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The Coming Air Age

Lovejoy writes "Sixty years ago in The Atlantic Monthly, Igor Sikorsky wrote The Coming Air Age. "Any of us who are alive ten years after this Second World War is won will see and use hundreds of short-run helicopter bus services." He goes on to write about personal helicopters which fit in large garages and that helicopters that are easier to drive than cars, etc.. So, will personal flight ever be viable? Do wildly wrong predictions like this give futurists pause? I think they should."

252 comments

  1. Who needs helicopters... by Jouster · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... when we can have rocket belts?

    Jouster

    1. Re:Who needs helicopters... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Live Internet Radio Show Raw, funny stuff.

    2. Re:Who needs helicopters... by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      Who needs helicopters when we can have rocket belts?

      It failed some initial user tests:

      "Mr. Goatse, wait!, you have your belt on wrong.......I said, you have your......never mind, too late."

    3. Re:Who needs helicopters... by flyneye · · Score: 0

      Practical Flightfor humans.I wanna drink with this guy!

      --
      *Repent!Quit Your Job!Slack Off!The World Ends Tomorrow and You May Die!
  2. Not yet ... by nbvb · · Score: 3, Funny

    Personal flight won't be a reality until we figure out how to put skip-lines and double-yellows in mid-air to keep people in line :-)

    --NBVB

    1. Re:Not yet ... by doc_side · · Score: 1

      ... not to mention getting rid of that idea of flying between the buildings. ( think fifth element...et al)

    2. Re:Not yet ... by Usquebaugh · · Score: 3, Informative

      Until it's cheap. I want my Silver Surfer fantasy damn it now just hurry up and make it happen.

      It won't happen with current tech, too expensive and liable to fail. We need something like anti gravity, ducks the punches thrown by physicists, or something similar that provides oodles of lift for a few cents.

      Having surfed, skateboarded, snow boarded I'm all set to flyboard.

    3. Re:Not yet ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The solution is obvious. A virtual highway. It isn't there your car/personal flying machine projects it on the windshield. Of course this is dangerous if microsoft is involved in the development of such a system.

    4. Re:Not yet ... by nbvb · · Score: 5, Funny

      General Protection Fault at address x:FE2C y:42FA z:FFFF in module lane.dll.

      Please turn your yoke up up, down, down, left, right, left, right, gas, brake, start to reboot.

      Or, if they're built like anything from Detroit, a big 'ol light would come on that says "SERVICE AIRFRAME SOON" and it'd drop out of the sky.

    5. Re:Not yet ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Placing double-yellows lines is not much of a problem, compared
      to figuring out how we can keep people ridding within the
      yellow lines. Hey, we cannot even do it while
      driving on earth, foget about doing it when flying.

    6. Re:Not yet ... by anonymous+cupboard · · Score: 2
      Seriously, it is already addressed by Airbus Industrie for their flight control systems. Build three computers, use two hardware technologied (Intel and Motorola) and have three teams develop different software from the same functional spec. Add voting logic and you never get problems unless you go outside the functional spec defined envelope.

      Fo real pilots, this can be rather constricting but for a reliable, automagically controlled personal planes, I guess it would be fine.

    7. Re:Not yet ... by balloonpup · · Score: 1

      Nonono, that's up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, gas, break, select start. Forget the select, and you won't get your 30 extra seconds before crashing!

      --
      I sing the doggie electric!
  3. Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Rick+the+Red · · Score: 5, Insightful
    It didn't happen because Igor Sikorsky couldn't make helicopters the way Henry Ford made Model Ts. The problem is that when a Model T breaks you get out and walk; when your helicopter breaks, you die.

    --
    If all this should have a reason, we would be the last to know.
    1. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by littlerubberfeet · · Score: 4, Informative

      NO, the helocopter dies, and you autorotate down to the ground. At any decent helo flight school, they will force at least 3 practice autorotations, where they actually shut off the engine. They are no more dangerous then having an engine shut off in a Porsche at 140 mph. It just takes a little more training, which wouldn't be a bad thing for most car drivers.

      --
      Sig (appended to the end of comments you post, 120 chars)
    2. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by frisket · · Score: 3, Informative
      It didn't happen because helicopters have all the aerodynamic qualities of a brick. When the power goes in a plane, you can glide for miles and with luck land in a field or on a beach. When the power goes in a helicopter you just drop, vertically.

      Predictions like this were made during and after WW1 as well, for the private use of planes. For a time in the 20s and early 30s, it seemed as if it might be true: small biplanes like the Moth were cheap and easy to fly, and could be stored in the garage and assembled for a trip.

      But I don't know why it never took off...maybe the intervention of WW2, cheaper cars, better roads...

    3. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by shadowj · · Score: 5, Informative
      When the power goes in a helicopter you just drop, vertically.

      Not quite true. When the power goes in a helicopter, there's a lot of angular momentum stored in the rotor, and aerodynamic effects allow you to spin the rotor even faster by angling the blades appropriately as you, er, plummet.

      As you approach the ground (probably a lot faster than you'd like), you angle the blades to bite into the air, trading lift for angular momentum. If you do this correctly, you may be able to save your butt.

      --

      --Larry

      Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence

    4. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Usquebaugh · · Score: 4, Informative

      That's assuming you have a place to land, the rotors are still in one piece, the rotors are free to auto rotate, the other control surfaces are still functioning. There is plenty of footage of autorotation accidents.

      Having an engine shut off at speed in a corner is vicious, suddenly no drive going to braking. When your car is balanced at speed any change in force is a big problem.

    5. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Henry+V+.009 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Hell, you can even program a computer to do it for you automagically.

    6. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'll keep that in mind when I'm hit by some jackass talking on the cell phone, applying makeup/shaving, or trying to do work on a laptop computer. Well, I suppose it'll be some time until the air gets as crowded as the highways.

    7. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by WankersRevenge · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but most drivers are idiots.

    8. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by triumphDriver · · Score: 1

      Take just about any car, get it going as fast as it will go. Most cars will do at least 100 mph. Lift your right foot quickly off the accelerator. See what happens. BTW take some extra underwear it will be very interesting for a few seconds.

      --
      I grew up in the Fulda Gap, where did you?
    9. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by GigsVT · · Score: 3, Informative

      According to the NTSB database, there have been about 5100 heli incidents/accidents since 1/1/1980. 879 had at least one fatality.

      So, it's not too bad, but compared to the number of general aircraft fatal/nonfatal incident ratio, it's higher.

      Of course, that could be due to the higher incident of runway incursions and planes taxiing into other planes causing minor damage, which is included in these numbers. Those kinds of things don't often happen to helicopters, since, well, they don't taxi. :)

      --
      I've had enough abrasive sigs. Kittens are cute and fuzzy.
    10. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are no other control surfaces on a helicopter once you lose engine power.

    11. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Doogman · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Ok, you have a choice: a dead stick landing with a Cessna 172 or a helicopter at equal altitude. Which would you choose?

      I would choose the Cessna 100% of the time. Sure, you can autorotate a heli down, but if you don't have _plenty_ of airspeed/altitude when you do it, good luck and things happen fast. At least with a regular plane, you actually have a few minutes to ponder where to land.

      Not to mention if the rotor "departs the aircraft." A prop you can live without, but not a rotor.

      A pilot told me once, "Practicing a autorotation is alot like practicing dying."

    12. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Feanturi · · Score: 1

      Not quite true. When the power goes in a helicopter, there's a lot of angular momentum stored in the rotor, and aerodynamic effects allow you to spin the rotor even faster by angling the blades appropriately as you, er, plummet.

      As you approach the ground (probably a lot faster than you'd like), you angle the blades to bite into the air, trading lift for angular momentum. If you do this correctly, you may be able to save your butt.


      I don't know much about helicopters, but doesn't this assume that it's only the engine that failed, and not the control mechanisms? If a car loses control, you may hit something, or you may not. If a chopper loses control, isn't that going to turn out very badly in most cases?

    13. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Tablizer · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Having an engine shut off at speed in a corner is vicious

      What about Pathfinder-style airbags?

    14. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by shadowj · · Score: 1
      If a car loses control, you may hit something, or you may not. If a chopper loses control, isn't that going to turn out very badly in most cases?

      Perhaps, but the comparison being made here is between helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, not cars. If the control systems go on a fixed-wing aircraft, you'll have about as enjoyable and lengthy a ride as you'd have on a helicopter with a similar problem.

      If you're going to bring the relative safety of cars into the discussion, you'll have to admit that there's a lot more room to dodge a collision in three dimensions than in two... and there's a lot less stuff to hit at 20,000 feet!

      --

      --Larry

      Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence

    15. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by eyegor · · Score: 2

      I think that the general publics tendency towards idiocy is another limiting factor. It's bad enough letting them drive cars far more powerful then they need.

      Imagine letting them move in one extra dimension.

      We'd need to move underground to avoid the runners-up in the natural selection process as they rain from the sky.

      --

      Don't anthropomorphize computers, they don't like it.
    16. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Ctrl-Z · · Score: 2


      I'm not sure I understand. For obvious reasons, I am cautious about taking part in such an experiment, but I wanna know... just what does happen?

      The only things I can think of are:
      1) The accelerator will stick for a few seconds and the car will not slow down,
      2) The car will speed up (?!)
      3) The car will lose stability and you will go on a wild ride a la Dukes of Hazzard
      4) Something else?

      What exactly would happen? This isn't the sort of situation that lends itself well to a google search.

      In any case, I'm sure it would make you a tentative candidate for the Darwin Awards.

      --
      www.timcoleman.com is a total waste of your time. Never go there.
    17. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Gerry+Gleason · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Most cars are pretty stable, even at 100, unless you are in a turn and somewhat near the limits. The example of a Porsche are particularly bad when you cut the throttle (i.e. the engine dies) in a turn. Lot's of Porsche turbos end up in the ditch with 5000 or less miles because the owner is not yet familiar with 'trailing throttle overstear' and end up backwards in a blink of an eye. Good drivers use this to go very fast through the turns.

      The real question is why would you want to fly when when being on the ground works pretty well. Whether autorotation is easy or hard, it requires skill beyond what is required to point a car down the road. Crashes quickly become fatal, and weather can kill you. I like to sail too, but I look a lot more closely at the weather than when I'm driving. It's just not as practical, and it never will be.

      When I was a kid, the long time traffic 'copter guy for WGN radio died in a storm. Stevie Ray Vaughn and several other musicians died shortly after takeoff from Alpine Valley. Even if the statistics of per mile or per hour risks were similar or better, I doubt that it would stay that way if people are using it for regular transport.

    18. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by dargaud · · Score: 2
      NO, the helocopter dies, and you autorotate down to the ground

      Yeah, right, tell that to my friends... And he was one of the very best pilots ever, having flown thousands of rescue missions in heinous weathers in the Alps. Power cut-off while taking off --> immediate crash.

      --
      Non-Linux Penguins ?
    19. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Feanturi · · Score: 1

      If you're going to bring the relative safety of cars into the discussion, you'll have to admit that there's a lot more room to dodge a collision in three dimensions than in two... and there's a lot less stuff to hit at 20,000 feet!

      I'm thinking of traffic similar to (though perhaps safer than) what was shown in the Fifth Element. I doubt that you would do urban travel at 20,000 feet, though I could be wrong. And you don't necessarily have 3 dimensions to work with in a helicopter that has failed. Your primary dimension is DOWN. I mentioned failure of controls, how do you expect to dodge anything with controls that don't work?

    20. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by dougmc · · Score: 2
      And most importantly, it assumes that you have either speed or altitude to work with. If you're hovering thirty feet up and you suddently lose power, you're going splat.

      Planes are a little better, because under normal conditions, you've always got some speed to work with (if you don't, the plane stalls.) Of course, the worst power-loss problems happen when you lose power on take off -- yes, you could land safely straight ahead, but people still try to make it back to the runway ...

