The correction is happening, but there's obviously a lot of resistance to the new reality from people who bought at the peak. http://www.realtytrac.com/ tracks foreclosures, and there are a LOT. New records every month.
US Housing Crash Continues
It's A Terrible Time To Buy
Why?
1. Prices still disconnected from fundamentals. House prices are still far beyond any historically known relationship to rents or salaries. Rents are less than half of mortgage payments. Salaries cannot cover mortgages except in the very short term, by using adjustable interest-only loans. Anyone who buys now will suffer losses immediately, and for the next several years at least.
2. Buyers borrowed too much money and cannot pay the interest. Now there are mass foreclosures, and senators are talking about taking your money to pay for your neighbor's McMansion.
Banks happily loaned whatever amount borrowers wanted as long as the banks could then sell the loan, pushing the risk onto Fannie Mae (ultimately taxpayers) or onto buyers of mortgage backed securities. Now that it has become clear that a trillion dollars in mortgage loans will not be repaid, Fannie Mae is under pressure not to buy risky loans and investors do not want mortgage backed securities. This means that the money available for mortgages is falling, and house prices will keep falling, probably for 5 years or more.
A return to traditional lending standards will mean a return to traditional prices, which are far below current prices.
3. Interest rates increases. When rates go from 5% to 7%, that's a 40% increase in the amount of interest a buyer has to pay. House prices must drop proportionately to compensate.
For example, if interest rates are 5%, then $1000 per month ($12,000 per year) pays for a loan of $240,000. If interest rates rise to 7%, then that same $1000 per month pays for a loan of only $171,428.
Even if the Fed does not raise rates any more, all those adjustable mortgages will go up anyway, because they will adjust upward from the low initial rate to the current rate.
4. Extreme use of leverage. Leverage means using debt to amplify gain. Most people forget that losses get amplified as well. If a buyer puts 10% down and the house goes down 10%, he has lost 100% of his money on paper. If he has to sell due to job loss or an interest rate hike, he's bankrupt in the real world.
It's worse than that. House prices do not even have to fall to cause big losses. The cost of selling a house is 6%. On a $300,000 house, that's $18,000 lost even if prices just stay flat. So a 4% decline in housing prices bankrupts all those with 10% equity or less.
5. Shortage of first-time buyers. The percentage of San Francisco Bay Area households who could afford a median-price house in the region plunged from 20 percent in July 2003 to under 10 percent in 2006.
6. Surplus of speculators. Nationally, 25% of houses bought in 2005 were pure speculation, not houses to live in, and the speculators are going into foreclosure in large numbers now. Even the National Association of House Builders admits that "Investor-driven price appreciation looms over some housing markets."
7. Fraud. It has become common for speculators take out a loan for up to 50% more than the price of the house he intends to buy. The appraiser goes along with the inflated price, or he does not ever get called back to do another appraisal. The speculator then pays the seller his asking price (much less than the loan amount), and uses the extra money
"[blink] So borrowing directly causes inflation??"
Actually, it does. People used to save up for things, and pay cash for them. They could "afford" something if they had the cash for it. Nowadays, people don't buy a car, for example, they "buy a payment". They figure they can afford it if they can make the monthly payments.
This has enabled people to charge more for goods, such as homes and cars. This allows demand to rise faster than it would if there was no borrowing, and this inflated demand keeps prices artificially high.
Look at how quickly house prices drop when there's a credit crunch.
Better yet, to see the effect of borrowing on inflating prices for goods, look at how many people went into debt to buy big-screen TVs. "No money down 36 payments interest free" - gee, its only $5 a day, $35 a week... as opposed to "You want me to spend $5000 on a frigging TV? Are you NUTS??? - I'll wait for the price to come down."
Because of the no-money-down tactics, there was little incentive to discount big-screen TVs - the no-money-down tactic had created a huge demand for the product at a higher retail price, much more than a rational market would have. So "easy credit" encourages higher prices.
