obviously, because global warming may lead to something very bad and very $$; if it doesn't lead to these things, not a lot of people will care. How do we know global warming might lead to something bad , at least in a quantitative sense ? All (all) of our detailed knowledge is from computer programs (climate models) which simulate changes in the future
However, It is an observed fact (fyfe) that over the last ten years, the surface temp of the earth has not increased as much as predicted by models; the models fail. The models also can't reconstruct the last few thousand years (Liu), where we Know what happened.
This anomaly is the main current argument of denialists (those who think global warming is not occurring, or is not manmade, or is not important) and cause for concern among climate scientists.
Several attempts have been made to find the missing heat without great acceptance, eg Cowtan (who are not, afaik, climatologists) say that the missing heat is in the Arctic, which is not well measured by instruments. It appears that Chen and Tung have found the answer: the earth is warming, but the heat is going into the ocean instead of the atmosphere.
SO: the models are clearly not accurate even on a 10year time scale. so why should we take seriously alarmist views about the future ? I guess it is probability: if there is even a X% chance that something really bad could happen, is it worth spending ~ 0.5% of global GDP (~ 850 billion dollars a year) to prevent this possible catastrophre ?
Me personally, my house is about 5 miles and 200 feet up from the Atlantic Ocean, so global warming is good for me: I get beachfront property......
So our biotech company is folding, and people are scrambling for jobs our VP/marketing is in the Airport, and she runs into a guy , a rich guy, she hasn't seen in ten years She says, yadda yadda, company going under, microarray slides, yadda.. and the guy says, I've been looking to aquire microarray technology....
I mean, you can't make this crap up
anyway, maybe your daughter is interested in money and career, and maybe she ain't
However, there are two things I feel pretty confident about:
for most Americans, the primary or major source of retirment income is soc sec hence, the most important thing she can do is vote for democrats who pledge to support soc sec
for most working americans, their most important financial asset, far bigger then their house, is the ability to earn a wage hence, disability insurance is like really important ( i would think that people who consider themselves logical and mathy can figure this one out...)
I mean, if SAS works, why waste time on hot cool stuff that may be obsolete in a year or two ? this whole innovation for the sake of innovation thing is so last century (see a post on crooked timber about a week or so ago, also P Krugman in his blog flagged a New Yorker article on the cult of innovation)
that an email on someone elses computer came from the shown recipient ? after all, people could be going to jail, or loosing their pensions: it is not enough to say, hey, lets look at other hard drives; you need forensic chain of evidence.
for years, we have been pouring billions (literaly) into stem cells, without a whole lot to show for it A few tens of millions, and a bionic pancreas is nearing usability
the original starwars concept ? Satellites in space would look for the heat signature of a rocket in boost phase, and decide, in a time to short for humans to be involved, if Russia was launching ICBMs at us
The idea that machines can't be autonomous and deadly is just silly beyond belief Since we are creating them, they will be like us: Does anyone else think we will get treated the way we (Europeans) treated Amerindians The potosi silver mine, the mouth of hell ??
fluke multimeters are about a 100 bucks Cheap ones that are readily available on ebay (you don't need sparkfun) are under 30
so, the real reason is that fluke is desperate to stop the loss of market share; each multimeter spark notes sells for 15 bucks is a potential 100 dollar sale that fluke lost
just total BS however, if you can post some data to back up your posistion - and not just anecdotal candidate couldn't understand C indirect pointer stuff - I will gladly apologize
sure, maybe 60% of the population can't become good coders, but they can learn enough to , say use Perl to filter stuff, or at least understand that coding is not magic
there are so many hours in the school day. Look at the world: real problems are war, famine, violence, lack of love this has nothing to do with coding I think that rather then take hours out of the k12 curriculum for coding, we should take hours out for psychology. maybe if children learned more about them selves and others, ti would help with the big problems
the abstract doesn't say they used data, it says they identified a math procedure that caused variation between the models
so, what you have are a lot of complex computer models that vary in output; the authors show that about half the variation is due to cloud mixing however, we have no idea if the models are in fact accurate, other then Fig 1b of Fyfe etal, which suggests that the models are in fact NOT accurate, so it doesn't matter if you lower the variation between them. http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf
I would remind people of history: in the early 1800s, people realized that CO2 absorbs IR, and the late 1800s, they realized that humans were actually putting out enough CO2 to make a diff Then, around 1900, someone pointed out that the atmosphere is optically thick in the IR (if you could see the color "IR" it would be pitch black all the time), so an increase in CO2 shouldn't matter This *scientific consensus* lasted untill the 1950s, when people realized that it is emission from the outer atmosphere that matttrs....
