For the benefit of the acronym-annoyed, PPI=Proton Pump Inhibitor.
PPIs suppress acid generation, but don't do anything for acid that's already present. So you either have to take them in advance or use one of the products that combines a traditional antacid remedy with them to neutralize what's there and keep new acid from coming in. Or take your own antacid + PPI inhibitor (check with your doctor, though).
PPIs are wonderful. They allow me to eat and drink things that taste great but have a prohibitive acid cost (grape juice, for example). Stuff that traditional antacids could barely touch.
But these and other issues with PPIs have been known or suspected for quite some time. I try to avoid overdoing things, and since only when I consume known antagonists do I need acid suppression they are a real boon for me.
For the less fortunate who have full-time acid maintenance problems, this news is not unexpected, I think, but hardly comforting and it indicates that further work on acid regulation is in order.
I'd never considered using squashfs as a backup mechanism, but if it works for you...
My Red Hat tar utility does support sparse files, although it's turned off by default, I think. A compressed tarball wouldn't care about holes, since holes compress down to virtually nothing anyway. The real issue is more in how well the receiving filesystem will honor the holes when the files are transferred into it.
My day-to-day backups are based on Bacula, which supports sparse files. Most of my alternative strategies are for short-term safety or long-term image storage.
I'm sorry to say that most of the commercial backup products I've worked with over the years have let me down at the worst possible times. Linux tar has not, ZIP has not, as long as I don't have multi-volume ZIPs, and bacula files have not. In addition to being reliable and free, you can work with them on virtually any platform and not get nuked by OS, hardware, or data version issues.
There are many tricks. Personally, I like to tar stuff or do a ZIP-with-delete and keep it for a day or 3 before removal. For large quantities of data, that can take a while, though, so another possibility if one is working with snapshot-capable storage management is to snapshot it and work "offline" on the snapshot. I do this on VM images, for example.
Hot mirrors updated just infrequently enough that you can break the link before the damage propagates isn't a bad idea, either. Filesystems with "time machine" rollback capabilities, too.
You can pretty well bet that a backup is never as usable as it's supposed to be. It's going to be outdated, corrupted, or something critical won't be in it.
To be really viable, you need to devote the same level of attention to backup/restore (accent on the restore) as you do on security management. There is a very strong case for keeping an entire server or set of servers to run frequent checks on backups, including bare-metal restores, and these days, a spare computer or 6 is not a bank-breaking investment any more if your data means anything to you. I also like to employ multiple types of backup media on the premise that not all types of hardware will be affected equally by most failures.
At least apparently they only lost a few hours worth of work, and although potentially a large amount of data, it's a job that is inherently distributed among many disgruntled clients. Other organizations haven't been so fortunate.
Yeah, no thanks. I'll compete with anything any other programmer can muster. If they provide a better value proposition, then I should reconsider my competitive advantages and lower my requisite salary. I do not need the government dictating my wage to me. I didn't vote communist, ever.
I'm a US Citizen
You are a US idiot.
Indian workers do not work for less because they are kind and generous. They work less because they don't have a nanny-state government that steals a lot of their income and uses it to build electrical grids, water treatment systems, inspect chemical plants in Bhopal or pay police officials salaries that discourage them from being for sale to the highest bidder. They don't have an incorruptible system of inspectors to ensure the safety of the food, water, electrical systems or whatever. They're not QUITE the Libertarian paradise where the only thing you have to pay for are the things you buy directly - including protection from your neighbors - but they pay cardboard prices for cardboard infrastructure. And, unlike China, if you poison a batch of food and neglect to pay your bribes, they won't execute you in India.
They also don't generally have private automobiles, air conditiong or often even refrigerators. Detached housing is for the wealthy - for ordinary workers you jam into a tenement and ride a crowded bus over a jammed-up road that's more pothole than pavement. Or, if you are lucky, your employer sends a shuttle because drivers are cheap and they'd prefer you make it to work without the risks of self-transportation.
The cost of a single lunch at Burger King would feed you for a week in Bangalore, but I hope you like a steady diet of mostly beans and rice.
