These things are in other cities as well, from both Bird and a handful of other vendors. They cost about $500 to buy, and you can pretty easily get $20/day in rental fees out of them, so it is a pretty simple business. Just need to gather them up and charge them to keep them generating revenue, so expect to see more...
Just carry a shovel with you when walking on the sidewalk. Many uses, from a gentle nudge to an accidental drop across the sidewalk... to a full out hit somebody upside his face for being an (inconsiderate) idiot.
No, I don't actually advocate others do this; I have a license for unconcealed carry.
In all seriousness, using these things on the sidewalk is just stupid. As a bicyclist, I also hope they don't get into the bike lanes and pose a danger to cyclists. The best place for them is the freeway where traffic is going at the same speed...
Grid connected batteries have been around for a long time, but the current systems are more appropriate for addressing the “duck curve” caused by large solar contributions to the grid. It also can localize the solution to that problem and eliminate it as a grid issue.
Tesla’s advantage is they mass produce the batteries as well as the power electronics. That is also potentially a disadvantage, as chemistry-agnostic integrators can potentially select one chemistry for fast-response and another for bulk capacity to reduce costs.
Tesla seems to have the biggest installations and the largest industrial footprint though.
There are other variables— primarily in transmission lines, that constrain optimal placement. The only time they are really valuable at the source is with wind, and that is actually the transmission coupling point. Upstream, you hope the number of turbines provides limited smoothing.
A couple problems with that. The battery defeats the value of the gas turbine in providing "fast" response regulation up or down-- the turbine is no longer the go-to fast response source. Secondly, storage is generally most valuable close to demand, and not close to generation.
Where batteries will help is plants that cannot be competitively spun up and down fast enough for grid "fast" response-- they can use the battery to achieve a better ramp rate. Unfortunately, prices need to drop nearly an order of magnitude for the value to stack there.
Honestly, I feel like the client is a part of the problem, not the solution. Exchange is what makes Outlook really work... but the model is still broken.
(I use Mac Mail... I really need a fscking calendar that actually works, especially when setting up appointments with Apple corporate.)
I need zero spam, zero marketing, zero IEEE (et al) announcements. I need messages that are clear on what is "information only" and what requires action on my part; items that I need to monitor, and what I need to have someone else monitor.
I get about 150 emails per day (after spam/marketing) that require some level of action. It used to be fine while my photographic memory was intact, but now it all just feels like a bunch of garbage.
I want a client that sorts through all the crap for me and identifies what I need to do...
Has nothing to do with “American wages,” and especially not in a downward direction. If they become eligible for the H1B, they would be at about 115% of normal wage for the position based on experience (and maybe 105-110% based on capability). But, the reason for hiring them is about getting talent, not just bodies. There is maybe 1% unemployment in my industry locally right now— likely much less.
Getting the best and brightest from other countries is a good thing. It used to bother me a little, but after hiring two Indian engineers I would say I would rather keep that talent in the US.
The only problem is that now to transition them to H1B, they need to earn $91k... without their PE. One is worth it for sure, the other has to convince me still...
The one life experience I have that makes me hope you are right: In ~2000, I was in western Cambodia that was bombed to hell by the US. I asked people what they thought about the people that bombed them back then, and they were rightly infuriated with those Damn Nixon's... but they love Americans. I just hope things get sorted out for good and not just this bullshit ping-pong shit going on now.
It won’t be easy for any competitors to harm Tesla without the same capital investments Tesla has already made; the fact that Tesla has the batteries in-house gives them a huge advantage.
Their real challenge will be to continue executing to (if not ahead of) plan. They need to be very smart with their money as well as changing standards and technology... like they have been.
The Solar City acquisition will be an interesting one to review in a few years though.
Not necessarily; if you believe in carbon capture then a cement kiln might be a logical place to do it. The only real issue is the CO2 is quite hot and mixed with a lot of other nasty stuff-- but maybe not much of a challenge compared to a liquid CO2 plant using refinery feed gas.
The heat input is one part of the problem, but you are calcining the limestone, which emits significant CO2 as well. Not sure about the overall reactions and what else comes into play.
As for the heat input, it would be a challenge to make a solar kiln for 1300C, but you still have the thermodynamic limitations of needing to heat something up really hot and then cooling it back down to ambient temperature.
Look at today’s numbers; replacement level orders or better, significantly writing down deferred costs, and improvement measures that are improving margins... and improved output.
And Nissan only spends $16k per car in incentives to move them. The leaf has sold ~310k units since 2010, and the Model S ~230k since 2012... at very different price points.
