The only thing creating division in the U.S. right now is...
Them! It's not us it's them!
Your post is part of the problem. My post is part of the problem. As soon as it turn into us vs them we all lose.
Stop treating everything as us and them and we might have a chance at moving forward together.
now imagine the entire country being run by NYC and a few other big cities. No thanks
And rightly so. The needs of the city differs from the needs of the country so why try to cover them with one political entity?
With mass migration to cities over the decades I think we're at a point we should revert to city states.
Dunno about GP, but I like the fact that big, heavily-populated states (California, New York, Texas) don't get to set the agenda for the rest of us. Unlike Congress (specifically the Senate, with two Senators per state), the Electoral College is the only thing that allows smaller states to get a voice in the Executive branch of government.
Being non-American, what I don't get is why the USA, which clearly has quite diverse opinions about things, is still a single entity?
If we take the emotion out of it, it would seem that splitting into 3 or 4 'super states' would solve a lot of the current political issues.
There must be an optimum size for country to function most effectively, and the US is making quite clear that 320M+ is too big. 4 smaller nations of 80M people each with a common defence pact would probably work a whole lot better.
Its not quite that simple. First mover is only an advantage if there is some sort of switching cost. Since consumer use involves holding little bitcoin, and any held bitcoins can be easily traded for other coins, there is little to no switching cost.
Switch to what? Unless you're going to make the argument that BTC is a scam but every other Crypto is ok, then the only option is switching back to fiat. We're already past that point, just like how we're not going back to VHS progress moves forward
People not learning that crypto currency is a frickin' scam. No sympathy.
Email is also a scam, as are telephones.. and people! All scams, every one of them. If anyone ever scammed someone using something then that thing is a scam. No doubt.
Yeah they actually did. 70% for Manhattan and 60% for London.
Ok now you're making stuff up. At no point did the average real estate market drop by 60 or 70% in London or Manhattan.
"Rustbelt" is now apparently florida which has yet to recover, including large parts of texas, az, and so on.
*Some* parts, generally the parts that don't have work to support the market. This is not some random thing, there are actually reasons why it happens which are predictable.
Meanwhile every major city is experiencing record growth.
When the number of vacancies in those houses sit empty.
Right but you need to dig deeper before making any conclusions. We have empty properties here to for a couple of reasons. One is foreigners who treat it as a land bank. They don't trust their own banks so hold their funds in foreign real estate. A lot of these people can do this for decades so are not not likely to trigger a mass sale. If all those condos were held by subprime mortgages you might have a point.
This is exactly what caused previous real estate crashes in both residential and commercial properties.
What previous crash? Australia has never has one. Some shit suburbs in the middle of nowhere have fallen a little, but that is normal in any free market. Most in or near a capital city or beach have had continual growth for 30 years.
Except your perspective is wrong. While "wages are high" the price of housing outstrips that earning.
Two points. While wages are high and unemployment low, current owners have no need to sell, so there's no driver for a crash.
And for new owners, you're still stuck in the average wage vs average price mindset. Prior to WW2 regular people couldn't afford land. Rich people owned it all and regular people rented. The idea that everyone owns their own house was an aberration caused by the effects of WW2 and modernisation (ie cars and roads opening up a vast supplies of land). If you go back to the 2000 years prior to WW2, rich people owned everything. It is possible that we're merely shifting back to that model.
Prices will be high and stay high because rich people buy it all and have assets to fund this cycle.
For Australia the crash is already starting
Right. I have three properties all in different locations, and all of them are up 10-20% in the last 12 months. There is some cooling in some areas, but as I said free markets have fluctuations and those areas are generally not demand areas. So yeah I expect the crap suburbs will experience some corrections in the regions of 5-10%, but nothing like 30%+. Anywhere within 15km of the CBD is and has always been strong.
What's interesting about the bitcoin crowd is that they rely so heavily on ignorance and lies.
Which ones are those? Maybe you could elaborate? Because you know when you say "the bitcoin crowd" it's like saying "all black people", or "all women"...
If you want to discuss details let's discuss. If you just want to walk around in circles shouting catchphrases at anything that moves I'll leave you to it.
Bitcoin's current spike in price is largely due to wall street speculation.
Or popularity. Remember the only thing that counts is supply and demand. Supply is finite, demand is increasing, so there is a tipping point where prices take off which is now.