The upshot of this is that in the year 2000, an Indian worker could live decently on ONE TENTH the income of a US worker (about 1 lakh per year of experience, and generally 5 years or less experience). Just try lowering your requisite salary to compete with that.
Indian workers are not stupid, however and since then, they've been aggressively raising their own requisite salaries to the point that you might have to pay as much as a full eighth as much of a US salary these days.
Of course, H1-Bs are expected to be paid US competitive wages, so many of them are compensated as much as 75% of what the US worker they replaced would be making. And, since they're used to a more frugal standard of living, they send a lot of what they don't need to live on back home to go into the tax coffers of India, rather than the USA. So that someday India may enjoy universal electricity on a reliable basis, refrigerators in every home and perhaps even air conditioning.
That's what made him so dangerous. He developed intellectual theories (e. g., "Shock and Awe") and some fool was idiot enough to allow him to run experiments on them. And that's a large part of why Iraq is the mess it is today and why it has been fertile ground for ISIS.
And, if I'm not mistaken, he retired to become a university professor.
When you burn coal or gas, it doesn't turn magically directly into electricity. The heat of combustion is applied to an intermediary medium (such as steam) that then runs the generators.
Why is it that everybody thinks that the only way to use solar energy is direct from collector to powerlines??????
At first I was shaking my head at how reckless the idea of allowing completely uncertified automation systems on a 3-ton slab of metal hurtling down the road at highway speeds was. Then I remembered this is Florida we're talking about—it certainly can't be any worse than things already are...
Hey now! We're not THAT bad! We have a speed limit of 50MPH in all strip-mall sized parking lots, no more than 75 MPH in school zones, All occupants of handicapped parking spaces are definitely and irrefutably handicapped - either physically, mentally, or morally,
When experiencing road rage, fire at pickup trucks displaying rebel flags in the back window at your own risk. Likewise any vehicle displaying UF or FSU logos or paint jobs, prominent religious messages or "Hillary for Prison" bumper stickers.
It's considered impolite to pass someone on the right when they're passing someone on the median unless you're driving a BMW, Acceleration on yellow is limited to 10Gs and absolutely no more than 5 cards are allowed to go through after the light turns red. And, of course, the ever-popular cut in front of someone in the right lane in order to get off on the exit in front of them even if they're not exiting.
Well, except for Miami and Orlando, where they're not such sticklers for rules. You're on your own there.
Well, technically it does. But the algorithms are the relatively trivial ones that do the neuron implementations, as opposed to the more traditional algorithmic direct solution.
Lots of things are consumable and judging by the fact that they're made, sold, and used despite that, apparently common fucking sense must be in very, very short supply.
Or - just maybe - one might look to achieve a cost/benefit point where the fact that something is consumed is outweighed by the benefits.
Or is it that you have a corporate-style mentality that says that anything that anything that isn't instantly and sinfully profitable within 3 months is simply not worth trying?
You said it yourself. The road is already there. Probably 97% of the time any given square inch of it is open to the sky to absorb whatever radiation might be coming in, assuming reasonable traffic loads, speeds, and spacing.
This is real estate that would otherwise be wasted, whereas open fields might be used for other purposes and just maybe the owners of the roofs might have their own ideas on how to employ that incoming energy.
Crying pork is no excuse. Pork drives lots of things, including fossil fuels. It has no special bearing on a project like this versus any other way the government steals from the taxed and gives to businesses.
Crying futility is just pathetic. Some people will object to alternative energy no matter how it's handled, and I figure that they likely either have a vested interest in fossil fuels or are genetic throwbacks to the cave people who sat outside in the cold because that new-fangled fire stuff was obviously inferior and would never amount to anything. I mean really - what will you do when the wood burns up? What then, eh?
There is absolutely no way that anyone would ever use that sludgy black stuff that oozes out of the ground as the basis for a modern transportation system, I mean, to just get it to burn with any appreciable energy you have to subject it to all sorts of expensive and complicated refining processes that with today's modern 1800's technology simply don't make financial common sense.
I mean you've have to spend years developing proper means of doing the necessary refinement and you'd have to build plants on a massive scale. To say nothing of extraction and transportation of the raw material.
