Tesla Model 3 Is Heading To Europe (bloomberg.com)

The Tesla Model 3 has cleared its last regulatory hurdle in Europe and will soon go on sale in the continent home to Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. "Deliveries should start in February for the Long Range Battery version of the midsize sedan -- the same variant first sold in the U.S. -- according to Tesla, after Dutch vehicle authority RDW issued the OK," reports Bloomberg. From the report: The European launch is crucial for Tesla as it navigates what Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk called a "very difficult" road ahead. The company is cutting jobs so it can profitably deliver lower-priced versions of the Model 3, Tesla's first car targeted for the mass market. Musk has pointed to sales of the sedan in Europe and China as a main reason he isn't concerned about any potential setback caused by a halving of the U.S. federal tax credit, to $3,750, on Tesla purchases as of Jan. 1.

With the Model 3, Tesla also has an opportunity to broaden its attack on the premium car market dominated by Germany's BMW AG, Daimler AG-owned Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen AG's Audi. Tesla, based in Palo Alto, California, said in its third-quarter shareholder letter that "the midsized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the U.S." The Model 3 became the top-selling luxury car there last year, outstripping the Audi Q5, BMW 3 Series and other well-known models. Analysts and industry executives, however, have observed that competition with Tesla cuts across traditional categories.

Comments

Re:He can't keep up with demand here, allegedly...

[drinkypoo]

I don't know where he plans to get the cars, but I'd get them from the plant to be built in China, since they're already buying Chinese cars in Europe. Slide a few over there now to high-profile (celebrity) customers, and then fill the demand later.

Production problems???

[SuperKendall]

Tesla solved the production problems, and has a lot of money rolling in. Now is the IDEAL time to roll into Europe, to rapidly reproduce the manufacturing they've managed to put into place in the U.S, and to get pre-orders and then sales started in Europe well before any of the traditional auto-makers can catch up.

Re:Production problems???

[gl4ss]

..ideal time? lots of money rolling in? solved all problems?

yet the ceo is saying that there are hard times ahead and cuts to costs absolutely have to be done with no other choice.

thing is, he is hoping he can get higher margin in europe from the cars(the price difference being much higher in many countries there towards favoring electric vehicles than in USA due to emissions based taxing).

basically normal cars are so cheaply taxed in usa it's a wonder anyone is buying teslas, frankly.

but say, take a typical car that costs 60k in usa and a 60k tesla - in europe in many countries you're looking at paying 100k for that 60k in usa car while the 60k tesla is still 60k. ....and speaking of traditional manufacturers they got lines ready to roll as soon as there's demand and the pricepoint is right.

Re: Production problems???

[Rei]

Holy fuck, when did Tesla increase its employees by 30% last year?

It was mentioned in the very email that announced the 7% downsizing, for starters. Or if you want lots of links documenting the hiring, here's the hiring spree they went on after their Q2 layoff last year, here's the rate of growth at GF1 alone, etc.

Re:Production problems???

[Rei]

Tesla has long stated that it plans to pay off the bonds in cash. Their FCF in Q3 alone was nearly as much as the value of the bonds. It's a total non-issue.

Re:Tesla model 3 must have insane battery tech

[Rei]

Tesla model 3 must have insane battery tech if it can reach Europe all the way from America on one charge!

To play a nice game of "Missing the Joke": Model 3s are traveling to Europe on the Glovis RORO ships. They load up at Pier 80 in SF weekly. The furthest ahead one is the Glovis Captain, passed through the Panama Canal a day ago and is now en route to Zeebrugge. The second ship, Glovis Cosmos, is passing the tip of Baja en route to the canal. The third ship, Glovis Symphony, is at Pier 80 now. It's not certain, but they may be bringing in a second carrier for the China exports; we have to wait and see.

