When did I once say anything negative about the PS3? It's a nice piece of hardware. The same way an SGI Onyx was a nice piece of hardware, but no one wanted one for their home. No, I was in no way bashing the PS3. Instead I was popping someone's unrealistic dreams like a balloon. What I said in no way negatively reflects on the PS3. My point was it's not the second coming and the person I was responding to's expectations of it were not at all based in reality. Consumers don't think and/or behave the way he or she suggested.
Plus, after posting that, I remembered Macs run Windows now, too. Making the idea of the PS3 pushing Apple out of the desktop market that much more hilarious.
Yes. What console in the last five years had a price drop in its first year? The only reason they'd drop the price is if it was an utter failure, but they're already losing too much money per unit. Just like the XBox 360, the price isn't coming down anytime soon.
And as far as "millions" of people wanting a box they can use as a PC... 1) It doesn't run windows, therefore no one will want it. 2) Most people already don't use 90% of the features of the devices they own. Even technophiles don't use all the features of their equipment. (My DVD player supports DivX on Demand, for instance, and I've never bothered with it.) So no, no one is going to think "Gee, let me buy this expensive black box so my kid can play games AND use it as an underpowered PC!" You can get a new PC off the shelf w/ 1GB of RAM and a 200GB HD for ~$400-$500 if you want a PC, and you don't have to learn some arcane operating system to use it. 3) See 1).
And that the supply issues with blue lasers will still limit supply of consoles? Ok
Not just blue lasers. Last I checked the Cell yields weren't very high, either.
Wait a minute... Did I honestly see you claim that the PS3 will push Apple out of the desktop market? With Linux? This is just flamebait, right?
You've got a point. Square could decide that the only proper way to experience their FMV sequences is in 1080p and go with the only system that provides them with that capability... But that seems a bit of a stretch. I'd really hope they didn't go w/ Blu-Ray just to fill up the disk with FMV, however... There's no reason I should have to pay $60 for a movie with a couple interactive bits thrown in here and there...
Yeah, why don't you go and try to implement a method for doing realtime interaction over a network and get back to me on how there's no difference. Especially for a fighting game, where split second reaction time can matter.
Network code is the stuff of nightmares. Eldritch horrors that skitter and shuffle through the network wires are waiting just outside your perception to break through the paper thin boundaries that seperate them from our world and devour your soul.
Well since the Grandparent first referred to EA as a developer first, I think it might be interesting to look at your examples...
Archon - Free Fall Associates M.U.L.E - Ozark_Softscape The Bard's Tale - Interplay Starflight - Binary Systems
Notice a pattern? Not a single one of those games was developed by EA. EA just distributed it. That would be like giving RCA credit for Elvis Presley's singing. Which was the grandparent's point, as far as developers go they're not looking to be innovative or original. They're aiming squarely at the frat boy market. And there's nothing wrong with that. Just don't come back and cry to us later about how tough the market you're in is.
The fact they've published some other people's work that was innovative really doesn't make up for their Cronus like approach to the studios they work with in recent years...
Yes, which have nothing to do with "graphical power". Which was my point. If you had pointed to Kojima's team at Konami and said "these guys need a system they can really push" I'd of agreed with you, but Square really doesn't fit that bill. I've never looked at a Final Fantasy game and said "This is the best looking thing on the system today." Ever.
Perhaps you prefer having umpteen devices attached to your TV to offer the functionality you can get out of one. Perhaps you prefer to build your own kit. I don't.
When those three devices are collectively cheaper and work better than the single device, then yeah, I do prefer it. Also note it's only three because I really really like my DVD player and so I don't use the DVD drive on my PVR box... Otherwise it could be two.
Who said it did? The graphics performance is for playing games.
A Shader Model 3/4 graphics card won't help me run ZSNES or MAME any better.:)
I'm guessing Nintendo really isn't pursuing the holistic home network approach MS is targeting.
