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Toyota Is Losing the Electric Car Race, So It Pretends Hybrids Are Better

Posted by BeauHD on from the cause-and-effect dept.

Ben Jervey from DeSmogBlog writes about how Toyota is "using questionable logic" to claim hybrid vehicles are superior than electric vehicles, when in reality it's only saying that because it decided years ago to invest in gasoline-electric hybrids and fuel cells in the long term instead of battery production. This decision is now coming back to haunt them. From the report: There are at least 12 car companies currently selling an all-electric vehicle in the United States, and Toyota isn't one of them. Despite admitting recently that the Tesla Model 3 alone is responsible for half of Toyota's customer defections in North America -- as Prius drivers transition to all-electric -- the company has been an outspoken laggard in the race to electrification. Now, the company is using questionable logic to attempt to justify its inaction on electrification, claiming that its limited battery capacity better serves the planet by producing gasoline-electric hybrids. For years, Toyota leadership has shunned investment in all-electric cars, laying out a more conservative strategy to "electrify" its fleet -- essentially doubling down on hybrids and plug-in hybrids -- as a bridge to a future generation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. As Tesla, Nissan, and GM have led the technological shift to fully battery electric vehicles, Toyota has publicly bashed the prospects of all-electric fleets. (See, for instance, the swipe the company took at plug-in vehicles in this recent Toyota Corolla Hybrid commercial.)

Last week, at the Geneva Auto Show, a Toyota executive provided a curious explanation for the company's refusal to launch a single battery electric vehicle. As Car and Driver reported, Toyota claims that it is limited by battery production capacity and that "Toyota is able to produce enough batteries for 28,000 electric vehicles each year -- or for 1.5 million hybrid cars." In other words, because Toyota has neglected to invest in battery production, it can only produce enough batteries for a trivial number of all-electric vehicles. Due to this self-inflicted capacity shortage, the company is forced to choose between manufacturing 1.5 million hybrids or 28,000 electric cars. Using what Car and Driver called "fuzzy math," the company tried to justify the strategy to forgo electric vehicles (EVs) on environmental grounds. As Toyota explained it, "selling 1.5 million hybrid cars reduces carbon emissions by a third more than selling 28,000 EVs." As for the "fuzzy math," Toyota's calculation "seems to assume that for every hybrid sold, a fully gasoline-powered car would be taken off the road," writes Jervey. "In reality, many Toyota hybrid buyers are replacing a Toyota hybrid. And, based on Toyota's own revelation that they are losing Prius drivers to Tesla, it stands to reason that many Toyota hybrid drivers would jump at the opportunity to transition to an all-electric Toyota."

47 of 434 comments (clear)

  1. Toyota's Smart Business Strategy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yes, electric vehicles appear to be the future, but hybrids do have distinct market advantages today: range, refueling infrastructure, and refuel time.

    If Toyota's competitors are zigging toward all-electric, it makes competitive sense for Toyota to zag toward an energy-efficient technology that fits better into the state of the current fueling infrastructure. In fact, doing so, Toyota can manufacture more hybrid cars and scale their battery production up when the electric infrastructure, battery storage, and refueling time issues are resolved.

    This seems like a smart business strategy to me.

  2. It all depends on the use case by Knightman · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I would say Toyota is right about some things but it's not what the market wants out of new vehicles today so they have to spin it anyway they can to keep up.

    Where I live hybrids are better since the distances involved getting to a major city involves some pretty advanced travel planning if you are driving an EV which means the distance can increase with up to 50% to accommodate charging stations. Plus, it gets really cold during the winter which reduces any EV to a frozen lump that can travel at best 60% of their stated range which complicates things further.

    Which also explains why everyone I know who bought an EV also has a gas guzzler or a hybrid as a second car.