    21. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Cirvam · · Score: 1

      Not sure if 'trailing throttle overstear' is the same thing as what I'm thinking of, but from what I've read in most Porsche history books, the reason most 911 Turbo's end up wrapped around trees is because the driver would floor it into a turn and as they hit the turn the turbo would kick in and give them way too much power. This was really true for the older turbos because the boost was either on or off and when it was on it was one hell of a ride. Newer turbos have Porsche Stability Control and all-wheel drive and the turbo is a bit more controled, so when those get wrapped around a tree its usually due the person being stupid (turning off the traction control in rain, etc (rain-xing the whole tire...))

      Anyway I'm wondering if we are talking about the same thing.

    22. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      to rebute

      Thats assuming you have room to decelerate, the wheels are still in one piece, the wheels on one side aern't locked, and your hydrolic brakes are functioning. There is plenty of footage of automobile accidents.

    23. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Moofie · · Score: 1

      OK, we'll just make you President for Life and ask you very nicely what you think we should be allowed to do. Freedom is overrated, inna?

      --
      Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!
    24. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by spike+hay · · Score: 2

      Even if the statistics of per mile or per hour risks were similar or better, I doubt that it would stay that way if people are using it for regular transport.

      The statistics for non-comercial air travel are significantly worse than cars.

      This is due to private pilot's inexperience, flying in more risky conditions than a 777 would fly in, less reliable aircraft, etc.

      --
      If you don't understand any of my sayings, come to me in private and I shall take you in my German mouth.
    25. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by spike+hay · · Score: 3, Interesting

      For commuter craft air traffic control I have always thought a good system would be to just assign different altitudes for different directions of travel. (I.E. 9,500 for S by SW, for example)

      For a good VTOL craft, there is an interesting concept that I have heard of. You could have a flying car (a la Blade Runner) based on Active Glow Discharge Plasma panels.

      This would work by having glow discharges between many paralell wires. This would of course cause an ordinary ion drift, producing minimal propulsion. But if you put a magnetic field between each wire, you cause the ions to take a curved path around the field. This greatly speeds things up.

      Through this method, (being developed by NASA) you can accelerate air a couple hundred meters per second. The up side of this is that the glow discharge panels are very simple and would be cheaper than helicopters. So, basically, you could have a small gas turbine power supply to power the panels. The craft could actually lift off vertically. Then, during horizontal flight, wings could be extended for greater efficiency.

      --
      If you don't understand any of my sayings, come to me in private and I shall take you in my German mouth.
    26. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In fact, if you are trained in helicopters, your odds of walking away from a helicopter engine failure are much higher than walking away from a Cessna engine failure, unless you happen to be over an airport when the Cessna engine fails.

      Helicopters have a much higher survival rate when autorotating to a landing, because they have little to no forward momentum at touchdown. They can be safely landed in a small parking lot not much larger than their rotor disk.

      On the other hand, a Cessna has to stop after it touches down. It will touch down at 60 mph or so, and if it is careening through a rocky field, the odds of pilot and passenger injury are high. The structure is not designed with such car-oriented features like crush zones and airbags.

      All that said, if the pilot is a casual flyer, the odds are probably with the Cessna pilot. The trick isn't completing an autorotation properly in a helicopter, the real trick is starting one correctly. For example, after an engine failure in a Robinson R-22 helicopter (a very common two place private helicopter) the pilot has precisely 1.1 *seconds* to pitch the rotor blades into an autorotation attitude. If the pilot waits longer, the blades stall, fail catastrophically, and the helicopter becomes an anvil. The good news for the pilot is that he probably won't feel the impact with the ground, because the rotor has probably pierced the cockpit and sliced him in two as it departed the aircraft. Lovely.

      Cessnas et al are much more forgiving of the average pilot...

    27. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hmmm. I've played more Gunship than Flight Simulator, so I'll take the copter.

    28. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From thirty feet, a well designed seat and air bag can handle most of the impact. The post specifices hovering. This isn't a huge problem.

    29. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by netringer · · Score: 1
      For commuter craft air traffic control I have always thought a good system would be to just assign different altitudes for different directions of travel. (I.E. 9,500 for S by SW, for example)
      Umm... That's already in the rules.

      It's called the hemisperical altitude rule, but it only applies when the aircraft is flying more than 3000 feet above the ground.

      VFR (Visual Flight Rules - watching for other aircraft) aircraft fly at odd or even thousands altitudes plus 500 feet. IFR (instrument) fly at the exact altitude. The odd or even selection is based on direction of course, VFR is odd for courses of 360-North though 179 degrees - ie 5500, 7500, 9500, 11,500 feet MSL. Even for south and west through 359 degrees - ie 4500, 6500, 8500, 10,500 feet MSL. The odd/even choice is the opposite for IFR altitudes. http://www.californiaair.net/flightopps/FlightLeve ls.html
      --
      Ever dream you could fly? Get up from the Flight Sim. I Fly
    30. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Usquebaugh · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The emergency medical helo in London *ALWAYS* takes off by flying backwards up the autogyrate route. Appraently it's saved at least one crew who had an engine off during take off.

    31. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Gordonjcp · · Score: 2

      Simple. The car slows down, unless you're in a very sharp turn on wet roads. If you're in a front-wheel drive car you might notice the front tuck in a little.

    32. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Ozymandias_KoK · · Score: 1

      Ever been in a helicopter with wheels? They most certainly DO taxi. Even those that don't could be considered to as you might see them hover a few feet and fly slowly and carefully out of the "parking lot."

    33. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by GigsVT · · Score: 1

      Well, you see my point though, I think there is less chance of a minor runway type incident with a heli. If something does go wrong, it's more likely to be a major incident. (e.g. wire stikes, very common)

      --
      I've had enough abrasive sigs. Kittens are cute and fuzzy.
    34. Re:Easy prediction: It'll Never Happen. by Ozymandias_KoK · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I agree. But when somebody scrapes my bird with theirs, there is a helluva lot more expense of potential danger, too. :)

      Hmm...wonder if that could lead to more safety in general by burying all the above-ground cables. Less plane strikes, maybe less electrical danger to people, directly and indirectly.

  4. And what did Sikorsky do for a living? by Stinking+Pig · · Score: 5, Insightful

    When a man who makes helicopters tells you everyone needs a helicopter, doesn't it sound a lot like a man who makes computers telling you that everyone needs a computer?

    Or an Internet connection for that matter...

    --
    "Nothing was broken, and it's been fixed." -- Jon Carroll
    1. Re:And what did Sikorsky do for a living? by aiken_d · · Score: 2

      Fair enough, but you probably don't question it when a farmer says everyone needs food.

      The trick is determining whether the guy is telling everyone they need something because he's in the industry, or whether he's in the industry because everyone needs it. Of course, we can only make that distinction in hindsight.

      Still, I think you're dead on about Sikorsky. Everyone needs a helicopter? Apparently he didn't pay much attention to the way people drive in two dimensions.

      Cheers
      -b

      --
      If I wanted a sig I would have filled in that stupid box.
    2. Re:And what did Sikorsky do for a living? by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      I am still awaiting the XML Helicopter. I keep reading great things about it, but have yet to see one.

    3. Re:And what did Sikorsky do for a living? by CPT+Carl · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "When a man who makes helicopters tells you everyone needs a helicopter"

      Like the old saying goes, "If you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

      --
      THIS SPACE FOR RENT Call 1-800-555-CARL
    4. Re:And what did Sikorsky do for a living? by rusty0101 · · Score: 2

      Wasn't it the head of IBM who said "Three computers should be able to handle all the processing required of the entire country"? Of course this is the same company that told a certain presidential hopefull that he had sold his year's quota of computers within the first two weeks....

      --
      You never know...
  5. To quote Avery Brooks: by antis0c · · Score: 1

    Where are all the flying cars?? I was promised Flying Cars!

    I don't trust any future predictions. You think the US government will allow personal helicopers anytime soon after what happened 9/11? I think not. We're going to be dependent on ground transportation until theres no more ground to travel on.

    --

    ..There's a-dooin's a-transpirin'
    1. Re:To quote Avery Brooks: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you think that every helicopter is owned by the government? I got my pilot license after 9/11, and if I had more money I would have my own plane. No one will ever use planes or helicopters to replace cars, it takes too much training and they are not cheap. Plus, people are idiots and can barely drive, I rather keep them on the ground than in the air.

  6. Ground is better by Talennor · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The problem is that ground is better. Cars go quite fast enough, and while traffic is really bad the fact remains that after a small collision nobody falls to their deaths. And can you imagine the noise pollution from the rotors? Think of one of those things taking off from your neighbor's driveway! Cars are fine for me, where I don't have to worry about watching for other vehicles in 3D, hey it's hard enough when you don't have cars coming up from underneath you cutting you off! We're still on the ground all the time because it's just a better place to be.

    --

    //TODO: signature
    1. Re:Ground is better by Smidge204 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Quote: Cars go quite fast enough, and while traffic is really bad the fact remains that after a small collision nobody falls to their deaths.

      I don't know about you, but there have been many times where I've gone someplace by car spending over two hours on the road, knowing that a two-man ultralight or autogyro could have gotten me there in about 30 minutes. An ultralight aircraft (basically a glider with a lawnmower engine on it) with a 350 pound capacity will hold me, my equipment, and a small foldable bicycle to take me the rest of the way from wherever I land. (All you need is a hundred feet or so of open grass or roadway, too. Public parks and parking lots make a suitable landing strip).

      After landing, the craft folds up and can be "driven" over land using the propeller, making it easy to stash it in a regular parking spot or garage.

      Granted, it's not something I'd use on my regular commute, but something like that could come in handy, and I'm not the only person who could find a use for it.

      So the issue of use is not a problem, it's safety. Most people can't even drive as it is. But ultralights are actually safer than cars because of mass and speed issues. Low altitude power-deployed parachutes allow for safe landings even in a major collision. If you lose power, you glide back down (quickly, but controllably). All you need is proper training and licensing programs to (hopefully) keep the really incapable people out of the skys.

      As for mass-transit air, that's actually pretty popular, if a little expensive and awkward due to scheduling. But if you're going from New York City to D.C. in a hurry, you either take a shuttle turboprop out of LaGuardia.

      Besides, once private aircraft become even remotely popular, the roads will probably clear up a bit. Things balance out. Don't write it off so quickly.
      =Smidge=

    2. Re:Ground is better by efatapo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeah, and I'm sure plenty of people said...

      Horses work fine. Sure, the crap smells bad but can you imagine your neighbor pulling one of those loud things out of his house. Horses are fine for me where I don't have to worry about other cars coming at me at 70mph.

      Just like when I heard everyone saying word processors/type writers are fine. Or, dial-up modems are fine who needs cable.

      You only say this because cars are the social norm and to society Helicoptor/air travel is a fantasy. In 20 years your tune might change.

    3. Re:Ground is better by Feanturi · · Score: 1

      >Yeah, and I'm sure plenty of people said...

      >Horses work fine. Sure, the crap smells bad but can you imagine your neighbor pulling one of those loud things out of his house. Horses are fine for me where I don't have to worry about other cars coming at me at 70mph.

      Well you know, stop and think about that for a moment. Maybe they were right. I've never heard of a head-on collision involving horses. If you get run-down by a horse it's most likely because the rider is trying to hurt you. If you fall asleep on a horse, worst thing to happen is you might fall off or get thrown, or wind up somewhere you didn't want to go. The horse will be just fine, and won't just go plowing into whomever is in his way.

      Now of course cars are faster and far more comfortable, so I'm not giving up my vehicles any time soon, I love driving. But we've paid a fairly large price for this convenience, in the years since we've had it, haven't we? Today's discussion is about upping the ante, something I'm not sure I'm willing to support, however cool it might be.

    4. Re:Ground is better by BryanL · · Score: 1

      I think this as well at times. But then I think, this would work only if I were the only one in traffic to have this ability. If everyone had ultralights we would all be stuck in a mid-air traffic jam.

    5. Re:Ground is better by erpbridge · · Score: 1

      Of course, the horse has AI (actual intelligence)...

      When will we get vehicles in the consumer market at a reasonable price that have basic AI? I've seen news the past 10 years about successful tests run, so why isn't there at least a high priced version available on consumer market?