They've tried the 'all things to all peoples' approach before and it's never really paid off. Even the little NES/Famicom had an online component (mostly for banking and stock trading), and their experiments in these areas have rarely borne fruit. The margins in the early adopter, bleeding edge market are miniscule, so they know they can sit out a few generations and not really lose anything. Just like online play last generation, which (despite the claim of XBox Live Devotees) was not really that popular. Even in the current generation, trying to do something like play the latest Tiger Woods game online with your non-techy father is practically impossible. Meanwhile, by sitting out Nintendo acquired the right companies and right talent to build an online experience even my Grandmother could take part in. Likewise, it's really unlikely that the average person is looking to spend $600 on some box that consolidates all their entertainment into one place. I know people who still can't be bothered to spend $50 on a DVD player. It may be a big deal next generation, but we've been hearing the set top box mantra for like a decade now...
But as you pointed out, when that next generation comes around there will at least be some people with experience with Sony/Microsoft as a complete solution, and they would be wise to bank on that giving them a leg up over the competition. The one caveat, though, is they have to deliver an experience that people remember fondly enough to go with them next time. So far Microsoft's offering has been a real mixed bag and people have to actually get Sony's console in their hands to develop any kind of following...:)
Do NOT mess entertainment market with professional/engineering one. I'm software/hardware developer and I know who badly Wii's software/hardware sucks. But that's not the point.
I think you misunderstood my point. I wasn't trying to compare professional motion sensing technology to the tech available on the Wii. What I meant was that there are certain applications that just don't map well to analog/digital buttons and direction inputs. What'll be interesting to me is seeing what people DO with this tech in a non-academic/non-professional environment. I know how we use a hybrid inertial tracker when interacting with a HMD based 3D Dataset Visualization package, but the average person won't find that remotely interesting. So when the emphasis goes from "get work done" to "have fun", what new uses of this type of interaction will pop up that none of us have thought of?
But Nintendo was the only company that remained profitable throughout the entire last generation. Their profits were also always larger than Sony's when Sony's game division was profitable. Microsoft's game division has never been profitable...
So when does 'near term' cease being 'near'? The last generation was, what, six years of Nintendo being #1 in profits?
The comment I have about non-gamers picking up the Wii is: The Lord of the Rings movies were very popular among non-nerds, but does that mean that those same non-nerds will play D&D every week? People may play the Wii at someone's house and think it's fun, it doesn't mean that they'll go out and purchase one.
Well, this is anecdotal, but after bringing our Wii to Thanksgiving dinner four of the decidedly non-gamer households there are now trying to acquire their own Wii. Even my grandparents want one. And, funnily enough, they're happy to hear they'll be able to get component ED 16:9 input for their new 50 inch LCD. The HD input from an XBox360/PS3 would never matter to them, because they'll never play those systems. I believe the majority of people who are going to drop money on a nice big HD TV are going to fit in that crowd, aging upper middle class individuals nearing or just past retirement age who don't want a XBox 360 anyway.
PS: I looked at that 1UP Article. All I can express is shock and dismay. I especially love the crazy Ken Kutaragi quotes. That should be an ongoing column. We've done parodies of him at school before but this is actually worse than our bit about the PS2 being inspired by him checking out an Odyssey2. The PS3 will instill discipline? WTF?
Erm... What HD outputs are you talking about? My understanding was the big draw of the PS3's HD-out was an HDMI port which is just DVI with Audio (which my current PVR box is hooked into my Sony WEGA HD by a DVI to HDMI cable and some RCA jacks). I can most certainly build a better set top box/PVR for less money than the PS3 will provide. What the hell does "graphics performance" matter for a PVR? Heck, I unplugged the fan on the GeForce 4 in my box to quiet it down because it's not really being used.
So far I haven't seen any useful feature the PS3 can provide that my homebrew PVR can't for less money.
Note I don't consider Blu-Ray a useful feature...:P
Because unlike the Eye Toy, there's actually real games to be played on the Wii. The EyeToy games are cute, but lack any depth or simultaneous multiplayer.
As far as getting similar motion sensing interfaces on the XBox360/PS3, it won't happen. Consumers won't want to make the extra investment in new controllers and sensors and developers won't develop features for accessories that probably won't be available to the average user. The Wii is working because it brings the novel control scheme to the general public with a enticing low pricepoint. In the lab I work at, motion trackers are usually priced at a minimum of $500 just for the sensor, and a few $K for the base station. Something we're actually willing to use (Like an Intersense IS-900 system) runs more like $2,000 for wired sensors, even more for wireless. Seeing usable hybrid inertial trackers in people's homes for under $250 is going to be interesting to watch.
