The execs are right to worry about this kind of thing. All technology adaptation follows the same general life pattern. Right now consoles are now a developed industry... They make changes and improvements however they are incremental changes not revolutionary.... The problem is the stage after this is obsolescence. They are right to worry. Maybe not this year or next but sometime within ~30 years (my guess) there will be no need for consoles and their market will die... The execs know this, however to maximize proffit they need to know when this is happening. The problem is not that people will stop wanting games but right now people are willing to pay a premium to pay games. Once technology develops a little further this will not be the case. If moore's law holds up within 20 years your toaster will have enough computational power to power the most intensive game imaginable witout breaking a sweat (over exaggeration but you get my point) once this happens the market for "gaming machines" will be like the market for calculators (basic kind not graphing/integrating)
Thats kinda interesting as there has always been that spring/love thing going on. It to me makes sense a lot of babies that are from less educated individuals would be a result of spring time flings (when hormones are high) as opposed to long term planning.
A) I agree with much of what you said. I also did not accuse republican politicians of anything. I accused R pollsters and the insurance industry of working together to mislead everyone...including republican politicians.
B)I agree with you it is much better to look at trends. So my point was that although the trend has been downwards for the democrats. The slope for Rasmussen and Strategic vision and has been very different than the slope of the over all trend.
C) If you already agree that Strategic Vision tends to be overly biased is it that big if a leap to think a few else have been. I am honestly mostly concerned with Rasmussen who is one of the big names. He previously have been "close" to the norm but more recently he has gone on TV and publicly endorsed republican ideas and since than his polls have gone on to be more and more extreme.
"And I hate to tell you this... but on the health care issue (since you brought it up), Strategic Vision is not the ONLY one showing that it's losing traction" Please don't think you corrected me. I already stated that in my first post my point was their results have been much different than the downward trend of other pollsters.
To your last comment about crooks. I cant disagree more. Yes their are crooks in both parties. Ill point out how i think very very lowly of Max Bacus and Ben Nelson right about now. But for the most part I think they are good hearted power hungry people. The reason to me why "R" get labled as corrupt more often is due to the fact they general have some of the richest industrial friends.
"Yeah, you go ahead and cling to the belief that the insurance industry doesn't want the health care bill to go through"
You are right the insurance industry would stand to gain massively by that proposal. That's exactly why the liberal sect of the democratic party has been fighting that provision.
I would like to point out that the insurance industry is being very pragmatic they have a two tier battle plan. They don't want the bill to pass however if it dose pass they want to have things like that put in
That provision was added to some of the bills to "tempt" republicans into voting for it as several Republicans have explicitly said they would like to see that included.
As far as "I'd certainly like to see some numbers regarding who the insurance industry as a whole is contributing to." The money has been flowing quite rapidly into the conservative arm of the democratic party. Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu and Max Baucus have all goten heavy donations since this whole thing has started (from insurance companies). That is not to say that the republicans have not been getting a lot of money from the insurance companies. (That goes without saying) So to some it up Republicans are continuing to get good pay checks,(the usual) however some conservative democrats are now also getting paid for their services(Newish). Just for your info many progressives want political blood for this, Ben Nelson and Max Baucus and to a much lesser extent Mary Landrieu are the one thing that is standing in the way of progressives' holy grail. For that many of us want political revenge at any cost.
When you are making decisions based on public opinion and the differance between 52% and 48% makes the difference between whether you keep your elected position. Imagine what the difference would be between 60% and 40%. I'm not sure of the exact reasoning for these kinds of polls 20% seems to be about the stranded margin of error. I imagine it has some aspect of what the state of the art is in scientific statistic estimation theory is. In which case 57% to 20% difference would like using 1850's technology compared to the technology we will have in 2010. At the very least Strategic Vision is run by idiots. If not they are intentionally misleading the public.
Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. Meaning when a Republican politician wants a poll about a particular set of data they give Strategic Vision some money and they do a poll. This can be for either internal polling to give them and idea how the "battle" is going or for general consumption. And yes Strategic Vision is big enough to matter, but they are just the tip of the iceberg how misleading "R" pollsters
In general there are some Republican some Independent and some Democrat pollsters however all of their results are supposed to be scientific the idea is dose a poll for internal consumption really help if tells you that you are going to win easily on election day only to have to be a landslide against you?The answer is no.
The reason why this is dangerous is multi fold. 1) Due to the supposed scientific nature it has been used to make public policy decisions 2) It can influence peoples opinions. 3) It can influence a senator's or some other politicians choices while they are in power.
