SD = sqrt(0.5*0.5) = 0.5
SE = SD/sqrt(sample size) = 0.5/sqrt(9) = 0.16
z = (observed result - expected result)/SE = (9-4.5)/0.16 = 28.125 - So, the chance that it was 50% is even lower.
Let's say the chance to come back alive is indeed 50%.
We had 8 missions. The chance for the 9th is still 50%.
We have no missions. What is the chance that we get 9 missions coming back alive? (1/2)^9 = 0.001953125 = 0.2%.
Gamblers fallacy would be saying after 8 successful missions that the change for the 9th is 0.2% - which is not what the GP said.
If the chance top come back alive is 50%, we expect 4.5 out of 9 missions to come back alive.
Null hypothesis: The difference between 4.5 expected and 9 observed missions coming back alive is due to chance.
Alternative hypothesis: The chance to come back is higher than 50%
SD = sqrt((1/2)^2*(1/2)^2) = 0.25
z = (observed result - expected result)/SD = (9 - 4.5)/0.25 = 18
NormalCDF(18,infinity) = 1.04E-70% = the chance that the probability to come back alive is indeed 50%
Conclusion: GP is correct, it is very unlikely that the chance to come back alive was 50%.
One is any sci-fi story set more than a few centuries in the future that doesn't have strong AI without a damned good political or technical explanation of why not.
Simple: "We're about 20 to 50 years from having strong AI" is a perpetual truth.
I bought an Acorn Archimedes 305 in 1987, it had an ARM2 CPU at 4/8 MHz. It was one of the first available ARM systems (only preceded by an £4000 expansion box for the Acorn BBC B and a developer version of the Archimedes which was not available to the public), and the first ARM system which was affordable. It came with the Arthur 0.2 Operating System in EPROM, which was later replaced by RISC OS 1.2.
Today, ARM is known for low power consumption, but in the 1980s it's main selling point was its superior speed. At 4.5 MIPS (and up to a whopping 18 MIPS in laboratory conditions), it was running circles around the competition (Intel 80x86 & Motorola 680xx). The Archimedes had software emulation of the 80x86, which ran at IBM-PC/XT speed (in the IBM-PC/AT era). I used this emulator to run WordPerfect and the TopSpeed Modula-2 compiler in MS-DOS for programming assignments at university.
I still have the Acorn Prolog-X box sitting at a honorary place on my bookshelf above my current computer, just out of nostalgia.
old news... It was everywhere Thursday. Salshdot is really pathetic now, even the non beta page...
It doesn't matter if it is old news, it doesn't matter if it is a dupe, it doesn't matter if the linked article is lame, it doesn't matter that some posters are trolls or shills.
What does matter is: is there an intelligent/insightful discussion by the community? I learned a lot over the past 16 years by reading comments here.
Unfortunately, that does not seem to matter to Dice, who wants/. to be a "B2B social network". If the Beta (which has the comments section as an afterthought, in stead of as the starting point of the redesign) goes live and Classic gets disabled, it will only be "Slashdot" in name.
The real travesty has been the constant hijacking of threads with redesign whine. If I had hit the mod point lottery in the past few days the off-topic button would have broken.
Without over two days of thread hijacking we wouldn't even had this discussion here. We did what was necessary for the survival of Slashdot. Ask the people who DID have mod points: they used their excellent karma to mod posts like "Mod parent -1 ontopic" up to +5.
I see critiques about the current system all the time. There are things broken, things that could be made better, etc.
Indeed. The work that was put in creating the Beta would have been better put in fixing the current site gradually without alienating the user base.
We want unicode, we don't want stock photos. I don't know how to explain something like that to an MBA, but everybody around here can understand it.
We want a powerful comment system, anything that does not have that as a starting point is wrong. That is something you can explain to an MBA, just call it "strategy". Put it in the mission statement of Slashdot Media: the comments system is holy.
No, he is not. He is defending the existence of Slashdot.
Anyway, just wait until February 10th: then you'll have a whole week of stories without any comments, except perhaps for some cowards like you who have nothing to say but "first post".
Their actions speak loud enough: they are mass-downmodding all Beta comments.
We post these things because we care. Our overlords are trying to stop making us care.
For posteriority: many of these "-1 offtopic" and "0 offtopic" posts that you see in today's threads were at one point "+5 interesting", "+5 insightful" or "+5 funny". That was the opinion of the people with mod points, what you see now is what the editors were told to do by Dice management.
The slashdot editors are mass-downmodding the Beta comments.
We post these things because we care. Our overlords are trying to stop making us care.
