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User: amorsen

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  1. Re:Sunk cost fallacy on European Agreement Sets Up Third Greek Bailout · · Score: 1

    So, at a time with a very fragile government and civil administration in general, risks of unrest and protests, you want to cut the military.

    In such a situation, is it entirely out of the question that the military might consider other options, perhaps like Egypt? It would not exactly be the first time in history.

  2. Sunk cost fallacy on European Agreement Sets Up Third Greek Bailout · · Score: 4, Insightful

    European leaders keep pretending that they are giving Greece new money, when they are merely shuffling old debts around.

    The money that was loaned to Greece has been lost. The whole crisis is about everyone involved being unwilling to accept this reality and thinking that the money will somehow magically come back once the Greeks have been punished sufficiently.

    It is the same theory behind debtor's prison. It should be abolished for the same reasons.

  3. Epicycles upon epicycles on Double-Dynamo Model Predicts 60% Fall In Solar Output In The 2030s · · Score: 2

    Until we have an actual theory about what is going on, this is just adding epicycles. And bad ones at that, since we do not have sufficient observations to even create decent epicycles

  4. Re:Are these relevant? on Samsung Releases First 2TB Consumer SSD For Laptops · · Score: 1

    Funny, the TrackPad I replaced in a friend's 2009 13 inch MacBook Pro was like 4 steps, if. Remove screws from bottom pan. Remove battery connector. Remove battery. Remove 4 screws holding Trackpad. Done.

    It all changed around 2012.

    My information came from the link I supplied: "The MacBook Pro 15" Retina Display Early 2013 packs the battery, keyboard, trackpad, and upper case into one assembly. If any of these components fail, the entire assembly must be replaced."

    Your guide is for the 13" model. I do not know whether it works for the 15" model, but I can assure you that I am not intending to find out.

    But yes, it can be done for one $80 in tools and materials at least on the 13" model, unfortunately in 47 (well 93) steps.

  5. Re:Are these relevant? on Samsung Releases First 2TB Consumer SSD For Laptops · · Score: 1

    Even the Trackpad is easily replaced.

    I give you the instructions for replacing the trackpad on my Macbook. It is an easy 44 steps. Well, 87, since you have to do it all in reverse to put it back together.

    Also, it's $450 just for the parts and tools. More if you don't like to buy refurbished.

  6. Re:Why not send out best tool which is people? on NASA To Waste $150 Million On SLS Engine That Will Be Used Once · · Score: 2

    It is great to have the rovers on Mars, but a team of say 5 astronauts in 2 weeks could have accomplished at least as much as all the rovers did.

    The rovers require large support teams on Earth. Is it really worth keeping personnel on for a decade to do what could be done in a few weeks?

    Robots may be the answer, but right now they really suck when they are out of range of immediate control.

  7. Re:Once Again on NASA To Waste $150 Million On SLS Engine That Will Be Used Once · · Score: 2

    It works just if you removed taxes on work and income and replaced them completely with taxes on property. It is logical that this will cause people to behave in ways that are suboptimal for society as a whole.

    Just be aware that income taxes ALSO cause people to behave in ways that are suboptimal for society as a whole. The proper solution is to try to spread the tax load over income/consumption/pollution/property/inheritance/... in such a way that overall harm is minimized. Most governments do so but obviously with very different emphasis on which tax they prefer.

    Moderate inflation tends to be correlated with decent economic growth. Printing money is a completely valid way to pay for a part of the government budget. Alas, a fairly small part in normal economic times.

  8. Re:Drone It on Test Pilot: the F-35 Can't Dogfight · · Score: 1

    The problem is that shoulder-launched AA cannot be negated that way. The A-10 used to be mostly immune to shoulder-launched missiles, they would have to be very lucky to take it down.

  9. Re:Drone It on Test Pilot: the F-35 Can't Dogfight · · Score: 1

    Lots of g's were useful back when missiles were severely g-limited on turns. You could simply turn away when the missile got close. Unsurprisingly, missile developers discovered this and made the missiles better at turning.

  10. Re:Drone It on Test Pilot: the F-35 Can't Dogfight · · Score: 1

    Yes, the main problem with the modern attack aircraft is that no one wants to buy a light bomber, even though that is what they need.

    The F-35 has lousy payload for a light bomber, especially when stealthy and supercruising (nothing mounted on the external hardpoints). The alternatives are about equally crappy, except for the F-22 which is completely hopeless. At least the F-22 has a role where it is supposedly good, when it isn't busy killing its pilot.

  11. Re:Drone It on Test Pilot: the F-35 Can't Dogfight · · Score: 2

    The problem with the A-10 is that AA missiles have improved a lot and are improving further. It does not seem viable to build a successor to the A-10 with even more armour.

  12. Re:Drone It on Test Pilot: the F-35 Can't Dogfight · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Drone pilots don't seem to have much of a conscience either. They are far removed from the action, the consequences, less involved.

    Drone pilots suffer at least as much from PTSD as regular pilots. However, their work environment is tailored to ensure that their kill performance is excellent. If a pilot who is in a plane does not take a shot, it seems to be considered more of a judgement call based on what they saw, whereas if a drone pilot fails to take a shot, all the video evidence is there to go through in the debriefing. Those who fail to perform or who want to leave the assignment are threatened with dishonourable discharge.

    Do not judge them as people without conscience. They are victims too.

