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Comments · 7,349
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Re:Any materialized predictions? (Re:Sudden?)
The science is what it is and you can't change that. But a pretty rigorous statistical analysis doesn't show any distinguishable slowdown in the warming trend.
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Re:And most don't care
"Black Lives Matter" isn't simply about the lives of Black people. It is specifically about how Black people are treated by law enforcement and the System in general. It is different from how White people are treated. I don't think that's really controversial. I'm not sure where your statistic about the fresh-off-the-boat African comes from, but he did not grow up in the same environment as the African American. It is about culture, as you say. But you can't critique that culture divorced from the context within which it formed.
Sure, black lives matter, but American blacks really need to clean up their act more than everybody else needs to give them a hand up. By constantly saying it's everybody else's fault, we're reinforcing their ideas about how they themselves deserve the world for free, which is the underlying cause of their problems.
And I can prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, that the police, or even "the white man" are NOT the cause of it all. First, let's start here:
http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/...
Anybody remember the big media shitstorm crying racism when Anthony Stokes was denied a heart transplant because of his long criminal record? Essentially he was given something so profoundly good, which would NEVER be given to a white person in the same situation: Even though the transplant team knew he wouldn't last long post transplant, he got it anyways because they were forced to feel sorry about black history. Not less than 18 months after his transplant, he dies in a criminal rampage after he shot an elderly lady and ran over a pedestrian.
Now, who do we blame for that one? Well, look at the photos he took of himself. He fancied himself a thug, plain and simple. You can tell that's what he wanted to be when he grew up, because he thought it was cool. That is something he learned from black culture, (think like hip-hop music that always glorifies that) not from the white man, not from police.
Now let's look here: https://maggiemcneill.wordpres...
Most call girls, especially black call girls, refuse to take calls from black men. The black call girls indicate the same reason as the white ones, and that reason is very interesting: Black men have a cultural mindset that they are god's gift of masculinity to the world and can just do whatever the hell they want, and are really rough during sex to the point of it being painful, and they also try to short them on money because they have the attitude that they were so good that they get to pay less.
They do often make exceptions for men who don't sound black on the phone, because they say that usually those ones aren't tainted by "black culture" and will actually behave like gentlemen. That and they'll often accept blacks who are current or ex-military (as I myself can attest, the military will take that shit culture out of anybody) or older blacks who tend to have a better sense of humility.
These are the kind of black men who escaped the disaster that is black culture.
As for why a lot of American blacks tend to behave the same way, look here: http://science.slashdot.org/st...
Basically, we as humans are naturally driven to associate with people who look like ourselves. When people tend to stick around one another, they tend to develop similar mannerisms and cultural traits that are different from others. That said, it makes perfect sense why blacks in America would act differently than any other ethnic group in America, and also why they would act different from blacks in other countries (there's a geographical separation.)
That said, very often it occurs that blacks reinforce to themselves that they, as human beings, deserve more than they are given, so they have to take it by whatever means necessary.
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Haters gonna hate (Any materialized predictions?)
its just Mi the Ignorant Bigot
Ah, ad-hominems, they prove everything!
no matter how many times he's proven wrong.
If I really had been, you would've included those link-pairs I asked for — for everyone's benefit... In fact, you would, likely, have linked to the post refuting me on this matter in your signature! But you can't, because it was never done. So far two people tries to answer my challenge and both failed.
About that global cooling theory: One article in Newsweek 40 years ago.
Here is another, just FYI.
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Re:Wrong question
The current condition in the Ukraine is ALL ABOUT Russian expansion.
So what is happening in the Ukraine is PRECISELY the very same "cold war" that has been going on the whole time.
Agreed, it's horrible how Russia has those 700+ military bases around the world... oh, wait, that's us.
Well, maybe this map could be of use:How *dare* they put their country so close to our military bases!
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Re:Good thing climate change isn't real!
I wouldn't say the RWP, MWP or LIA overrode Milankovitch Cycles but were the noise of natural variability on top of them. It's unlikely that the RWP or MWP were warmer than it is now and the increase in temperature leading into them was much slower than the current warming rate.
No one (with any sense) is talking about de-industrializing the West. Instead of spending money on building new fossil fuel power plants we spend it on renewable energy. They may cost a little more to build but they don't have ongoing fuel costs like FF energy. Solar PV is already inexpensive enough and continuing to get cheaper that at least one coal plant has been cancelled because they didn't think they could compete with PV once it was completed. I get called an alarmist but people saying responding to anthropogenic global warming will destroy economies and plunge millions into poverty are also alarmists.