    --
    --- Reality doesn't care about your opinions, it happens anyway and if you are in the way you'll get squished.
    1. Re:It all depends on the use case by mentil · · Score: 4, Funny

      I use an EV to tow a Prius. When the EV runs out of juice, I ditch it at the side of the road and drive the Prius the rest of the way.
      Hey, works for rockets! /s

      --
      Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
    2. Re:It all depends on the use case by miltimj · · Score: 2

      With my EV, I get 70% in a MN winter, and that's keeping it at 70F before I ever get in. We've never run out of battery in a single day for the past 6 months. We do have a gas car, but it basically just sits there because it's much more expensive to drive and not nearly as fun.

      --
      "Truth is not decided by majority vote" consensus gentium -- Norman Geisler
    3. Re:It all depends on the use case by misnohmer · · Score: 2

      I think this was true when EV's had sub 100 miles range. With EV's approaching or even exceeding 300 miles of rated range today, even if in the winter you get 200+ miles. I drive an EV with official EPA 259 mile rated range. I never charge it past 224 miles, never have any range issues. I drove it across the US in the fall with no more planning than I would have done with an ICE car, granted I picked a highway (I-90) with superchargers every 100-150 miles but I would have picked the same highway with an ICE car anyways..Did ~6600 miles on that trip - never once worried about the range. I slowed down a couple of times to speed limit for few miles to not push the range too far - maybe that is the untold secret of EV's, usually slowing down reduces the per mile consumption, so when you are just a little short, just slow down a little. In 6 years of driving an EV, I only altered my driving plans twice due to car's range and charger availability, both times were a while back (before 2015) and today the same area has fast chargers so it would not be an issue anymore. Oh, I used to keep an ICE car as backup, got rid of it in Dec 2016 - all EV household now, would not want to go back. Nothing like starting a day with 200+ miles of range "in the tank", every day.

      To your point though, if you drive more than 200 miles a day and there are no fast chargers around, EV may not be the best choice. HOWEVER, an average US daily commute is 42 miles, and fast chargers are springing up around the US at an accelerating pace, so there are less and less people who will have this problem, and this is why Toyota was wrong and now falling behind.

  3. Re:Motivated Reasoning by mentil · · Score: 2

    Also sunk cost fallacy, in regards to hydrogen fuel cells.

    --
    Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
  4. Re:Title? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 3, Interesting

    There really is no "pretending". In many ways hybrids, and especially plug-in hybrids, are superior to all-electric.

    Plug-in hybrids use no gas for normal day to day driving, yet have the range when you need it. So you get the benefits of both gas and electric.

    They also cost less, which means way more people can afford them, and they stretch the world's economical accessible lithium reserves much further.

    My wife has a Tesla, and most days she doesn't even use 10% of its range.

  5. Re:TBF by JoshuaZ · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The cradle to grave environmental impact of most lithium-ion batteries is small, especially if CO2 is your primary concern. See for example https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231269141_Batteries_from_Cradle_to_Grave. See also Bingbing Li, Jianyang Li, Chris Yuan's "Life Cycle Assessment of Lithium Ion Batteries with Silicon Nanowire Anode for Electric Vehicles" (which can be found easily online but which I can't link to because the Slashdot filter is unhappy with the very long URL). That's specifically for silicon nanowire anode batteries, which is a pretty common design. The numbers for most others aren't that far off. Note also that as battery recycling and reuse becomes more common, and economies of scale ramp up further, the footprints in terms of CO2 and other pollutants will continue to decline.

    This also doesn't make much sense as an issue in the context of Toyota since a hybrid requires a pretty decent size battery also. While previous batteries were nickel-metal hydride for the Prius, the newer ones use a hefty lithium ion battery also. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1120320_lithium-ion-vs-nickel-metal-hydride-toyota-still-likes-both-for-its-hybrids. If one thinks that batteries are a big problem, then it isn't clear why one would think hybrid cars are a good thing.

  6. Hybrids are better, for now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Let me count the number of all-electric cars that cost less than $30,000.00 USD new, have a range of 400+ miles, and a refuel/recharge time of 3 minutes. 0.

