Citation not needed. Calculation does the trick. For the amount of components of a chip to double, their size has to reduce 1/sqrt(2) every 18 months. We are now at 32 nm. In 2020, we will be 10.5 * 12 = 126 months further, that makes 7 generations. so the feature size is then 1/(sqrt(2)^7) = 0.09 * 32 nm = 2.8 nm. It's highly unlikely that we can make patterns that small by then. There's also the question of diffusion of the components, and quantum effects to take into account.
I also talked about things turning out to be much easier than expected. But what is a prediction for the future worth if you can't predict even that? It's just speculation for fun, and dreaming about what a beautiful world this will be, and what a glorious time to be free.;)
IMO speculation about the future of technology is a waste of time. It always turns out very different from what was predicted, because some technologies that seem easy turn out to be (extreme) difficult, like flat TVs and nuclear fusion, and others turn out to much easier than expected. Besides the technical issues there are often changes in society that make the predictions about the future futile. Look at all the past predictions about the future back then, and what do you see? An extrapolation of the technology and mindset that was available at the time. So, predictions are fun, but please don't put any sort of value in them.
Let me add to that: suppose you get hit by a car. You survive but you are seriously wounded and rushed to a hospital. Chances are, the insurance company will not totally cover your hospital- and recovery expenses, so you have to pay for them yourself. You are broke after so many months, and you can't work anymore because of your injury. Are you now dumber than you were before, or just poor? And is everybody who has more stuff than you smarter than you? Think again dude.
You may have been modded Flamebait but I agree with you completely. The whole Afghanistan elections are a waste of time and effort. We should never have gone there.
I'm not sure if Windows XP and Windows 7 suck so much. Vista was a bit of a big mistake though;). But I never understood why MS doesn't widen its userbase by making software for other platforms.
If MS starts making software for other OS-es than thier own, they can live happily ever after, can't they? Its one but biggest money maker is its Office suite. If they port that to other OSes than Windows and OSX they will stay in business, if they do it right.
If you want to do something new that has to do with computers today, you should go into quantum computing. I gues QC is now where 'normal' binary computing was in the 1950s. Seriously exciting times are afoot!
In the article they were talking about 10 cents per card. But I guess you missed that when you read the article, no?;P I don't see whre you got the 500 from.
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Citation not needed. Calculation does the trick. For the amount of components of a chip to double, their size has to reduce 1/sqrt(2) every 18 months. We are now at 32 nm. In 2020, we will be 10.5 * 12 = 126 months further, that makes 7 generations. so the feature size is then 1/(sqrt(2)^7) = 0.09 * 32 nm = 2.8 nm. It's highly unlikely that we can make patterns that small by then. There's also the question of diffusion of the components, and quantum effects to take into account.
I meant forecasting the development of technology itself. For instance speculating on the far future of cellphones.
I also talked about things turning out to be much easier than expected. But what is a prediction for the future worth if you can't predict even that? It's just speculation for fun, and dreaming about what a beautiful world this will be, and what a glorious time to be free. ;)
IMO speculation about the future of technology is a waste of time. It always turns out very different from what was predicted, because some technologies that seem easy turn out to be (extreme) difficult, like flat TVs and nuclear fusion, and others turn out to much easier than expected. Besides the technical issues there are often changes in society that make the predictions about the future futile. Look at all the past predictions about the future back then, and what do you see? An extrapolation of the technology and mindset that was available at the time. So, predictions are fun, but please don't put any sort of value in them.
Let me add to that: suppose you get hit by a car. You survive but you are seriously wounded and rushed to a hospital. Chances are, the insurance company will not totally cover your hospital- and recovery expenses, so you have to pay for them yourself. You are broke after so many months, and you can't work anymore because of your injury. Are you now dumber than you were before, or just poor? And is everybody who has more stuff than you smarter than you? Think again dude.
You may have been modded Flamebait but I agree with you completely. The whole Afghanistan elections are a waste of time and effort. We should never have gone there.
Mark my words: in five years from now we'll have Menuet on the desktop everywhere!
I guess the victim first told the Verizon guy how bad his company was, in not too friendly words, and hen asked him for an ID.
Once XP is completely dead, then I guess I'm done with Windows entirely.
The fact that you still run XP shows you need Windows. I bet you will be running Win7 in the future.
According to this article she is 31 years old now. Can you congratulate her from me? ;)
Free incoming for $ 30,-? Could you please explain to me what 'incoming' means and why you have to pay for free incoming?
Those aliens were running OS 9. The computer freak hero had the only Mac virus in existence and loaded it into the spaceship.
So Linux on the desktop will really never happen! Pity.
I'm not sure if Windows XP and Windows 7 suck so much. Vista was a bit of a big mistake though ;). But I never understood why MS doesn't widen its userbase by making software for other platforms.
It's just like Linux on the desktop. Not going to happen for a long, long time.
If MS starts making software for other OS-es than thier own, they can live happily ever after, can't they? Its one but biggest money maker is its Office suite. If they port that to other OSes than Windows and OSX they will stay in business, if they do it right.
I crinched when I read that. Oooh that must hurt.
I know what you mean. I have a very small lady friend who has a nice 10" Samsung. She is very happy with it.
If you want to do something new that has to do with computers today, you should go into quantum computing. I gues QC is now where 'normal' binary computing was in the 1950s. Seriously exciting times are afoot!
Indeed, for a start you would use SI units.
I remember when I had a 12" iBook. Back then it was considered a normal laptop. OK, it wasn't wide-screen, but isn't 12" just too big for a netbook?
Really? I thought these things were nearly free too, and printable. Oh well, then we have to settle for a normal picture and a soundfile.
OMG, /. doesn't even know the Euro sign! No wonder, it's almost 15 years old already.... I meant 500 euros instead of 500 [no unit].
In the article they were talking about 10 cents per card. But I guess you missed that when you read the article, no? ;P I don't see whre you got the 500 from.
Now we can have cards with OLED displays that can show a message delived by you in person, via a video! Quite cool, I think.