The supposed pause in warming in undetectable when you rigorously analyze it statistically as Grant Foster, a professional statistician, did here. The warming has continued pretty much as expected and temperatures are still within the uncertainty range of IPCC projections.
I think there is plenty of existing evidence to take action right now. If we wait until it's slap you in the face obvious the damages will cost us a lot more than doing something about it.
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Re:North PoleYou are misunderstanding the starting point. The starting point is one mile north of these rings.
The other, less common answer, is that there are an infinite number of places on the Earth, where you would end up at the starting location if you were to travel one mile south, west, then north. And that is anywhere 1.159 miles north of the South Pole. You would travel south for one mile, putting you at
.159 miles north of the South Pole. Then travelling one mile west would cause you to make a complete circle around the South Pole, ending where the westward mile started. Then travel one mile north and that would put you back at your original starting point. -
Re:In other news...
if you are quoting that blog as your "factual" resource, i'd suggest you widen your reading habits to actual scientific reports. try here as a start point https://theotherco2problem.wor...
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Re:Anti drone nonsense
The police have got wise to the terrorist angle and wisely adopted the "think of the children" approach:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news...
"Man held on suspicion of taking indecent images after member of public intervenes to stop children being photographed at Waterloo"
How did they make the leap from "taking pictures" to "taking indecent images". In the bogs that might be possible, but the report says "outside the station".
OK - we don't know what the motives were, but if they were not improper, how is this different to:
http://cdn.scotland.org.uk/ima...
or
https://maggiesscribbles.files...
which are famous in their iconography of the period.
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Re:Oh please
It is the economics of comparative advantage. GM outsources the production of steel to steel mills, after all.
so a company would outsource the design and manufacture of the one feature their customers cared most about? I don't think you'll find many examples of that in history -- at least, examples in which the parent company survived very long.
Well, Dell, Gateway, and HP outsource their operating systems to Microsoft; people seem to care most about the OS on PCs. IBM tried to keep OS in-house, and lost the PC market when Microsoft came out with Windows and they had to compete OS/2+IBM with Windows+Everyone; Apple keeps their OS in-house, yet 7 times more Android phones actually sell into consumer hands, and 8 times as many Android phones ship to stores, while their PC market has always been so marginal that we point out Apple cultists as a special breed of idiot in our society.
Speaking of phones, didn't Nokia and Symbian both go under trying to make their own cell phone OS? Whatever happened to Blackberry's new platform, anyway? Is it just me, or has every cell phone manufacture who tried to make their own phone OS failed dismally in the global market? Apple seems to hold on well in the US, even catching up, even if it's not doing great in the world (Japan hates the iPhone; Android has over 93% market share); the iPhone is just an iPod, or the iPod is just an iPhone, and Apple's real market share is in the digital music industry.
This is how business works. Vertical monopolies are hard to build.
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Re:is there a simple android edit/add client?
Osmand supports editing openstreetmap if you install a plugin, it's not the most convenient way since osmand is supposed to be for navigation. You can also use amenity editor which allows you to add stuff from the webbrowser.
But no, just adding a POI is not something openstreetmap excels at, I guess it's something that is prone to abuse (see Google maps).
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Re:Triticum aestivum spelta
The last time I saw the word "smelt" outside of metallurgy was in The Hobbit.
The English language has been losing its grammatical nuances for a long time, which is why we don't wear shoon on our feet anymore.
Hobbits don't wear shoon (or even shoes) for a different reason: thicker skin on the soles and hair on the rest of the feet. But wouldn't they get infected going barefoot all the time?
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Re:and dog eats tail
$1000M for 9 miles of light rail isn't completely crazy (expensive, but believable). The average cost in the UK is £25M/mile ($40M), but Edinburgh's cost £100M/mile ($156M). A lot of the cost is moving whatever's buried under the road out of the way, to allow future repairs without disrupting the tram.
It's a lot cheaper to build something outside a city on worthless land, whether rail or road.
The 2009 cost per mile for building a 2+2 road in the UK was £13M, for a basic two-lane road £8M. Are you sure your final figure is correct?
(NB the British rail costs will include all appropriate safety systems. This article is interesting. It's over 8 years since a passenger on a train died in Britain, though some have died falling down stairs/escalators, off platforms etc.)