Actually I work in a VR lab at my university and I take issue with a couple of your comments... namely:
Motion sickness is often a problem
Yeah, but that could be solved (at least somewhat) with some of the cheap head-tracking alternatives on the market currently...
Games can appear blurred
That's usually a problem of refresh rate, not the technology itself. Your monitor should be set at a minimum of 120Hz to get good results. I've seen some exotic displays that can have refresh rates in excess of 1000Hz, but that's usually for multiple-user systems. Actually the "blurring" effect can be beneficial in many cases, since your eyes use the two images as something like natural super-sampling, so you get an anti-aliasing effect without wasting any clock cycles on it. YMMV though.
Edges of screen cannot be rendered properly in 3D (you get images only one eye can see)
There's always parts of the scene one eye can see and the other can't. Touch the left side of your nose and close your left eye. Tada! You can't see your finger.:) In this case the monitor is acting like a window into the virtual world. Head tracking is immensely helpful here.
Only 3D aspects of games are supported. Dialog boxes, text, HUDs all will not work properly unless they are drawn as part of the 3D model (which they usually never are)
Huh? Billboarded UI features are generally drawn right on the display surface, meaning they will work just fine in stereoscopic 3D rendering. That's how we do our menus in the geology vis app I've been working on. They just look like they're sitting right on the monitor surface, which is often desirable.
no self respecting gamer would use them.
Eh? Where do you get off saying that? Maybe they won't increase your frag count in Halo or whatever, but I can think of a few types of games where a lack of depth perception is incredibly frustrating. I think puzzle gamers and platform gamers would welcome depth perception, as well as a few other genres. I think your definition of a "gamer" is a little to narrow.
as long as you don't end up punching people while waving your arms around like an idiot
Speaking from experience... My fiance stabbed me twice while she was playing Zelda and I was sitting on the couch next to her doing work... Thankfully the Wiimote is rather blunt, so no real damage done... But you have been warned!
Yeah, I got mine hooked up around 1AM CST Sunday morning and I was able to pull down two updates immediately. Each one took I guess about forty five seconds to download. Later in the day I was getting the same connection problems as everyone else, though they went away around 8PM CST. So yeah I think it was just the massive rush of buyers. On that note, make sure all your updates are current on Christmas Eve...
You know, I read your journal, and you almost had me up until "President Clinton's welfare reform bill was a lot like Nixon's, only stricter."
That wasn't Clinton's Welfare Reform Bill. He vetoed it twice. He didn't write one sentence of that legislation, that was all the Republican congress of '96's doing.
The problem is not whether the astronauts are willing to die for what they do, it's whether or not the American public will be willing to keep paying for a program that they don't believe benefits them directly and keeps failing to bring people back alive. Another spectacular failure ala Apollo 1, Challenger, or Columbia and we may very well no longer have a manned space program. Yes the Hubble is valuable and worth saving, but we have to pick our battles. If anyone dies in low earth orbit in the next five or ten years we'll never leave it.
There's nothing selfish about keeping the money I earn. Just as there's nothing charitable about paying for other people's health care when you're forced at gunpoint.
Yes this author can't take care of his own expenses. But look what's happening, CHARITY is picking up the slack. There are places to help those that honestly can't help themselves, the government doesn't have to force anyone to do it.
I'm confused by your offering the example of prescribed medications as being "organized". I fail to see what the American system, wherein I take my Prescription to a Pharmacist and get it filled, is lacking.
And I have been seriously ill in the past, as have several of my family members. And in no case did it ever make me feel I was entitled to your paycheck. Why does being ill mean you can take someone else's stuff? Let people donate what they want, don't take it from them by force.
Slashdot Mirror
When did I once say anything negative about the PS3? It's a nice piece of hardware. The same way an SGI Onyx was a nice piece of hardware, but no one wanted one for their home. No, I was in no way bashing the PS3. Instead I was popping someone's unrealistic dreams like a balloon. What I said in no way negatively reflects on the PS3. My point was it's not the second coming and the person I was responding to's expectations of it were not at all based in reality. Consumers don't think and/or behave the way he or she suggested.
