Can China Pull An India?

ricst writes: "The New York Times has a story about how China is trying to leap ahead of India as the world's second-largest producer of software. Apparently the Chinese are trying to learn everything they can from the Indian software developers. It's not clear that if China becomes a strong competitor to India that 'jobs will be lost or simply not created' in the U.S. My guess is that the most creative software opportunities will remain in the US for some time, and the more routine development efforts will continue to be transfered overseas."

Comments

Wait

[Jennifer Ever]

Don't mundane jobs usually lead to more creative ones? Where's the talent pool come from?

Re:Wait

[nomadic]

No, mundane jobs usually lead to more mundane jobs.

Re:Wait

[Jennifer Ever]

Yeah, I phrased that wrong. What I mean is, I doubt most people get their first programming jobs on the "creative" software development expected to stay in the US. Likewise, I imagine most of the people working on creative development are drawn from the pool of people working on routine development. So with routine development shipped overseas, there'll be a greater talent pool there, and it would surprise me if some of those people don't tackle the more exotic development efforts supposedly be left to American programmers. This isn't meant as any sort of demagoguery, I'm just speculating on what may happen.

Kudos to China

[ergo98]

I have no problem with China, India, or any other nation for that matter, taking part in the global economy (i.e. I'm not isolationalist), and if they produce great software then that's superb. Having said that I _DO_ have a problem with nations that steal jobs away from other countries without providing them: i.e. If Chinese only buy products from China, and they counterfeit all the software from the US, then I have a massive problem with that. Personally, given the counterfeiting nature of IP in China there is absolutely no way at this juncture that I would trust it as a nation to contract software development out to.

Re:Kudos to China

[jfonseca]

Ralph, that is globalization, and that is why italians die protesting on the streets, that is why everywhere the G8 meet there are protests...because german workers have to be dumped by cheap taiwanese labor, why do american programmers have to compete with cheap indian and asian labor, why do 90% of Nike shoes come from asia?

But globalization is here to stay, the little producer of oranges in Florida will have to compete with the little guy from Brazil. And so the cycle goes, in the end I believe everyone gets cheaper, higher quality end products!

Americans will lose territory just like everyone else will, but the global competition will lead to high quality products and lots of advances in science, tech and even peace!

Think about it, a future where everyone has a slice of the pie. Not only germans or americans or japanese. Everyone.

Re:Kudos to China

[ergo98]

I agree, and I disagree. :-) I agree that many of these arrangements are basically a form of slave labour. Having said that there have been people crying the "we're going to hell with all our jobs leaving" mantra for many decades as the third-world industrializes, yet the US standard of living continues to edge upwards. While in the short term it might look like a job going overseas, that's putting $ in the hands of someone who often send it right back to buy American goods and products. That was the reason behind my comment about returning the favour: If the Chinese feel it's okay to pirate software and to act protectionist, then let the duties roll and let them reap what they sow. However if they're partners in prosperity then that's good for all.

On top of all of that the myth of overseas cheapness often slaps shortsighted CEOs in the ass: Hundreds of companies migrated to Mexico (again the prosperity of Mexico is good for all of North America), only to find that horrible education, low work productivity and ethics, horrible health care, widespread corruption and crime, etc, made it much MORE expensive, and they promptly moved back. I've read countless stories now about wonderous dreams of contracting software to Indian firms that have gone horribly awry. It's never as straightforward as "trying to beat down the working man" management types try to make it out to be.

Re:Kudos to China

[dragons_flight]

Which is exactly why we ought to be looking to raise the standard of living in other countries, and overturn US monetary policy that artifically keeps the dollar capable of buying so much more overseas than it does here.

Why won't it happen? Because the corporations like the cheap labor markets. The people in those foriegn markets typically like the job opportunities, even at what you consider a paltry salary. And, the US population would almost certainly have to accept certain losses in order for outside standard of living to reach a parity level.

Instead you'd rather make it harder for the rest of the world to do business with the US by assessing various tariffs and fees. So some day the other 90% of the world will wake and realize they don't need the US anymore.

Re:Kudos to China

[GregWebb]

(Very likely a troll but I've seen this opinion legitimately expressed often enough to bite just in case someone's agreeing with it)

Think about this one a little more. Think supply and demand here.

If we end up with the entire US knowledge worker class being made unemployed due to the outsourcing of their work to India / China etc. then, by very definition, two things will happen:

1) US cost of doing such work will drop, due to increased supply against demand. Some workers will therefore leave this industry and move elsewhere.

2) US economic value as a whole goes down. So, along with it, down come land prices (lower demand for a fixed resource) so down come prices (lower rents / mortgages) so down comes the cost of living.

Now, think about the situation with all those outsourced workers in India. You get the exact reverse - people start to train in an industry as they see that jobs are available, which increases the pool of knowledge workers and jobs as a whole which increases the total economic value. So, the total spending power avaiable for fixed resources goes up, at which point the price of those fixed resources follows it. Which sends the cost of living and the cost of doing business up, too.

In other words, it's not the nightmare that you think it is, simply as market forces mean that the more you do this, the less the advantage of doing it is.

The other side, of course, is that the US - or anywhere else in the world for that matter, sitting in the nearly-as-rich UK, most definitely does not have an automatic right to be massively richer than the rest of the world. Why should I have money and opportunities just because I was lucky enough to be born in the UK, when the many thousands born at the same moment in less privelidged (sp?) parts of the world don't? Also, shouldn't I remember that a major source of hatred and violence is poverty and so by enforcing a situation where my country is richer, I'm only making it more likely that the poor people will try and knock my country down?

Be realistic - but also be reasonable. Poverty isn't nice, but if they can use poverty to give them a competitive advantage and haul themselves out then more power to them.

Re:Kudos to China

[jvonk]

If you are contracting your business to an illegitimate firm (in any country), the results received are your just desserts.

It seems absurd to correlate the actions of individuals to state-sponsored jurisprudence. China is a member of WIPO, which corroborates the idea that widespread piracy is not condoned by the legal system. Considering recent raids by government agencies in China to shut down major manufacturers/distributors of illegitimate software, the Chinese government may beg to differ with your opinion that Chinese corporations are pirates as well.

The rather xenophobic nature and sweeping generalizations of your statement will not be addressed other than noting they are logical fallacies.

You are entitled to your view of zero-sum economics (in order for one state to "win", another state must "lose"). However, most of the free world started to abandon this as a fundamental tenet in the late 18th century. This has led to the disavowal of mercantilism, imperialism, and colonial exploitation witnessed in the modern era. The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith is the both the initial and seminal explanation of this concept.

Please do not be confused: my point is not encourage or discourage outsourcing development to China--I would merely like to see cogent arguments tendered in the debate rather than mere FUD.

Re:Kudos to China

[alen]

Globalization is actually very good. As the cost of goods drops people have more disposable income. In fact in the last few decades industries that thrive on disposable income have boomed. There are more jobs created in other areas to make up for those lost. Whoever said that you have a right to work in what you choose. Sometimes things don't work out and you have to get other skills and change careers.