Here is a perfect example of this. A certain Republican senator from Maine is considering if she should support a public option, so she wants to see what the citizens of her state think about the topic. She hires Strategic Vision to do a poll for her. Strategic Vision comes back and says 60% of your state's citizens are against it. She gose "Wow I guess im not supporting that bill" In reality its 60% the other way. From this the senator decides to not support the bill and it dose not pass.
I will be as blunt as possible. I am accusing Rasmussen, Strategic Vision and other Republican pollsters of deliberately lying to the American people in order to alter the public debate. If you follow the math they have been consistently off for years. If you want to just look at the last election cycle Rasmussen etc all had the results a lot tighter than the results on election day. This could just be poor polling on their part but I will offer exhibit B
Since health care reform has been a topic in the news the difference between the several Republican pollsters and "everyone else" has been steadily growing. I firmly believe that the insurance industry has been paying these pollsters to lower their numbers for the democrats to push them to drop health care reform.
Yes the Democrats poll numbers have been sliding somewhat across the board. However if you look at the data from the Republican sources. They have the numbers significantly different than those of the "Independent and Democratic" pollsters.
Over all I want to say this "dishonest polling" helps no one. It may help push a certain agenda temporarily but It can also cause those who support it to loose elections..... Look at the results from 2008 the REPUBLICAN PARTY IS BEING MISLEAD BY ITS OWN POLLSTERS AND IT IS COSTING THEM ELECTIONS
"Exploding iPhones may be a thing of the past. Researchers at Taiwan's Industrial Technology Research Institute have developed a new polymer, " Exploding batteries have been a thing of the past for years already. This may as well say "Horse and buggies may now be a thing of the past due to the new honda civic comeing out this year"
Dont do it. My school had exactly what your trying to do and they got rid of it because it cost an arm and a leg to do it right. I personally like the feature but they basically needed a dedicated room and production crew to do it. (They did it for a while so students could video commute to class). For me as a TA and a student the best solution has been simply use a projector which can project a piece of paper and scan the paper later and post it online. If you really want some kind of video. The best option ive seen is a laptop with power point hooked up to a projector and a external microphone. If you want a tablet esq feature get a usb drawing pad for 100 bucks....itll save you an arm and a leg.... Its funny around here you see a lot of old professors using tablets etc however most of the younger professors use the old fashioned tech. I think part of growing up with all the technology is realizing when not to use it..
Except they arnt. The state they are using to generate the revenue is Washington the state they are CLAIMING they use to generate the revenue is Nevada. This is pretty much a clear cut case of tax evasion. Its like I work in New York but i claim income tax in NJ because the taxes are lower. Pretty blatantly illegal. They should get their back taxes and slap them with a 100% over due fee to net them an extra billion.
Dont worry I honestly believe that the moment that we discover another intelligent species we will have instant world peace. On our world at least... We will simply have the first worlds war. But thankfully we will have generations of experience at war. We will teach them peace loving aliens a lesson or two about technology.
Fast breeders are not even close to being cost effective. Each kwh costs around 2-3 times as much if you use a fast breeder. . Yuka mountain-esq ideas are the only economical solution.
As far as I know thats if we switch 100% of our energy to nuclear power. Secondly thats with current technology. Just like we constantly find new sources of oil that were previously not usable the same would go for this. On the upside It is even possible to re use old fuel since it will be saved..ish... in the future. Current reprocessing tech is crap and is a horrible horrible idea..
A significant chunk has been taken out of that red tape recently. There is a new certification a reactor can get. A "type certification" meaning that each reactor dose not have to go though a major design review and for example once the first AP1000 reactor is certified all following AP1000 reactors are certified assuming no design change.
I am very pro nuclear power but i am NOT pro reprocessing. Reprocessing has been shown in studies to be both A) A lot more expensive than storage and B) A HUGE SECURITY RISK. Now it may be good to spend some money researching reprocessing tech but at this point its just a poor idea to implement.
Well ill be blunt I like this current administration. I am however like you not a huge fan of their stance on this. But the situation is a little different that you make it out to be. The problem is not that thy are very much against Nuclear Power, its that they are only slightly for it. They should be pushing a lot harder IMO
Countires have to use what they have.... We also have some of the best wind power resources in the world and some of the best nuclear fule resources in the world. We can do all of this.
A major design feature of the AP1000 and other designs is the that it is "mass produced and mass permited". The main goal of this is that it should remove cost over runs like that. It may be that it ends up costing twice the amount we figured it would but we should know after the first 1 or two are made. Also if you properly apply air pollution costs CO2 etc The rates of 22 to 44 cents per kwh becomes reasonable.
