"Itâ(TM)s hard to get much out of the data at this point, but it seems that 90% charge level appears to be the ideal daily charge level and surprisingly, frequent Supercharging (twice a week to daily) appears to actually be beneficial in preventing battery degradation.
CEO Elon Musk once referred to a battery pack Tesla was testing in the lab. He said that the company had simulated over 500,000 miles on it and that it was still operating at over 80% of its original capacity. It sounds crazy. The car itself is more likely to give up than the battery pack at this kind of mileage, but based on this new data, it looks a lot more plausible."
Another factor to keep in mind is that the old battery above will probably retain over a third of it's value- further lowering the cost of replacing it with a new pack. The thing is, the packs are not monolithic. They are made of modules which themselves contain single batteries about as big as two stacked "D" cells. Each cell is very simple in construction- basically a layer of material with a thin layer of charging material rolled up like toilet paper until it's the appropriate thickness. Then two endcaps are put on and it's wrapped in a couple of heavy coating layers. That's dead simple manufacturing. It should get a lot cheaper.
---
I had to choose between buying one of the original teslas or retiring years earlier but I still follow them. I think an electric car of some kind will be ideal for my city commuting.
There was a really cool "Tron" Concept car about 2012 which was fully electric and estimated to run about $130,000 if it had seen production. That would have been my dream.
More like 8 years and road experience is showing it may be much longer for most drivers.
And in 8 years, new batteries will be about 40% less expensive and have 40% more capacity than current batteries... and batteries are heavy. And weight means reduced range.
So factor one, say a $10,000 battery pack is going for $6,000. But the batteries have 40% more capacity. So either, you just upgraded your range... or you can go with a smaller, lighter battery pack, that has 20% more range and is only $5,000. Or you can buy a really small, very light battery pack that has the same range as your old battery pack but costs $3,600 (and it still probably has a higher range due to the lower weight meaning the car will go farther on the same charge.
My 2011 ICE vehicle (and the one before it... and the one before it) both get 22mpg city and 25mpg highway.
If you double the mileage however (44 and 50) then electric vehicle operating costs are still much lower than gasoline.
There is a feedback loop in play too. More electric cars means *lower* gasoline prices for you in your ICE vehicle. At least until the network effect breaks down to too little demand for gasoline cars. Then it may get very expensive. Think "Landlines" which screamed from $13 to $36 very quickly as the network effect of serving 90% of the people on a street broke down.
Exactly. Just make sure it has a physical switch controlling the wifi.:-) These are not unreasonable, expensive precautions.
However, I don't think an A.I. running on any current laptop or any laptop for the next 10 years is a risk.
I think there is no risk in simple, understood machine learning. My comment are targeting research and heavy duty, supercomputer level processing power.
How many times have humans made extremely confident predictions in the past and been wrong?
Assume the same is true for A.I. and in 10 years, we get an improved algorithm that's 100x more efficient, running on hardware that's 100x as powerful as today. We could have a superintelligent a.i. which can discover ideas and concepts humans can't but which has the morality of a five year old and no empathy.
So mitigate the risk by having procedures in place when working with research into A.I.
Just to be clear, I'm not talking about training ANN's we already understand. I don't think the hardware is powerful enough.
Also, I'm not saying the risk is a "General A.I." it could be a very specific A.I. that get's loose and relentlessly and creatively acts on some specific goal.
In that case, it has no need for introspection, empathy, or even to be smarter than a squirrel. Squirrels are absolute devil's at getting birdfood meant for birds. They are very dumb but they are very persistent.
---
So one area that could be a risk now is research into teams of A.I.'s for network games. The brain is compartmented into multiple intelligences- none of which has enough power to function as a brain.
I'm particularly fascinated with the amygdala and failures of the amygdala. Conciousness may simply be an emergent property when you get group enough stupid intelligences.
It's possible an A.I. composed of A.I.'s might become conscious.
---
That said, I'm much more concerned with the risk that a squirrel brained A.I. with a viral replication method could be a huge risk to civilization since we are so dependent on connectivity now.
Experts in the field don't have as much confidence that we know how fast it will proceed.
There are a variety of possibilities.
One is that A.I. increases slowly. We keep up with understanding it. Society adapts to the changes made as various A.I. systems come into place.