Electric-powered non-stop transoceanic shipping is impractical with today's battery energy density; although cargo ships are very efficient, Atlantic trips would have their cargo capacity seriously slashed, and it'd be hard to cross the Pacific at all. The battery packs would also dramatically increase the cost of the ships, to impractical levels. That said, building oceanic "gigachargers" every ~700km using floating wind turbines (which exist, although they cost more than other wind turbines at present) and/or floating solar (starting to become common in reservoirs in China, and there's some small coastal pilot plants) could certainly do the trick with today's battery tech. Battery max charge rates are independent of battery size (in this case, about a gigawatt hour per ship), as are the rates in which a modular battery bank can discharge (the more modules for more storage capacity, the more power you can output). The same "0-80% in half an hour" that applies to cars can also apply to ships. The limiting factors for a ship would be docking time and connecting/disconnecting the (very) massive liquid-cooled cable with a crane. Stops would be once per day.

A Maersk Triple-E class ship with a gigawatt hour pack, by the time that battery production had scaled to the point of being able to supply such ships (already dropping under $100/kWh, probably $50-70/kWh by then at those scales), should run a similar cost to an existing Maersk Triple-E (~$190m). Deepwater wind / floating solar, although more expensive than near-shore and land-based alternatives, should still fuel ships at a cheaper cost than bunker fuel, particularly now that they're being forced to phase out sulfur-heavy fuels and putting their fuel in direct competition with diesel (there's also the advantage that one of the things that makes current deepwater wind projects expensive is the cost of connecting the turbines to shore, which is eliminated in this case). Having many GWh of storage sitting in port would also be a huge buffer to coastal power grids. Lastly - while it's hard to estimate (because you're factoring in widely varying ship rents atop all the existing price uncertainty of the above), some back-of-the-napkin calculations suggest that you could even "export power" (e.g. to disaster areas or areas that are temporarily overloaded) over distances of a few hundred kilometers for a cost of a couple cents or so per kWh.

But as for nonstop trans-oceanic shipping of goods on electric power today? No, that's not realistic on today's battery tech. Electric ferries and the like may be starting to take over short-range shipping markets in parts of Europe, but long-distance goods transport is a different story.

Re:He can't keep up with demand here, allegedly...

[Rei]

And as for the "cash bind", Tesla's FCF last quarter was nearly a billion dollars.

Re:He can't keep up with demand here, allegedly...

[Rei]

TSLAQ is hilarious. They're the market equivalent of 9/11 Truthers. ;)

The best thing about the Euro Model 3

[DrXym]

It uses type 2 CCS so it will be able to charge at any public charging station. And likewise Tesla chargers will be able to charge other kinds of EV.

Joined up thinking puts an end to bullshit charging format wars.

Re:The best thing about the Euro Model 3

[DrXym]

Tesla will have to allow it because there is an EU directive that says they must offer nondiscriminatory charging to any kind of vehicle through a common payment form, e.g. credit card and type 2 CCS. Strictly speaking this only applies to charge points built after Nov 2019 but as Tesla are still building out their network they're going to be on the hook.

Prior Tesla vehicles used a modified type 2 connector which had DC charging without the additional combined charging DC pins. It was a neat design but it's not the mandated minimum so I assume their cars will support either form.

The only way I could see Tesla not accepting other vehicles at their charges is if they claimed their charge points were part of private club or something but that probably wouldn't fly in court. Personally I don't see why Tesla would turn away revenue regardless of whose car it was.

Re:The best thing about the Euro Model 3

[DrXym]

They'll have to unless they want to speciously argue that their charging infrastructure is somehow a private members club or similar. That's because the EU has rules which come into effect about public chargers having to offer type 2 CCS and non-discriminatory pricing.

Re:The best thing about the Euro Model 3

[AmiMoJo]

Interesting. I know they had to offer at least one charger for other vehicles, but it was often just a 7kW socket. Do you have a citation for this rule?

Re:The best thing about the Euro Model 3

[DrXym]

This directive. Article 4, parts 4, 8, 10 & 11 in particular.

Re:The best thing about the Euro Model 3

[AmiMoJo]

I don't think any of that requires Tesla to offer charging to non-Tesla drivers. All the responsibilities are on energy providers to basically be fair to charge network operators.

Re:The best thing about the Euro Model 3

[AmiMoJo]

The problem at the moment is that it's not clear how to make rapid charging pay for itself. It's pretty much a loss leader, with most networks seeing it as a way to get established and put a stake in the ground at the best locations.

