Was a specialized enterprise. Not anymore; witness iMovie or Final Cut Express.
I am still stunned by this. I remember building and demo'ing Media 100 systems in 1997; you needed at least $20k for something reasonable (i.e. Big Mac w/gobs of RAM, SCSI arrays, specialized PCI board and breakout box, industrial VTR, preview monitor, time-base corrector...) and that didn't get you fancy realtime effects.
A $1500 iMac just spanks the crap out of this system I used to sell, requires no extra hardware (firewire is beautiful), and the quality is superior.
So, past tense.
Now, back on topic, accessing 4GB of memory is very desirable in this situation; 4GB of DV footage is measured in minutes. It would be nice to manuipulate more than minutes in RAM, no? (also, RAM Preview in After Effects would be really sweet).
.. but you may as well get used to it. Like any bad nickname, it is doomed to remain forever, and its usage is actually fuelled by hatred of the word in part (discussion). Is 'weblog' really much better?
I hated 'surfing' when the web first appeared... it seemed like such a lame comparison.. or 'browse' for that matter, which is something animals to when they forage for food.
Don't focus on typing on the lame-ass phone keypad, it was never meant for that. T9 predictive text helps insofar as entering 'lunch with Bob on tuesday' but you wouldn't want to write more than a sentance or two at most.
If I want to remember a detail for a blog, I use the voice recording feature on my T68i. Just take the memo, its way faster than typing, and you can do it while you're driving or whatever if you have an earpiece. I listen to the recordings when I upload (but only really as a reference, I type something 'fresh' based on what I recorded).
If you ask me, voice-to-text is the one missing piece that would really solve the problem of text entry on mobile devices. If the phone (or a backend app) could turn my recorded voice into live text... that would rock.
Of all the record companies out there, do any of them have the wherewithal to really skirt the problem? Specifically, do you think anyone will actually start to work towards a virtual star?
It's certainly not inconceivable now. You hire (on salary) an actor to provide a body-motion template for the mocap; you also hire (salaried) vocalists and songwriters to provide the music. Never let any of these people meet, keep their contracts separate. Real human backing bands are easy enough to hire. Also get yourself a floor full of Dicreet Logic stuff, and a fully outfitted music video soundstage, and you could basically render yourself a rock star.
It's funny - we talk about how backwards and tech-challenged the record companies are, because they cannot deal with the likes of P2P... it's almost inconceivable to imagine one of them taking the initiative like this. Well, one of the old ones, anyways....
The gist of the story is that a programmer named Lawrence has written a Super-Intelligent Artificial Intelligence...
Okay, cool, I'm with you...
The SIAI learns about the fundamental nature of reality, death, physics, the relationship of distance to an object, and it takes over. It does so reluctantly, after learning about the mortality of the human race.
Hm, sounds interesting...
The novel begins with Caroline.
What happened to Lawrence?
Her claims to fame are that she is the thirty-seventh oldest living being, she is the undisputed queen of the "death-jockies" (A community of upset and angsty immortals who try to experience death in as many ways as possible, before the Prime Intellect reasserts their immortality), and she is the only person Post-Singularity to have "died".
Like OSX, even in it's simplest state, it uses MORE processor cycles looking pretty than I would ever want my machine using. At a conference I ran a TOP under OSX and watched as I simply drug a window around; it ate 85-90% of the CPU!
Just a small point, but that is not UI bloat.
Did it do what you wanted it to do? (i.e. move the window?) Did it open the CPU meter quickly, giving feedback as it did so? Sounds like your UI is working fine.
Whether or not the CPU pegged, for this example, is irrelevant. Obviously its nice if it didn't, but in the end you got what you wanted, right?
I used to hate it when the Slashdot crowd starts arguing about interfaces. There's a lot of misconceptions about how UIs work, and usability in general. That said, it is always valuable - as assinine as it sounds - to listen to everybody.
This is one of the secrets of interface design, listen carefully: everyone is right.
I have been working on a next-gen OS user interface for about two years in my spare time. Some of you might remember a posting from a week or so ago; I asked what a UI designer could do to make some positive contributions to an Open Source project (and I got some great answers). Now, I'm going to ask for some more advice, and hope that this story isn't so far down in the queue that it gets overshadowed.
First some backstory.
This interface I've designed works on two guiding principles. The first being that users no longer need the desktop metaphor. It does away with it completely. The second principle involves chaging how you work by tracking different paths of behaviour on the part of the user. For instance, the OS tracks a History of Everything. If you've ever used Photoshop's History palette, you have an inkling of what I'm talking about. You always have available to you a branching diagram of where you've been and what you've done, into the past (to a certain extent), and have the ability to change your path or backtrack and try a new method.
I've also made extensive use of modern computing interface ideas. You still wave a pointer around using the mouse, and control things with the keyboard, as there is a certain amount of knowledge that cannot really be 'undone' in the typical user's mind. This is not a bad thing, but it does make it more difficult to truly break new ground. One instance in my project is the use of GUI Windows - I've basically done away with them in favour of Pie Menus. Window-pane type objects still exist when appropriate, but generally are reserved for Applications (another paradigm that is necessary out of pure economics).