so, for 50 years, there was a consensus that CO2 human warming was hooey
jeezum, didn't *anyone* actually read the pdf files ? I looked at em, and the majority are what you expect - people methodically going thru punch lists and bug reports and fixes perfectly norma but no, the media+obamahaters have to make a big deal of it just once, I'd like one of you obamahaters to acknowlede a FACT today, there are people who are much better off thanks to PPACA - teenagers with leukemia, people with pre existing conditions, etc
and as for all the media BS about canceled policys - its clear that most of those policys weren't what you wold call "health insurance" eg policys that pay 100 dollars a day if hospitalized...those are like matilda's dad the used car sales man policys
in the 1980s, under R Reagan, the USofA supported one S Hussein in his war against Iraq, and in his use of chemical weapons. So what the US govt won't do is pretty extreme
why bother to file a bug report for software that is still in pre alpha What is the point ? To take just one of many, many examples: a straightforward task should be pasting a bitmap into a document program like writer or word This works in word, altho the large number of poorly documented options makes it difficult for the new user to understand; on the other hand, for almost every MS office question, there are one or two good websites, so 5 minutes on google usually produces an answer. with writer, this just didn't work why shoud i bother with a bug report on a program that isn't ready ?
Quote
'It seems to me that the ability to say "no" to profitable but peripheral business in order to strategically focus the company is a really important management task unquote no SH** Bosco; learning to focus on business with higher margin is something you should have engraved on your forehead on like, the first day of work.
Anyway, aside from the fanboys, everytime i try librre/open office, the don't work I know, ymmv About two months ago, I downloaded the latest open office clone and tried something real simple: paste a bitmap into a word document this works sort of ok in MS office; doesn't work at all in OO
The whole thing is idiotic: the money is in corporate; if they want features they will go for MS suite, which OO will never touch; if they want cloud, google If you want cheap, you can get last years MS suite off of ebay at very low cost
Much of Tesla's criticism of the Times was based on , supposedly, data that Tesla downloaded from the test vehicle. Does this security flaw make it more likely that tesla, or a tesla employee, could have altered the data ?
Most of the stations - esp in S Brooklyn, outer Queens and The Bronx, serve mainly commuters and New Yorkers ( I mean seriously, how many tourists go up to see the hall of famous americans in The Bronx ? or the Bronx Zoo ? or the Brooklyn Museum ? (fabulous Egyptian collection btw) Tourists need mainly manhattan, and the existing map does ok; the main problem is the multiplicity of trains on the tracks - local and express If you are a serious tourist, get a Guide Michelin, or whatever the e-quivalent is; it will tell you what to do to get to the Brooklyn Museum, or the Morris Jumel Mansion, or Lydig ave, or...
Anyway, I assume that like me, many of you have been in London/Paris etc, and I seem to recall from my long ago student days that relying on the subway map often led to long, unexpected walks.
Linux as a serious OS has been around for what, 10 years ? Yet almost no one uses it. At some point, you have to say, the market has spoken. For whatever reason, people don't like it. I work with a set of modest geeks, and none of them (not one) uses linux for anything. They all have tried it. SO, ymmv, but at some point you have to stop blaming the evil MS, and face up to the truth: people have had 10 years to try linux, and they have said NO (my personal opinion is the silly idea that choice is good, which accounts for all the distros, is a major factor in the lack of linux uptake)
The story goes like this: The founders wanted Dr Einsteins name, so several professors and big shots ($) wen to see albert, who was at Princeton Founders: Dr Einstein, we would like to name our new medical school after you AE: well, I'm not sure...I'm not a doctor Founders: well, we could name it after pasteur AE: what does Pasteur have to do with a jewish school (AECOM is legal subsidiary of Yeshiva University) Founders: well, in taht case, how about W Harvey AE: but he is british Founders: well the, we will go with Dr Schmorekin AE (looking puzzled), you know, I don't think I have ever heard of this doctor Schmorekin...are you sure people will know what your school is about ? founders (triumphantly) : you know doctor einstien, with your name, no one will ever ask that... AE, laughing, ok then , you have my blessing
during the mc carthy era, AECOM hired many leftists, and they also hired many woman, eg, as the story goes, Ora Rosen graduated 1st in her class at columbia medical school, and no one would hire her except AECOM
our species has been evolving for what - the last million or so years without a functional gene for synthesis of Vit C ? if you now re introduce that gene, what will happen ? perhaps we have evolved to deal wit low levels of vitamin c, and having high, continuous levels would now be toxic....aside from the fact that we don't really know how to do safe genetic engineering in humans yet (I assert this...google R Young white head)
When I was a graduate student in a molecular biology program in the late 80s or early 90s, i heard, in person, Linus talk the professors at my institution were pretty sarcastic, but one thing linus said stuck in my brain:
I take 10 grams a day, because if you look at how much vitamin C is in the blood of our closest animal relatives, chimps and gorillas, a human would need to take 10 grams a day to get the same level in the blood...but don't buy it from the drugstore , it is very exspensive, i buy it in 10 pound drums from a chemical company in cleveland OH (or maybe Akron)
of course, humans and guinea pigs are very unsusal in that they require vitamin c in the diet; almost all other mammals can make their own.
