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Level 4 on the Torino scale means:

Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devestation. Most likely, new telescoping observations will lead to re-assignment to level 0.

Amateur astronomers, please do your part to reduce the probability of impact by taking new measurements of the asteroid's position every night until the probability of impact is less than 1.0e-06. You can track your collective progress using this chart, which shows the current probability at 1.6e-02.

you can see the animation of it at NASA here

although the java app seems a bit innacurate as it doesn't seem to get close until 2104 for me

...in this 1.3 MB PDF, which includes timelines for both the release and Titan encounter, and some pretty in-depth discussion of the science instruments on Huygens.

According to the http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html#summaryN asa's website, the Diameter is 0.440 km. They have:
"Diameter - This is an estimate, based on the absolute magnitude, and assuming a uniform spherical body with visual albedo pV = 0.154. Since the albedo is rarely well determined the diameter estimate should be considered quite rough, but in most cases will be accurate to within a factor of two."
So, the thing is less than 1/2 a kilometer in diameter, enough to cause a lot of trouble where it hits, but probably not enough to "destroy the earth". There is a crater out in Arizona from an asteroid strike, and that one was probably much smaller. I went in the visitor's center, and they have a big car-sized chunk of it to see and feel. It is solid Iron, and cold to the touch when you put your hand on it.
Also, the Nasa site has the next probable impact date as April 13, 2030, the next year. Both times, the MegaTon energy is given as "2.21e+03". So, this things no joke, and Nasa is providing information ahead of time based on what they know, so we _were_told_about_it_, and should have ducked.

Question: What's on the horizon in terms of future interests?

Answer: Well, I think I will spend a large percentage if not all of my main efforts for the rest of my career on manned-space travel. I think we can, if we do it right, be within 20 to 25 years of being able to visit hotels in orbit and many thousands of people being able to afford to do that. I would like to see affordable travel to the moon before I die, so I am starting relatively soon on developments for orbital-space tourism.


Better get that moonship sorted before Fri 13th April 2029, Burt..

(NEWSFLASH - Asteroid 2004 MN4 is now upgraded to Torino risk scale 4 - highest ever score for any asteroid..)

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

Question: What's on the horizon in terms of future interests?

Answer: Well, I think I will spend a large percentage if not all of my main efforts for the rest of my career on manned-space travel. I think we can, if we do it right, be within 20 to 25 years of being able to visit hotels in orbit and many thousands of people being able to afford to do that. I would like to see affordable travel to the moon before I die, so I am starting relatively soon on developments for orbital-space tourism.


Better get that moonship sorted before Fri 13th April 2029, Burt..

(NEWSFLASH - Asteroid 2004 MN4 is now upgraded to Torino risk scale 4 - highest ever score for any asteroid..)

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

Its now up to 4 on the Torino scale, and the probability of impact is up to 1.6% or 1/63. Thats pretty damn scary considering the extend the damage would be.

The Torino scale for this impact is now rated as a "4"--about 1% chance of hitting us, an upgrade from previous estimations. Still not likely, but now more likely.

According to the NASA odds table, and the Torino scale rating 4, not 2, for that April 13, 2029 impact. Worrisome.

Am I seeing this right?

It looks like it's up to a 4, now.

Use the info from this site over here to make your own doomsday scenario with this chunk of happy fun rock.

It is obvious, the Giant Burnt Conquistador did it.

Oh please, NASA did this 40 years ago

http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status_oppo rtunityAll.html#sol209

The diagnostic images of the rock abrasion tool brought good news with the revelation that there is no longer a pebble jammed between the grind bits! Apparently, sometime after the last previous images of the tool were acquired on sol 200, the pebble fell out, perhaps due to thermal cycling or vehicle motion.

Fell out, my ass! A monthly check-up by the mysterious Martian Service Engineer?

Why is this interesting?

The major exeptions to this are Io and Europa. The major difference here is that the geological activity on these moons is thought to be the result of their proximity to Jupiter and Neptune respectively with the resulting gravitiational "squeeze" the cause.

Why is this interesting?

The major exeptions to this are Io and Europa. The major difference here is that the geological activity on these moons is thought to be the result of their proximity to Jupiter and Neptune respectively with the resulting gravitiational "squeeze" the cause.

The asteroids that are large enough to do damage can be seen far away enough that the cosmic blind spot is irrelevant. The article mentions a 2.9 mile wide asteroid (which would quickly wipe out all life on the planet if it hit) which scientists have known about for years. It won't come anywhere close.

At the moment, we have no defense against a planet-killing asteroid, but the European Space Agency is studying the issue, and NASA's Deep Impact project is also working on it.