    When hybrids are cheap, efficient enough (40+ mpg), and for all intensive purposes (just kidding, don't freak) instantaneously refuelable, they're better than those with an lesser range, higher cost, and marginally better fuel efficiency. Not only that, there's 50 years of manufacturing knowledge behind toyota's ICE. I would trust toyota's naturally aspirated camry to run 400k miles, because it has a proven track record. Will your tesla 3 make it to 400k? Maybe, maybe not. Will it cost $15k to refresh it? Maybe, maybe not.

    I *WANT* all electrics to be the norm. I want them for their MPGe, and lack of any transmission. However, it's just too early to claim that toyota is losing because they're not going balls deep into EV's. They're probably rolling every car they have off the lot as-is.

    1. Re:Hybrids are better, for now by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Interesting

      have a range of 400+ miles

      Uh.....gas cars have ranges of 200-300 miles. Jacking up the requirements to make a point about EVs isn't exactly unbiased.

      200-300? What kind of gas cars are you driving? I'll admit to limited experience (I'm currently in an early Leaf, and before that I drove Priuses and Geo Prisms), but every car I've ever owned could go at least 350 miles on a tank of gas, and most could make it to 400+ if you weren't spending all your time stuck in stop-and-go traffic. I assume 400-500 is what the industry as a whole is aiming for; the tank sizes seem to shrink as the mileage goes up, and vice versa, so a 45-50 MPG car like the Prius gets an 11 gallon tank, a 28-34 MPG car like the Camry gets a 14.5-16 gallon tank (smaller for higher MPG models), and a 21-22 MPG pickup like the Ford F150 gets a 23 gallon tank (standard; they have extended range versions with larger tanks). 400 mile range is not an unreasonable point of comparison; it's what almost every gas car can do.

      --
      $_ = "wftedskaebjgdpjgidbsmnjgcdwatb"; tr/a-z/oh, turtleneck Phrase Jar!/; print
    2. Re:Hybrids are better, for now by SvnLyrBrto · · Score: 2

      Um. No.

      Itâ(TM)s not the â70s or â80s anymore. My Mazda 3 (Not a hybrid. Not a Smart or iQ or even Fiat500 sized mini. Just a normal, everyday, ICE hatchback.) does better than 300 even in 100% stop-and-go hilly city driving. On an average tank, with mixed driving, I get about 375. And on a freeway road trip, itâ(TM)s good for nearly 500 to a tank. Itâ(TM)s actually the first car Iâ(TM)ve owned that routinely beats its EPA numbers.

      --
      Imagine all the people...
    3. Re:Hybrids are better, for now by Askmum · · Score: 3, Informative

      Uh.....gas cars have ranges of 200-300 miles. Jacking up the requirements to make a point about EVs isn't exactly unbiased.

      Maybe in gas-guzzling USA, not in Europe. 45 liter tank is pretty standard and a consumption of 6 l /100 km is too. That makes a range of 750 km or 465 miles. My previous diesel had 45 liter and did 4.4 l/100 km making 1000 km or 630 miles possible. Larger cars have higher consumption but also fuel tanks of 60 or 80 liter.

  7. Toyota's plug-in electric range is just too low by ganv · · Score: 2

    Toyota's approach could work if they would make a compelling plug-in hybrid. An electric vehicle isn't an upgrade over a plug-in hybrid unless its price is substantially lower (or maybe maintenance is much less.) I have been driving a Prius Plug-in since 2012 and it is a great car, but its all electric range of 12 miles is far below what is necessary to be an attractive option in 2019. The 'upgraded' Prius Prime from Toyota has 25 miles all electric range, but now the Volt has 53 miles range. If I had 60 miles electric range, I would be driving electric for about 90 percent of my driving. With no electric range anxiety because with a full tank it goes 450 miles, and with the Prius' reliability, that plug-in hybrid could be a real winner. It looks like Toyota is going to lose badly over the next decade unless they make a big change to prioritize electric range.

