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Just 5 Percent of Earth's Landscape Is Untouched, Report Finds (axios.com)

A comprehensive new high-resolution analysis of human modification of the planet finds that just 5% of the Earth's land surface is currently unaffected by humans, far lower than a previous estimate of 19%. 95% of the Earth's land surface has some indication of human modification, while 84% has multiple human impacts, the study found. New Atlas reports: The researchers from The Nature Conservancy and Conservation Science Partners used publicly available, high-resolution data from ground surveys and remotely sensed imagery on land use in 1 square kilometer grids to provide a spatial assessment of the impact of 13 human-caused stressors across all terrestrial lands, biomes and ecological regions, including: Agriculture; The physical extent of human settlement; Transportation, including railroads and minor roads; Mining, energy production; and Electrical infrastructure, including power lines.

52% of ecological regions and 49% of countries are considered moderately modified. These regions are highly fragmented, retain up to only 50% of low modified lands and fall within critical land use thresholds. Only 30% of terrestrial ecological regions and 18% of the world's countries have a low degree of land modification and retain most of their natural lands, which are distant from human settlements, agriculture and other modified environments. The study found the least modified biomes tend to be in high latitudes and include tundra, boreal forests, or taiga and temperate coniferous forests. On the other hand, the most modified biomes include more tropical landscapes, such as temperate broadleaf and mixed forests, as well as mangroves.

40 of 88 comments (clear)

  1. 5%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    That's still a surprisingly large amount. Still though, it would be better if we leave at least 10%-20% alone entirely. As the quote goes, "the planet doesn't need our help to survive, the planet needs our absence."

    1. Re:5%? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Just Antarctica + Greenland is already way over 5%. Vast areas of Siberia, Alaska, and Nunavut are uninhabited wilderness.

      I would like to see a better explanation of their methodology.

    2. Re:5%? by quenda · · Score: 2

      Australia has been inhabited throughout, if sparsely, for tens of thousands of years.
      Early inhabitants altered the ecosystem by sending megafauna to extinction, and lighting frequent fires, drastically changing forests.
      Even before the recent introduction of farming, mining and towns, there was little or nothing of the landscape left "untouched".

      Antarctica and Greenland are relatively virginal compared to Australia.

    3. Re: 5%? by quenda · · Score: 1

      The "living in harmony" thing is not total BS. They did after a time reach a sustainable equilibrium.
      We have no idea if or when industrial society will do that. Or if it is desirable.

    4. Re:5%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Just Antarctica + Greenland is already way over 5%. Vast areas of Siberia, Alaska, and Nunavut are uninhabited wilderness.

      I would like to see a better explanation of their methodology.

      The word wasn't "uninhabited" the word was "unaffected" which means something completely different. Greenland, for example, has a vast loss of icesheets (depth; area sometimes increases as the ice sheet flows faster) and so large areas of Greenland, even where nobody has ever walked are affected. You could remotely measure changes, for example by seeing loss of reflectivity from glaciers that are covered in soot. You don't need detailed methodology to understand that uninhabited areas can be affected by people.

    5. Re:5%? by Ross+Finlayson · · Score: 2

      But much of the remote land in Australia is still used for cattle grazing - in which case it won't count as "untouched".

    6. Re:5%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Existence is perpetual change. Get used to it.

    7. Re: 5%? by sosume · · Score: 1

      The equilibrium that existed meant humans get to live and the large animals had to die. This has happened consistently everywhere men was introduced.

    8. Re:5%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Australia's ecosystem got screwed up a long time ago by artificially introducing foreign animals.
      It isn't untouched.

      Antarctica and Greenland are ice covered and as a result their landscape changes drastically by human introduced climate change.
      Even Siberia is thawing.

    9. Re: 5%? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Except in Africa, where the humans originated?

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    10. Re:5%? by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

      I would like to see a better explanation of their methodology.

      No, you fucking anti-science asshat, you wouldn't. If you had wanted to see it, you'd have read the linked article. Since you obviously don't care enough to put a lick of effort into educating yourself, I'll summarize for you, in the hopes you can at least make it through a /. comment:

      We analyzed all terrestrial lands excluding Antarctica.

      That said, the reason they can get to 5% is that they apply a "fragmentation metric" to the places with human impacts, and estimate them as falling off as you move away from where they find these impacts. They bin the human impacts by severity, and the higher the severity of the impact (open pit mining, e.g.) the further they estimate the impacts extend.

      This is far from perfect, but it's not a terrible method. Running a railroad line through deserted land doesn't just impact the land under the tracks. During construction you're altering the land, changing the drainage, foliage, etc. There may be dumps of rock and soil from construction, or roads built to bring in materials. While in use, the pollution and noise isn't constrained to the immediate area. Animals who die on the tracks don't live under them generally.