Theories abound, but some crazy British supporters insist the Beagle2 is hiding behind a rock in this photo, the last photo taken from the Opportunity rover.

Concur.

There hasn't ever been a shuttle mission which required taking a satellite out of orbit and landing it on earth.

Incorrect. Mission 51-A and mission STS-32 both did exactly that.

There isn't any utility in doing so either.

While I have to wonder about the cost effectivness of bringing a pair of comsats back down for refurbishment and relaunch, the LDEF experiment absolutely REQUIRED that it be brought back down.

Next time, check your facts a little closer, eh?

Concur.

There hasn't ever been a shuttle mission which required taking a satellite out of orbit and landing it on earth.

Incorrect. Mission 51-A and mission STS-32 both did exactly that.

There isn't any utility in doing so either.

While I have to wonder about the cost effectivness of bringing a pair of comsats back down for refurbishment and relaunch, the LDEF experiment absolutely REQUIRED that it be brought back down.

Next time, check your facts a little closer, eh?

Or more likely, dust devils, given how thin mars' atmostphere is:

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap000317.html
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/mars-dust-04b.html
http://www.weathernotebook.org/transcripts/2004/08 /24.php
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/ dust_edgett_010702-1.html

(google has tons more of this stuff)

A dust devil is a basically a minature tornado. Not to be underestimated, the martian variety can make tracks visible from space, as they come in all sizes. It stands well within the realm of possibility that a dust devil (of the smaller variety) just happened to tag the rover and suck the dust off of it.

Its only by scientific prudence that the phenomenon is called a "mystery" at all. We have no real way of proving if this is how it happened, let alone if any other theory is more or less valid. There's simply no data other than the solar cell output before and after (and possibly some photos of the solar array itself). But given the lack of evidence for any other "dust moving phenomenon" on mars, we're left with what we already know about mars: almost no wind and the occasional dust devil.

Yes, it's thinner - about 1% compared to earths sea level. but it has wind never-the-less... Every so often powerfull wind storms powered by the sun on mars pickup so much dust that most of the serface becomes obscured. More info: here

Yeah, GMT is for dorks. I'm all about Zulu time!

Dione will get a very close pass, in october next year, don't know if that feature will be in range though. See the details on the encounters with Saturn's moons (PDF 14 kB). The Saturn tour schedule is interesting too.

Dione will get a very close pass, in october next year, don't know if that feature will be in range though. See the details on the encounters with Saturn's moons (PDF 14 kB). The Saturn tour schedule is interesting too.

Looking at the Dione picture, I'm intrigued by the linear feature near Dione's terminator to the left, crossing a number of craters and irregular fractures on the surface (diagonal orientation, from upper left to lower right). It has an internal shadow on the upper right side suggesting it's some kind of ditch or canyon. Given that Dione's radius is 560 km, this canyon seems to be more than 1 km wide and 100 km long. Could that be a tectonic feature too, or is it the track of a meteorite barely touching Dione's surface instead of impacting? I'm inclined to believe the latter, since it's so straight, but I wonder what such an event might have looked like.

Maybe Cassini will obtain a closer look at this area later. It would be nice to have a 3D model of the terrain, showing elevations.

Start here, pick your resolution (up to 1800x1800 pixels on this one). Go and visit this about every week, too. You'll be glad you did. (-:

Start here, pick your resolution (up to 1800x1800 pixels on this one). Go and visit this about every week, too. You'll be glad you did. (-:

I thought I was the only person who had worked with measuring water vapor with microwave radiometry. The systems I worked with were all satellite based (~28, ~22 and ~37 GHz) and I have to imagine that radiating in these bands at the surface could easily overwhelm the thermal emissions from the surface and atmosphere. See the following for more info: http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/technology/instrumen t.html and http://gfo.bmpcoe.org/Gfo/Mission/missiond.htm

Yes John Young is some old retired *guy*. But he's a reminder of a generation of real acheivers. Forget the awards and look at what he has actually done:

Born in depression era America he graduated from Georgia Tech in Aero class of '52, (for all you pre college persons - it's one of the harder enginering courses), while his armed service combat record only mentions service in Korea on DD-558, Young flew Crusader and Phantom test pilot missions evaluating weapons systems, breaking speed records at 3000 and 25,000 ft. He retired as a Caption after 25 yrs Navy service in '76.

