Junior AutoCAD drafters went away once (sufficient) Junior Engineers came into the workplace and knew CAD and could draft faster than they could mark up drawings. Senior drafters stuck around, as they could work from less robust markups.
Revit creates more jobs though (despite the automation), because it automated the wrong things. It does make it harder for junior level people to be useful though, as all the automated data requires more knowledge to be able to do anything.
It isn’t that hard today if you don’t have the franchise restrictions and legacy service requirements; you can profit with about 20% uptake for aerial fiber and 30% with buried fiber. A lot of rural areas would do well to throw the cable companies out.
The TVA doesn't fit in a "small government" model, and likely should have been privatized a long time ago. They actually run at a profit, which is a pretty good sign that they shouldn't be a government entity. Looking at their mix of power sources, it seems like they are also going to have some significant capital costs in the future that the government doesn't need to be on the hook for.
Hopefully, they can divest themselves of it in a logical way so that the benefits of what is in place are not completely lost. I favor separating generation, transmission, and distribution personally.
You might want to double-check the notes from the conference call. They indicate that the Model Y will be targeted primarily at the China market, which will require more automation, lower labor cost, and local production (partially by extension).
They invest what they have in a measured fashion to realize their plan. If they hit their stride on the Model 3 by the end of Q2, they should generate positive free cash flow at a minimum. At which point, they will likely invest in a ramp-up of the Model Y, which is expected to require an assembly line in China... and consume significant cash.
If I found anything disappointing in their financials, it was the fact that the energy business isn't doing as well as I would hope-- especially on the energy storage side. It looks like the windfarm battery plant in South Australia accounted for 60%+ of that revenue. I guess the other concern is the fact that sales/manufacturing of the S and X will be constrained by availability of the 18650 cells to 100k units.
What you are saying reminds me of the old discussion of the Artistic Method vs the Scientific Method.
The artistic method attempts to solve a problem by coming up with a solution, determining if it provides a solution, and if it does not rejecting it and starting over.
The scientific method attempts to refine its initial solution over many iterations, in order to eventually come up with a solution that works. Only when they hit a point that does not offer any more paths for refinement will they reject the original path.
Intelligence requires a mix of both methods. Algorithms are stuck in the scientific method without a reset button.
Um... I take advantage of Sonos' same terrible, awful, incorrigible security hole all the time, and I am thankful they have them! How else would you control what is playing, adjust volume, configure zones, etc without needing to use the Sonos app that constantly asks to be updated?
I have a mix of Insteon, Hue, Sonos, and some other crap in my home, glued together (technically much more like duct tape) with a Universal Devices ISY994 (and in true Rube-Goldberg fashion, with a Beagle or Pi adding some specific feedback). It lets me use Insteon remotes and switches to change not only lighting but music based on events. It isn't perfect, but boy is it nicer than needing to use a dedicated app for each system and not being able to have things communicate.
Eventually I will upgrade it so the universal remote can do everything rather than relying on Insteon remotes, and fix the Insteon units in fake wall switches for different functions.
Some level of rent-seeking is good for the economy. Rent-seeking on intangibles is much less defensible than on tangible assets.
Long-term loans aren't the problem either, although the tax deductions on loans becomes complicated quickly. Should a business be able to deduct interest on a capital loan? (Should a tax shelter?)
Capital investment is an important part of the economy, and cutting off access to cash will force the economy to stagnate-- not everything worth doing has a 20-year ROI.
We didn't have much trouble getting money from banks at LIBOR +2%, IIRC. If you can get money that cheap without sharing equity in the growth phase, why would you?
Of course, if all you have is an idea and you are relying on contract manufacturers in China to build it for you you might need a little extra...
I think the real reason IPOs are out of favor is summed up in TFS: the "intangible assets" aren't really worth what they claim. No positive cash flow, no dice.
There was an article (likely here) years ago about cameras with digital signing technology built in in order to satisfy evidence chain of custody requirements for police photographers.