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Re:A poltical agenda?
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Re:Common sense prevails! (Only Partially!)
Disagree.
Both sides are guilty of extremism here.
Vaccines do work. The theory is sound. But the implementation leaves a little to be desired.
It is possible to find kids that get the shots) and then develop an allergic reaction and die. In the past few months Tasha Greige and Rachel French died because of this. Look it up.
The problem is greatly exacerbated by giving tylenol for a fever. Reactions can be severe. We no longer give kids aspirin for a fever because of the neurological damage associated with Reye's Syndrome and there is mounting evidence we should be withholding Tylenol under the same conditions.
I'm pro vax and got my kids jabbed, but recognize the immunization program is a little oversold. Anti vax sentiment gets wrapped up with nuttiness like "it's intentional depopulation". Yeah not so much. It's hard to find objective discourse criticizing it without the sme website offering up that nonsense.
Here's what one guy who has expertise pointed out:
My name is Tetyana Obukhanych. I hold a PhD in Immunology. I am writing this letter in the hope that it will correct several common misperceptions about vaccines in order to help you formulate a fair and balanced understanding that is supported by accepted vaccine theory and new scientific findings.
IPV (inactivated poliovirus vaccine) cannot prevent transmission of poliovirus (see appendix for the scientific study, Item #1). Wild poliovirus has been non-existent in the USA for at least two decades. Even if wild poliovirus were to be re-imported by travel, vaccinating for polio with IPV cannot affect the safety of public spaces. Please note that wild poliovirus eradication is attributed to the use of a different vaccine, OPV or oral poliovirus vaccine. Despite being capable of preventing wild poliovirus transmission, use of OPV was phased out long ago in the USA and replaced with IPV due to safety concerns.
Tetanus is not a contagious disease, but rather acquired from deep-puncture wounds contaminated with C. tetani spores. Vaccinating for tetanus (via the DTaP combination vaccine) cannot alter the safety of public spaces; it is intended to render personal protection only.
While intended to prevent the disease-causing effects of the diphtheria toxin, the diphtheria toxoid vaccine (also contained in the DTaP vaccine) is not designed to prevent colonization and transmission of C. diphtheriae. Vaccinating for diphtheria cannot alter the safety of public spaces; it is likewise intended for personal protection only.
The acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine (the final element of the DTaP combined vaccine), now in use in the USA, replaced the whole cell pertussis vaccine in the late 1990s, which was followed by an unprecedented resurgence of whooping cough. An experiment with deliberate pertussis infection in primates revealed that the aP vaccine is not capable of preventing colonization and transmission of B. pertussis (see appendix for the scientific study, Item #2). The FDA has issued a warning regarding this crucial finding.[1](See more: https://alethonews.wordpress.c...)
A real MD (who is also an attorney) points out ascorbate mitigates the side effects:
http://www.peakenergy.com/arti..."Klenner's paper (Klenner FR. The treatment of poliomyelitis and other virus diseases with vitamin C. J. South. Med. and Surg., 111:210-214, 1949.) on curing 60 cases of polio in the epidemic of 1948 should have changed the way infectious diseases were treated but it did not." - Robert Cathcart
The people telling you there's no problem are The third-leading cause of death in the United States.
Starfield B (July 2000). "Is US health really the best in the world?". JAMA 284 (4): 483–5. doi:10.1001/jama.284.4.483. PMID 10904513.This was edited
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It's false only if true
Betterige's law (aka Hinchliffe's Rule) is neither true, nor false.
Since 1995, it cannot be evaluated, see https://newtonexcelbach.wordpr...
Gödel and Heisenberg would have been proud!
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Re:Common sense prevails! (Only Partially!)
No. The anti-vax movement has been largely driven by greed, stupidity, and the parents need to "blame" someone.
No. The anti-vax movement has been entirely driven by unethical pharmaceutical behemoths killing/maiming thousands of children in third world countries, unloading worthless crap on ignorant asshats and raking in massive unearned profits on the misery of millions.
Glaxo Smith Kline was fined a paltry amount after performing unethical "experiments" on children and killing fourteen of them. Would you trust these jackasses to inject your kids? Hell, their own scientists had to be bribed to cover that shit up. Faked vaccine data lessens confidence in Merck products.
Merck has lied for years about the efficacy of their vaccines. Why would anybody trust them?
Other countries ban defective vaccines, it's not rocket science to shun poisonous garbage that makes your populace sick and decreases productivity for potentially years. MMR vaccine, lookin' at you.