Anyways, I don't want to give away a whole lot here yet as I'm still finishing it. It's in the form of a Flash projector that you can run full-screen to get an idea of what I'm talking about.
Now, my question (still with me?)... do you, Slashdotters, think that you would truly be willing to 'put up' with a radically new interface paradigm, if you thought it was worthwhile? I know the question sounds a bit spurious, "of course I'll use it if its better". But you need to think. The very limited testing I've done with a small group of people has had great feedback, but also great growing pains. The grip that your UI habits have on you are incredibly strong. The vast majority of frustration amongst users occurs when they become accustomed and familiar with a particular function, and then it changes on them. Even if the change is better, it is fequently painful for the user -- even to the point where they will discount the experience entirely as being 'not right'.
Of course, my project could just be an abject failure so far.:) But I don't think so. Personally, i believe that using a computer should be like playing a piano. The information should just glide, enabling inprovisation, suggesting alternatives, and generally a whole lot of fun. Think Minority Report. Didn't you just giggle when you saw that interface?
Anyways, enough gibberish. Slashdot, your thoughts and suggestions are much appreciated, as I am basically targeting this UI initially as a windowmanager replacement for one of the Linux distros and possibly OS X... and moreover, I am targeting this UI at YOU.
Also, why are you calling me "white man"?
"Tonto, we're surrounded by Indians!"
"What do you mean 'we', white man?"
We seem to be agreeing so vehemently that we've started an argument. I hate it when that happens.
Erm, no! I diagree with your agreement of us agreeing!... uh, Beige Man!
(sorry I missed the reference... it's been a long day defending my screwball position on/.)
I'd suggest that most New Yorkers have no problem with NYC traffic because most of them do not own or drive cars. So... what do you mean "we", white man? The subway is a vastly superior answer than the segway, for major metropolitan areas.
Royal "we".
I take the subway every damn day, and I don't have a segway. In case you haven't noticed, there are not a whole lot of subways in the world.
There is an upper limit to productivity. People need slack time in their lives. I've actually read articles which stated that folks looked forward to their time stuck in traffic as a period in which they could unwind and relax and think about things that otherwise don't have time to do so during the workday.
Wouldn't it be great though, if you could choose how to spend that slack time, rather than be stuck in your car? It's a good point you have, but it doesn't really make for a good selling point for cars... 'think of all that reading you can do in traffic!'
Still, you take a cheapo $1000 car off of ebay, pay $800 a year in insurance and add your gas bill which will vary due to your particular usage. How is this suppossed to be costly again?
It doesn't even compare.
Segway = $5000 + approx. $100/year for juice
Car = $1000 + approx. $50/month gas, $150/month parking, $whatever insurance, $whatever maintenance (more since you bought a cheapo).
To my mind, that means the car and the Segway break even after 1.5 years or so. The car loses badly every year thereafter. The car offers you much more capability, but it's much more expensive, and much more dangerous. That's my opinion. (Also, I hated it when I had my car, and a repair bill came out of nowhere. The Segway is a lot less likely to break down, less moving parts.)
Noise, more noise comes from idiots blasting their car stereo's than from the cars themselves.
I see that as a plus for Segways, as I would probably wear my iPod.:)
NYC is a city of 8 million people. Out of that 1640 die from car accidents during a six year period. That means every year only 273 people are killed due to our use of automobiles. I find that to be a more than an acceptable level of death. If you are talking about the entire state of NY then its even a more acceptable level of death.
Dude, I find 'acceptable level of death' to be a totally unacceptable comment, but whatever. Cars are deadly, Segways are not.
Now, I understand the "early-adopter" model of sales and everything,and that's fine. That tends to work because early adopters still end up with a product they want, and were willing to pay a premium for the utility and the cache of being first. However, you seem to be suggesting that we should support a product that we don't want so that a company can develop a product that we do want. If I'm going to be Dean Kamen's venture capitalist, I'd like to get more for my money than an 40 kg plastic scooter.
You're right, and I agree completely. I don't mean to suggest that/. readers buy one just because 'its the right thing to do'... more like, I was so alarmed at the number of people who were willing to discount the idea, and the tech, outright, since 'their car is better'. You know, no one wants to feel stupid or evil for buying a car, and I'm not suggesting that they are. I just wanted to goose people a little into opening their eyes at just how brutal the current situation is. Seems like no one will sacrifice anything, however minor, about their cars.
Yes it does. It's just that the pollution is moved. That energy doesn't come free you know - you have to charge the Segway, and that power has to come from a power plant, which does pollute.
Moot. The Segway itself does not pollute; whether you get your energy from a 'green' source or not is beside the point. In fact, I could conceivably get green energy for the Segway; the car leaves you very, very few options.