    6. Re:Ground is better by ealar+dlanvuli · · Score: 1

      Do you have any more information on these? I did a quick google but couldn't find much.

      Are the legal for a consumer, do you need to clear a flight plan? Can you just land anywhere? What speeds are we talking about? Is there anyplace it's illegal to fly? What altitude?

      --
      I live in a giant bucket.
    7. Re:Ground is better by Moofie · · Score: 1

      Two reasons. Infrastructure, and insurance. Roads aren't uniformly well-marked enough for the vision systems on those cars to work properly, and no insurance company is EVER going to give you a policy that a machine drives. It's hard to sue a machine.

      --
      Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!
    8. Re:Ground is better by Zarquon · · Score: 2

      [Cough] I don't think you've spent much time around horses.. when was the last time your car ran off at a tanjent at full speed because it saw a leaf blowing? Or that it went off and started attacking another car because it didn't like the set of it's mirrors? Or decided it didn't want to go somewhere and just stopped (well.. that one's debatable..)

      Besides, you get really strange looks going through drive-throughs.

      --
      "'Tis great confidence in a friend to tell him your faults, greater to tell him his." --Poor Richard's Almanac
    9. Re:Ground is better by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      If you mean ultralights, the best way to get more info would be to visit your local flight school and ask around. They might try to sell you on a private pilot license instead - that's where they make their money - but they're very likely to know the members of the local ultralight community, and be able to tell you who to call, especially if you mention you might want to pay them (the flight school instructors) for some meteo class time and/or theoretical classes. (Which *would* be a really good investment if you're gonna go ultralight flying anyway, hint hint.)

      The short of it is, just about anybody can fly an ultralight after a couple dozen hours of instruction from a certified ultralight instructor, but you can't fly them just anywhere. Don't plan on landing at - or even going near - particularly busy airports; landing on private property is okay, so long as you have the landowner's permission; public land _should_ be fine so long as you don't make a mess or piss anybody off, but don't quote me on that.

      Technically, it's illegal to overfly crowds and developed areas, and the FAA will interpret that law as any gathering of one or more people and/or a single house, *if* you do something that pisses them off (that is, if you make a ruckus and get negative headlines, basically). There are other places it's illegal to fly, as well, and you should be thoroughly trained on the details before you're signed off for solo flight. Your local flight school people will know.

      You do not need to file a flight plan unless you want a search-and-rescue operation to be mounted should you fail to call in to close the flight plan on time - that's all flight plans are really for, anyway. As for speeds, the maximum allowed by law for an ultralight is - er, I forgot. Sorry. :-/ *Well* below a hundred knots, though, figure on maybe 60-80 mph airspeed as a normal cruise, possibly less. Altitude is largely constrained by visibility - ultralights are VFR only, so you *must* be able to see the ground (including a clear horizon) at all times, and you can't go even near clouds.

  7. This is bogus by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    See the prior post in thread about autorotating.

    Learn a little about helos before ranting about how they work.

  8. fuel issues by KevinMS · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'll admit i'm not expert on this. But i do believe the faster you push something through the air the less fuel efficient it becomes. Also, keeping something In the air requires a lot of fuel. You'd think that cramming a lot of poeple into a fast flying machine would eventually become fuel efficient the more you put in, but its a fact that traveling by train is much more fuel efficient than a 767.

    My car goes about 300-400 miles on a 15 gallon tank of gas. Imagine how much gas a any kind of helicopter burns in 300 miles keeping itself up and pushing itself through the air, especially with all the crazy turbulence the roters makes.

    I have no doubt that fuel will get cheaper in the future and global warming is bunk, but i dont want a bunch of hippies bugging me.

    --
    Sneakemail is to spam filters what an ounce of prevention is to a pound of cure.
    1. Re:fuel issues by trotski · · Score: 1

      > I have no doubt that fuel will get cheaper Oh bollocks.... gas prices won't go down even to early 90's levels, ever. I work in the oil industry and I can tell you that despite what you may think, there is not an unlimited amount of oil on the planet, it's sad but true. As fuel usage increases in the world and reserves go down, we may be face with a lakc in 50 or 60 years. It's sad but true, so don't expect gas prices to go down, because you'll be sadly disappointed.

      Sig? quel est sig?

      --

      "Entropy is the bad-guy, and he is everywhere"
    2. Re:fuel issues by AxelTorvalds · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Energy is the exact problem. That's the one thing that holds a large chunk of the 20th century "future ideas" back. There are no problems making really small and powerful computers, other than energy, suppliying it and getting rid of it.

      No reason we couldn't have personal planes, accept energy.

      If we create room temperature super conductors and cold fusion in a bottle then it all might happen when we've got energy to just piss away but until then I wouldn't hold my breath.

    3. Re:fuel issues by MyHair · · Score: 1

      but its a fact that traveling by train is much more fuel efficient than a 767.

      Are you sure? I'm not an expert either, but let's say next week a genie builds us a railroad bridge from the US to England and Japan over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Would it be more fuel efficient to take the trip via a 767 full of people by 767 or by a train of the same capacity?

    4. Re:fuel issues by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Uh oil is a legacy technology. Any company that wants to compete in the next 50 years is moving away from it, heck my *lawnmower* from John Deer dosen't even use oil anymore except as lube (newer models are supposed to use a silicate for that even).

      I repeate Oil might have been the "Easiest" energy source for a immature world, but it is by no means the best solution for anything. No I am not a member of the green party, and my primary motivation for these statments aern't even considerate of the enviromental effects of oil (though those are important)

    5. Re:fuel issues by KevinMS · · Score: 1

      Interesting you believe this and work in the oil industry. I'll guess you work in the 'western' half of the worlds oil industry. This industry also believes that oil deposits come from biological sources. On the other hand, russian oil scientists believe that oil comes from geological sources and have believed this for many years and they have scientific proof including creating oil in experiments from calcium carbonate from geological sources. The western world refused to believe this and western geologists get very upset at these theorys, almost to the point of being hostile. The fact is, the world is full of oil.

      --
      Sneakemail is to spam filters what an ounce of prevention is to a pound of cure.
    6. Re:fuel issues by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oil reserves expressed as years of supply at current use rates, are higher now than they were 20 years ago. Use is not going down, but we are finding new reserves and figuring out how to get more oil out of existing fields.

      There is technology in oil exploration.

    7. Re:fuel issues by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While not the most efficient, a 747 is one of the most economical (in energy terms) modes of transportation when expressed in terms of cost per seat mile.

      Induced drag (that drag caused by the need to keep the plane in the air) is small compared to the parasitic drag (from pushing the air molecules out to the way etc).

      The airlines probably understand better than anyone the tradeoff between energy requirements (and cost) and how customers value their time.

    8. Re:fuel issues by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 2
      The airlines probably understand better than anyone...

      Thanks, you really made me laugh! I doubt very much that the airlines understand anything about their business, especially when it comes to the "customers!"

  9. Perhaps we should wait just a bit longer. by jlrowe · · Score: 1
    I have beel watching the "Sky Car" for about 6 years, and it is getting close. I won't be able to afford it right away, but I sure do want one!!! It would save me a lot of time getting to work!

    You gotta see the pictures and info on the website. This thing is cool!

    http://www.moller.com/skycar/

  10. We have the technology by kurt555gs · · Score: 1

    The reason we arent all flying is the greed of the evil insurance companies preventing this and many other worthwile projects.

    The (the miserly, greedy, evil) insurance companies wouldnt care if all inovation would stop so long as it would increase their profits.

    --
    * Carthago Delenda Est *
  11. Only rich visionaries will get helicopters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,9379,00. html

  12. will happen vs could happen by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    We've got cars like the new Audio made of all lightweight alluminum. We've got advanced engines like the VW 1.9L TDI that gets over 40mpg(same as Toyota's low hybrid electric car) and Mazda's new rotory coming in the RX8.

    Other than the reasons others have metioned (basically cars are easier to drive and accendents are less fatal) is there any reason if there was demand for millions of helicopters per year we all couldn't have personal helicopters instead of cars?

    1. Re:will happen vs could happen by ealar+dlanvuli · · Score: 1

      if there was demand for millions of helicopters per year we all couldn't have personal helicopters instead of cars?

      If the FCC wasn't in the pockets of the air industry, we would already have lots more air travel than we do.

      You would be suprized how hard it is to use even a glider in public airspace.

      --
      I live in a giant bucket.
    2. Re:will happen vs could happen by psamuels · · Score: 1
      If the FCC wasn't in the pockets of the air industry, we would already have lots more air travel than we do.

      What? General aviation is somehow influenced by the interests of the Federal Communications Commission?

      And here I thought aviation would be more the business of the FAA.

      --
      "How can you claim that you are anti-crack, while still writing a window manager?" — Metacity README
    3. Re:will happen vs could happen by ealar+dlanvuli · · Score: 1

      yeah that was a prety bad one

      *hangs his head in shame*

      why do we have to have so damn many 3 letter acronyms anyway?? :)

      --
      I live in a giant bucket.
    4. Re:will happen vs could happen by psamuels · · Score: 1
      *hangs his head in shame*

      Well, believe it or not, I actually make the same mistake (FCC vs FAA) in conversation from time to time. I don't know why. I probably have less excuse than you, working as I do at an institute that gets a lot of FAA funding. (And no FCC funding.)

      --
      "How can you claim that you are anti-crack, while still writing a window manager?" — Metacity README
  13. Mistakes happen :) by Fnagaton · · Score: 1

    People make mistakes when they predict something. Bill Gates for example was predicting a stable and crash proof version of Windows by now... Look what we still have. ;-) --- Connection terminated --- --- Blue screen of Death ---

    --
    Martin Piper
    Owner - ReplicaNet and RNLobby
    1. Re:Mistakes happen :) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks for the sig. Now that I know that a major dip-shit is in charge of Replica Net, I know to not touch it with a 10 foot Cat5 cable!

    2. Re:Mistakes happen :) by Fnagaton · · Score: 1

      If you had the courage to back that statement up without being anonymous then it would actually mean something. However because you are anonymous and your statement has no factual basis then it is worthless.

      --
      Martin Piper
      Owner - ReplicaNet and RNLobby
  14. Trying to keep up by charlie763 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think it's a good thing that futurists predictions are further ahead than reality. We might be more inclined to push ourselves if we think we are behind schedule...

    --
    Welcome to the land of the free...pay toll ahead...no photography...please open your bag...
  15. Flying cars are possible, but not a good idea by danimrich · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Every now and then, some popular technology magazine writes an article about some former aircraft designer (etc.) who built a flying car that operates on gasoline.

    The problem is that while one can reasonably well observe what happens in 2D, this is hardly possible in 3D. I would suggest that there is an evolutional reason for us to be moreless focused onto what lies ahead and on the ground rather than looking up into the air.
    Even with 2D driving, there are a lot of fatal traffic accidents. I wouldn't want to imagine what happens if I run out of gas 100 yards above the streets of Manhattan/a lake/someone's house etc..

    Flying cars would only really make sense if one could fly not just around roads, but also cross-country, which would probably cause privacy and safety concerns and raise noise levels.

    --
    where's all that Karma?
  16. Sikorsky ignored a number of problems by dcavanaugh · · Score: 2

    1. Cost (capital and operating)
    2. Pilot skill (individuals flying their own?)
    3. Navigation
    4. Parking (surely not in a multi-level garage!)
    5. Air traffic control
    6. Bad weather
    7. Night

    Aside from navigation and air traffic control, most of these problems are as serious today as when the helicopter was invented.

    Sikorsky was too smart not to realize that it was never going to be a mass-market item. He was either fooling investors or fooling the government into subsidizing a project.

    If we were so motivated, we could automate enough of helicopter operation to solve problems 2/3/5, but 1/4/6/7 will not go away.

    1. Re:Sikorsky ignored a number of problems by mbstone · · Score: 1

      8. Stupidity

      Look, if society (read: corporations) used the technology we already have, we would have:

      A. Automated cars that you don't have to drive;
      B. Automated foodmakers that could make, say, a simple breakfast;
      C. Automated body-scrubbers that would use less soap and water than your average bath or shower;
      D. Clothing that is custom made to fit your laser-scanned carcass;
      E. Cell phones, fax machines, microwave ovens, TV remotes, alarm clocks, and VCRs whose features are designed such that people of ordinary intelligence can actually use and benefit from them.


