"Professor Paul Mirecki, chairman of religious studies"
This is like the chairman of the math department making fun of people for studying the work of Gauss, Galois, Ramanujan, Hilbert, etc.
Having been a college student and teacher, I have a hard time beliving that anyone who feels like mocking people that are passionate about his subject is very effective as a professor. I don't trust his apology, either.
"The worst thing I'd be doing is breaking a civil contract "
Which happens to be the civil contract that gives you your car. Which happens not to be yours anymore if you break the contract.
"Unless it phones home then I don't really see what they can do about it."
If you miss your payment, I'm sure the leinholder can still send the "repo-man" around as before. And if you haven't missed a payment, you probably won't feel a need to get rid of the box.
For example: Essex County, New Jersey had an open house at the Turtle Back Zoo earlier this year. I went, with my family, because admission to the zoo was free that day, and it is close to my house. When I got there I saw dozens of booths promoting county services, everything from waste disposal to social services. (Practically) all of the giveaways (sport bottles, refrigerator magnets, pamphlets, bags, pencils, etc) had the name of the Essex County Executive (near as I can tell, kind of like County President) on them. None of these giveaways had the useful names on them, like the name of the person that would actually be taking care of your waste disposal or social services problem.
In summary, it was a direct campaign for the Executive, and for more government services, funded by my taxes.
...when there are multiple corporations competing for business in the same market.
Political revolutions (and elections) are similar. During the revolution (and campaigning), any faction trying to gain market share does lots of things to convince people they're the "good guys." After the revolution (or election), the new holders of power stop trying to please, unless they're convinced that they could lose their position if people aren't satisfied.
I don't fully agree myself in this post, but I thought this observation should be mentioned.
"I did not believe, nor did anyone that I personally know admit to believing there were any real weapons in Iraq"
If you live in the United States, I recommend getting to know your Representative and Senator. Not only does it make for better government when we know those people, but then you would likely know people that admitted to that belief. (Nearly all of them admitted, tacitly, if not overtly, to that belief.)
Note to Flamers: This post in no way states, nor implies anything about my own beliefs (other than my beliefs about Congresspersons' beliefs) or preferences regarding the whole Iraq, WMD, Bush thing.
And here I was thinking that asphalt was the most recycled stuff in the country. I'm in the United States. Are we in the same country? Are you thinking percentage recycled, or mass recycled?
"Over 70 million metric tons of asphalt paving material is recycled each year. Today, asphalt pavement is America's most recycled material." from http://www.hotmix.org/history.php
I think I need you to explain which smoking bans are property rights violations. If necessary, feel free to compare to health inspections in restaurants.
OK, we've got this far. My post did say that it assumed that the story was true, which I had to state because it is a big assumption.
Now, if you could find VERIFIABLE account of some person or organization that has/had a 100% track record with objectively verifiable predictions, what would you think?
Would you tend to believe that source if they told you how they did it?
Your first chunk mostly sounds to me like a recap of most of the post you were replying to, so I'll leave it.
For the second part: I do statistics for a living (actuarial work). Please believe me when I tell you that I'm not misunderstanding the application of statistics, nor am I misapplying.
Your post suggests that you have read my Moses post below. Do you understand the statistical difference between Moses' uninterrupted string of correct predictions and your example of selecting 100 "good" results from a random sample?
Compare to coins: 1- You're given a coin. You flip it 50 times. It's Heads every time. Do you think it's a fair coin? I would expect Heads if I flip it again. 2- You're given 100 coins. You flip them each once. If 50 of them land Heads, do you expect those same coins to land heads again? If all the coins were identical, I would expect only half of any flips of them to be Heads. Do you understand the probability of any one of those 100 coins landing Heads the first 50 times?
You suggested (I understand that it's just random) a probability of.001 of getting lucky and predicting a terror attack. So, if one person could predict, suppose, 8 things that difficult, with no mistakes, would you tend to believe that person's 9th prediction?
For comparison: The probability of a fair coin getting 50 Heads in a row is approximately 9e-16 The probability of getting 8 predictions as above is 1e-24 (Exercise: If 7 billion people attempted to make 8 such predictions, how many people would you expect to get all 8 correct.)
Finally, supposing that someone was always right with predictions like this. If he appeared to be honest in other things, I would accept his explanation for how he did it, until proven wrong.
Once we can agree on what is significant, then we can discuss whether a given person fits.
I'm trying to figure out what you mean by statistically significant.
Assume, for a moment, that the story of Moses and Pharaoh is true.
Suppose that Moses really did predict (close enough to have the appearance of causing) the beginning and end of ten plagues, none of which affected the Israelites (they had to do something about it for #10).
Even if Moses had been given a list of the plagues, and the times they would start and stop, it would still be a 1 in 10! chance of getting the order right.
Again, supposing the story were true, would you accept that as statistically significant?
Slashdot Mirror
I can understand why the humor of the FSM is given so much attention.
On the other hand, I am astounded by how many people seem to think that it has merit as an argument.
"Professor Paul Mirecki, chairman of religious studies"
This is like the chairman of the math department making fun of people for studying the work of Gauss, Galois, Ramanujan, Hilbert, etc.
Having been a college student and teacher, I have a hard time beliving that anyone who feels like mocking people that are passionate about his subject is very effective as a professor. I don't trust his apology, either.
"The worst thing I'd be doing is breaking a civil contract "
Which happens to be the civil contract that gives you your car.
Which happens not to be yours anymore if you break the contract.
"Unless it phones home then I don't really see what they can do about it."
If you miss your payment, I'm sure the leinholder can still send the "repo-man" around as before. And if you haven't missed a payment, you probably won't feel a need to get rid of the box.
A lot of politicians use tax money to campaign.
