Tesla has repeatedly failed their promises, for example that of 6000 model 3 cars/weekly by end of June,
Do you not even read what you link? Literally, the very first sentence:
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) is aiming to ramp up production to 6,000 Model 3 cars per week by the end of June to reach its weekly goal of 5,000 and allow for a margin of error
Are you totally obvious to the fact that every major car maker and many smaller ones all have EV in their line ups NOW or due in the next 1-2 car cycles?
Yes, and they're an embarrassment by comparison, in terms of either volume, price point/capabilities, or both.
There's a reason that nearly half a million people lined up to wait ages for a Model 3 and not a Focus Electric, whether you understand why or not.
There's this weird short notion that they can't seem to get past, that SG&A 1) scales up linearly with production volume (it doesn't), and 2) happens instantaneously with sales, with no expenses coming in advance (it doesn't, and they do).
Some of the shorts even act like R&D scales up linearly with production volume, which is even sillier.
It did not make the lines for those 8000 cars in the past year. Don't confuse momentum with acceleration. GM's current infrastructure was accumulated over decades. And it can't just magic its way into suddenly becoming an EV-producing infrastructure. That takes extensive capital investment and many years. The thing that Tesla's been doing, and its "competition" has not been.
Some of the competition has finally started to pony up the necessary cash to compete. So game on.... several years from now when said investments actually start to pay off. In the meantime...
They're confusing the "winding down" of Solar City's old low-margin installation business with the "winding down" of what Solar City's debt was actually accumulated to fund (Gigafactory 2), which is very much not being wound down.
Stock prices are not based on what Tesla's year-old plans for the present time, any more than they're based on Tesla's two-year-old plans for the present time (which were less optimistic than reality). Stock pricing is based on current expectations, not old ones.
Yes, there's 15k in transit right now. But do you think there's any other manufacturer out there who wouldn't do likewise? GM's up next to hit their limit, do you honestly think they won't try to time it?
sounds like they have done the same thing as last quarter, realised they could not meet the number so put on a heap of extra shifts in the final week so they could get it across the line for the numbers.
Meanwhile, in the real world, despite shorts insisting that last quarter's weekly numbers (2k) would be an unsustainable burst rate, they maintained it for weeks, all the way up to the next scheduled downtime. Then they got back up to 3,5k and maintained that until the next set of upgrades. Now they're at 5k. But if you really think the 5k is a burst, by all means short that.
The layoffs will be a benefit in Q3. They're a hit in Q2 due to severance.
Correct that the Q2 delivery numbers will be low. Which is actually a very important thing, to keep the tax credit from expiring in Q2. That credit is potentially worth half a billion dollars to Tesla's customers, and some proportion will be used in buying more options. Options are high margin - sometimes almost pure profit. You want it to expire at the start of a quarter, not the end of one. Not like any manufacturer would ever admit to trying to "time" it.
500k Model 3 per year will still require significant expansion; current production is 250k Model 3 per year (+100k S+X). However, they've clearly found a way to expand cheaply. Tesla's last announced plan was to hit 6k in Q3. Doesn't sound particularly difficult given how much they scaled up in Q2.
Nobody, not Tesla or any serious analyst, expects them to be positive in Q2. But more and more analysts appear to be agreeing with Tesla's forecast (widely panned by analysts a couple months ago) of being sustainably profitable later this year. Tesla believes it'll be Q3.
There's no need for more cash, so the topic of loans or stock offerings is right out.
As a reminder to anyone reading this who disagrees with anything written above: you have a tool to financially profit off your disagreement with me - short selling. Unless you don't like earning money or something... or unless you don't actually believe what you preach. I mean, even if you had to put it on your credit card, how could you turn down such a rate of return?
"Hair shirt" is a common saying, getting 1 1/2 million hits on Google. It dates back to the use by early Christians of uncomfortable shirts made from human or animal hair as a penance. In modern parliance, it means punishing yourself by accepting discomfort or inconvenience in order to achieve some end.
People want a car, not a hair shirt. Don't get me wrong, Bolt is fine for a subset of users. But don't pretend that it's a replacement for the Model 3.
Solar City acquired its debt load working on the Solar City Gigafactory (Gigafactory 2). It had, and has under Tesla, continually been transitioning from its old, low margin business model to this.
If you have an issue with the facts, explain them, but these are the facts. You don't build the largest solar plant in the US with pocket change.
Which isn't remotely what happened here. A dozen solar install locations are not "20% of their business operations".
Tesla's solar division (formerly SolarCity) is transitioning from being a (low margin) installer of other people's solar panels into a solar roofing product manufacturer.
Meanwhile, in the real world, Tesla sells four times more Model 3s in the US each month than the highest selling non-Telsla BEV. But don't worry your head about that.:)
SpaceX has been, and continues to, save US taxpayers massive amounts of money versus a formerly literal monopoly, ULA.
Hyperloop is a curious "scam" in that they released Hyperloop Alpha for free and did not attempt to pursue it, let alone raise money off of it. It's part of the long term plans of Boring Company, but low on their priority list.
Boring Company has no public funding, and has not sought public funding.
I strongly recommend people go to Sprung's website and read about these things, they're really impressive. They can be heavily insulated; some are used in the high arctic. And one in Vanuatu survived a Cat 5 hurricane with only minor exterior damage.
Slashdot Mirror
Flatly contradicted by the quarterly reports, but hey, this is Slashdot, make up whatever you want. :)
Yeah, about that...
About that...
Do you not even read what you link? Literally, the very first sentence:
Yes, and they're an embarrassment by comparison, in terms of either volume, price point/capabilities, or both.