is a nominal 10 bucks a year wow for all the head ached, and very, very inferior GUI and user experinece of Gmail, not to mention the security issues, and the politics of having Gov't email running thru a service that looks at mail, they are saving 10 bucks a month
what is the psychology that leads people to dis word, a perfectly fine program ? Sure, it has idiosyncrasys, but show me a program that doesn't Sure, it has bugs and fails, but show me complex, or even simple, program that doesn't
I write 10-20 page documents with Auto table of contents, auto table of figures, lots of pasted tiffs, etc and a lot fo custom paragraph level formatting Works for me, ymmv (the biggest problem is the inability to group textbox and tiff without a frame)
Yet these same people assert that excel is "pro grade" wtf ?
havn't you guys heard of the London Whale ? Han't you read of reinhardt and rogoff ? of the Statistics profs who have for years been publishing papers showing that excel returns incorrect values for std statistical functions ?
Slashdot Mirror
obviously, because global warming may lead to something very bad and very $$; if it doesn't lead to these things, not a lot of people will care.
How do we know global warming might lead to something bad , at least in a quantitative sense ?
All (all) of our detailed knowledge is from computer programs (climate models) which simulate changes in the future
However, It is an observed fact (fyfe) that over the last ten years, the surface temp of the earth has not increased as much as predicted by models; the models fail.
The models also can't reconstruct the last few thousand years (Liu), where we Know what happened.
This anomaly is the main current argument of denialists (those who think global warming is not occurring, or is not manmade, or is not important) and cause for concern among climate scientists.
Several attempts have been made to find the missing heat without great acceptance, eg Cowtan (who are not, afaik, climatologists) say that the missing heat is in the Arctic, which is not well measured by instruments.
It appears that Chen and Tung have found the answer: the earth is warming, but the heat is going into the ocean instead of the atmosphere.
SO: the models are clearly not accurate even on a 10year time scale.
so why should we take seriously alarmist views about the future ?
I guess it is probability: if there is even a X% chance that something really bad could happen, is it worth spending ~ 0.5% of global GDP (~ 850 billion dollars a year) to prevent this possible catastrophre ?
Me personally, my house is about 5 miles and 200 feet up from the Atlantic Ocean, so global warming is good for me: I get beachfront property......
Fyfe
http://hypergeometric.wordpres...
liu
http://www.pnas.org/content/ea...
cowtan
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com...
chen and tung
http://www.washington.edu/news...
So our biotech company is folding, and people are scrambling for jobs
our VP/marketing is in the Airport, and she runs into a guy , a rich guy, she hasn't seen in ten years
She says, yadda yadda, company going under, microarray slides, yadda..
and the guy says, I've been looking to aquire microarray technology....
I mean, you can't make this crap up
anyway, maybe your daughter is interested in money and career, and maybe she ain't
However, there are two things I feel pretty confident about:
for most Americans, the primary or major source of retirment income is soc sec
hence, the most important thing she can do is vote for democrats who pledge to support soc sec
for most working americans, their most important financial asset, far bigger then their house, is the ability to earn a wage
hence, disability insurance is like really important ( i would think that people who consider themselves logical and mathy can figure this one out...)
I mean, if SAS works, why waste time on hot cool stuff that may be obsolete in a year or two ?
this whole innovation for the sake of innovation thing is so last century
(see a post on crooked timber about a week or so ago, also P Krugman in his blog flagged a New Yorker article on the cult of innovation)
mod up spot on
it ain't the tools, it is the tool users or their culture
that an email on someone elses computer came from the shown recipient ?
after all, people could be going to jail, or loosing their pensions: it is not enough to say, hey, lets look at other hard drives; you need forensic chain of evidence.
for years, we have been pouring billions (literaly) into stem cells, without a whole lot to show for it
A few tens of millions, and a bionic pancreas is nearing usability
tell me again why the bandwagon for stem cells
the original starwars concept ?