It is odd that these types of features are not available in mass-market devices.
Unfortunately, the investors were not complicit in the crime. Losing everything is wrong, although they should get a big haircut for sure.
What should be done is that they are broken into independent banks on a state-by-state basis (ideally 3-4 different banks in major markets), with the national entity wound down over a few years. All senior executives involved should be banned for life from FDIC insured banks or publicly traded companies.
Yeah... the bastards at WFB did the same crap to me back then. I was stuck with the BS for three years as I was out of the country and couldn't open a new account. Then I opened a credit union account and was quite happy for nearly 15 years.
Now more of my banking is with Chase, as I get private client services due to my business. What a world of a difference!
I was shocked at just how bad the performance of a relatively high-spec'd machine was, and all I was doing was adding a VPN configuration for it. I can't imagine making the performance WORSE!
The classic argument on why an iPad makes a better tablet seems to apply. It reminds me of the first time I considered buying a Fujitsu ultralight notebook. Looks great, really light, crappy battery life, and extremely slow. Add in the fact that you have to buy desktop/laptop software licenses, and they really become a bad investment quickly.
I actually had an AutoDesk tech support guy call me back because he was sorry for the bullshit answer he gave for my problem, and proceeded to give me the correct answer and a direct number for Tier 2 support if I had another problem, or needed assistance in configuring. I was shocked!
I complain about the costs, I complain about the unrealistic expectations they sell to our clients, and I complain about the bugs they have never fixed over the past 20-30 years, and I complain about the new things they try to do to realize past promises (unsuccessfully)... but I prefer their software to the alternatives.
The $15k package is a single seat of specialized engineering software. Their annual licensing is about $5k per seat... for a package that has barely seen updates in 15 years.
My annual cost per person is based on a few packages everyone uses, plus a mix of more expensive things with 50% or fewer of staff members having simultaneous access. It is a challenge, because our industry group is typically considered low direct/indirect overhead. With $1k per person added cost, I need to recover about $5 per billable hour to cover it. As a percentage (or total amount), it might not seem like much, but that can become a material percentage of gross margin if you are not careful.
(And sadly, now that I am looking at my number, I realize it must exclude some software that is improperly categorized-- Bluebeam and our accounting per-seat licenses add another $500/person, and there is some software (over $15k total) that must have been charged directly to projects.)
It depends on what point on the curve you are at in terms of what the best investment is. Without the subsidies, the market would not have accelerated as quickly and profoundly as it did. Just 10 years ago, it was a really big deal to have a building with a 50kW PV array; the subsidies likely cut the time to get where we are now in half.
Personally, I think that has meaningful strategic value.
At this point, investment in renewables and energy efficiency research are commercially viable, and might not need as much of a government push. Microgrids still need funding and research, but that is much less cutting edge stuff.
As long as the administration doesn't start pushing fossil fuel at the expense of alternative energy, I will live with it.
United (at least) only establishes a delay reactively, and is hesitant to do so until they have a specific reason to do so. You have to start to learn what those reasons are if you want to anticipate real departure times. Aircraft substitutions not related to an inbound flight delay are the hardest one to see as a passenger... but if you see that the inbound flight is anticipated to land 15 minutes after your scheduled departure, you can be pretty sure your flight will not be leaving before 45 minutes after scheduled.
Knowing that a crew member is sick at an outstation, or that earlier delays will force your crew to time out before the flight is much harder to do.
Slashdot Mirror
Junior AutoCAD drafters went away once (sufficient) Junior Engineers came into the workplace and knew CAD and could draft faster than they could mark up drawings. Senior drafters stuck around, as they could work from less robust markups.
Revit creates more jobs though (despite the automation), because it automated the wrong things. It does make it harder for junior level people to be useful though, as all the automated data requires more knowledge to be able to do anything.
um... this is /. after all. UTF is still in its infancy.
