Ever watched a bunch of monkeys? The guys fight, and the winner gets the girl.
That's a nice theory.
However, as any evolutionary biologist would tell you, the real truth is more complex.
In real life, the "winner" turns out to have one of the successful reproductive strategies, but the other major ones are the "dad" and the "lonely outsider/milkman" strategy.
A lot of birds that we think of as monogamous, for example, turn out on detailed genetic study not to be. The same for chimps, gorillas, etc.
So, if you die in the fight, or get wounded, you may have lost your reproductive chances. Girls like the losers too - in fact, they do pretty darned well if one examines it scientifically.
According to my Seattle PI version of this story, Jordan Robertson wrote the story about techie fight clubs. It could be an assumed name, but you could always Google for his home address.
ah, so it was in regards to the parent of my reply.
However, the original parent at least attempted to predict console percentages for EU, US, and Japan separately, and didn't treat US predictions as if they applied to worldwide sales. As the originator of the discussion, he had a fairly insightful post that was a lot closer than much of the hype I've been seeing before E3.
A few comments have been made that Japanese gamers are far more likely to buy expensive game consoles than might be true in the US/EU - I'm not sure if that is true, but if so, it could be either due to a desire to be able to play not just current ship date games, but also projected future post-console-release games, and thus the strike price of the console at retail may not be as important as the game, music, and movie capabilities from a Japanese console consumer viewpoint.
You think that Microsoft chose how many 360s to manufacture for the launch and that once that number was reached, factory floors went quiet? Console shortages are caused by the manufacturer not being able to get them out the door fast enough, not manufacturers trying to hedge their bets and only producing a limited number.
No, I think they have a parts shortage, as has been extensively covered in the print edition of the Wall Street Journal.
You really think Nintendo is going to lose Europe that badly, when last time they beat the 360?
That's strange, if you'll look at my parent post, you'll see I show Nintendo's Wii beating the 360 more than in the US.
These are initial hype purchase projections - final results will probably end up with major Wii dominance. But a good ad campaign can stave off the utter rout a bit.
One: It downloads real real slow - as if it's been slashdotted - compared to the prior version. And that's with Firefox. Heck, even the Washington Post or New York Times renders faster.
Two: It looks like someone ripped off various biochem news websites. Nothing wrong with that, but if this is a "new" creation, I'll eat my shorts.
Three: There is no three, but I hate giving two problems when I can overload my counter and give three.
good point, but then, remember this is Japan, so I doubt there are quite so many waiting with baited breath for Halo 3, and from what I've seen, the list looks pretty close to what I'd expect if people have already made a mental shift towards the Wii, with some Japanese interest in the local Sony PS3.
In the article, notice how far down Halo 3 is rated for Anticipated Games - it's number 10 out of 10.
This bodes not well, since most of the games listed are Wii or cross-platform, meaning Nintend can pick up most of those players, or Sony, but the xBox will only sell to hentai fanboys looking for certain dimensional aspects of mammary gland physics (or lack thereof).
If you look at all the cost factors, it becomes fairly obvious the main thing driving up the PS3 console price is one thing - the Blu-Ray drive.
Sadly, since Sony is trying to capture the market, they've priced themselves out of market winner for the console, which will result in lower Blu-Ray sales at the $600 PS3 pricing.
Very short-sighted. They forget that Beta and VHS was won not by technical wonder, but by the fact shift workers like me could go on shift and record the "normal" TV they would have watched if they didn't go to work at 6 pm and come home at 2 am. It allowed us to time shift our TV viewing (which before was virtually nil, as we didn't watch soaps or local news) so that we could appear normal at family gatherings.
I bought one of the first RCA VCRs. I remember all my tech friends telling me how wonderful Betamax was and how silly I was in buying VHS, but all I cared about was getting some sleep and not feeling like a dunce at parties. I was 19, so that was way more important.
So final console sales in Japan (barring handhelds) may be for "first console sales" (aka - the first "next gen" console people buy):
PS3: 50% Wii: 40% 360: 10%
Granted - the 360 sales maybe be high. Not trying to be mean here - just going by history.
Hmmm, I think you're overestimating the PS3 portion in Japan, my guess (like yours, which you admitted was also pulled out of your ass) would be more like:
PS3: 35% Wii: 55% 360: 10%
Then the US and Europe may split into this for initial console sales:
You're confused about both the NSA and the Constitution. The NSA's primary purpose is signals intelligence of foreign governments and their agents (some of whom may be US citizens). Foreign governments aren't entitled to the rights of a US citizen. Spying on foreign spies is fine too, even if they are US citizens.
