Its like that old question: If I flip a coin 5 times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds that the 6th flip will also be heads? The answer is still 50-50.
I'm not talking about the odds of 6 in a row, I'm speaking to the specific case of the 6th flip, after 5 in a row.
Similarly, the odds of someone who's already won the lottery winning again are the same as anyone else's. Having already won once in the past doesn't magically decrease their odds of winning again in the future. If it was a 14 million to one shot, it's still a 14 million to one shot. Keep in mind that the odds of them having won in the past are 100%, since they have, by the terms of the question, already won once. So, yes, its expected that people who have already won once will win again (probably more likely, since they're more likely to continue betting).
As for the motorcycle argument, my last bike had almost zero rolling resistance - less than a pound of push would get it rolling, whereas the aerodynamic resistance quickly exceeded 1 pound - people just aren't aerodynamic. So if you're talking aobut the "crossover point" where aerodynamic and rolling resistance are equal, on a motorcycle you're talking less than 20 mph, possibly less than 10 mph.
The "crossover point" is a fiction that has nothing to do with the point of maximum fuel economy.
The real problem is that what people call "accidents", aren't. Just as "software bugs" aren't.
A "softwaare bug" is really a mistake by the programmer. Calling it a "bug" implies that it crawled in there on its own, and that the programmer wasn't responsible.
Similarly, calling vehicle crashes "accidents" implies that they happened beyond the control of the people involved, which, unless its an overpass that collapsed or some other mechanical failure, is bs. People don't want to admit they helped cause an "accident", either by being the one who took the wrong action that initiated the "accident", or by failing to drive defensively, thus "being in the wrong place at the wrong time."
Very few "accidents" are really accidents - they're mostly driver error on the part of at least 1, and usually both, drivers.
If you do your graph, then you'd find that the point where they "balance out" on newer vehicles is very low - much less than the speed limit. A lot of work went into lowering rolling resistance (tire design, suspensions, improved drivetrain efficiencies). Check out the rolling resistance of the honda prius - just underinflating the tires sucks up to 25 mpg off. Also, according to your argument, the top speed for a motorcycle should be less than 10 mph.
Women emerged as the most important computers. <br> Demand for computing spiked in wartime
... so what he's saying is the demand for computers a.k.a. women went DOWN after the war. So all that "make love, not war" stuff back in the '60s was really gay-on-gay propaganda.
Yeah, we had one "medium" up here, claimed she could predict the future, all that shit.
Along came the "storm of the century" - the Ice Storm.
So picture this: Front door opens, her little rat-on-a-rope yappy little shit dog runs out, hits the ice-crusted front lawn, and can't stop sliding into the street - just as the city snow-blower comes along and SWPPPTT!!! - shredded dog chunks blown onto the front lawn.
Of course, she DOESN'T EVEN NOTICE IT! So much for these awesome powers of observation. Relatives scoop up the remains and hide them. To this day she doesn't know where her dog went.
We've had that happen up here too. While the odds are high for any one individual, over time its bound to happen.
Its like that old question: If I flip a coin 5 times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds that the 6th flip will also be heads? The answer is still 50-50.
Or, given 30 kids in a classroom, what are the odds that 2 will share the same birthday? Most people think 30/365, when in fact the odds are very high.
OTOH, I'm glad to see the Russians finally learning to do things the American Way (i.e., sue the pants off everyone).
No, it only means we're going to get more russian spam like this:
Subject: Y0u4 FR33 V4C4T10N IS R34DY
How I Made $$$$ by SUING NASA.
Comrade, I am writing you with this GREAT BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY. Surely you must have heard about the astrologer who sued NASA for wrecking her horoscope?
Remember all those rumours of the SPACE SHUTTLE LAUNCHES CHANGING THE CLIMATE? You too can sue NASA for all the costs you've run into, such as having to buy air conditioners, an outdoor pool, and vacations to cooler lcimes.
Think of it. Who wouldn't want a FREE SWIMMING POOL?
Don't be like the last person who rejected this offer, and had a chunk of SPACE DEBRIS kill their family dog (or if you do, remember to CALL US so we can GET YOU COMPENSATION).
Don't claim to tell me my future when you can't even tell me what I had for breakfast. Wanna really impress me? Buy the winning lottery ticket. Over. And Over. And Over.
Look at the bright side (there's ALWAYS a bright side).
People will find it more and more convusing, to the point where there will be a market for stripped-down apps running a simple interface (Remember PC-Direct or DOSMenu?).
The future PC could very well end up being the following:
Low-power-consumption PC Linux or BSD Web browser
- and that's IT. All the apps working through the browser, so the browser becomes, for most users, the "operating system". McNealy had it right, just not the right timeframe.
