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IDC's first ever forecast about Linux
NakNomik writes "IDC says "Other Operating Environments Will Have Trouble Keeping up with Linux's Growth" in its first ever forecast release about Linux. Read the release document over here. " Well, it's nice to see more people paying attention. And IDC gets the attention of the PHBs-for better or for worse.
What kind of icky font did they use on their article? My monitor is high quality, and I've got my fonts set for nice big letters, overriding whatever the document specifies even.
Their article came out in little tiny blocky half-letters which I could only read by cutting and pasting them into Word Perfect and actually changing the font.
Once I actually read the article I liked it. Too bad they don't provide the details for free on their web site. I'm really interested in how quickly Linux will break down the "big site" barrier. Linux (and Apache) are widely used for small sites, but if you check out the large sites like Sears, KMart, etc. you will see that Linux hasn't arrived yet. I think that the curve of growth in that narrower market will look different than the curve of growth in the entire market, and I would like to compare the two.
If tits were wings it'd be flying around.
IDC will only cover commercial distributions in their REPORTS ON OS SALES, but IDC does a lot of other analysis too, including reports on actual operating systems usage and deployment plans, and on overall satisfaction etc.
So while their reports on Linux sales won't pick up the free downloads, and the guys that buy one RedHat CD and install it on 1000 clients, etc., their reports on actual usage WILL.
Sure, the report may cost 1.5k a shot, but it's a lot cheaper than doing the research in-house (and very few companies are of the size to even consider doing that, much less on a regular or timely (or reliable) basis).
If your not quick your likely to be crushed by the upcoming avalanche of new apps, drivers, investments, useless add-ons, etc...
Look at it this way, business people tend to be risk averse. Like cows. They'd rather stick with the slightly brown grass rather than risk their necks climbing the fence to get to the untouched pasture on the other side. But once someone shows them a break in the fence -- once they see the herd headed that way in droves -- nothing can stop them even if it means busting the fence into splinters. These people pay companies like IDC large sums of money to show them where the breaks in the fence and green grass are.
IDC just told the world that there is a large gate (name Linux) and that there are hundreds of acres of untouched grass on the other side of it. Microsoft has been pissing on the PC OS field for so many years that most of the grass is dead and they've horded what's left for themselves. Other vendors are starved to the point of near-death. Futhermore, they know that if they find a morsel of grass they'd better keep quiet about it or Microsoft will come either take it or piss on it.
Now here is Linux, a beautiful pasture full of tall, green, delicious grass. Microsoft can't control this pasture because Microsoft starts to shrivel whenever it leaves it's own fence, and it's too large for Microsoft to ever piss on even half of it. The choice for the bovine business community is clear.
People, get OUT OF THE WAY, or these half-starved MicroRefugees will trample you in the effort to stake out their claim in the new territory first. The circle is broken (i.e., Vendors don't develope drivers/apps for the platform, because there are no users. Users don't migrate to the platform because there are no drivers/apps.) IDC has said that LINUX is where the growth is, and that is where the money will be invested. Good-bye MicroShit.
Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
It's also part of the same corporate structure as International Data Group (possibly a subsidiary of them?), which publish Computerworld, PC World etc., and IDG gets a lot of the material they use for ther magazines for IDC...
We are an R&D department.
Even if you don't code, you should at least send bug reports or suggestions to coders. That's how software gets better.
I think that they're missing a lot, especially when you consider the ease of installing Debian by FTP. That said, they're probably counting new users of Debian, among others, who buy from Cheapbytes, and what they're trying to count is probably not necessarily the user base but the growth. So their methadology might not be entirely suspect.
Most corporations (pretty much everywhere I've ever worked - a half-dozen large companies, plus a mid-size university) only buy one or two sets of media and install all boxes off those. Or they forgo media entirely and use their LAN. People that buy CD's are generally home users.
To the common users, looks and ease of use may be the only features they recognized. For Linux we have the Gnome/KDE projects which I believe given time (1-2 years) will be on-par with Windows.
Suppose we've reached that state, what I'm not sure is will users switch platform just because there is an equivalent alternative? I've used this thing for past 5 years and it is working fine, why should I switch? As we know, technical superiority is not a gauranteed pull. Linux may be free but when the market share is at risk, MS may be willing to give away Windows for free too.