In the same way, tight credit lowers prices for everyone. For homeowners, for example, they can't just "borrow against future gains" any more, so this trickles into their budgets. They can't just borrow against their home to finance an SUV, so they get an econobox instead. Or if they look at that SUV, they also look harder at the monthly payments, because they can no longer "go to the well" and borrow their way out of trouble.
Watch what happens when all those ARMs (Adjustable-Rate Mortgages) reset at higher interest rates. You'll see a glut of housing on the market, at lower prices. Nows the time to be renting - not owning - a house, or any asset that will depreciate.
Banks now make most of their money from service fees, not lending.
It really gets me that someone is willing to pay an extra $5 a month for "overdraft protection." If you've got, say $500 in "protection", you're paying 1% per month for the "privilege" of a loan that you "might" take. And then charge you more fees and interest if you do avail yourself of it.
Nice scam. "Let me hold your money, and pay me $12/month, and if you need an extra $500, I'll lend it to you - with interest."
At ~$150 per annum, its better to just save up a grand to keep in the bank as a cushion. Plus, if you maintain a minimum balance, they waive deposit and withdrawal fees, and a certain # of checks, so you're saving $150/year - that's like a 15% return, tax-free.
The bank once deposited $80,000 into my sisters' account by mistake. She told them about it....the next week, it was "corrected" - it was then $234,000.00.
When she went in to tell them about it, they were having another problem --- the ATM was spitting out paper and money all over the place.
Audited doesn't mean perfect any more than ISO9001 means low level of defects.
Game rules cannot be patented. Try to find a single example. You won't be able to.
You can't use the trademarks (as I pointed out), but you can certainly make your own version of Monopoly, with your own trademarks. "Monopoly World by RotoDMonkey - better than the original Parker Brothers Monopoly" would pass, as there is zero chance of confusion. Change the artwork, the names and prices of the board squares, and maybe the layout a bit, and you're in business.
The rules and game play can stay absolutely the same, since they are not protected/protectable elements.
Umm, how does the embargo stop Cuba from growing its own food? Plants being self-replicating and all. Might Castro's repressive government have a wee bit to do with it? Plus pretty much everyone else ignores the embargo.
The inability to import tractor and truck parts - maintenance is a big problem. Florida is just a couple of hous away - importing from Canada or Europe takes a lot longer and costs more because of the distances involved.
Maybe fewer Cubans would be "leaving in rickety boats" if the embargo wasn't in place, making for all sorts of economic hardship?
Don't forget - Castro was being supplied by the US during the fight to overthrow the Batista regime (not the first, nor the last, time that the US has turned on a former ally once he's done what they want).
Of course, Cuba doesn't supply WalMart with tons of consumer goods like China does.
Every year since 1991, the United Nations General Assembly has passed a non-binding resolution condemning the embargo. The most recent condemnation took place on November 8, 2006, by a vote of 183-4, with the U.S., Israel, Palau, and the Marshall Islands voting against.[2] There is a movement in the United States Congress to lift these restrictions based on the argument they have not accomplished their stated goal of bringing democracy to Cuba, and may in fact have contributed to strengthening the Cuban government.
Although Cuba was a net food exporter prior to the revolution, food has been rationed in Cuba since 1962.[3] Because of the chronic food shortages that plague the island, Cuba has become a net food importer. As a consequence, exports of food and related materials from the U.S to Cuba were valued at $344 million in 2006.
So there you have it - the blockade is good for US trade, since it makes it harder for Cuba to be self-sufficient in food. Nice tactics, trying to "starve them out."
Chipzilla would be good, except that's what everyone calls Intel. I guess we'll have to settle for "CowboyNealOnAChip". Or "theChipThatCanActuallyRunJavaProgramsWithinTheUni versesLifetime"
What gets me is that that there's a dropdown in the entry form to choose your country, as well as asking you for your state or province, but the rules state:
WHO MAY ENTER: Open to all legal residents of the 50 United States (including the District of Columbia) who are 18 years or older in their respective US state at time of entry. Individuals employed by the University of Maryland, College Park. ("University") as faculty, exempt or non-exempt employees, and members of their immediate family or persons living in the same household, are not eligible to enter or win.
I hope their chip design is better thought out than the contest form.
Identifying the bodies? There would have been less question of whether they were dead or not.
All this is going to do is push people to offshore internet banking, like everything else.. and that way, they won't have Uncle Sam looking at whether they're gambling online.
"This will only effect retailers in the US right? If price floors are still illegal elsewhere, consumers could still tell they were being gouged and be able to purchase offshore."
Why not - they've offshored the manufacturing already.
This way, you get more incentive to bypass the importer. A FOrd tractor manufactured in China is less than 1/3 the price the Ford - New Holland dealer sells it in the US (same tractor, same assembly line, even same paint scheme). Even after taking into account shipping and final assembly, its still less than half price.
Unfortunately, nasty rumors can have serious consequences - like lost credibility, lost jobs, etc. Don't forget that we live in a society where many people can't qualify for jury duty because they have a bias to believe anything nasty - they figure that "if someone is arrested, they must be guilty of SOMETHING!"
Its the whole "where there's smoke, there MUST be fire" problem. There are people who can and will be assholes when they think they can get away with it, to make up for their own inadequacies. I prefer a "name it and shame it" approach to the less serious bullying, but once it crosses certain boundaries, sanctions should be imposed. Being forced to help clean up spam by training spam filters would be a good start.
"Cyberbullying has been the norm in usenet ngs for the longest time. It's time the 'poor little college kid' on facebook got hazed as well..."
A lot of the people on Facebook are younger than college, and Facebook is indexed by the major search engines. Regardless of age, once a rumor gets out there, there's no way to "fix it." At least in print media, they're supposed to print a retraction (which they usually bury on page 19)... but if it will make you feel any better, why not post your slashdot login info, and we'll all help you get your cyber-bitch-slap freak on.
Seriously, saying its okay is like saying that everyone should cut people off in traffic because road rage has been going on for years...
Of course, if you're sending someone sms messages to bug them, you're already a candidate for the special olympics.
The idea for a game is not protected by copyright. The same is true of the name or title given to the game and of the method or methods for playing it.
Copyright protects only the particular manner of an author's expression in literary, artistic, or musical form. Copyright protection does not extend to any idea, system, method, device, or trademark material involved in the development, merchandising, or playing of a game. Once a game has been made public, nothing in the copyright law prevents others from developing another game based on similar principles.
You can make your own version of Bejeweled, right down to the name. You can't copy the logo artwork (they can register the logo) or the game images - you're on your own there. Popcap ought to pop a few 'ludes before they pop a gasket.
There's no reason someone can't also distribute the software in another country (like Cuba, Syria, Canuckistan (Canada), Germany, France, wherever...) The "license" you agree to is not an exclusive license.
Contributor Grant of License. You hereby grant to Red Hat, Inc., on behalf of the Project, and to recipients of software distributed by the Project:
* (a) a perpetual, non-exclusive, worldwide, fully paid-up, royalty free, irrevocable copyright license to reproduce, prepare derivative works of, publicly display, publicly perform, sublicense, and distribute your Contribution and such derivative works; and,
* (b) a perpetual, non-exclusive, worldwide, fully paid-up, royalty free, irrevocable (subject to Section 3) patent license to make, have made, use, offer to sell, sell, import, and otherwise transfer your Contribution and derivative works thereof, where such license applies only to those patent claims licensable by you that are necessarily infringed by your Contribution alone or by combination of your Contribution with the work to which you submitted the Contribution. Except for the license granted in this section, you reserve all right, title and interest in and to your Contributions.
The internet has been known to route around damage, you know...
"I knew my business was people-ready the day I dumped all Microsoft products and switched to linux. No more worries about people complaining about viruses in emails or attachments, no more rebooting."
The response page:
"
Thanks!
Thanks for posting! We'll give your post a quick once-over and get it up on the site shortly.
"
Maybe its time to demand better service. My cable connection went out this winter because a 5-alarm fire down the street burned through the wiring (most people also lost power). They restored service the next day, and there were a few temporary outages while they took the opportunity to upgrade the local infrastructure. The time before that was because I moved.
The cable modem is always on - my IP changes maybe once a year, if that. Running a home server in my case is as simple as just leaving the machine on when I leave for the office...
I have a hosting account already. However, lets face it - remembering to load stuff onto a remote server can be a real PITA, especially if what you want is sitting on your home box, which is turned off because you figured you had everything you need on the shared hosting box.
Then there's the convenience of being able to ssh in and do whatever I want.
And being able to run stuff that exceeds the shared hostings per-process memory limit (twiki, for example, requires 32 megs).
Lastly, not having to worry that Microsoft or Google or anyone else is "collecting stats" or "doing research".
... or leave your home linux or bsd box on and have it text message you when its IP changes (about once a year if you're on cable) and have a terrabyte of raid5 storage available, as well as ftp, http (if your ISP blocks port 80, listen on another port), ssh, etc for an initial investment of ~$350.00 for 3 x 400 gig hds.
Its not like you have to have this set up on your fastest box - you're limited by your upload speed, so drag that obsolete sub-gigahertz duron or celery out and put it back to work.
... or do you really want Microsoft (or google, or AOL, or anyone else) to hold your files for you?
They might as well - its not like they can then just stick it on a production model and sell it, since its already been over-stressed. Any failure post-production would bring HUGE lawsuits.
I first started hearing about "managed code" when people started talking about "code signing" for scripting languages. It had nothing to do with DOT.NET at the time.
In non-Windows and mixed environments, managed code is sometimes used more generally to refer to any interpreted programming language.
Managed refers to the relationship between the program and the runtime environment. It is specified that at any point of execution, the runtime may stop the executing program and retrieve information specific to its current runtime state.
Java is managed code. So is perl. So is python. So is php. So is javascript. Come to think of it, SQL and stored procedures also meet the definition, as per the following:
An application program that is executed within a runtime environment (software) installed in the same machine. The application cannot run without it. The runtime environment provides the general library of software routines that the program uses and typically performs memory management. It may also provide just-in-time conversion from source code to executable code or from an intermediate language to executable code. Java, Visual Basic and.NET's Common Language Runtime (CLR) are examples of runtime environments. In addition, a DBMS may include a runtime environment for its programming language.
Pascal beat them all when it popularized "comile to pcode" (1973), beating SQL by a year.
Slashdot Mirror
The correction is happening, but there's obviously a lot of resistance to the new reality from people who bought at the peak. http://www.realtytrac.com/ tracks foreclosures, and there are a LOT. New records every month.
Check out the headlines from sites like http://housingdoom.com/
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
"[blink] So borrowing directly causes inflation??"
Actually, it does. People used to save up for things, and pay cash for them. They could "afford" something if they had the cash for it. Nowadays, people don't buy a car, for example, they "buy a payment". They figure they can afford it if they can make the monthly payments.
This has enabled people to charge more for goods, such as homes and cars. This allows demand to rise faster than it would if there was no borrowing, and this inflated demand keeps prices artificially high.
Look at how quickly house prices drop when there's a credit crunch.
Better yet, to see the effect of borrowing on inflating prices for goods, look at how many people went into debt to buy big-screen TVs. "No money down 36 payments interest free" - gee, its only $5 a day, $35 a week ... as opposed to "You want me to spend $5000 on a frigging TV? Are you NUTS??? - I'll wait for the price to come down."
Because of the no-money-down tactics, there was little incentive to discount big-screen TVs - the no-money-down tactic had created a huge demand for the product at a higher retail price, much more than a rational market would have. So "easy credit" encourages higher prices.
In the same way, tight credit lowers prices for everyone. For homeowners, for example, they can't just "borrow against future gains" any more, so this trickles into their budgets. They can't just borrow against their home to finance an SUV, so they get an econobox instead. Or if they look at that SUV, they also look harder at the monthly payments, because they can no longer "go to the well" and borrow their way out of trouble.