      The other drawbacks to the widespread use of personal aircraft are:
      9. NIMBYs (on the average, two U.S. general aviation airports close every week (source: Aircraft Owners & Pilots Assn); and
      10. The FAA.

    2. Re:Sikorsky ignored a number of problems by Insanity · · Score: 1

      I think all the issues you mention could be solved. Just take the user out of the piloting completely; have it computer driven from start to finish. The user should enter no more than a destination. A computer doesn't care much about weather or visibility, with the possible exception of high winds.

      I envision a system of "roads" wherein all traffic in a particular direction has its own plane in 3D space. Everyone heading east flies at 1200m, everyone north at 1300m, and so on. 8 planes, N, NW, W, etc, should provide enough flexibility. Plane changes would be easily handled by the computer that would make sure you're not colliding with anything below or above you.

      If you're headed from NY to DC, there could be a dedicated corridor at a seperate altitude so you're not constrained to the 8 directions on a compass when a more direct route is available.

      The real challenge is writing the software to do all of this, and making sure it scales.

      As for parking... there's no reason why helicopters couldn't have wheels and a small electric motor to drive them at walking speed to their parking spaces.

      And finally, cost goes down with economies of scale.

      Helicopters will never be practical for private transport on a large scale, we're in agreement on that, but for different reasons. The regulatory hurdles, the complete redesign of infrastructre, and the fundamental change in the way we think about personal transportation are issues that are probably too large to ever overcome. Not to mention the deafening roar that's typical of a helicopter.

      --
      Nix absolutably seriousness.
    3. Re:Sikorsky ignored a number of problems by dcavanaugh · · Score: 2

      "8. Stupidity [items A-E]"
      The free market discourages these things because the low-tech versions are cost-effective. Consider the hybrid gas/electric cars. Until gas costs over $3/gallon, the fuel savings won't cover the increased cost of the car or the replacement batteries. Of all the ideas you suggested, none of them would cost less than the low-tech alternatives.

      BTW, I have a cell phone, fax machine, microwave oven, TV remote, alarm clock, and VCR. I use all of them without difficulty. How much would I pay for an "easier to use" version? Zero.

      "9. NIMBYs [closing airports?]" The website you quoted starts off with a story of general aviation airports closing in Hawaii. Has it occurred to anyone that the value of land is the key issue? When condos, malls, and parking garages generate more revenue than small airports, what do you think is going to happen?

      "10. The FAA" Guilty as charged. If they attacked the cost of aviation as vigorously as safety, we could have more flying and less driving, for the same money. Instead, the cost of general aviation is killing the industry and making small airports more attractive for other uses. Of course, I can't think of any examples of the federal government reducing the cost of anything.

      Even if we go hog-wild deploying technology in pursuit of computer-assisted flight, it will still cost too much, humans will still be human, the weather will still interfere, and it gets dark at night. That's why general aviation is for smart people with deep pockets who fly in good weather, mostly during the day. The rest of us fly commercial, and only when it makes economic sense.

    4. Re:Sikorsky ignored a number of problems by dcavanaugh · · Score: 2

      Like I said, navigation, air traffic control, and pilot skill can be addressed. However, unless they have folding rotor blades, the choppers will take up more space than cars, and will not co-exist in a traditional parking garage. Parking a car is enough of a hassle as it is.

      What kills the idea is that the low-tech, non-automated helicopter (or airplane) is priced way beyond the reach of the average consumer. Private aviation was not a cost-effective concept to begin with. Adding all of these gizmos isn't going to make it any cheaper.

    5. Re:Sikorsky ignored a number of problems by Insanity · · Score: 1

      Don't underestimate economies of scale. Helicopters are more expensive to make than cars, but cars are sold at a very generous profit margin. I'm convinced that helicopters, priced at what a high end auto costs, could be profitable, albeit with smaller margins than luxury cars.

      Helicopters are not that much more complex than cars. We just have decades of experience with enormous scale production of the latter.

      Not that this makes any difference. We can't switch to hydrogen fuel cells for automotive use because we can't change the infrastructure to support it. That's a very minor update compared to the complete redesign of, well, everything to accommodate personal flight. Barring trek-style transporters, nothing will get us off the ground for our daily commutes.

      --
      Nix absolutably seriousness.
  17. Nothing like a vertical take off... by woogieoogieboogie · · Score: 2, Funny

    from your driveway and blowing the neighbors garbage cans over, creating huge dustclouds and taking out a few powerlines on the way to work. that will make you popular with the neighbors!!!!

    --
    ... Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed...
  18. Predictions vs Futuristic Fantasy by mjhans · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I see many posts here about things like "2001" and other futuristic stories that now seem quaint, laughable, etc.

    There's an important distinction between predicting the future and telling a story in the future. Movies such as 2001 just randomly pick a date that's "in the future" -- a time far enough away (from when it was made) that the viewer/reader can adequately suspend disbelief for the purposes of the story. Any date, really, will suffice.

    You can laugh at people who make bona fide predictions that "X will happen by year Y". Those are people who actually believe such things.

    But when taking in entertainment, always remember that Star Wars actually has the best blanket statement to suspend disbelief: that whole "In a galaxy far, far away" bit is nondescript but serves all purposes.

    - Matt

  19. Carter Copters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    There is a very group at work to fix some of the most serious problems with helicopters. Very promising stuff. See http://www.cartercopters.com/

  20. Helicopter Bus Services.... by trotski · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Well, a limited number of places have something like that. For example, where I live (Victoria, BC) theres a helicopter service between here, Vancouver and Seattle, runs every hour. The use little, 12 person choppers.

    This is however a very special case because it takes 3 hours to get from Victoria to Vancouver by land/water even though they're only 35 kilometres apart.

    Most cities that are faily close together such as say Washington and Baltimore it just makes more sense to take a bus or a train, since it's far cheeper and there is no significant time advantage. (30 min by train as opposed to 10 min by helicopter). It just isn't worth it. Until the price of gas goes down (which it probably won't) or we find alternative fuel sources, there will never by any significant helicopter commuter services. Sig? Quel est sig?

    --

    "Entropy is the bad-guy, and he is everywhere"
  21. 2 words: by MrEd · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Soccer moms.


    At least now a sturdy fence can keep them out...

    --

    Wah!

  22. The right tool for the right job by Rik+van+Riel · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Flight (still) has too much takeoff and landing overhead. Even if it was faster, people would go with the more convenient transport anyway.

    Btw,futurists often seem to forget about people. Even if there were machines that would cook for me, why would I want it? After a stressful day of looking at source code and trying to fix bugs I like to go to the kitchen, grab a beer and start cooking. I'm not going to pay to let some machine take away my hobby!

    1. Re:The right tool for the right job by MyHair · · Score: 1

      After a stressful day of looking at source code and trying to fix bugs I like to go to the kitchen, grab a beer and start cooking.

      Are you looking for a roommate?

    2. Re:The right tool for the right job by quacking+duck · · Score: 1

      Damn straight!

      Get the machine to do the coding.

    3. Re:The right tool for the right job by Ozymandias_KoK · · Score: 1

      However there are quite a few people who would like not to have to cook, so they can spend their time with their hobby, instead...

      Stay out of the "well, this is what I want" trap. :)

  23. Safety by Inominate · · Score: 2, Informative

    One reason aircraft will never be as common as cars, is the maintainance involved. Aircraft must be constantly maintained, whereas cars can be ignored. The other is ease, a bad driver will cause accidents or close calls, a bad pilot can kill many people.

    The truth about modern flight is, it's so safe that the only thing that will bring any plane down unsafely is a bad pilot or a catastrophic failure. This is why people don't survive airline crashes. An airliner doesn't crash unless it explodes, or has a major structural failure.

    The hardware isnt much of an issue, but cost and training required is.

    1. Re:Safety by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      I don't think it is the danger as much as the insurance and lawsuits that would go with the danger. Cars don't crash into houses and malls very often. There are probably roughly 10 serious accidents every day in a medium-sized city. If these were helicopters then houses would be munched daily.

      And now with the Osama thing it is out of the question.

      Plus, cars and public transportion are still far cheaper and less poluting.

    2. Re:Safety by goaliemn · · Score: 1

      I don't know if small planes are much more polluting than cars.. yes, per hour they put out more pollution, but you're also going twice as fast, in a straight line, as opposed to a car following roads..

      Cost per mile in a 172 I fly is approx. $.45/mi. Cars aren't much less, but take much longer to cover the same distance.

    3. Re:Safety by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But copters are less fuel efficient than planes

  24. "Futurists", hah! by hyacinthus · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I am reminded of one of David Brin's essays in which he bashes George Lucas and Star Wars. (Let it be said that I've bashed Lucas and Star Wars myself a few times.) At one point Brin delivers himself of the self-serving observation that while Lucas and others like him are obsessed with the past, Brin himself looks to the future.

    Yes, indeedy, where would we be if it weren't for forward-thinkers like Dave Brin? Just about the same place, I guess. Science fiction writers' track record for predicting the future isn't really any better than that of your average "Weekly World News" fortune-teller, except that the fortune-tellers tend to risk their predictive powers on such quotidian affairs as whether Brad Pitt will stay married to whoever that ditz is from "Friends", while SF writers confine themselves to lofty predictions about the fate of human society and technology. Now and again, one of the sci-fi boys will accidentally get something right, or sort of close (thus has Asimov been credited with "predicting" pocket calculators), as opposed to all those other writers who "predicted" that we'd still be using slide rules),.

    As I see science fiction writers and futurists, we could have done without the whole clan of them and it wouldn't have made a scrap of difference. But one can say the same thing about any entertainment--I don't propose that entertainment _per se_ is useless, only that SF is just that, entertainment.

    hyacinthus.

    1. Re:"Futurists", hah! by Saeger · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Don't be so quick to dismiss futurists - even when their predictions turn out to be incredibly offbase, they still serve to inspire the actual work of making the future happen.

      Here's how you make BAD PREDICTIONS:

      • Ignore the scientific facts, or guess.
      • Forget to ask whether anyone wants the projected product or situation.
      • Ignore the costs.
      • Try to predict which company or technology will win.

      Flying cars could never have been LESS expensive than cars (fighting gravity costs more energy), and safely flying the things in 3D virtually requires guidance computers that are only now just capable.

      --

      --
      Power to the Peaceful
    2. Re:"Futurists", hah! by Cryogenes · · Score: 2
      As I see science fiction writers and futurists, we could have done without the whole clan of them and it wouldn't have made a scrap of difference. But one can say the same thing about any entertainment--I don't propose that entertainment _per se_ is useless, only that SF is just that, entertainment.
      I suggest you should have a look at "1984" by George Orwell and "A Brave New World" by Aldous Huxley.

      Do you believe in death after life?

  25. Re:Easy prediction: It'll two words by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    two words concerning autorotation

    tail rotor

  26. Affordable personal flight is still just a dream.. by kcbrown · · Score: 5, Insightful
    There are several reasons point-to-point personal flight isn't here yet (and may not ever be).

    • Technological limitations, including:

      1. Engine technology: a flying vehicle that can't glide requires highly reliable engines. Today that means turbines, but turbines are very inefficient compared with internal combustion engines. They do produce enough power to enable aircraft to fly very high, which does a lot to offset their inefficiency, since true speeds increase as you go higher.
      2. Form factor: without highly reliable engines, you'll need to be able to glide (or autorotate) to a landing. That means having airfoils on the vehicle, which greatly increases the overall size of the vehicle.
      3. Navigation and collision avoidance: only recently, with high speed miniature computers, has the technology become available to make going point to point in 3D in high traffic situations a possibility. Without it, the risk of a midair collision is too high to make it feasible for everyone to own a flying vehicle and to fly them from their homes.