Thanks, that's the Administration's interpretation of the Constitution, but is not the sole interpretation, and you're confusing the actions of an agency (NSA) that may be extralegal (translation: illegal under the Constitution, even if passed by Congress) in regards to US citizens and the actions of foreign governments. Noone has seriously suggested that al-Qaeda is an arm of a foreign government, in fact most CIA actions and their detention in GITMO are presupposed on their not being agents of a foreign government.
You're entitled to disagree, but Memorial Day is there so you can remember what people like me put our lives on the line - your ability to say such things, even if we disagree with them.
And people seem to forget that carbon nanotubes were fiction less than two decades ago.
Now, if you said "not within a decade", that I might believe.
But in my world (biochem, nanotech, biotech, pharmacom, medical genetics, proteomics) we totally change the world every five to ten years, finding our former understanding isn't a fraction of the actual reality, so I wouldn't be that pessimistic.
I'd be far more concerned with the terrorist threat potential to space elevators than to the component aspect.
I for one expect the future of MMOG to be one where players choose:
1. the size of their world - do you really want to play with 500,000 people or wouldn't 5,000 work better?
2. the level they play at - why not have a test game where it figures out your actual play level, and then suggests you choose that World - for example, if you test out at play level 4, you could choose any level, but it would suggest you choose level 1-5. Then for each level (World), you only see people at that level. Once you have maxed out in your World, you would be allowed to either: start at the beginning in a level 2 or more higher, or start at half or less of your current level in a level beyond yours, minus all items.
3. the age mix they play at - you could choose age ranges like 10-14, 13-17, 16-24, 19-29, 25-40, 30-50, 40-60, 55-80, 10-18, 19-99, etc. Note I specifically made them overlap.
4. the backround rules they play with - for example, maybe no sockets, no team treachery (you can't attack team members without warning them 10 seconds before you attack), bosses stay dead, bosses don't regenerate, and so on.
5. latency level - do you want a more strategic slow game or a fast reflex game?
But now we just let them spy on us, arrest us without warrants, ship American citizens off to foreign prisons to be tortured for years without any formal charges, and turn the Constitution into confetti for their personal profit.
That said, the NSA has never been that legal, from a constitutional view, but noone is willing to challenge their existance, most likely due to fear or threat of tag teams of government lawsuits, IRS audits, and other tricks used by those who wish America to live in Fear.
Again, if you can physically express it as a physical circuit, then it's patentable. The actual algorithm shouldn't be patentable, but should be covered under copyright or trade secret.
Regardless, if it's made a public patent, this obviates the problem, as does the reversal of the existance of software "patents".
Personally, I agree, 17 years is too long, but given the initial delay, is not as bad. But the current patent plus renewal method or patent plus minor tweak method results in patents not being usable by the public for sometimes more than half a century, which is not good.
I would expect a public patent should not have to be enforced, by their revenue nature.
Such delays were common at the time the patent system was established in the US Constitution, and even more limited patents existed in Switzerland, where Albert Einstein was a patent clerk.
One's greed at having a longer license time does not equal the societal good of public patents and short patent life. It was a limited time then, and it should be a limited time now.
Copyright, for example, used to be for only 12 years, was extended, and then extended, and then extended. Now, it's effectively 70 years after the copyright registrant dies. Which makes a farce of the intention of copyright, just as our current patent regime makes a farce of the intention of patents.
WWJD? My guess is he'd overturn the moneylenders table.
As Yahoo-eBay-Google and Microsoft-Dell battle for dominance, like dinosaurs unwilling to look up and see the open source asteroid about to hit the Yucatan peninsula.
Hyphens are good - just look at what a wonderful company Exxon-Mobil or Texaco-whatever is now.
1. Yes, the patent system is severely broken, and it's flawed. Yes, the European version is better. Yes, patents (my grandfather had a few) should only last 17 years period, as the intention is to force publication of such information/concepts/executions so that everyone may gain from such public knowledge through a time-limited license, and the extensions we currently grant work against such concepts. But, let's face it, unless you have a few billion dollars, they will ignore what we say on this matter, for they are corrupt.
2. We need more public patents - and we need places like universities and colleges and publicly-funded institutions to file them, or at least on renewal reclassify the patent as a public patent but administer it, with a portion of revenues being used to reform the patent system.
3. Software is not, nor should it every be, patentable. Copyright? Sure. I published freeware and shareware at the dawn of public computing (70s/80s). But not patentable, nor should business processes nor conceptual methods be patentable. It is just plain wrong.
I don't expect you to agree with me, but I think this latest USPTO ruling brings up the issue on the public JPEG usage. JPEG is from the publicly-funded Jet Propulsion Laboratories - which we pay for with taxes. Open source depends on public patents, or at worst private patents signed over to OSF and other groups to administer.