Re:Kudos to China

[H310iSe]

OK while everyone talks about how this is one facet of globalism and mention maybe we should be in italy protesting the g8 why has no-one, thusfar, mentioned this might be a wake up call for labor organization here? We in technology no longer own the golden goose, and it's going to continue to get worse (longer hours, less benefits, less than zero job security)

Personally I don't like modern labor unions at all - as far as I can tell they left their usefullness back in the industrial revolution, but we must find some model of labor organization that works for us or else pretty soon tech work will have all the status, pay, and benefits of other technical areas which compete w/ foreign labor (i.e. not plumming, which must happen at the site of the plumming, but rather think steel, autos, etc.).

just IMHO

Re:Kudos to China

[smallpaul]

Which is exactly why we ought to be looking to raise the standard of living in other countries, and overturn US monetary policy that artifically keeps the dollar capable of buying so much more overseas than it does here.

What does that mean? Let's step away from dollars for a second. If you take an ounce of gold it can buy much more (in terms of real estate, labour or most material products) in a poor country than in a rich company. Why wouldn't the same be true for dollars?

Why won't it happen? Because the corporations like the cheap labor markets. The people in those foriegn markets typically like the job opportunities, even at what you consider a paltry salary.

Sounds win-win!

And, the US population would almost certainly have to accept certain losses in order for outside standard of living to reach a parity level.

Why? When Japan and Germany got rich in the fifties and sixties, did that make the US poor?

Instead you'd rather make it harder for the rest of the world to do business with the US by assessing various tariffs and fees. So some day the other 90% of the world will wake and realize they don't need the US anymore.

I agree that tarrifs would be a mistake! It is also odd that the original poster talks about "duties in other industries." Duties are falling away left and right through WTO, NAFTA and other treaties.

Re:Kudos to China

[Alex Belits]

What does that mean? Let's step away from dollars for a second. If you take an ounce of gold it can buy much more (in terms of real estate, labour or most material products) in a poor country than in a rich company.

Probably because gold currently has almost no value by itself -- in most of countries its very limited local use in electronics and jewelry can't justify its price, therefore the price of gold itself is tied to the common currency, that happens to be a dollar.

If one will use some more usable way to measure the price (say, land located in similar conditions) it would become apparent that dollar as internal currency of US and dollar as an international currency have completely different value. This difference in value can be decreased if true globalization taken place -- when consumers and procucers globally could trade with reduced barriers. However what is called "globalization" now is globalization for large corporations plus isolationism for everyone else -- a large company can choose in what country it wants to produce something, a small company usually has much less choice, and most of individuals have absolutely no choice, in what country to work.

Of course, if people will more freely move between countries, dollar will cease being split to dollar-in-US and dollar-outside-US, and Americans will lose this advantage. However that also will mean that other countries will finally get a chance to improve their economy without having to use overpriced US currency for international transactions, what now simply sucks products into US under inadequate prices, thus suffocating the development of true global economy.

Re:Kudos to China

[smallpaul]

Probably because gold currently has almost no value by itself -- in most of countries its very limited local use in electronics and jewelry can't justify its price, therefore the price of gold itself is tied to the common currency, that happens to be a dollar.

You don't have to use gold then. Use steel or oil or whatever. A hunk of steel will buy you more land or labour in sub-saharan Africa than it will in America. So what?

If one will use some more usable way to measure the price (say, land located in similar conditions)

What are "similar conditions?" Is an apartment in Midtown worth the same as one in Los Angelos? Land is a poor currency precisely because it is immobile. Oil is a better one.

it would become apparent that dollar as internal currency of US and dollar as an international currency have completely different value.

That is not true at all. If you convert the dollar to oil, or gold, or steel at wholesale prices in the US, you will get roughly the same amount as you would get if you did the same thing across the border in Mexico or Canada. Of course there will be difference in prices in many things, such as food and housing. But there are massive differences in the cost of living even within the United States.

If there were a large difference in the value of a dollar "within" the US versus "outside" of the US then there would be a massive amount of currency moving from the place where it was valued to where it was not. People would move the dollar, buy some goods and then import or export the goods. This is in fact what happens in countries where the official external value for a dollar is different than the internal value.

Re:Kudos to China

[Alex Belits]

If there were a large difference in the value of a dollar "within" the US versus "outside" of the US then there would be a massive amount of currency moving from the place where it was valued to where it was not. People would move the dollar, buy some goods and then import or export the goods. This is in fact what happens in countries where the official external value for a dollar is different than the internal value.

And this does not happen precisely because the monopoly for "globalization" owned by large corporations (who do exactly what you have described) is protected by isolationism for everyone else.

Re:Kudos to China

[smallpaul]

And this does not happen precisely because the monopoly for "globalization" owned by large corporations (who do exactly what you have described) is protected by isolationism for everyone else.

Anybody can set up an import/export company!

Re:Kudos to China

[Alex Belits]

Not everybody can set oversea production, or move to another country to work.

Remote engineers...

[Pengo]

Just like Dilberts company had their secret Albonians, our company had Romanians.

Our company did it for two years, and for a good reason we don't do it anymore. Not that there is no good work that comes out of it.. it was just a nightmare to manage. Our software is not one that can just be packaged and shipped, but was an ASP (Java) that requires constant work and modifications for new customers.

I suppose with something like Windows applications it might be easier to outsource, but web based applications it was a managment nightmare and ended up just not working.

I will not go into the differences of culture and work ethic or the irritations due to time zone differences.

Re:Remote engineers...

[11thangel]

sp, it was Elbonians, not Albonians. And they weren't secret, they bought out the company after they made a fortune selling the mud that was their country as a cosmetic product. Or am I the only one geeky enough to remember that strip?

Re:Remote engineers...

[ppetru]

Being a romanian myself, I feel obliged to add the fact that this is a generic issue with telecommuting: there are certain kinds of work which simply don't fit in, no matter if the team is romanian or indian or chinese or whatever.

On the other hand, if you have good management, outsourcing can be a godsend, for a couple reasons:

• It can be cheaper
• It allows easier access to otherwise rare or expensive talent or expertise
• If there's a time zone difference, you can turn that to your advantage and literally work around the clock
• The culture difference can be an advantage too: different ways of thinking lead to a bigger pool of ideas, and generally results in tighter code/design discipline.

(none of the above depend on each other).

In conclusion, I think there's a general misconception about outsourcing, caused by the false assumption that cheaper always means worse. Sure, you get what you deserve if you hire a-dime-a-dozen {romanians,indians,chinese,whatever}, but there are also good people out there, and they are way cheaper than the US counterparts. You can have a top romanian programmers for around $1000-1500 and I can assure you they'll be sharp even by the most demanding standards.

Re:Remote engineers...

[nomadic]

In conclusion, I think there's a general misconception about outsourcing, caused by the false assumption that cheaper always means worse.

Actually I don't think that's true at all. There seems to be a belief among some US IT managers that overseas programmers are not only cheaper but better. I think it may be a result of either the rampant belief here that our educational system cannot produce first-rate technologists (wrong of course), or that foreign programmers are by necessity more single-minded and eager to put in those long hours (again, not necessarily true, it comes down to the individual).

Re:Remote engineers...

[gaspyy]

I agree with Petru. I'm also a Romanian myself and project manager for a local company. We've worked for the past 5 years with companies from US, UK and Germany (big ones, including Oracle and IBM).

Outsourcing can work like a charm, but it takes a good manager. The starter of this thread mentioned a few things that caught my eye:
- "work ethic": like everywhere, there are honest and dedicated people who will work closely with you, respect deadlines, etc. and there are those looking only for a quick buck. It's your job to determine very early if your partners are to be trusted;
- "cultural differences": not that big are you might think. As long as there's a mutual respect, there's no problem. You can use that to your advantage (fresh ideas and perspective).

