A model for understanding how and why memes propagate across the Internet. I originally intended this as a supplement to my Meme Miner tool, to validate its predictions, but it's coming in handy for other reasons.
My interpretation? In the United States, Linux is being marginalized as a specialty niche server. I didn't include the worldwide graphs, but Linux appears to have only a slightly better future. Predictably, Vista is ramping up and gaining mindshare and buzz.
I was excited about IPv6 earlier this year when I read about U.S. military adoption. But I discovered that IPv6 has a history of false expectations and the buzz trend is still not positive.
My interpretation? In the United States, Linux is being marginalized as a specialty niche server. Predictably, Vista is ramping up and gaining mindshare and buzz.
The Linux curves seem clear, they're indicative of a product which has topped out.
Slashdot Mirror
A model for understanding how and why memes propagate across the Internet. I originally intended this as a supplement to my Meme Miner tool, to validate its predictions, but it's coming in handy for other reasons.
y =updated_ideospheric_sampling_model
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
My interpretation? In the United States, Linux is being marginalized as a specialty niche server. I didn't include the worldwide graphs, but Linux appears to have only a slightly better future. Predictably, Vista is ramping up and gaining mindshare and buzz.
Using meme theory to create a strategy for detecting click fraud -
http://www.realmeme.com/click
I was modifying my original Meme Miner to improve its prediction success and it stumbled upon anomalies which point to click fraud.
Imagine my surprise!
Zune's slow start was predictable in July. :)
y =zune_meme_rerun
I know that because I predicted it.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
The link includes an updated diagram of my methodology.
Written almost two years ago -
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/bandwidth/index.jsp
The majority of software development will be in automated services which have little to do with human interaction.
It's hard to deduce what causes resistence to a meme, but it's easier to measure that there is a high or low resistence.
y =zune_meme_rerun
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =linux_meme
The buzz factor of Linux has been falling for a couple of years.
The odds are good that this will reflect back into the actual adoption rate.
There's just no interest in Zune so far. The "Digg Fraud" campaign is the sort of thing I ws expecting when I wrote this entry -
y =zune_meme_rerun
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
iPod has saturated its ecological niche, and Zune doesn't offer enough to break into iPod's space. Microsoft needs some inventive marketing.
y =zune_meme_rerun
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
I was excited about IPv6 earlier this year when I read about U.S. military adoption. But I discovered that IPv6 has a history of false expectations and the buzz trend is still not positive.
r y=ipv6_meme_update
From July 2006 -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
The odds are good that interest in linux has topped out and that Vista will retain the desktop title.
y =linux_meme
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =linux_meme
My interpretation? In the United States, Linux is being marginalized as a specialty niche server. Predictably, Vista is ramping up and gaining mindshare and buzz.
The Linux curves seem clear, they're indicative of a product which has topped out.
The window for true desktop Linux has probably passed. General interest in Linux has been falling for the past couple of years.
y =linux_meme
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Microsoft's traditional marketing isn't working well.
y =zune_meme_rerun
Gee? What other ploys can Microsoft try?
Unfortunately, the mental bandwidth already belongs to iPod, it will be hard to dislodge them in favor of Zune.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Zune is still going nowhere from a mindshare standpoint.
y =zune_meme_rerun
I'm tempted to call it Dead On Arrival.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
I'm still sceptical about IPv6. There's been too much optimism and too many false starts -
r y=ipv6_meme_update
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
The IT Market can be considered, in gesalt, as being subject to the S-curve with the year 2000-2001 ( the Dot Com Crash ) as its inflection point...
y =evolution_of_the_it_market
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
What does it mean, really? That coding is a low-value activity and perilous to your economic health over the long run.
Social networking meme is peaking, the rate of change has topped out. Microsoft misses the boat again!
r y=blog_rss_meme_update
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?ent
I predicted a high growth curve for MythTV about 15 months ago. It's nice to see a prediction confirmed, growth rate is still high.
y =mythtv_meme
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
There's no buzz about Zune. Microsoft will need a significant and unique advertising campaign to make this thing sell.
y =apple_ipod_vs_microsoft_zune
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
As predicted back in May 2006, virtualization is a hot topic.
y =virtualization_meme
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=virtualization_meme_ver_3_0
"Dejanews shows a sharp increase in virtualization at the end of 2005", first posted on May 15th, 2006
Interest in IpV6 has stagnated since 2001.
y =ipv6_meme_flatlined_for_five
If the U.S. Government is about to push a major IpV6 initiative, there could be some money to be made here.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
This memegraph shows a rapid increase in interest in virtualization since mid-2005 -
y =virtualization_meme
y =virtualization_meme_ver_3_0
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Here's how VMWare and Microsoft stand in that increased interest.
VMWare shows a mild upturn while Microsoft shows a mild downturn.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr
Virtualization meme has shown surprising strength in the past six months.
y =virtualization_meme_ver_3_0
VMWare looks like it's taking the lead over Microsoft.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entr