Generally a rapid charger will generate â5-10/hour when in use. So â240/day max assuming 100% utilization, more likely â100/day for busy areas. Maintenance costs on top. The chargers cost maybe â50-60k each to buy and install, assuming there is decent infrastructure. So once you have paid for the electricity and the backend payment system and customer support the pay-back time on the chargers isn't great, especially in less popular areas.

They have a lifetime of about 10 years before they are worn out too.

In the long run the usage will go up, and so will the prices. Most people will avoid them and charge at home or their destination, and paying â50/1000 km range on the motorway will be acceptable. At that point everyone will want a slice of the action, including the taxman.

Re:Good then

[Rei]

Wrong. "Europe" is a misnomer. They're shipping only to Western Europe now, and not including Iceland. We have to keep waiting, along with Eastern Europe. :P There remains only one Model 3 in the country (which someone imported from the US, so it has the wrong charge connector).

Hopefully they'll open up sales here soon. If not by this summer than I may look into importing one from the Netherlands.

Re:T-Minus 2 years

[AmiMoJo]

It doesn't seem like an ideal car for Europe to be honest. The boot (trunk) leaks badly when it rains and while the shape (low and wide) is popular in the US in Europe people prefer a bit narrower and taller. Also it's very, very expensive compared to other cars in the more developed European EV market.

I'm sure they will sell plenty, at least at first while the pre-orders are in place. A lot of people are waiting for the $35k model though, which isn't even on the timeline yet. Many seem to be expecting it to be â/£35k too, which isn't going to happen. Aside from anything else you have to add ~20% sales tax. And that's the poverty spec.

Re:Why all the mentions of the Big Three?

[Rei]

Does anybody seriously think the Tesla Model 3 will be competitive with anything from Mercedes, Audi and BMW?

What do you mean 'will be'? No need for the future tense.

Tesla has a niche, because it currently is the only brand offering cars with such large batteries.

Hey, remember how the Bolt was supposed to blow away Tesla sales because of its large battery? Funny thing...

Moreover, since the Big Three will offer premium EVs very soon

Yes, same "Tesla Killer" story we've been hearing for the past decade. Meanwhile, Tesla's lead only continues to grow.

Re:Tough sell here...

[Rei]

After VAT (~20% in most of Europe), yes. Although some parts of Europe (such as Norway) don't have to pay VAT on EVs like they do on ICE vehicles. When you see the price of a car in the US, remember that there's no nationwide VAT over there.

The cheapest version you can get in Europe also has a 560km WLTP, AWD, comes with the premium package and does 0-100kph in 4,8 seconds.

Re:He can't keep up with demand here, allegedly...

[Rei]

Keep living in your TSLAQ bubble as long as your conspiracy-theory-loving head can manage it.

Re:T-Minus 2 years

[AmiMoJo]

Should have linked the videos.

https://youtu.be/hCv_Ha0oWjE
https://youtu.be/rk1QRJjHjsM
https://youtu.be/RytwKuBAIuM

Basically when it's been raining and you open the boot, water pours in and all your stuff gets wet.

The seal isn't great either, there is a guy on TMC who didn't close it properly (car said shut, but it wasn't) and the boot got completely flooded. When he presses on the carpet it releases a puddle of water now. Apparently there is no drain!

Unfortunately the design has already been approved for the EU so that's what we are getting.

Re:T-Minus 2 years

[Anonymous Coward]

It is watertight, but on the bottom side only.

Re:T-Minus 2 years

[stealth_finger]

Righto then. I suppose you can't expect too much for that kind of money XD

Re:No sure about EU demand.

[Luckyo]

It's less about taxation and much more about culture in most countries being very different when it comes to showing off. In many countries, it's frowned upon to show off your wealth in extravagant ways.

Tesla is perfect for this, because it's much less of a "look at this bling bling I have" and more about "I care about the environment" which is currently very much in vogue with both the youth and the middle aged people.

Re:Tesla model 3 must have insane battery tech

[lurcher]

Hey, lets invent wind powered ships, they could catch on.