And we do deliver web based solutions (ColdFusion & Java) tailored for individual customers, so this can work too.

Finally, I don't want to strike anyone's ego, but the concept that "creativity = US", "implementation = overseas" is wrong.

Re:Remote engineers...

[John Harrison]

There seems to be a belief among some US IT managers that overseas programmers are not only cheaper but better.

Or maybe managers feel that overseas programmers simply do EXACTLY what they're told without rasing any issues or worrying if including certain "features" makes sense. Overseas programmers make them feel smarter by giving them what they ask for instead of pointing out that what they are asking for is really what they want.

Slashdot - Asian Edition ?

[roguerez]

After looking at the latest three articles I would think I loaded slashdot.org.tw or something instead of just Slashdot.org.. ;)

Depends on the perspective

[Anonymous Coward]

My guess is that the most creative software opportunities will remain in the US for some time, and the more routine development efforts will continue to be transfered overseas.

Large companies will do this, certainly. But one doesn't have to work for a large company. One
really shouldn't work for a large company, period.
Becomming downright nasty, bloodthirsty entities,
they are.

This may be the year I start my own business.
After watching Enron steal it's employees retirement
money, and other things, I don't think I ever want
to work for someone else again.

There's a lot to be said for self reliance folks. Makes
you strong. Screw the big companies, they don't give
a fuck about you. Don't work for them, do your own thing.

Re:Depends on the perspective

[Happy go Lucky]

There's a lot to be said for self reliance folks. Makes you strong. Screw the big companies, they don't give a fuck about you. Don't work for them, do your own thing.

That may be a little extreme. They do control a nice chunk of the money floating around that's gonna end up in paychecks.

Someone back in the 1980's had a saying: "Trust, but verify." That was really a polite way of saying "Work with them, but don't trust them." If they're handing out the money, then take it, but don't believe anything they say unless you get it in writing.

And then get yourself a copy of M.G. Kains' "Five Acres and Independence" and the phone number of your county agent. If your company is going to be as helpful to you as Enron was to their retirees, then you'll want the subscriptions to Mother Earth News and Backwoods Home and all the other hippy/survivalist magazines. And I thought about suggesting the misc.survivalism usenet group, except the signal-to-noise ratio there is arguably the worst on usenet.

If you can brew your own beer, you don't have to drink Coor's. If you can bake your own bread, you'll be a lot healthier than the folks who eat WonderBread (and you can screw up the baking royally and still have better-tasting bread than most supermarkets) If you chop your own firewood, you'll be twice-warmed. If you lift weights, you won't have to call your cousins every time your girlfriend wants to rearrange the furniture. And so forth.

But that's indulging a pet theory of mine: The less-dependant you are on other people, the happier you'll be. And it's easier to deal with other people when you're not so dependent on them: you don't resent them for controlling you, they don't resent you for needing them for everything, and as a result everybody's blood pressure drops about ten points.

Just like any other industry...

[psxndc]

My guess is that the most creative software opportunities will remain in the US for some time, and the more routine development efforts will continue to be transfered overseas

It's like this with most industries, why not software? Levi's designs jeans here and gets poor workers in taiwan to make them in sweatshops. I'm not saying it's right, it's not, but that's the way American companies do business and make a profit.

psxndc

Re:Just like any other industry...

[smallpaul]

It's like this with most industries, why not software? Levi's designs jeans here and gets poor workers in taiwan to make them in sweatshops. I'm not saying it's right, it's not, but that's the way American companies do business and make a profit.

Creating code is not like sewing jeans. No company ever makes exactly identical code twice. After all, that's what "cp" does. The coder constantly finds holes in the design (corner cases, poor choices, etc.) and must communicate with the designer and/or customers. It is incredibly expensive to elaborate the design so formally that there are no creative choices or questions left for the coders.

Before I hired Chinese coders I would want to know if they spoke excellent English, had high-bandwidth access to uncensored technical information sources (including mailng lists) in the West.

Re:Just like any other industry...

[flynt]

No company ever makes exactly identical code twice

Never worked at a company, have you?

Re:Just like any other industry...

[psxndc]

So you hire an English speaking "Front Controller" that all communication goes through. I see your point, but I think a lot of the overhead of Software Architect to Developers communication can be funneled through one Senior English speaking representative. I think it wouldn't be as big a deal to communicate a good design (the key here is good. Language doesn't matter if the design sucks, developement will take a long time) if the non-US team had a good representative.

psxndc

Re:Just like any other industry...

[bmajik]

Maybe the writing is on the wall for US based software developers ?

I remember the hoax interview with Stroutstrup about why he invented C++.. it went something like this..

"IBM trained lots and lots of people to become C programmers.. and they got really good at it... and there was no money to be made in C development... so i came up with C++, something so hiddeously complex so as to once again put a premium on good developers"

Sounds like there are lots of cheap developers for real now. And with everyone pushing towards component software or distributed anonymous systems, eventually someone will figure otu to use the Indian Foo.c or bar.pl. Economically, no one is oging to pay some american to re-implement bubble sort in perl in an air conditioned bright office on prime real estate for much longer.

In 10 years, will we all sound like washed up UAW members, bitching about "those damn japs and their jap robots" ?

Re:Just like any other industry...

[Raving]

I love /. for this. The OP was american-centered, and here you come adding some more.

I am french, and being told that the only opportunities of development work are weel-paid jobs in the US or cheap routine work anywhere else makes me laught. Whatever.

No offence intended...

Olivier

'Creative' development jobs will stay here for now

[Jobe_br]

I agree with the poster that, for now, creative development jobs are likely to stay state-side (or in the EU: Finland, anyone?). However, I'll throw out this bit of caution: from my own experience at one of the world's largest avionics company, where we routinely out-sourced tedious work to Chinese developers, the major stumbling block at the moment is language. As technology and intercultural exchange advances (say the next generation of developers), a common language will become less and less of a problem as many (if not all) will speak flawless English and be able to understand and convey complex engineering topics. When this day comes, I am afraid that developers in the US will feel the same fear as auto workers, factory assembly line workers and many other 'out-sourced' industry workers have felt in the past.

The developers in India, offering to develop, test, and deploy your software for pennies on the dollar (or Euro) are not dumb, not by any stretch of the imagination. They have excellent resources, many times (books, 'Net connections, hardware) and they almost always have degrees in CS from accredited (and damn good) institutions. I recall a professor I had in my undergraduate schooling (in the US) that went to undergrad school in India, and Georgia Tech for her graduate work. She was one of the most amazingly intelligent professors I have ever run across.

The point? Don't sit on your duff - get out there, get smarter, stay current, try to think of new things, evolve. Good hunting.

My school already has this one figured out...

[Peyna]

At the University where I am attending 90% of the staff in the Computer Science department is from India (says so on their resumes). I guess we're ahead of the game. =]

Re:My school already has this one figured out...

[Peyna]

Does it matter at all what college I attend? I fail to see how that would help you understand what I mean, anyway.

Re:My school already has this one figured out...