Think of it - what do you do today... troll on slashdot, check your web-based email, write to your web-based blog, log in to a remote system through a web interface, etc.
To change computer
use to joy
you gotta use
the real McCoy
Firefox on *nix
beats Windows, boy!
... or use a window manager that supports screen pagers... I mean, wtf, Windows 3.1 had a shareware add-on that let you page screens, and there was even an old DOS utility that let you page multiple mono screens in the video buffer.
Of course, having tried Microsoft's screen pager (limited to 4 screens - LOSER), only to find out it doesn't work with a LOT of programs (in other words, anything I use) I can see why they'd focus on eye candy - they didn't do their graphics libs right in the first place, and simply CAN'T get rid of the cruft w/o breaking something else.
Other users
try out his Win
then throw their keyboards
back at him
he needs *NIX
Burma-Shave
at a speed where air resistance and rolling friction are approximately equal
okay, now either you mistyped something, or you're talking out your ass. Both air resistance and rolling friction are drag forces. They both operate in the same direction (retarding forward progress) and cannot ever balance out.
People will inherently drive at a speed which is safe for them
... now that's total and utter bullshit, with no possibility of misunderstanding... disproven every day in the accident and fatality stats.
The simple fact is that most people are poor drivers. Thats why there are so many "accidents." If they're such good drivers, why do they need insurance? Because of other "poor drivers?" I don't think so. I drive the same roads, and I will put my driving record up against anyone elses.
Without the impactor, Deep Impact isn't Deep Impact - its just another flyby (not that there's anything wrong with that)
The impactor has completed its mission and is no longer an impactor - its just space junk, waiting for some aliens to come along and give us a fine for defacing public property.
The carrier will continue on its orbit, but Deep Impact (the movie, the mission, whatever) is over.
To say that it continues to orbit would be akin to saying that my great-great-great-grandmother twenty times removed is still walking around, because some of her constituent atoms have probably been incorporated into other animals by now.
The Vogons get pissed that we ruined the messenger comet, which they had pimped out to display an advertisement about the new interstellar highway that was going to go through when they removed MARS. So they decide that it would be better all around to remove EARTH instead.
A surver was done, and not a single Martian objected (probably because they couldn't find any).
The dolphins aren't saying anything... but ominously, there has been an increase in government procurement contracts for towels.
Read what I originally posted - it should be OBVIOUS that I was "baiting" (as in baiting th hook). Jeez - do I have to put EVERYTHING between tags except on Troll Tuesdays?
To say it was orbiting around the sun when it didn't even go half-way would be like me saying I walked around the block when I just went to the corner, or that Alan Shepards sub-orbital flight was an "orbit". What it did was sub-orbital.
1. The path of a celestial body or an artificial satellite as it revolves around another body.
2. One complete revolution of such a body.
Now, it might be nit-picking, but it didn't "revolve around" any body - its "orbit" was really just an arc that started and completed in under 1 revolution. If it had taken 1 or more revolutions to complete the mission, then you could have said it had, in fact, orbited the sun.
Pedantic, but wtf, this is slashdot, and this is the sort of "angels on a pinhead" argument that gets people to bite:-)
Slashdot Mirror
Similarly, the odds of someone who's already won the lottery winning again are the same as anyone else's. Having already won once in the past doesn't magically decrease their odds of winning again in the future. If it was a 14 million to one shot, it's still a 14 million to one shot. Keep in mind that the odds of them having won in the past are 100%, since they have, by the terms of the question, already won once. So, yes, its expected that people who have already won once will win again (probably more likely, since they're more likely to continue betting).
As for the motorcycle argument, my last bike had almost zero rolling resistance - less than a pound of push would get it rolling, whereas the aerodynamic resistance quickly exceeded 1 pound - people just aren't aerodynamic. So if you're talking aobut the "crossover point" where aerodynamic and rolling resistance are equal, on a motorcycle you're talking less than 20 mph, possibly less than 10 mph.
The "crossover point" is a fiction that has nothing to do with the point of maximum fuel economy.
A "softwaare bug" is really a mistake by the programmer. Calling it a "bug" implies that it crawled in there on its own, and that the programmer wasn't responsible.
Similarly, calling vehicle crashes "accidents" implies that they happened beyond the control of the people involved, which, unless its an overpass that collapsed or some other mechanical failure, is bs. People don't want to admit they helped cause an "accident", either by being the one who took the wrong action that initiated the "accident", or by failing to drive defensively, thus "being in the wrong place at the wrong time."
Very few "accidents" are really accidents - they're mostly driver error on the part of at least 1, and usually both, drivers.
If you do your graph, then you'd find that the point where they "balance out" on newer vehicles is very low - much less than the speed limit. A lot of work went into lowering rolling resistance (tire design, suspensions, improved drivetrain efficiencies). Check out the rolling resistance of the honda prius - just underinflating the tires sucks up to 25 mpg off. Also, according to your argument, the top speed for a motorcycle should be less than 10 mph.
