"400GB of flash would be bigger, heavier, and probably slower than 400GB of magnetic storage. It would also be less reliable. but even with price parity, why would you want flash with all its drawbacks?"
Given that a 32 GB SD flash card is likely to be available very shortly, that it only takes 13 of these cards to reach past 400GB, and that a pile 13 SD cards is still a tiny fraction of the size and weight of 3.5 inch disk drive, I think your size and weight assumption needs rethinking.
As to reliability, I have no idea what you are talking about. I can drop and SD card from shoulder height onto conrcete and it will almost certainly keep working. Hard disks rarely pass the same test. If you are talking about the write limit of flash memory. A simple comparison with a hard disk of today shows this misconception to be just that. Taking a the example of a flash drive of 200GB with a write speed of 40 Megabytes per second (similar to a modern hard disk) and doing some basic calculations shows that it could be written to continuously for just over 15 years before every block passed the 100 000 write mark. The equivalent of todays 200GB drive some 15 years ago was the 210MB disk. There are not many machines running today with 210MB hard drives, let alone dong the kind of work that requires continuous writing to the disk. And 100 000 writes is often considered a minimum. The secret is wear leveling algorithms.
So to sum up, given that you might be able to get decent performance in a lower-power, quieter, lighter, smaller, tougher device, with price parity, why would you not want to use the flash drive?
A 1 Gig flash card for my camera could hold about 600 images. Considering 100,000 writes is usually given as a minimum failure point that means the total number of images written can easily be in the billions. If I took 1 photo every second it would still take 31 years (!) to get to a billion. (31 years = 978 264 705 seconds, ask Google).
With the application of wear leveling algorithms even swap space applications are viable. My site http://www.mattscomputertrends.com/flashvsharddisk .html points out that a theoretical example of a flash drive of 200GB with a write speed of 40 Megabytes per second and doing some basic calculations shows that it could be written to continuously for just over 15 years before every block passed the 100 000 write mark. The equivalent of todays 200GB drive some 15 years ago was the 210MB disk. There are not many machines running today with 210MB hard drives, let alone dong the kind of work that requires continuous writing to the disk.
The write limits of flash are basically at a point where they are not worth worrying about.
A law was introduced requiring a person holding a light to walk 15 meters in front of a horseless cariage. This was said to warn pedestrians of the oncomming dangerous contraption. It was really about protecting the horse drawn cariage market beaucse this law destroyed all the advantages that the car introduced.
I did a small study that shows the rate of improvement in capacities is slowing down. My study was on the "sweet spot", the drive size with the most megs per dollar but the trend should be across the board.
It really seems like Hard Disk technology has hit a wall.
The gist of it is that right now your dollar buys about 130 times more hard disk space than flash memory. In almost every year, you can buy more space for your dollar than you could last year. This improvement for hard disks in the last two years was measured at 44% per annum. The annualised improvement for flash storage over the same period was measured at 118%. By simply extrapolating these figures into the future until the megs per dollar figure for flash beats that of hard disks gives the date of 2017 or in just 11 years time.
The rest of it covers why performace shouldnt be an issue is 11 years time.
Yes, I'm assuming that this technology is what will allow hard disks to continue their Moore's law like increases. I see this technology as continuing the trend not changing it.
It's great to get an independent review.
I'll get Sharon to add the requested missing bits.
Yes, they use anesthetic. You'd hope so cause they cut an access lid in the "skin" on the eye! She said she dont feel any pain during the surgery but you have discomfort aferwards. She was extremely light sensitive. Check back at the site in a week and I'll have uploaded what she has to say about the rest.
Thanks for your comments!
"This was a particularly noteworthy accomplishment, because it demonstrated the amount of computer bandwidth (1 gigabyte/second) needed by the Australia and California research groups to observe and grab a fast-moving sperm with virtually no detectible delay in image transmission between the two laboratories."
It seems even the people who did this have no idea of the difference between bandwidth and latency. The above quote is from the original press release.
When I first read the title I thought someone had their lasik done this way, mostly because my wife had her lasik surgery done in Australia (we live there). She wrote about the experience http://www.sharonslasiksurgery.com/ if you want a laypersons point of view.