No, my friends, this isn't how a sensible government would spend your tax money - not on something that's so expensive that private concerns would hardly dare touch and with no realistic expectation of ever becoming viable. No, the future is now and always with the cheap economical reliable horse. Personally, I recommend a diverse investment portfolio. Things like buggy whip manufacturers.
I already deleted my account and uninstalled the apps.
I refused to install it in the first place.
Yes, it's convenient. Yes, it's popular.
But it keeps my data in places where I cannot control it. And no matter how innocuous my data might be, someone, somewhere, can probably find at least one way to use it for purposes I don't like.
A huge percentage of the population of the US lives within two hundred miles of the ocean. This includes the entire populations of... Miami, Jacksonville,... and plenty more.
Don't kid yourself. Tampa, too. There's not a single point anywhere in Florida that's more than about 150 miles from the ocean, whether it's Atlantic or Gulf.
This is kind of the reason we dont like hiring people with family money. They have no commitment to the job. We need to be able to plan on the person being around to do their job when the going gets tough.
In other words, we want them desperate, not invested!
If they're invested then they would be committed. What I really want in an employee is someone who's going to take ownership of whatever tasks I give them.
I laugh.
An employee who's desperate won't "take ownership", they'll simply do whatever it takes to keep the job. It is to "ownership" what a confession extracted by torture is to truth.
The level of investment, hence ownership really doesn't relate to the person's desperation. It really doesn't even relate to whether or not they need the pay. To get people to invest in the job, you have to provide an incentive and money is often the least of incentives, even among those who don't have much money to begin with.
All we have to go on in any kind of reasoning about the universe is what we can observe. Every time in the past it seemed like all the jobs would vanish, and for the most pert they did, to be replaced by new jobs. It's happened over and over since the 1600s, and we understand why it happens - the old stuff gets cheap and people want more, different stuff. It may not be general relativity, but it's pretty solid.
I could just as easily say that because the last 99 times I flipped a coin it came up heads that I can expect the 100th time to also come up heads. That's not a law. A law is provable. All that's provable here is a pattern, and patterns often break. There's something missing this time. Always before when jobs were destroyed, the replacement jobs were already known. Automate a loom? Need loom mechanics and operators. Replace human computers with electronic computers? Need operator, programmer, service engineer.
What new jobs are being created right now? You keep suggesting existing professions and low-paying ones at that. The 20-something Geek Squad person who hangs your flat-screen TV isn't a general-purpose handyman. It's someone who's been given a minimal amount of training to do a set job and is paid accordingly. It's not even expected to be a "real" job with life-long growth. One reason why few own or use basic tools is that so many jobs these days now employ special equipment. Even replacing a car battery often requires equipment rarely found in the home garage.
In short, employment growth hasn't been what we've been seeing over the last 20 years, it's been slow shrinkage, both in positions available and in remuneration.
I also expected to see more people willing to pay for personal service, but I lost faith in that. The increasingly-poor segment of the populace can't afford to and the wealthier ones shop at Wal-Mart and use self-checkout even though they don't need to do either one. We presently don't value the human touch as much as we need to in order to put masses of people to work - quite the contrary. Nobody keeps servants any more - even the well-off generally make do with nothing more than an occasional visit from the Maid Brigade.
I present a pessimistic scenario, I agree, but history is full of events where people blithely assumed that tomorrow would work out the same way yesterday did, and paid a heavy price for it.
Since it was up to 9 degrees warmer in Siberia (and other tundra-rich locations) earlier during our interglacial, ~8000 years ago, why would the methane suddenly be released now when it (apparently) wasn't then?
I write apparently since there was no runaway warming caused by methane.
(Yes, the "up to 9 degrees warmer" is according to peer reviewed climate science)
Did anyone say it wasn't? Even if if had been, there's been 8000 years to build up and sequester a fresh supply. It doesn't take that long to create methane, given the right precursors.
5% was what I considered a conservative figure. Others have pointed out that if you want short-term stability, it wasn't even conservative enough. Since I don't have immediate need for asset stability, I do get better than 5%/
But you've admitted that you're a professional short-term trader. A lot of us would prefer to spend less time on our investments than that. Indeed, investment advisers assert that short-term trading is a great way for most people to get rich quick and get poor quicker over the long haul, whereas a longer-term buy-and-hold strategy paid my mortgage.
