"As the cost of information falls, it becomes increasingly harder to control who knows what. The foundation of successful conspiracies is the control of critical information by small, selected groups of individuals.... an increasingly difficult strategy in an era of cheap, easy access to information."
Social networking is peaking in growth, ergo it's entering a consolidation phase. Google's OpenSocial APi release is a brilliant counter-strategy (for once). FaceBook's API was a good gamble into a peaking market but I think Google has outdone them.
My prediction on FaceBook's growth rate BEFORE the Google OpenSocial API release.
The "War On the Unexpected" is a natural consequence of a society that's differentiating in all directions. It's an economic consequence. It's not just national security, the job market has the same effect. We're well into a period of risk adversity.
"The IT Market can be considered, in gestalt, as being an S-curve market with the year 2000-2001 ( the Dot Com Crash ) as its inflection point...
"But in the post-Crash world, profit margins on mass-produced products have fallen. Niche markets with high profit margins are sought after, but many companies still upgrade legacy products for decreasing profit margins (Oracle, Microsoft come to mind). The IT market is still in a slow-motion shakeout period, but I suspect that few IT workers believe it"
I've posted this before and I suppose few people believe it but rate of growth in the social networking sites has TOPPED OUT. Growth is declining. Once a product passes through its growth inflection point, its potential changes from "infinite" to "bounded".
The boundaries for $$$ in social networking have been roughly established over the past 18 months. Maybe somebody at Microsoft actually has MBA knowledge, did the numbers and figured this out instead buying into hype.
The growth rate of the Wikipedia Meme peaked out 18 months ago. I sincerely doubt that it was due to its lack of credibility but simply a manifestation of peak in general Internet growth. The inflection points in growth for several trends (social networking, craiglist, wikipedia, etc) are almost concurrent, indicating that rate of growth of the user-based Internet peaked in 2006.
The rate of growth for most of the social networking sites peaked in late 2006, almost a year ago. The referenced article is a reverberation of the inflection point.
I predicted MySpace's peak in growth early in 2006, almost coincident to when it occurred. The introduction of Facebook's third party API is a sign of an industry entering a consolidated and standardization phase.
I extrapolated problems at IBM based on mythical man-month methodology and my personal experience with IBM's Business partners during the past three years. I'm surprised that I hit so close to the mark. My extrapolations from two months ago -
"Now let's examine IBM and IBM's Businss Partner strategies. IBM Tool Certifications play a *major* role in IBM's project assignments to Business Partners. In other words, the strategy is moving in the opposite direction from what needs to happen if we want higher success rates for increasingly complex projects.
A larger slice of that finite worker domain knowledge is focused on vocational abilities, not on business knowledge. And it appears that IBM has shifted their own internal strategies towards increasingly specialized workers, so that more workers are involved on a given project, but for less time and work.
That's just can't work right over an increasing scale of complexity and project size, since it multiplies communcation costs at an exponential rate."
I believe the Microsoft attempted a viral marketing / meme manipulation scheme over the Internet, but I can't prove it. It's getting harder and harder to "advertise", partly because of the flood of information from the IT age, partly due to increasing resistence to memetic propagation.
It's quite likely that Wikipedia passed through its growth inflection point in 2006. Here's the graphs. Nielson's blogpulse still shows growth, but it's a shorter term measure and may be more indicative of the current controversy than long-term growth rate.
My (admittedly dicey) prediction from eight months ago, that Blu-Ray would become the clear standard within one year, based on keyword analysis Dejanews.com -
I wrote this last month. It's nice to see the topic on Slashdot. America has become a culture of deception but most Americans trick themselves into not believing their own lack of integrity. That's why the USA is running $1 trillion trade deficits and $1 trillion federal deficits. There's absolutely NO intention of honoring debts.
I just quit participating. I sold my house, I paid off everything, I sit at my parent's house and play pool now. With twenty years of solid IT experience, I should have a real position, but it's all about paranoia and politics, lying to companies, lying to women. Nobody wants honesty.