    • Regulatory problems: personal aviation would be a much more popular and widely available means of travel if it weren't for the FAA. Many believe that they are necessary to ensure safety of flight, and I don't disagree with that role, but their method of regulating the industry has all but killed off personal aviation:

      1. Personal aircraft have increased in price in real, inflation-adjusted dollars by a factor of two or more in the last 30 years, and are not any safer despite their insane prices.
      2. The safety of personal aircraft has not changed significantly in the last 30 years, but the safety of automobiles has changed drastically, proving that the NHTSA's method of regulating the industry (requiring that vehicles have a minimum set of equipment and requiring that they pass certain safety tests, but requiring nothing else) is far superior to the FAA's.

        The FAA requires all of the following:

      3. The manufacturer's design must be certified by the FAA. The FAA requires specific behavioral characteristics from the aircraft.
      4. The manufacturer's manufacturing process must be certified by the FAA. The FAA must approve the materials you use, the build procedures you use, the quality control measures you use, etc.
      5. Any design changes must be approved by the FAA
      6. Changes to the manufacturing methods used to build the aircraft, including materials, techniques, machinery, etc., require that the entire manufacturing system go through recertification.
      7. Aftermarket modifications, which includes installation of new navigation and communication equipment, require the same basic certification by the FAA that airplanes require.

      8. Owners are not allowed to make any modifications themselves, nor are they allowed to do any but the most minimal maintenance (anything more requires a signoff from an FAA-approved maintenance technician, which usually means you may as well have them do the work).

      The end result is that the FAA has made it almost impossible for manufacturers and aircraft owners to improve their products. That means that aircraft safety can't improve, nor can the cost. So the only way to significantly improve an airplane's safety or cost is for the manufacturer to come out with a completely new design go through the entire certification process outlined above.

    • Public perception of flight. Many people believe that equipment failures in the air will result in instant death. For instance, many believe that if the engine of an airplane stops, the airplane will fall out of the sky, when the reality is that the pilot will be able to glide the airplane to a landing. Loss of an engine is a life-threatening issue only over mountainous terrain.

      People believe these things about aviation because the mass media (movies, news reports, etc.) has portrayed aviation in this light in order to make the news more spectacular and to make movies more exciting. But of course, that kind of excitement isn't what you're after when you're flying for real.

    The bottom line is that I don't think affordable personal aviation is ever going to happen because I don't believe the FAA will ever let it happen. The trend for the past 30 years has been for airplane prices to increase while at the same time production volume has decreased. These are the symptoms of a dying market.

    To resurrect affordable personal aviation, a large manufacturer (like Toyota) will have to get into the game. It will require an investment of billions (most of that will go into the mass production machinery required) and at least a couple of decades. The manufacturer will have to sell moderately capable (150 knots, 1000 mile range, 18,000 foot service ceiling, 4 seats), simple to fly airplanes for between $50,000 and $100,000. They will have to manufacture their own engines because the current manufacturers are still building engines that were designed back in the 1940's, using 1940s production techniques, for a minimum of $20,000 apiece. This will kill just about any other airplane manufacturer, who won't be able to adapt themselves to that kind of competition because the FAA won't let them. It will seriously depress the used airplane market, because nobody in their right mind would pay $70,000 for a 30-year-old 120-knot 4-seater when they can get a 150-knot brand new 4-seater for the same price.

    It'll be opposed by everyone: the FAA because they're 0wn3d by the airlines, the airlines because they'll lose a lot of short to medium range business, and many current aircraft owners, who view their aircraft as investments (used aircraft currently appreciate, not depreciate).

    But that's what it'll take to make affordable personal aviation a reality.

    --
    Use 'slashdot stuff' in the subject line in any email you send me if you want to get past the spam filter.
  27. Ummm, it's illegal by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm really surprised no one seems to have mentioned this, but, it's illegal to fly an aircraft less than 500 feet over a populated area. Meaning you can't land in your driveway or downtown. There is absolutely no infra-structure in place for this kind of thing. Do you think that our government would actually support this?

  28. An experiment... by Scratch-O-Matic · · Score: 5, Interesting

    1. Take the idiot who cut you off this morning with no turn signal and no glance in the mirror while pulling curlers out of her hair and talking on her cell phone.

    2. Drag her from her car like you wanted to anyway.

    3. Put her in a helicopter with a failed engine and see how well she does autorotating.

    As I pilot, I think that personal flight will occur someday, but only after these two prerequisites are achieved:

    1. Antigravity, or some propulsion system that is so simple and efficient that falling out of the sky is not going to happen no matter how inattentive the pilot, and
    2. An automatic navigation system that will keep all the vehicles in well-defined "lanes" just as they are now.

    Needless to say, I think we have a ways to go yet.

    --


    Evil is the money of root.
    1. Re:An experiment... by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Antigravity, or some propulsion system that is so simple and efficient that falling out of the sky is not going to happen no matter how inattentive the pilot....

      That is a real bummer about anti-gravity. All the other "fundimental forces" have a negative version of them (plus, minus), EXCEPT gravity. If it had a negative like magnetism, then we could simply strap on a backpack with anti-gravity particles and a small propeller and float up onto work.

      The fact that gravity is the only force without a (known) negative version puzzles many physics researches. Gravity stumps them in general.

      Then again, we don't have to commute to work in most cases if most people, especially managers would just get used to the concept of telecommuting and rented satellite offices.

    2. Re:An experiment... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All right then... come on SQUARE ROOT of gravity!

    3. Re:An experiment... by sielwolf · · Score: 3, Funny

      Hmmm. My personal suggestion is to replace your step three with this:

      3. Beat her like she stole a package.

      --
      What is music when you despise all sound?
    4. Re:An experiment... by AJWM · · Score: 5, Funny

      ... and see how well she does ...

      Just think of it as evolution in action.

      In actuality, most FAA regs are to protect (a) people (and property) on the ground and (b) passengers. They don't really care much if a pilot kills himself (or herself -- although most of the female pilots I've known were a little less reckless than the males) as long as he doesn't hurt anyone else. (Unless, of course, it was a commercially built (vs homebuilt) aircraft at fault. And then they're still more concerned with the other folks who might get hurt by similar.)

      --
      -- Alastair
    5. Re:An experiment... by Twirlip+of+the+Mists · · Score: 1

      The fact that gravity is the only force without a (known) negative version....

      Uhhh... did somebody find "negative versions" of the strong and weak interactions while I wasn't looking?

      Unless my knowledge of physics is as out of date as my education is-- a possibility I admit freely-- I believe the electromagnetic force is the only known force that has a repulsion component. The strong, weak, and gravitational forces are all attraction-only gizmos.

      --

      I write in my journal
    6. Re:An experiment... by VultureMN · · Score: 1

      You're right, but EM, strong, and weak have been linked, gravity hasn't been (yet). Of course, they only become equivelent when the temperature is something like 40 bazillion degress C, but hey.

      Anyway. Some current theories -do- claim a long-range force like gravity that is repulsive, but I'm not sure if the force is actually from/between objects, or a result of vacuum state. (I just read _The Last Three Minutes_, and I hope I didn't mangle stuff too badly. Funky cool book, and a fairly easy read for geeks w/out a lot of physics training.)

    7. Re:An experiment... by njchick · · Score: 1
      Weak force works both ways, and repulsion is actually more common, at least at low energy. Beta decay is repulsion, electron capture is attraction.

      Your knowledge of physics is seriously out of date.

    8. Re:An experiment... by Twirlip+of+the+Mists · · Score: 1

      Your knowledge of physics is seriously out of date.

      I'm sure this is true, but I understood that beta decay happens when a down quark in a neutron turns into an up quark plus a W boson, which in turn decays into an electron and an anti-electron neutrino. The electron-- along with the neutrino-- skitters off, and the original neutron (two down quarks and one up) becomes a proton (two up quarks and a down).

      Electron capture, as I understand it, happens when the inner orbital of an atom overlaps with the nuclear radius in such a way that, essentially, beta decay can happen in reverse. That is, a proton can "absorb" an electron, turning into a neutron.

      I guess you could say that beta decay is "replusion" and electron capture is "attraction," but isn't it more accurate to say that these are forward and backward instances of the weak interaction? It's more of a parity thing than a push-pull thing, right?

      But, of course, you're fundamentally correct. My understanding is seriously out of date. ;-)

      --

      I write in my journal
    9. Re:An experiment... by njchick · · Score: 1
      Terms "repulsion" and "attraction" are not applicable to interactions with the carriers of the force, such as photons and W bosons. These are macroscopic terms.

      An interaction between a photon and an electron is neither repulsion nor attraction. But the exchange of photons between electons tends on the average to change their momentum in such way that we can talk about repulsion.

      The same in the weak interaction. Interaction with W bosons is neither repulsion nor attraction, but the "macroscopic" effect can be considered as one. An important difference is that it's not just the momentum that changes, it's the kind of the particles. It cannot be otherwise since W bosons are charged.

    10. Re:An experiment... by Twirlip+of+the+Mists · · Score: 1

      Okay, you win. ;-)

      --

      I write in my journal
    11. Re:An experiment... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cocksmokers

    12. Re:An experiment... by kcbrown · · Score: 2
      In actuality, most FAA regs are to protect (a) people (and property) on the ground and (b) passengers.

      And ironically, in the vast majority of air crashes, the only people hurt or killed are the pilot and any passengers, while in the vast majority of automobile injury accidents, innocent bystanders (who are usually driving their own cars) are hurt or killed.

      Now given that, which would you say deserves more regulation: air travel or automobile travel?

      How typical of the government that the mode of travel that's inherently safer to innocent bystanders, and therefore the least in need of regulation, gets the most regulated (so much that it's killing the personal aviation industry).

      --
      Use 'slashdot stuff' in the subject line in any email you send me if you want to get past the spam filter.
    13. Re:An experiment... by ahfoo · · Score: 2

      Eh hem, I'd just like to point out that the single biggest blow to personal aviation in the twentieth century was Ronald and Nancy Reagan's War on Drugs and the unfortunate masses of Americans who supported this misguided policy. It's not about safety, it's about control. Personal air travel is like the internet for physical goods including contraband -- it knows no borders. One of the first actions in the War on Drugs was to immediately close thousands of private air strips most of which remain abandoned to this day to protect you and me from smoking a joint or doing some coke.
      There is every reason to believe that personal aviation will beome a huge industry as soon prohibition ends at the national level. Apparently many of the posters in this discussion are unaware that there already are giant "yellow dividers" all over America placed there after WWII in preparation for the immense popularity of personal aviation that was squashed in the name of drug control.

    14. Re:An experiment... by blank_coil · · Score: 1

      ...as soon prohibition ends at the national level.

      I'm just curious, why do you think it will end? You sound like you're very sure of yourself, so I was wondering if you had anything to back that up.

      --
      No sig for you.
    15. Re:An experiment... by vanyel · · Score: 2
      Then again, we don't have to commute to work in most cases if most people, especially managers would just get used to the concept of telecommuting and rented satellite offices.

      Personally, I'm holding out for teleporting...

    16. Re:An experiment... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Time is a loop sonny.

  29. No Fifth Element for me thanks by Feanturi · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I for one would be petrified to live in a city if everyone was flying. The average driver has enough trouble paying attention on the ground. And we may also assume that many of them barely squeaked by in their driver's exam. I shudder to think of personal flight units sailing all over the place, just waiting for the day I wake up to some asshole talking on his cellphone, crashing through my window. I don't believe that it is possible for this to be made properly safe. I will never trust computer navigation systems either, they're idiots too.

    Ginger scares the shit out of me as well. I'd love to pilot one, sure, but I don't need idiots whipping all over the place on these things. In all the various vehicles I've driven, I've never had an accident, for I always drive with the assumption that everyone else on the road is a complete idiot. Ie: Don't trust turn signals, speed changes, etc, without other cues to determine what the hell is really going on in that tiny brain behind the wheel. It seems to have worked so far.

    1. Re:No Fifth Element for me thanks by Saeger · · Score: 1
      I'm here to inform you that you've been diagnosed with borderline Road Rage. "Fucking Idiots! Ahh! I'm the smart one here! Smarter than any computer AI too! Ahh!!!" :)

      --

      --
      Power to the Peaceful
    2. Re:No Fifth Element for me thanks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      too bad he's right.