    1. Re:Toyota's plug-in electric range is just too low by mentil · · Score: 2

      More likely, they'll just buy out an EV manufacturer or a battery production company. Toshiba's market cap is 1/3 of Toyota's cash on hand (~$58B), for example, if they wanted the entire company.

      --
      Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
  8. Re:Title? by ctilsie242 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I will go stick my neck out and agree with you on this. With a plug-in hybrid, there isn't any worry about range anxiety, and you have the benefit of an EV of not needing to refuel often. To boot, I've seen inverters added to use the hybrid as a very efficient whole-house generator in case of a power failure.

    I do agree while most people can do OK with an EV, as they don't go far, day to day, it is nice to have the ability to not worry about trying to find a plug or Supercharger when going on an impromptu trip somewhere out in the country.

  9. Moore's Law for batteries exist. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 4, Insightful
    It is 7 years for batteries instead of 18 months for the chips. No one thought it is possible, many still dont believe it. Only Tesla believed it and bet the entire company on the trend line.

    All the "delays" and "missteps" by Tesla are basically waiting for battery price to fall enough to make its promises deliverable. Every announcement of Tesla is met with, "it is impossible". Then as years go by and when people are all berating Tesla for not keeping the promise, the battery price falls enough and suddenly its product is viable and has a positive gross margin!

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  10. Status symbol by Wookie+Monster · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think the reason why Prius owners are defecting to the Model 3 has nothing to do with EV vs. hybrid, but rather the status associated with the Model 3. The original Prius was a plain boxy car, but the sales really took off when they decided to make it completely odd looking (ugly). When this happened, hybrid owners could drive around displaying how "earth friendly" they are, and everyone would notice them.

    Nowadays every other Prius is a taxi/Uber/Lyft, and they're fairly common. Why would someone want to drive around making everyone think you're an Uber driver? The Model 3 got so much press due its delays, and now there's a sort of mystique surrounding it. People will pay attention to you again, and you can claim that you bought the car because you want to save the environment, but in reality, you care about the status symbol more than anything else.

    1. Re: Status symbol by DDumitru · · Score: 2

      Uber and Lyft drivers drive Prius hybrids because they are the lowest operating cost cars you can buy. The gas engines last to 200K+. Brakes are 100K+. The hybrid system is zero maintenance and the battery does not wear out. And you get 40 MPG is you drive it like a taxi cab.

  11. Re:Title? by Guspaz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Most plug-in hybrids can't handle normal day-to-day driving without using any gas, because most plug-in hybrids don't have enough electric range for that. The average American commutes 52 kilometers to work, round trip. Toyota's PHEV has an electric range of 40 kilometers. It can't even handle the *average* commute. Most PHEVs seem to be in a similar situation. There are a few that can actually deliver "no gas for normal daily use". The Chevy Volt, with its 85 kilometer electric range, can probably do it for most people.

    Toyota is putting a tiny 8.8 kWh battery in their PHEV. Chevy puts 18.4 kWh in theirs. Chevrolet reportedly pays $205 per kWh, and Tesla is supposedly around half that, so Toyota is only saving between one and two thousand dollars by skimping on the range...

  12. Re:Title? by jeff4747 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Plug-in hybrids use no gas for normal day to day driving

    Not really. The gas engine, more complex transmission, gas tank and so on mean you lose a ton of battery space. So in a car that could support a 200mi range battery pack, you get a 30mi range battery pack. Which means unless your commuting is particularly short, you're going to regularly use some gas.

    Source: I own a Volt.