Youngs Nasa career started in '62, flying Gemini 3 missions in '65 with Gus Grissom (remember Grissom, Commander of Apollo 1 which tragically burnt on the PAD), Gemini 10 in '66, CMMP on Apollo 10 in '69 (test run for Apollo 11 in - so thats around the Moon), Apollo 16 in '72 (with Ken Mattingly who missed his ride with Apollo 13 - so he has worked on the lunar surface for his day job), Commander of STS-1 (that the first shuttle flight) in '81, Commander of STS-9 Spacelab in '83. Was backup in Gemini 6, Apollo1, Apollo 7, 13, 17.

In summary 15,000 hrs training, 15100 hrs in flight hours and 835 hrs in 6 space flights.

He's some *retired guy* all right. He is one of only 12 people who have walked, worked and lived on the moon. That give him a unique insight into this area. He has seen how puny Earth is from space and realises how human existance is not something to be taken for granted. You can read more about his bio here.

Yes John Young is some old retired *guy*. But he's a reminder of a generation of real acheivers. Forget the awards and look at what he has actually done:

Born in depression era America he graduated from Georgia Tech in Aero class of '52, (for all you pre college persons - it's one of the harder enginering courses), while his armed service combat record only mentions service in Korea on DD-558, Young flew Crusader and Phantom test pilot missions evaluating weapons systems, breaking speed records at 3000 and 25,000 ft. He retired as a Caption after 25 yrs Navy service in '76.

Youngs Nasa career started in '62, flying Gemini 3 missions in '65 with Gus Grissom (remember Grissom, Commander of Apollo 1 which tragically burnt on the PAD), Gemini 10 in '66, CMMP on Apollo 10 in '69 (test run for Apollo 11 in - so thats around the Moon), Apollo 16 in '72 (with Ken Mattingly who missed his ride with Apollo 13 - so he has worked on the lunar surface for his day job), Commander of STS-1 (that the first shuttle flight) in '81, Commander of STS-9 Spacelab in '83. Was backup in Gemini 6, Apollo1, Apollo 7, 13, 17.

In summary 15,000 hrs training, 15100 hrs in flight hours and 835 hrs in 6 space flights.

He's some *retired guy* all right. He is one of only 12 people who have walked, worked and lived on the moon. That give him a unique insight into this area. He has seen how puny Earth is from space and realises how human existance is not something to be taken for granted. You can read more about his bio here.

Yes John Young is some old retired *guy*. But he's a reminder of a generation of real acheivers. Forget the awards and look at what he has actually done:

Born in depression era America he graduated from Georgia Tech in Aero class of '52, (for all you pre college persons - it's one of the harder enginering courses), while his armed service combat record only mentions service in Korea on DD-558, Young flew Crusader and Phantom test pilot missions evaluating weapons systems, breaking speed records at 3000 and 25,000 ft. He retired as a Caption after 25 yrs Navy service in '76.

Youngs Nasa career started in '62, flying Gemini 3 missions in '65 with Gus Grissom (remember Grissom, Commander of Apollo 1 which tragically burnt on the PAD), Gemini 10 in '66, CMMP on Apollo 10 in '69 (test run for Apollo 11 in - so thats around the Moon), Apollo 16 in '72 (with Ken Mattingly who missed his ride with Apollo 13 - so he has worked on the lunar surface for his day job), Commander of STS-1 (that the first shuttle flight) in '81, Commander of STS-9 Spacelab in '83. Was backup in Gemini 6, Apollo1, Apollo 7, 13, 17.

In summary 15,000 hrs training, 15100 hrs in flight hours and 835 hrs in 6 space flights.

He's some *retired guy* all right. He is one of only 12 people who have walked, worked and lived on the moon. That give him a unique insight into this area. He has seen how puny Earth is from space and realises how human existance is not something to be taken for granted. You can read more about his bio here.

Yes John Young is some old retired *guy*. But he's a reminder of a generation of real acheivers. Forget the awards and look at what he has actually done:

Born in depression era America he graduated from Georgia Tech in Aero class of '52, (for all you pre college persons - it's one of the harder enginering courses), while his armed service combat record only mentions service in Korea on DD-558, Young flew Crusader and Phantom test pilot missions evaluating weapons systems, breaking speed records at 3000 and 25,000 ft. He retired as a Caption after 25 yrs Navy service in '76.

Youngs Nasa career started in '62, flying Gemini 3 missions in '65 with Gus Grissom (remember Grissom, Commander of Apollo 1 which tragically burnt on the PAD), Gemini 10 in '66, CMMP on Apollo 10 in '69 (test run for Apollo 11 in - so thats around the Moon), Apollo 16 in '72 (with Ken Mattingly who missed his ride with Apollo 13 - so he has worked on the lunar surface for his day job), Commander of STS-1 (that the first shuttle flight) in '81, Commander of STS-9 Spacelab in '83. Was backup in Gemini 6, Apollo1, Apollo 7, 13, 17.