For posteriority: most these "-1 offtopic" and "0 offtopic" posts that you see in this thread were at one point "+5 interesting", "+5 insightful" or "+5 funny". That was the opinion of the people with mod points, what you see now is what the editors were told to do by Dice management.
Please post this to new articles if it hasn't been posted yet.
On February 5, 2014, Slashdot announced through a javascript popup that they are starting to "move in to" the new Slashdot Beta design.
Slashdot Beta is a trend-following attempt to give Slashdot a fresh look, an approach that has led to less space for text and an abandonment of the traditional Slashdot look. Much worse than that, Slashdot Beta fundamentally breaks the classic Slashdot discussion and moderation system.
If you haven't seen Slashdot Beta already, open this in a new tab. After seeing that, click here to return to classic Slashdot.
We should boycott stories and only discuss the abomination that is Slashdot Beta until Dice abandons the project.We should boycott slashdot entirely during the week of Feb 10 to Feb 17 as part of the wider slashcott
Moderators - only spend mod points on comments that discuss Beta
Commentors - only discuss Beta
http://slashdot.org/recent - Vote up the Fuck Beta stories
Keep this up for a few days and we may finally get the PHBs attention.
Slashdot Mirror
Oops, made some mistakes in my calculation:
SD = sqrt(0.5*0.5) = 0.5
SE = SD/sqrt(sample size) = 0.5/sqrt(9) = 0.16
z = (observed result - expected result)/SE = (9-4.5)/0.16 = 28.125 - So, the chance that it was 50% is even lower.
The Soviets were never in the 'race to the moon'.
First attempt to land on the moon: Luna 1, 1959
First hard landing on the moon: Luna 2, 1959
First soft landing on the moon: Luna 9, 1966
First unmanned sample return from the moon: Luna 16, 1970
First unmanned moon rover: Luna 17, 1970
Due to the low number of flights, I should have used a t-test, rather than a z-test. Anyway, the conclusion will be the same.
You fell for the Gambler's fallacy.
You misunderstand gambler's fallacy.
Let's say the chance to come back alive is indeed 50%.
We had 8 missions. The chance for the 9th is still 50%.
We have no missions. What is the chance that we get 9 missions coming back alive? (1/2)^9 = 0.001953125 = 0.2%.
Gamblers fallacy would be saying after 8 successful missions that the change for the 9th is 0.2% - which is not what the GP said.
GP is talking about statistical significance.
If the chance top come back alive is 50%, we expect 4.5 out of 9 missions to come back alive.
Null hypothesis: The difference between 4.5 expected and 9 observed missions coming back alive is due to chance.
Alternative hypothesis: The chance to come back is higher than 50%
SD = sqrt((1/2)^2*(1/2)^2) = 0.25
z = (observed result - expected result)/SD = (9 - 4.5)/0.25 = 18
NormalCDF(18,infinity) = 1.04E-70% = the chance that the probability to come back alive is indeed 50%
Conclusion: GP is correct, it is very unlikely that the chance to come back alive was 50%.
A mix of Prolog for high level problems, Fortran for calculations, Erlang for concurrency and Assembly for speed.
One is any sci-fi story set more than a few centuries in the future that doesn't have strong AI without a damned good political or technical explanation of why not.
Simple: "We're about 20 to 50 years from having strong AI" is a perpetual truth.
I bought an Acorn Archimedes 305 in 1987, it had an ARM2 CPU at 4/8 MHz. It was one of the first available ARM systems (only preceded by an £4000 expansion box for the Acorn BBC B and a developer version of the Archimedes which was not available to the public), and the first ARM system which was affordable. It came with the Arthur 0.2 Operating System in EPROM, which was later replaced by RISC OS 1.2.
I learned ARM assembly programming from Pete Cockerell's excellent book.
Today, ARM is known for low power consumption, but in the 1980s it's main selling point was its superior speed. At 4.5 MIPS (and up to a whopping 18 MIPS in laboratory conditions), it was running circles around the competition (Intel 80x86 & Motorola 680xx). The Archimedes had software emulation of the 80x86, which ran at IBM-PC/XT speed (in the IBM-PC/AT era). I used this emulator to run WordPerfect and the TopSpeed Modula-2 compiler in MS-DOS for programming assignments at university.
I still have the Acorn Prolog-X box sitting at a honorary place on my bookshelf above my current computer, just out of nostalgia.
What's a vm? Will this run on my dell win8 laptop ok, without ruining my current setup?
Virtual Machine, yes a VM will run on your computer and allow you to test ReactOS safely.
old news... It was everywhere Thursday. Salshdot is really pathetic now, even the non beta page...
It doesn't matter if it is old news, it doesn't matter if it is a dupe, it doesn't matter if the linked article is lame, it doesn't matter that some posters are trolls or shills.