  13. Legal limitations from the Rav4 EV-95 battery suit by Locutus · · Score: 5, Interesting

    You people do realize that Toyota had a 100% electric Rav4 in the early 2000s don't you? They partnered with Panasonic and made a kick ass NiMH battery they called the Prismatic EV-95 battery and it powered the Rav4 EV. But GM had sold the majority patent rights for NiMH to the oil industry and Toyota ended up in court and not only did they have to stop selling the Rav4 EV and the EV-95 batteries, they almost lost the right to sell their hybrids because they used NiMH too. That's right, the oil company wanted to shut down their use of NiMH in vehicles. FYI, the GM EV1 got 125 miles on a charge with the NiMH batteries they used. That was before GM collected them all and destroyed them once Bush/Cheney feed the industry $$$ to smoke hydrogen.

    So I have to wonder, why is Toyota so adverse to EVs when they were once industry leaders? Does it have to do with some legal declaration they made long ago in order to be "allowed" to continue to make and sell hybrids? It's almost insane how they are staying away from EVs.

    LoB

    --
    "Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
  14. Re: gas isn't going anywhere hybrid is fine by jeff4747 · · Score: 3, Informative

    The average person is not interested in the hassle of keeping an EV charged

    It's really not any hassle. You plug it in when you get home. Ta-da! You will now be keeping your car charged.

    (And if you can't reliably park somewhere with a charger, then don't get one. But chargers will get much more common as EVs take off, just like gas stations did when cars took off)

    People talking about battery cars keep using the gasoline paradigm where you go somewhere to "refuel". You don't do that with a battery car. Which means you're trading the hassle of an extra trip/stop and pumping your gas for the hassle of pushing in a plug.

  15. Re:TBF by rtb61 · · Score: 2

    The greatest resource for mining and refining for new battery production old batteries. Industrial scale recycling for a dominant electric vehicle market, will make those old batteries the cheapest source of material for new batteries. The scale will be huge and put in right into the mining refining ballpark.

    Toyota took a bet, that bet being people would be more resistant to all electric vehicles and they would be able to clean up with hybrids, they were wrong. Given a choice people are switching to all electric vehicles and solar battery home power system and filling the cars TAX FREE, all home solar battery power is tax free income, huge saving and really an easy sell. Pay tax on filling a Prius or refuel an all electric at home tax free over night. For the majority of drives the sane solution and those that whine but sometimes I need longer range, well, hire a car for that and return it when finished. Day to day, big savings in going all electric.

    Those executives who took the gamble, need to publicly apologise for the decision and correct it, not lie about it.

    --
    Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  16. Re:Title? by dirk · · Score: 3, Informative

    This is the exact reason I own a plug in hybrid versus and electric vehicle. I am a single guy, so I have 1 car. If I want to take a road trip somewhere, I would be screwed with an electric vehicle. Sure it would be possible, but it would be a nightmare trying to find someplace to charge in the midwest where I live. Sure, down the line when electric vehicles are more common this won't be an issue, but charges are still uncommon here. So I went with the plug in hybrid and have only filled the tank 3 times in 16 months, with 2 of those coming after road trip that used 75% of a tank of gas.

    --

    "Information wants to be expensive" - Stewart Brand, the same guy who said "Information wants to be free"
  17. Re: Title? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Oh My God! Your math is impeccable because there is No Way to plug-in at Anyones work! And oh shit! If not then they might have to use a whole quarter of a gallon to get home!!!! Eeeeeep!!!!! You are so right, hybrids are completely useless because having a calf that can cross the country and back without requiring a long stop at a plug is HORRIBLE! It is so much better to go 200-300 miles and then fucking stop.

    All electric is insane for anyone who needs to do more than a short commute EVER which is almost EVERYONE.

    All the Tesla owners I know have a second pure ICE car for -real driving- they say.

  18. Re: Title? by SNRatio · · Score: 2

    Oh My God! Your math is impeccable because there is No Way to plug-in at Anyones work!

    this whole argument seems pointless: horses for courses, full stop. But on this point: to a first (>90%) approximation: no, there is no plug in space for your car at work.

