I won't hazard a guess as to the accuracy of the Forrester article. They seem pretty hit-or-miss on their predictions, which is probably why they keep shrinking as a company.
That said, it doesn't seem unreasonable that there will be a sigificant drop in software engineers over the next ten years. Why? Because there is so much research going into technologies to transform business workflow more quickly into customized (but not custom) applications for managing business processes. There are an enormous number of developers employed doing precisely that in one way or another, whether its a VB program for managing customer contacts, or a staff of Java developers building internally developed applications on data warehousing applications. All of that stuff is going to become much easier to transform from business requirements to final application. Not drag and drop, but a staff of ten may drop to a staff of five or six.
There will be a lot of jobs for senior level engineers, far less than now for entry-level positions. For those of you who are thinking you may be in one of those positions in ten years, well thats probably good or bad. Bad thing is, there'll be fewer positions to fill, but the upside is that it will probably turn the tide of people away from thinking CS is a quick and easy road to a high paying job -- and it'll be easier to progress up the ladder to senior and principal positions. I know a lot of guys now who get stuck with a virtual glass ceiling because the ratio of engineers to senior or principal engineers is so out of whack, companies just don't have that many positions for them.
I suspect a lot of software development positions will become more business-specific, as well. It'll be expected that anyone over a certain level has an ability to understand and work with the business side of a particular corporate structure. Foul smelling unkempt hacker types may have a harder time finding jobs in that kind of a market. But from a reformed foul smelling hacker type, its a lot easier to get laid if you clean up your style a bit.;-)
No offense, but maybe you should watch it first, and people moderating your post should as well...
Because yes, they've got space fighters -- ones at least on the surface obeying the laws of physics (engines only on when accellerating, maneuvering jets, etc... including very cool combat moves where they are shooting sideways and backwards because interia is continuing to carry them on the path they'd previously been on).
I'm not sure what you mean by serious kinetic kill weapons -- most of what they are using appears to be standard explosive missiles which kill via schrapnel, standard guns, and the big weapons are all nuclear.
There's no phasers or such nonsense, if thats what you're concerned about.
Actually, I've gotten incredible photos with a very inexpensive 2 megapixel Fuji piece of crap digital camera, the same way I've done it with many cameras over the years (and as a point of reference, I went to school for this, this is not an IANAP thing...)
The trick to getting photos like that with any camera is just getting it to take as long an exposure as possible. On most cameras the best thing to do is prop the camera up on a very stable surface, shut the flash off forcibly, and set it to use the self timer. Push the button and step back from the camera. Even the very inexpensive digital cameras will increase exposure time to get proper illumination, the trick is to get a stable image. Stable surface + self timer makes up for a lack of a remote shutter release. Check the image, see if you got an exposure you can work with. If the camera metered weird, adjust where its pointing to get it to expose better. Even if the framing is weird, you can crop later in the computer.
You make a very good point, which most people really don't understand, I think. You can get pictures as good as a $1000 digital camera from a $150 analog -- and the film+processing cost between the two translates to so many shots, most people will take years to make up the difference... years in which the digital gets obsolete, and the SLR doesn't.
The biggest benefit to digital to an amateur photographer is the ability to take LOTS of pictures -- thats what makes you better. And, you carrying film around. Several years ago I spent a month in China, and shot over 1000 images on four or five smartmedia cards. That sure beats 50 rolls of film!
Even more important, Tivo pays every time a unit upgrades itself. The core of the problem from their standpoint is a hard cost when someone installs an image onto their Tivo that isn't the current software their Tivo should have. At a minimum, a very long download is wasted to get the newer version, and if you go back too far in versions, the Tivo won't upgrade properly, and they pay for tech support calls.
This is kind of a silly thing for people to get worked up over, anyway. If you're hacking your Tivo, pull the drive out and image it. It takes maybe twenty minutes, and I've got images of all the different versions I've had squirreled away on a DVD (they're only 300 meg each, but I've got 5-6 of them). If you're going to be hacking your Tivo, at least take some precautions.
The only case I see the availability of those images being useful is in the case of a catastrophic drive failure, where you need to build a new drive from scratch.
To do that ISPs need to allow SMTP authenticated users to send e-mail with any domain name attached.
I have to run my own e-mail server, because Comcast (my cable modem provider) doesn't allow me to send outgoing e-mails with my real e-mail address, its go to be @comcast.net or whatever their domain is.
If they block port 25, e-mail is effectively shut off for me as a usable technology on the Internet, and I'll be stuck either having to tunnel the e-mail to someone who doesn't have it blocked, or change ISPs.
I'm aware of Embry-Riddle -- my bother got his license, CFI, etc from there. Thats why I know that the cost of getting the licensing and certification to be a commercial pilot isn't outrageously high, certainly when you take into account the much higher cost of getting a medical degree to make a comparable salary. And fact of the matter is, the majority of pilots in the US are still ex-military.
Some quick searches seem to put it somewhere between 65% and 75%.