  30. What will happen: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Any of us who live to see the end of this emminent third world war will soon be running Linux on our desktops and laughing at the newly formed LoveBSD operating system that resulted after all of the BSD factions reconciled their differences realizing that war is bad.

  31. seriously... by keithmoore · · Score: 4, Insightful

    air traffic control is probably the biggest problem.
    the ATC system is already overtaxed in busy areas and part of how they cope is by discouraging general aviation. it's certainly technically feasible for personal aircraft to be reliable, affordable, and about as easy to fly as it is to drive a car IF you can get enough people to use them. but if you get enough people to use them you have a traffic management problem far worse than anything we've ever seen on the ground.

    face it, one reason we want to travel by air is to avoid traffic jams - but as soon as we put everyone in the air we need to find ways to keep everyone from hitting each other, and to do that we end up imposing the same kinds of constraints we have on the ground. at least on the ground we can often survive collisions between vehicles.

    Keith

    1. Re:seriously... by krenshala · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      The only thing wrong with your argument is that you can stack people in the air. There already exist proximity avionics that will alert the pilots of two planes flying close or in an intercept course that they need to watch out for another aircraft.

      Of course the idiot drivers would become idiot pilots when we finally do get general use aircraft that replace cars ... at least on the road you don't have as far to fall when some moron runs into you. ;\

      --

      krenshala

    2. Re:seriously... by keithmoore · · Score: 2

      There already exist proximity avionics that will alert the pilots of two planes flying close or in an intercept course that they need to watch out for another aircraft.

      indeed, though such devices are not cheap. perhaps economies of scale would drive the costs down, though the transponders and TCAS would also have to get a lot more sophisticated than they are now.

      also note that being able to survive the occasional screwup by ATC, pilot deviating from a clearance, or failure of a pilot to see and avoid another aircraft in visual conditions - is not anything like the same thing as being able to avoid hundreds of thousands of aircraft piloted by fellow commuters - everyone trying to get home from work.

    3. Re:seriously... by ealar+dlanvuli · · Score: 2

      I would say in the air you have an infinite number of possible paths, on ground you only have very expensive roads.

      I doubt the type of problems we have currently would be that major, also consider you can have *multiple* levels of traffic without overly expensive bridges.

      As for collision avoidance, I'm almost positive that a consumer vehicle in the range of $10k-$30k is capable of surviving a 10 story fall without any bodily harm, in fact the driver might be better off due to the delay before the "big crash". I think if we were to take to personal aircraft, it would probably be completly computerized control anyway (it *is* possible if you remove the pedestrian problem), so the only errors that could cause accidents would be mechanical failure.

      --
      I live in a giant bucket.
    4. Re:seriously... by anonymous+cupboard · · Score: 2
      The current ATC system is advisory, the pilot has ultimate control but the pilot submits flight plans in advance.

      Let us consider another way, increase the automation on the ground and let the pilot submit only a request to say they want to fly to B from A with a particular departure time slot. Given such things as a planes flying characteristics (speed, range, altitude ceiling) and the weather, it should be possible for ATC to create a route and to plan separations for other aircraft on the same route. Once in the air, ATC should be able to discuss progress with the plane's flight computer automatically and adjust routes accordingly in addition to collision avoidance.

      NASA apparently has a project looking at something like this, but I don't see it getting into production for at least another ten years, probably more given the infighting involved with major FAA ATC modernisation schemes.

    5. Re:seriously... by keithmoore · · Score: 2

      I would say in the air you have an infinite number of possible paths, on ground you only have very expensive roads.

      an infinite number of possible paths actually provides more opportunities for paths to cross. that and just because there are an infinite number of possible paths does not mean that everyone will choose a random path. most pilots with gps would prefer to fly a straight line between source and destination, which means that for popular source,destination pairs there are only a few paths. in some places, and at some times, paths are also constrained by weather and terrain.

      I'm almost positive that a consumer vehicle in the range of $10k-$30k is capable of surviving a 10 story fall without any bodily harm, in fact the driver might be better off due to the delay before the "big crash".

      making a vehicle that can survive the fall and still be light enough to fly cheaply is a serious engineering challenge. protecting the human body from such a fall is even harder. our skeletons are much better at dealing with horizontal impact than vertical impact. parachutes are probably the best bet, but they do add to the cost.

  32. ah, /., home of morons by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My car goes about 300-400 miles on a 15 gallon tank of gas. Imagine how much gas a any kind of helicopter burns in 300 miles keeping itself up and pushing itself through the air, especially with all the crazy turbulence the roters makes.

    -your uninformed post

    Robinson R-22 - 2 seat Piston Helicopter

    Cruise Airspeed @ 70% Power 110 MPH (96 kts)

    Average Fuel Consumption 8 to 10 GPH


    -people with a clue

    GMC K1500 Yukon Denali

    EPA MPG - 12 city, 15 highway


    -the EPA

    So if a R-22 goes 110 miles in an hour at around 9 gallons consumed while a Yukon goes 65 miles in an hour at around 15 gallons consumed, it's plain to see that you don't know what the fuck you're talking about. For a huge percentage of americans, driving around in a Yukon is completely acceptable; there's no way that you can say the main problem with a helicopter is fuel economy.

    I would say that the number one reason we don't all have helicopters is because of how much maintenance costs. A used R-22 isn't much more than a nice car, and it's really not that hard to learn to fly one, but it's unbelievably expensive to keep the thing in the air.

    1. Re:ah, /., home of morons by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "65 miles in an hour at around 15 gallons consumed"

      That would be about 4 MPG. I don't think any SUV gets such poor milage. In fact, I wonder if a tank is that bad.

      I think you've mixed up your units. MPG and GPH are not the same.

    2. Re:ah, /., home of morons by Ikari+Gendou · · Score: 1
      GMC K1500 Yukon Denali
      • Fuel Tank Size: 19 Gallons
      • Milage: 12 city, 15 highway
      • Best Total Milage: 228 city, 285 highway

      Robinson R-22

      • Fuel Tank Size: 20 gallon main (R-22 Beta has auxiliary tank)
      • Cruise Airspeed @ 70% Power: 110MPH (96kts)
      • Milage: 8-10 Gallons Per Hour
      • Best Total Milage: 250-220
      Of course, that might change based on increase/decreased power settings, weather, etc, etc..
      --

      Call on God, but row AWAY from the rocks!

    3. Re:ah, /., home of morons by KevinMS · · Score: 1

      Nice math.

      Now throw in the weight of your fat head and your fat wife and fat kids and see how good the milage is. Any why would you use a freak vehicle like a yukon to make your point?

      --
      Sneakemail is to spam filters what an ounce of prevention is to a pound of cure.
  33. One Problem With 'Choppers by MBCook · · Score: 3, Insightful

    One problem with choppers is that they are hard to fly. They are harder than planes, and planes are harder to fly than cars are to drive. This used to be a big problem, but I think we are fast approching a time when any idiot could fly a chopper using a force-ball (you know, some 6-axis controller) and having a PC do all the work of controlling individual axis. On a side note, I think that it's much more likey that gyrocopters will ever be common than 'standard' helecopters.

    --
    Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
  34. post 9/11 by Dankling · · Score: 0

    well in this post 9/11 world, people will think that its just another thing for terrorists to run into buidlings.

    --
    Slash-for-Thought
  35. You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by Ruger · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Well of course it assumes a few things...like the rotors are intact...but let's deal with only one emergency at a time. The truth is that it's extremely rare to loose a rotor. Much more likely is the loss of engine power, or hydraulics, or maybe a dynamic component malfunction. I've practiced 100's of autorotations without incident and suffered one intermediate gearbox malfunction. The gearbox malfunction resulted in a crash.

    As far as a place to land is concerned, any parking lot, large backyard, baseball diamond or other area large enough to accommodate the length of the bird is sufficient...something you can't say about any airplane. Also, helos glide pretty well. So finding a spot to set down isn't that hard unless you're in some really rugged terrain. If you're in flight flying low (nap of the earth) in anything and loose power you're toast (unless you have an ejection seat...not available on most civilian aircraft), but a good pilot doesn't need much altitude to successfully auotrotate and walk away from the landing.

    And there's no way you can compare loosing power in a car with loosing power in an aircraft...unless it's comparison out of ignorance.

    1. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did you 'loose' your dictionary, too?

    2. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Well of course it assumes a few things...like the rotors are intact?but let?s deal with only one emergency

      And the first emergency to deal with is your addiction to ?smart? quotes.

    3. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by Dr.+Spork · · Score: 2

      Ejection seat in a helicopter? Is that supposed to be a joke?

    4. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Ejection seat in a helicopter? Is that supposed to be a joke?

      There is actually at least one helicopter equipped with an ejection seat. It's Kamov Ka-50 (NATO name "Hokum") also called as the "Black Shark" or the "Werewolf". It has a typical Zvezda ejection seat but it has got a rocket booster which pulls the seat and the pilot out of the cockpit. Before that is possible, the blades of Ka-50's co-axial rotor are jettisoned with little explosive charges. That's why their flying tactics do not include close formation flying.

      PS. This post has been blatantly copied from this site

    5. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by kcbrown · · Score: 3, Insightful
      The truth is that it's extremely rare to loose a rotor.

      I think this is the first time I've ever seen the misspelled version of "lose" actually be applicable in its misspelled form...

      --
      Use 'slashdot stuff' in the subject line in any email you send me if you want to get past the spam filter.
    6. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As far as a place to land is concerned, any parking lot, large backyard, baseball diamond or other area large enough to accommodate the length of the bird is sufficient

      And the people who happen to be in the parking lot, large backyard, baseball diamond?

      One advantage to land vehicles is that they are generally limited to specific areas that can be equipped with traffic-safety measures. They are rarely a danger to people minding their own business on their own property. If we had mass air traffic literally no-where would be safe from the danger of 20 vehicle pile-ups or DUIs.

    7. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by SEWilco · · Score: 1

      I already posted so I can't moderate.
      Too bad I can't buy a Funny moderation point.

    8. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dude, you're thinking of yourself and not the general driving public. Yeah, like 2% of the population could handle flying cars. The rest can barely handle them on the ground. Flying cars will NEVER happen because people would never trust a computer built to fly them, and they aren't capable of flying them themselves.

    9. Re:You're comparing a car to an aircraft? by BlueUnderwear · · Score: 2
      Before that is possible, the blades of Ka-50's co-axial rotor are jettisoned with little explosive charges.

      I seem to remember that other types of helicopters solve the same problem by ejecting sideways rather than up.

      --
      Say no to software patents.
  36. Obligatory joke by WetCat · · Score: 1

    1. Make a general-purpose helicopter
    2. ...
    3. Profit!!!

  37. Aren't we already there? by LordJoe · · Score: 1
    Perhaps I'm just not taking the article literally enough, but haven't we been in the "air age" for the last twenty years or so? Sure, we can't pull a helicopter out of our garage and fly it directly to a friends house two towns over, but how many predictions are spot on?

    How many towns don't have a private airfield these days? How many people can't fly (yes fly, not be an airline passenger) if they're just willing to spend some time and money learning?

    I never got quite to the soloing point myself as far as a private pilot's license, but I could have completed it and could have then flew myself anywhere I liked whenever I liked -- one of the interesting things about learning to fly is that you have to learn where you cannot fly, not where you can.

  38. One Reason by jchawk · · Score: 3, Informative

    One thing that most people don't understand is how hard it is to fly a helicopter. It is not as simple as driving a car where you go and take a test to prove you understand the traffic laws and then go out on a road course with a DMV person for 15 to 20 minutes.

    It takes years of schooling in order to be granted a helicopter pilots liscense. This is very costly, and requires a lot of time.

    It is not uncommon for people to go to college for flight (airplanes), and once successfully passing their flight exams to go on and study helicopter operation.

    My little sister is currently studying to be a commerical airline pilot and it will take her 4 years at the number flight school in the USA. Then if she wants to persue helicopters she has to take more classes and spent a lot more time gaining the airtime in a helicopter with an instructor, only then will she receive her helicoptiers liscense from the FAA. The FAA is strick and sometimes tough, and this is for good reason, would you trust any idiot with a piece of machinery like this? If they crash the thing into a crowded area they kill a whole lot people.