I don't want to sound cruel, but "new jobs will appear" isn't one of the basic laws of the Universe. Or, as they say on Wall Street, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results".
Given capable enough automation, virtually any job can be automated, even hair styling (and I'll bet you'll find at least one automated styler project already if you do a web search, although obviously not yet a practical one). Even migrant stoop labor has been threatened as farm robots have been developed that can detect ripe/unripe produce and harvest items that were formerly too awkward or fragile for automation.
You might think that even an automated hair styler at least needs someone to design new styles, but remember that "full service" is rarely an option these days. We're already accustomed to being unpaid gas pumpers (outside of a few states anyway), shoe shiners, grocery checkout people, and other things that used to be done for us by other people.
It is true that manufacturing jobs are going begging, but a lot of that is because people stopped going into manufacturing once the bulk of the jobs went offshore. When they come back,they're highly automated, and likely to become moreso, so many of us consider manufacturing as yet another occupation whose long-term security is doubtful.
Handyman? We like in a world where literally "Ending is better than Mending" and have been increasingly so for decades now. It costs more to repair than to replace.
I too believe that everyone can be good at something, but the question is whether that something will earn a living. Even as it is, hair stylists tend to run the bottom of the wage scale.
I hope for the best, but we have no assurance we'll get it, so it's prudent to consider the worst and what we might do to avoid it.
Slashdot Mirror
For the benefit of the acronym-annoyed, PPI=Proton Pump Inhibitor.
PPIs suppress acid generation, but don't do anything for acid that's already present. So you either have to take them in advance or use one of the products that combines a traditional antacid remedy with them to neutralize what's there and keep new acid from coming in. Or take your own antacid + PPI inhibitor (check with your doctor, though).
PPIs are wonderful. They allow me to eat and drink things that taste great but have a prohibitive acid cost (grape juice, for example). Stuff that traditional antacids could barely touch.
But these and other issues with PPIs have been known or suspected for quite some time. I try to avoid overdoing things, and since only when I consume known antagonists do I need acid suppression they are a real boon for me.
For the less fortunate who have full-time acid maintenance problems, this news is not unexpected, I think, but hardly comforting and it indicates that further work on acid regulation is in order.
There's a PARTY over there! Let's Go!
I'd never considered using squashfs as a backup mechanism, but if it works for you...
My Red Hat tar utility does support sparse files, although it's turned off by default, I think. A compressed tarball wouldn't care about holes, since holes compress down to virtually nothing anyway. The real issue is more in how well the receiving filesystem will honor the holes when the files are transferred into it.
My day-to-day backups are based on Bacula, which supports sparse files. Most of my alternative strategies are for short-term safety or long-term image storage.
I'm sorry to say that most of the commercial backup products I've worked with over the years have let me down at the worst possible times. Linux tar has not, ZIP has not, as long as I don't have multi-volume ZIPs, and bacula files have not. In addition to being reliable and free, you can work with them on virtually any platform and not get nuked by OS, hardware, or data version issues.
There are many tricks. Personally, I like to tar stuff or do a ZIP-with-delete and keep it for a day or 3 before removal. For large quantities of data, that can take a while, though, so another possibility if one is working with snapshot-capable storage management is to snapshot it and work "offline" on the snapshot. I do this on VM images, for example.
Hot mirrors updated just infrequently enough that you can break the link before the damage propagates isn't a bad idea, either. Filesystems with "time machine" rollback capabilities, too.
You can pretty well bet that a backup is never as usable as it's supposed to be. It's going to be outdated, corrupted, or something critical won't be in it.
To be really viable, you need to devote the same level of attention to backup/restore (accent on the restore) as you do on security management. There is a very strong case for keeping an entire server or set of servers to run frequent checks on backups, including bare-metal restores, and these days, a spare computer or 6 is not a bank-breaking investment any more if your data means anything to you. I also like to employ multiple types of backup media on the premise that not all types of hardware will be affected equally by most failures.