For example:
Essex County, New Jersey had an open house at the Turtle Back Zoo earlier this year. I went, with my family, because admission to the zoo was free that day, and it is close to my house. When I got there I saw dozens of booths promoting county services, everything from waste disposal to social services. (Practically) all of the giveaways (sport bottles, refrigerator magnets, pamphlets, bags, pencils, etc) had the name of the Essex County Executive (near as I can tell, kind of like County President) on them. None of these giveaways had the useful names on them, like the name of the person that would actually be taking care of your waste disposal or social services problem.
In summary, it was a direct campaign for the Executive, and for more government services, funded by my taxes.
Would you please clarify your post?
You posted in response to a clear question by Descalso, and I can't see any answer to that question in your post.
...when there are multiple corporations competing for business in the same market.
Political revolutions (and elections) are similar. During the revolution (and campaigning), any faction trying to gain market share does lots of things to convince people they're the "good guys." After the revolution (or election), the new holders of power stop trying to please, unless they're convinced that they could lose their position if people aren't satisfied.
I don't fully agree myself in this post, but I thought this observation should be mentioned.
Why can't he do both, if he gets the order right.
"I did not believe, nor did anyone that I personally know admit to believing there were any real weapons in Iraq"
If you live in the United States, I recommend getting to know your Representative and Senator. Not only does it make for better government when we know those people, but then you would likely know people that admitted to that belief.
(Nearly all of them admitted, tacitly, if not overtly, to that belief.)
Note to Flamers: This post in no way states, nor implies anything about my own beliefs (other than my beliefs about Congresspersons' beliefs) or preferences regarding the whole Iraq, WMD, Bush thing.
You haven't seen pick-up truck flame wars?
IMO, using the Stellar Converter to make a new asteroid belt is more fun.
But what about those of us that don't have any skill. Think of aimbots as a kind of skill welfare program.
I'm one of those that has neither skill nor aimbot. Pity me.
For the last 70 years the world land speed records have been set in Utah and Nevada.
Which speed records do you mean?
My expectations won.
(Though I do like Man of La Mancha and The Hudsucker Proxy.)
There was a Papelucho movie???
I have all 12 books, but never heard of a movie.
I started out working for less than minimum wage (farm work).
I am not in poverty.
QED
You didn't miss it. It was in both Esperanto and Yapese.
I had to get someone to translate it for me.
And here I was thinking that asphalt was the most recycled stuff in the country.
I'm in the United States.
Are we in the same country?
Are you thinking percentage recycled, or mass recycled?
"Over 70 million metric tons of asphalt paving material is recycled each year. Today, asphalt pavement is America's most recycled material." from http://www.hotmix.org/history.php
"Many inner-city minorities are actually doing the logical thing by dropping out of school and selling drugs"
Why do you say that?
You should know that selling drugs usually makes LESS than minimum wage. (for the front line seller, anyway)
Yes, but do you really think that Slashdot is the best place to find psychologists?
http://sc2.sourceforge.net/
In case anyone wants to remember/learn about Orz.
I think I need you to explain which smoking bans are property rights violations. If necessary, feel free to compare to health inspections in restaurants.
So, now I'm curious.
If you think that "All six of the Star Wars films are complete garbage," what movies do you think are good?
I ask this fully expecting you to name some movies that are garbage from my point of view, but hoping you won't.
If they can find them.
The premise was that you didn't even know who they were in the first place.
(Not that I think that defense would work.)
OK, we've got this far.
My post did say that it assumed that the story was true, which I had to state because it is a big assumption.
Now, if you could find VERIFIABLE account of some person or organization that has/had a 100% track record with objectively verifiable predictions, what would you think?
Would you tend to believe that source if they told you how they did it?
Your first chunk mostly sounds to me like a recap of most of the post you were replying to, so I'll leave it.
.001 of getting lucky and predicting a terror attack. So, if one person could predict, suppose, 8 things that difficult, with no mistakes, would you tend to believe that person's 9th prediction?
For the second part:
I do statistics for a living (actuarial work). Please believe me when I tell you that I'm not misunderstanding the application of statistics, nor am I misapplying.
Your post suggests that you have read my Moses post below. Do you understand the statistical difference between Moses' uninterrupted string of correct predictions and your example of selecting 100 "good" results from a random sample?
Compare to coins:
1- You're given a coin. You flip it 50 times. It's Heads every time. Do you think it's a fair coin? I would expect Heads if I flip it again.
2- You're given 100 coins. You flip them each once. If 50 of them land Heads, do you expect those same coins to land heads again? If all the coins were identical, I would expect only half of any flips of them to be Heads. Do you understand the probability of any one of those 100 coins landing Heads the first 50 times?
You suggested (I understand that it's just random) a probability of
For comparison:
The probability of a fair coin getting 50 Heads in a row is approximately 9e-16
The probability of getting 8 predictions as above is 1e-24
(Exercise: If 7 billion people attempted to make 8 such predictions, how many people would you expect to get all 8 correct.)
Finally, supposing that someone was always right with predictions like this. If he appeared to be honest in other things, I would accept his explanation for how he did it, until proven wrong.
Once we can agree on what is significant, then we can discuss whether a given person fits.
I'm trying to figure out what you mean by statistically significant.
Assume, for a moment, that the story of Moses and Pharaoh is true.
Suppose that Moses really did predict (close enough to have the appearance of causing) the beginning and end of ten plagues, none of which affected the Israelites (they had to do something about it for #10).
Even if Moses had been given a list of the plagues, and the times they would start and stop, it would still be a 1 in 10! chance of getting the order right.
Again, supposing the story were true, would you accept that as statistically significant?
FYI: 10! = 3,628,800