      Since they excluded Antarctica, and you noted Greenland, it's clear that you don't know about Camp Century. (Not that they necessarily picked up much of that, but holy shit.)

      I think it's fair to argue that they made this "fragmentation metric" too large, but if you really want to do that, you're going to have to publish a rebuttal, not just post lazy, ignorant shit on /..

      If you'd been motivated enough to even just skim the article, you'd find this graphic, which looks pretty much like what I personally expected, and probably in line with what you expected as well: https://wol-prod-cdn.literatum.... Since you you find this challenging, HM stands for Human Modification, and green is low, and red is high.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    11. Re: 5%? by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      Yup, we killed off the elephants, and whales, and cattle, and rhinos. Oh, and I'm sure we were at fault for the dinosaurs too. /sarcasm

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    12. Re:5%? by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      The word wasn't "uninhabited" the word was "unaffected...

      Please read the subject line again.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    13. Re:5%? by dcw3 · · Score: 1

      They divided the world map in 20 squares. Human activity was not found in only one those squares, probably in Greenland. Solid methodology.

      I'd love to see a map of dividing a sphere into 20 squares.

      --
      Just another day in Paradise
    14. Re:5%? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      I'd love to see a map of dividing a sphere into 20 squares.

      They were non-Euclidean squares.

    15. Re:5%? by strikethree · · Score: 1

      There is an Agenda here. Good luck on getting a rational explanation of the methodology. Probably something to do with essential oil residue or something. ;)

      --
      "Someone needs to talk to the tree of liberty about its ghoulish drinking problem." by ohnocitizen
  2. A million years of human history by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I'd be surprised if humans haven't had an impact on most of the Earth's landmass.

    1. Re:A million years of human history by jpaine619 · · Score: 1

      Where are you getting your figure of 1 million years? Modern humans evolved around 200,000 years ago. The humans prior to that weren't us. Different species. That species no longer exists. Including them in the results is bullshit.

  3. Gentrification, Ho! by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

    Where is this 5%? I bet the rents are still really cheap there.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  4. Re:The definition of "affected by humans" is the k by thesupraman · · Score: 3, Interesting

    > I will hike or ride my mountain bike anywhere I damned well please and I don't give a rat's ass what some Prius-driving douche bag thinks about me doing it.

    You know quite a lot of humanity considers mountain bike riding douche bags to be sharing their bag with prius driving douche bags..
    Just pointing out reality.

    I wonder if you are so ready to 'rock and roll' with the pickup driving shotgun toting types who dislike you both equally?

  5. Go to New Mexico by guacamole · · Score: 1

    Outside of Albuquerque, the only big city, the population density there is so low that you can end up driving dozens of miles between even seeing gas stations.When driving through a rare small city, you may realize it's a ghost town as most buildings are abandoned and their windows are boarded up.

    1. Re:Go to New Mexico by Ross+Finlayson · · Score: 2

      But I'll bet that even in most of these remote desert areas, you'll find roads (or remains of roads) not far away. For fun, I like to visit Degree Confluence Points (http://www.confluence.org/), and I've been surprised at how easy most of them are to reach, even in supposedly remote patches of desert. I rarely have had to hike more than a couple of miles from a (admittedly, often 4WD) road.

  6. Don’t blame ME! by Hallux-F-Sinister · · Score: 1

    I can only touch, at most, laying flat on my back, spread-eagled, MAYBE 10 square feet, 12 tops... but it cannot be higher than that, and I doubt it’s even that much. Most of the time, I only touch about one or two square feet, because I’m standing up or walking around.

    --
    Our reign has gone on long enough. Indeed. Summon the meteors.
    1. Re:Don’t blame ME! by Dins · · Score: 1

      >Don’t blame ME!

      Step it up, dammit! You've got a lot of planet touching to do!

    2. Re:Don’t blame ME! by Hallux-F-Sinister · · Score: 1

      I’m concerned about what proportion of the planet consents to me touching them, though. Many parts of the planet, especially some attached loosely to the surface, (mainly by a hundred and twenty or so pounds of gravitational force each,) at the interface between the top of the solid crust and the bottom of the principally gaseous layer, seem to be less than excited to have me touching them... which is sad, as many look eminently touchable.

      --
      Our reign has gone on long enough. Indeed. Summon the meteors.
  7. Meaningless by iamacat · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What part of the Earth is untouched by ants? Fungus? Gophers? Butterflies? Is that good or bad? We must define some criteria that makes land preferable - furtile, healthy to live on, aestatically pleasing and so on. Complely free of humans does not strike me as a rational criteria.

    1. Re:Meaningless by quenda · · Score: 4, Funny

      What part of the Earth is untouched by ants?

      Cyanobacteria! Since they spewed their toxic oxygen into the atmosphere, nothing has been the same.