And that's not even counting poor vaccine quality control, a persistent issue for these massive corporations. In that one case Merck got caught before they could offload those 1,000,000 deadly doses on some unfortunates in Africa and collect tax credits for their philanthropy from the IRS.
FFS even the Nigerians are skeptical by now. Looking at the preponderance of shady practices, outright lies and poor quality of your average vaccine peddler it's no wonder the anti-vax movement is gaining momentum. But don't take my word for anything, go get your annual flu vaccine and risk paralysis or worse, and forget about that "immune system" crap the hippies are trying to foist on everybody. Nutrition isn't that important and you have a basement to live in and keyboard crumbs to make. -
Re:Derek Smalls
First and foremost? No, he was an olympic hopeful.
https://bolstablog.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/synchronized-silliness/
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Re:No.
Waterfall just cannot work.
You might want to talk to NASA and tell them all their missions have failed.
1. All the descions are taken at the time you know the least about the outcome, ie at the begining.
You know what that's a sign of? Failure to specify your requirements. (Something Agile people know so little of these days it's unsurprising they should be banned from programming)
2. By the time you get to the end your requirements are out of date, you get the product you wanted at the start of the project not the one you need now.
I need what I specified. If I need something else now, I should have added on more requirements. In fact, at the start of the project I should have added in an allowance that just maybe I will need to change something, or a dependency in the project may shift in time or not meet its capabilities. BTW, for you Agile people, this is where the Project Manager usually does his work. If they're managing which requirement you're coding and how, he's not doing his job.
If you try to support requirement change all you end up doing is replanning and pushing back delivery.,
If I was originally scheduled to make a simple sort in an adequate time period and then need to add in a complex multi-layered sort, um, yeah? What makes you think changed requirements wind up being deliverable in the same time frame? What vacuum do you live in? Are there pink ponies there too?
3. It was a failed methodology from the start, the original paper that started waterfall was an example of how not to write software
https://pragtob.wordpress.com/...
Again, I guess you better let all gov agencies know that all their projects involving software prior to 2005 or so failed. Guess that moon landing really was on a stage somewhere.
Having been exposed to a number of Agile projects that all ran over budget, schedule and/or failed, I can truthfully say Agile itself was the cause. I've detailed some of those elsewhere, and the response from the believers is always "Oh, you're doing it wrong" which is hilarious, because in multiple cases they were following exactly what little is laid out by the Agile camp. The real truth is that there are developers of different skills, and there are some that excel in specific areas while the rest plod along, and they are not interchangeable like Agile states they are unless you're going LCD. In fact, if you estimate your "velocity" by your worst performing programmer on an Agile team, you may, just may, have a realistic estimate of when you'll supposedly get to the finish line as long as no one throws any new requirements your way. As soon as they do, everything you think you know just went away. Sorry, my next SCRUM is pulling me out of this one...
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Re:No.
Waterfall just cannot work.
1. All the descions are taken at the time you know the least about the outcome, ie at the begining.
2. By the time you get to the end your requirements are out of date, you get the product you wanted at the start of the project not the one you need now. If you try to support requirement change all you end up doing is replanning and pushing back delivery.,
3. It was a failed methodology from the start, the original paper that started waterfall was an example of how not to write software
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Re: Is Agile Development a Failing Concept?
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Re:A poltical agenda?
LOL not surprised anyone hides behind AC on this.
The gloom and doomers are notably brittle, the only things they dislike more than unbelievers are unbelievers with legitimate points.If you want empirical evidence of this, just post a list of failed predictions from the warming crowd.
Here's a starter for youhttps://wattsupwiththat.files....
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Antarctica is cooling
"Although previous reports suggest slight recent continental warming, our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000" https://notalotofpeopleknowtha...
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Re:WindOwS X
No, they won the computer wars because of the clones and low prices.
More appreciated was software you purchased three computers ago would still worked.
Up until 2010(?), the intel chips could still run 8086 code, just a few years ago (2010?) IBM nixed the backwardness of it's new chips.
NOTE: Packages that are compiled for i486 architecture, are compatible with i486, i586, i686 & i786 architectures. https://myonlineusb.wordpress....
486: "It represents a fourth generation of binary compatible CPUs since the original 8086 of 1978." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...
