Si. Si! I learned my lesson the hard way. I keep my exposure to women at a minimum now. yuk, yuk.
Many have been raised to believe that they can lie or exaggerate a situation because they've been "discriminated against" for eons. Just not worth goofing with them.
I have a zero tolerance policy now. I instantly put any woman into permanent "ignore" the second she even hints at being "sexually harassed" or "uncomfortable".
Diffraction is my term for measuring how well a new meme captures more bandwdith. In a Quality-Of-Service network, bandwidth always has contention and grabbing more bandwidth is difficult. If you understand how to grab bandwidth through meme patterns, you can propagate your information ahead of others.
I argue that it's an inevitable outcome of ecological diversification of information and the Internet. It's not just occurring in the United States. The internet is "speciating", evolving differentiation in order to limit infectious memes.
I posted this a few months ago. IPv6 is finally broken out of its false trend lines of the past few years so it looks like it's finally moving towards a mainstream technology.
As I noted five weeks ago, the IPv6 meme shows significant change almost one year ago. There's substantially greater chatter about IPv6 and the rate of change is up.
I originally redicted Mono's demise in Dec, 2005 (reconfirmed in Jan, 2006), well before Neil McAllister and received quite a bit of jeering and obnoxious commentary -
However, as we all know now, it has indeed been dead for the past 2 1/2 years and it will stay dead. Check out the relative trend strength for Mono versus Silverlight or Ruby.
Microsoft entered a market nearing its growth inflection point with a marginal product. They thought they could win through hype and Microsoft branding.
There's good evidence that the rate of Internet growth has peaked and is now declining. There were several signs about eighteen months ago when I made this prediction...
I say the Internet inflected in Winter of 2007 and the after-effects are just now showing up in employment and revenue figures. Marginal companies will have increasing difficulty in making money, which is possibly why the newpapers are finally starting to fail en mass.
China, Australia and now Italy are moving towards Internet censorship. In 2006, at Defcon 14, I predicted that the Internet would move towards greater memetic differentiation to prevent widescale manipulation, that is, the ability to influence audiences would be dialed down to smaller and more local groups.
I wasn't sure of how it would happen, the mechanism which would start up but I know think "national security" is it. Here's an experiment I conducted last month along with a brief commentary.
After execution, I was surprised at how many foreign government hits I got, many of them associated with national security. I wouldn't underestimate what's happening. There are serious economic and cultural forces at work and self-preservation is involved.
It's quite likely that the Internet retains knowledge and alters its behavior over time. Compare the group reaction time between the SARS and avian flu viruses.
Currently, Facebook possesses an *unknown* tactical advantage in opposition to Google's *unknown* willingness to commit strategic resources and influence. But once Facebook's advantage is quantifiable, I suspect that Google will guesstimate and commit enough resources to win the battle. The odds are good that Facebook's growth rate of change will hit an inflection point in the next few months. These user complaints are a direct result of Facebook trying to push a tactical advantage for strategic gain.
Once Facebook hits an inflection point, its scope of influence is bounded, i.e. predictable.
Facebook needs to change the game to increase their chances of winning. At this point, I give them a 50/50 chance. There's power in coalitions (see IBM's strategy with Eclipse, Sun's strategy with Java & JCP).
If I owned Facebook, I'd redo the Facebook API by combining some of the ideas of OpenSocial, then build a coalition along the lines of the Java Community Process to manage it, abdicating 49% of the power and responsibility to other companies. If Facebook does that now, they can leverage their current development community and possibly force Google's hand. If they wait, the true extent of their power will eventually be revealed and challenged.
Slashdot Mirror
Bazinga!
I'm offended that my sex has been characterized as "bored, lazy and arrogant"!!!!
"shut the fuck up"
Well, that IS what he said he was going to do.
Just quit talking when women are around. :)
Si. Si!
I learned my lesson the hard way.
I keep my exposure to women at a minimum now. yuk, yuk.
Many have been raised to believe that they can lie or exaggerate a situation because they've been "discriminated against" for eons. Just not worth goofing with them.
"brogrammer"?
Now that sounds sexist and hardly "professional".
It could have happened at any conference
but only at Pycon could I claim that
I have a python in my pants.
That's what happens when you let women into the internet.
I predict a resurgence in traditional men's clubs.
"would you want this woman anywhere near you?"
Fuck no.
I have a zero tolerance policy now. I instantly put any woman into permanent "ignore" the second she even hints at being "sexually harassed" or "uncomfortable".
Mono is still dead, just as I predicted in 2006 and re-iterated in 2009.
http://realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=he_s_still_dead_jim
Dead.
DOA.
I posted my first Meme Graph and reference here on Slashdot back in 2006.
What comes next?
We go from measurement to manipulation.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=meme_theory
Diffraction is my term for measuring how well a new meme captures more bandwdith. In a Quality-Of-Service network, bandwidth always has contention and grabbing more bandwidth is difficult. If you understand how to grab bandwidth through meme patterns, you can propagate your information ahead of others.