[Peyna]

Agreed, I have no problem at all understanding them. It's just another accent, just like any other, it takes some adapting, but you can still understand it. Just like I have trouble understanding people from the Southern United States.

globalization and jobs

[theirpuppet]

one of the key points to globalization, is the free movement of corporations across national boundaries. a friendlier environment, such as the one which is being created, allows corporations to set up shop wherever it's cheaper (look at NAFTA and GM, closed down their plants, moved them to Mexico, over a hundred thousand people were greatly affected by one case of this).

the 'brain drain' will cease to be necessary. the internet is allowing IT work to be done around the world, globalization allows corporations to find workers anywhere for any pay.

the US will be reduced to third world status as soon as it is convenient. 1% owns over 95% of the wealth. This is today. Tomorrow it will be worse, and most will simply live on the periphery (today's third world laborers, palistinians in israel, manual laborers in singapore)....

What is creative software?

[dragons_flight]

My guess is that the most creative software opportunities will remain in the US for some time, and the more routine development efforts will continue to be transfered overseas.

I'm not a professional programmer, but I do have programming experience, and this statement got me thinking. In the commercial world what are the oppurtunities for "creative" software development?

The only one that comes to mind is game development, and even for some games the creativity is mostly in the art and story and little in the actual programming. Certainly researchers in AI, natural language, and some other areas are being creative, but most of the unusual things seem to be academic rather than commercial.

It's trivially easy for me to think of a wide array of rote programming projects that could be thrown together with existing techniques, but how often do commerical projects involve inventing new ideas and techniques?

Just to bring everyone up to speed

[EoRaptor]

People may wonder how this type of outsourced programming works, and I'll run down a few examples here.

One is the fixed API method. A function or functions are needed that perform X on data Y. This requirement is simply farmed out, and code is produced that does this. This code is then integrated into the larger code by the contracting company. In essence, this is the grunt work of programming, and it's where India started, and where China will likely start too.

Another is code upgrade. Legacy code in one language is handed to a programming team, and the requirement that it be ported to new language X on system Y is given. India does a lot of this now, and their technology parks have a plethora of older hardware to mimic these legacy systems for developers to work with. The advantage here is that Indian's speak english fluently and reading native code with it's comments and documentation presents no problem at all for them. A legacy of British Colonialism that the Indians have turned to their advantage. I don't see the Chinese doing well here very quickly, as periodic reviews will be done in english, and communication could be a total headache.

The third is the requirement style. Software must perform X,Y,Z and run on systems A,B,C. This is becoming more common. In this case, the entire software suite, from the core to the interface is handled by the Indian company. This is where India finds itself today, and it's pretty good at it. I've reviewed some results from projects like these, and the coding style is uniform, properly commented and compact. It's also a unique kind of style, and takes some getting used to, but any given company will produce the same style each time, so it's certainly very acceptable. On average I'd say it's less buggy, BUT!, I only see the end result, it may have been hell just weeks before, and I never saw it. This is somewhere the Chinese could do well, as a final pass to translate comments isn't terribly hard, but

The last style is market need. This is where a perceived need is seen, and software is made to meet this need unsolicited. This I haven't seen very much, but as they become more aware of our market, India will certainly begin to try it's hand at this. China may never bother, as their own market is probably going to be big enough to consume any supply for a long time, and the very different cultures make the risk greater than a lot of companies may want to take.

It's debatable wether China will ever catch India, the difference in style of education and culture may be to great. China may end up with the widget API market, and may end up serving the Indian markets need for this, oddly enough, but wether they can break the language barrier enough to work directly with english commented and documented code is something I can't predict. It's one of thoise moments where paradigm shift actually means something.

Re:Overseas

[Anonymous Coward]

how is reimplementing a 1970's operating system designed at ATT in the USA creative? Or ripping off a windowing system designed by MS in the USA? Looks like the USA is the leader again!

Creative Software

[angel'o'sphere]

My guess is that the most creative software opportunities will remain in the US for some time, and the more routine development efforts will continue to be transfered overseas.

The United States are dominating the software market, thats true. But I doubt you can call them the more creative ones.
Its widely accepted that european software companies have the more complicated and more inovative and more difficult to sell applications.

One reason among others is internationalization. A US company usualy can drop that till they have a solid market position. European companies can't.

LINUX e.g. is mainly developed in Europe.
Microsoft Windows mainly in the US.

StarOffice/OpenOffice was developed in Europe.
Microsoft Office in the US.
KDE mainly in Europe.

Y2K services where regulary done in India.
Y2K Reengineering is not easy. A lot of companies tried to provide services and failed. A lot of companies field bancrupcy because they tried to fix their Y2K problems by their own.

Banglore, or Bangalore, has more IT jobs than a typical american city. And in relation to most self thought programmers in the western world most IT workers in India have a solid university education.

Of course its arguable how deep their education is and if it can compete with our western standards.

However I think that the argument is living costs and wages.
As well as their attempt to approach market segments where we have a strong competition in, especialy regarding the price. (Y2K was done in India because they did it for 10 cents a line of code while in the US 70 cents where common. They could do it for 10 cents because the living costs are aby small in relation to the US)

OTOH I doubt China is a competitor for Europe or the US on the gloabl market soon.
As hard as it is for us to tackle their market it is for them to approach our market. The language barrier and the mentality is simply to different.

Look at the silly results of the Microsoft Thesaurus for Word in Germany.
There are so many "new" words which have a wrong meaning. Like "Frauenhaus" which got linked to "Freudenhaus".

The first one is a refugee for women having problems with their friend/husband, the later is a bordell.

Regards, angel'o'sphere

I wonder

[Techi]

I have to wonder exactly how this would influence the open-source community. It seems that most of our current open source software is a conglomeration of several different International efforts. Based on how much Linux has been growing recently, I wonder if we will see more Chinese software contributing to already existing platforms, or if there will be development on completely different platforms that run on the same business model as RedHat. Will we see more Linuxes and BSDs, or will this just result in more outsourcing for highly repetitive tasks in code and proprietary software?

Fairness

[jfroot]

So in the sense of fairness, will we be able to pirate any software we want that comes out of China without fear of punishment?

Splitting Design/Coding

[nyjx]

The big reason for splitting design from coding leg work has to do with the market you're serving. I guess a lot of the more interesting "custom" software is still built for richer markets (Europe, Japan, USA) and to produce systems like that you need:

• A lot of interaction with the customer
• A good feel for what competitors in that market can offer
• A good feel for the corporate culture & existing systems in the company your selling too

These things are very hard to achieve if the design team is half a world away - the cycle times are just too long and to make a good product/system you need a lot of interaction with your customer.

So what's could happen is that a lot of the commodity, stack 'em high, sell 'em cheap software may move elsewhere but custom design remains in the home markets.

Hence this has little to do with creativity of Chinese or India programmers - simply that they are further from the target markets. Once their domestic markets really take off then the US, Japan and Europe will be in for serious competition.

Re:'Creative' development jobs will stay here for

[dragons_flight]

Alternatively, we can work to balance the economic situation so that dollars don't buy so much more over there than they do over here.

If it's just as cheap (or just as expensive) for a US company to set up a plant overseas as it is to set up a plant locally, then there would be little reason to go overseas. However, US monetary policy has been directly against this situation. The system is controlled so that the US$ is expected to be worth more overseas, and that way the US can more easily exert in foriegn economics. That policy makes sense from the standpoint of the US wanting power, but it's not exactly fair or nice.

Someday I hope to see worldwide economic parity, but somehow I doubt it will happen in my lifetime. In the mean time, much of the rest of the world is already succumbing to the need to learn English just to keep up with the US, while lazy people like me have never taken the time to ever be really good at any other languages.