One is that A.I. increases rapidly, over a few years but we still have some time to deal with it.
One is that A.I. increases to superhuman levels in under a day... perhaps under an hour... even in a few minutes.
We don't know if the odds are 33/33/33 or 98/1/1 or even 999999999/1. The danger of the last case is extinction level risk.
I recognize all cases. But the downside of the last case is equivalent to a large asteroid hitting the planet.
So we should take reasonable precautions I've listed above when dealing with new areas of A.I.
Do I think an 11 layer neural network is going to achieve conciousness (or even simply grow in power and implement its base incentives in a blind way unintelligently but uncontrollably)? No. Tho we don't really understand them well, it seems that the hardware and algorithms are new enough.
So, if someone is working on that level of A.I.-- no need for high precautions.
But if someone is working on a new concept, a new algorithm, or a new level of power.-- take precautions.
The average travel time to work in the United States is 25.4 minutes, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Let's make that 30 minutes to include time to walk from the parking lot.
Some fields work over time often. Some fields work overtime occasionally. But most jobs are 45 hours or less.
Increasingly people work from home 1-2 days a week so you can drop the travel time for them.
Psychiatry. 1. a person with a psychopathic personality whose behavior is antisocial, often criminal, and who lacks a sense of moral responsibility or social conscience. Compare psychopath. Origin of sociopath.
psyÂchoÂpath
a person suffering from chronic mental disorder with abnormal or violent social behavior.
informal
an unstable and aggressive person.
https://www.healthyplace.com/p... " There are sociopaths in our midst. Some of them are high-functioning sociopaths. High-functioning or not, all lack empathy. All are antisocial; they ignore the rules and laws of society so they can live by their own norms.... They all have the same clinical diagnosis: antisocial personality disorder..... A low-functioning sociopath will try to charm because doing so helps him manipulate others. He can cause physical, emotional, and financial damage to his victims. Unlike the high-functioning sociopath, he lacks long-term planning skills, patience, and drive. He can, for example, swindle people out of hundreds of dollars, but he either is caught or becomes bored before moving on.
In contrast, a high-functioning sociopath is great at what he does. He also can cause physical, emotional, and financial damage to anyone he so chooses. He's more deliberate about it, though. Whereas a low-functioning sociopath can con someone out of hundreds of dollars, the high-functioning sociopath predator can manipulate, lie, cheat, his way into a fortune.
All sociopaths are dangerous whether labled high-functioning, low-functioning or narcissistic sociopaths. A high-functioning sociopath can dream bigger and manipulate better than other sociopaths. They can cause a great deal of damage. "
At the least, lack of empathy is strongly associated with sociopathy.
How have humans treated other species and even subgroups of humans.
Why do you think an A.I. would treat humans any differently?
Like the A.I. that didn't play the rules of Q*Bert but instead cheated in a new way humans had missed.
A.I. does what it's incented and trained to do. But we don't always know what we are incenting it or training it to do.
An A.I. to identify sheep or tanks could easily be accidentally be trained to recognize sunny or cloudy days or white fence posts by accident.
An A.I. tasked with improving the standard of living for humans could logically conclude that a suffering human would be better off dead and a group of humans would have a higher standard of living if there were less humans in the group.
A.I. research should be done in an air gapped environment, with analog power meters, easily disruptable power supply, physically fused remotely, remotely video and audio recording of the people directly engaging with the A.I.
This is an extinction level risk. It should be taken seriously.
Laxity around sterile conditions in an environment where antibiotics are in use to kill germs which result in 99.999999% of the germs being killed instead of 100% of the germs being killed breeds germs which are resistant to both sterilization procedures and to antibiotics. They are also bread by germs being carelessly reintroduced to patients who are 'well' and have low levels of antibiotics left in their system.
U.S. doctors were too convinced of the power of pills and antibiotics and too ignorant of how quickly germs could become immune if even a few of those germs survived the antibiotics or sterilization technique.
A useless coward said... > I'm sure that only happens in the US . Beyond your bigotry, there are actual studies that show that nearly half of British women have fecal matter on their hands due to not washing after visits to the bathroom. With cultural proclivities such as that, they probably see a higher intersection with their doctor population. The other question to ask is how well are they sterilizing their tools (i.e. flash autoclave is becoming the standard to save time).