Plus, after posting that, I remembered Macs run Windows now, too. Making the idea of the PS3 pushing Apple out of the desktop market that much more hilarious.
Actually I thought we just used it to annoy installers because it's such a bitch to bend...
Do you think it will still be $599 by next xmas?
Yes. What console in the last five years had a price drop in its first year? The only reason they'd drop the price is if it was an utter failure, but they're already losing too much money per unit. Just like the XBox 360, the price isn't coming down anytime soon.
And as far as "millions" of people wanting a box they can use as a PC... 1) It doesn't run windows, therefore no one will want it. 2) Most people already don't use 90% of the features of the devices they own. Even technophiles don't use all the features of their equipment. (My DVD player supports DivX on Demand, for instance, and I've never bothered with it.) So no, no one is going to think "Gee, let me buy this expensive black box so my kid can play games AND use it as an underpowered PC!" You can get a new PC off the shelf w/ 1GB of RAM and a 200GB HD for ~$400-$500 if you want a PC, and you don't have to learn some arcane operating system to use it. 3) See 1).
And that the supply issues with blue lasers will still limit supply of consoles? Ok
Not just blue lasers. Last I checked the Cell yields weren't very high, either.
Wait a minute... Did I honestly see you claim that the PS3 will push Apple out of the desktop market? With Linux? This is just flamebait, right?
But I don't like blondes...
You've got a point. Square could decide that the only proper way to experience their FMV sequences is in 1080p and go with the only system that provides them with that capability... But that seems a bit of a stretch. I'd really hope they didn't go w/ Blu-Ray just to fill up the disk with FMV, however... There's no reason I should have to pay $60 for a movie with a couple interactive bits thrown in here and there...
Yeah, why don't you go and try to implement a method for doing realtime interaction over a network and get back to me on how there's no difference. Especially for a fighting game, where split second reaction time can matter.
Network code is the stuff of nightmares. Eldritch horrors that skitter and shuffle through the network wires are waiting just outside your perception to break through the paper thin boundaries that seperate them from our world and devour your soul.
Well since the Grandparent first referred to EA as a developer first, I think it might be interesting to look at your examples...
Archon - Free Fall Associates
M.U.L.E - Ozark_Softscape
The Bard's Tale - Interplay
Starflight - Binary Systems
Notice a pattern? Not a single one of those games was developed by EA. EA just distributed it. That would be like giving RCA credit for Elvis Presley's singing. Which was the grandparent's point, as far as developers go they're not looking to be innovative or original. They're aiming squarely at the frat boy market. And there's nothing wrong with that. Just don't come back and cry to us later about how tough the market you're in is.
The fact they've published some other people's work that was innovative really doesn't make up for their Cronus like approach to the studios they work with in recent years...
Yes, which have nothing to do with "graphical power". Which was my point. If you had pointed to Kojima's team at Konami and said "these guys need a system they can really push" I'd of agreed with you, but Square really doesn't fit that bill. I've never looked at a Final Fantasy game and said "This is the best looking thing on the system today." Ever.
Perhaps you prefer having umpteen devices attached to your TV to offer the functionality you can get out of one. Perhaps you prefer to build your own kit. I don't.
:)
When those three devices are collectively cheaper and work better than the single device, then yeah, I do prefer it. Also note it's only three because I really really like my DVD player and so I don't use the DVD drive on my PVR box... Otherwise it could be two.
Who said it did? The graphics performance is for playing games.
A Shader Model 3/4 graphics card won't help me run ZSNES or MAME any better.
I'm guessing Nintendo really isn't pursuing the holistic home network approach MS is targeting.