Most of them are ex-military types, we've already paid for their training. Those who aren't know its not THAT expensive to get your certification for multi-engine passenger jets. Not compared to what a masters or doctorate education costs.
Just because you can do something doesn't make it right or legal.
If the government tells you you can't use one of those, its real simple, don't use them. Use it and suffer the penalty!
Why the hell should the taxpayers shoulder the massive costs of building a device like that which would be completely immune to misuse? Does it add $1000 per? $10000 per? How much per emergency vehicle? In a town of ten or twenty thousand people with, say, 30 lights, you want the town to give up a teacher or ten because you've got some high and mighty belief that if people CAN do something they SHOULD?
Thats not Score:4 Insightful, it should be Score:0 Retarded.
Um, of any of the times I've been there and of all the people I talked to the only people who ever gave any indication that they believed for a second their government was being upfront with them and not telling them lies was the occasional tour guide when I decided to go on a tour somewhere. All of them are government employees, and a number of them got across pretty clearly with their faces that they knew it was a load of crap but they had to say it.
There is certainly the angry minority who likes to push the buttons of those in power, just as there are here, but the average chinese citizen isn't nearly as stupid as you seem to think they are.
You have to admit that as both a government and as a society we're awfully good at doing things that are worthy of making fun of us.
NASA spending millions to develop a space pen may not be true, but it certainly sounds like something NASA would do. Thats the key component on a humorous witty comment like the original poster made.
Artists don't get a penny, not a single one, from everything sold at BMG. They negotiate flat fees with the lables directly for the use of their catalog, and thats the extent of it.
A user downloading 10 gig of music over WinMX, finding two CDs they like and going out and buying those on a whim gets more money to the artists than buying $1000 worth of CDs from BMG.
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I won't hazard a guess as to the accuracy of the Forrester article. They seem pretty hit-or-miss on their predictions, which is probably why they keep shrinking as a company.
;-)
That said, it doesn't seem unreasonable that there will be a sigificant drop in software engineers over the next ten years. Why? Because there is so much research going into technologies to transform business workflow more quickly into customized (but not custom) applications for managing business processes. There are an enormous number of developers employed doing precisely that in one way or another, whether its a VB program for managing customer contacts, or a staff of Java developers building internally developed applications on data warehousing applications. All of that stuff is going to become much easier to transform from business requirements to final application. Not drag and drop, but a staff of ten may drop to a staff of five or six.
There will be a lot of jobs for senior level engineers, far less than now for entry-level positions. For those of you who are thinking you may be in one of those positions in ten years, well thats probably good or bad. Bad thing is, there'll be fewer positions to fill, but the upside is that it will probably turn the tide of people away from thinking CS is a quick and easy road to a high paying job -- and it'll be easier to progress up the ladder to senior and principal positions. I know a lot of guys now who get stuck with a virtual glass ceiling because the ratio of engineers to senior or principal engineers is so out of whack, companies just don't have that many positions for them.
I suspect a lot of software development positions will become more business-specific, as well. It'll be expected that anyone over a certain level has an ability to understand and work with the business side of a particular corporate structure. Foul smelling unkempt hacker types may have a harder time finding jobs in that kind of a market. But from a reformed foul smelling hacker type, its a lot easier to get laid if you clean up your style a bit.
You mean like your smoke detectors?
No offense, but maybe you should watch it first, and people moderating your post should as well...
Because yes, they've got space fighters -- ones at least on the surface obeying the laws of physics (engines only on when accellerating, maneuvering jets, etc... including very cool combat moves where they are shooting sideways and backwards because interia is continuing to carry them on the path they'd previously been on).
I'm not sure what you mean by serious kinetic kill weapons -- most of what they are using appears to be standard explosive missiles which kill via schrapnel, standard guns, and the big weapons are all nuclear.
There's no phasers or such nonsense, if thats what you're concerned about.
Actually, I've gotten incredible photos with a very inexpensive 2 megapixel Fuji piece of crap digital camera, the same way I've done it with many cameras over the years (and as a point of reference, I went to school for this, this is not an IANAP thing...)
The trick to getting photos like that with any camera is just getting it to take as long an exposure as possible. On most cameras the best thing to do is prop the camera up on a very stable surface, shut the flash off forcibly, and set it to use the self timer. Push the button and step back from the camera. Even the very inexpensive digital cameras will increase exposure time to get proper illumination, the trick is to get a stable image. Stable surface + self timer makes up for a lack of a remote shutter release. Check the image, see if you got an exposure you can work with. If the camera metered weird, adjust where its pointing to get it to expose better. Even if the framing is weird, you can crop later in the computer.
You make a very good point, which most people really don't understand, I think. You can get pictures as good as a $1000 digital camera from a $150 analog -- and the film+processing cost between the two translates to so many shots, most people will take years to make up the difference... years in which the digital gets obsolete, and the SLR doesn't.