At least apparently they only lost a few hours worth of work, and although potentially a large amount of data, it's a job that is inherently distributed among many disgruntled clients. Other organizations haven't been so fortunate.
So, should I consider a career in retrophrenology?
Yeah, no thanks. I'll compete with anything any other programmer can muster. If they provide a better value proposition, then I should reconsider my competitive advantages and lower my requisite salary. I do not need the government dictating my wage to me. I didn't vote communist, ever.
I'm a US Citizen
You are a US idiot.
Indian workers do not work for less because they are kind and generous. They work less because they don't have a nanny-state government that steals a lot of their income and uses it to build electrical grids, water treatment systems, inspect chemical plants in Bhopal or pay police officials salaries that discourage them from being for sale to the highest bidder. They don't have an incorruptible system of inspectors to ensure the safety of the food, water, electrical systems or whatever. They're not QUITE the Libertarian paradise where the only thing you have to pay for are the things you buy directly - including protection from your neighbors - but they pay cardboard prices for cardboard infrastructure. And, unlike China, if you poison a batch of food and neglect to pay your bribes, they won't execute you in India.
They also don't generally have private automobiles, air conditiong or often even refrigerators. Detached housing is for the wealthy - for ordinary workers you jam into a tenement and ride a crowded bus over a jammed-up road that's more pothole than pavement. Or, if you are lucky, your employer sends a shuttle because drivers are cheap and they'd prefer you make it to work without the risks of self-transportation.
The cost of a single lunch at Burger King would feed you for a week in Bangalore, but I hope you like a steady diet of mostly beans and rice.
The upshot of this is that in the year 2000, an Indian worker could live decently on ONE TENTH the income of a US worker (about 1 lakh per year of experience, and generally 5 years or less experience). Just try lowering your requisite salary to compete with that.
Indian workers are not stupid, however and since then, they've been aggressively raising their own requisite salaries to the point that you might have to pay as much as a full eighth as much of a US salary these days.
Of course, H1-Bs are expected to be paid US competitive wages, so many of them are compensated as much as 75% of what the US worker they replaced would be making. And, since they're used to a more frugal standard of living, they send a lot of what they don't need to live on back home to go into the tax coffers of India, rather than the USA. So that someday India may enjoy universal electricity on a reliable basis, refrigerators in every home and perhaps even air conditioning.
Farscape.
When my wife heard that Netflix was pulling Farscape, she went on a binge.
Ended up buying the whole series on disc. It and Star Trek are 2 shows that she can watch over and over ad infinitum.
The Star Trek discs are too expensive, though.
I'm willing to bet that the original Nook e-reader used it too - the non-WiFi eInk version.
Dated it may be, but the battery life is a lot better than on tablet Nooks.
Rumsfeld is an intellectual.
That's what made him so dangerous. He developed intellectual theories (e. g., "Shock and Awe") and some fool was idiot enough to allow him to run experiments on them. And that's a large part of why Iraq is the mess it is today and why it has been fertile ground for ISIS.
And, if I'm not mistaken, he retired to become a university professor.
When you burn coal or gas, it doesn't turn magically directly into electricity. The heat of combustion is applied to an intermediary medium (such as steam) that then runs the generators.
Why is it that everybody thinks that the only way to use solar energy is direct from collector to powerlines??????
I hope not literally mobile.
The last thing we need when driving is to have Google pop up a bunch of recipes. Restaurants, yes, cooking info, not very likely.
Save the recipe suggestions for when the mobile isn't mobile. In fact, pretty much anywhere that isn't home. Unless explicitly asked for, anyway.
At first I was shaking my head at how reckless the idea of allowing completely uncertified automation systems on a 3-ton slab of metal hurtling down the road at highway speeds was. Then I remembered this is Florida we're talking about—it certainly can't be any worse than things already are...
Hey now! We're not THAT bad! We have a speed limit of 50MPH in all strip-mall sized parking lots, no more than 75 MPH in school zones, All occupants of handicapped parking spaces are definitely and irrefutably handicapped - either physically, mentally, or morally,
When experiencing road rage, fire at pickup trucks displaying rebel flags in the back window at your own risk. Likewise any vehicle displaying UF or FSU logos or paint jobs, prominent religious messages or "Hillary for Prison" bumper stickers.