  19. Re:Title? by larryjoe · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Plug-in hybrids use no gas for normal day to day driving

    Not really. The gas engine, more complex transmission, gas tank and so on mean you lose a ton of battery space. So in a car that could support a 200mi range battery pack, you get a 30mi range battery pack. Which means unless your commuting is particularly short, you're going to regularly use some gas.

    Source: I own a Volt.

    The 1st-en Volt battery was 38 miles, and the 2nd-gen battery was 53 miles. The current gen plug-in hybrids all get around 50 miles, as that happens to be the capacity to qualify for the full federal tax credit. Since the median US commute is around 26.5 minutes, most commuters will use no gas for their daily commutes. And since there is zero range anxiety, there is no need for a backup car for longer commutes.

  20. Re: Envious Much? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

    You sound jealous

    You're damn right I am. She spent $80k on a high performance car, and she won't let me drive it.

  21. Re:Title? by miltimj · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The single biggest problem for hybrids is all the maintenance that's still required due to the ICE, plus complexity of adding the battery/EV side. If you're familiar with gas car maintenance, there's *none* of this: oil/filter change, radiator, timing belt, water pump, fuel pump/lines/pressure regulator, EVAP canister, MAF sensor, O2 sensor, muffler/exhaust/catalytic converter, spark plugs, air filter, tranny fluid/filter, thermostat, power steering fluid, EGR valve, pistons/cylinders/push rods/rockers/heads, ignition relay... I've had to repair every one of those things in my past vehicles (I checked my records). None. of. that. exists. Think golf cart simple (on the mechanical side.. software is obviously complex). For a non-Tesla, long trips are a problem. For Teslas, they have superchargers, making it only a minor issue. 95% of most people's driving is commuting, so this is not really a big deal (especially for a family with multiple cars). By the way, I hope you're putting stabilizer in your gas.

    --
    "Truth is not decided by majority vote" consensus gentium -- Norman Geisler
  22. One of those days... needs to be all the time. by theendlessnow · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You know, when you're at the grocery store gas station and it's taking "forever" to fill the tank.

    What hybrid and gas vehicles need is... very very slow pumping gas stations. I mean, what if it took you an hour to fill up. Suddenly, electric charging makes a lot of sense.

    So.. slow down the pumps. Create huge gas lines.

    I remember how such things changed cars forever back in the early to mid-70s.

  23. Re:Title? by atrex · · Score: 2

    Sounds like a moron salesman, try another dealership? "East of the Rockies" comprises a significantly large area of the country, and I can certainly tell you that there's plenty of Prius Primes on the road and in the Toyota showroom lot at the dealer I go to in PA. Worst case, pull a quote from their website and it should direct you to a dealer with units in stock.

  24. Re:Title? by dryeo · · Score: 2, Informative

    How much maintenance is needed the way the parent poster is using his IC engine at 3 tanks of gas over 16 months?
    With good oil, best antifreeze, it should be an oil change a year, coolant flush every 7 years, air filter perhaps once a decade and most of those other things in your list, almost never.
    The ideal is your using electric for most of your driving.

    --
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
  25. Re:Title? by atrex · · Score: 2

    Plug-in hybrids use no gas for normal day to day driving

    Not really. The gas engine, more complex transmission, gas tank and so on mean you lose a ton of battery space. So in a car that could support a 200mi range battery pack, you get a 30mi range battery pack. Which means unless your commuting is particularly short, you're going to regularly use some gas.

    Source: I own a Volt.

    As much as I hate Toyota's pathetic plug-in electric range, for many people that 25 mile range is sufficient to cover their daily commute. Toyota would be much better positioned to do so for more than the average person if they'd just double that range though. But, still, here's a bit of article to explain:

    https://itstillruns.com/far-am...

    If you drive long distances to your job each day, you are not alone. According to ABC News, the average American drives 16 miles to work each way, with a daily commute totaling nearly an hour round trip. While the average commute involves 30 minutes in the car each way, many people commute less than a mile to work each day. On the other hand, this number is tempered by "extreme commuters" who must drive more than 100 miles each way to work during the week.

