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Other people's content by Ougarou · 2007-02-01 05:35 · Score: 2, Interesting · on Netvibes May Give My Yahoo Run For Money

Isn't this going to be the same problem as Yahoo showing Wii pictures from flickr on their Wii page? (Also see: http://www.flickr.com/forums/help/32752/ ) If netvibes starts adding advertisements to their page (and they will) they will hopefully get the problems they deserve for layouting other people's content.

Re:Is this a surprise to you, or are you just joki by sponglish · 2007-02-01 05:34 · Score: 3, Interesting · on Congress Hears From Muzzled Scientists

No, we haven't.

Take a look at this graph. There are two set of curves, one comparing the Mann hockey stick to curves showing sunspot activity. The other compares the Moberg 2005 curve to the same sunspot curves.

Here's what I find interesting:

- The Moberg curve (blue curve) follows the Antarctic curve (red) pretty closely, but it tracks almost exactly the same shape as the Greenland curve (green) when it sweeps up in a steep curve in the 20th century.

- The hockey stick curve (orange curve) doesn't do as good a job of tracking with the sunspot curves, in fact it looks like it averaged out the highs and lows (read "MWP" and "LIA") to come up with a relatively smooth shape, but even so, it's still a fair match to the sunspots, especially when it sweeps upward in the 20th Cent.

This can't be coincidental, can it? The obvious conclusion is that the global temps are heavily influenced by sunspot activity. If mankind's pouring of CO2 into the atmosphere was a major influence, the curves wouldn't track together so closely (i.e., the steep upswing would be much greater for the Moberg and Mann temp curves than the sunspots), but that's not the case.

FYI: The sunspot reconstructions I took from Usoskin's millennium-scale sunspot number reconstruction published in the November 2003 issue of Physical Review Letters. There's more current research that was just released, but I can't find the link I had to the PDF. The black GRL curve is from that more recent paper and you can see that it matches the others pretty well.

If the relationships I've drawn are correct, doesn't this strongly imply that the Sun is causing this warming trend?

If you don't think the sunspot curves match closely, it may help to see how poorly the various global temp curves match with each other. Take a look at this Wikipedia graphic combining the global temperature reconstructions from the major players. Looks pretty random to me. The only thing that's given them any credibility is that they all swoop up in the 20th century like they're heading for the moon. And so do the Greenland and GRL sunspot number curves.

Based on that, take another look at the SN curves and then at this one where the curves are overlaid on the Wikipedia graphic.

I'd say the SN curves track better with the global temp reconstructions than many of the wilder global temp curves do. Yet all those curves have been cited by "warmists" as being equally valid (because of that lovely swoop!).

Yup, it's the Sun causing the warming!