So ask yourself, has demand peaked? It will peak eventually but until we reach man-on-street level of investing there's still lots of room to move.
The other question is supply. BTC might be replaced but that won't happen overnight. Being first mover they have the benefits of incumbency, and if you follow the crypto tech you'll get a better idea of how the competition is faring.
The blockchain will be part of our future but bitcoin could easily be displaced by another digital coin.
Could or could not who's to say. This is the point.
Calling bubble is not a prediction, you have to know when the market will rise and fall to get any value. And right no
The condo bubble, especially the Toronto condo bubble saw 80% of their value disappear.
Ok sounds like a localised issue. I'm pretty sure apartments in Manhattan or London didn't suffer similar 'corrections'
The 2008 crash in the US? Depends on where you were,
Exactly. You can't just blanket 'real estate' as one thing. A shitbox subprime purchase in the rust belt is not equivalent in any way to buying house in say Palo Alto.
Economics is just supply and demand. In a lot of places, the demand is real, the supply is finite. Not all high priced things are bubbles.
Take your pick, but the larger the bubble the bigger the correction.
But how do you tell if a high priced thing is a bubble, or actually sustained by real demand? If you had've said ten years ago that the most popular mobile phones would cost $1000USD you'd be laughed out of the room. Yet here we are. Are iPhones a bubble?
The housing bubble in Canada is massive. Australia ranks second.
I can't speak for Canada, but I've heard the same arguments in Australia (eg average income vs average house price). One thing to think about is the formula used to calculate such things. I think the classic formulas no longer apply for various reasons, one is most households now have double incomes, most homeowners now have accumulated wealth that wasn't the case in the 1960's/70's, and urbanisation and population growth has crossed a tipping point in major cities to create a positive feedback loop in the demand curve.
To give some perspective, wages in Australia are high and unemployment and interest rates are low. One or all of these things has to change drastically to affect housing demand, and there is no change on the horizon.
Ultimately how do you calculate the value of a thing? Historically most people didn't own their own house, this changed after WW2 and a lot of people considered this the new normal. But what I believe is that the real normal is going back to prewar where a handful rich people owned everything and regular folks couldn't afford land. As much as this sucks, this could just be the new reality.
Because its only smugness that would make one suspicious of a fast exponential spike in price from $300 to $8,000.
Nothing wrong with being suspicious. I was suspicious of Apple's growth from near bankruptcy to world's most wealthiest company in less than 10 years. But here we are.
The steel, rail, and electric companies all saw similar growth rates during their infancy. Disruptive technology is disruptive.
Its not like bitcoin didn't have one of those in 2014 where it spiked to $1,000 and then crashed to $250 and sat there for years.
As has gold, real estate, shares etc. If you stopped investing in shares after the GFC you'd look pretty foolish now.
Will it go to $20K, quite possibly yes. Will it go there without a substantial drop between now and then, not likely.
I agree, but if your investment strategy is long term, short term dips are meaningless.
.
What's interesting about the bubble crowd is that the only example of human history they have to cling on is some obscure reference from 1637. In the following 380 years they can't come up with anything else...
Say, you must be Albanian!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albanian_Civil_War
Right, here's some more straws for you to grasp. Or do you have any actual connection to that and blockchain technology that you'd like to share with us?
There's plenty of examples of things that are in no way related to Cryptocurrency. BTC has nothing in common with Tulips or Beanie Babies other than being popular. If that's the only qualification to be a bubble, then so is electricity, automobiles and the Internet...
So Tulips and Beanie Babies. I didn't even know what hey were and had to look them up. If that is you basis for financial advice I'd find another hobby.
It feels like it has the makings of an event that could displace tulips in history.
It feels like? I'm sure someone said the same thing about the steam engine, electricity, TV and the Internet. Disruptive technology is disruptive.
What are you going to do with BTC if the whole thing crashes down and you don't get out?
The same as if my stocks crash, my real estate crashes or I lose my job. I have diversified investments so that any one failure does not severely risk my position. Even if BTC crashes, the market will simply to move to the next best coin (ETH, LTC etc), I also have coverage in those just in case.
In short, everything has risk. But no-one ever won the game by not playing.
What's interesting about the bubble crowd is that the only example of human history they have to cling on is some obscure reference from 1637. In the following 380 years they can't come up with anything else...