So, for example, attacking what the users recognize, the Gnome/KDE move forward with cool 3D desktop, somebody added speech or handwriting recognition, and so on. If we've something that makes Windows look antiquated, we'll be more successful in luring away users.
Posted by Mike@ABC:
/. readers know that Linux is on the rise. That's why this seems like such a non-event. But IDG doesn't write these reports for you folks, nice as you are. They're writing them for IT managers, CIOs, and businessmen, some of whom might not be all that familiar with Linux. This report, and those pretty nifty numbers, will make the suits sit up, take notice, and think about adding Linux into their network mix.
Sure,
In other words, this is good stuff. This puts Linux on par with Solaris, Windows NT, etc., not only in performance (where it already is), but also in the minds of people who may have had doubts before.
While it's nice to see that they're predicting good growth for Linux, I think their numbers are skewed as a result. The fact that you can download Linux for free isn't going to effect the numbers much because most people will still prefer to have their software on a CD. I think what will effect the numbers far more is that when a commercial distribution is purchased it can easily and legally be used on an unlimitted numer of computers, so companies that buy Linux are going to buy one distribution per company (or division if they're big) rather than one distribution per processor. So I would expect Linux's impact on the OS market to be seen more in the shrinking market share of other OSes rather than in its own ballooning market share since the market is inherently smaller when you're not restricted to a per processor license. I'm curious as to whether their report takes this into account (although, I'm not curious enough to shell out the 1.5k for the report).
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Free P2P Backup, Windows & Linux
They're only counting "commercial" units of Linux shipped. This probably doesn't include places like Cheapbytes which FTP Linux distributions and sell them themselves. And of course, this doesn't include people who FTP it for themselves.
I, for one, remember the days when FTP was the only way you could get Linux, and it's stuck with me. Out of the 20-30 machines I've put Linux on, I've never bought a commercial boxed set, so I guess those machines aren't counted.
I'm not saying that they _should_ be counting the FTP/Cheapbytes/etc. installations of Linux (how would they?), but keep it in mind. Growth will be more than they think.
Good post. I used to work for fortune 50 company here in Dallas. Data like this was used all the time for product development decisions even though we all (I mean ALL incl the people making the decisions) new they pulled the forecast out of their behind. It somehow made us all feel better using someones elses BS, and it had a fair amount of CYA attached to it. I agree that this kind of info is Very important.
Help fight continental drift.
At first I thought Linux would be a good sized wave. It's gonna be more like a tsunami...
What does PHB mean?
How many people do you think installed Win95/98 on a machine without plunking down $89.95?
How many people do you think installed Solaris on a machine without plunking down $109.95?
How many people do you think installed DOS on a PC w/o buying it?
Let's face it, SW piracy rates are huge. Having a free, legal alternative is less of an impact
than you might think. Any way you measure units will be controversial, it's usually just better to
be consistent.
Looking at the size of the source distribution of Linux 1.2 and 2.2 I think it should be able to grow at 25% per year easily. ;-)
hello!?
he's talking about growth in the *market* size, not the source code.
sheesh.
I've got it working in a beta of XFree86 4.0. No, I can't give it to you. It's got some real problems, such as dog-slow performance, and many Xapplications have real trouble with true fractional spacing, which is one of the main reasons to use antialiasing. In other words, Netscape doesn't work. Neither do GTK+ based apps.
Did I mention it's slow? EVERYTHING is rendered as an image, so your hardware's font acceleration can't be used. It probably won't be ready in time for the XFree86 4.0 release, but when XF86 4.0 comes out, look for it in the contrib/ section.
--jon. Postel is dead. May we all mourn his, and our, loss.
More than a Windows-like interface means Linux needs more client side applications. I hope IDC's forecast will build up a positive feedback loop in attracting more application ports. A major stumbling block is MS-Office.
Sometimes I think even having most applications ported may not be enough as old habits are hard to kick. To lure common Windows users to switch platform (for market share sake), Linux needs to have something that surpass Windows.
Anyone with half a sense of addition can look at the statistics and tell you that. It's not so much growth that matters though, it's overall market share.
I think you are right about the lack of client side applications. But, you don't realy need to surpass anybody with those applications.
I've realized something over the years, people are kindda stupid. If you sell them a pile of shit that looks good, or that has a recognized name attached to it, they will by it, even if your competitor offers high quality products.