The reality, based on reports read as a former investor in Microsoft, is that Office and related products are the bulk of Microsoft's cash flow, after earnings from the vast cash horde and holdings in other companies.
Right now China pirates 98 percent of all Microsoft software - including 80 percent of all such software in Chinese government and military offices. As do Cambodia, Thailand, and other countries.
Microsoft would make more money going after those pirates, instead of trying to force new Office formats on us, but we're easier marks.
Now, having said all that, I'm buying about 400 shares of Microsoft on June 10th or thereabouts.
You can fight the 5,000,000 kilo gorilla, or you can ask it for a ride.
Game Cube didn't have enough games. For the Wii, we're begging publishers to develop for it.
Well, sure. But even before E3, Nintendo had announced, with at least game titles and cover art, more than 100 games for the Nintendo Revolution (now Wii). And the thing that struck me about them was they broke down the wall between Japan and the US in terms of game types. No longer did they restrict the games to Japan-only versions, they actively sought to port a more diverse set.
I see. So this thing [internet2.edu] is just a figment of my imagination? If you're going to criticize someone for being a dumbass, you'd better be careful not to be a dumbass yourself.
Ssshh. Don't tell them we have pipeline that makes theirs look like a putt-putt car next to our rocket ship... they don't realize even South Korea has broadband 20 times faster than US cable modems throughout the entire country, or that universities use Gigapop switches just for internal same-room wiring.
If they found out about it, we'd have to let them buy wood on it, and right now we're busy using it to decode genomes, find protein structures, do medical surgery remotely, and find drug targets for malaria.
However, none of this will keep me from buying the Pokemon Pikachu Lightning Yellow Wii with Bulbasoar Blue-green Nintendo DS combo that will be bundled around Christmas...
Slashdot Mirror
Ever watched a bunch of monkeys? The guys fight, and the winner gets the girl.
That's a nice theory.
However, as any evolutionary biologist would tell you, the real truth is more complex.
In real life, the "winner" turns out to have one of the successful reproductive strategies, but the other major ones are the "dad" and the "lonely outsider/milkman" strategy.
A lot of birds that we think of as monogamous, for example, turn out on detailed genetic study not to be. The same for chimps, gorillas, etc.
So, if you die in the fight, or get wounded, you may have lost your reproductive chances. Girls like the losers too - in fact, they do pretty darned well if one examines it scientifically.
According to my Seattle PI version of this story, Jordan Robertson wrote the story about techie fight clubs. It could be an assumed name, but you could always Google for his home address.
ah, so it was in regards to the parent of my reply.
However, the original parent at least attempted to predict console percentages for EU, US, and Japan separately, and didn't treat US predictions as if they applied to worldwide sales. As the originator of the discussion, he had a fairly insightful post that was a lot closer than much of the hype I've been seeing before E3.
A few comments have been made that Japanese gamers are far more likely to buy expensive game consoles than might be true in the US/EU - I'm not sure if that is true, but if so, it could be either due to a desire to be able to play not just current ship date games, but also projected future post-console-release games, and thus the strike price of the console at retail may not be as important as the game, music, and movie capabilities from a Japanese console consumer viewpoint.
But in China, there are many thousands of FRP and RPG games, and WoW is just one of them.
...
Let's realize the whole world is pretty darned big. We have gamers in South Korea dying as we speak from playing too long
You think that Microsoft chose how many 360s to manufacture for the launch and that once that number was reached, factory floors went quiet? Console shortages are caused by the manufacturer not being able to get them out the door fast enough, not manufacturers trying to hedge their bets and only producing a limited number.
No, I think they have a parts shortage, as has been extensively covered in the print edition of the Wall Street Journal.
Why? What have you heard?
You really think Nintendo is going to lose Europe that badly, when last time they beat the 360?
That's strange, if you'll look at my parent post, you'll see I show Nintendo's Wii beating the 360 more than in the US.
These are initial hype purchase projections - final results will probably end up with major Wii dominance. But a good ad campaign can stave off the utter rout a bit.
One: It downloads real real slow - as if it's been slashdotted - compared to the prior version. And that's with Firefox. Heck, even the Washington Post or New York Times renders faster.
Two: It looks like someone ripped off various biochem news websites. Nothing wrong with that, but if this is a "new" creation, I'll eat my shorts.
Three: There is no three, but I hate giving two problems when I can overload my counter and give three.
good point, but then, remember this is Japan, so I doubt there are quite so many waiting with baited breath for Halo 3, and from what I've seen, the list looks pretty close to what I'd expect if people have already made a mental shift towards the Wii, with some Japanese interest in the local Sony PS3.