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It's the religion of peace ... again
Now expect the usual retards to say how its just coincidence that all three were killed by Muslims and it could just as easily been a member of the mormon tabinacle choir. The thing is its not just three it's thousands and thousands. Maybe the retards should think - if you bet against a coin coming up heads and lost several thousand times in a row isn't it about time you took a closer look at the coin?
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Re:Great. Let's sit here and wait for the next wav
Let the ad hominems begin!
https://nofrakkingconsensus.fi...
“The IPCC was not established – and is not controlled – by science academies. Rather, it is a child of one of the most politically driven bodies known to humanity, the United Nations."
"As a UN entity, the IPCC’s primary purpose isn’t to further scientific knowledge but to provide scientific justification for another UN entity – the 1992 treaty known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)."
"Evidence of this is in plain sight. At a 2008 event celebrating the IPCC’s 20th anniversary, chairman Pachauri told a group of IPCC insiders: “The UNFCCC is our main customer.”"
"Similarly a 2011 presentation by vice chair van Ypersele ends this way: “Conclusion: IPCC is eager to continue serving the UNFCCC process.”"
"An international treaty is a political instrument. This makes it impossible for any reasonable person to conclude that the IPCC is about science for science sake."
"This is science for politics sake.” -
Re:3rd Wave Feminism is causing this.
As long as they're happy, it's not their problem, nor is it yours.
If they were happy, would they have created a "men's rights movement" and spend so much time whining on the internet?
What makes you think that the MRA people are the ones playing WoW 15 hours a day? As far as the article is concerned those students aren't out championing a cause because they are in playing videogames and watching porn.
Here's a photo from one of the massive men's rights demonstrations. Do these guys look happy to you?
https://manboobz.files.wordpre...
I'm afraid those people don't look like the males the article were talking about - FTFA: "an in-depth look into the lives of 20,000 young men". It's even in the summary. We're talking about thousands of young men who get their drives satisfied without needing a female.
The young men referred to in the article (and the summary, perhaps you should read it?) aren't complaining at all, AFAICT. It's society that is complaining that these men are mentally checking out. In which case, my point still stands - the only losers are young women.
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Re:3rd Wave Feminism is causing this.
As long as they're happy, it's not their problem, nor is it yours.
If they were happy, would they have created a "men's rights movement" and spend so much time whining on the internet?
Here's a photo from one of the massive men's rights demonstrations. Do these guys look happy to you?
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Re:Thus showing CO2 is hardly related to warming
Why so scared to admit it has flatlined in the last 18 years?
Even if you are right and its just a pause... IT IS A PAUSE.
Statistically speaking it's not even a pause.
There is no cherry picking, its just an observation. If you start today and go back 18 years 4 months, the trend is DEAD FLAT.
However.... CO2 is most definitely NOT flat.
That argument only makes sense if you're claiming the high temperatures in 1998 were caused by CO2 rather than mostly the most extreme El Nino ever measured. In any rigorous statistical analysis you never start from an extreme point like 1998.
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Short memories, repeated freak out.
May 9, 2013 400 PPM: Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere Reaches Prehistoric Levels
But wait!
May 26, 2014 CO2 concentrations top 400 parts per million throughout northern hemisphere
But this is different! Yes, it's two years late, but it's March of 2015. So that means... What does that mean exactly?
It means that Batman v.s. Superman will be the top-grossing film of 2015! (For July 18th only. From 8PM to 10:30PM. In New Jersey.)
Aside from the hysteria button being pushed enough to have rubbed off the "H" from its now highly polished surface, can we consider two things?
1. There has been a huge uptick in volcanic activity in the first half of this year. Seriously; there's been more eruptions than in any previous year on record, and the year isn't even half-way over. -Aside from the inherent weirdness alarm *that* should set off (in conjunction with solar changes and the continuing rise in comet activity), can we please pause to wonder if maybe all that extra ash in the atmosphere might possibly be related?
No? Of course not. Check out the level of spin required to make the problem of too many exploding mountains go away. https://earthtrembling.wordpre...
Bravo. That's insane.
But who am I to get in the way somebody's well-crafted delusions?
Nevermind.
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Re:Thus showing CO2 is hardly related to warming
Warming is obviously a lot more complex than CO2 levels, because warming has continued to basically flatline as it has for decades now.
You can only say that if you only look at the atmosphere and cherry pick the extremely hot year of 1998 (that was 2 sigmas above the temperature curve). As I calculated above if all of the heat that accumulated in the oceans between 2003 and 2012 were in the atmosphere instead we would have had over 16 degrees Celsius of temperature rise.
