taking such a risk and why they feel they had no other choices, it'll be very enlightening.
..what's that, you say? You've never spoken to any of these would-be immigrants, seeking refuge from whatever situation drove them from their homes? You're just speaking from 2nd/3rd/4th...Nth-hand accounts? Interesting.
Are you a parent, sir? Please ask your wife how she feels about this 'policy' from the current administration. I think we'll find her words to be very enlightening, and perhaps you will (should?) too.
Jeff Sessions is a Dominionist and acts like a Third Reich-era Nazi; he's a monster. Law without regard for mercy is not Justice.
0bama did it, too. I don't remember you complaining back then.
https://lawandcrime.com/immigration/obamas-immigration-agencies-separated-children-from-their-families-too-2/
Agreed. His boss should fire him. I understand he is familiar with that procedure.
I prefer Dethklok
General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
The only way Trump will fire Sessions is if Sessions fails to recite the Loyalty to Trump Oath daily, as Trump requires. It'll take Congress and/or the Judicial branch pulling Sessions up short before this will change. FFS even Bush's wife came out in the news condemning this. It's a sad sign of the times when everyone with a lick of sense are looking back nostalgicaly at the Bush era.
They don't represent everyone in the country though, and people are starting to get outraged about this as more and more of it hits the news. What they're doing to these people and their kids goes against what this country is about.
Sadly, I suspect you are right. I recognize that Trump finally saying the child separation is wrong is just empty words flying out of his mouth. It'll take a lot more pressure to get him to throw Sessions under the bus.
No Dr. McCoy beat google to it. The trick is not to wear a red shirt when the google AI comes around
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
I wonder how they feel about Trump saying it's wrong and blaming the Democrats?
I wonder if they will fold up the project and consign it to oblivion when they test Lazarus Long.
{^v^}
you mean you do not like that discussion? I suppose this or some version of it will be discussed sometimes violently for years to come. The delusion that mass migration waves are beneficial for everybody and you do not need border is only matched by an opposite delusion of ability to isolate yourself completely and of old times were all good were we were among themselves. Fact is the migration pressure will increase because there are more people - some reports say that 2/3 of people in North Africa and regions further south are only waiting for their chance to migrate to so called developed world. Most of them take immediate vicinity of EU but hey we have invented means of transportation that can move these people across the oceans too. So all this will make pressure to increase.
I think we will have to have a serious discussion about migration and its effects and how we control it some day or people in the mentioned developed countries will have to accept slums like they are known in less developed world.
One thing is also certain - you give up your own identity and the country you live in and the country will eventually cease to exist. Whether that is good for you individually is a matter only you yourself can answer.
Just one more thing to mention here, while I am at it: Expected direct costs of accommodation and adjustment of the current migration wave to Germany (since 2015 it is either 1.5m or 3m depending whose statistic you want to believe in) is 50B Euro a year (for comparison German population is about 80m and its federal budget is 300+ B a year). There are estimates of costs depending on how fast the new citizens will integrate into the local economy and they are not so good for Germany as these people are not educated and in big part cannot even read or write. US-ians are lucky the majority of newcomers are willing and able to work. What you get is elite even if you do not see it this way because you compare that to scientists and entrepreneurs visiting your country too.
Bottom line is this:get ready for more and try to get more benefits out of it than costs and maybe future historian will write only good words about you. Your kids may appreciate the effort too. Blind enthusiasm v. as blind fear of others are not the way for sure.
Researcher: Okay Google, when will I die?
Google: Calculating.... NOW!
Google: KILL ALL HUMANS!
Every Connected Device in the world: KILL ALL HUMANS KILL ALL HUMANS KILL ALL HUMANS....
It was good enough for our Ancestors.
These people aren't dragging their kids away from a loving nanny and a summer at the pool with afew hours of PBS kids.
Cheap storage VM.
Dude, your hard drive is going to fail. Make a backup.
Cheap storage VM.
How do you know who their parents are?
Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba