1. One audit group to ensure system continues to conform to spec. 2. One test team to ensure all that backup stuff actually can restore according to SLAs. 3. One legal/management group to ensure SOX compliance each quarter. 4. One capacity planning group to track/handle trends and headroom. 5. One data center build team to bring new farms online as needed. 6. One decom team to manage end-of-line for obsolete resources. 7. One architecture team to either spread your vision or show you how you're doing it wrong. 8. Ten other groups you've never heard of doing things you think you don't need.
Also, the math in Mebane's 2BL paper seems a bit wrong: he provides and uses a table of 2nd digit expected frequencies, but this table is only valid if the underlying numbers pass the 1BL test; so, if he ignores the first significant digit, he can't blindly use the second significant digit's frequency table and get a real significance number. It's actually worse than this: even passing 1BL doesn't mean you can use the 2BL frequency table.
You don't seem to understand how modern "capitalism" works. When your boss said "we don't have the budget," he meant exactly that. If you push for more money, or even just ask, if they're really antsy, you'll be filing for unemployment.
Budgets are funny things, you can get them moved by several hundred percent when people see they need to be changed.
At most of my previous jobs, at year's end, management sat me down and told me what my comp for the year was. Every year, it was "we'd like to pay more, but the pool is limited, and we got you as big a share as we could."
Each time I handled in my resignation, the magical "fixed budget" suddenly had money for immediate counter-offers at 1.5X. Then "let me call my boss, we can do 2X easily."
All these quant systems seem to do is increase volatility at the expense of the market establishing a general direction.
WTF? If a market has a "general direction" it is broken. You think it would be better if people stood around saying "IBM is at $100 now, the general direction will take it to $110 in a week, so let's just sit around doing nothing?"
"General direction" is what realtors use to convince people to buy houses: "don't worry, it is going up."
The mark of a good market is that it has no shills and the aggregate view is that any investment in the market is fairly priced.
So, what's wrong with this picture? You buy/sell things that you expect to move by 1% in the next 20 minutes, and you then magically trade out of them after 20 minutes? How exactly are you figuring exit prices on things that have an implied instant annual volatility of 70%+? What's your cost to hedge your overall market exposure? How much slip will you take to scale this to the point you can actually make real money?
Academics seem to love writing papers about excess returns. They rarely can actually convert their ideas into actual money-making strategies. I guess there is a reason it takes quants on Wall St years to learn the real market to the point they are actually taking home $X00,000/year
One-way trips only half as much? More like 1/100th.
Apollo was on the edge of the possible: everything was maxed out to just get a few hundred pounds of rocks back to earth: huge 3 stage rocket, complex LEM + command module on the far end to hold energy costs down, piles of heat shielding, etc, for a difficult insertion back into the earth's orbit. Plus, as you say, all the junk needed to keep your automation systems (people) alive.
I'm fed up with this lame argument. Sure, you can't create a commercial quality game in a week, but you can write cooler, better, software than at any time in the past.
Hell, yesterday I wanted to explore some ideas about optical flow and motion tracking. Downloaded ffmpeg, wrote 120 lines of python, and now I'm making movies that pretty clearly show if my ideas are good or bad. In the old Apple II world, I'd still be at the "get a sprite on the screen" stage after 48 hours.
If the kid wants to write code, find him some hackers to talk with (user groups, local uni, etc) they'll show him the tools and he'll go wild. If he doesn't want that, well, bummer, let him play video-games (most people are not hackers.)
I think the point is more that most small-town Chinese restaurants in the USA have a completely off-the-shelf menu (hot & sour soup, egg-drop, wanton, etc, General Tso's chcicken, crispy fried beef, etc.) You see unexpected dishes, and wonder if a) these are serious cooks who have set up in the middle of nowhere, or b) this is not a profit-maximizing enterprise.
Kind of like in New York when you go into a bodega to buy a pick of cigs and notice all the canned food in the store is covered in dust. Obviously not a store that is trying to maximize profit based on moving visible retail goods.
You don't need definitions. Here's a pretty typical statement:
We are committed to a work environment in which all persons are treated with dignity and respect. It is our policy to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, religion, age, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, citizenship, disability, marital and civil partnership and union status, pregnancy (including unlawful discrimination on the basis of a legally protected pregnancy or maternity leave), veteran status or any other characteristic protected by law. We expect that all relationships among persons in the workplace will be business-like and free of bias, harassment and violence.
So, if your bat-sex thing is really part of the job, fine. If it's harassing a coworker, not fine.
The case is pretty simple: don't do it in private if you can do it in public; don't do it to person X even you won't do it to person Y; don't do it in private if it could be misconstrued.
Very true. I've seen creeps and crazies on both sides.
Public fora are best for discussing published papers: talking genital warts at a professional group lunch is distasteful but above board; hitting a female colleague in her office with the same info may invite trouble. The question is always "Is info X in venue Y aimed to non-professionally affect person Z?" It's impossible to tell, of course, but a good start is a "narrowly-tailored" definition like the courts use for law: if it was constructed to narrowly advance academic debate, it's fine, if it just adds non-academic noise it's more like being a dick.
I'm not shitting on academic freedom: go wild, but just ask yourself if you are advancing academic knowledge or just bullying a person.
Academic freedom doesn't mean you get to show "academic" pictures of erect penises to the girl scientist you want to sleep with, or pictures of genital warts to the girl scientist you feel is a slut. Feel free to hold a meeting on the topic and show the pics to those who turn up, but don't abuse your position. Oh, and "I showed it to other people and they weren't offended" is not an excuse: if it's a topic for the public, show it in public.
Any decent institution will take the view that you are part of the elite, attractive to many people, so you should be just fine plying your pick-up skills with 99.9999% of the population, just don't even get into a position with the remaining.0001% in which you can be accused of using your position to pressure/annoy/bully someone. There is a reason professors keep open doors when young coeds drop by for help. There is a reason why dentists don't work on 16 yr old girls' teeth without someone else in the room. There is a reason why HR at major Wall St firms give the speech to new MDs: "congratulations, you are successful, do not even talk about sex to anyone in your reporting chains."
That's why most professional offices define the culture of the workplace extremely explicitly: don't be a creep, don't be a dick, don't be a bully. The penalty for failure is termination.
So, feel free to talk about fruit bat sex in a public arena, give talks on it if you want, send email about it and ask for responses, just don't go into someone else's office uninvited and start showing them pictures of bats having vaginal+oral sex.
Magic claims about "academic freedom" don't cut it either: you are in a position of power, not a position of absolute power. Screwing your undergrads is not an exercise in freedom, it's an exercise in coercion. Showing physics profs bulletwound pictures (because it's just physics in action) can just be you being a dick.
1. BP used an inapplicable methodology for initial flow rate estimates 2. BP is injecting tons of dispersants at depth (so the oil will not reach the surface for years) 3. BP denied access to scientists wanting to do flow measurements,
I'm guessing BP knows they are closer to 50Kbbl/day than 5Kbbl/day.
Cartoons and comics are designed for kids: simplify the unimportant, expose the cool ideas. They are going to be learning more from a Japanese or Spanish cartoon than from their father reading them a "good" book. My bi-lingual 5 year old still asks to watch Hikaru No Go at times.
Hell, my oldest kid taught herself to read in a few months from Calvin & Hobbes: once she wanted to know what the joke was, she went from "reading is hard" to "reading is easy" is about 5 hours.
Slashdot Mirror
Fair point, but now add some time from:
1. One audit group to ensure system continues to conform to spec.
2. One test team to ensure all that backup stuff actually can restore according to SLAs.
3. One legal/management group to ensure SOX compliance each quarter.
4. One capacity planning group to track/handle trends and headroom.
5. One data center build team to bring new farms online as needed.
6. One decom team to manage end-of-line for obsolete resources.
7. One architecture team to either spread your vision or show you how you're doing it wrong.
8. Ten other groups you've never heard of doing things you think you don't need.
Sheesh, you get semiconductors, lasers, quantum bomb detectors and god knows what else, and you want a stargate right now?
Why would China give a damn about stabilizing/invading Afghanistan to get lithium?
The only pundit who even raised this point was some Fox news talking head. Rebuttals from anyone who was halfway educated were of the form "WTF?"
China is using imports for raw materials (cheaper today than ever,) and its foreign policy is focused on economics (and Africa strategically at that.)
Correct. 10% means exactly that.
Also, the math in Mebane's 2BL paper seems a bit wrong: he provides and uses a table of 2nd digit expected frequencies, but this table is only valid if the underlying numbers pass the 1BL test; so, if he ignores the first significant digit, he can't blindly use the second significant digit's frequency table and get a real significance number. It's actually worse than this: even passing 1BL doesn't mean you can use the 2BL frequency table.
Budgets are funny things, you can get them moved by several hundred percent when people see they need to be changed.
At most of my previous jobs, at year's end, management sat me down and told me what my comp for the year was. Every year, it was "we'd like to pay more, but the pool is limited, and we got you as big a share as we could."
Each time I handled in my resignation, the magical "fixed budget" suddenly had money for immediate counter-offers at 1.5X. Then "let me call my boss, we can do 2X easily."
How are you going to trade out if there is no market in 20 minutes? E.g. trading halted, trades later reversed, your stop is filled at 35% down.
One 20% loss makes up for a lot of .05% gains.
WTF? If a market has a "general direction" it is broken. You think it would be better if people stood around saying "IBM is at $100 now, the general direction will take it to $110 in a week, so let's just sit around doing nothing?"
"General direction" is what realtors use to convince people to buy houses: "don't worry, it is going up."
The mark of a good market is that it has no shills and the aggregate view is that any investment in the market is fairly priced.
So, what's wrong with this picture? You buy/sell things that you expect to move by 1% in the next 20 minutes, and you then magically trade out of them after 20 minutes? How exactly are you figuring exit prices on things that have an implied instant annual volatility of 70%+? What's your cost to hedge your overall market exposure? How much slip will you take to scale this to the point you can actually make real money?
Academics seem to love writing papers about excess returns. They rarely can actually convert their ideas into actual money-making strategies. I guess there is a reason it takes quants on Wall St years to learn the real market to the point they are actually taking home $X00,000/year
Yeah, but the premise is rather like asking if pesticide inventors would like to have a discussion with cockroaches.
Hey, I just do rockets. I can figure the cheapest way to get mass X to position Y with velocity Z.
Dust? Ask the guys who build targets (I think they are called civil engineers or something)
On running the math a bit more: getting 1kg of payload mass to the moon with a soft landing is more like 1/1000 the cost of the round trip.
So, $2B for an automated moon-base is pretty reasonable.
Yes, I am a rocket scientist.
One-way trips only half as much? More like 1/100th.
Apollo was on the edge of the possible: everything was maxed out to just get a few hundred pounds of rocks back to earth: huge 3 stage rocket, complex LEM + command module on the far end to hold energy costs down, piles of heat shielding, etc, for a difficult insertion back into the earth's orbit. Plus, as you say, all the junk needed to keep your automation systems (people) alive.
I'm fed up with this lame argument. Sure, you can't create a commercial quality game in a week, but you can write cooler, better, software than at any time in the past.
Hell, yesterday I wanted to explore some ideas about optical flow and motion tracking. Downloaded ffmpeg, wrote 120 lines of python, and now I'm making movies that pretty clearly show if my ideas are good or bad. In the old Apple II world, I'd still be at the "get a sprite on the screen" stage after 48 hours.
If the kid wants to write code, find him some hackers to talk with (user groups, local uni, etc) they'll show him the tools and he'll go wild. If he doesn't want that, well, bummer, let him play video-games (most people are not hackers.)
Yeah, that's why the sane firms have rules on accepting gifts. More than $50 or so once in a while, and you need sign-off before you can even show up.
I think the point is more that most small-town Chinese restaurants in the USA have a completely off-the-shelf menu (hot & sour soup, egg-drop, wanton, etc, General Tso's chcicken, crispy fried beef, etc.) You see unexpected dishes, and wonder if a) these are serious cooks who have set up in the middle of nowhere, or b) this is not a profit-maximizing enterprise.