Satellites in space would look for the heat signature of a rocket in boost phase, and decide, in a time to short for humans to be involved, if Russia was launching ICBMs at us
The idea that machines can't be autonomous and deadly is just silly beyond belief
Since we are creating them, they will be like us: Does anyone else think we will get treated the way we (Europeans) treated Amerindians
The potosi silver mine, the mouth of hell ??
fluke multimeters are about a 100 bucks
Cheap ones that are readily available on ebay (you don't need sparkfun) are under 30
so, the real reason is that fluke is desperate to stop the loss of market share; each multimeter spark notes sells for 15 bucks is a potential 100 dollar sale that fluke lost
just total BS
however, if you can post some data to back up your posistion - and not just anecdotal candidate couldn't understand C indirect pointer stuff - I will gladly apologize
sure, maybe 60% of the population can't become good coders, but they can learn enough to , say use Perl to filter stuff, or at least understand that coding is not magic
there are so many hours in the school day.
Look at the world: real problems are war, famine, violence, lack of love
this has nothing to do with coding
I think that rather then take hours out of the k12 curriculum for coding, we should take hours out for psychology.
maybe if children learned more about them selves and others, ti would help with the big problems
the abstract doesn't say they used data, it says they identified a math procedure that caused variation between the models
so, what you have are a lot of complex computer models that vary in output; the authors show that about half the variation is due to cloud mixing
however, we have no idea if the models are in fact accurate, other then Fig 1b of Fyfe etal, which suggests that the models are in fact NOT accurate, so it doesn't matter if you lower the variation between them.
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf
I would remind people of history: in the early 1800s, people realized that CO2 absorbs IR, and the late 1800s, they realized that humans were actually putting out enough CO2 to make a diff
Then, around 1900, someone pointed out that the atmosphere is optically thick in the IR (if you could see the color "IR" it would be pitch black all the time), so an increase in CO2 shouldn't matter
This *scientific consensus* lasted untill the 1950s, when people realized that it is emission from the outer atmosphere that matttrs....
so, for 50 years, there was a consensus that CO2 human warming was hooey
jeezum, didn't *anyone* actually read the pdf files ?
I looked at em, and the majority are what you expect - people methodically going thru punch lists and bug reports and fixes
perfectly norma
but no, the media+obamahaters have to make a big deal of it
just once, I'd like one of you obamahaters to acknowlede a FACT
today, there are people who are much better off thanks to PPACA - teenagers with leukemia, people with pre existing conditions, etc
and as for all the media BS about canceled policys - its clear that most of those policys weren't what you wold call "health insurance" eg policys that pay 100 dollars a day if hospitalized...those are like matilda's dad the used car sales man policys
absolutely; pchem is way harder then organic
http://www.elementarymatters.com/2012/05/learning-math-facts-with-cuisenaire.html
I had these in the early 1960s (JFK presidency) at the http://www.lesleyellis.org/about/who-we-are/history which at the time was off concord street in Cambridge
in the 1980s, under R Reagan, the USofA supported one S Hussein in his war against Iraq, and in his use of chemical weapons.
So what the US govt won't do is pretty extreme
why bother to file a bug report for software that is still in pre alpha
What is the point ?
To take just one of many, many examples: a straightforward task should be pasting a bitmap into a document program like writer or word
This works in word, altho the large number of poorly documented options makes it difficult for the new user to understand; on the other hand, for almost every MS office question, there are one or two good websites, so 5 minutes on google usually produces an answer.
with writer, this just didn't work
why shoud i bother with a bug report on a program that isn't ready ?
Quote
'It seems to me that the ability to say "no" to profitable but peripheral business in order to strategically focus the company is a really important management task
unquote
no SH** Bosco; learning to focus on business with higher margin is something you should have engraved on your forehead on like, the first day of work.
Anyway, aside from the fanboys, everytime i try librre/open office, the don't work
I know, ymmv
About two months ago, I downloaded the latest open office clone and tried something real simple: paste a bitmap into a word document
this works sort of ok in MS office; doesn't work at all in OO
The whole thing is idiotic: the money is in corporate; if they want features they will go for MS suite, which OO will never touch; if they want cloud, google
If you want cheap, you can get last years MS suite off of ebay at very low cost
I just don't see why anyone bothers with OO
Much of Tesla's criticism of the Times was based on , supposedly, data that Tesla downloaded from the test vehicle.