India is a free 'enterprise' country

[starrmpic]

And I dont mean that in a rhetorical sense. Very few people realise that while it is a 3rd world country and somewhat socialistic in its inclinations in the past, entrepreneurship is very active in day to day life. Companies like Infosys, Wipro and others were started by enterprising people in a political environment that sustained it.

China definitely has the talent and the schools to grow it. What china lacks is the personal and social freedom in day to day life. China could be a very prosperous nation if it became somewhat democratic.

Re:India second largest software developer !!!???

[Space Coyote]

India also has the second largest film industry in the world, and I'll bet you haven't heard of any Indian films, either.
___
Cogito cogito, ergo cogito sum.

The Language Barrier

[Karora]

The biggest problem I see with China trying to achieve this is the language barrier.

India has a huge number of english-speaking inhabitants, and universities in India primarily teach in english. This is not the case in China.

A good programmer really needs to understand the problem domain, and it is in english-speaking countries that the most valuable problem-domains will be.

Eastern-european houses are doing fine in Europe because they are all well-used to overcoming language barriers there, but in North America it will be much harder to find bilingual teams.

Of course you don't need a whole team to understand both languages - just your key architects and project managers. There should be some good jobs for bilingual analysts and managers if this does go ahead with any strength.

Re:'Creative' development jobs will stay here for

[Jobe_br]

Very much agreed, on all points. While I do love capitalism as much as the next person, the way it has evolved in the US (politically) is self-defeating and in constant need of 'fixing' to keep the common-folk happy. My personal feeling is that as long as the country is led by people who care more about power than more idealistic things (human rights, our environment, spiritual (not religious) understanding and things like a uniform code of morals and ethics) - we will be forever in this position. As a male that is at least somewhat enlightened to these types of things, I am very interested in seeing what happens to our country (and other countries as well) as more women take on leadership roles. I can't say that women won't succomb as men have, but I am hopeful and interested.

On India (As an American programmer....)

[ThomasMis]

In November of 2000, as a young and brash 24 year old software engineer, I got laid off from the embedded systems startup I was working for. My roommate and I (who was also a comp sci major and laid off on the same day) decided to try independent contracting. We both had been working in the industry for a few years and had picked up some business savvy along the way. So we got outselves a lawyer, incorporated, and all that...

Then the fatefull day that we meet our first potention client. They were a investment group that needed number crunching software there field agents could use on site. I had spent some time at a large national insurance company writing insurance software, so this is right up my alley. So I sit down to talk business and the first thing out of this clients mouth is "why should we go with you, who is charging ten times what it would cost if we went with an Indian firm?" Keep in mind, we were only charging $45 an hour. And for those who don't keep score on software contracting rates, that is as low as it gets. I try to explain the value of being able to work with somebody who you can meet face to face, but they had made up there minds even before I got there.

Over 2001 this was repeated time and again. We were subcontracted some work from a consultant in Florida but were told that there wasn't going to be any follow up work because he normally goes with Russian or Indian programmers that he can pay 5 dollars an hour for!

So what's my point? I shake when I hear that China is trying to follow in Indians footsteps. The American market for small little independant consultants is harsh. And I fear soon will be non-existant. But that's the way the world is moving. Can't fight globalization.

I still believe the entrepunurial American programmer can be successfull as long as they come up with original and inovative services or products. But as far as being a gun for hire... that market might be gone.

Re:On India (As an American programmer....)

[Pengo]

I still believe the entrepunurial American programmer can be successfull as long as they come up with original and inovative services or products. But as far as being a gun for hire... that market might be gone.

Your exactly right, if you can find something that will fill an exact niche and do it well, you will make some money. Build a framework for filling orders for refills on gumball machines. Someone out there needs it, and will pay for it.. because your the only person that has it and they don't have the resouces to manage an outsourced team. Etc. etc.

Maybe there is just no room for lazy overpaid contract programmers, but good ones will always find a job.

Re:On India (As an American programmer....)

[no-s]

It may seem as if the US independent contractor mkt has dried up. But in actuality US gov't contracting is still going strong for us citizens. Not that you will actually do any exciting work (gov't software development is the pits), but you will have a contract as a 'guru'. I'm embarrassed to say it's what I'm doing right now (after 16 years of successfully avoiding govt contracts). I'm also regrouping for a bit of a career change.

The poster who suggests breaking out of the hourly rate game is on target. Most cost overruns occur on hourly rate contracts; in most cases the overrun is not noticed. Therefore corporations who only want to hire the cheapest hourly rate, won't negotiate, have turned a blind eye to opportunity. Any moderately complex project based on hourly rate must use deep bean-counting to succeed on cost targets over a fixed price project; Software success primarily requires getting rid of 'noise' in the development process and excessive management is a form of 'noise'. Distributed projects add extra management 'noise' to the development process; Mgt is betting reduced hourly rates will save the day. This can work, but requires more discipline than most companies are capable of (most people seem to use project management for presentation purposes, can't even set useful milestones - hah!).

Don't be afraid to 'game' the negotiation process. Learn all you can. If you can help a business win, you will be scoring reputation points which will lead to future opportunities. Keep your overhead low so as to minimize cost advantages to non-us competitors. Don't work for free. Open-source contributors are not working for free (most sensible ones have their finances in order), they are working for reputation points and breaking up entrenched markets, leading to more opportunity for really useful and productive people over drones.

Software going "offshore" - like hardware

[ricst]

Software development moving "offshore" to India and now China is repeating a pattern that has occured in several other US industries. One closest to software is microelectronics. In the 1970s into the mid 1980s, major US firms like Intel, Motorola, and National Semiconductor were making lots of memory chips. The Japanese, Taiwanese and eventually South Koreans essentially took that business away by being able to learn the technology and develop less expensive manufacturing processes (in part using lower paid staff). Now Intel, AMD, National Semi, and the rest manufacture only the most complex chips domestically, i.e., CPUs and other specialized designs. Even Japan has ceded some of the memory chip market to the Koreans and Chinese.

If there's a moral here, it's that the highest paying jobs are those that involve the most creativity, intelligence and freedom, and can only exist in a stable political and economic environment. Right now, recent events not withstanding, that's still by and large the US (and some European countries). [Still cosidering outsourcing that software development project to India when they are close to war with Pakistan?] So, if the US (and Europe) is to maintain its current position, we all need to get smart and keep smart and keep pushing for public and privately funded activities that foster and reward creativity and prevent established monopolies (won't mention any names here!) from dominating markets and stiffling innovation.

Do not underestimate their talent and skills

[Ldir]

We have not used international outsourcing, but I have had employee developers from these countries. I had a client/server development team of up to 26 employees and contractors. This included one person each from India, Pakistan, China, and Malaysia. The balance of the team was mostly good ole' corn-fed Midwesterners, with a couple people from other parts of the U.S.

I won't try to generalize too much based on four individuals. Based on my limited experience, however, I would never underestimate the skills and talent of developers from Asia. Everyone on my team was at least good; several of them were great. These four were all in the top 25%.

In particular, the man from India was an absolute star. I've never met anyone who turned out such high-quality code, well designed and well structured, in so little time. As a plus, his work ethic was outstanding. He was a manager's dream.

Our woman from China was close behind, a solid #2. We handed her an extremely difficult system; she jumped in and devoured it. Similar work ethic, similar high-quality code, extremely valuable to us.