Flex versus Silverlight meme from three months ago, although I first ran this graph one year ago for a client deciding on technology direction...
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=flex_vs_silverlight
Rate-of-growth for Flex and Silverlight is almost the same and Flex maintains a comfortable lead.
"a government gone feral"
I argue that it's an inevitable outcome of ecological diversification of information and the Internet. It's not just occurring in the United States. The internet is "speciating", evolving differentiation in order to limit infectious memes.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=global_differentiation
Is our government nuts?
Well, yes.
But that's a separate issue.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=ipv6_revisited
It makes no matter to me but it looks like IPv6 is finally taking off. I wouldn't bet against it.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=ipv6_revisited
I posted this a few months ago. IPv6 is finally broken out of its false trend lines of the past few years so it looks like it's finally moving towards a mainstream technology.
As I noted five weeks ago, the IPv6 meme shows significant change almost one year ago. There's substantially greater chatter about IPv6 and the rate of change is up.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=ipv6_revisited
You guys are finally catching up to me.
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/theory101/index.jsp
Here's the mechanism for Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine"....
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/theory101/diffraction.jsp
You can determine patient zero entry points, periods of susceptibility, etc, through simple keyword counts and some semantic analysis.
I originally redicted Mono's demise in Dec, 2005 (reconfirmed in Jan, 2006), well before Neil McAllister and received quite a bit of jeering and obnoxious commentary -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=mono_meme_update_mono_still
However, as we all know now, it has indeed been dead for the past 2 1/2 years and it will stay dead. Check out the relative trend strength for Mono versus Silverlight or Ruby.
http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=linux+mono,+silverlight,+ruby&l=
He's still dead, Jim.
This isn't about prisons.
This is about Mumbai.
Keyword graphs show the story...
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=zune_meme_rerun
Microsoft entered a market nearing its growth inflection point with a marginal product. They thought they could win through hype and Microsoft branding.
Microsoft Vista is failing for similar reasons.
There's good evidence that the rate of Internet growth has peaked and is now declining. There were several signs about eighteen months ago when I made this prediction...
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change
Netcraft rate of change in host growth could be a good proxy for overall growth, too...
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_inflection_point_microsoft
I say the Internet inflected in Winter of 2007 and the after-effects are just now showing up in employment and revenue figures. Marginal companies will have increasing difficulty in making money, which is possibly why the newpapers are finally starting to fail en mass.
The Internet has entered a long-term inflection point.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_inflection_point_microsoft
Network traffic for many major sites began shrinking or slowing in growth 1-2 years ago.
The negative growth in e-commerce sales was not an anomaly.
China, Australia and now Italy are moving towards Internet censorship. In 2006, at Defcon 14, I predicted that the Internet would move towards greater memetic differentiation to prevent widescale manipulation, that is, the ability to influence audiences would be dialed down to smaller and more local groups.
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/about/Defcon14.ppt
I wasn't sure of how it would happen, the mechanism which would start up but I know think "national security" is it.
Here's an experiment I conducted last month along with a brief commentary.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=gaming_calculatedrisk2
After execution, I was surprised at how many foreign government hits I got, many of them associated with national security. I wouldn't underestimate what's happening. There are serious economic and cultural forces at work and self-preservation is involved.
I posted models of it almost three years ago.
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/dailymeme/2005/Aug/coughcoldDejanews.png
Web searches are co-incidental indicators.
Want to see something that Google hasn't shown you?
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=sars_versus_avian_flu_meme
It's quite likely that the Internet retains knowledge and alters its behavior over time. Compare the group reaction time between the SARS and avian flu viruses.
From earlier this year, in response to the "Wikipedia Falling Apart" rumors ...
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=wikipedia_meme
Wikipedia probably entered its growth inflection point in early 2006.
The current turmoil is due to a state change towards a declining rate of growth.
Currently, Facebook possesses an *unknown* tactical advantage in opposition to Google's *unknown* willingness to commit strategic resources and influence. But once Facebook's advantage is quantifiable, I suspect that Google will guesstimate and commit enough resources to win the battle. The odds are good that Facebook's growth rate of change will hit an inflection point in the next few months. These user complaints are a direct result of Facebook trying to push a tactical advantage for strategic gain.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=social_networking_meme
Once Facebook hits an inflection point, its scope of influence is bounded, i.e. predictable.
Facebook needs to change the game to increase their chances of winning.
At this point, I give them a 50/50 chance.
There's power in coalitions (see IBM's strategy with Eclipse, Sun's strategy with Java & JCP).
If I owned Facebook, I'd redo the Facebook API by combining some of the ideas of OpenSocial, then build a coalition along the lines of the Java Community Process to manage it, abdicating 49% of the power and responsibility to other companies. If Facebook does that now, they can leverage their current development community and possibly force Google's hand. If they wait, the true extent of their power will eventually be revealed and challenged.