Just because the U.S. might slip in it's dominance doesn't mean we don't try harder, it means that, for some period of time, we slipped in our dominance.
So you don't get to be on top by accident, What policies do you think will help the US become an attractive destination for the great minds around the world?
The entire country also has no train line longer than 40km, and the majority of the lines are a fraction of that length.
Hong Kong may have had some design decisions forced on them by geography, but we can learn from that if we want improved urban transport services.
Where I live the local government keeps rezoning farm land 50kms+ out from the CBD without adding infrastructure. So everyone buys more cars and the problems continue to get worse.
The train network in Hong Kong is less complicated than the metro system of many cities
Also a geographic limitation which they benefit from. The island is a ribbon of high density running east west, and the mainland is a ribbon running north south (not quite but you get the point). It allows for extremely efficient use of transport resources and you only need a couple of lines to service 80% of the locations people want to go. Perhaps we should be designing cities to cater for these modes of transport rather than just putting shit everywhere then trying to figure out how to untangle the spaghetti?
You lost because people are sick and tired of your excessive political correctness. Stop whining and quit trying to force your unwanted social programs down everyone's throats. You lost because you are out of touch with what the people want and need. Grow up, liberals, and get over yourself.
Thank you for your divisive comments comrade. You've earned your Rubles for today...
Slashdot Mirror
The only thing creating division in the U.S. right now is...
Them! It's not us it's them!
Your post is part of the problem. My post is part of the problem. As soon as it turn into us vs them we all lose.
Stop treating everything as us and them and we might have a chance at moving forward together.
now imagine the entire country being run by NYC and a few other big cities. No thanks
And rightly so. The needs of the city differs from the needs of the country so why try to cover them with one political entity?
With mass migration to cities over the decades I think we're at a point we should revert to city states.
Dunno about GP, but I like the fact that big, heavily-populated states (California, New York, Texas) don't get to set the agenda for the rest of us. Unlike Congress (specifically the Senate, with two Senators per state), the Electoral College is the only thing that allows smaller states to get a voice in the Executive branch of government.
Being non-American, what I don't get is why the USA, which clearly has quite diverse opinions about things, is still a single entity?
If we take the emotion out of it, it would seem that splitting into 3 or 4 'super states' would solve a lot of the current political issues.
There must be an optimum size for country to function most effectively, and the US is making quite clear that 320M+ is too big. 4 smaller nations of 80M people each with a common defence pact would probably work a whole lot better.
Its not quite that simple. First mover is only an advantage if there is some sort of switching cost. Since consumer use involves holding little bitcoin, and any held bitcoins can be easily traded for other coins, there is little to no switching cost.
Switch to what? Unless you're going to make the argument that BTC is a scam but every other Crypto is ok, then the only option is switching back to fiat. We're already past that point, just like how we're not going back to VHS progress moves forward
You'll also likely be the person moaning that they lost everything in a years time.
File-> Save.
See you next year...
People not learning that crypto currency is a frickin' scam. No sympathy.
Email is also a scam, as are telephones.. and people! All scams, every one of them. If anyone ever scammed someone using something then that thing is a scam. No doubt.
Yeah they actually did. 70% for Manhattan and 60% for London.
Ok now you're making stuff up. At no point did the average real estate market drop by 60 or 70% in London or Manhattan.
"Rustbelt" is now apparently florida which has yet to recover, including large parts of texas, az, and so on.
*Some* parts, generally the parts that don't have work to support the market. This is not some random thing, there are actually reasons why it happens which are predictable.
Meanwhile every major city is experiencing record growth.
When the number of vacancies in those houses sit empty.
Right but you need to dig deeper before making any conclusions. We have empty properties here to for a couple of reasons. One is foreigners who treat it as a land bank. They don't trust their own banks so hold their funds in foreign real estate. A lot of these people can do this for decades so are not not likely to trigger a mass sale. If all those condos were held by subprime mortgages you might have a point.
This is exactly what caused previous real estate crashes in both residential and commercial properties.
What previous crash? Australia has never has one. Some shit suburbs in the middle of nowhere have fallen a little, but that is normal in any free market. Most in or near a capital city or beach have had continual growth for 30 years.
Except your perspective is wrong. While "wages are high" the price of housing outstrips that earning.
Two points. While wages are high and unemployment low, current owners have no need to sell, so there's no driver for a crash.