This is NOT a criticism of our American developers. Three or four of them were stars in their own right. As mentioned before, the entire team was good or better. It just happens that these two individuals were from China and India, and they happened to be the best of the best. When I did annual evaluations, those two always got the highest scores on the team.

Maybe I got the only two stars, but I doubt it. Both of them were already in the area, and the Midwest isn't exactly known for being the center of the software universe. I'll bet there are plenty more where they came from.

In short, those countries do have highly talented people. They can produce extremely skilled developers. We must not assume that they can't handle the "creative" work, or we may be asking "Do you want fries with that?" and wondering whatever happened to those good paychecks.

Re:The most offensive Slashdot article _ever_

[dangermouse]

There is nothing ignorant or racist about his statement whatsoever.

Most software is made for U.S. and European markets. The software industry began and is strongly entrenched in the United States and Europe. Therefore, most software development is done by or for U.S. and European companies. Most of the "creative work", then, necessarily happens in the U.S. or Europe because (A) that's where the decision-makers in the developing companies are, and (B) these are the people who know the market well.

Most programming work that happens in India is "non-creative" work that's farmed out by U.S. and European companies because the labor is cheaper in India, and the benefits of proximity to the market are much smaller with that sort of work.

And it's a cycle that feeds on itself, as the system/market/whatever optimizes each locale's role.

It won't go on forever, of course, but there's no reason to pretend that this isn't the state of the industry now or that it's likely to change soon.

Perhaps you mean "nationalistic"

[Infonaut]

From dictionary.com:

Racist: The belief that race accounts for differences in human character or ability and that a particular race is superior to others.

Nationalist: Devotion to the interests or culture of one's nation.

Re:Perhaps you mean "nationalistic"

[benmhall]

Yeah, you're right. Nationalistic would have been more accurate.

Oh, and my post was _not_ flamebait. Just honest. As a Canadian (so not overseas but not American) I found that statement to be offensive. It was a poor, innacurate generalization.

Re:Perhaps you mean "nationalistic"

[Infonaut]

I know you didn't mean it as flamebait. I agree that the statement was offensive. Hell, as users of Open Source software in particular, we should all be aware of how many creative and ground-breaking software products come from outside the U.S.

This is great

[rana]

I think the current success of Indian programming companies and the future success of Chinese programmers is good for everyone in the long run. Why should Indians and Chinese have to give up their way of life and become virtual indentured servants in the U.S. just to get a programming job?

Right now, the difference in salaries may seem huge, but remember, in the U.S. a lot of a typical programmer's salary is eaten up by exhorbitant rent and mortgage payments. I imagine an Indian programmer lives comfortably, though the dollar amounts are much smaller. Also, I expect the salaries will rise over time as more employers enter the market.

I don't think this is a zero sum game, it's more of a rising tide lifting all boats. More people in the middle class in India and China means more consumers of US and European exports.

A non US-centric view

[jregel]

I live and work in the UK, and the company I work for contracts all our major development out to a company in India. As a result, we have a continual stream of Indian developers coming over and working with us, sometimes for a few months, sometimes longer. My experience with working with these people is that they are extremely smart. I've seen them implement web applications that go beyond anything I've seen elsewhere.

Perhaps it's a sign of the current climate in the US, but I don't hear people in the UK complaining about jobs being lost to foreign companies. While I may have concerns about the pay and conditions of my Indian colleagues (I would guess that they are payed less that UK-native developers), I certainly don't begrudge them competing and succeeding in the global IT industry.

Re:Communism CANNOT create good software

[dangermouse]

Either you're trolling, or you've had your head in the sand for ten years.

China began a transition to a market (read: "unplanned") economy in the early 1990s. About ten seconds with google will tell you that it hasn't taken long to get there.

The U.S. is losing its lead

[Anonymous Coward]

I've been doing UNIX work for over 20+ years now, the last 10+ years as a consultant. Here are some of my observations from Silicon Valley:

Outsourcing is real big. On the gig I'm at right now, there are very few U.S. programmers; most of them are from India, Israel and Russia.

This trend is not reversing, it's getting bigger. I do more and more work in these types of gigs; I haven't seen it getting less.

The quality of work from most of the foreign programmers is really crappy. No - that's not a troll; just an observation. Sorry if some take offense, but the amount of utterly rotten and clueless programming that I've seen from these folks just amazes me. If my clients spent a little more for a U.S. programmer of decent quality, they'd end up saving themselves money. I see this over and over again.

Also, the U.S. government is VERY much against U.S. software developers; so much so that it has created an environment which is actually hostile to independent software developers. It is getting harder to maintain one's own business as a contractor - not easier. For example, the I.R.S. actively targets "software consultants" to the point that agencies really dislike working with sole proprietors. Just talk to any medium to large agency, and you'll find that it is a big concern. Some will only take you on as an employee.

I also seem to be running into more businesses that are hesitant about working directly - due to the I.R.S. concerns.

But lets not forget about all the additional legal crap I have to worry about since 9/11, and the resulting legislation. I'm not a terrorist; but now previously innocent things might get me thrown in prison for 25 years!?

I submit that a hostile business environment in the U.S. is not a good one for maintaining a lead in talent on the rest of the world. And I submit that losing such a lead would be detrimental to the U.S.'s strategic interests.

I'm REAL pessimistic for U.S. keeping the lead in the long term. Most of the work WILL go overseas, due to economics and the laws. And it's just a matter of time until all the creative and innovative work goes too.

I'd move offshore in a flash if I didn't have a family. But I will be moving offshore once the kids are grown in a few more years.

Since the U.S. is creating such a hostile environment, I say "screw you" to the whole damn system - I'm outta here as soon as I can go. Less taxes, more freedom, and less worries. No, that's not patriotic. But I'm tried of all this crap, and would be delighted to support a country that actually does have more freedom.

Now could someone kindly explain why anyone would still want to do development in the U.S.? I'm all ears.

Re:The U.S. is losing its lead

[ScourgeOfGod]

I have been doing development on the east coast, also for 20 years, 10 of them as a consultant. I can think of no reason to continue developing here. I've always done development as a business, and as a business, the margins are no longer compelling.

I agree that it seems the gov't is hostile to individual software developers here. I suspect that as a group, individual developers are under-represented. We have no lobbyists. The body shops do, and chapter 1706 of the tax code of 1986 is an example of the results.

Problem with language and IP

[AaronW]

While China may want to get into the software industry they have a major impediment. In India, all of the educated Indians speak fluent english. In China, this is not the case. In my group where I work most of the team is Indian. The only non-Indian people are myself, a Chinese fellow, and my boss (who's Canadian). For the most part there are no problems working with the Indian people (once I got used to their accent). However, the Chinese guy is another story. It is often very painful to try and explain basic concepts to him such that he understands what I am saying. I spent half an hour just getting him to understand that a parameter to my API was limited to 20 bits and to place the upper bits elsewhere. I felt like that father in Monty Python's Holy Grail telling the guards not to let his son leave the room.

He is an extreme example. I have worked with other Chinese software developers who have better English skills, yet the language issue always ends up becomming a problem.

One of the problems is that English is completely different from Chinese with absolutely nothing in common. Europe doesn't suffer this problem since all of the languages have many similarities in sentence structure, pronunciation, spelling, tense, character sets, and so on. Also, in Europe the schools have been teaching English for some time and there is no problem getting fluent English speaking teachers.

I imagine that China has a lot of difficulty getting fluent English teachers over there, especially with all of the opportunities in the Western world without the corruption or restrictions.