Doing it remotely is not something I would volunteer for and I suppose that is exactly where this technology is heading.
The Australian government would do better to keep the wholesale part of the business and sell the retail part. Forcing Telstra to divide itself only internally will lead to a situation where they can sacrafice the retail sales but make a killing on the monopoly wholesale business. Screwing customers for all they can. Once the compay is in private hands there will be little the government can do about it.
I disagree with you on two points.
People who pay for Adwords primarily do so to get customers to come to their sites and buy products, they shouldn't care where the ads are displayed. Google have claimed that Asense advertisements have a higher click through rate compared with ads displayed next to the SERPS and many webmasters have said that the conversion rate from adsense ads is higher. If this is true then Adsense style advertising should be the prefered option.
"Crean describes the device as a chip located "way in the machine, right near the laser" that embeds the dots when the document "is about 20 billionths of a second" from printing.
"Standard mischief won't get you around it," Crean adds.".
Sounds like your classical security through obscurity bluster. It is probably not that hard to bypass at all using no more than a chewing gum wrapper and a paperclip. The best way to defeat this might not be legally but instead with some simple FAQ's on the internet describing how to disable the "feature".
"But if you were using VOIP as a transparent replacement to POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service) and were ordering a new car or dicussing your new pin number with the bank then things are quite different."
Even if bad people know I'm getting a new car or even know the PIN of my debit card, I'm still at low risk of a problem. Serious internet security problems have the symptoms that the attacker remains anonymous and often undetected until its too late and has virtually unlimited scale in implementing their crimes. Stealing individual debit cards has none of these features.
I'm not argueing against improved security for VOIP. I think it will come and be welcome. I'm just saying that its going to be a problem for the vendor more than it is for me.
Man in the middle.
on
VoIP Security
·
· Score: 5, Interesting
I have never worried about man in the middle attacks on the internet. To be successful, it requires very good access to my ISP or the backbone carrier's network which is hard to do. Even if they can get that access all they can do is listen to my calls, have a chat with me and the other person or maybe hang up the call. Any attacker listening to my calls is going to get very bored very quickly. If they do the later two, it could cause them to get caught because I'll complain about the problem.
The only security problem I see is if the attacker can learn information that lets him make calls billed to my account. This becomes the VOIP vendors problem anyway. When I notice something wrong with the bill I'll do a chargeback on my credit card for the bill and simply change VOIP providers. If this happens a lot, the VOIP vendor will do something about their security problem.
The tribune link looks broken so its hard to know how they have set this up but I will say this.
Modern air conditioners have energy efficiencies approaching 400%.
Normal Peltiers have efficiencies of less than 30%.
I've never seen one with efficiencies greater than 100%.
If being much more than 4 times the energy is less harmful to the environment then I don't understand what they are teaching in high school anymore.
Sure, I could stick a copyright notice on my work.
The problem is knowing how to word one in a way that says people can use it for non comercial purposes but not comercial purposses so that it will hold up in court.
After all, IANAL!
Slashdot Mirror
"400GB of flash would be bigger, heavier, and probably slower than 400GB of magnetic storage. It would also be less reliable. but even with price parity, why would you want flash with all its drawbacks?"
Given that a 32 GB SD flash card is likely to be available very shortly, that it only takes 13 of these cards to reach past 400GB, and that a pile 13 SD cards is still a tiny fraction of the size and weight of 3.5 inch disk drive, I think your size and weight assumption needs rethinking.
As to reliability, I have no idea what you are talking about. I can drop and SD card from shoulder height onto conrcete and it will almost certainly keep working. Hard disks rarely pass the same test. If you are talking about the write limit of flash memory. A simple comparison with a hard disk of today shows this misconception to be just that. Taking a the example of a flash drive of 200GB with a write speed of 40 Megabytes per second (similar to a modern hard disk) and doing some basic calculations shows that it could be written to continuously for just over 15 years before every block passed the 100 000 write mark. The equivalent of todays 200GB drive some 15 years ago was the 210MB disk. There are not many machines running today with 210MB hard drives, let alone dong the kind of work that requires continuous writing to the disk. And 100 000 writes is often considered a minimum. The secret is wear leveling algorithms.