    2. Re:Meaningless by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What part of the Earth is untouched by ants?

      Antarctica, ironically.

  8. And this is news? by aglider · · Score: 2

    It's a few hundred thousands years humans are reshaping the planet. Faster and faster as the technology allows.
    And when you have a few billions of bare standing apes strolling all over the planet, actually all of it, it takes years to reshape it.
    I can bet that only portions of the large deserts (hot or icy) are part of that 5%.

    --
    Sent as ripples into the electromagnetic field. No single photon has been harmed in the process.
  9. It's the LIFE, baby. by aglider · · Score: 1

    Before there were lichens and fungi to reshape the landscape.
    Then came the plants, the amphibians, the reptiles, the birds, the mammals and Internet.

    --
    Sent as ripples into the electromagnetic field. No single photon has been harmed in the process.
  10. This is a duplicate so are we at 10% now ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 2

    Or is it just a contest to see how many times Slashdot can dupe a story ?

  11. Oh and once again Really ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 1

    Just how much of Antarctica is impacted ?

    Not only a dupe a fear mongering dupe.

  12. 5% Untouched is very misleading by n2hightech · · Score: 4, Insightful

    They looked at 1km squares and if anything in it has been changed by man then that whole 1Km sq has been affected. So you have someone in a 4 wheeler run across a patch of desert and leave a mark the whole 1 Km square has been affected. Technically they are right however in all practical ways they are misleading. The more meaningful number might be the 30% of land that has low modification. Low modification most people would see as untouched. A lot of the 52% of moderately modified land is still fairly untouched. So a more correct and less concerning title would be 82% of the earth's surface still nearly untouched by man. Of course that would not get people all worked up and worried would it. Numbers don't lie liars use numbers...

    1. Re:5% Untouched is very misleading by Nkwe · · Score: 1

      There is also a lot of "untouched" land surface that happens to be under an ocean.

    2. Re:5% Untouched is very misleading by Solandri · · Score: 1

      They looked at 1km squares and if anything in it has been changed by man then that whole 1Km sq has been affected. So you have someone in a 4 wheeler run across a patch of desert and leave a mark the whole 1 Km square has been affected. Technically they are right however in all practical ways they are misleading.

      The way to prevent these sorts of measures from being misleading is to use the same criteria in both directions and give both numbers. i.e. Look at 1x1 km blocks and see what percentage contains some human encroachment (say 95%). Then look at 1x1 km blocks and see what percentage contains some areas without human encroachment. (say 95%).

      The you combine the two numbers to say that by your measurements, "the percentage of land untouched by humans is somewhere between 5% and 95%." If those error margins are so large that the statement sounds ridiculous, then you need to go back to the drawing board and work on developing a better way to measure which reduces your error margins so they're not laughable.

    3. Re:5% Untouched is very misleading by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

      I don't believe that the stuff under an ocean is referred to as "land surface" by anyone, except, perhaps, you.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    4. Re:5% Untouched is very misleading by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

      What constitutes "touching," exactly? A backpacker walking across the land? An airplane flying over it? Smoke from a campfire wafting over it? Climate change?

      By defining what "touching" means, you can pick a number from 0% to 50% untouched, just change the parameters.

  13. Re:The definition of "affected by humans" is the k by jpaine619 · · Score: 1

    You know quite a lot of humanity considers mountain bike riding douche bags to be sharing their bag with prius driving douche bags..

    Yeah? How the fuck did you come to that conclusion? You take any polls? Are you assuming the arbitrary number of people you know, and whom consider mountain bike riders to be douche bags, are representative of the population as a whole? Or did you just make that shit up on the spot?
    Yeah, that's what I thought....

  14. Re:taxes? by DeSigna · · Score: 1

    Are they really used for cattle?

    Yes, they are. Some are also used for sheep. Our dry climate and adapted ecosystems require a lot of space to support livestock, so there's a lot of massive pastoral leases on marginal land that nobody could find any other use for in the 1800s.

    For example: Australian livestock stations over 4000 sq km in size

    The largest station (or "ranch") in the USA misses this list by nearly 1000 sq km. If the largest were its own country, Anna Creek, it'd be around 147 out of nearly 200 countries ranked by land area, beating out about a quarter of countries in the world.

  15. Announcing a new tour service to untouched places! by mnemotronic · · Score: 1

    Sign up today! Now accepting passengers for a worldwide tour to all the places untouched by humans! Be the first in your economic tier to poop where humans have never walked. Flick cigarette butts and plastic 6-pack rings onto soil unsullied by anyone! For a true affluent-adventure, we will provide the equipment needed to drill and frack on these virgin locations. Imagine the glory! Consider the potential economic advantages! Fantasize how you'll be able to lord it over your so-called friends and relatives!

    --
    The Russians have won. They have made the world a cesspool of distrust, greed, fear and hate.