The 40% figure is close to my own experience since the Dotcom Crash. I don't classify it as "lying", though, but as "deceit". And I've learned to be far more critical in evaluating new job positions. My latest experiences in December -
Yes, it's another bubble which can ultimately be traced back to fiat money even if Google's stock can't see that its growth inflection point has passed and competition (such as specialized, differentiated engines) is growing. I've been testing out http://www.hakia.com/ and it is occasionally closer to what I'm searching for than Google.
I was the subject of a great deal of hostility from the Delphi community when I posted this prediction back in 1999. I loved Delphi, it was the best tool I've ever used but you'd think that "rational engineers" could distinguish between personal feelings and market forces.
There was clearly demand for a cross-platform version but Borland waited too long and java ate the window of opportunity.
A series of entries, logs & graphics about how I detected suspicious network traffic. I'm hoping to expand it into a Defcon 15 submission on click fraud.
Slashdot Mirror
This was predictable based on strategic considerations of the cost of information versus the cost of privacy. I predicted it almost two years ago.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=cost_of_information_versus_cost
"As the cost of information falls, it becomes increasingly harder to control who knows what. The foundation of successful conspiracies is the control of critical information by small, selected groups of individuals.... an increasingly difficult strategy in an era of cheap, easy access to information."
Social networking is peaking in growth, ergo it's entering a consolidation phase. Google's OpenSocial APi release is a brilliant counter-strategy (for once). FaceBook's API was a good gamble into a peaking market but I think Google has outdone them.
My prediction on FaceBook's growth rate BEFORE the Google OpenSocial API release.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=social_networking_meme
The "War On the Unexpected" is a natural consequence of a society that's differentiating in all directions. It's an economic consequence. It's not just national security, the job market has the same effect. We're well into a period of risk adversity.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=the_cultural_diffusion_resurrected
I posted this in Sept, 2006, although I floated the concept a year before at Defcon, and originally when I was an instructor at ITT in 1997.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=evolution_of_the_it_market
"The IT Market can be considered, in gestalt, as being an S-curve market with the year 2000-2001 ( the Dot Com Crash ) as its inflection point...
"But in the post-Crash world, profit margins on mass-produced products have fallen. Niche markets with high profit margins are sought after, but many companies still upgrade legacy products for decreasing profit margins (Oracle, Microsoft come to mind). The IT market is still in a slow-motion shakeout period, but I suspect that few IT workers believe it"
I've posted this before and I suppose few people believe it but rate of growth in the social networking sites has TOPPED OUT. Growth is declining. Once a product passes through its growth inflection point, its potential changes from "infinite" to "bounded".
The boundaries for $$$ in social networking have been roughly established over the past 18 months. Maybe somebody at Microsoft actually has MBA knowledge, did the numbers and figured this out instead buying into hype.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=social_networking_meme_verified
Of course, what do I know? I'm just an old guy that doesn't bother memorizing java syntax anymore.
The idea that 5 million dumb people guessing is better than 5 smart people planning.
The growth rate of the Wikipedia Meme peaked out 18 months ago. I sincerely doubt that it was due to its lack of credibility but simply a manifestation of peak in general Internet growth. The inflection points in growth for several trends (social networking, craiglist, wikipedia, etc) are almost concurrent, indicating that rate of growth of the user-based Internet peaked in 2006.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=wikipedia_meme
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_state_change
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change_part_ii
Real-life example of click fraud detected through a moderately unusual method -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/Weblog?catname=%2FClickFraud
The rate of growth for most of the social networking sites peaked in late 2006, almost a year ago. The referenced article is a reverberation of the inflection point.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=social_networking_meme_verified
I predicted MySpace's peak in growth early in 2006, almost coincident to when it occurred. The introduction of Facebook's third party API is a sign of an industry entering a consolidated and standardization phase.
Rate of growth looks like it's decelerating for Ubuntu.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu
I extrapolated problems at IBM based on mythical man-month methodology and my personal experience with IBM's Business partners during the past three years. I'm surprised that I hit so close to the mark. My extrapolations from two months ago -
r y=crosscutting_information_domains
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
"Now let's examine IBM and IBM's Businss Partner strategies. IBM Tool Certifications play a *major* role in IBM's project assignments to Business Partners. In other words, the strategy is moving in the opposite direction from what needs to happen if we want higher success rates for increasingly complex projects.