    Helicopters are not like cars, when you wreck a car, most of the time you can survive, or if you die, you don't kill anyone else. When you crash a helicopiter you are probably automatically dead.

  39. Helicopter vs Porche by nsushkin · · Score: 1

    Speaking of Helicopters and Porsches, you can get a decent 2 seater helicopter for less money than a decent Porsche.

    Compare for yourself, $165 grand for a Robinson R22 Beta II helicopter versus $180 grand for a 2002 Porsche 911 GT2.

    In terms of fun per dollar, a helicopter beats a Porsche any day!

    1. Re:Helicopter vs Porche by PD · · Score: 2

      165 grand wouldn't get you a decent Porsche. It'd get you about 4 decent Porsches. Or one hella Porsche.

    2. Re:Helicopter vs Porche by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      great after 12 years of not wanting a porche, now I want a hellaporsche.

      Man that looks nice. What was the matter with roads again?

  40. Never going to happen by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who would be stupid enough to give EVERYONE a civilian cruise missile that allows terrorists to blow up buildings? Forget about relying future US military to save your property, because even if they can intercept flying cars in time, the raining debris is still going to kill a lot of people. No government in the right mind is going to let 'air age' to happen.

  41. Inventor prophecies don't come true... how odd by wadetemp · · Score: 2

    Sikorsky wasn't really the inventor of the helicopter; the idea had been around for a long time before he got his hands on it, and some workable helicopter prototypes had even been built. But he is widely regarded as being the one who really got helicopters "off the ground" so to speak.

    It's not like the guy was totally detached from profit or fame attached to the technology. He would have greatly benefited from what he "predicted." Therefore, this prediction is not much more than an ad for his life work.

    It's kind of like if Linus said that in 80 years everyone would be running Linux. Nice wish for him, nice wish for us, ain't gonna happen. :)

    1. Re:Inventor prophecies don't come true... how odd by pyrrho · · Score: 1

      of course not... they will run other kinds of Unix, most of which will merely be related to linux.

      --

      -pyrrho

  42. Spoken like someone who's... by Ruger · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ...never piloted an aircraft. The glide characteristics of most airplanes do not allow for "miles" of unpowered flight. A Cessna has a glide ratio of about 9:1 @ 90 KIAS. That means you can go forward 9 feet for every foot you drop. 1,000 feet up equals 9,000 feet forward. Hardly miles! Also, without power your control surfaces do not work as well and a stall is a fairly typical result...unless you've spent a lot of time training for engine failure.

    As someone pointed out below, in a helo you have a lot of energy stored in your wings (the rotors) when you loose engine power and helos don't stall in flight. As you "drop like a rock" you can increase the "power" in your wings and use that power as you approach the ground you can trade that power for lift and reduce your rate of descent...landing at a very survivable rate. I've practiced 100's of these and experienced one real one. We landed hard but the bird and the crew were unhurt.

    1. Re:Spoken like someone who's... by PD · · Score: 2

      Give me a break. Airplanes do not have a stall as a typical result of an engine failure. You lose an engine, and you find a field. Big deal. Pilots are trained for this. Every pilot you run into will will be able to control their plane with no engine.

      And if you're cruising at 8000 feet, then you'd better be able to find a landing spot within 13 miles or so, because that's how far you can glide in a Cessna from 8000 feet.

      On the other hand, you've completely ignored the infamous "dead man zone" in a helo. Too low to autorotate, too high to survive. Oops. Nice crater.

    2. Re:Spoken like someone who's... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      1,000 feet up equals 9,000 feet forward. Hardly miles!
      9000 feet is well over a mile, almost 2 AFAIK.

      Also, without power your control surfaces do not work as well and a stall is a fairly typical result...unless you've spent a lot of time training for engine failure.
      One of the first things the flight instructor does to test you out is kill the motor on you, usually shortly after takeoff. STFU
  43. Xantus experimental kit-built powered-lift craft by nounderscores · · Score: 1

    here

    Cheaper than moller, and more conventional too.

    but with the problems with the osprey it would be interesting to see if a kit made to be simple for backyard construction can be more reliable than a defense contractor product assembled by dozens of skilled workers.

  44. See rotor. See rotor break. Fall, fall, fall. by shadowj · · Score: 2, Funny
    Not to mention if the rotor "departs the aircraft." A prop you can live without, but not a rotor.

    True enough. A helicopter mechanic (who may have been pulling my chain) once told me about a critical connector that he called a "Jesus bolt". Why? Because if that bolt lets loose, you're going to see Jesus.

    Playing devil's advocate, though... if you're going to talk about gross structural failures, you have to admit that there will be similar problems with other aircraft. If a wing falls off of your Cessna, you're going to be just as pissed, aren't you? What's the likelihood of a rotor going away compared to a wing going kaput?

    With that said, I think I'd prefer to be in a dead-stick Cessna, just as you would... but that's with today's helicopters. A liberal application of technology could go a long way toward fixing those shortcomings.

    --

    --Larry

    Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence

    1. Re:See rotor. See rotor break. Fall, fall, fall. by chamenos · · Score: 1

      "True enough. A helicopter mechanic (who may have been pulling my chain) once told me about a critical connector that he called a "Jesus bolt". Why? Because if that bolt lets loose, you're going to see Jesus."

      yup....to be precise the jesus nut/bolt, was the nut that holds the rotor to the airframe of the helicopter. i suppose if it came loose you could eject yourself out of the cockpit without getting sliced up :)

  45. I hope we'll see other technologies first... by km790816 · · Score: 2

    If you think about it, air travel is only good for long distances or where speed is vital.

    I think (and hope) that we will see more innovation around different land transportation, such as Segway-like devices for personal transport,
    monorail for intracity, and maglev for high capacity intercity/interstate transport. The last two are ideal because you don't the waste of having to carry the fuel they use or going fast enough to maintain lift.

    Air will still be more cost/time effective for transcontinential and transoceanic travel.

    1. Re:I hope we'll see other technologies first... by foniksonik · · Score: 2

      I'm thinking maglev vehicles myself. The infrastructure costs would be immense but after a heavy investment in e-magnet embedded roadways, etc. cars/vehicles using precisely tuned magnetic propulsion systems would really be cool and economical and pejorative, pejorative... plenty of technical issues to deal with but with current tech it would be possible barring the massive expense forementioned.

      --
      A fool throws a stone into a well and a thousand sages can not remove it.
  46. Re:Affordable personal flight is still just a drea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > Loss of an engine is a life-threatening issue only over mountainous terrain.

    Or over water.

    -AC cos I moderated here

  47. It's already happened, sort of by T.Hobbes · · Score: 4, Informative

    In Sao Paulo, Brazil, there are somewhere around 300 private helicopters that those who can afford them use to avoid traffic and crime. They use them just like the plebes use cars. The best article I found on the topic is at aviation today (here).
    Of course, having 300 'copters in a city of unpteen million isn't exactly what the man predicted, but the patter of use is consistent.

    1. Re:It's already happened, sort of by m.o · · Score: 1

      Exactly. I could never understand why the same thing didn't happen in Silicon Valley in the '90s---there were many people who could've afforded helicopters, and they could've placed landing spots on the tops of their companies' buildings. Instead, you saw them in their Ferraris and Mercedes S600s in the daily morning traffic jams on hwy 101.

  48. Global Warming Anyone? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I guess it would be ironic when we finally achieve sustainable (from an energy point of view) ground transportation, that we will desire to go to the air which will definately be not sustainable for a while longer. Since I live in California, I'll use the following examples. People already live in the Central Valley and commute to San Jose (60 miles). I mean do we really need to live in Lake Tahoe and commute to San Jose (230 miles)? I've never really understood people who insist they must commute over an hour a day. This will just make the distance longer and the total energy consumed per commute much greater while keeping convience constant. I mean it's one thing to go and visit someone, but another for every day transportation. Don't get me wrong, it would be uber cool to fly around and not have traffic and get places faster, but at what expense?

  49. Has he tried to fly one? by Marvel+Man · · Score: 1

    I doubt it. They are alot harder than cars to operate. NOT easier. IIRC, there are even videos on how to operate them on howstuffworks.com

  50. Re:Affordable personal flight is still just a drea by RNLockwood · · Score: 2, Interesting

    You are absolutely correct but left out a few items.

    1. The FAA also mandates inspections by FAA certified aircraft mechanics each year at the maximum or after so many hours of flight. If you miss an inspection the aircraft is forbidden to fly as it is not airworthy. The inspections can take some time and any defects found must be corrected before the craft can fly. A Piper Navajo inspection costs upwards of $2,500 and the aircraft may be out of service for some time. A side effect of this requirement, if there is to be a people's aircraft is that LOTS of certified aircraft mechanics would be required.
    2. Detailed logs must be kept of each flight, each repair, and each add-on. If the logs are not correct, spanning the whole life of the aircraft, it is not airworthy.
    3. The manufacturer and FAA provide notices of problems that sometimes require inspections, repairs, and replacement. The repairs must be complied with. You are not allowed to fly around with defects.
    4. Avionics are expensive to purchase, install, and maintain. The last time I checked three or four years ago a collision avoidance system cost $25,000. This would tend to put the price of the aircraft out of reach of most folks.
    5. It's hard to imagine a failsafe aircraft so I suppose some training including simulator training and certification will be required - probably with some sort of yearly medical inspection. If there is a problem and the aircraft needs to be auto-rotated it still has to be guided to a safe landing.

    All in all, I think that the typical person is not well suited to this degree of complexity, care, and expense and it won't happen any time soon.

    --
    Nate
  51. The title said almost it... by WetCat · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The coming Air Rage
    Seriously, it's not so hard to make automated systems for collision avoidance. Much harder is to create pollution-free and cheap fuel engines (fuel cells? cold fusion?).
    Much much harder to resolve all the landscape and noise issues. Near Washington DC even small helicopter pad to which 6 or 7 helicopters expected to be landed created a lot of rage and crying from residents. Result is that that pad has never been built. And I think it's good.

  52. A frigging mess by A+non+moose+cow · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Personal aircraft will never be mainstream until they can reliably fly themselves from point 'a' to point 'b' without direct control from the passengers. If you give people control, it would be a horrible problem.

    Think of all the times people break out of the confines of traffic when the opportunity presents itself. How many times have you seen people drive up an embankment to get from a slow freeway to the feeder road? How could you possibly police all of the guaranteed violations of this type? This assumes that there is some form of infrastructure to create 'sky lanes' for people to stay in. What kind of mess would there be without some form of organized lanes?

    What about parking lots? How would you like to navigate the chaos of a parking lot in 3D? Would you find people in some sort of holding pattern over Woolworths so that they could make a mad dash for the "good spot" when someone takes off? Imagine an early morning commute where people do not trickle into a parking area because traffic lights limit their access, and lanes do not keep them in single file. If everyone decides to leave home at 'the perfect time' because they know exactly how long it takes them to fly to the office, then everyone who needs to be at work at 8:am will get to the parking lot at essentially the same time.

    What about the noise? When was the last time you heard a quiet aircraft? I can hear a single traffic helicopter approaching from a mile away when I am in my car. Think of the decibels generated by a freeway of such noisemakers.

    What about the fuel efficiency? these things have to maintain flight even at standstill. Ground vehicles do not have to expend energy to counteract gravity unless they are moving uphill. By the time automated personal flying vehicles become practical (by not allowing the occupants to break traffic laws), how efficient will ground vehicles be?

    I am rarely a naysayer of future ideas, but this idea has so many impracticalities that I find it to be a no-brainer. It will be nothing more then the folley of idiots for a very long time to come.

    The general public is too stupid to manuver safely in 3D.

  53. Re:Affordable personal flight is still just a drea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Turbines are much more efficient than internal combustion engines. In a typical four stroke engine, there are four up and down motions for one power stroke, versus the one motion of a turbine. Now, if you replace inefficient with expensive, that statement makes more sense.