I don't see noise as an issue either - modern hybrid cars make little noise (only when their engines are actually on).
That's great. I hope we get more. Right now, it's noisy downtown.
Yeah, so instead people will spend 4+ hours a day on their Segway. Because you didn't change anything - even if they can go top speed on the Segway then you're limited to ~12 mph. If your commute is 25 miles (which is not at all unusual in most major metro areas) then it's going to take you two hours at top speed, uninterrupted, on a Segway. A more realistic figure would be 2.5 hours. And, of course, the Segway doesn't even have enough range to do a 25 mile commute.
That is a good point (the time spent). Of course, forgetting productivity and all that for a sec, those hours are not spent polluting the environment, every day.
If your commute is 25 miles the Segway is not for you.
Heck, it's not viable for my family - I have a 4 mile commute that takes 15 minutes. My wife has a 10 mile commute that takes 45-60 minutes. With a Segway the time spent would remain about the same (under perfect circumstances), but now I'm screwed if it rains (~150 days/year), when it's hot and muggy (~6 months), when it's godawful cold (~1 month), etc. And cargo? What cargo? What about running errands (which I do during lunch 2-3 times/week)? Picking up groceries on the way home? Just about anything else?
Whew! ok...
Why are you screwed if it rains? Seriously? It does operate in rain. I also operate in rain on my own legs. Hot? I don't see that as a problem either. Snow might be a problem if there's a lot, but they even have snow tires for the thing. Cargo sucks compared to a car, it's true. I have no answer for this; I think it's a small price for all the other benefits. (I generally get things delivered, including my groceries. I live in a big city.)
I rent cars for extended trips out of the city, or what have you. Doing this once a month costs me $90 CDN.
Bullshit. You cannot compare the redness or an apple to the redness of an orange in a favorable way. But as a piece of fruit or as a snack, the two can be compared. Similarly, as a 'revolutionary transportation device', the Segway can be compared quite easily to just about any powered or unpowered vehicle that I, the parent, and many others have mentioned.
Heh. Okay. I can work with that.
Let's compare.
Price: Segway is $5000, plus whatever electricity you use to power it (let's say $100/year). Car is anywhere between $1000-$100,000, plus gas ranging from $50/month and going waaay up, plus parking at home and work, plus maintenance (the real killer), plus insurance.
Capability: Segway cannot work in snow, has a range of 20 miles or so, is not enclosed, has minimal storage. Car can do all of these things better.
Impact on citizenry (a little broad, bear with me): Segway would probably quadruple in-town traffic, possibly some minor collisions resulting in injury, some infrastructure changes needed (although not much; wheelchair ramps are most places), environment benefits immensely. Cars have huge traffic problems in cities, kill many thousands per year and injure millions, no infrastructure change necessary except to expand to fit yet more cars, which are bigger all the time.
That's the way I see it. The car costs a hell of a lot more, and you get all sorts of convenience and all sorts of hassle, and possibly death, for that money. Oh, and it screws the environment. And they're loud. Now, I know I am in the minority when I say this, but I think something like a Segway is worth it over the long term. If it's viable for you, that is; its meant for city dwellers (not for commuting surburbanites or rural folk.)
It's so easy to forget the damage cars do. For whatever reason, I am painfully aware of it. I only owned a car for a year before I decided that I hated the whole idea of cars... and I loved my car, and I love driving. But I couldn't justtify it.
I can't remember from your other postings, but do you have one of these scooters now? If not, why not?
No, I don't own one. I wish I did. I can't justify it yet in my particular circumstances... as my city (Toronto) has a pretty good public transportation system, so I use that. I have that luxury.
Family trips, or in my case any trip out of the city, I rent a car. That 1-2 days I need it out of a month, makes this very cost effective (usually $90 CDN for the weekend).
Thanks for your reply, it was interesting and made me think of a few things.
I think you're right about the backlash; the world, or at least the new 'car', was promised by the media and that was not delivered. I partially blame Kamen for that (comments like, oh, 'this will be the new car', didn't help). I also blame the mediagasm in general - it was quite unique.
Alright, I've already answered most of your points in other posts on this thread, I'm tired of typing, so I'll precis my position:
- Segway is not a bike, it cannot be compared to any self-powered vehicle.
- it is the first of its kind and while it has problems for sure, it should be improved, not scorned.
- Of course your car seems like a better value-proposition now, it has massive economies of scale behind it. If we do start seeing some real environmental damage affecting our live's, an enterprising person will design a nice portable bike that will be an instant craze in places like manhattan.
Boy, I don't know about you man, but I see all kinds of evidence staring me in the face. I'm terrified of what I see. Apparently they can't grow wheat in large parts of Canada's prairies now. The number of tropical storms around the Gulf of Mexico have increased exponentially in the last 10 years. Giant chunks of the ice shelf are snapping off.
But even if all this stuff doesn't matter... we shouldn't pollute if we can help it, right?