Does this security flaw make it more likely that tesla, or a tesla employee, could have altered the data ?
Most of the stations - esp in S Brooklyn, outer Queens and The Bronx, serve mainly commuters and New Yorkers ( I mean seriously, how many tourists go up to see the hall of famous americans in The Bronx ? or the Bronx Zoo ? or the Brooklyn Museum ? (fabulous Egyptian collection btw)
Tourists need mainly manhattan, and the existing map does ok; the main problem is the multiplicity of trains on the tracks - local and express
If you are a serious tourist, get a Guide Michelin, or whatever the e-quivalent is; it will tell you what to do to get to the Brooklyn Museum, or the Morris Jumel Mansion, or Lydig ave, or...
Anyway, I assume that like me, many of you have been in London/Paris etc, and I seem to recall from my long ago student days that relying on the subway map often led to long, unexpected walks.
Linux as a serious OS has been around for what, 10 years ?
Yet almost no one uses it.
At some point, you have to say, the market has spoken.
For whatever reason, people don't like it.
I work with a set of modest geeks, and none of them (not one) uses linux for anything. They all have tried it.
SO, ymmv, but at some point you have to stop blaming the evil MS, and face up to the truth: people have had 10 years to try linux, and they have said NO
(my personal opinion is the silly idea that choice is good, which accounts for all the distros, is a major factor in the lack of linux uptake)
The story goes like this:
The founders wanted Dr Einsteins name, so several professors and big shots ($) wen to see albert, who was at Princeton
Founders: Dr Einstein, we would like to name our new medical school after you
AE: well, I'm not sure...I'm not a doctor
Founders: well, we could name it after pasteur
AE: what does Pasteur have to do with a jewish school (AECOM is legal subsidiary of Yeshiva University)
Founders: well, in taht case, how about W Harvey
AE: but he is british
Founders: well the, we will go with Dr Schmorekin
AE (looking puzzled), you know, I don't think I have ever heard of this doctor Schmorekin...are you sure people will know what your school is about ?
founders (triumphantly) : you know doctor einstien, with your name, no one will ever ask that...
AE, laughing, ok then , you have my blessing
during the mc carthy era, AECOM hired many leftists, and they also hired many woman, eg, as the story goes, Ora Rosen graduated 1st in her class at columbia medical school, and no one would hire her except AECOM
our species has been evolving for what - the last million or so years without a functional gene for synthesis of Vit C ?
if you now re introduce that gene, what will happen ?
perhaps we have evolved to deal wit low levels of vitamin c, and having high, continuous levels would now be toxic....aside from the fact that we don't really know how to do safe genetic engineering in humans yet (I assert this...google R Young white head)
When I was a graduate student in a molecular biology program in the late 80s or early 90s, i heard, in person, Linus talk
the professors at my institution were pretty sarcastic, but one thing linus said stuck in my brain:
I take 10 grams a day, because if you look at how much vitamin C is in the blood of our closest animal relatives, chimps and gorillas, a human would need to take 10 grams a day to get the same level in the blood...but don't buy it from the drugstore , it is very exspensive, i buy it in 10 pound drums from a chemical company in cleveland OH (or maybe Akron)
of course, humans and guinea pigs are very unsusal in that they require vitamin c in the diet; almost all other mammals can make their own.
mod up a lot
esp the last point - the idea of someone who doesn't use a computer telling people what email to use is bizarre
is a nominal 10 bucks a year
wow
for all the head ached, and very, very inferior GUI and user experinece of Gmail, not to mention the security issues, and the politics of having Gov't email running thru a service that looks at mail, they are saving 10 bucks a month
what is the psychology that leads people to dis word, a perfectly fine program ?
Sure, it has idiosyncrasys, but show me a program that doesn't
Sure, it has bugs and fails, but show me complex, or even simple, program that doesn't
I write 10-20 page documents with Auto table of contents, auto table of figures, lots of pasted tiffs, etc and a lot fo custom paragraph level formatting
Works for me, ymmv
(the biggest problem is the inability to group textbox and tiff without a frame)
Yet these same people assert that excel is "pro grade" wtf ?
havn't you guys heard of the London Whale ?
Han't you read of reinhardt and rogoff ?
of the Statistics profs who have for years been publishing papers showing that excel returns incorrect values for std statistical functions ?