Who the hell is going to pay 8% a day? A major utility would not be caught dead with a 8% interest loan like that. They are not average consumers and this is not your car loan. and 1.8 mill a day can probably easily be made back if cap and trade is properly implemented and subsidies are properly given.
There should be naturally occurring chemical differences between those with cancer and without its a matter of find them. But my guess is that they may only be detecting those individuals who smoke vs those who dont. They may have scaled according to that, or not. Who knows but I wouldn't bet the farm on this being a break though.I hope I'm wrong and this saves lives.
Ya the guys a jerk. But he also gave millions to heat the houses of poor North Eastern US citizens when some individuals were dieing from the cold due to the fact they could not afford to heat their homes. While GB2 did nothing except let US citizens suffer. Ya it was a PR stunt but it was a stunt that worked. I and many others consider Chavez less of a threat than GB2 even though GB2 is now out of office.
The Indians and Russians may call it the"Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft" but they are wrong it will not be a 5th generation fighter. Simply put if you use the F-22 as a yardstick there is no other publicly disclosed aircraft that comes close to qualifying as a 5fth generation aircraft the closest you really get is generation 4.5. The F-35 dose not really even come close. A comparison would be the Seawolf ssn and the Virgina ssn. The Virgina class submarine was designed and built at a later point than the Seawolf. However you could easily say the Seawolf is a superior boat The Seawolf and the F-22 were designed to take The Russians at the hight of their power and after the USSRs failure there is no need/very little need for the top shelf equipment. So we are left with the F-35 and Virginia good in the own right but not nearly as bad-ass as the F-22 and The Seawolf. Yes I know the F-35 and F-22 fill different roles so a direct comparison is a little off, but there is a reason why we wont sell the 22 to any other nation not even our closes allies. So back to my point. This fighter will not be a 5th generation aircraft. There is a quick way to tell when a true 5th generation aircraft comes out that isnt from the USA. The US air force would probably triple the number of 22's that they purchase.
Slashdot Mirror
The execs are right to worry about this kind of thing. All technology adaptation follows the same general life pattern. Right now consoles are now a developed industry... They make changes and improvements however they are incremental changes not revolutionary.... The problem is the stage after this is obsolescence. They are right to worry. Maybe not this year or next but sometime within ~30 years (my guess) there will be no need for consoles and their market will die... The execs know this, however to maximize proffit they need to know when this is happening. The problem is not that people will stop wanting games but right now people are willing to pay a premium to pay games. Once technology develops a little further this will not be the case. If moore's law holds up within 20 years your toaster will have enough computational power to power the most intensive game imaginable witout breaking a sweat (over exaggeration but you get my point) once this happens the market for "gaming machines" will be like the market for calculators (basic kind not graphing/integrating)
Thats kinda interesting as there has always been that spring/love thing going on. It to me makes sense a lot of babies that are from less educated individuals would be a result of spring time flings (when hormones are high) as opposed to long term planning.
A) I agree with much of what you said. I also did not accuse republican politicians of anything. I accused R pollsters and the insurance industry of working together to mislead everyone...including republican politicians.
B)I agree with you it is much better to look at trends. So my point was that although the trend has been downwards for the democrats. The slope for Rasmussen and Strategic vision and has been very different than the slope of the over all trend.
C) If you already agree that Strategic Vision tends to be overly biased is it that big if a leap to think a few else have been. I am honestly mostly concerned with Rasmussen who is one of the big names. He previously have been "close" to the norm but more recently he has gone on TV and publicly endorsed republican ideas and since than his polls have gone on to be more and more extreme.
"And I hate to tell you this ... but on the health care issue (since you brought it up), Strategic Vision is not the ONLY one showing that it's losing traction" Please don't think you corrected me. I already stated that in my first post my point was their results have been much different than the downward trend of other pollsters.
To your last comment about crooks. I cant disagree more. Yes their are crooks in both parties. Ill point out how i think very very lowly of Max Bacus and Ben Nelson right about now. But for the most part I think they are good hearted power hungry people. The reason to me why "R" get labled as corrupt more often is due to the fact they general have some of the richest industrial friends.
Holy crap you make yourself sound old ". I never thought that I would long for the post civil war years" what are you 150 years old now?
"Yeah, you go ahead and cling to the belief that the insurance industry doesn't want the health care bill to go through"
You are right the insurance industry would stand to gain massively by that proposal. That's exactly why the liberal sect of the democratic party has been fighting that provision.