  13. Re:Static on IT Pros Blast Google Over Android's Refusal To Play Nice With IPv6 · · Score: 1

    Static IP addresses contain whatever the operator sets. Automatically assigned IPv6 addresses used to be MAC based on Ethernet/Wifi, but few do that these days.

  14. Re:Static on IT Pros Blast Google Over Android's Refusal To Play Nice With IPv6 · · Score: 2

    This makes no sense. Routers do not care how addresses are assigned, they use neighbour discovery to find the hosts.

  15. Re:It's not just DHCPv6... on IT Pros Blast Google Over Android's Refusal To Play Nice With IPv6 · · Score: 1

    That is a vendor-specific bug unfortunately.

  16. Re:This policy is ridiculous on Facebook's Absurd Pseudonym Purgatory · · Score: 1

    In many places, using a forged document is a crime. In Denmark at least it has a maximum penalty of 2 years in prison. It is possible that the interaction with Facebook does not actually involve a legal agreement, and so the law would not apply, but I would hate to rely on that argument in court.

  17. Link summary wrong on Everyone Hates Harvard · · Score: 4, Insightful

    convincing banks to create securities of sub-prime mortgages he could bet against

    The article does not say that he did that. Instead, the article says that the banks bought insurance against mortgage defaults (credit default swaps), and that prices of such insurance was very low. John Paulson decided the price was too low compared to the risk, so he bought a lot of the same insurance. When the mortgages started defaulting and prices for insurance went up, he sold the insurance on to the banks at a profit.

    If there had been a hundred John Paulsons out there, credit default swaps would have gone up in price much earlier, forcing the mortgage lenders to rein-in their subprime lending, thereby either defusing the crisis entirely or at least making it much less bad. Alas, there was only one, and he was good at not getting the word out, so not many copycats. John Paulson did everyone a service and should be rewarded, not punished. The people who lend out money to people who had no chance of paying back should be punished, not rewarded.

    Anyway, I have not read other articles about him, so maybe he does deserve his apparently terrible reputation.

    I am somewhat surprised that it has fallen to me to defend a 1%'er. This is not exactly my usual modus operandi.

  18. Re:Cost effectiveness on Mercedes-Benz Copies Tesla, Plans To Offer Home Energy Storage · · Score: 2

    In many places electricity is taxed or high distribution tariffs apply. When you combine that with low feed-in tariffs, those with solar panels have a strong incentive to use their own power rather than export and import power.

    Thus, it is cost effective to store energy for the consumer, not for the power companies -- and sometimes it is cost effective for the consumer to store energy expensive high-demand power from the middle of the day and use it during the night when power is otherwise cheap. Some power companies are investing in batteries to do the exact opposite, of course.

    In the grand scheme of things there are larger fish to fry when it comes to tax and tariffs though, where the interests of society do not align with the incentives provided to individual people. E.g. it is rather stupid to tax labour, which is a clean and beneficial way to improve our society, instead of resource consumption which causes pollution and poverty.

  19. Re:I knew it on Huawei's LiteOS Internet of Things Operating System Is a Minuscule 10KB · · Score: 1

    Depends how you define modern windowing OS. As soon as you require modern text rendering, you are in many-MB territory, and just a 1080p framebuffer is fairly large.

  20. Re:Who needed it? on Critical Vulnerability In NetUSB Driver Exposes Millions of Routers To Hacking · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Seriously. NetUSB? On a router? WHY the devil would I want that?

    Printer sharing. A problem that was solved well in the 80's and since re-solved slightly worse every few years. It is difficult to imagine a worse way than NetUSB, but I am sure there are developers out there with a better imagination than mine.

  21. Re:Major changes in many countries on Genetically Engineered Yeast Makes It Possible To Brew Morphine · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There has been practically zero progress on handling the demand side. Doing so would require a radical rethink of how Western countries deal with drugs and drug addiction. This is not likely to happen in the next 20 years at least, and it is stupid to condemn other countries to 20 more years of violence by keeping our focus on limiting supply.

  22. Major changes in many countries on Genetically Engineered Yeast Makes It Possible To Brew Morphine · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If we eliminated the need to grow opium, a some countries would find their economies transformed. Imagine Afghanistan without opium financing various criminal factions. We just need to figure out how to make cocaine without coca, and Middle America would be changed too.

    Of course that relies on the secret getting out. Otherwise we are still stuck with the morass of violent crime.

  23. Re:Online voting is easy on Online Voting Should Be Verifiable -- But It's a Hard Problem · · Score: 0

    You want to give up a secret ballot? Well, next election, if you don't vote for what your employer or family member or local thug want, you get the consequences.

    That is exactly the tradeoff. If you do not like it, do not allow electronic voting.

  24. Re:Online voting is easy on Online Voting Should Be Verifiable -- But It's a Hard Problem · · Score: 1

    b) someone isn't forcing them

    Defending against this requires secret ballots. If you can verify how a person voted, then that person is at risk of coercion. Online voting cannot provide secret ballots. If you want secret ballots, do not use online voting.

    I thought I wrote that clearly enough in my first attempt, but apparently not :)

  25. Online voting is easy on Online Voting Should Be Verifiable -- But It's a Hard Problem · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We are really really good at handling online transactions of various kinds. Voting is easy. You just have to give up the secret ballot...

    Anonymous secure verifiable voting is a bad joke.