/. to be a "B2B social network". If the Beta (which has the comments section as an afterthought, in stead of as the starting point of the redesign) goes live and Classic gets disabled, it will only be "Slashdot" in name.
What does matter is: is there an intelligent/insightful discussion by the community? I learned a lot over the past 16 years by reading comments here.
Unfortunately, that does not seem to matter to Dice, who wants
The roman alphabet is mostly phonetic.
Indeed, except in English.
/f/ as in tough; o, pronounced /I/ as in women; ti, pronounced /sh/ as in nation: read aloud as "fish".
... silence.
Ghoti: gh, pronounced
Ghoti: gh as in though; o as in people; t as in ballet; i as in business: read aloud as
Imagine it is 1870 and someone hands you E = M.C.squared. How many years would it take a person to figure out just what the equation described?
About minus 90 years?
Please keep it coming.
That is exactly what we are doing. You'll see what happens when we stop keeping it coming between February 10th and 17th.
The real travesty has been the constant hijacking of threads with redesign whine. If I had hit the mod point lottery in the past few days the off-topic button would have broken.
Without over two days of thread hijacking we wouldn't even had this discussion here. We did what was necessary for the survival of Slashdot. Ask the people who DID have mod points: they used their excellent karma to mod posts like "Mod parent -1 ontopic" up to +5.
I see critiques about the current system all the time. There are things broken, things that could be made better, etc.
Indeed. The work that was put in creating the Beta would have been better put in fixing the current site gradually without alienating the user base.
We want unicode, we don't want stock photos. I don't know how to explain something like that to an MBA, but everybody around here can understand it.
We want a powerful comment system, anything that does not have that as a starting point is wrong. That is something you can explain to an MBA, just call it "strategy". Put it in the mission statement of Slashdot Media: the comments system is holy.
UX research
You make it sound as if it is a science.
Here's a clue for you: slashdot users can tell the difference between hype and marketing speak versus facts.
OK, I'll take being a whiney cunt with a big smile, just because you wrote that the Beta blows & is a travesty.
Thanks for joining the fight on our side (even if that is not what you intended to achieve).
No, he is not. He is defending the existence of Slashdot.
Anyway, just wait until February 10th: then you'll have a whole week of stories without any comments, except perhaps for some cowards like you who have nothing to say but "first post".
Believe me, we're well aware of what everybody is discussing.
Is that why suddenly our comments get massively downmodded now?
Folks with mod point get the complaints to +5 and suddenly they are back to "0 Offtopic".
Dice, Editors, your silence is deafening!
Their actions speak loud enough: they are mass-downmodding all Beta comments.
We post these things because we care. Our overlords are trying to stop making us care.
For posteriority: many of these "-1 offtopic" and "0 offtopic" posts that you see in today's threads were at one point "+5 interesting", "+5 insightful" or "+5 funny". That was the opinion of the people with mod points, what you see now is what the editors were told to do by Dice management.
The slashdot editors are mass-downmodding the Beta comments.
We post these things because we care. Our overlords are trying to stop making us care.
For posteriority: most these "-1 offtopic" and "0 offtopic" posts that you see in this thread were at one point "+5 interesting", "+5 insightful" or "+5 funny". That was the opinion of the people with mod points, what you see now is what the editors were told to do by Dice management.
someone please post where we all going to move to.
Check out AltSlashdot.
What is stopping someone from reopening Slashdot on another site under another name?
Check out AltSlashdot.
Please post this to new articles if it hasn't been posted yet.
On February 5, 2014, Slashdot announced through a javascript popup that they are starting to "move in to" the new Slashdot Beta design.
Slashdot Beta is a trend-following attempt to give Slashdot a fresh look, an approach that has led to less space for text and an abandonment of the traditional Slashdot look. Much worse than that, Slashdot Beta fundamentally breaks the classic Slashdot discussion and moderation system.
If you haven't seen Slashdot Beta already, open this in a new tab. After seeing that, click here to return to classic Slashdot.
We should boycott stories and only discuss the abomination that is Slashdot Beta until Dice abandons the project. We should boycott slashdot entirely during the week of Feb 10 to Feb 17 as part of the wider slashcott
Moderators - only spend mod points on comments that discuss Beta Commentors - only discuss Beta http://slashdot.org/recent - Vote up the Fuck Beta stories
Keep this up for a few days and we may finally get the PHBs attention.
Captcha: fuckbeta
http://developers.slashdot.org... http://developers.slashdot.org... http://yro.slashdot.org/commen... http://science.slashdot.org/co...
Mod -1 ontopic.
Mod parent up.
/. alive: kill beta.
Keep