In summary 15,000 hrs training, 15100 hrs in flight hours and 835 hrs in 6 space flights.

He's some *retired guy* all right. He is one of only 12 people who have walked, worked and lived on the moon. That give him a unique insight into this area. He has seen how puny Earth is from space and realises how human existance is not something to be taken for granted. You can read more about his bio here.

This page has some of the first pictures of clouds and frost on Mars, likely composed of water ice. It's really quite amazing.

This page has some of the first pictures of clouds and frost on Mars, likely composed of water ice. It's really quite amazing.

This page has some of the first pictures of clouds and frost on Mars, likely composed of water ice. It's really quite amazing.

According to theory, the rings were originally made up of water ice, but over the years they have been bombarded with a lot of other material (rock, I presume) so that they are now quite dirty. A lot of dust has landed on Saturn's moons as well; see for instance Phoebe and Iapetus, the latter showing a nearly black leading hemisphere (imagine pushing a snowball in front of you through an ash cloud for 100 million years).

In other words, what is desperately needed up there is a vacuum cleaner (then we can send the sufficiently cleaned ice on a trajectory towards Mars, to be used for irrigation).

According to theory, the rings were originally made up of water ice, but over the years they have been bombarded with a lot of other material (rock, I presume) so that they are now quite dirty. A lot of dust has landed on Saturn's moons as well; see for instance Phoebe and Iapetus, the latter showing a nearly black leading hemisphere (imagine pushing a snowball in front of you through an ash cloud for 100 million years).

In other words, what is desperately needed up there is a vacuum cleaner (then we can send the sufficiently cleaned ice on a trajectory towards Mars, to be used for irrigation).

According to theory, the rings were originally made up of water ice, but over the years they have been bombarded with a lot of other material (rock, I presume) so that they are now quite dirty. A lot of dust has landed on Saturn's moons as well; see for instance Phoebe and Iapetus, the latter showing a nearly black leading hemisphere (imagine pushing a snowball in front of you through an ash cloud for 100 million years).

In other words, what is desperately needed up there is a vacuum cleaner (then we can send the sufficiently cleaned ice on a trajectory towards Mars, to be used for irrigation).

Hmm, believe an astronaut or believe jdog1016... That's a tough decision.

John Young has a

B.S. in aeronautical engineering with highest honors from Georgia Institute of Technology

while jdog1016 has...?

John Young belongs to

Fellow of the American Astronautical Society (AAS), the Society of Experimental Test Pilots (SETP), and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA)

while jdog1016 belongs to...?

John Young has these special honors

Awarded the Congressional Space Medal of Honor (1981), 3 NASA Distinguished Service Medals, NASA Outstanding Leadership Medal (1992), NASA Exceptional Engineering Achievement Medal (1987), NASA Outstanding Achievement Medal (1994), Navy Astronaut Wings (1965), 2 Navy Distinguished Service Medals, 3 Navy Distinguished Flying Crosses, the Georgia Tech Distinguished Young Alumni Award (1965), Distinguished Service Alumni Award (1972), the Exceptional Engineering Achievement Award (1985), the Academy of Distinguished Engineering Alumni (1994), and the American Astronautical Society Space Flight Award (1993), Distinguished Executive Award (1998), Rotary National Space Achievement Award (2000). Inducted into 6 Aviation and Astronaut Halls of Fame. Recipient of more than 80 other major awards, including 6 honorary doctorate degrees

while jdog1016 has...?

John Young has Navy experience comprising

Upon graduation from Georgia Tech, Young entered the United States Navy. After serving on the west coast destroyer USS LAWS (DD-558) in the Korean War, he was sent to flight training. He was then assigned to Fighter Squadron 103 for 4 years, flying Cougars and Crusaders.

After test pilot training at the U.S. Navy Test Pilot School in 1959, he was assigned to the Naval Air Test Center for 3 years. His test projects included evaluations of the Crusader and Phantom fighter weapons systems. In 1962, he set world time-to-climb records to 3,000-meter and 25,000-meter altitudes in the Phantom. Prior to reporting to NASA, he was maintenance officer of Phantom Fighter Squadron 143. Young retired from the Navy as a Captain in September 1976, after completing 25 years of active military service.

while jdog1016 has...?

Going to John Young's bio and completing the puzzle of who to believe is left as a challenge to the reader.