Not only that but if you do a statistical analysis of surface temperatures it's not possible to even show there's even been a slowdown in temperature rise. Tamino, a statistician by trade tried a number of different methods to show a slowdown statistically and failed. You can read about it here.
There is obviously plenty of complexity in the system but the underlying accumulation of heat energy continues unabated.
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Re:All aboard the FAIL trainAcademics is too abstract. The president is the CEO of the country
This is wrong on so many levels. See this article by Paul Krugman.
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Re:Single shop most likely
Daz loader. All anyone ever needs. I've slic modded my share of BIOSes too, but ever since EFI it's just less hassle to use the loader, and it works 100% of the time.
Daz Loader is good, but it does not support UEFI installations, because of the GPT partition format.
What comes to OEM installations, with some trickery there is also a possibility to feed the BIOS SLIC key to Windows Software Licensing Management Tool. This allows to install without an OEM-specific installation media, and it's also legal as you're using the legitimate key from the sticker.
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Re:Systemd and Gnome3 == no thanks
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David Goldfield’s Home on the Web ..
"Select the following link to learn more about the Philadelphia Computer Users’ Group for the Blind and Visually Impaired" ref
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Re:EPA has exceeded safe limits, needs curbing
There are still several figures in Chapter 6 so I'm still not sure what you're talking about. But rather than talking about one specific area in that book wouldn't it be better to consider all of the different observations as a whole?
No, I definitely mean statistically speaking. Tamino is a statistician by trade and as he shows in his post the "pause" is meaningless statistically. Perhaps you'd like to try and present evidence to the contrary.
It's true that the rate of warming over the past 15 years is a bit slower than it was during the 1980's and 1990's particularly in the atmosphere. But the ocean where over 90% of the heat energy goes anyway continue to warm. Don't you think it's reasonable that scientists should investigate why that is true? The more we learn the better our understanding will be.
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Re:EPA has exceeded safe limits, needs curbing
While there may be some in the scientific world who dislike Mann several investigations of him have not turned up any damning evidence of wrongdoing.
The studies in question didn't attempt to interact with the damning evidence from the emails, in fact they carefully avoided addressing it.
Regarding similar studies confirming Mann's hockey stick graph here are some:
Here's a book from the National Academies of Science with more details:
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
If you throw out data from measurements are not known to be reliable proxies for global temperature, you are left with very little if anything; and certainly not with a thousand year hockey stick shape. The hockey stick is an artifact of cherry picking data. There are many reasons for an upswing in various physical measurements in the 20th century, including (yes) a warming temperature as we swing up from a low point on the multi-century scale, but also modern agriculture and its effects on things like tree growth.
Case in point, take Figure 6 -- the proxies seem to show a dip which we'd identify as the Little Ice Age of ca. 1300-1870. Not much else is obvious there, except the somewhat misleading superimposition of the instrumental record. It's not really fair to slap instrumental readings on the end of the proxies, since even assuming these proxies reflect global temperature in some way (big assumption), they will flatten out upswings like the instrumental record shows in the late 20th century.It's true that water vapor is responsible for the largest chunk of greenhouse warming but it is not a greenhouse gas that can drive warming because the amount of WV in the atmosphere is strictly limited by temperature (and regionally the availability of water to evaporate). The level of WV is not something humans can have any significant direct effect on therefore it is not something to worry about.
Water vapor's status as the number one greenhouse gas makes it a hard problem because of the water cycle. What is the effect of cloud cover? How is the water cycle affected by more CO2? These are the billion dollar questions.
The "Pause" is not something that is statistically significant. Here is a statistical analysis that uses several different techniques to try and find some significance to the "Pause" but fails. There is no reason statistically to say the rate of warming since the 1970's has changed significantly.
The Pause has shown that the most highly vaunted predictions of carbon sensitivity were mistaken. What we do with that from here is a tricky question. Simply changing the fudge factors for aerosol albedo to keep our predictions "accurate" is a pretty lame response (Mann's, if you hadn't guessed).
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Re:EPA has exceeded safe limits, needs curbing
While there may be some in the scientific world who dislike Mann several investigations of him have not turned up any damning evidence of wrongdoing.