Production rate dictates profit as fixed costs are spread over multiple units; you se it in other products from other manufacturers as well. The business case was predicated on a production rate of X, and it takes time to achieve that rate.
If S and X are making >25% margins at equal combined output to the 3, and total margin is ~19%, it is easy to see the path to profitability.
The 787 is poised to be the most profitable widebody in Boeing’s history. While the roll-out and ramp up were nothing to be praised, they have taken control of the process, are producing at unprecedented rates, and have a very solid future even on the -8, which was being written off just 12 months ago by some industry experts.
(If Tesla used program accounting, I wonder where they would be...)
Please, no! Compliance is cheaper than litigating the vague crap. Even things that are "clearly" spelled out in wage orders still have a lot of vague areas that are subject to interpretation by people who are programmed with "Employer Bad, Employee Honest and Abused."
We now have to have a fscking time clock for engineers without their EIT (non-exempt), which is completely stupid but needed for compliance. But at least the requirement is clear...
This is one that I think is actually a challenge. Granted, the ruling only applies to CA DOL wage orders (effectively minimum wage plus a few associated items), but for my business we hire two very experienced mostly-retired engineers (72 and 77 years old). One of them goes away for a month or so at a time, and the other (older) one is easing into retirement. Both want flexibility, and it does provide each with a tax benefit. Neither wants any of our benefits, nor the pay penalty associated with them.
So, should they be part-time employees? The primary business part of the equation means yes if they work for us, but no if they work directly for one of our clients. This seems arbitrary.
A third person we work with just "retired," and does work for 5-6 other companies and likely well over 50 hours per week. Should he pay social security tax based on the base salary at each employer, or in aggregate as his own business?
It doesn't really impact me as an employer-- it is barely $200k of pay per year, and paying an extra $15k in payroll taxes isn't a big deal, but the contractor arrangement is what makes their expertise available in the first place.
Care to provide a management structure where the senior administrators make the same amount as teachers that will be effective?
You could reasonably have one "manager" per 20 employees if the employees are fairly autonomous, but that type of person would make about twice as much. At the same pay rate, you are looking at a 1:6 ratio although they should be able to teach ~50%, and you still need someone to manage those people.
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These things are in other cities as well, from both Bird and a handful of other vendors. They cost about $500 to buy, and you can pretty easily get $20/day in rental fees out of them, so it is a pretty simple business. Just need to gather them up and charge them to keep them generating revenue, so expect to see more...
Just carry a shovel with you when walking on the sidewalk. Many uses, from a gentle nudge to an accidental drop across the sidewalk... to a full out hit somebody upside his face for being an (inconsiderate) idiot.
No, I don't actually advocate others do this; I have a license for unconcealed carry.
In all seriousness, using these things on the sidewalk is just stupid. As a bicyclist, I also hope they don't get into the bike lanes and pose a danger to cyclists. The best place for them is the freeway where traffic is going at the same speed...
Grid connected batteries have been around for a long time, but the current systems are more appropriate for addressing the “duck curve” caused by large solar contributions to the grid. It also can localize the solution to that problem and eliminate it as a grid issue.
The grid’s big hope at this point is in EVs.
Tesla’s advantage is they mass produce the batteries as well as the power electronics. That is also potentially a disadvantage, as chemistry-agnostic integrators can potentially select one chemistry for fast-response and another for bulk capacity to reduce costs.
Tesla seems to have the biggest installations and the largest industrial footprint though.
There are other variables— primarily in transmission lines, that constrain optimal placement. The only time they are really valuable at the source is with wind, and that is actually the transmission coupling point. Upstream, you hope the number of turbines provides limited smoothing.
A couple problems with that. The battery defeats the value of the gas turbine in providing "fast" response regulation up or down-- the turbine is no longer the go-to fast response source. Secondly, storage is generally most valuable close to demand, and not close to generation.
Where batteries will help is plants that cannot be competitively spun up and down fast enough for grid "fast" response-- they can use the battery to achieve a better ramp rate. Unfortunately, prices need to drop nearly an order of magnitude for the value to stack there.
Well stated and I actually agree with you. The challenge is just in getting people up to speed.
Honestly, I feel like the client is a part of the problem, not the solution. Exchange is what makes Outlook really work... but the model is still broken.
(I use Mac Mail... I really need a fscking calendar that actually works, especially when setting up appointments with Apple corporate.)
I need zero spam, zero marketing, zero IEEE (et al) announcements. I need messages that are clear on what is "information only" and what requires action on my part; items that I need to monitor, and what I need to have someone else monitor.
I get about 150 emails per day (after spam/marketing) that require some level of action. It used to be fine while my photographic memory was intact, but now it all just feels like a bunch of garbage.