I've worked on computers running the German version of Windows NT. By the text I can still figure out what things are and how they relate to the English equivelent. It was not too difficult for me to reconfigure the networking on the boxes, even though I am not a Windows NT andministration expert). Also, if I had any problems, I could ask anyone since all of the Germans spoke fluent English. When I sat in front of a Chinese version once, I was totally lost.

Another major problem is China's lack of respect for IP. India has a fairly good reputation and many large companies have offices over there (i.e. Cisco, Nortel, etc.). China, OTH, has a very bad reputation. You can go anywhere and buy expensive pieces of software for only $1. Or for that matter, you can get a DVD of the latest movie within days after it's released into theaters long before the official releases come out.

Most companies are scared to death of their IP getting out. On this front the Chinese have a well deserved *very* bad reputation.

No company in their right mind would farm anything out to China.

Re:The most offensive Slashdot article _ever_

[slashdot.org]

Yeah, that statement annoyed me a lot too.

The poster seems to assume that all India and China has to offer in terms of software development is programming houses that provide services to US companies.

Although it's almost impossible to avoid any racist issues when discussing this matter, I do believe the use of these houses is a Good Thing.

First of all, it provides a way to distribute money from the US to countries that have a lower standard of living. Secondly, it promotes education. The combination of the two has proven to be very succesful in increasing the standard of living in places that need it.

In fact, much of the great free software we all use has non-US origins.

In fact, some of the not so great, not so free software was made in the US. :o)

How about, will India pull a China?

[argoff]

Everyone keeps talking about chineese opportunity and investment, but the simple fact is that India is more accountable to westerm values and ways. They are a lot easier to deal with and make profit with, and alot more english friendly, and alot more politically friendly to the US.

As China grows, it is going to come under incredible political pressure as it's citizens become wealthier and have more expectations for freedom - the government will either become opressive internally or lash out (at Tiwan most likely) to channel this pressure away from the governemnt. In India this pressure will simply be channeled thru the democratic process.

Also, the US is far better off if China and India are struggeling against each other, than with the US.

Re:How about, will India pull a China?

[nomadic]

As China grows, it is going to come under incredible political pressure as it's citizens become wealthier and have more expectations for freedom - the government will either become opressive internally or lash out (at Tiwan most likely)

Actually the PRC government has already started channeling it against the west in general and the US in particular. They've had the propaganda machine going for years saying that all China's problems are a result of western imperialism. Nothing new about that, but now they're playing to feelings of nationalism rather than communist fervor.

Re:"Flawless" English *OT*

[Jobe_br]

I'm not entirely sure of what fly flew into your drink, but at no point was any portion of this story or discussion topic related to the differences in English semantics, pronunciations and accents of the various English speaking communities around the world. So, chill out! As an American, if I were to travel to Great Britain, Australia or a variety of other countries whose main language is English, I wouldn't have much of a problem communicating at a high level - this is what I am speaking of when I write of flawless English. Not the nitpick items you are talking of, rather the ability to communicate at a high level (both effectively, efficiently and intellectually). This language barrier is what is keeping the residents of India and China at a disadvantage currently. Lest I get more flames, please don't construe this as meaning that all natives of India and China speak flawed English, I am merely addressing a common problem I see.

hm...

[kevin lyda]

i know there's a difference between producer and exporter, but i wonder how many people know that ireland is the number one exporter of software in the world?

Re:Where is www.slashdot.us ?

[ThatComputerGuy]

www.slashdot.us... sounds like a challenge! Quick, post it on the front page!

Improving Development

[3seas]

All this really means is that there is a need to step up software development tools.

It may sound counter intutitive, but technology is not slowing down and in 100 years things are going to be extreamly different than as we know computer technology today.

Better to go with the flow on something like this than to oppose it.

Dose of Elbonia

[kimihia]

Flagrantly ripped from the latest DNRC newsletter:

Plop, The Hairless Elbonian

Over the summer I was experimenting with a Dilbert spin-off comic strip about a little boy and his pig growing up in the clueless country of Elbonia. Unfortunately this isn't a good time to launch a comic featuring people who look like the Taliban. So it's on the shelf, probably permanently.

You can see the experimental strips at:

http://www.unitedmedia.com/comics/plop/

Re:India second largest software developer !!!???

[igrek]

JFYI:

Country/film produced in 1999:

India 764
US 628
Japan 270
Philippines 220
France 181
etc.

Source: Screen Digest

contracting rates

[KyleCordes]

An effective way to fight this, and any other form of price pressure on hourly rates, is to deliver fixed deliverables for a fixed price, or other pricing methods that are not based on hours.

(Of course, there are also plenty of perils therein.)

a few of my own observations

[Lictor]

Its an interesting proposition, and I thought I'd chime in with my viewpoint because I think I have a (semi) qualified opinion here.

I work at a university which has a significant number of graduate students who received their undergraduate education from institutions in mainland China. Moreover, we literally receive hundreds of applications from such students every year. I served on the admissions committee for the graduate program last year and had the opportunity to review transcripts and CVs for many of these individuals.

I am of the opinion that what constitutes a CS education in China is radically different from what constitutes a CS education in North America and Europe. I saw several applicants who received degrees in computer science, yet the only courses I could find on their transcripts that were even vaguely related were "Visual Basic Programming I, II and III" and "Microsoft Access".

No theory courses, no programming languages, no algorithms, no data structures, no design, no software engineering. There were, however, mandatory 'Physical Education' and 'Marxist Economic Theory' courses. (I really feel for these students... I'm not sure how thrilled I would've been to have mandatory "gym class" in University!)

Unfortunately this is not a just a few cases; this was the norm (at least for the few hundred applications I've personally seen).

My overall impression then, is that these applicants probably are qualified to hack out VB code. In fact, their education seems to be setting them for trade jobs as coders. Unfortunately, whats lacking is any sort of rigourous training in basic computer *science* and software engineering. In the long run, one of three things can come of this: these individuals will educate themselves and become productive coders; someone else (i.e. their employers) will have to pay to educate them on the missing material; or, sadly, they simply will never be very effective software engineers. Since the people who will choose path #1 are few and far between, I'm not sure India has anything to worry about yet.

I think China needs to take a serious look at how they are educating their 'Computer Scientists' if they are serious about becoming a world software power. Its certainly within their grasp, I'm just not convinced they have the system in place to achieve it yet.

(I must also point out that while the situation described above was very common, it certainly does not reflect *all* the applicants from Chinese universities. There are some institutions in China that give a first-rate CS education and I have had the priviledge of working with some excellent graduate students coming out of those programs. I'm just not yet convinced that this is representative of most cases.)

Re:a few of my own observations

[elflord]

I work at a university which has a significant number of graduate students who received their undergraduate education from institutions in mainland China.

If your school needs to import a lot of students, how good is the program ?

I am of the opinion that what constitutes a CS education in China is radically different from what constitutes a CS education in North America and Europe.

I am of the opinion that there is probably a lot of variation in the quality of the institutions there (as there is in America)

I'm just not yet convinced that this is representative of most cases.

But are you convinced that the applications you receive constitute a representative cross-section of students there ?

Support Industry

[metlin]

As a lot of readers pointed out, one of the main advantages we have here in India is that our entire education is in English.