A larger slice of that finite worker domain knowledge is focused on vocational abilities, not on business knowledge. And it appears that IBM has shifted their own internal strategies towards increasingly specialized workers, so that more workers are involved on a given project, but for less time and work.
That's just can't work right over an increasing scale of complexity and project size, since it multiplies communcation costs at an exponential rate."
IBM appears to be winning because they did the appserver better than Weblogic. This graph is a little old but still relevant -
s Dejanews.png
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/java/AppServer
I've been a Websphere bigot for the past seven years but cost issues moved me into the JBoss space this year and I've got to say...
I can see serious issues with IBM's profit margins in the near future.
As predicted in October, 2006, based on keyword rate-of-change, Zune is a flop.
r y=zune_meme_rerun
r y=zune_meme_successful_prediction_so
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
I believe the Microsoft attempted a viral marketing / meme manipulation scheme over the Internet, but I can't prove it. It's getting harder and harder to "advertise", partly because of the flood of information from the IT age, partly due to increasing resistence to memetic propagation.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
I told y'all that Mono was dead over a year ago.
y =mono_meme_update_mono_still
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Yup.
"He's still dead, Jim."
I told you Mono was over a year ago!
y =mono_meme_update_mono_still
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Yup.
He's still dead, Jim.
Wikipedia's problems, like Yahoo's, were predictable in that their growth rate has passed through an inflection point and is slowing...
y =wikipedia_meme
r y=search_engine_comparison
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
In fact, it's quite possible that we've reached a general inflection point in the IT market. Check out the search engine growth rate...
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
It's quite likely that Wikipedia passed through its growth inflection point in 2006. Here's the graphs. Nielson's blogpulse still shows growth, but it's a shorter term measure and may be more indicative of the current controversy than long-term growth rate.
y =wikipedia_meme
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Remember, the inflection point is the point of maximum growth, maximum exposure and often maximum hysteria.
My (admittedly dicey) prediction from eight months ago, that Blu-Ray would become the clear standard within one year, based on keyword analysis Dejanews.com -
r y=blu_ray_vs_hd_dvd
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
I wrote this last month. It's nice to see the topic on Slashdot. America has become a culture of deception but most Americans trick themselves into not believing their own lack of integrity. That's why the USA is running $1 trillion trade deficits and $1 trillion federal deficits. There's absolutely NO intention of honoring debts.
y =state_of_affairs
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
I just quit participating. I sold my house, I paid off everything, I sit at my parent's house and play pool now. With twenty years of solid IT experience, I should have a real position, but it's all about paranoia and politics, lying to companies, lying to women. Nobody wants honesty.
So I'll sit here and play pool and take it easy.
The 40% figure is close to my own experience since the Dotcom Crash. I don't classify it as "lying", though, but as "deceit". And I've learned to be far more critical in evaluating new job positions. My latest experiences in December -
y =dicey_projects
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Yahoo's traffic has been dropping steadily for almost two years now There's a finite amount of attention span out there.
y =search_engine_comparison
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Yes, it's another bubble which can ultimately be traced back to fiat money even if Google's stock can't see that its growth inflection point has passed and competition (such as specialized, differentiated engines) is growing. I've been testing out http://www.hakia.com/ and it is occasionally closer to what I'm searching for than Google.
r y=myspace_meme_successful_prediction_update
r y=social_networking_meme_verified
y =search_engine_comparison
MySpace meme has peaked -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
Social Networking meme has peaked -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
Search Engine meme has peaked -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Information has a finite value.
It may not be measurable, but it is finite.
Delphi's demise was quite predictable with simple datamining techniques.
p hiDejanews.png
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/technology/del
I was the subject of a great deal of hostility from the Delphi community when I posted this prediction back in 1999. I loved Delphi, it was the best tool I've ever used but you'd think that "rational engineers" could distinguish between personal feelings and market forces.
There was clearly demand for a cross-platform version but Borland waited too long and java ate the window of opportunity.
A series of entries, logs & graphics about how I detected suspicious network traffic. I'm hoping to expand it into a Defcon 15 submission on click fraud.
http://www.realmeme.com/click
A series of entries on my discovery of click fraud, how I detected it.
o g?catname=%2FClickFraud
I'm planning to work it into a Defcon 15 submission.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/Webl