The biggest benefit to digital to an amateur photographer is the ability to take LOTS of pictures -- thats what makes you better. And, you carrying film around. Several years ago I spent a month in China, and shot over 1000 images on four or five smartmedia cards. That sure beats 50 rolls of film!
Even more important, Tivo pays every time a unit upgrades itself. The core of the problem from their standpoint is a hard cost when someone installs an image onto their Tivo that isn't the current software their Tivo should have. At a minimum, a very long download is wasted to get the newer version, and if you go back too far in versions, the Tivo won't upgrade properly, and they pay for tech support calls.
This is kind of a silly thing for people to get worked up over, anyway. If you're hacking your Tivo, pull the drive out and image it. It takes maybe twenty minutes, and I've got images of all the different versions I've had squirreled away on a DVD (they're only 300 meg each, but I've got 5-6 of them). If you're going to be hacking your Tivo, at least take some precautions.
The only case I see the availability of those images being useful is in the case of a catastrophic drive failure, where you need to build a new drive from scratch.
To do that ISPs need to allow SMTP authenticated users to send e-mail with any domain name attached.
I have to run my own e-mail server, because Comcast (my cable modem provider) doesn't allow me to send outgoing e-mails with my real e-mail address, its go to be @comcast.net or whatever their domain is.
If they block port 25, e-mail is effectively shut off for me as a usable technology on the Internet, and I'll be stuck either having to tunnel the e-mail to someone who doesn't have it blocked, or change ISPs.
Nor did it stop me from having sex with your... nevermind, this is going nowhere.
No, Real Genius.
They pay for the trucks, wear and tear, gas, etc...
You do realize truck drivers can make nearly that, too, right? Most of them don't have to own the truck, either.
I'm sure you can find guys out there still using slide rules, too.
:)
Doesn't mean it makes any sense.
You're showing it to the wrong girls then, because it worked for me.
People in India don't pay $1500 a month for a studio in a bad part of town.
People who live around MIT do.
I had a four and a half hour commute today because my *very* well paid job in Cambridge doesn't pay me enough to live within 35 miles of the city.
And that did a whole lot of justice in the case of people like O.J. Simpson.
I wouldn't knock the Norweigan system just because its not like ours. Our country isn't exactly a pinnacle of legal fairness, you know.
Yeah, because everyone knows you need a net connection to do that right.
I'm not sure thats the cratered surface of a full moon they're talking about.
I'm aware of Embry-Riddle -- my bother got his license, CFI, etc from there. Thats why I know that the cost of getting the licensing and certification to be a commercial pilot isn't outrageously high, certainly when you take into account the much higher cost of getting a medical degree to make a comparable salary. And fact of the matter is, the majority of pilots in the US are still ex-military.
Some quick searches seem to put it somewhere between 65% and 75%.
Most of them are ex-military types, we've already paid for their training. Those who aren't know its not THAT expensive to get your certification for multi-engine passenger jets. Not compared to what a masters or doctorate education costs.
This one surpised me, and is a *great* improvement if you run X-programs:
X autolauches now.
No more opening up X, and starting a program from a terminal window, just start it from its icon like normal and X starts right up.
Just because you can do something doesn't make it right or legal.
If the government tells you you can't use one of those, its real simple, don't use them. Use it and suffer the penalty!
Why the hell should the taxpayers shoulder the massive costs of building a device like that which would be completely immune to misuse? Does it add $1000 per? $10000 per? How much per emergency vehicle? In a town of ten or twenty thousand people with, say, 30 lights, you want the town to give up a teacher or ten because you've got some high and mighty belief that if people CAN do something they SHOULD?
Thats not Score:4 Insightful, it should be Score:0 Retarded.
Um, of any of the times I've been there and of all the people I talked to the only people who ever gave any indication that they believed for a second their government was being upfront with them and not telling them lies was the occasional tour guide when I decided to go on a tour somewhere. All of them are government employees, and a number of them got across pretty clearly with their faces that they knew it was a load of crap but they had to say it.
There is certainly the angry minority who likes to push the buttons of those in power, just as there are here, but the average chinese citizen isn't nearly as stupid as you seem to think they are.
You just like that you can juuuuust see her panties, admit it.
No the real reason is no one in an office environment gives a crap about what you are working on or wants to hear it.
Plus your wife might bust you having cybersex in an AOL chat room if you were actually talking to the computer.
I hate to further the overlitigousness of our country, but thats a situation where you should've gotten a lawyer involved.
You have to admit that as both a government and as a society we're awfully good at doing things that are worthy of making fun of us.
NASA spending millions to develop a space pen may not be true, but it certainly sounds like something NASA would do. Thats the key component on a humorous witty comment like the original poster made.
Artists don't get a penny, not a single one, from everything sold at BMG. They negotiate flat fees with the lables directly for the use of their catalog, and thats the extent of it.
A user downloading 10 gig of music over WinMX, finding two CDs they like and going out and buying those on a whim gets more money to the artists than buying $1000 worth of CDs from BMG.