It isn’t that hard today if you don’t have the franchise restrictions and legacy service requirements; you can profit with about 20% uptake for aerial fiber and 30% with buried fiber. A lot of rural areas would do well to throw the cable companies out.
The TVA doesn't fit in a "small government" model, and likely should have been privatized a long time ago. They actually run at a profit, which is a pretty good sign that they shouldn't be a government entity. Looking at their mix of power sources, it seems like they are also going to have some significant capital costs in the future that the government doesn't need to be on the hook for.
Hopefully, they can divest themselves of it in a logical way so that the benefits of what is in place are not completely lost. I favor separating generation, transmission, and distribution personally.
Didn’t catch the Aus revenue portion, thanks. Did see the air freight though... wonder what percentage had to be flown!
You might want to double-check the notes from the conference call. They indicate that the Model Y will be targeted primarily at the China market, which will require more automation, lower labor cost, and local production (partially by extension).
But, but... BLOCKCHAIN!! ...er, or was that AI?
Democracy is slow...
Meh.
They invest what they have in a measured fashion to realize their plan. If they hit their stride on the Model 3 by the end of Q2, they should generate positive free cash flow at a minimum. At which point, they will likely invest in a ramp-up of the Model Y, which is expected to require an assembly line in China... and consume significant cash.
If I found anything disappointing in their financials, it was the fact that the energy business isn't doing as well as I would hope-- especially on the energy storage side. It looks like the windfarm battery plant in South Australia accounted for 60%+ of that revenue. I guess the other concern is the fact that sales/manufacturing of the S and X will be constrained by availability of the 18650 cells to 100k units.
What you are saying reminds me of the old discussion of the Artistic Method vs the Scientific Method.
The artistic method attempts to solve a problem by coming up with a solution, determining if it provides a solution, and if it does not rejecting it and starting over.
The scientific method attempts to refine its initial solution over many iterations, in order to eventually come up with a solution that works. Only when they hit a point that does not offer any more paths for refinement will they reject the original path.
Intelligence requires a mix of both methods. Algorithms are stuck in the scientific method without a reset button.
Um... I take advantage of Sonos' same terrible, awful, incorrigible security hole all the time, and I am thankful they have them! How else would you control what is playing, adjust volume, configure zones, etc without needing to use the Sonos app that constantly asks to be updated?
I have a mix of Insteon, Hue, Sonos, and some other crap in my home, glued together (technically much more like duct tape) with a Universal Devices ISY994 (and in true Rube-Goldberg fashion, with a Beagle or Pi adding some specific feedback). It lets me use Insteon remotes and switches to change not only lighting but music based on events. It isn't perfect, but boy is it nicer than needing to use a dedicated app for each system and not being able to have things communicate.
Eventually I will upgrade it so the universal remote can do everything rather than relying on Insteon remotes, and fix the Insteon units in fake wall switches for different functions.
Your numbers are off. $3.60/gallon / $0.19/kWh / 0.33kWh/mile = 57 mpg, based on a Tesla Model S in reasonably aggressive driving.
Some level of rent-seeking is good for the economy. Rent-seeking on intangibles is much less defensible than on tangible assets.
Long-term loans aren't the problem either, although the tax deductions on loans becomes complicated quickly. Should a business be able to deduct interest on a capital loan? (Should a tax shelter?)
Capital investment is an important part of the economy, and cutting off access to cash will force the economy to stagnate-- not everything worth doing has a 20-year ROI.
We didn't have much trouble getting money from banks at LIBOR +2%, IIRC. If you can get money that cheap without sharing equity in the growth phase, why would you?
Of course, if all you have is an idea and you are relying on contract manufacturers in China to build it for you you might need a little extra...
I think the real reason IPOs are out of favor is summed up in TFS: the "intangible assets" aren't really worth what they claim. No positive cash flow, no dice.
There was an article (likely here) years ago about cameras with digital signing technology built in in order to satisfy evidence chain of custody requirements for police photographers.