:)
They've tried the 'all things to all peoples' approach before and it's never really paid off. Even the little NES/Famicom had an online component (mostly for banking and stock trading), and their experiments in these areas have rarely borne fruit. The margins in the early adopter, bleeding edge market are miniscule, so they know they can sit out a few generations and not really lose anything. Just like online play last generation, which (despite the claim of XBox Live Devotees) was not really that popular. Even in the current generation, trying to do something like play the latest Tiger Woods game online with your non-techy father is practically impossible. Meanwhile, by sitting out Nintendo acquired the right companies and right talent to build an online experience even my Grandmother could take part in. Likewise, it's really unlikely that the average person is looking to spend $600 on some box that consolidates all their entertainment into one place. I know people who still can't be bothered to spend $50 on a DVD player. It may be a big deal next generation, but we've been hearing the set top box mantra for like a decade now...
But as you pointed out, when that next generation comes around there will at least be some people with experience with Sony/Microsoft as a complete solution, and they would be wise to bank on that giving them a leg up over the competition. The one caveat, though, is they have to deliver an experience that people remember fondly enough to go with them next time. So far Microsoft's offering has been a real mixed bag and people have to actually get Sony's console in their hands to develop any kind of following...
Do NOT mess entertainment market with professional/engineering one. I'm software/hardware developer and I know who badly Wii's software/hardware sucks. But that's not the point.
I think you misunderstood my point. I wasn't trying to compare professional motion sensing technology to the tech available on the Wii. What I meant was that there are certain applications that just don't map well to analog/digital buttons and direction inputs. What'll be interesting to me is seeing what people DO with this tech in a non-academic/non-professional environment. I know how we use a hybrid inertial tracker when interacting with a HMD based 3D Dataset Visualization package, but the average person won't find that remotely interesting. So when the emphasis goes from "get work done" to "have fun", what new uses of this type of interaction will pop up that none of us have thought of?
But Nintendo was the only company that remained profitable throughout the entire last generation. Their profits were also always larger than Sony's when Sony's game division was profitable. Microsoft's game division has never been profitable...
So when does 'near term' cease being 'near'? The last generation was, what, six years of Nintendo being #1 in profits?
Your comment confuses me.
The comment I have about non-gamers picking up the Wii is: The Lord of the Rings movies were very popular among non-nerds, but does that mean that those same non-nerds will play D&D every week? People may play the Wii at someone's house and think it's fun, it doesn't mean that they'll go out and purchase one.
Well, this is anecdotal, but after bringing our Wii to Thanksgiving dinner four of the decidedly non-gamer households there are now trying to acquire their own Wii. Even my grandparents want one. And, funnily enough, they're happy to hear they'll be able to get component ED 16:9 input for their new 50 inch LCD. The HD input from an XBox360/PS3 would never matter to them, because they'll never play those systems. I believe the majority of people who are going to drop money on a nice big HD TV are going to fit in that crowd, aging upper middle class individuals nearing or just past retirement age who don't want a XBox 360 anyway.
PS: I looked at that 1UP Article. All I can express is shock and dismay. I especially love the crazy Ken Kutaragi quotes. That should be an ongoing column. We've done parodies of him at school before but this is actually worse than our bit about the PS2 being inspired by him checking out an Odyssey2. The PS3 will instill discipline? WTF?
Consider your spleen sold, I guess.
Erm... What HD outputs are you talking about? My understanding was the big draw of the PS3's HD-out was an HDMI port which is just DVI with Audio (which my current PVR box is hooked into my Sony WEGA HD by a DVI to HDMI cable and some RCA jacks). I can most certainly build a better set top box/PVR for less money than the PS3 will provide. What the hell does "graphics performance" matter for a PVR? Heck, I unplugged the fan on the GeForce 4 in my box to quiet it down because it's not really being used.
:P
So far I haven't seen any useful feature the PS3 can provide that my homebrew PVR can't for less money.
Note I don't consider Blu-Ray a useful feature...
Because unlike the Eye Toy, there's actually real games to be played on the Wii. The EyeToy games are cute, but lack any depth or simultaneous multiplayer.
As far as getting similar motion sensing interfaces on the XBox360/PS3, it won't happen. Consumers won't want to make the extra investment in new controllers and sensors and developers won't develop features for accessories that probably won't be available to the average user. The Wii is working because it brings the novel control scheme to the general public with a enticing low pricepoint. In the lab I work at, motion trackers are usually priced at a minimum of $500 just for the sensor, and a few $K for the base station. Something we're actually willing to use (Like an Intersense IS-900 system) runs more like $2,000 for wired sensors, even more for wireless. Seeing usable hybrid inertial trackers in people's homes for under $250 is going to be interesting to watch.