Wow. Whodathunkit?
You can always look for it on the web, you know.
You can't "take it as a whole". Each event is separate. The odds of the 6th flip being heads is 50%, not 1.6%.
I'm thinking more along the lines of "we've got several pcs in the house - why do they all have to be able to do everything"?
And my commemorative St-Linus-was-here beer can collection?
And my BSD devil?
Along came the "storm of the century" - the Ice Storm.
So picture this: Front door opens, her little rat-on-a-rope yappy little shit dog runs out, hits the ice-crusted front lawn, and can't stop sliding into the street - just as the city snow-blower comes along and SWPPPTT!!! - shredded dog chunks blown onto the front lawn.
Of course, she DOESN'T EVEN NOTICE IT! So much for these awesome powers of observation. Relatives scoop up the remains and hide them. To this day she doesn't know where her dog went.
Couldn't you tell I was baiting from my "just watch people claim ..."? or do I have to spell it out?
Its like that old question: If I flip a coin 5 times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds that the 6th flip will also be heads? The answer is still 50-50.
Or, given 30 kids in a classroom, what are the odds that 2 will share the same birthday? Most people think 30/365, when in fact the odds are very high.
Someone should do a "Daily Show" routine on a weekly basis using these guys for material.
I predict she will lose!
Don't claim to tell me my future when you can't even tell me what I had for breakfast. Wanna really impress me? Buy the winning lottery ticket. Over. And Over. And Over.
People will find it more and more convusing, to the point where there will be a market for stripped-down apps running a simple interface (Remember PC-Direct or DOSMenu?).
The future PC could very well end up being the following:
- and that's IT. All the apps working through the browser, so the browser becomes, for most users, the "operating system". McNealy had it right, just not the right timeframe.Think of it - what do you do today ... troll on slashdot, check your web-based email, write to your web-based blog, log in to a remote system through a web interface, etc.
Of course, having tried Microsoft's screen pager (limited to 4 screens - LOSER), only to find out it doesn't work with a LOT of programs (in other words, anything I use) I can see why they'd focus on eye candy - they didn't do their graphics libs right in the first place, and simply CAN'T get rid of the cruft w/o breaking something else.
I got the Service Unavailable ... hed to check the URL to make sure I wasn't back on slashdot!
Are you sure it doesn't say that the left lane is reserved for passing maneuvers only?
The simple fact is that most people are poor drivers. Thats why there are so many "accidents." If they're such good drivers, why do they need insurance? Because of other "poor drivers?" I don't think so. I drive the same roads, and I will put my driving record up against anyone elses.
Without the impactor, Deep Impact isn't Deep Impact - its just another flyby (not that there's anything wrong with that)
The impactor has completed its mission and is no longer an impactor - its just space junk, waiting for some aliens to come along and give us a fine for defacing public property.
The carrier will continue on its orbit, but Deep Impact (the movie, the mission, whatever) is over.
To say that it continues to orbit would be akin to saying that my great-great-great-grandmother twenty times removed is still walking around, because some of her constituent atoms have probably been incorporated into other animals by now.
Semantics ...
Sure, the constituent parts will still orbit the sun, but Deep Impact is yesterdays news, todays toast.
The Vogons get pissed that we ruined the messenger comet, which they had pimped out to display an advertisement about the new interstellar highway that was going to go through when they removed MARS. So they decide that it would be better all around to remove EARTH instead.
A surver was done, and not a single Martian objected (probably because they couldn't find any).
The dolphins aren't saying anything ... but ominously, there has been an increase in government procurement contracts for towels.
... nope, Deep Impact no longer exists, so it will never complete a "first solar orbit". Semantics, I know, but what the heck.
Read what I originally posted - it should be OBVIOUS that I was "baiting" (as in baiting th hook). Jeez - do I have to put EVERYTHING between tags except on Troll Tuesdays?
Pedantic answer: orbit == complete circuit. It didn't do even half an orbit http://deepimpact.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/factsheet-t ext.html
To say it was orbiting around the sun when it didn't even go half-way would be like me saying I walked around the block when I just went to the corner, or that Alan Shepards sub-orbital flight was an "orbit". What it did was sub-orbital.
Definition http://www.answers.com/orbit&r=67
Now, it might be nit-picking, but it didn't "revolve around" any body - its "orbit" was really just an arc that started and completed in under 1 revolution. If it had taken 1 or more revolutions to complete the mission, then you could have said it had, in fact, orbited the sun. Pedantic, but wtf, this is slashdot, and this is the sort of "angels on a pinhead" argument that gets people to bite