It's considered impolite to pass someone on the right when they're passing someone on the median unless you're driving a BMW, Acceleration on yellow is limited to 10Gs and absolutely no more than 5 cards are allowed to go through after the light turns red. And, of course, the ever-popular cut in front of someone in the right lane in order to get off on the exit in front of them even if they're not exiting.
Well, except for Miami and Orlando, where they're not such sticklers for rules. You're on your own there.
As a hypochondriac I'd be scared to take this test. Best case, I have one or all of these diseases. Worst case, I have no clue what I'm dying from.
No, worst-case, you have all those diseases PLUS you're dying from ones that it can't test for!
Well, technically it does. But the algorithms are the relatively trivial ones that do the neuron implementations, as opposed to the more traditional algorithmic direct solution.
You mis-spelled $50,000.
Lots of things are consumable and judging by the fact that they're made, sold, and used despite that, apparently common fucking sense must be in very, very short supply.
Or - just maybe - one might look to achieve a cost/benefit point where the fact that something is consumed is outweighed by the benefits.
Or is it that you have a corporate-style mentality that says that anything that anything that isn't instantly and sinfully profitable within 3 months is simply not worth trying?
Get a brain, Pinky.
You said it yourself. The road is already there. Probably 97% of the time any given square inch of it is open to the sky to absorb whatever radiation might be coming in, assuming reasonable traffic loads, speeds, and spacing.
This is real estate that would otherwise be wasted, whereas open fields might be used for other purposes and just maybe the owners of the roofs might have their own ideas on how to employ that incoming energy.
Crying pork is no excuse. Pork drives lots of things, including fossil fuels. It has no special bearing on a project like this versus any other way the government steals from the taxed and gives to businesses.
Crying futility is just pathetic. Some people will object to alternative energy no matter how it's handled, and I figure that they likely either have a vested interest in fossil fuels or are genetic throwbacks to the cave people who sat outside in the cold because that new-fangled fire stuff was obviously inferior and would never amount to anything. I mean really - what will you do when the wood burns up? What then, eh?
There is absolutely no way that anyone would ever use that sludgy black stuff that oozes out of the ground as the basis for a modern transportation system, I mean, to just get it to burn with any appreciable energy you have to subject it to all sorts of expensive and complicated refining processes that with today's modern 1800's technology simply don't make financial common sense.
I mean you've have to spend years developing proper means of doing the necessary refinement and you'd have to build plants on a massive scale. To say nothing of extraction and transportation of the raw material.
No, my friends, this isn't how a sensible government would spend your tax money - not on something that's so expensive that private concerns would hardly dare touch and with no realistic expectation of ever becoming viable. No, the future is now and always with the cheap economical reliable horse. Personally, I recommend a diverse investment portfolio. Things like buggy whip manufacturers.
----
Percival Dunwoody, Idiot Time Traveller
I already deleted my account and uninstalled the apps.
I refused to install it in the first place.
Yes, it's convenient. Yes, it's popular.
But it keeps my data in places where I cannot control it. And no matter how innocuous my data might be, someone, somewhere, can probably find at least one way to use it for purposes I don't like.
A huge percentage of the population of the US lives within two hundred miles of the ocean. This includes the entire populations of ... Miami, Jacksonville, ... and plenty more.
Don't kid yourself. Tampa, too. There's not a single point anywhere in Florida that's more than about 150 miles from the ocean, whether it's Atlantic or Gulf.
This is kind of the reason we dont like hiring people with family money. They have no commitment to the job. We need to be able to plan on the person being around to do their job when the going gets tough.
In other words, we want them desperate, not invested!
If they're invested then they would be committed. What I really want in an employee is someone who's going to take ownership of whatever tasks I give them.
I laugh.
An employee who's desperate won't "take ownership", they'll simply do whatever it takes to keep the job. It is to "ownership" what a confession extracted by torture is to truth.
The level of investment, hence ownership really doesn't relate to the person's desperation. It really doesn't even relate to whether or not they need the pay. To get people to invest in the job, you have to provide an incentive and money is often the least of incentives, even among those who don't have much money to begin with.