In the article, notice how far down Halo 3 is rated for Anticipated Games - it's number 10 out of 10.
This bodes not well, since most of the games listed are Wii or cross-platform, meaning Nintend can pick up most of those players, or Sony, but the xBox will only sell to hentai fanboys looking for certain dimensional aspects of mammary gland physics (or lack thereof).
If you look at all the cost factors, it becomes fairly obvious the main thing driving up the PS3 console price is one thing - the Blu-Ray drive.
Sadly, since Sony is trying to capture the market, they've priced themselves out of market winner for the console, which will result in lower Blu-Ray sales at the $600 PS3 pricing.
Very short-sighted. They forget that Beta and VHS was won not by technical wonder, but by the fact shift workers like me could go on shift and record the "normal" TV they would have watched if they didn't go to work at 6 pm and come home at 2 am. It allowed us to time shift our TV viewing (which before was virtually nil, as we didn't watch soaps or local news) so that we could appear normal at family gatherings.
I bought one of the first RCA VCRs. I remember all my tech friends telling me how wonderful Betamax was and how silly I was in buying VHS, but all I cared about was getting some sleep and not feeling like a dunce at parties. I was 19, so that was way more important.
So final console sales in Japan (barring handhelds) may be for "first console sales" (aka - the first "next gen" console people buy):
PS3: 50%
Wii: 40%
360: 10%
Granted - the 360 sales maybe be high. Not trying to be mean here - just going by history.
Hmmm, I think you're overestimating the PS3 portion in Japan, my guess (like yours, which you admitted was also pulled out of your ass) would be more like:
PS3: 35%
Wii: 55%
360: 10%
Then the US and Europe may split into this for initial console sales:
360: 40%
PS3: 30%
Wii: 30%
This I think will be:
US:
360: 40% (cheaper)
PS3: 20% (not cheaper)
Wii: 40%
Europe:
360: 30%
PS3: 20%
Wii: 50%
You're confused about both the NSA and the Constitution. The NSA's primary purpose is signals intelligence of foreign governments and their agents (some of whom may be US citizens). Foreign governments aren't entitled to the rights of a US citizen. Spying on foreign spies is fine too, even if they are US citizens.
Thanks, that's the Administration's interpretation of the Constitution, but is not the sole interpretation, and you're confusing the actions of an agency (NSA) that may be extralegal (translation: illegal under the Constitution, even if passed by Congress) in regards to US citizens and the actions of foreign governments. Noone has seriously suggested that al-Qaeda is an arm of a foreign government, in fact most CIA actions and their detention in GITMO are presupposed on their not being agents of a foreign government.
You're entitled to disagree, but Memorial Day is there so you can remember what people like me put our lives on the line - your ability to say such things, even if we disagree with them.
And people seem to forget that carbon nanotubes were fiction less than two decades ago.
Now, if you said "not within a decade", that I might believe.
But in my world (biochem, nanotech, biotech, pharmacom, medical genetics, proteomics) we totally change the world every five to ten years, finding our former understanding isn't a fraction of the actual reality, so I wouldn't be that pessimistic.
I'd be far more concerned with the terrorist threat potential to space elevators than to the component aspect.
I for one expect the future of MMOG to be one where players choose:
1. the size of their world - do you really want to play with 500,000 people or wouldn't 5,000 work better?
2. the level they play at - why not have a test game where it figures out your actual play level, and then suggests you choose that World - for example, if you test out at play level 4, you could choose any level, but it would suggest you choose level 1-5. Then for each level (World), you only see people at that level. Once you have maxed out in your World, you would be allowed to either: start at the beginning in a level 2 or more higher, or start at half or less of your current level in a level beyond yours, minus all items.
3. the age mix they play at - you could choose age ranges like 10-14, 13-17, 16-24, 19-29, 25-40, 30-50, 40-60, 55-80, 10-18, 19-99, etc. Note I specifically made them overlap.
4. the backround rules they play with - for example, maybe no sockets, no team treachery (you can't attack team members without warning them 10 seconds before you attack), bosses stay dead, bosses don't regenerate, and so on.
5. latency level - do you want a more strategic slow game or a fast reflex game?
Just a few ideas from a former game designer.
But now we just let them spy on us, arrest us without warrants, ship American citizens off to foreign prisons to be tortured for years without any formal charges, and turn the Constitution into confetti for their personal profit.
That said, the NSA has never been that legal, from a constitutional view, but noone is willing to challenge their existance, most likely due to fear or threat of tag teams of government lawsuits, IRS audits, and other tricks used by those who wish America to live in Fear.