It is odd that these types of features are not available in mass-market devices.
Unfortunately, the investors were not complicit in the crime. Losing everything is wrong, although they should get a big haircut for sure.
What should be done is that they are broken into independent banks on a state-by-state basis (ideally 3-4 different banks in major markets), with the national entity wound down over a few years. All senior executives involved should be banned for life from FDIC insured banks or publicly traded companies.
Yeah... the bastards at WFB did the same crap to me back then. I was stuck with the BS for three years as I was out of the country and couldn't open a new account. Then I opened a credit union account and was quite happy for nearly 15 years.
Now more of my banking is with Chase, as I get private client services due to my business. What a world of a difference!
I was shocked at just how bad the performance of a relatively high-spec'd machine was, and all I was doing was adding a VPN configuration for it. I can't imagine making the performance WORSE!
The classic argument on why an iPad makes a better tablet seems to apply. It reminds me of the first time I considered buying a Fujitsu ultralight notebook. Looks great, really light, crappy battery life, and extremely slow. Add in the fact that you have to buy desktop/laptop software licenses, and they really become a bad investment quickly.
What am I missing here?
Agree... the Memberships should not be $5, but $1million.
Still, creative protest.
I actually had an AutoDesk tech support guy call me back because he was sorry for the bullshit answer he gave for my problem, and proceeded to give me the correct answer and a direct number for Tier 2 support if I had another problem, or needed assistance in configuring. I was shocked!
I complain about the costs, I complain about the unrealistic expectations they sell to our clients, and I complain about the bugs they have never fixed over the past 20-30 years, and I complain about the new things they try to do to realize past promises (unsuccessfully)... but I prefer their software to the alternatives.
The $15k package is a single seat of specialized engineering software. Their annual licensing is about $5k per seat... for a package that has barely seen updates in 15 years.
My annual cost per person is based on a few packages everyone uses, plus a mix of more expensive things with 50% or fewer of staff members having simultaneous access. It is a challenge, because our industry group is typically considered low direct/indirect overhead. With $1k per person added cost, I need to recover about $5 per billable hour to cover it. As a percentage (or total amount), it might not seem like much, but that can become a material percentage of gross margin if you are not careful.
(And sadly, now that I am looking at my number, I realize it must exclude some software that is improperly categorized-- Bluebeam and our accounting per-seat licenses add another $500/person, and there is some software (over $15k total) that must have been charged directly to projects.)
Adobe, MS... they have nothing on AutoDesk at $300/month.
It adds up quickly when you can’t stretch software lives. Thankfully I have a $15k package that is perpetual... and 10 years old.
We pay about $1,000/year per person for software; it starts to get tough.
It depends on what point on the curve you are at in terms of what the best investment is. Without the subsidies, the market would not have accelerated as quickly and profoundly as it did. Just 10 years ago, it was a really big deal to have a building with a 50kW PV array; the subsidies likely cut the time to get where we are now in half.
Personally, I think that has meaningful strategic value.
I grudgingly agree.
At this point, investment in renewables and energy efficiency research are commercially viable, and might not need as much of a government push. Microgrids still need funding and research, but that is much less cutting edge stuff.
As long as the administration doesn't start pushing fossil fuel at the expense of alternative energy, I will live with it.
United (at least) only establishes a delay reactively, and is hesitant to do so until they have a specific reason to do so. You have to start to learn what those reasons are if you want to anticipate real departure times. Aircraft substitutions not related to an inbound flight delay are the hardest one to see as a passenger... but if you see that the inbound flight is anticipated to land 15 minutes after your scheduled departure, you can be pretty sure your flight will not be leaving before 45 minutes after scheduled.
Knowing that a crew member is sick at an outstation, or that earlier delays will force your crew to time out before the flight is much harder to do.
Yup... add in prescription delivery by Amazon and their purchasing power with the Pharma companies just got a lot more powerful.