I hear what you're saying. New York was probably a bad example because they have a subway. Subway systems are still a rarity in the world.
You seem to think I'm advocating that the Segway could solve all of NY's traffic problems if only everyone bought one, and that's obviously not true.
My problem is that people seem to hate the Segway, which strikes me as narrow-minded. The thing obviously has huge potential.
I guess, in the end, all the arguments about how hard one will hit you, or how inconveinent it would be in rain, or how expensive the Segway is.... I just cannot get past the automobile's higher cost, harder impact, higher price environmentally.
If you haven't read The Immortal Class by Travis Hughley, I suggest you do.
Thanks, I'll look for that.
I can't believe Kamen (and Jobs and all the other investors) thought that the Segway was a good idea. No protection from the elements (let's see anyone use one in Minneapolis in February), big, clunky, a target for theft, you can't put blinged-out rims on it, no room for a subwoofer
I can. Kamen's the consummate future optimist. This is a trait you can see in lots of 'genius' type people; they simply can't understand why people just don't get with the program and come up with something better. Then they are confused when this happens.
I think it's overpriced, and has issues. But it's version one. Everyone side-steps that. His plan was sound, sell to vertical markets, get it in front of people and prove it's safe. But the next version - and especially the economies of scale that will allow for cheaper versions - will be better. If they hang in there, that is.
The thing I'm pissed about is that everyone on this forum, supposedly a forward-thinking forum, wants to knife the baby before it's even grown up just a little. And that's sad.
Have you ever been to New York? Foot traffic can often be just as bad as automobile traffic, especially during the summer. I dread having to go anywhere near Time Square during the summer. The sidewalks are overflowing with people. Now imagine it if everybody was just a little bit wider and a lot more inflexible.
Yeah, I've been there. It is totally crowded. Because people can't DRIVE. So they walk.
Now, picture the roads being used for Segways (suspend your guffaws for a sec and just imagine, okay? Please?) How many Segway's can you fit in a lane?
What about safety?
Exactly! Safety! Why do people attack the Segway when cars are one of the top-10 causes of death?
I recommend you get out of your ivory tower and actually take a walk sometime and see what it is really like out there.
Alright, I will do that. In the meantime, open your mind a little.
Fatalities suck, but death is something we'll never eliminate. We'll put up with a certain amount to have our precious cars.
Say what you mean, dude. Like this:
For the six year period from 1993 to 1998, an average of 1,640 people in New York were killed annually as a result of motor vehicle crashes. During this same period, an average of 286,000 New Yorkers annually were injured in traffic crashes. Data for New York City indicates that 26.7 percent of these total statewide annual traffic fatalities, and 43 percent of total statewide crash injuries occurred within city limits.
This can be avoided. We should try, at least.
Pollution is being handled with hybrids and fuel-cell developments. The cars 50 years from now won't be polluters at all.
Pollution could be stopped today. The Segway obviously doesn't pollute. 50 years? That's confortably out of your frame of reference, isn't it? "I won't worry, they'll have it solved in 50 years." Ridiculous. Take some responsibility. We all need to.
Noise? You get used to it. Deal.
Why should I? It doesn't have to be this way. Why are you so against fixing the problems with the current situation? Or do you really believe that it cannot be improved, that all this is a necessary evil?
Cost? Cost of what? Bottled water costs more than gas and you can get cheap ass used cars off of ebay. What cost?
You have got to be kidding. I can't believe you even typed that. I'm not going to get into the cost of running a car in a city. I will quickly mention that your average condo parking spot - a square of concrete - in Toronto is $CDN 30,000.
Traffic? Yeah it sucks.
It doesn't just suck, it's totally insane. Imagine the productivity lost with everyone spenind 2+hours a day in their car.
The space they take up? Do you know how large the US is in terms of space?
The Segway is meant to alleviate the most obvious traffic problem, that of congested cities. It clearly can't cross great distances. There is no alternative to the car for this right now.
Despite the hate, SUV sales contine to grow, grow grow, grow!
I get so angry reading the comments posted here about the Segway. Move on if you don't want to read some vitriol. I'm sorry, but it needs to be said.
Look - the Segway is an attempt to alleviate the total unmitigated disaster that is modern automotive traffic.
If you could all be so kind as to take a step back.. waaayyy back. Think of cars, particularly in cities. The fatalities. The noise. The pollution. The cost. The traffic. The space they take up. Were a self-respecting geek to examine this system from above, encountering it for the first time, I imagine they would recoil in horror. I can't see it as anything but a giant cluster-fuck.
Look at New York, downtown. Practically everyone living there would tell you that traffic is nigh-on impossible. But still, we tolerate it. We love our cars. We cannot give them up, not now, not ever... in fact, we want bigger ones!
People will not come to terms with the fact that the responsible thing to do is to explore these options. We simply must.