Take Beta vs VHS. Beta was a supperior machine. Take Apple vs IBM (in the older days). Apple has a better machine (I know, I switched from an apple II to a 80086, and even though my Apple I cost less, it was faster).
What needs the most work, to my opinion, is the look of certain applications. For us, it doesn't matter, but for users who don't know any better, looks might be the only feature they can recognize.
Although I hate Microsoft (and I have been boycoting them for over a year now), I must admit, they have a very nice office suit. This is to me the main reason that more companys stay with MS. I don't see anything Windows has to offer to a company that linux can't provide (and in most cases do better).
Papi
- Chernobyl used windows
Pointy-Haired Boss, as in the Dilbert cartoon strip.
/.ed-like symptoms right now.
It's an interesting example of how jargon catches on. It couldn't have been more than a few months ago that I first saw it in the newsgroups in reference to the cluelessness of IS/IT decision makers, but IIRC the acronym appeared within days of the first time I saw the full expression used, and has now become almost commonplace.
I'm wondering whether it has made it into the New Hacker's Dictionary, but it's suffering
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
The article looks great in lynx!
They are into prophesy.
They have a knack of being wrong. Try astrology or just flip a coin, the predictions will be no worse than IDC.
IDC is a major corp research firm.
/. like we do.
Reasonably respected from what I've seen.
The reason they are important is they are
a major source of info for the big bosses
who don't have the time or inclination to
read
sheesh yourself
;-)
didn't you see the
Bill Gates, eat your heart out. Linux will rule the world. Comforting, isn't it?
The best things in life are Microsoft-free.
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
Okay. Perhaps you being in the industry, so to
speak, can share some insight with us: how
accurate do IDC's predictions generally turn out
to be?
It also means that if you factor in the free downloads, and the fact that you can legally install the distributions you buy on more than one machine as long as you stick to the free parts, Linux overall market share will grow a lot faster than you'd expect from the numbers above.
Something I'm sure IDC's polls regarding actual OS usage will pick up...
To read the report, you have to dole out
1.5K. I'm amazed that one can sell "forcasting
reports" for so much money. Totally absured.
It's only ridiculous if it isn't researched well and/or alot of copies are ordered. I can't afford one, or afford to do research on what the profit margin for IDC's reports are, so can't tell you.
Strong success on the client, however, requires more than a Windows-like user interface
I really liked that quote. Does that count as a reason to put up another GUI vs. CLI fight? :)
"Commercial units shipped"?
Oops. They just missed counting the second-most-widely-used distribution.
And the easiest-to-maintain --- which is valuable both on the server and on the client & desktop.
Don't underestimate Debian.
"........and customer demand for expanded Linux research."
We have a R&D department?
Being a market analyst for a technology company, I can vouch for the importance of IDC (and other research firms). They are relied on by vendors and customers alike to understand:
1. market trends and directions
2. vendor market share
3. significance of news events
The firms get information from many sources including end-user surveys, company briefings, news reports, etc.. As with any source of information, it is important to get to know the people producing the information, compare the information with info from other sources, and season it with your own experience.
... if you're using a nutscrape browser. font
:O
scaling always makes fonts _waaaay_ too small on
the Unix side. Also, set your default fonts and
override document-specific fonts. I run 'New Century Schoolbook' at 14 point, and that same page looks just fine on a 1920x1200x24 Ultra10 monitor...
Now if I could only get antialiasing on Linux..
Well said, Mike.
It looks like they are fond of Gnome and/or KDE, but this article doesn't really say anything exciting, except perhaps that IDC has a clue, and has had one for awhile.
It's not even an issue of what they are counting and whether they are skewed. The big news here is that someone with credibility in PHB circles recognizes this trend. This is good news and bad news.
The good news is that hardware manufacturers and software houses who are trying to estimate the future market for their products will now have to take Linux into consideration. Someday some hardware manufacturers are going to announce Linux drivers for their equpitment just because it will be a significant market segment. MS now gets a free ride because manufacturers write drivers for their OS. How will this community react when and if drivers are made available by manufacturers? How will this community react if they're binary-only?
The bad news is that it now sets an expectation for future growth and a high one at that. Most of you remember the lambasting that NT got in the IT press when the actual sales came in well below analysts forcasts. Linux could grow at 20% per year, but be portrayed as a "failure" because it didn't grow at 25%. All the coders working on the kernel, the user interfaces and the application programs have their work cut out for them.