It may not sound all that great to a non-Indian, but then think of it, we usually know our mothertongue, our national language (Hindi) and based on the state you reside in, the language of that state, besides English (thanks to India being a former British colony).

So in a way, English acts as a binding factor, and in fact, most of us know better English than our own mothertongues. This has given us a small edge over several other Asian countries, where English is not compulsory.

An offshoot of this is the Support Industry from India. Decent technical skills, coupled with good knowledge of English and cheaper manpower, I'm beginning to see a lot of US/European companies outsourcing their support to third party Indian companies.

This works out great for both parties, since the Indian gets paid really well (well atleast relative to Indian standards) and the company need only pay very less. A poster above had said that Indians get paid $5 an hour -- although this seems to be a slight exaggeration, $5 is still fairly high for an Indian, where a fairly good programmer gets about $6000 a year, which is more than enough to lead a luxurious life here!

Another advantage is the cost of hardware & other structural costs. Hardware and other communications equipment here are *very* cheap. For example, you can get about 128 MB RAM for about $10-12. An ethernet card is about $8. So, the setting up of the support organization takes less time, and is cheaper.

Really, it is a win-win situation. And given market inertia, it may not prove to be easy to swerve the customers away that easily.

Re:Where is www.slashdot.us ?

[roguerez]

I rather see it Europe centric, as I am a European, not USian. :)

What about hardware?

[Quixote]

India may be the world's second-largest software producer, but where does the hardware (to produce the said software) come from? The chips are Intel/AMD. The systems? Could they be from Dell, Compaq, or HP ?

Re:"Flawless" English *OT*

[pmc]

Did you know there are more speakers of English in India than there are in the UK?

There are more speakers of English in Europe than the UK. For most of them it is a second language.

US ignorance - sad, but true

[X.25]

My guess is that the most creative software opportunities will remain in the US for some time, and the more routine development efforts will continue to be transfered overseas.

I can't remember that CERN, Nokia, Siemens, Fujitsu and thousands of other companies/universities ever asked US to 'transfer development efforts' to them. You think US is in the center of the Universe, don't you?

Otherwise our standard of living, which is probably the highest in the world, will get lower while the rest of the world's gets higher.

I presume you travel/work experience consists of holidays on some islands, and work in your city, right!? If you think you have the highest standard - you're dreaming. Have a holiday in Singapore or Sweden, for a change...

Sad reality is that many people simply 'ignore' Americans these days, for a very simple reason - they think they know everything about everything, and they think they have right to give 'lesssons' to other people about culture (Britney Spears, yeah), democracy (that's my favourite), communism (although 99% of Americans don't even know/understand concept behind communism), creativity (read European/Asian newspapers, and then judge - don't make judgements purely on reading US newspapers), etc.

Bottom line is - you insult people every day because you don't understand what you're talking about, and yet you think you're "doing them a favour", simply because you read something in the newspaper. Pretty sad...

Re:biased sample space

[xzap]

The individuals are top of the pack because they are in the US ? Does that mean people can become good programmers only if they live in the US ?

I dont think so.
I am doing my B.E with C.S in India and while i agree we have our share of bad programmers I have met some of the best around here and their code is no worse then a lot of open source code that I see which is coded in US and often better.

And about furthering our skills, the premise that we cant even buy books is really faulty. Infact all popular programming books published in the US have an Indian edition which is often 1/10th the price and even poor students studying for their BE ( like me :) ) can afford them.

Whether you want to outsource your work or not is ofcourse your decision but please dont say people are bad programmers just because they are not in the US.

Back office of the world

[vande-mataram]

According to this article over at CNN.com, India wants to become the back office of the world.

This is basically IT-enabled services for tele-marketing, helpdesk support, medical transcription, back-office accounting, payroll management, maintaining legal databases, insurance claim and credit card processing, animation, and higher-end engineering design -- all of which can be delivered by phones, computers and the Internet.

India is aiming to become "the world's back-office."

Now this is something the Chinese cannot grab in a hurry at all!

McKinsey estimates the market for this to be half a trillion dollars by 2008. Even if that sounds far-fetched and we discount it by a factor of 10, it would still mean massive amout of money.

Finally India is coming into its own. Just as oil transformed the Persian Gulf, India has found its oil - her people which are her greatest strength.

Re:biased sample space

[Ldir]

I happen to agree with your conclusion that foreign workers are highly talented, but your anecdote is a flawed basis for this conclusion.

Certainly I agree, and I tried to make this clear in my message. I recognized the limits of drawing conclusions about a continent of people based on only four individuals, especially when those four have all moved from that continent. Likely they are a little special, or they'd still be home.

In my opinion, too many U.S. Americans feel smuggly superior to the rest of the world. After all, "them furriner programmers from thems backward countries cain't possibly be as good as us God-fearing, red-blooded 'mericans." Most people I know aren't that blatantly stupid about this, of course. They know there are smart, talented people everywhere. But they sometimes rationalize that the rest of the world just doesn't have the training, or the equipment, or the whatever to really reach "our" levels of expertise.

I offered my little experience only to help point out that this arrogance is foolish, and potentially quite dangerous to our standard of living. At least some of their people compete with the very best of ours. My guess, based on limited data (but a good dose of common sense), is that it's a lot more than "some".

The world is getting smaller every day. There are a lot of former manufacturing workers in the U.S. who never believed their livelihoods could be outsourced either.

Re:"Flawless" English *OT*

[Jobe_br]

It stands to reason that this would be the case (there are more speakers of English in India than there are in the UK) since the population of India is so HUGE (and populous) and the UK is (after all) still only an island. I recall hearing that there are more first generation Irish in the US than there are in Ireland ... not entirely surprising either :).

Btw, thanks for the back up - I appreciate it.

Strategies for US programmers

[russellamiller]

What should US programmers do if they are laid off because of foreign outsourcing?

If they should learn new skills, which new skills? Moving from programmer to software architect? Would that necessarily provide any more security?

Should they move to areas that can't be outsourced, like government and military work, or work that depends on knowledge of US culture, etc?

Or should they just abandon programming altogether for some other field? If so, what field? What other form of work (not management) would provide any better insurance against being outsourced to foreign workers?

In general, how are US workers to compete, since they obviously can't compete on price?

distant 2nd in H-1B visas

[peter303]

India contributes about 47% of the visa holders
and China 9%, accorded to latest figures I've seen.

Re:biased sample space

[glitch!]

Infact all popular programming books published in the US have an Indian edition which is often 1/10th the price and even poor students studying for their BE ( like me :) ) can afford them.

Interesting... I wonder if some enterprising student in India would be interested in making money by selling these in the US.

The US textbook industry is not exactly organized crime, but it IS corrupt. The publishers do their best to prevent re-use of old textbooks by constantly updating them. They supply new copies to teachers for free in order to make the old ones "obsolete". This is the bribery part.

Considering that the publishers deserve no sympathy or respect in regards to their textbook scams, I think it would be really funny if someone in India made money at their expense.

Re:"Flawless" English *OT*

[Jobe_br]

Wow, 10%!?! That's a lot. Though as far as the US is concerned, at what generation does an American qualify as a 'native' English speaker? Might be difficult to quantify that comparison.

I can definitely vouch for the nativelike proficiency of some of India's English speakers. I recently saw a show on 'the next Hollywood' - in India. The creator of this 'Film City' was interviewed and spoke English amazingly well - and he wasn't even of the youngest generation (18-24) - he was probably in his 40s, by my poor guesstimate!