Okay.
First. As a certain bard regales... I was born in the U.S.A.
Secondly, I haven't been in hospitals in other countries. I have been in hospitals in the U.S.A. and furthermore, I've been reading articles about problems in U.S. hospitals for over three decades when these diseases first arose. Probably longer than you've been alive.
These superbugs are mainly limited to hospitals. Sterile conditions are not as important when you are going from one person who is basically healthy to another person who is basically healthy.
Sterile conditions *do* matter when you are dealing with sick people who are being given antibiotics to kill germs. You don't want to get fresh germs on someone who's antibiotics are wearing out from the last dose because that's ideal conditions to fail to kill very slightly resistant germs. Once you have a population of very slightly resistant germs, now you have the basis for resistant and super resistant germs.
So that means take your full course of antibiotics to ensure 100% of the germs are dead, not 99.9999999999% of them. And it means employees in hospitals need to be vigilant that zero germs are transmitted from patient to patient via instruments, clothing, skin, etc.
meanwhile... we have hospitals firing nurses for being sent home sick with the flu. Think those nurses are going to stay away while infected or come into work and spread it to everyone else (like the "super workers" in business who come in sick and give it to everyone in the office).
You should probably ask questions before making assumptions. I'm from the U.S.A. I speak from experience. I'm old. I've seen it happening personally. I've also seen careless doctors and nurses misset drug administration machines for 10x the prescribed dosage and not catch it for hours and (probably) kill another patient. Be patient active- not patient passive.
The guy above has it right. U.S. Doctors at hospitals are lax about sterile conditions outside of operations. It's been found repeatedly. There are signs up to remind them. They ignore them at least some of the time.
The "critics" on RT are completely useless. In some cases, I suspect excessive corporate influence. In some cases they appear want to have it both ways- they right a reasonable review with pluses and minuses and then rate the film a "10".
The audience ratings are useful for now. I suspect some way will be found to corrupt them over time (bots perhaps?)
I also listen to youtube to discover new shows and movies.
I have minimal cable. It literally would be $78 without cable and it's $68 with cable. I actually tune to cable about.. hmm. once per 3-4 months? It's pretty sucky cable except I get a choice of HBO or Showtime. So I watch westworld and game of thrones and then I'm done.
Too many new shows are dystopic and dystopic puts me off. Too many commercials on network television.
Lately I've been watching old tv shows on youtube. *Very* entertaining. Laugh out loud funny. Saw a very serious dramatic piece with *Milton Berle!!!*. Turns out he was nominated for an emmy for the performance.
But mostly, the TV stays tuned to Netflix. I'll drop into Amazon Prime for specific shows a couple times a year but their service constantly steers me to paid content which is a waste of my time since I will not pay $2 for a tv show and they don't tell me at the top it's a paid show or let me filter to "free only".
So most stuff I watch is on Youtube, then on Netflix.
Oh and i watch british stuff my friend checks out from the library.
I'm in texas and their web site doesn't work in firefox or chrome. On the page with city and state they say something about will be 'autofilled' and the red "next page" button is greyedout.
And their phone android app doesn't work either on my phone. First, they want me to start at 2018 and go back a month at a time, to my birthdate in the 1960s (no drop down- no way to simply type in a date). Second- the red button to advance to the next page is greyed out... again.
Seriously. I had Bose and another brand I can't remember. Nothing worked or works on an airplane like a set of gunfire ear protection muffs combined with earbuds.
I've loosened mine up thru use and recently wore them for 6 hours on a flight back from the west coast while watching movies and shows on my devices. They don't use batteries. They are very effective against airplane noise.
Slashdot Mirror
We had rivers catching on fire and the government got serious about the pollution.
It remained serious until fairly recently. It's been backsliding in republican areas for a while.
Aye!
https://electrek.co/2016/11/01...
"Itâ(TM)s hard to get much out of the data at this point, but it seems that 90% charge level appears to be the ideal daily charge level and surprisingly, frequent Supercharging (twice a week to daily) appears to actually be beneficial in preventing battery degradation.
CEO Elon Musk once referred to a battery pack Tesla was testing in the lab. He said that the company had simulated over 500,000 miles on it and that it was still operating at over 80% of its original capacity. It sounds crazy. The car itself is more likely to give up than the battery pack at this kind of mileage, but based on this new data, it looks a lot more plausible."