As I was saying, Square would only make FF spin-offs, not a main title game for Wii, because of their love of sheer graphical power.
...
Which is why FF7/FF8 were on the PlayStation: for its "graphical power".
Waitaminute...
Actually I work in a VR lab at my university and I take issue with a couple of your comments... namely:
:) In this case the monitor is acting like a window into the virtual world. Head tracking is immensely helpful here.
Motion sickness is often a problem
Yeah, but that could be solved (at least somewhat) with some of the cheap head-tracking alternatives on the market currently...
Games can appear blurred
That's usually a problem of refresh rate, not the technology itself. Your monitor should be set at a minimum of 120Hz to get good results. I've seen some exotic displays that can have refresh rates in excess of 1000Hz, but that's usually for multiple-user systems. Actually the "blurring" effect can be beneficial in many cases, since your eyes use the two images as something like natural super-sampling, so you get an anti-aliasing effect without wasting any clock cycles on it. YMMV though.
Edges of screen cannot be rendered properly in 3D (you get images only one eye can see)
There's always parts of the scene one eye can see and the other can't. Touch the left side of your nose and close your left eye. Tada! You can't see your finger.
Only 3D aspects of games are supported. Dialog boxes, text, HUDs all will not work properly unless they are drawn as part of the 3D model (which they usually never are)
Huh? Billboarded UI features are generally drawn right on the display surface, meaning they will work just fine in stereoscopic 3D rendering. That's how we do our menus in the geology vis app I've been working on. They just look like they're sitting right on the monitor surface, which is often desirable.
no self respecting gamer would use them.
Eh? Where do you get off saying that? Maybe they won't increase your frag count in Halo or whatever, but I can think of a few types of games where a lack of depth perception is incredibly frustrating. I think puzzle gamers and platform gamers would welcome depth perception, as well as a few other genres. I think your definition of a "gamer" is a little to narrow.
as long as you don't end up punching people while waving your arms around like an idiot
Speaking from experience... My fiance stabbed me twice while she was playing Zelda and I was sitting on the couch next to her doing work... Thankfully the Wiimote is rather blunt, so no real damage done... But you have been warned!
-Chris B
Yeah, I got mine hooked up around 1AM CST Sunday morning and I was able to pull down two updates immediately. Each one took I guess about forty five seconds to download. Later in the day I was getting the same connection problems as everyone else, though they went away around 8PM CST. So yeah I think it was just the massive rush of buyers. On that note, make sure all your updates are current on Christmas Eve...
You know, I read your journal, and you almost had me up until "President Clinton's welfare reform bill was a lot like Nixon's, only stricter."
That wasn't Clinton's Welfare Reform Bill. He vetoed it twice. He didn't write one sentence of that legislation, that was all the Republican congress of '96's doing.
The problem is not whether the astronauts are willing to die for what they do, it's whether or not the American public will be willing to keep paying for a program that they don't believe benefits them directly and keeps failing to bring people back alive. Another spectacular failure ala Apollo 1, Challenger, or Columbia and we may very well no longer have a manned space program. Yes the Hubble is valuable and worth saving, but we have to pick our battles. If anyone dies in low earth orbit in the next five or ten years we'll never leave it.
What's say we meet here again in a hundred years and see how your opinions have changed?
And really, I have to say, I'm very happy to live in a society where my greatest risk to life and limb is eating myself to death.
There's nothing selfish about keeping the money I earn. Just as there's nothing charitable about paying for other people's health care when you're forced at gunpoint.
Yes this author can't take care of his own expenses. But look what's happening, CHARITY is picking up the slack. There are places to help those that honestly can't help themselves, the government doesn't have to force anyone to do it.
I'm confused by your offering the example of prescribed medications as being "organized". I fail to see what the American system, wherein I take my Prescription to a Pharmacist and get it filled, is lacking.
And I have been seriously ill in the past, as have several of my family members. And in no case did it ever make me feel I was entitled to your paycheck. Why does being ill mean you can take someone else's stuff? Let people donate what they want, don't take it from them by force.