Regarding similar studies confirming Mann's hockey stick graph here are some:
Here's a book from the National Academies of Science with more details:
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
It's true that water vapor is responsible for the largest chunk of greenhouse warming but it is not a greenhouse gas that can drive warming because the amount of WV in the atmosphere is strictly limited by temperature (and regionally the availability of water to evaporate). The level of WV is not something humans can have any significant direct effect on therefore it is not something to worry about.
The "Pause" is not something that is statistically significant. Here is a statistical analysis that uses several different techniques to try and find some significance to the "Pause" but fails. There is no reason statistically to say the rate of warming since the 1970's has changed significantly.
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Re: AOL exists and innovates
AOL was once the largest site on the Internet. They were doing scalability before Microsoft invented the word. Under Michael Manos, they've been doing really innovative stuff like a lights-out, zero employee datacenter [1] and the recent micro-datacenter [2]. Their stuff is highly efficient, maintenance is scheduled in least costly way, and it mostly manages itself. Most of the "modern," "cutting-edge," "sophisticated" companies on Y Combinator's hiring page can't say the same about their infrastructure. Funniest part is that, despite all the case studies on highscalability.com etc, so many of them are still "trying to figure out" how they'll scale the exact same kind of apps. IT industry rarely learns from its successes or mistakes: keeps reinventing the wheel instead. AOL's old school approach just identifies the problem, applies a solution that works, invents one otherwise, and moves on to getting business done. The one thing to emulate, other than cool, datacenter design.
:)[1] https://loosebolts.wordpress.c...
[2] http://www.zdnet.com/article/a...!
Nick P, Security Engineer/Researcher
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Re:Gamechanger
It's a band-aid that perhaps you can afford and are willing to pay, but that doesn't mean you aren't overpaying for it.
You are way too worried about "overpaying." Your concern is noted and taken under advisement.
But I need the godamned power. I have the money to pay for the power. It helps me maintain a healthy standard of living, and sometimes keeps me alive. If that is not something you can understand, then you are either interllectually challenged, or just one more Slashdot troll.
No one expects the freak windstorm/snowstorm/icestorm. But they happen, and have been happening with increasing frequency. If you know the secret to keeping this from happening: https://canadaalive.wordpress....
You need to get in touch with the power companies right away, you'll be a national hero.
And spare me the old "Move to California" meme. California has nice weather, but the only way we can stuff people into that desert is by California stealing everyone elses water, using it all up, and then demanding more. California's time is coming.
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Re:Never a good idea
Actually, the IPCC models have been very good at predicting the changes.
- IPCC model global warming projections have done much better than you think
- Contrary To Contrarian Claims, IPCC Temperature Projections Have Been Exceptionally Accurate
- Models successfully reproduce global temperature since 1900.
- Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change
- New Paper “Validation And Forecasting Accuracy In Models Of Climate Change” By Fildes and Kourentzes
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Hawaii = corner case
You are correct in the corner-case that is Hawaii.
In New England, however, our local grid operator (ISO-NE) has not even attempted to implement the most basic technology to even see solar's effect on the grid.
Yet our local electric utilities such as National Grid are trying to neuter residental solar because of its "effects on the grid"
In other words, they haven't even tried to be pro-active about potential problems before they launched a war on solar. It is all about the situation at-hand. For example, yes, driving could kill you however if you drive drunk with your hands tied behind your back whose fault is that? Do we ban driving or fix the problems?
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Hawaii = corner case
You are correct in the corner-case that is Hawaii.
In New England, however, our local grid operator (ISO-NE) has not even attempted to implement the most basic technology to even see solar's effect on the grid.
Yet our local electric utilities such as National Grid are trying to neuter residental solar because of its "effects on the grid"
In other words, they haven't even tried to be pro-active about potential problems before they launched a war on solar. It is all about the situation at-hand. For example, yes, driving could kill you however if you drive drunk with your hands tied behind your back whose fault is that? Do we ban driving or fix the problems?
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Re:Most people don't understand the debate.
danbob999 will reply that the dog ate his homework... or not.
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Re:Used to work at an immigration firm
And what would you have him do my friend? With all those would would have the power to act upon all neatly bought and paid for? It has been an open secret for a long time that H1-B not about importing talent but a means to depress the market wages for a long time now. Yet suddenly his coming forward would break the tide? Please, the powers that be have been and will continue to sell the US public down the river just to get another coin in their pocket.
You want change? Don't berate someone working a low level slot when shit started happening way above his pay grade and he had no one to turn to. Start looking at real solutions, like better representation from our elected officials. Course most of those are bought and paid for too so we are all supremely fucked.