Another factor to keep in mind is that the old battery above will probably retain over a third of it's value- further lowering the cost of replacing it with a new pack. The thing is, the packs are not monolithic. They are made of modules which themselves contain single batteries about as big as two stacked "D" cells. Each cell is very simple in construction- basically a layer of material with a thin layer of charging material rolled up like toilet paper until it's the appropriate thickness. Then two endcaps are put on and it's wrapped in a couple of heavy coating layers. That's dead simple manufacturing. It should get a lot cheaper.
---
I had to choose between buying one of the original teslas or retiring years earlier but I still follow them. I think an electric car of some kind will be ideal for my city commuting.
There was a really cool "Tron" Concept car about 2012 which was fully electric and estimated to run about $130,000 if it had seen production. That would have been my dream.
More like 8 years and road experience is showing it may be much longer for most drivers.
And in 8 years, new batteries will be about 40% less expensive and have 40% more capacity than current batteries... and batteries are heavy. And weight means reduced range.
So factor one, say a $10,000 battery pack is going for $6,000. But the batteries have 40% more capacity. So either, you just upgraded your range... or you can go with a smaller, lighter battery pack, that has 20% more range and is only $5,000. Or you can buy a really small, very light battery pack that has the same range as your old battery pack but costs $3,600 (and it still probably has a higher range due to the lower weight meaning the car will go farther on the same charge.
My 2011 ICE vehicle (and the one before it... and the one before it) both get 22mpg city and 25mpg highway.
If you double the mileage however (44 and 50) then electric vehicle operating costs are still much lower than gasoline.
There is a feedback loop in play too. More electric cars means *lower* gasoline prices for you in your ICE vehicle. At least until the network effect breaks down to too little demand for gasoline cars. Then it may get very expensive. Think "Landlines" which screamed from $13 to $36 very quickly as the network effect of serving 90% of the people on a street broke down.
"Most of us can do this on a laptop"
Exactly. Just make sure it has a physical switch controlling the wifi. :-)
These are not unreasonable, expensive precautions.
However, I don't think an A.I. running on any current laptop or any laptop for the next 10 years is a risk.
I think there is no risk in simple, understood machine learning. My comment are targeting research and heavy duty, supercomputer level processing power.
How many times have humans made extremely confident predictions in the past and been wrong?
Assume the same is true for A.I. and in 10 years, we get an improved algorithm that's 100x more efficient, running on hardware that's 100x as powerful as today. We could have a superintelligent a.i. which can discover ideas and concepts humans can't but which has the morality of a five year old and no empathy.
So mitigate the risk by having procedures in place when working with research into A.I.
Just to be clear, I'm not talking about training ANN's we already understand. I don't think the hardware is powerful enough.
Also, I'm not saying the risk is a "General A.I." it could be a very specific A.I. that get's loose and relentlessly and creatively acts on some specific goal.
In that case, it has no need for introspection, empathy, or even to be smarter than a squirrel. Squirrels are absolute devil's at getting birdfood meant for birds. They are very dumb but they are very persistent.
---
So one area that could be a risk now is research into teams of A.I.'s for network games. The brain is compartmented into multiple intelligences- none of which has enough power to function as a brain.
I'm particularly fascinated with the amygdala and failures of the amygdala. Conciousness may simply be an emergent property when you get group enough stupid intelligences.
It's possible an A.I. composed of A.I.'s might become conscious.
---
That said, I'm much more concerned with the risk that a squirrel brained A.I. with a viral replication method could be a huge risk to civilization since we are so dependent on connectivity now.
Experts in the field don't have as much confidence that we know how fast it will proceed.
There are a variety of possibilities.
One is that A.I. increases slowly. We keep up with understanding it. Society adapts to the changes made as various A.I. systems come into place.
One is that A.I. increases rapidly, over a few years but we still have some time to deal with it.
One is that A.I. increases to superhuman levels in under a day... perhaps under an hour... even in a few minutes.
We don't know if the odds are 33/33/33 or 98/1/1 or even 999999999/1. The danger of the last case is extinction level risk.
I recognize all cases. But the downside of the last case is equivalent to a large asteroid hitting the planet.