  26. Re:Flawed logic by Askmum · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Just so we're clear, you're logic there is completely broken.

    I for one love to go on road trip vacations, and the time spent behind the wheel is more like 14-16 hours,

    Per day? You will one day fall asleep behind the wheel and probably kill yourself. No way you are not taking any rest stops. And during a rest stop you can charge your EV. 250 kW chargers are out there now and that means you can charge for the next 2 hour's drive in less than 10 minutes.
    And that charging speed will only get better in the future.

    (EV's are worthless for taxi's for example. And police cars, and buses, tractor-trailers, etcetc.)

    EV's are excellent for taxi's. Most taxi's don't drive that much. Schiphol taxi at Schiphol airport in the Netherlands has had 160 Teslas since 2014 and are now replacing them with new Teslas. Public transport contracts in the Netherlands more and more specify electric buses as mandatory.
    Sure, I'll give you tractor-trailers. They use lots of energy and have a driving pattern that is less suited for having to recharge. Police vehicles I'm not so pessimistic. With 500 km range and usually not being in high-speed pursuit, I don't see the problem.

  27. Re: Title? by Type44Q · · Score: 2

    The single biggest problem for hybrids is all the maintenance that's still required due to the ICE

    Do you know anything about the engines Toyota puts in the Prius? They require minimal maintenance and are, for practical purposes, virtually indestructible.

  28. Re: Title? by Cederic · · Score: 2

    once hybrid get some real power in the next 4-5 years

    erm. you could buy a Ferrari four years ago with a 789hp petrol engine that supplemented it with a 161hp electric one. If 950hp isn't real power then you need to stop looking at cars and think about a large cruise liner.

    Of course, you could also have bought the McLaren at the time with a mere 903hp or that little known brand from Germany were selling a hybrid Porsche with a 600hp petrol engine and 280hp electric engine.

    But lets say you wanted a practical comfortable car for a family of four. It's not as though Mercedes are selling a 367hp plug-in hybrid saloon right now. Unless you include their S class.

    Just what the fuck do you call real power and what are you expecting in 4 years time?

  29. Re: TBF by Type44Q · · Score: 2
    Making the batteries is.

    Try it sometime; you might even feel less stupid.

  30. Re: gas isn't going anywhere hybrid is fine by fluffernutter · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Why does every EV person parrot this bullshit? I have a path for you to walk barefoot that is lined with feathers 95% of the time but lined with nails 5% of the time. It's easy!

    --
    Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
  31. Re:Flawed logic by fluffernutter · · Score: 2

    Cold takes away 40% of the range, so could easily be stopping less than every 2 hours.

    --
    Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
  32. Re:Title? by sphealey · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Depends on your use case. More than 80% of USians live in urban or exurban areas and their driving pattern will follow a 95/5 pattern of short commutes vs long trips. Based on that pattern a plug-in hybrid will need a service visit once ever 18 months or so, although the owner may want to take it in a little more often to have it checked for minor software updates (the manufacturers only notify the owner for major updates, so there could be minors queued up).

    These doom--and-gloom scenarios are based on taking the worst characteristics of ICE engines from the 1970s and the worst characteristics of electric cars from 1910 and combining them into one great imaginary Vehicle of Horrors that doesn't actually exist. Owners of actual plug-in hybrids such as the Volt report that they work exactly as described, when used in typical metropolitan driving are a great improvement, and don't have any more maintenance problems or lemons than any other model line.

  33. Re:Title? by sphealey · · Score: 3, Informative

    Most post-2010 vehicles now state to change the oil when the oil use monitor says to do so, which could be a long time for all-highway driving in moderate weather. Longer than 6 months in any case. Those of us who grew up with dinosaur-era vehicles that were lucky to make it to 3000 miles without leaking or burning 3 quarts of oil have a hard time accepting this, but modern engine designers don't think that short oil change intervals are needed.