Again, if you can physically express it as a physical circuit, then it's patentable. The actual algorithm shouldn't be patentable, but should be covered under copyright or trade secret.
Regardless, if it's made a public patent, this obviates the problem, as does the reversal of the existance of software "patents".
Personally, I agree, 17 years is too long, but given the initial delay, is not as bad. But the current patent plus renewal method or patent plus minor tweak method results in patents not being usable by the public for sometimes more than half a century, which is not good.
I would expect a public patent should not have to be enforced, by their revenue nature.
Such delays were common at the time the patent system was established in the US Constitution, and even more limited patents existed in Switzerland, where Albert Einstein was a patent clerk.
One's greed at having a longer license time does not equal the societal good of public patents and short patent life. It was a limited time then, and it should be a limited time now.
Copyright, for example, used to be for only 12 years, was extended, and then extended, and then extended. Now, it's effectively 70 years after the copyright registrant dies. Which makes a farce of the intention of copyright, just as our current patent regime makes a farce of the intention of patents.
WWJD? My guess is he'd overturn the moneylenders table.
I stand doubly-corrected.
What about Royal Dutch Shell mGBH? Do I have to call it by its full name, or can I just say Shell?
Hyphens are good.
As Yahoo-eBay-Google and Microsoft-Dell battle for dominance, like dinosaurs unwilling to look up and see the open source asteroid about to hit the Yucatan peninsula.
Hyphens are good - just look at what a wonderful company Exxon-Mobil or Texaco-whatever is now.
1. Yes, the patent system is severely broken, and it's flawed. Yes, the European version is better. Yes, patents (my grandfather had a few) should only last 17 years period, as the intention is to force publication of such information/concepts/executions so that everyone may gain from such public knowledge through a time-limited license, and the extensions we currently grant work against such concepts. But, let's face it, unless you have a few billion dollars, they will ignore what we say on this matter, for they are corrupt.
2. We need more public patents - and we need places like universities and colleges and publicly-funded institutions to file them, or at least on renewal reclassify the patent as a public patent but administer it, with a portion of revenues being used to reform the patent system.
3. Software is not, nor should it every be, patentable. Copyright? Sure. I published freeware and shareware at the dawn of public computing (70s/80s). But not patentable, nor should business processes nor conceptual methods be patentable. It is just plain wrong.
I don't expect you to agree with me, but I think this latest USPTO ruling brings up the issue on the public JPEG usage. JPEG is from the publicly-funded Jet Propulsion Laboratories - which we pay for with taxes. Open source depends on public patents, or at worst private patents signed over to OSF and other groups to administer.
The reality, based on reports read as a former investor in Microsoft, is that Office and related products are the bulk of Microsoft's cash flow, after earnings from the vast cash horde and holdings in other companies.
Right now China pirates 98 percent of all Microsoft software - including 80 percent of all such software in Chinese government and military offices. As do Cambodia, Thailand, and other countries.
Microsoft would make more money going after those pirates, instead of trying to force new Office formats on us, but we're easier marks.
Now, having said all that, I'm buying about 400 shares of Microsoft on June 10th or thereabouts.
You can fight the 5,000,000 kilo gorilla, or you can ask it for a ride.
Game Cube didn't have enough games. For the Wii, we're begging publishers to develop for it.
Well, sure. But even before E3, Nintendo had announced, with at least game titles and cover art, more than 100 games for the Nintendo Revolution (now Wii). And the thing that struck me about them was they broke down the wall between Japan and the US in terms of game types. No longer did they restrict the games to Japan-only versions, they actively sought to port a more diverse set.
I see. So this thing [internet2.edu] is just a figment of my imagination? If you're going to criticize someone for being a dumbass, you'd better be careful not to be a dumbass yourself.
... they don't realize even South Korea has broadband 20 times faster than US cable modems throughout the entire country, or that universities use Gigapop switches just for internal same-room wiring.
...
Ssshh. Don't tell them we have pipeline that makes theirs look like a putt-putt car next to our rocket ship
If they found out about it, we'd have to let them buy wood on it, and right now we're busy using it to decode genomes, find protein structures, do medical surgery remotely, and find drug targets for malaria.
However, none of this will keep me from buying the Pokemon Pikachu Lightning Yellow Wii with Bulbasoar Blue-green Nintendo DS combo that will be bundled around Christmas
because they want to own the format, and don't want us using something like JPEG which is provided by the government without a license fee.
given the way our currency is become worth less all the time, right?
Seriously, though, $225 is a great price, which means you can pick it up at Costco for probably $199 around Christmas in a game bundle.