Now, I am fully aware of the Segway's limitations. Obviously it has problems with inclement weather, battery life, etc. Again, I must remind the reader that this is the first of it's kind. The arguments presented against the Segway are often ludicrous:
- "i can't use my hands".. you can't when you drive either
- "i've gotta stand up".. that's part of the point, they take up less room
- "they'll kill people on sidewalks".. amazing, this argument. It's a total non-starter. Anyone on rollerblades or a bike is much more of a danger.
Come on! We are the ones who should be embracing this! Who's gonna convince Kamen to invent the Segway you really want? You know, the chariot version, that gets 5x the distance, and is 1/5 the price? It cannot get here by itself.
I'm sorry for the rant, but frankly the blank-faced pessimism disgusts me. Where is your sense of wonder, Slashdot? Don't be like those fucking lemmings who close the case on new technology before it's even been tried.
I expect most members of the Academy see digital characters as a threat to their jobs. Digital characters don't need make-up, hair styling, or costumes. They don't need stunt men, or props. They don't need camera men or lighting designers - or, if they do, they need them to have very different skills.
Don't forget the Saruman-sized army of animators, compositors, modelers, texture artists, motion-capture engineers, sysadmins, software developers, and project managers you need to replace those camera, lighting and props guys.
Slashdot Mirror
Was a specialized enterprise. Not anymore; witness iMovie or Final Cut Express.
I am still stunned by this. I remember building and demo'ing Media 100 systems in 1997; you needed at least $20k for something reasonable (i.e. Big Mac w/gobs of RAM, SCSI arrays, specialized PCI board and breakout box, industrial VTR, preview monitor, time-base corrector...) and that didn't get you fancy realtime effects.
A $1500 iMac just spanks the crap out of this system I used to sell, requires no extra hardware (firewire is beautiful), and the quality is superior.
So, past tense.
Now, back on topic, accessing 4GB of memory is very desirable in this situation; 4GB of DV footage is measured in minutes. It would be nice to manuipulate more than minutes in RAM, no? (also, RAM Preview in After Effects would be really sweet).
I hated 'surfing' when the web first appeared... it seemed like such a lame comparison.. or 'browse' for that matter, which is something animals to when they forage for food.
If I want to remember a detail for a blog, I use the voice recording feature on my T68i. Just take the memo, its way faster than typing, and you can do it while you're driving or whatever if you have an earpiece. I listen to the recordings when I upload (but only really as a reference, I type something 'fresh' based on what I recorded).
If you ask me, voice-to-text is the one missing piece that would really solve the problem of text entry on mobile devices. If the phone (or a backend app) could turn my recorded voice into live text... that would rock.
I salute your brilliant rant good sir - it has a snappy rapid-fire quality to it that I find refreshing. cheers.
Of all the record companies out there, do any of them have the wherewithal to really skirt the problem? Specifically, do you think anyone will actually start to work towards a virtual star?
It's certainly not inconceivable now. You hire (on salary) an actor to provide a body-motion template for the mocap; you also hire (salaried) vocalists and songwriters to provide the music. Never let any of these people meet, keep their contracts separate. Real human backing bands are easy enough to hire. Also get yourself a floor full of Dicreet Logic stuff, and a fully outfitted music video soundstage, and you could basically render yourself a rock star.
It's funny - we talk about how backwards and tech-challenged the record companies are, because they cannot deal with the likes of P2P... it's almost inconceivable to imagine one of them taking the initiative like this. Well, one of the old ones, anyways....
1. Many of the things you suspect are true.
2. School is even less important than you think it is. Turns out you really didn't need calculus. Or French.
3. Don't follow any trends. Music, fashion, films. They're bogus, and they just want your money.
4. It is actually true that there are some cool adults. Seriously. But you won't likely find them in your teachers or parents friends.
5. Sell the Amiga; it ain't going anywhere."
Okay, cool, I'm with you... The SIAI learns about the fundamental nature of reality, death, physics, the relationship of distance to an object, and it takes over. It does so reluctantly, after learning about the mortality of the human race.
Hm, sounds interesting... The novel begins with Caroline.
What happened to Lawrence?
Her claims to fame are that she is the thirty-seventh oldest living being, she is the undisputed queen of the "death-jockies" (A community of upset and angsty immortals who try to experience death in as many ways as possible, before the Prime Intellect reasserts their immortality), and she is the only person Post-Singularity to have "died".
What... but the... who.. WTF?!
Plus... they frequently hired Jon Katz. I'm just putting that on the table. ;)
Bye bye, Silent F. Hope the slashdot-spanking doesn't melt that last server.
Just a small point, but that is not UI bloat.
Did it do what you wanted it to do? (i.e. move the window?) Did it open the CPU meter quickly, giving feedback as it did so? Sounds like your UI is working fine.
Whether or not the CPU pegged, for this example, is irrelevant. Obviously its nice if it didn't, but in the end you got what you wanted, right?
This is one of the secrets of interface design, listen carefully: everyone is right.