So to sum up, given that you might be able to get decent performance in a lower-power, quieter, lighter, smaller, tougher device, with price parity, why would you not want to use the flash drive?
Actually, this is predicted this to happen in 11 years from now, not in 2006.
k .html
http://www.mattscomputertrends.com/flashvsharddis
They didn't just make up the 11 year figure either. The prediction is based on price trends from the last few years.
The article also explains why performance and maximum write issues will not be an problem by then.
I think you got it right.
k .html points out that a theoretical example of a flash drive of 200GB with a write speed of 40 Megabytes per second and doing some basic calculations shows that it could be written to continuously for just over 15 years before every block passed the 100 000 write mark. The equivalent of todays 200GB drive some 15 years ago was the 210MB disk. There are not many machines running today with 210MB hard drives, let alone dong the kind of work that requires continuous writing to the disk.
A 1 Gig flash card for my camera could hold about 600 images. Considering 100,000 writes is usually given as a minimum failure point that means the total number of images written can easily be in the billions. If I took 1 photo every second it would still take 31 years (!) to get to a billion. (31 years = 978 264 705 seconds, ask Google).
With the application of wear leveling algorithms even swap space applications are viable.
My site http://www.mattscomputertrends.com/flashvsharddis
The write limits of flash are basically at a point where they are not worth worrying about.
Dont laugh. This actually happened.
A law was introduced requiring a person holding a light to walk 15 meters in front of a horseless cariage. This was said to warn pedestrians of the oncomming dangerous contraption. It was really about protecting the horse drawn cariage market beaucse this law destroyed all the advantages that the car introduced.
Sorry, I couldn't find a reference.
Very perceptive.
l - the second chart is the one that applies here.
I did a small study that shows the rate of improvement in capacities is slowing down. My study was on the "sweet spot", the drive size with the most megs per dollar but the trend should be across the board.
It really seems like Hard Disk technology has hit a wall.
http://www.mattscomputertrends.com/harddrives.htm
Actually, I say they new hard disks will be obsolete in just 11 years.
k .html
Read about it here: http://www.mattscomputertrends.com/flashvsharddis
The gist of it is that right now your dollar buys about 130 times more hard disk space than flash memory. In almost every year, you can buy more space for your dollar than you could last year. This improvement for hard disks in the last two years was measured at 44% per annum. The annualised improvement for flash storage over the same period was measured at 118%. By simply extrapolating these figures into the future until the megs per dollar figure for flash beats that of hard disks gives the date of 2017 or in just 11 years time.
The rest of it covers why performace shouldnt be an issue is 11 years time.
Actually, you could make one continuous month long VOIP telephone call and not use more than 4 gig.
A video call is a lot harder to judge.
Yes, I'm assuming that this technology is what will allow hard disks to continue their Moore's law like increases. I see this technology as continuing the trend not changing it.
It is posible to make an educated guess on this.
The density of transistors has been doubling about every 18 months since 1997, in the storage industry, density has been doubling every 12 months.
So,
8/05 - 400 GB - which is close to the largest 3.5" drives you can get at the moment
8/06 - 800 GB
8/07 - 1600 GB
So you could, quite reasonably, estmate that 1 TB 3.5" drives will be around early 2007.
It's great to get an independent review.
I'll get Sharon to add the requested missing bits. Yes, they use anesthetic. You'd hope so cause they cut an access lid in the "skin" on the eye! She said she dont feel any pain during the surgery but you have discomfort aferwards. She was extremely light sensitive. Check back at the site in a week and I'll have uploaded what she has to say about the rest.
Thanks for your comments!
"This was a particularly noteworthy accomplishment, because it demonstrated the amount of computer bandwidth (1 gigabyte/second) needed by the Australia and California research groups to observe and grab a fast-moving sperm with virtually no detectible delay in image transmission between the two laboratories."
It seems even the people who did this have no idea of the difference between bandwidth and latency. The above quote is from the original press release.
When I first read the title I thought someone had their lasik done this way, mostly because my wife had her lasik surgery done in Australia (we live there). She wrote about the experience http://www.sharonslasiksurgery.com/ if you want a laypersons point of view.