All we have to go on in any kind of reasoning about the universe is what we can observe. Every time in the past it seemed like all the jobs would vanish, and for the most pert they did, to be replaced by new jobs. It's happened over and over since the 1600s, and we understand why it happens - the old stuff gets cheap and people want more, different stuff. It may not be general relativity, but it's pretty solid.
I could just as easily say that because the last 99 times I flipped a coin it came up heads that I can expect the 100th time to also come up heads. That's not a law. A law is provable. All that's provable here is a pattern, and patterns often break. There's something missing this time. Always before when jobs were destroyed, the replacement jobs were already known. Automate a loom? Need loom mechanics and operators. Replace human computers with electronic computers? Need operator, programmer, service engineer.
What new jobs are being created right now? You keep suggesting existing professions and low-paying ones at that. The 20-something Geek Squad person who hangs your flat-screen TV isn't a general-purpose handyman. It's someone who's been given a minimal amount of training to do a set job and is paid accordingly. It's not even expected to be a "real" job with life-long growth. One reason why few own or use basic tools is that so many jobs these days now employ special equipment. Even replacing a car battery often requires equipment rarely found in the home garage.
In short, employment growth hasn't been what we've been seeing over the last 20 years, it's been slow shrinkage, both in positions available and in remuneration.
I also expected to see more people willing to pay for personal service, but I lost faith in that. The increasingly-poor segment of the populace can't afford to and the wealthier ones shop at Wal-Mart and use self-checkout even though they don't need to do either one. We presently don't value the human touch as much as we need to in order to put masses of people to work - quite the contrary. Nobody keeps servants any more - even the well-off generally make do with nothing more than an occasional visit from the Maid Brigade.
I present a pessimistic scenario, I agree, but history is full of events where people blithely assumed that tomorrow would work out the same way yesterday did, and paid a heavy price for it.
Since it was up to 9 degrees warmer in Siberia (and other tundra-rich locations) earlier during our interglacial, ~8000 years ago, why would the methane suddenly be released now when it (apparently) wasn't then?
I write apparently since there was no runaway warming caused by methane.
(Yes, the "up to 9 degrees warmer" is according to peer reviewed climate science)
Did anyone say it wasn't? Even if if had been, there's been 8000 years to build up and sequester a fresh supply. It doesn't take that long to create methane, given the right precursors.
5% was what I considered a conservative figure. Others have pointed out that if you want short-term stability, it wasn't even conservative enough. Since I don't have immediate need for asset stability, I do get better than 5%/
But you've admitted that you're a professional short-term trader. A lot of us would prefer to spend less time on our investments than that. Indeed, investment advisers assert that short-term trading is a great way for most people to get rich quick and get poor quicker over the long haul, whereas a longer-term buy-and-hold strategy paid my mortgage.
I don't want to sound cruel, but "new jobs will appear" isn't one of the basic laws of the Universe. Or, as they say on Wall Street, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results".
Given capable enough automation, virtually any job can be automated, even hair styling (and I'll bet you'll find at least one automated styler project already if you do a web search, although obviously not yet a practical one). Even migrant stoop labor has been threatened as farm robots have been developed that can detect ripe/unripe produce and harvest items that were formerly too awkward or fragile for automation.
You might think that even an automated hair styler at least needs someone to design new styles, but remember that "full service" is rarely an option these days. We're already accustomed to being unpaid gas pumpers (outside of a few states anyway), shoe shiners, grocery checkout people, and other things that used to be done for us by other people.
It is true that manufacturing jobs are going begging, but a lot of that is because people stopped going into manufacturing once the bulk of the jobs went offshore. When they come back,they're highly automated, and likely to become moreso, so many of us consider manufacturing as yet another occupation whose long-term security is doubtful.
Handyman? We like in a world where literally "Ending is better than Mending" and have been increasingly so for decades now. It costs more to repair than to replace.
I too believe that everyone can be good at something, but the question is whether that something will earn a living. Even as it is, hair stylists tend to run the bottom of the wage scale.
I hope for the best, but we have no assurance we'll get it, so it's prudent to consider the worst and what we might do to avoid it.