I have been working on a next-gen OS user interface for about two years in my spare time. Some of you might remember a posting from a week or so ago; I asked what a UI designer could do to make some positive contributions to an Open Source project (and I got some great answers). Now, I'm going to ask for some more advice, and hope that this story isn't so far down in the queue that it gets overshadowed.
First some backstory.
This interface I've designed works on two guiding principles. The first being that users no longer need the desktop metaphor. It does away with it completely. The second principle involves chaging how you work by tracking different paths of behaviour on the part of the user. For instance, the OS tracks a History of Everything. If you've ever used Photoshop's History palette, you have an inkling of what I'm talking about. You always have available to you a branching diagram of where you've been and what you've done, into the past (to a certain extent), and have the ability to change your path or backtrack and try a new method.
I've also made extensive use of modern computing interface ideas. You still wave a pointer around using the mouse, and control things with the keyboard, as there is a certain amount of knowledge that cannot really be 'undone' in the typical user's mind. This is not a bad thing, but it does make it more difficult to truly break new ground. One instance in my project is the use of GUI Windows - I've basically done away with them in favour of Pie Menus. Window-pane type objects still exist when appropriate, but generally are reserved for Applications (another paradigm that is necessary out of pure economics).
Anyways, I don't want to give away a whole lot here yet as I'm still finishing it. It's in the form of a Flash projector that you can run full-screen to get an idea of what I'm talking about.
Now, my question (still with me?)... do you, Slashdotters, think that you would truly be willing to 'put up' with a radically new interface paradigm, if you thought it was worthwhile? I know the question sounds a bit spurious, "of course I'll use it if its better". But you need to think. The very limited testing I've done with a small group of people has had great feedback, but also great growing pains. The grip that your UI habits have on you are incredibly strong. The vast majority of frustration amongst users occurs when they become accustomed and familiar with a particular function, and then it changes on them. Even if the change is better, it is fequently painful for the user -- even to the point where they will discount the experience entirely as being 'not right'.
Of course, my project could just be an abject failure so far. :) But I don't think so. Personally, i believe that using a computer should be like playing a piano. The information should just glide, enabling inprovisation, suggesting alternatives, and generally a whole lot of fun. Think Minority Report. Didn't you just giggle when you saw that interface?
Anyways, enough gibberish. Slashdot, your thoughts and suggestions are much appreciated, as I am basically targeting this UI initially as a windowmanager replacement for one of the Linux distros and possibly OS X... and moreover, I am targeting this UI at YOU.
Thanks.
Erm, no! I diagree with your agreement of us agreeing!... uh, Beige Man!
(sorry I missed the reference... it's been a long day defending my screwball position on /.)
Royal "we".
I take the subway every damn day, and I don't have a segway. In case you haven't noticed, there are not a whole lot of subways in the world.
Also, why are you calling me "white man"?
Wouldn't it be great though, if you could choose how to spend that slack time, rather than be stuck in your car? It's a good point you have, but it doesn't really make for a good selling point for cars... 'think of all that reading you can do in traffic!'
Still, you take a cheapo $1000 car off of ebay, pay $800 a year in insurance and add your gas bill which will vary due to your particular usage. How is this suppossed to be costly again?
It doesn't even compare.
Segway = $5000 + approx. $100/year for juice
Car = $1000 + approx. $50/month gas, $150/month parking, $whatever insurance, $whatever maintenance (more since you bought a cheapo).
To my mind, that means the car and the Segway break even after 1.5 years or so. The car loses badly every year thereafter. The car offers you much more capability, but it's much more expensive, and much more dangerous. That's my opinion. (Also, I hated it when I had my car, and a repair bill came out of nowhere. The Segway is a lot less likely to break down, less moving parts.)
Noise, more noise comes from idiots blasting their car stereo's than from the cars themselves.
I see that as a plus for Segways, as I would probably wear my iPod. :)
NYC is a city of 8 million people. Out of that 1640 die from car accidents during a six year period. That means every year only 273 people are killed due to our use of automobiles. I find that to be a more than an acceptable level of death. If you are talking about the entire state of NY then its even a more acceptable level of death.
Dude, I find 'acceptable level of death' to be a totally unacceptable comment, but whatever. Cars are deadly, Segways are not.
You're right, and I agree completely. I don't mean to suggest that /. readers buy one just because 'its the right thing to do'... more like, I was so alarmed at the number of people who were willing to discount the idea, and the tech, outright, since 'their car is better'. You know, no one wants to feel stupid or evil for buying a car, and I'm not suggesting that they are. I just wanted to goose people a little into opening their eyes at just how brutal the current situation is. Seems like no one will sacrifice anything, however minor, about their cars.
Yes it does. It's just that the pollution is moved. That energy doesn't come free you know - you have to charge the Segway, and that power has to come from a power plant, which does pollute.
Moot. The Segway itself does not pollute; whether you get your energy from a 'green' source or not is beside the point. In fact, I could conceivably get green energy for the Segway; the car leaves you very, very few options.