So we should take reasonable precautions I've listed above when dealing with new areas of A.I.
Do I think an 11 layer neural network is going to achieve conciousness (or even simply grow in power and implement its base incentives in a blind way unintelligently but uncontrollably)? No. Tho we don't really understand them well, it seems that the hardware and algorithms are new enough.
So, if someone is working on that level of A.I.-- no need for high precautions.
But if someone is working on a new concept, a new algorithm, or a new level of power.-- take precautions.
"Sex sells! Blood Leads!!!!!"
Uh... google?
Are you being sarcastic or joking?
The average work year is 1783 hours.
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.a...
The average travel time to work in the United States is 25.4 minutes, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Let's make that 30 minutes to include time to walk from the parking lot.
Some fields work over time often. Some fields work overtime occasionally. But most jobs are 45 hours or less.
Increasingly people work from home 1-2 days a week so you can drop the travel time for them.
I was unable to actually buy a movie pass thru either the app or the web site.
So no good either way for me.
Sociopath
Psychiatry. 1. a person with a psychopathic personality whose behavior is antisocial, often criminal, and who lacks a sense of moral responsibility or social conscience. Compare psychopath. Origin of sociopath.
psyÂchoÂpath
a person suffering from chronic mental disorder with abnormal or violent social behavior.
informal
an unstable and aggressive person.
https://www.healthyplace.com/p... ... They all have the same clinical diagnosis: antisocial personality disorder. ....
"
There are sociopaths in our midst. Some of them are high-functioning sociopaths. High-functioning or not, all lack empathy. All are antisocial; they ignore the rules and laws of society so they can live by their own norms.
A low-functioning sociopath will try to charm because doing so helps him manipulate others. He can cause physical, emotional, and financial damage to his victims. Unlike the high-functioning sociopath, he lacks long-term planning skills, patience, and drive. He can, for example, swindle people out of hundreds of dollars, but he either is caught or becomes bored before moving on.
In contrast, a high-functioning sociopath is great at what he does. He also can cause physical, emotional, and financial damage to anyone he so chooses. He's more deliberate about it, though. Whereas a low-functioning sociopath can con someone out of hundreds of dollars, the high-functioning sociopath predator can manipulate, lie, cheat, his way into a fortune.
All sociopaths are dangerous whether labled high-functioning, low-functioning or narcissistic sociopaths. A high-functioning sociopath can dream bigger and manipulate better than other sociopaths. They can cause a great deal of damage.
"
At the least, lack of empathy is strongly associated with sociopathy.
How have humans treated other species and even subgroups of humans.
Why do you think an A.I. would treat humans any differently?
Like the A.I. that didn't play the rules of Q*Bert but instead cheated in a new way humans had missed.
A.I. does what it's incented and trained to do. But we don't always know what we are incenting it or training it to do.
An A.I. to identify sheep or tanks could easily be accidentally be trained to recognize sunny or cloudy days or white fence posts by accident.
An A.I. tasked with improving the standard of living for humans could logically conclude that a suffering human would be better off dead and a group of humans would have a higher standard of living if there were less humans in the group.
A.I. research should be done in an air gapped environment, with analog power meters, easily disruptable power supply, physically fused remotely, remotely video and audio recording of the people directly engaging with the A.I.
This is an extinction level risk. It should be taken seriously.
Well, that might actually be the "third" leg while one of the other services is the fourth leg.
Laxity around sterile conditions in an environment where antibiotics are in use to kill germs which result in 99.999999% of the germs being killed instead of 100% of the germs being killed breeds germs which are resistant to both sterilization procedures and to antibiotics. They are also bread by germs being carelessly reintroduced to patients who are 'well' and have low levels of antibiotics left in their system.
U.S. doctors were too convinced of the power of pills and antibiotics and too ignorant of how quickly germs could become immune if even a few of those germs survived the antibiotics or sterilization technique.
A useless coward said...
> I'm sure that only happens in the US . Beyond your bigotry, there are actual studies that show that nearly half of British women have fecal matter on their hands due to not washing after visits to the bathroom. With cultural proclivities such as that, they probably see a higher intersection with their doctor population. The other question to ask is how well are they sterilizing their tools (i.e. flash autoclave is becoming the standard to save time).
Okay.