    As for the gas, the Chevy Volt at least keeps track of when you buy gasoline and if it calculates the gas is getting stale (at a minimum every 360 days) it will turn on the ICE engine and use up the tank.

  34. Re:Title? by sphealey · · Score: 3, Insightful

    - - - - - The single biggest problem for hybrids is all the maintenance that's still required due to the ICE, plus complexity of adding the battery/EV side. - - - - -

    All what maintenance? Current plug-in hybrids have longer maintenance intervals than current ICE cars, which themselves require virtually zero maintenance as we thought of it for 60s/70s/80s era cars. The dealership service department will tell you otherwise but if you read the recommended maintenance intervals in the manual for a post-2010 vehicle you will see that there is very little routine maintenance up to 24,000 miles and not much after that - even oil changes are now handled by the usage monitor not on-interval. And the plug-in hybrids put a very light load on the ICE engine in typical usage patterns.

  35. Re:Flawed logic by Headw1nd · · Score: 2

    I frequently have to drive roughly 600 miles (an 8 hour round trip) in a single day for my job. This does indeed involved refueling twice, if not more. People frequently take trips of 400 miles, involving one refueling stop, in a single day.

    Not only do EVs take longer to recharge, but at the moment there is considerable planning involved in making sure that you will be near an adequate charging station. This will improve as EVs become more common, but it is silly to pretend that EVs are currently as convenient as ICE or hybrids for long or medium distance travel.

  36. Re: Title? by orlanz · · Score: 2

    Yeah, this was a non-story. Toyota is betting on H fuel cells. Tesla is betting on Electric. Most of the rest are following the current "trend".

    Right now, for selling cars, the efficient route is in the hybrid area. And Toyota is all about efficiency. So that's where their general population sellers sit.

    Since they are investing in fuel cells, it doesn't make sense for them to handicap that investment by routing funds to electric. They have no need to shotgun approach their R&D. If fuel cells fail, they can always license the best of the others and improve on it.

    Should they bet on fuel cells... that's a different discussion. I personally think it is the right play. Personally I like electric and it will most likely win out but there are many players in this space. So licensing costs and market entry barriers will be low. However if fuel cells win, Toyota is the only player with significant investment. And they could win big in the market and win big by licensing. It's a high risk high return.

  37. Re: Title? by larryjoe · · Score: 2

    So you don't quite understand the meaning of "median."

    I love it when others point out my ignorance. It helps me to learn, although I would prefer an explanation of my ignorance rather than an unsupported assertion. So, the median commute time (albeit not median commute distance) I was referring to was data compiled from the US Census Bureau. I haven't personally verified the Census Bureaus's understanding of the term median, but I assume that they understand it.

  38. Re: gas isn't going anywhere hybrid is fine by jeff4747 · · Score: 2

    Because it isn't actually lined with nails 5% of the time.

    The vast majority of drivers don't go on road trips. So, demanding that all electric cars must support road trips as well as a gas car is silly.

    The few who need the extra power density (ie. towing, hauling), or virtually unlimited range will still buy gas. And that market is plenty large for car makers to continue to support it.

    But we don't need to support that segment with every vehicle.

  39. Re:Title? by BranMan · · Score: 2

    Someone else mentioned not letting your gas get too old - I'll second that.

    Dirk, I hope you are up on cars enough to know there is summer gas and winter gas - it is formulated differently in the winter so it does not freeze up on you. Fill your tank in the summer and you may end up with a frozen fuel line in January.

    Do you add fuel stabilizer at every fillup? If you don't now, maybe you should start. Or would a fuel additive like STP be better? Even I'm not really up on those.

    Or easier still - NOT fill the tank, but just put 5 gallons in at a time (unless on a road trip of course). Keep fresh fuel cycling through your tank.