I don't see noise as an issue either - modern hybrid cars make little noise (only when their engines are actually on).
That's great. I hope we get more. Right now, it's noisy downtown.
Yeah, so instead people will spend 4+ hours a day on their Segway. Because you didn't change anything - even if they can go top speed on the Segway then you're limited to ~12 mph. If your commute is 25 miles (which is not at all unusual in most major metro areas) then it's going to take you two hours at top speed, uninterrupted, on a Segway. A more realistic figure would be 2.5 hours. And, of course, the Segway doesn't even have enough range to do a 25 mile commute.
That is a good point (the time spent). Of course, forgetting productivity and all that for a sec, those hours are not spent polluting the environment, every day.
If your commute is 25 miles the Segway is not for you.
Heck, it's not viable for my family - I have a 4 mile commute that takes 15 minutes. My wife has a 10 mile commute that takes 45-60 minutes. With a Segway the time spent would remain about the same (under perfect circumstances), but now I'm screwed if it rains (~150 days/year), when it's hot and muggy (~6 months), when it's godawful cold (~1 month), etc. And cargo? What cargo? What about running errands (which I do during lunch 2-3 times/week)? Picking up groceries on the way home? Just about anything else?
Whew! ok...
Why are you screwed if it rains? Seriously? It does operate in rain. I also operate in rain on my own legs. Hot? I don't see that as a problem either. Snow might be a problem if there's a lot, but they even have snow tires for the thing. Cargo sucks compared to a car, it's true. I have no answer for this; I think it's a small price for all the other benefits. (I generally get things delivered, including my groceries. I live in a big city.)
I rent cars for extended trips out of the city, or what have you. Doing this once a month costs me $90 CDN.
Heh. Okay. I can work with that.
Let's compare.
Price: Segway is $5000, plus whatever electricity you use to power it (let's say $100/year). Car is anywhere between $1000-$100,000, plus gas ranging from $50/month and going waaay up, plus parking at home and work, plus maintenance (the real killer), plus insurance.
Capability: Segway cannot work in snow, has a range of 20 miles or so, is not enclosed, has minimal storage. Car can do all of these things better.
Impact on citizenry (a little broad, bear with me): Segway would probably quadruple in-town traffic, possibly some minor collisions resulting in injury, some infrastructure changes needed (although not much; wheelchair ramps are most places), environment benefits immensely. Cars have huge traffic problems in cities, kill many thousands per year and injure millions, no infrastructure change necessary except to expand to fit yet more cars, which are bigger all the time.
That's the way I see it. The car costs a hell of a lot more, and you get all sorts of convenience and all sorts of hassle, and possibly death, for that money. Oh, and it screws the environment. And they're loud. Now, I know I am in the minority when I say this, but I think something like a Segway is worth it over the long term. If it's viable for you, that is; its meant for city dwellers (not for commuting surburbanites or rural folk.)
It's so easy to forget the damage cars do. For whatever reason, I am painfully aware of it. I only owned a car for a year before I decided that I hated the whole idea of cars... and I loved my car, and I love driving. But I couldn't justtify it. I can't remember from your other postings, but do you have one of these scooters now? If not, why not?
No, I don't own one. I wish I did. I can't justify it yet in my particular circumstances... as my city (Toronto) has a pretty good public transportation system, so I use that. I have that luxury.
Family trips, or in my case any trip out of the city, I rent a car. That 1-2 days I need it out of a month, makes this very cost effective (usually $90 CDN for the weekend).
I think you're right about the backlash; the world, or at least the new 'car', was promised by the media and that was not delivered. I partially blame Kamen for that (comments like, oh, 'this will be the new car', didn't help). I also blame the mediagasm in general - it was quite unique.
Now, I'm off to go price electric bikes. :)
- Segway is not a bike, it cannot be compared to any self-powered vehicle.
- it is the first of its kind and while it has problems for sure, it should be improved, not scorned.
- Of course your car seems like a better value-proposition now, it has massive economies of scale behind it.
If we do start seeing some real environmental damage affecting our live's, an enterprising person will design a nice portable bike that will be an instant craze in places like manhattan.
Boy, I don't know about you man, but I see all kinds of evidence staring me in the face. I'm terrified of what I see. Apparently they can't grow wheat in large parts of Canada's prairies now. The number of tropical storms around the Gulf of Mexico have increased exponentially in the last 10 years. Giant chunks of the ice shelf are snapping off.
But even if all this stuff doesn't matter... we shouldn't pollute if we can help it, right?
You seem to think I'm advocating that the Segway could solve all of NY's traffic problems if only everyone bought one, and that's obviously not true.
My problem is that people seem to hate the Segway, which strikes me as narrow-minded. The thing obviously has huge potential.
I guess, in the end, all the arguments about how hard one will hit you, or how inconveinent it would be in rain, or how expensive the Segway is.... I just cannot get past the automobile's higher cost, harder impact, higher price environmentally.
Thanks, I'll look for that.