I would like to point out that the insurance industry is being very pragmatic they have a two tier battle plan. They don't want the bill to pass however if it dose pass they want to have things like that put in
That provision was added to some of the bills to "tempt" republicans into voting for it as several Republicans have explicitly said they would like to see that included.
As far as "I'd certainly like to see some numbers regarding who the insurance industry as a whole is contributing to." The money has been flowing quite rapidly into the conservative arm of the democratic party. Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu and Max Baucus have all goten heavy donations since this whole thing has started (from insurance companies). That is not to say that the republicans have not been getting a lot of money from the insurance companies. (That goes without saying) So to some it up Republicans are continuing to get good pay checks,(the usual) however some conservative democrats are now also getting paid for their services(Newish). Just for your info many progressives want political blood for this, Ben Nelson and Max Baucus and to a much lesser extent Mary Landrieu are the one thing that is standing in the way of progressives' holy grail. For that many of us want political revenge at any cost.
"Nobody ever went broke overestimating the stupidity of the public" or something of that ilk
When you are making decisions based on public opinion and the differance between 52% and 48% makes the difference between whether you keep your elected position. Imagine what the difference would be between 60% and 40%. I'm not sure of the exact reasoning for these kinds of polls 20% seems to be about the stranded margin of error. I imagine it has some aspect of what the state of the art is in scientific statistic estimation theory is. In which case 57% to 20% difference would like using 1850's technology compared to the technology we will have in 2010. At the very least Strategic Vision is run by idiots. If not they are intentionally misleading the public.
Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. Meaning when a Republican politician wants a poll about a particular set of data they give Strategic Vision some money and they do a poll. This can be for either internal polling to give them and idea how the "battle" is going or for general consumption. And yes Strategic Vision is big enough to matter, but they are just the tip of the iceberg how misleading "R" pollsters
In general there are some Republican some Independent and some Democrat pollsters however all of their results are supposed to be scientific the idea is dose a poll for internal consumption really help if tells you that you are going to win easily on election day only to have to be a landslide against you?The answer is no.
The reason why this is dangerous is multi fold. 1) Due to the supposed scientific nature it has been used to make public policy decisions 2) It can influence peoples opinions. 3) It can influence a senator's or some other politicians choices while they are in power.
Here is a perfect example of this. A certain Republican senator from Maine is considering if she should support a public option, so she wants to see what the citizens of her state think about the topic. She hires Strategic Vision to do a poll for her. Strategic Vision comes back and says 60% of your state's citizens are against it. She gose "Wow I guess im not supporting that bill" In reality its 60% the other way. From this the senator decides to not support the bill and it dose not pass.
I will be as blunt as possible. I am accusing Rasmussen, Strategic Vision and other Republican pollsters of deliberately lying to the American people in order to alter the public debate. If you follow the math they have been consistently off for years. If you want to just look at the last election cycle Rasmussen etc all had the results a lot tighter than the results on election day. This could just be poor polling on their part but I will offer exhibit B
Since health care reform has been a topic in the news the difference between the several Republican pollsters and "everyone else" has been steadily growing. I firmly believe that the insurance industry has been paying these pollsters to lower their numbers for the democrats to push them to drop health care reform.
Yes the Democrats poll numbers have been sliding somewhat across the board. However if you look at the data from the Republican sources. They have the numbers significantly different than those of the "Independent and Democratic" pollsters.
Over all I want to say this "dishonest polling" helps no one. It may help push a certain agenda temporarily but It can also cause those who support it to loose elections..... Look at the results from 2008 the REPUBLICAN PARTY IS BEING MISLEAD BY ITS OWN POLLSTERS AND IT IS COSTING THEM ELECTIONS
"Exploding iPhones may be a thing of the past. Researchers at Taiwan's Industrial Technology Research Institute have developed a new polymer, " Exploding batteries have been a thing of the past for years already. This may as well say "Horse and buggies may now be a thing of the past due to the new honda civic comeing out this year"
Dont do it. My school had exactly what your trying to do and they got rid of it because it cost an arm and a leg to do it right. I personally like the feature but they basically needed a dedicated room and production crew to do it. (They did it for a while so students could video commute to class). For me as a TA and a student the best solution has been simply use a projector which can project a piece of paper and scan the paper later and post it online. If you really want some kind of video. The best option ive seen is a laptop with power point hooked up to a projector and a external microphone. If you want a tablet esq feature get a usb drawing pad for 100 bucks....itll save you an arm and a leg.... Its funny around here you see a lot of old professors using tablets etc however most of the younger professors use the old fashioned tech. I think part of growing up with all the technology is realizing when not to use it..