First. As a certain bard regales... I was born in the U.S.A.
Secondly, I haven't been in hospitals in other countries. I have been in hospitals in the U.S.A. and furthermore, I've been reading articles about problems in U.S. hospitals for over three decades when these diseases first arose. Probably longer than you've been alive.
These superbugs are mainly limited to hospitals. Sterile conditions are not as important when you are going from one person who is basically healthy to another person who is basically healthy.
Sterile conditions *do* matter when you are dealing with sick people who are being given antibiotics to kill germs. You don't want to get fresh germs on someone who's antibiotics are wearing out from the last dose because that's ideal conditions to fail to kill very slightly resistant germs. Once you have a population of very slightly resistant germs, now you have the basis for resistant and super resistant germs.
So that means take your full course of antibiotics to ensure 100% of the germs are dead, not 99.9999999999% of them. And it means employees in hospitals need to be vigilant that zero germs are transmitted from patient to patient via instruments, clothing, skin, etc.
meanwhile... we have hospitals firing nurses for being sent home sick with the flu. Think those nurses are going to stay away while infected or come into work and spread it to everyone else (like the "super workers" in business who come in sick and give it to everyone in the office).
You should probably ask questions before making assumptions. I'm from the U.S.A. I speak from experience. I'm old. I've seen it happening personally. I've also seen careless doctors and nurses misset drug administration machines for 10x the prescribed dosage and not catch it for hours and (probably) kill another patient. Be patient active- not patient passive.
Different set of problems from meat.
The guy above has it right. U.S. Doctors at hospitals are lax about sterile conditions outside of operations. It's been found repeatedly. There are signs up to remind them. They ignore them at least some of the time.
The "critics" on RT are completely useless. In some cases, I suspect excessive corporate influence. In some cases they appear want to have it both ways- they right a reasonable review with pluses and minuses and then rate the film a "10".
The audience ratings are useful for now. I suspect some way will be found to corrupt them over time (bots perhaps?)
I also listen to youtube to discover new shows and movies.
I have minimal cable. It literally would be $78 without cable and it's $68 with cable. I actually tune to cable about.. hmm. once per 3-4 months? It's pretty sucky cable except I get a choice of HBO or Showtime. So I watch westworld and game of thrones and then I'm done.
Too many new shows are dystopic and dystopic puts me off.
Too many commercials on network television.
Lately I've been watching old tv shows on youtube. *Very* entertaining. Laugh out loud funny. Saw a very serious dramatic piece with *Milton Berle!!!*. Turns out he was nominated for an emmy for the performance.
But mostly, the TV stays tuned to Netflix. I'll drop into Amazon Prime for specific shows a couple times a year but their service constantly steers me to paid content which is a waste of my time since I will not pay $2 for a tv show and they don't tell me at the top it's a paid show or let me filter to "free only".
So most stuff I watch is on Youtube, then on Netflix.
Oh and i watch british stuff my friend checks out from the library.
We used to have 3 areas off DST and there was coding for them.
In most cases, it will be adding to a table, or updating a comparison statement.
More of a problem for code that's hard to update.
Oh come on, you should know what you did to prompt that response without Siri having to tell you.
Lol.
You Trumped his response.
Many, er, ... service providers... will give you a trip "around the world" for a lot less than $19,500.
Seems like a good Roku Channel idea.
Also, wonder if the TV will work the same in all light levels (including lights off). Does it?
Before and after eh? So still in your 40's. Wait til your 50's. before, after, and during.
I'm in texas and their web site doesn't work in firefox or chrome.
On the page with city and state they say something about will be 'autofilled' and the red "next page" button is greyedout.
And their phone android app doesn't work either on my phone.
First, they want me to start at 2018 and go back a month at a time, to my birthdate in the 1960s (no drop down- no way to simply type in a date).
Second- the red button to advance to the next page is greyed out... again.
Ridiculous.
Seriously. I had Bose and another brand I can't remember. Nothing worked or works on an airplane like a set of gunfire ear protection muffs combined with earbuds.
I've loosened mine up thru use and recently wore them for 6 hours on a flight back from the west coast while watching movies and shows on my devices. They don't use batteries. They are very effective against airplane noise.
Interestingly, there are multiple videos on Youtube of Sheep which think they are dogs.
for example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...