There's a reason that nearly half a million people lined up to wait ages for a Model 3 and not a Focus Electric, whether you understand why or not.
Yes, that's a description of the solar roofing product.
That's exactly what they're doing: using Tesla stores to sell the products, reducing duplication overhead.
Why are you quoting Tesla describing exactly what they're doing to argue that they're doing something else?
You do realize that probably half of Slashdot's population posts in the evening, don't you?
There's this weird short notion that they can't seem to get past, that SG&A 1) scales up linearly with production volume (it doesn't), and 2) happens instantaneously with sales, with no expenses coming in advance (it doesn't, and they do).
Some of the shorts even act like R&D scales up linearly with production volume, which is even sillier.
It did not make the lines for those 8000 cars in the past year. Don't confuse momentum with acceleration. GM's current infrastructure was accumulated over decades. And it can't just magic its way into suddenly becoming an EV-producing infrastructure. That takes extensive capital investment and many years. The thing that Tesla's been doing, and its "competition" has not been.
Some of the competition has finally started to pony up the necessary cash to compete. So game on.... several years from now when said investments actually start to pay off. In the meantime...
They're confusing the "winding down" of Solar City's old low-margin installation business with the "winding down" of what Solar City's debt was actually accumulated to fund (Gigafactory 2), which is very much not being wound down.
Right. Because that's totally a material difference in the path to profitability.
Stock prices are not based on what Tesla's year-old plans for the present time, any more than they're based on Tesla's two-year-old plans for the present time (which were less optimistic than reality). Stock pricing is based on current expectations, not old ones.
Yes, there's 15k in transit right now. But do you think there's any other manufacturer out there who wouldn't do likewise? GM's up next to hit their limit, do you honestly think they won't try to time it?
Meanwhile, in the real world, despite shorts insisting that last quarter's weekly numbers (2k) would be an unsustainable burst rate, they maintained it for weeks, all the way up to the next scheduled downtime. Then they got back up to 3,5k and maintained that until the next set of upgrades. Now they're at 5k. But if you really think the 5k is a burst, by all means short that.
The layoffs will be a benefit in Q3. They're a hit in Q2 due to severance.
Correct that the Q2 delivery numbers will be low. Which is actually a very important thing, to keep the tax credit from expiring in Q2. That credit is potentially worth half a billion dollars to Tesla's customers, and some proportion will be used in buying more options. Options are high margin - sometimes almost pure profit. You want it to expire at the start of a quarter, not the end of one. Not like any manufacturer would ever admit to trying to "time" it.
500k Model 3 per year will still require significant expansion; current production is 250k Model 3 per year (+100k S+X). However, they've clearly found a way to expand cheaply. Tesla's last announced plan was to hit 6k in Q3. Doesn't sound particularly difficult given how much they scaled up in Q2.
Nobody, not Tesla or any serious analyst, expects them to be positive in Q2. But more and more analysts appear to be agreeing with Tesla's forecast (widely panned by analysts a couple months ago) of being sustainably profitable later this year. Tesla believes it'll be Q3.
There's no need for more cash, so the topic of loans or stock offerings is right out.
As a reminder to anyone reading this who disagrees with anything written above: you have a tool to financially profit off your disagreement with me - short selling. Unless you don't like earning money or something... or unless you don't actually believe what you preach. I mean, even if you had to put it on your credit card, how could you turn down such a rate of return?
Yes. Please keep up. :)
"Hair shirt" is a common saying, getting 1 1/2 million hits on Google. It dates back to the use by early Christians of uncomfortable shirts made from human or animal hair as a penance. In modern parliance, it means punishing yourself by accepting discomfort or inconvenience in order to achieve some end.
It's also an econobox that can't supercharge.
People want a car, not a hair shirt. Don't get me wrong, Bolt is fine for a subset of users. But don't pretend that it's a replacement for the Model 3.
If you had actually been paying attention to me you'd know I live in Europe, and the Eurospec Model 3s aren't yet available, so how would that be me?
It makes sense to focus your business on manufacturing your domestic products.
Solar City acquired its debt load working on the Solar City Gigafactory (Gigafactory 2). It had, and has under Tesla, continually been transitioning from its old, low margin business model to this.
If you have an issue with the facts, explain them, but these are the facts. You don't build the largest solar plant in the US with pocket change.
Which isn't remotely what happened here. A dozen solar install locations are not "20% of their business operations".
Tesla's solar division (formerly SolarCity) is transitioning from being a (low margin) installer of other people's solar panels into a solar roofing product manufacturer.
Yep, I'm up about 25% in a matter of months. Very tempting to buy more today :) How are your short positions doing?
Look at the username.
Then glance over at the "please don't feed the trolls" sign.
Meanwhile, in the real world, Tesla sells four times more Model 3s in the US each month than the highest selling non-Telsla BEV. But don't worry your head about that. :)
SpaceX has been, and continues to, save US taxpayers massive amounts of money versus a formerly literal monopoly, ULA.
Hyperloop is a curious "scam" in that they released Hyperloop Alpha for free and did not attempt to pursue it, let alone raise money off of it. It's part of the long term plans of Boring Company, but low on their priority list.
Boring Company has no public funding, and has not sought public funding.
Yep. :)
I strongly recommend people go to Sprung's website and read about these things, they're really impressive. They can be heavily insulated; some are used in the high arctic. And one in Vanuatu survived a Cat 5 hurricane with only minor exterior damage.
Because battery prices weren't close to their raw material costs. Even today they're well above their raw material costs.