Doing it remotely is not something I would volunteer for and I suppose that is exactly where this technology is heading.
The Australian government would do better to keep the wholesale part of the business and sell the retail part. Forcing Telstra to divide itself only internally will lead to a situation where they can sacrafice the retail sales but make a killing on the monopoly wholesale business. Screwing customers for all they can. Once the compay is in private hands there will be little the government can do about it.
"Of course, now if you still doubt, you're welcome to count all 11.5bn results and make sure none of them are dupes :-)"
Thats easy to do, just submit all 11.5bn pages as stories on slashdot and the dups will automatically appear on the front page!
I disagree with you on two points.
2 156431
Google: 35%
People who pay for Adwords primarily do so to get customers to come to their sites and buy products, they shouldn't care where the ads are displayed. Google have claimed that Asense advertisements have a higher click through rate compared with ads displayed next to the SERPS and many webmasters have said that the conversion rate from adsense ads is higher. If this is true then Adsense style advertising should be the prefered option.
As to Yahoos "way inferior" popularity, plenty of people disagree: http://searchenginewatch.com/reports/article.php/
Yahoo: 32%
Note, these are US market figures.
My real hope here is that increased competition leads to a higher pecentage of the click fee going to the publisher instead of Google or Yahoo.
Err no, they ask for "you to print and send us test sheets from your color laser printer and/or a color laser printer at your local print shop."
Not to figure out how to disable it.
"Crean describes the device as a chip located "way in the machine, right near the laser" that embeds the dots when the document "is about 20 billionths of a second" from printing.
.
"Standard mischief won't get you around it," Crean adds."
Sounds like your classical security through obscurity bluster. It is probably not that hard to bypass at all using no more than a chewing gum wrapper and a paperclip. The best way to defeat this might not be legally but instead with some simple FAQ's on the internet describing how to disable the "feature".
Can someone work out how to do this please.
I still think this is a scam by evil foreigners to rip off unsuspecting American tourists.
Warning: Dont buy this. The price is does not include a landing. You just fly around the moon and come back. It is clearly a rip off.
Just what I was looking for. Thanks.
"But if you were using VOIP as a transparent replacement to POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service) and were ordering a new car or dicussing your new pin number with the bank then things are quite different."
Even if bad people know I'm getting a new car or even know the PIN of my debit card, I'm still at low risk of a problem. Serious internet security problems have the symptoms that the attacker remains anonymous and often undetected until its too late and has virtually unlimited scale in implementing their crimes. Stealing individual debit cards has none of these features.
I'm not argueing against improved security for VOIP. I think it will come and be welcome. I'm just saying that its going to be a problem for the vendor more than it is for me.
I have never worried about man in the middle attacks on the internet. To be successful, it requires very good access to my ISP or the backbone carrier's network which is hard to do. Even if they can get that access all they can do is listen to my calls, have a chat with me and the other person or maybe hang up the call. Any attacker listening to my calls is going to get very bored very quickly. If they do the later two, it could cause them to get caught because I'll complain about the problem.
The only security problem I see is if the attacker can learn information that lets him make calls billed to my account. This becomes the VOIP vendors problem anyway. When I notice something wrong with the bill I'll do a chargeback on my credit card for the bill and simply change VOIP providers. If this happens a lot, the VOIP vendor will do something about their security problem.
Or am I missing something?
How long till the get Ethernet working?
As soon as they can get the Ethernet working I can have the low cost, small form factor webserver I have been looking for.
I could have made it more clear but your understanding and explanation are correct.
It is entirely possible to move 4 watts of heat energy out of the car with only 1 watt of electricity energy.
The tribune link looks broken so its hard to know how they have set this up but I will say this.
Modern air conditioners have energy efficiencies approaching 400%.
Normal Peltiers have efficiencies of less than 30%.
I've never seen one with efficiencies greater than 100%.
If being much more than 4 times the energy is less harmful to the environment then I don't understand what they are teaching in high school anymore.
Sure, I could stick a copyright notice on my work.
The problem is knowing how to word one in a way that says people can use it for non comercial purposes but not comercial purposses so that it will hold up in court.
After all, IANAL!