Watch what happens when all those ARMs (Adjustable-Rate Mortgages) reset at higher interest rates. You'll see a glut of housing on the market, at lower prices. Nows the time to be renting - not owning - a house, or any asset that will depreciate.
Banks now make most of their money from service fees, not lending.
It really gets me that someone is willing to pay an extra $5 a month for "overdraft protection." If you've got, say $500 in "protection", you're paying 1% per month for the "privilege" of a loan that you "might" take. And then charge you more fees and interest if you do avail yourself of it.
Nice scam. "Let me hold your money, and pay me $12/month, and if you need an extra $500, I'll lend it to you - with interest."
At ~$150 per annum, its better to just save up a grand to keep in the bank as a cushion. Plus, if you maintain a minimum balance, they waive deposit and withdrawal fees, and a certain # of checks, so you're saving $150/year - that's like a 15% return, tax-free.
Royal Bank of Canada.
Yeah ... right.
The bank once deposited $80,000 into my sisters' account by mistake. She told them about it ....the next week, it was "corrected" - it was then $234,000.00.
When she went in to tell them about it, they were having another problem --- the ATM was spitting out paper and money all over the place.
Audited doesn't mean perfect any more than ISO9001 means low level of defects.
You can't use the trademarks (as I pointed out), but you can certainly make your own version of Monopoly, with your own trademarks. "Monopoly World by RotoDMonkey - better than the original Parker Brothers Monopoly" would pass, as there is zero chance of confusion. Change the artwork, the names and prices of the board squares, and maybe the layout a bit, and you're in business.
The rules and game play can stay absolutely the same, since they are not protected/protectable elements.
That's nothing - pity the person born on February 29th ... who only gets a birthday once every 4 years.
Maybe fewer Cubans would be "leaving in rickety boats" if the embargo wasn't in place, making for all sorts of economic hardship?
Don't forget - Castro was being supplied by the US during the fight to overthrow the Batista regime (not the first, nor the last, time that the US has turned on a former ally once he's done what they want).
Of course, Cuba doesn't supply WalMart with tons of consumer goods like China does.
The embargo has failed; it is counter-productive, and stupid. Admit it, get over it, remove it, and move on - the rest of the world has. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo _against_Cuba
So there you have it - the blockade is good for US trade, since it makes it harder for Cuba to be self-sufficient in food. Nice tactics, trying to "starve them out."
Chipzilla would be good, except that's what everyone calls Intel. I guess we'll have to settle for "CowboyNealOnAChip". Or "theChipThatCanActuallyRunJavaProgramsWithinTheUni versesLifetime"
What gets me is that that there's a dropdown in the entry form to choose your country, as well as asking you for your state or province, but the rules state:
I hope their chip design is better thought out than the contest form.
Well, they were able to identify some people's body parts http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/2/story.cfm?c_id =2&ObjectID=10409027
Identifying the bodies? There would have been less question of whether they were dead or not.
All this is going to do is push people to offshore internet banking, like everything else .. and that way, they won't have Uncle Sam looking at whether they're gambling online.
"This will only effect retailers in the US right? If price floors are still illegal elsewhere, consumers could still tell they were being gouged and be able to purchase offshore."
Why not - they've offshored the manufacturing already.
This way, you get more incentive to bypass the importer. A FOrd tractor manufactured in China is less than 1/3 the price the Ford - New Holland dealer sells it in the US (same tractor, same assembly line, even same paint scheme). Even after taking into account shipping and final assembly, its still less than half price.
Unfortunately, nasty rumors can have serious consequences - like lost credibility, lost jobs, etc. Don't forget that we live in a society where many people can't qualify for jury duty because they have a bias to believe anything nasty - they figure that "if someone is arrested, they must be guilty of SOMETHING!"