What if Shumaker Levy 9 had impacted with Earth instead of Jupiter?

Instead of a bruise on its surface, we would be dead.

IANACS (I Am Not A Climate Scientist), but while there are areaa w/ warming trends, there are also some odd cooling trends. Interesting quote from a link below:

Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987.

Some links:

• Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet
• Reason magazine article mentioning various conflicting evidence / dissenting views on global warming.
• SATELLITES SHOW OVERALL INCREASES IN ANTARCTIC SEA ICE COVER

Fun quote from a actual MIT climatologist, Richard S. Lindzen :

the Antarctic is not warming and there is nothing in the models that distinguish the temperature trends they predict in the Arctic from those in the Antarctic.

My favorite quote from the Reason article:

Climate is messy.

Too late. The climate change is already under way. Increased heat waves in Europe, increased hurricane frequency, thinning of ice caps, retreating glaciers. Whether or not this is due to human activity, its happening. Now.

And some slightly older random stories from my bookmarks file.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast07sep_1 .htm?list98953 http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1643000/1643156.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/uk/england/newsi d_1661000/1661560.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1706000/1706823.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1664000/1664887.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/world/americas/n ewsid_1375000/1375089.stm http://www.spacedaily.com/news/early-earth-01k.htm l http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1718000/1718183.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1779000/1779619.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1782000/1782691.stm http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/15jan_gree nhouse.htm?list98953 http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1804000/1804467.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/world/americas/n ewsid_1820000/1820584.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/in_depth/sci_tec h/2002/boston_2002/newsid_1825000/1825283.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1528000/1528348.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1833000/1833902.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1899000/1899150.stm http://www.nationalpost.com/search/story.html?f=/s tories/20020327/463946.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1940000/1940117.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1951000/1951084.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/sci/tech/newsid_ 1993000/1993832.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/world/europe/new sid_2019000/2019349.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/world/americas/n ewsid_2137000/2137205.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/health/2168145.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/europe/2188407.s tm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/asia-pacific/220 2919.stm http://www.whoi.edu/home/about/whatsnew_abruptclim ate.html http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=40977& cid=4354856 http://earth.agu.org/revgeophys/schmit01/node8.htm l http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/2333133.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/2369333.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/2385591.stm http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,69 03,837058,00.html http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=02/11/10/202123 6&mode=nested&tid=134 http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=02/11/1 1/1436214&mode=nested&tid=134 http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-2 161625,00.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/2525041.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/2558319.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/2559633.stm

from the article "The evidence is clear that a major climate change is underway." President George W. Bush disagrees with this. Therefore more study is needed.

Actually- and I know this will annoy the rabid nay-sayers who always post their ill-informed strawmen, non-sequiturs and logical fallacies to these Slashdot stories - a quick Google search will demonstrate that nowadays, even the Dubya regieme accepts that human CO2 emissions are causing climate change, just like the world's climatologists have been saying. They just aren't going to do anything about it.

In other news, a Greenland glacier has dramatically speeded up and is now running more than twice as fast as the current models assume (hint: this is VERY BAD NEWS)

• Radius = 9.45 x Earth
• Mass = 95.2 x Earth
• Computed gravity: M/R^2 = 1.066
• Given gravity: 0.916

Anyway, what I find remarkable is that one's weight is practically the same on so many planets. Only on Jupiter would you feel much heavier, and you need to go to Mars or Mercury before you feel more than 20% lighter. (60% lighter, in fact.)

Don't send it in the form of electricty..send it in the form of radiation energy just like how the Sun provides us energy wirelessly. Even NASA tested a Laser-Powered Aircraft last year.

Interesting, my Googling turned up a value of 1.07 for Saturn here and here, so I assumed that 1.07 was the correct value. Further googling reveals estimates of Saturn's surface gravity ranging from 0.74 to 1.19.

Now they have a frightened public to spend more money on the military industrial complex and space effective weapons systems. WHY? TO PROTECT US FROM AN EXTRATERRESTRIAL THREAT THATS WHY! :D it goes: 3rd world countries, terrorists, asteroids, aliens. All based on lies. all supported by the frightened people. but don't take my word for it. take Werner Von Braun's name instead. actually, don't take anyone's word for anything. ...but don't ignore it either.

actually, i runs a version of the linux kernel

Anyway, it's really a moot point. I only said it because it makes a good sound bite. Surface gravity is not a good measure of the difficulty of leaving a gravity well. Escape velocity is a better measure, and atmospheric drag should probably be factored in too. Besides, the "surface" used for the gas giants is the tops of the clouds, which is really not a meaningful altitude.