And for new owners, you're still stuck in the average wage vs average price mindset. Prior to WW2 regular people couldn't afford land. Rich people owned it all and regular people rented. The idea that everyone owns their own house was an aberration caused by the effects of WW2 and modernisation (ie cars and roads opening up a vast supplies of land). If you go back to the 2000 years prior to WW2, rich people owned everything. It is possible that we're merely shifting back to that model.
Prices will be high and stay high because rich people buy it all and have assets to fund this cycle.
For Australia the crash is already starting
Right. I have three properties all in different locations, and all of them are up 10-20% in the last 12 months. There is some cooling in some areas, but as I said free markets have fluctuations and those areas are generally not demand areas. So yeah I expect the crap suburbs will experience some corrections in the regions of 5-10%, but nothing like 30%+. Anywhere within 15km of the CBD is and has always been strong.
What's interesting about the bitcoin crowd is that they rely so heavily on ignorance and lies.
Which ones are those? Maybe you could elaborate? Because you know when you say "the bitcoin crowd" it's like saying "all black people", or "all women"...
If you want to discuss details let's discuss. If you just want to walk around in circles shouting catchphrases at anything that moves I'll leave you to it.
Bitcoin's current spike in price is largely due to wall street speculation.
Or popularity. Remember the only thing that counts is supply and demand. Supply is finite, demand is increasing, so there is a tipping point where prices take off which is now. So ask yourself, has demand peaked? It will peak eventually but until we reach man-on-street level of investing there's still lots of room to move.
The other question is supply. BTC might be replaced but that won't happen overnight. Being first mover they have the benefits of incumbency, and if you follow the crypto tech you'll get a better idea of how the competition is faring.
The blockchain will be part of our future but bitcoin could easily be displaced by another digital coin.
Could or could not who's to say. This is the point.
Calling bubble is not a prediction, you have to know when the market will rise and fall to get any value. And right no
The condo bubble, especially the Toronto condo bubble saw 80% of their value disappear.
Ok sounds like a localised issue. I'm pretty sure apartments in Manhattan or London didn't suffer similar 'corrections'
The 2008 crash in the US? Depends on where you were,
Exactly. You can't just blanket 'real estate' as one thing. A shitbox subprime purchase in the rust belt is not equivalent in any way to buying house in say Palo Alto.
Economics is just supply and demand. In a lot of places, the demand is real, the supply is finite. Not all high priced things are bubbles.
Take your pick, but the larger the bubble the bigger the correction.
But how do you tell if a high priced thing is a bubble, or actually sustained by real demand? If you had've said ten years ago that the most popular mobile phones would cost $1000USD you'd be laughed out of the room. Yet here we are. Are iPhones a bubble?
The housing bubble in Canada is massive. Australia ranks second.
I can't speak for Canada, but I've heard the same arguments in Australia (eg average income vs average house price). One thing to think about is the formula used to calculate such things. I think the classic formulas no longer apply for various reasons, one is most households now have double incomes, most homeowners now have accumulated wealth that wasn't the case in the 1960's/70's, and urbanisation and population growth has crossed a tipping point in major cities to create a positive feedback loop in the demand curve.
To give some perspective, wages in Australia are high and unemployment and interest rates are low. One or all of these things has to change drastically to affect housing demand, and there is no change on the horizon.
Ultimately how do you calculate the value of a thing? Historically most people didn't own their own house, this changed after WW2 and a lot of people considered this the new normal. But what I believe is that the real normal is going back to prewar where a handful rich people owned everything and regular folks couldn't afford land. As much as this sucks, this could just be the new reality.
Because its only smugness that would make one suspicious of a fast exponential spike in price from $300 to $8,000.
Nothing wrong with being suspicious. I was suspicious of Apple's growth from near bankruptcy to world's most wealthiest company in less than 10 years. But here we are.
The steel, rail, and electric companies all saw similar growth rates during their infancy. Disruptive technology is disruptive.
Its not like bitcoin didn't have one of those in 2014 where it spiked to $1,000 and then crashed to $250 and sat there for years.
As has gold, real estate, shares etc. If you stopped investing in shares after the GFC you'd look pretty foolish now.
Will it go to $20K, quite possibly yes. Will it go there without a substantial drop between now and then, not likely.
I agree, but if your investment strategy is long term, short term dips are meaningless. .