Except they arnt. The state they are using to generate the revenue is Washington the state they are CLAIMING they use to generate the revenue is Nevada. This is pretty much a clear cut case of tax evasion. Its like I work in New York but i claim income tax in NJ because the taxes are lower. Pretty blatantly illegal. They should get their back taxes and slap them with a 100% over due fee to net them an extra billion.
The reason only the "bad' are looking for nukes is just because all the democracies already have nukes... more or less. Note that is not a bad thing.
Dont worry I honestly believe that the moment that we discover another intelligent species we will have instant world peace. On our world at least... We will simply have the first worlds war. But thankfully we will have generations of experience at war. We will teach them peace loving aliens a lesson or two about technology.
They are more successful than HP calculators. As a MS/Phd engineering student I haven't seen a HP calculator in 6 years except at a store.
Fast breeders are not even close to being cost effective. Each kwh costs around 2-3 times as much if you use a fast breeder. . Yuka mountain-esq ideas are the only economical solution.
As far as I know thats if we switch 100% of our energy to nuclear power. Secondly thats with current technology. Just like we constantly find new sources of oil that were previously not usable the same would go for this. On the upside It is even possible to re use old fuel since it will be saved..ish... in the future. Current reprocessing tech is crap and is a horrible horrible idea..
A significant chunk has been taken out of that red tape recently. There is a new certification a reactor can get. A "type certification" meaning that each reactor dose not have to go though a major design review and for example once the first AP1000 reactor is certified all following AP1000 reactors are certified assuming no design change.
I am very pro nuclear power but i am NOT pro reprocessing. Reprocessing has been shown in studies to be both A) A lot more expensive than storage and B) A HUGE SECURITY RISK. Now it may be good to spend some money researching reprocessing tech but at this point its just a poor idea to implement.
Well ill be blunt I like this current administration. I am however like you not a huge fan of their stance on this. But the situation is a little different that you make it out to be. The problem is not that thy are very much against Nuclear Power, its that they are only slightly for it. They should be pushing a lot harder IMO
Countires have to use what they have.... We also have some of the best wind power resources in the world and some of the best nuclear fule resources in the world. We can do all of this.
A major design feature of the AP1000 and other designs is the that it is "mass produced and mass permited". The main goal of this is that it should remove cost over runs like that. It may be that it ends up costing twice the amount we figured it would but we should know after the first 1 or two are made. Also if you properly apply air pollution costs CO2 etc The rates of 22 to 44 cents per kwh becomes reasonable.
Who the hell is going to pay 8% a day? A major utility would not be caught dead with a 8% interest loan like that. They are not average consumers and this is not your car loan. and 1.8 mill a day can probably easily be made back if cap and trade is properly implemented and subsidies are properly given.
There should be naturally occurring chemical differences between those with cancer and without its a matter of find them. But my guess is that they may only be detecting those individuals who smoke vs those who dont. They may have scaled according to that, or not. Who knows but I wouldn't bet the farm on this being a break though.I hope I'm wrong and this saves lives.
Ya the guys a jerk. But he also gave millions to heat the houses of poor North Eastern US citizens when some individuals were dieing from the cold due to the fact they could not afford to heat their homes. While GB2 did nothing except let US citizens suffer. Ya it was a PR stunt but it was a stunt that worked. I and many others consider Chavez less of a threat than GB2 even though GB2 is now out of office.
The Indians and Russians may call it the"Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft" but they are wrong it will not be a 5th generation fighter. Simply put if you use the F-22 as a yardstick there is no other publicly disclosed aircraft that comes close to qualifying as a 5fth generation aircraft the closest you really get is generation 4.5. The F-35 dose not really even come close. A comparison would be the Seawolf ssn and the Virgina ssn. The Virgina class submarine was designed and built at a later point than the Seawolf. However you could easily say the Seawolf is a superior boat The Seawolf and the F-22 were designed to take The Russians at the hight of their power and after the USSRs failure there is no need/very little need for the top shelf equipment. So we are left with the F-35 and Virginia good in the own right but not nearly as bad-ass as the F-22 and The Seawolf. Yes I know the F-35 and F-22 fill different roles so a direct comparison is a little off, but there is a reason why we wont sell the 22 to any other nation not even our closes allies. So back to my point. This fighter will not be a 5th generation aircraft. There is a quick way to tell when a true 5th generation aircraft comes out that isnt from the USA. The US air force would probably triple the number of 22's that they purchase.