Its the whole "where there's smoke, there MUST be fire" problem. There are people who can and will be assholes when they think they can get away with it, to make up for their own inadequacies. I prefer a "name it and shame it" approach to the less serious bullying, but once it crosses certain boundaries, sanctions should be imposed. Being forced to help clean up spam by training spam filters would be a good start.
"Cyberbullying has been the norm in usenet ngs for the longest time. It's time the 'poor little college kid' on facebook got hazed as well..."
A lot of the people on Facebook are younger than college, and Facebook is indexed by the major search engines. Regardless of age, once a rumor gets out there, there's no way to "fix it." At least in print media, they're supposed to print a retraction (which they usually bury on page 19) ... but if it will make you feel any better, why not post your slashdot login info, and we'll all help you get your cyber-bitch-slap freak on.
Seriously, saying its okay is like saying that everyone should cut people off in traffic because road rage has been going on for years ...
Of course, if you're sending someone sms messages to bug them, you're already a candidate for the special olympics.
Copyright law doesn't extend to the rules of a game, just the artwork, etc. - the "tangibles."
For the disbelievers, here's what the U.S. Copyright oOfice has to say about games:
You can make your own version of Bejeweled, right down to the name. You can't copy the logo artwork (they can register the logo) or the game images - you're on your own there. Popcap ought to pop a few 'ludes before they pop a gasket.
There's no reason someone can't also distribute the software in another country (like Cuba, Syria, Canuckistan (Canada), Germany, France, wherever ...) The "license" you agree to is not an exclusive license.
The internet has been known to route around damage, you know ...
Click here to get to their "post your own story" page. http://peopleready.federatedmedia.net/prpost
"I knew my business was people-ready the day I dumped all Microsoft products and switched to linux. No more worries about people complaining about viruses in emails or attachments, no more rebooting."
The response page:
" Thanks!
Thanks for posting! We'll give your post a quick once-over and get it up on the site shortly. "
Somehow, I'm skeptical.
Maybe its time to demand better service. My cable connection went out this winter because a 5-alarm fire down the street burned through the wiring (most people also lost power). They restored service the next day, and there were a few temporary outages while they took the opportunity to upgrade the local infrastructure. The time before that was because I moved.
The cable modem is always on - my IP changes maybe once a year, if that. Running a home server in my case is as simple as just leaving the machine on when I leave for the office ...
I have a hosting account already. However, lets face it - remembering to load stuff onto a remote server can be a real PITA, especially if what you want is sitting on your home box, which is turned off because you figured you had everything you need on the shared hosting box.
Then there's the convenience of being able to ssh in and do whatever I want.
And being able to run stuff that exceeds the shared hostings per-process memory limit (twiki, for example, requires 32 megs).
Lastly, not having to worry that Microsoft or Google or anyone else is "collecting stats" or "doing research".
... or leave your home linux or bsd box on and have it text message you when its IP changes (about once a year if you're on cable) and have a terrabyte of raid5 storage available, as well as ftp, http (if your ISP blocks port 80, listen on another port), ssh, etc for an initial investment of ~$350.00 for 3 x 400 gig hds.
Its not like you have to have this set up on your fastest box - you're limited by your upload speed, so drag that obsolete sub-gigahertz duron or celery out and put it back to work.
"Prior to treatment they showed signs of hyperactivity, purposeless and repetitive movements."
Sounds more like someone surfing the net for pr0n, accompanied by the sound of one hand clapping ...
They might as well - its not like they can then just stick it on a production model and sell it, since its already been over-stressed. Any failure post-production would bring HUGE lawsuits.
I first started hearing about "managed code" when people started talking about "code signing" for scripting languages. It had nothing to do with DOT.NET at the time.
And as usual. Microsoft thinks they're the only game in town.
"Managed code" is any code that is "managed" by a run-time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_code
Java is managed code. So is perl. So is python. So is php. So is javascript. Come to think of it, SQL and stored procedures also meet the definition, as per the following:
http://computing-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/ managed+code
Pascal beat them all when it popularized "comile to pcode" (1973), beating SQL by a year.