What's interesting about the bubble crowd is that the only example of human history they have to cling on is some obscure reference from 1637. In the following 380 years they can't come up with anything else...
Say, you must be Albanian!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albanian_Civil_War
Right, here's some more straws for you to grasp. Or do you have any actual connection to that and blockchain technology that you'd like to share with us?
No, as I said there are plenty of examples.
There's plenty of examples of things that are in no way related to Cryptocurrency. BTC has nothing in common with Tulips or Beanie Babies other than being popular. If that's the only qualification to be a bubble, then so is electricity, automobiles and the Internet...
Beanie babies. Happy now?
So Tulips and Beanie Babies. I didn't even know what hey were and had to look them up. If that is you basis for financial advice I'd find another hobby.
It feels like it has the makings of an event that could displace tulips in history.
It feels like? I'm sure someone said the same thing about the steam engine, electricity, TV and the Internet. Disruptive technology is disruptive.
What are you going to do with BTC if the whole thing crashes down and you don't get out?
The same as if my stocks crash, my real estate crashes or I lose my job. I have diversified investments so that any one failure does not severely risk my position.
Even if BTC crashes, the market will simply to move to the next best coin (ETH, LTC etc), I also have coverage in those just in case.
In short, everything has risk. But no-one ever won the game by not playing.
This observation is probably due to the fact that criminals (drug dealers, robbers etc) are more likely to end up shot or dead,
That explains all why the US accounts for 91% of gun related deaths of children under 14
http://pediatrics.aappublicati...
Houses might lose 50-60% of their value.
Or 100% or 10% or they might gain 20%...
Bitcoin might lose 99%.
Or 100% or 10% or it might gain 20%...
There's the difference.
No there isn't.
That $1.5m house in the burbs that's a hot ticket item right now is only going to be worth $250k in a couple of years at best guess.
Right. So your wisdom is based purely on you guessing wildly? You'll excuse me if I don't base my investment strategy on such flimsy logic.
Brand recognition is everything in fiat money.
Why is the USD the world reserve currency? Stellar leadership?
Stable leadership and lack of alternatives. And both of those are about to change...
Gold, of course, is a real thing. It can be used in electronics and jewelry.
BTC can be used to transfer money across borders without government interference. That is of great use to many people.
It can't just be forked or replicated by someone who thinks they can make better gold that will be more interesting to gold speculators.
So you've never heard of silver, or platinum, or pork belly futures? None of this is new...
So you may have a point, but on the other hand, it's not at all like gold.
It's exactly like gold, or tulips. It is an arbitrary thing that some people associate with value.
..... from those that think they missed out.
Well there are also the thank you's to buyers from those of us selling at $8,000. We'll talk again at $2,000. ;-)
Or $20k. That's the funny thing about the future, no amount smugness will make you any better at predicting it.
You're right. Stocks and houses actually represent something of value.
Like stocks in Enron, or houses in Pripyat...
What's interesting about the bubble crowd is that the only example of human history they have to cling on is some obscure reference from 1637. In the following 380 years they can't come up with anything else...
Just because the U.S. might slip in it's dominance doesn't mean we don't try harder, it means that, for some period of time, we slipped in our dominance.
So you don't get to be on top by accident, What policies do you think will help the US become an attractive destination for the great minds around the world?
The entire country also has no train line longer than 40km, and the majority of the lines are a fraction of that length.
Hong Kong may have had some design decisions forced on them by geography, but we can learn from that if we want improved urban transport services.
Where I live the local government keeps rezoning farm land 50kms+ out from the CBD without adding infrastructure. So everyone buys more cars and the problems continue to get worse.
The train network in Hong Kong is less complicated than the metro system of many cities
Also a geographic limitation which they benefit from. The island is a ribbon of high density running east west, and the mainland is a ribbon running north south (not quite but you get the point). It allows for extremely efficient use of transport resources and you only need a couple of lines to service 80% of the locations people want to go. Perhaps we should be designing cities to cater for these modes of transport rather than just putting shit everywhere then trying to figure out how to untangle the spaghetti?
You lost because people are sick and tired of your excessive political correctness. Stop whining and quit trying to force your unwanted social programs down everyone's throats. You lost because you are out of touch with what the people want and need. Grow up, liberals, and get over yourself.
Thank you for your divisive comments comrade. You've earned your Rubles for today...