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Re:The real question here
Why wouldn't real-time stats on what people on the internet are talking about be worth some major buckage?
http://msti.files.wordpress.co...
You just blew my mind. I was one of those thinking why twitter was valued so high, what kind of value is in "poop tweets" or "breakfast tweets", but it's also "I saw this ad, or a friend told me about this product" It's like instant market research.
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Re:Confused much?
Yes you are quoting the instrumental record which is adjusted, and even so 2014 was only
.03 degrees warming, THEY THINK. Here are the satellite records. https://bobtisdale.files.wordp... just because you start your record as a cherry picked low temperature to include the positive PDO phase warming from 79-98 does not mean that there has been warming since 1998, there HAS NOT been. Even by your instrumental record NASA admits the warming since 1998 is NOT statically significant. To put it another way, the "warming" is well within the margin of error of the data set. -
Re:Most people don't understand the debate.
Once again you've provided no scientific proof or observational data. What we have here is an appeal to authority. Next you will tell me about the consensus. SCIENCE is NOT consensus. Here is my scientific data for you. Two data sets no warming. https://bobtisdale.files.wordp...
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Re:Confused much?
Satellites do not show that, and they are more accurate SCIENTIFICALLY.
On the contrary, measuring surface temperature from a satellite is notoriously hard, and requires a great deal of manipulation and modelling to produce a useful result.
As far as the warming trend stopping or slowing down.... it didn't:
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2... -
Re:Artists don't make money from music sales.
agree, wish I had mod points. https://musicbusinessresearch.... http://www.hypebot.com/hypebot... http://money.futureofmusic.org...
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Re:The study was flawed
I think it's important to ask questions because there's been literally "dozens" of different things "definitively linked" with CCD. The public likes to seize on neonicotinoids, but they're probably one of the least supported of these many different "definitively linked" reasons. Whole countries have gone so far as to outright ban neonicotinoids, with no effect on CCD. France, for example, banned them. The next year they largely switched to blaming the condition on Asian Hornets when the decline rates didn't decrease.
The problem is that when you ban a certain pesticide, people start using others. And going from neonicotinoids to organophosphates is a massive step backwards in terms of general safety, not just to pollinators, but especially to more complex animals as well. But the biggest problem with the neonicotinoid theory is that neonicotinoids are only used in a small fraction of the areas where CCD exists. Bees can only fly several kilometers from the hive, they're not going cross-country and picking up every pesticide in every farmer's arsenal. It even exists among people who are in places where no pesticides at all are used.
It's easy for the general public to latch onto a particular cause. But once you learn more about beekeeping you realize how incredibly much out there is that can utterly f* up a hive. And which have in history regularly collapsed bee populations, far worse than the collapses we have today. Trachael mites once nearly obliterated beekeeping in Europe, saved mainly by the development of the Buckfast bee. Check out this very inexhaustive list of bee pests and diseases. There's even some really counterintuitive effects in that small levels of some pesticides can actually increase hive survival rates, in that they're deadlier to bee pests like mites than to the bees themselves.
The public also tends to totally understand colony collapse disorder in the first place. Normal winter colony death levels are about 15% in most locations (though where I am it's higher). CCD raised the US average to about 30% at its peak. This is painful and expensive to beekeepers, but it has literally no impact on the ability to sustain bee populations. A new beehive can be started with just a queen and a handful of workers. Hives can be made to produce queens en masse through proper management. Hence people can mail order starter hives, and there's never going to be a threat to the ability to produce these starter hives - a single hive can make many dozens per year. Even normal hives not managed for breeding starter hives will naturally produce several swarms every year; beekeepers try to discourage and/or catch these swarms.
In all likelihood, neonicotinoids are one among many different stressors to bees in the modern era that causes CCD. Modern bees are much more "stressed" than bees in the past. We've created an environment where new bee pests and diseases have spread far and wide to bees that never would have encountered them in the wild. We raise them on corn syrup and sugar water in the winter (good for reducing dysintery and increasing honey yields, but robbing them of certain vitamins and minerals). We transport them on flatbed trucks hundreds or thousands of kilometers (these are animals that get confused if you move their hive a couple meters; their ability to navigate by sight is poor, they're best navigating by the sun and dead reckoning). And countless varieties of poisons, even unintentional ones, affect them every day of their lives. There's so many factors now that weaken hives that any "new" factor to an area can push them over the edge.