I can't believe Kamen (and Jobs and all the other investors) thought that the Segway was a good idea. No protection from the elements (let's see anyone use one in Minneapolis in February), big, clunky, a target for theft, you can't put blinged-out rims on it, no room for a subwoofer
I can. Kamen's the consummate future optimist. This is a trait you can see in lots of 'genius' type people; they simply can't understand why people just don't get with the program and come up with something better. Then they are confused when this happens.
I think it's overpriced, and has issues. But it's version one. Everyone side-steps that. His plan was sound, sell to vertical markets, get it in front of people and prove it's safe. But the next version - and especially the economies of scale that will allow for cheaper versions - will be better. If they hang in there, that is.
The thing I'm pissed about is that everyone on this forum, supposedly a forward-thinking forum, wants to knife the baby before it's even grown up just a little. And that's sad.
Yeah, I've been there. It is totally crowded. Because people can't DRIVE. So they walk.
Now, picture the roads being used for Segways (suspend your guffaws for a sec and just imagine, okay? Please?) How many Segway's can you fit in a lane?
What about safety?
Exactly! Safety! Why do people attack the Segway when cars are one of the top-10 causes of death?
I recommend you get out of your ivory tower and actually take a walk sometime and see what it is really like out there.
Alright, I will do that. In the meantime, open your mind a little.
Say what you mean, dude. Like this:
For the six year period from 1993 to 1998, an average of 1,640 people in New York were killed annually as a result of motor vehicle crashes. During this same period, an average of 286,000 New Yorkers annually were injured in traffic crashes. Data for New York City indicates that 26.7 percent of these total statewide annual traffic fatalities, and 43 percent of total statewide crash injuries occurred within city limits.
This can be avoided. We should try, at least.
Pollution is being handled with hybrids and fuel-cell developments. The cars 50 years from now won't be polluters at all.
Pollution could be stopped today. The Segway obviously doesn't pollute. 50 years? That's confortably out of your frame of reference, isn't it? "I won't worry, they'll have it solved in 50 years." Ridiculous. Take some responsibility. We all need to.
Noise? You get used to it. Deal.
Why should I? It doesn't have to be this way. Why are you so against fixing the problems with the current situation? Or do you really believe that it cannot be improved, that all this is a necessary evil?
Cost? Cost of what? Bottled water costs more than gas and you can get cheap ass used cars off of ebay. What cost?
You have got to be kidding. I can't believe you even typed that. I'm not going to get into the cost of running a car in a city. I will quickly mention that your average condo parking spot - a square of concrete - in Toronto is $CDN 30,000.
Traffic? Yeah it sucks.
It doesn't just suck, it's totally insane. Imagine the productivity lost with everyone spenind 2+hours a day in their car.
The space they take up? Do you know how large the US is in terms of space?
The Segway is meant to alleviate the most obvious traffic problem, that of congested cities. It clearly can't cross great distances. There is no alternative to the car for this right now.
Despite the hate, SUV sales contine to grow, grow grow, grow!
To my grow, grow, growing despair.
Look - the Segway is an attempt to alleviate the total unmitigated disaster that is modern automotive traffic.
If you could all be so kind as to take a step back.. waaayyy back. Think of cars, particularly in cities. The fatalities. The noise. The pollution. The cost. The traffic. The space they take up. Were a self-respecting geek to examine this system from above, encountering it for the first time, I imagine they would recoil in horror. I can't see it as anything but a giant cluster-fuck.
Look at New York, downtown. Practically everyone living there would tell you that traffic is nigh-on impossible. But still, we tolerate it. We love our cars. We cannot give them up, not now, not ever... in fact, we want bigger ones!
People will not come to terms with the fact that the responsible thing to do is to explore these options. We simply must.
Now, I am fully aware of the Segway's limitations. Obviously it has problems with inclement weather, battery life, etc. Again, I must remind the reader that this is the first of it's kind. The arguments presented against the Segway are often ludicrous:
- "i can't use my hands".. you can't when you drive either
- "i've gotta stand up".. that's part of the point, they take up less room
- "they'll kill people on sidewalks".. amazing, this argument. It's a total non-starter. Anyone on rollerblades or a bike is much more of a danger.
Come on! We are the ones who should be embracing this! Who's gonna convince Kamen to invent the Segway you really want? You know, the chariot version, that gets 5x the distance, and is 1/5 the price? It cannot get here by itself.
I'm sorry for the rant, but frankly the blank-faced pessimism disgusts me. Where is your sense of wonder, Slashdot? Don't be like those fucking lemmings who close the case on new technology before it's even been tried.
If you have already bought an HDTV, it is time to buy one.
If you have not bought an HDTV yet, it is not yet time to buy one.
Simple! (Don't believe me, check the posts.)
Don't forget the Saruman-sized army of animators, compositors, modelers, texture artists, motion-capture engineers, sysadmins, software developers, and project managers you need to replace those camera, lighting and props guys.