Kind of like in New York when you go into a bodega to buy a pick of cigs and notice all the canned food in the store is covered in dust. Obviously not a store that is trying to maximize profit based on moving visible retail goods.
I wasn't there. You weren't there. Possible third party has made no statement.
You don't need definitions. Here's a pretty typical statement:
We are committed to a work environment in which all persons are treated with dignity and respect. It is our policy to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, religion, age, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, citizenship, disability, marital and civil partnership and union status, pregnancy (including unlawful discrimination on the basis of a legally protected pregnancy or maternity leave), veteran status or any other characteristic protected by law. We expect that all relationships among persons in the workplace will be business-like and free of bias, harassment and violence.
So, if your bat-sex thing is really part of the job, fine. If it's harassing a coworker, not fine.
The case is pretty simple: don't do it in private if you can do it in public; don't do it to person X even you won't do it to person Y; don't do it in private if it could be misconstrued.
Very true. I've seen creeps and crazies on both sides.
Public fora are best for discussing published papers: talking genital warts at a professional group lunch is distasteful but above board; hitting a female colleague in her office with the same info may invite trouble. The question is always "Is info X in venue Y aimed to non-professionally affect person Z?" It's impossible to tell, of course, but a good start is a "narrowly-tailored" definition like the courts use for law: if it was constructed to narrowly advance academic debate, it's fine, if it just adds non-academic noise it's more like being a dick.
I'm not shitting on academic freedom: go wild, but just ask yourself if you are advancing academic knowledge or just bullying a person.
Academic freedom doesn't mean you get to show "academic" pictures of erect penises to the girl scientist you want to sleep with, or pictures of genital warts to the girl scientist you feel is a slut. Feel free to hold a meeting on the topic and show the pics to those who turn up, but don't abuse your position. Oh, and "I showed it to other people and they weren't offended" is not an excuse: if it's a topic for the public, show it in public.
Any decent institution will take the view that you are part of the elite, attractive to many people, so you should be just fine plying your pick-up skills with 99.9999% of the population, just don't even get into a position with the remaining .0001% in which you can be accused of using your position to pressure/annoy/bully someone. There is a reason professors keep open doors when young coeds drop by for help. There is a reason why dentists don't work on 16 yr old girls' teeth without someone else in the room. There is a reason why HR at major Wall St firms give the speech to new MDs: "congratulations, you are successful, do not even talk about sex to anyone in your reporting chains."
That's why most professional offices define the culture of the workplace extremely explicitly: don't be a creep, don't be a dick, don't be a bully. The penalty for failure is termination.
So, feel free to talk about fruit bat sex in a public arena, give talks on it if you want, send email about it and ask for responses, just don't go into someone else's office uninvited and start showing them pictures of bats having vaginal+oral sex.
Magic claims about "academic freedom" don't cut it either: you are in a position of power, not a position of absolute power. Screwing your undergrads is not an exercise in freedom, it's an exercise in coercion. Showing physics profs bulletwound pictures (because it's just physics in action) can just be you being a dick.
Oh, you were replying to the moron troll. Sorry, never mind.
Slow down. Take a deep breath. Reread the OP.
Hmm, given that
1. BP used an inapplicable methodology for initial flow rate estimates
2. BP is injecting tons of dispersants at depth (so the oil will not reach the surface for years)
3. BP denied access to scientists wanting to do flow measurements,
I'm guessing BP knows they are closer to 50Kbbl/day than 5Kbbl/day.
All good advice.
Cartoons and comics are designed for kids: simplify the unimportant, expose the cool ideas. They are going to be learning more from a Japanese or Spanish cartoon than from their father reading them a "good" book. My bi-lingual 5 year old still asks to watch Hikaru No Go at times.
Hell, my oldest kid taught herself to read in a few months from Calvin & Hobbes: once she wanted to know what the joke was, she went from "reading is hard" to "reading is easy" is about 5 hours.