I have discovered a truly marvelous sig, unfortunately the sig limit is too small to contain i
I second the motion...good job, Mike!!!
The target market for people who sell marketing reports is small (probably 1 per company).
/. They tell the people who buy their story what's
For medium sized companies, paying $1.5K to a company is a lot better than hiring a marketing
guy/gal for $250K and spending another $250K gathering statistics from competitors that won't
give you the time of day and hoping you can believe the report.
All the info in these marketing reports eventually spill out to the public, but by investing your
$1.5K, you get the report before it spills out (which might be worth $1.5K to you... or not).
Marketing reports from companties like IDC and DataQuest, although are not considered accurate,
usually include both "top-down" reports (what your competitors expect) and "bottom-up" reports
(what your customers expect). As we know, expectation often creates reality. A small or
medium sized company has no hope of producing such a report.
In a way marketing reports are just like
important. After a while, by definition what they say is important actually is important (think
about it)... If you (and enough people like you) invest enough time reading it, it in a sense
creates a reality.
If you take IDC's predictions along with these:
CNN - Opinion: Why is Microsoft worrying about Linux? - March 24, 1999
I, Cringely: The Pulpit - Windows 2000, Users Zilch
one would think that a forward-looking company would be looking *very* hard indeed at
the possible advantages of making sure they have a "Linux presence", would one not?
It'll be intesting to see just how mind-bogglingly clueless some PHBs will prove themselves
to be.
damn. just re-read the release. I misinterpreted the thing on my first reading... Seems like they probably will count on the commercial shipments, rather than all installs. sigh.
They're probably going to need to revise their strategy, though, given Linux's "buy once. install many" strategy. That just isn't seen for the other operating system.s
Regardless: keep watching IDC.
Cheers.
So, if I start with 1,000 units the first year...
Second year I should sell the 1,000 units plus 25% of the 1,000 units.
1000 + (.25 x 1000) = 1250
Third year, I should sell the 1,250 units plus 25% of the 1,250 units
1250 + (.25 x 1250) = 1562.50
Fourth year, I should sell the 1562.5 units plus 25% of the 1562.5 units
1562.5 + (.25 x 1562.5) = 1953.125
In other words, doubling in a little over four years. That's pretty phenomenal considering IDC is only counting commericial sales and not downloads and cheap disks.
Bill Gates, eat your heart out. Linux will rule the world. Comforting, isn't it?
Ciao,
Arne Flones
Long Ship Software
Can anyone explain what the IDC is and why their recognition of Linux is so important?
Just kidding, but I don't have $1,500 to blow on whitepaper.
Clinton made me a Republican. Bush made me a Libertarian. Trump is making me question reality.
25% * 4 = 100% servers runnin linux in the next 4 years.
think it'll happen? ;)
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If Bill Gates had a nickel for every time Windows crashed...
International Data Corp. They do major forecasting of computer growth, and are one of the industry standards for information about the future.
Yeah, I'm that guy.
A number of people have mentioned that IDC is "only covering sales, so they won't see the real growth." ... untrue. IDC performs surveys of current installed base, future plans for installs, etc. So: they are covering the right numbers, independent of how the companies purchased those systems.
People have also complained about how they are "only counting the commercial distributions". Not true again. The IDC article said they would only cover the commercial distributions. That is a very different matter. It means they will provide data, reports, recommendations, etc for the commercial versions. This does mean they won't be recommending that people go and install Debian, but it does not mean that they won't be counting Debian installations in their surveys.
IDC is a very professional organization. They are also quite independent of vendors such as Microsoft because they are very well-paid to be independent. This means that we will be seeing some very positive, neutral coverage of our favorite little Operating System That Could.
The fact that people pay good money to read their reports should indicate just how well-respected they are. It also means that they now believe there is a market for reports on Linux (i.e. they will invest the time/resources into them because they believe they can sell them). That alone is wonderful news, even though we won't be able to read them.
This is great news, overall. Be happy.
So it won't show total Linux usage (but neither will Windows sales...), but it will show growth tendencies, at it will provide a reasonable number on the minimum number of Linux server and client install a year...
And I'm quite sure that they'll stress the fact that the real usage numbers are a lot higher in their reports.
It xfstt (X Font Server -- True Type)) has made my web browsing easier on the eyes.