I want a client that sorts through all the crap for me and identifies what I need to do...
Has nothing to do with “American wages,” and especially not in a downward direction. If they become eligible for the H1B, they would be at about 115% of normal wage for the position based on experience (and maybe 105-110% based on capability). But, the reason for hiring them is about getting talent, not just bodies. There is maybe 1% unemployment in my industry locally right now— likely much less.
Getting the best and brightest from other countries is a good thing. It used to bother me a little, but after hiring two Indian engineers I would say I would rather keep that talent in the US.
The only problem is that now to transition them to H1B, they need to earn $91k... without their PE. One is worth it for sure, the other has to convince me still...
The one life experience I have that makes me hope you are right: In ~2000, I was in western Cambodia that was bombed to hell by the US. I asked people what they thought about the people that bombed them back then, and they were rightly infuriated with those Damn Nixon's... but they love Americans. I just hope things get sorted out for good and not just this bullshit ping-pong shit going on now.
It won’t be easy for any competitors to harm Tesla without the same capital investments Tesla has already made; the fact that Tesla has the batteries in-house gives them a huge advantage.
Their real challenge will be to continue executing to (if not ahead of) plan. They need to be very smart with their money as well as changing standards and technology... like they have been.
The Solar City acquisition will be an interesting one to review in a few years though.
Not necessarily; if you believe in carbon capture then a cement kiln might be a logical place to do it. The only real issue is the CO2 is quite hot and mixed with a lot of other nasty stuff-- but maybe not much of a challenge compared to a liquid CO2 plant using refinery feed gas.
The heat input is one part of the problem, but you are calcining the limestone, which emits significant CO2 as well. Not sure about the overall reactions and what else comes into play.
As for the heat input, it would be a challenge to make a solar kiln for 1300C, but you still have the thermodynamic limitations of needing to heat something up really hot and then cooling it back down to ambient temperature.
Look at today’s numbers; replacement level orders or better, significantly writing down deferred costs, and improvement measures that are improving margins... and improved output.
3% CAGR exceeds inflation, but not by that much.
Well, there is a reason why they have fewer Western Digital drives...
And Nissan only spends $16k per car in incentives to move them. The leaf has sold ~310k units since 2010, and the Model S ~230k since 2012... at very different price points.
Production rate dictates profit as fixed costs are spread over multiple units; you se it in other products from other manufacturers as well. The business case was predicated on a production rate of X, and it takes time to achieve that rate.
If S and X are making >25% margins at equal combined output to the 3, and total margin is ~19%, it is easy to see the path to profitability.
The 787 is poised to be the most profitable widebody in Boeing’s history. While the roll-out and ramp up were nothing to be praised, they have taken control of the process, are producing at unprecedented rates, and have a very solid future even on the -8, which was being written off just 12 months ago by some industry experts.
(If Tesla used program accounting, I wonder where they would be...)
Good summary. Tesla seems to be getting a number of things right, and well poised to be a major player moving forward.
You are right; it is just the employers that end up paying additional payroll tax that would otherwise be exempted.
Please, no! Compliance is cheaper than litigating the vague crap. Even things that are "clearly" spelled out in wage orders still have a lot of vague areas that are subject to interpretation by people who are programmed with "Employer Bad, Employee Honest and Abused."
We now have to have a fscking time clock for engineers without their EIT (non-exempt), which is completely stupid but needed for compliance. But at least the requirement is clear...
This is one that I think is actually a challenge. Granted, the ruling only applies to CA DOL wage orders (effectively minimum wage plus a few associated items), but for my business we hire two very experienced mostly-retired engineers (72 and 77 years old). One of them goes away for a month or so at a time, and the other (older) one is easing into retirement. Both want flexibility, and it does provide each with a tax benefit. Neither wants any of our benefits, nor the pay penalty associated with them.
So, should they be part-time employees? The primary business part of the equation means yes if they work for us, but no if they work directly for one of our clients. This seems arbitrary.
A third person we work with just "retired," and does work for 5-6 other companies and likely well over 50 hours per week. Should he pay social security tax based on the base salary at each employer, or in aggregate as his own business?
It doesn't really impact me as an employer-- it is barely $200k of pay per year, and paying an extra $15k in payroll taxes isn't a big deal, but the contractor arrangement is what makes their expertise available in the first place.
Care to provide a management structure where the senior administrators make the same amount as teachers that will be effective?
You could reasonably have one "manager" per 20 employees if the employees are fairly autonomous, but that type of person would make about twice as much. At the same pay rate, you are looking at a 1:6 ratio although they should be able to teach ~50%, and you still need someone to manage those people.