  54. Ah, how quickly the young forget by dnight · · Score: 1, Offtopic

    Personal flight has been around since the sixties, you just had to eat some sugar cubes and flap your arms.

    Ask Timothy Leary, he's still up there somewhere.

  55. Flight will eventually happen by Chairboy · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I've read a bunch of threads from people who talk about how dangerous it will be to have so many people flying around, and I am reminded of how when cars first appeared, they would be escorted in town by sentries waving red flags because it was thought that the cars would be so inherently dangerous.

    1. Re:Flight will eventually happen by Feanturi · · Score: 1

      I've read a bunch of threads from people who talk about how dangerous it will be to have so many people flying around, and I am reminded of how when cars first appeared, they would be escorted in town by sentries waving red flags because it was thought that the cars would be so inherently dangerous.

      They were, and still are. People drive them, you see, and that's the downfall of it all. Horses were less convenient, but much better at getting around safely than their human dependants. The reaction was not unreasonable, and should perhaps have persisted. We might have some valuable people still alive today.

    2. Re:Flight will eventually happen by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't traffic accidents every year kill like more Americans than died in Vietnam?

      Thought I read that somewhere.

      Face it. Anything over about 10 miles an hour and you're taking your life and the lives of others into your hands. Really want that bozo who zipped by you going 90, weaving in and out of lanes, to be *flying*? If he goes out of control on the highway, he might kill himself or at most one or two carloads of people. If he goes out of control in an helicopter or other flyer, he could hit an office building or a house or crowded street.

      No thanks. A silly idea.

  56. CYCLOGIRO - The helicopter of the future by Caractacus+Potts · · Score: 3, Informative

    The currently designed helicopter will not be the flying car of the future. As master Yoda would say "No, there is another". Meet the cyclogiro, our Navy's latest secret weapon, and one of Russia's finest inventions. ;) They operate on the concept of cycloidal propulsion (see Google), which is mechanically complicated but more efficient and quiter than conventional designs.

  57. Yeah... that's what we need.. by FlexOutlaw · · Score: 1

    People seem to be pretty optimistic about the average persons ability to operate their means of transportation. Half the idiots out there can barely drive a car, and we want to toss them into a personal aircraft? The only way this could be good would be if enough of them would crash and burn that we could evolve into a race of decent drivers.

    1. Re:Yeah... that's what we need.. by mtec · · Score: 1

      The only way this could be good would be if enough of them would crash and burn that we could evolve into a race of decent drivers.

      Huh! a Darwin Helix-Copter!

      --
      Cake or Death? Cake Please!
  58. The cost of personal freedom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The freedom of transport, the modern american dream. Why is it every body wants a faster way to get from home to work and back, what ever the cost. Most of the messages on here talk about how people wont fly to work because many will die, the strange thing is people die from driving all the time, more people have died in the last year from car accidents in america then from 911 by a factor of around 30 times. http://www.nsc.org/library/rept2000.htm Are all battles for freedom worth winning, maybe the freedom of getting to work in your own bike, car, helicopter may not be worth it. Helicopters would eat gas that make a big fat suv look like a model at a diet conference. Save a Life take a bus.

    Paul the archmage

  59. They would need "horse sense" or better by ScottBob · · Score: 2

    A number of people think personal helicopters and air cars would be easier for humans to fly if they had autopilots to take care of pitch, yaw, etc., and a sort of collision avoidance system, therefore giving the aircraft some sort of "horse sense".

    But the horse sense would have to be good enough to avoid ground objects too, such as trees, buildings, power lines, radio towers and the ubiquitous cell phone network antennas. But more importantly, they would need a law abiding horse sense that would automatically avoid no-fly zones such as over nuke plants, refineries, prisons (imagine a sky car aided prison break), or anywhere else you have to stop at a guard shack before going inside.

    But I want my back yard to be a no-fly zone, too. I don't want someone to land in my back yard and steal my gas grill. And I'm sure businesses with fenced in outdoor storage wouldn't want to be descended upon by flying thieves, either. This would require designated landing lots and air car guidance systems that will only land at other designated landing lots. They needn't be all that big, in fact existing parking lots would do nicely. My street has maybe 30 houses, and maybe about 60 cars. They could land a flying car in the parking lot of the local gas station, gas up, then drive it the rest of the way home on the street. That way cities will not have to be planned around them. Until these requirements are met, I don't think there will ever be sky cars.

  60. The public isn't very smart... by mtec · · Score: 1

    while 3d flight is neat,
    most people barely learn to master,
    'shampoo - wash - repeat'

    --
    Cake or Death? Cake Please!
  61. Yeah, don't forget the oil change on a helicopter by The_Dougster · · Score: 1

    If you run your car out of oil you just cruise to a stop and call a towtruck with your cell phone. Its a little more extreme when your helicopter engine seizes up.

    --
    Clickety Click ...
  62. Heat isn't exactly a force... by The_Dougster · · Score: 2, Informative

    But there really is no negative heat. You can have less heat or less gravity, but once you are at zero thats about it as far as anybody knows.

    Mass, at least is equivalent to inductance, so gravity can cause an object to oscillate. Heat doesn't even have that. Heat will flow from warmer to cooler places, but thats about it.

    --
    Clickety Click ...
  63. Re:Flash FXP2.X is a Trojan,DeWeese a Phed. WATCH by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    you are one pathetic little puppy.
    go to all websites and post exactly same lie.
    i will not even dignity by discussing every single lie you posted here.
    it's been proven beyond anybody's (well, except yours) doubt by professional crackers that flashfxp doesn't do anything bad.

  64. Affordable flight exists, if you aren't greedy by FreeUser · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As a pilot I can tell you, affordable flight already exists. Expensive, yes, but no more expensive than a nice car. IF, of course, you are willing to shop, buy used, and don't require 'sexiness' in your aircraft.

    A two seater Cessna 150 or 152 in good condition goes for about $20k, and will generally do 95-100 knots TAS and burns about 7 gallons per hour.

    A Beech Sundowner (my personal choice) will hold 3 adults plus fuel, has a range of six hours (more than most people's bladders), does about 105-110 knots, goes for around $40,000 and burns 8-9 gallons / hour.

    Annuals typically run $1,000-$2,000, fuel typically costs $2.50/gallon. Insurance is typically $800/year or so (post 9/11), less if you get your instrument rating.

    1. The FAA also mandates inspections by FAA certified aircraft mechanics each year at the maximum or after so many hours of flight.

    Part 91 (personal aircraft) only requires an annual. Commercial air carriers must submit to more rigorous inspections, such as 100 hour inspections, etc.

    If you miss an inspection the aircraft is forbidden to fly as it is not airworthy.

    In Germany, if your car misses its biannual inspection, it is illegal to drive.

    The inspections can take some time and any defects found must be corrected before the craft can fly.

    Some defects which affect air worthiness must be fixed. Others, which may be a good idea for safety but are not required to insure air worthiness you can either fix or put off. A wise pilot chooses to fix such things, but there are those who do not. Part of getting an annual done is discussing and working out with your mechanic what should be fixed now, and what makes more sense to put off.

    A Piper Navajo inspection costs upwards of $2,500 and the aircraft may be out of service for some time.

    As for time, annuals typically don't last more than a week or two, unless something is seriously wrong or a part is backordered.

    Which is what happened to a colleague of mine ... whose mechanic has had his car for over a month. I've never been without my airplane for a month.

    2. Detailed logs must be kept of each flight, each repair, and each add-on. If the logs are not correct, spanning the whole life of the aircraft, it is not airworthy.

    Not true. First, you are confusing pilot logs (logs of each flight, kept by and for the pilot in their own log book) with aircraft logs, of which there are two: airframe logs and engine logs.

    Second, the only thing that has to be certified is that the aircraft is currently airworthy, i.e. a certified aircraft mechanic has performed an annual within the last twelve months and signed off that the aircraft is airworthy. If logs are missing that is irrelevant, so long as the log showing the most recent annual is intact. Missing logs will decrease the value of the plane, they will not affect its air worthiness unless you've had the bad luck to lose the log book containing the most recent annual.

    3. The manufacturer and FAA provide notices of problems that sometimes require inspections, repairs, and replacement. The repairs must be complied with. You are not allowed to fly around with defects.

    If you are part 91, most ADs are to be complied with at the next annual. Commercial aircraft have more stringent requirements, of course. If an AD does require immediate inspection and repair (it happens, but is rare), that is akin to an automobile recall.

    4. Avionics are expensive to purchase, install, and maintain. The last time I checked three or four years ago a collision avoidance system cost $25,000. This would tend to put the price of the aircraft out of reach of most folks.

    Avionics are vastly overpriced. But most private planes do not have collision avoidance systems, moving map GPSes (Garmin 540 goes for about $14k installed). Most have the basic radio stack and navigational instruments, which are included in the prices I mentioned before. But yes, if you are feeling greedy for the latest fancy equipment it will cost you dearly, as will the latest, faster aircraft. So don't be greedy, fly an older, reliable, less sexy aircraft instead.

    All in all, I think that the typical person is not well suited to this degree of complexity, care, and expense and it won't happen any time soon.

    Agreed. However, the Germans don't just let anyone drive. A drivers license typically requires about $2,000 for the training and a fairly rigorous exam. Not as rigorous as a pilot exam and checkride by any stretch, but far more rigorous than the silly tests we in America take.

    However, if everyone were given rigorous flying lessons in high school (as we are drivers ed) and the prerequisites to becoming a private or instrument rated pilot remained as they are (fairly rigorous), I think the majority of people could become very competent pilots. Not every idiot, as we have with cars, but perhaps as many as 70-80%.

    Of course, the skies would be vastly more crowded, and that would present its own set of problems. Those issues are being addressed (smart autopilots, vastly better navigation and guidance equipment, etc.), but alas, that will be expensive.

    However, if someone wishes to become a competent pilot and fly today, in America at least it can be done on a budget, if you are careful and willing to forego the latest, sexiest toys in favor of used hand-me-downs.

    --
    The Future of Human Evolution: Autonomy
    1. Re:Affordable flight exists, if you aren't greedy by RNLockwood · · Score: 1

      Thanks for your response. I manage a aircraft used for research about wildfire and in the last two years have had ADs that required inspection within 30 to 50 hours. We just got a notice from Piper that requires maintenance and replacement of part of the elevator assembly - $5,000. I received one a few weeks ago that required engine replacement - but fortunately not for my engines' serial numbers. Aircraft are much more expensive to operate than boats and I thought they were bad!

      My point is that there is a lot of detail and paperwork required in aircraft ownership and most people just are not up to it. You can't treat an aircraft like an automobile.

      --
      Nate
  65. Why this didn't happen by ShooterNeo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why didn't this happen?

    1. No matter how much automation is used to reduce manufacturing costs, air transport would use far more real resources than cars currently do. I mean more fuel, more materials, higher grade parts....everything would have been more expensive.

    2. Lets face the truth here. As a whole, the human race isn't really that smart. The average individual makes countless poor and irresponsible decisions, gets stuck in stupid patterns and addictions, stops learning most new things past a certain age...(the list continues) I'd also say that most slashdotters (myself included) fall into part of this category. I know I've made plenty of dumb mistakes, even when I was aware that I was doing so.

    There are simply not enough individuals in society capable of safely piloting these vehicles to put them into common use. There are not enough responsible mechanics who could keep fleets of these things running safely. Its not a lack of education : I'm saying we couldn't really find enough people to run this system who would be responsible enough.

    3. The current system of cars for (relatively) short distances and planes for long distance does work. While many complain of long commutes, citizens do make it to work...the system functions. It would take considerable investment to build a short distance air transport system that was really significantly better than the compromise in use today.

    How can this be built in the future?

    By removing the human from much of it. At some point (it may require computers "Turing capable") it should be practical to build computer controlled flying vehicles where the human may lack even manual overrides.

    To ease the maintainence problem, the flying machines moving parts would all be embedded with arrays of diagonostic sensors and the vehicle would refuse to start if a fault were detected. Any monkey of a mechanic could hopefully then swap out the faulty component, safely repairing the vehicle.

  66. Not in a post 9-11 society by stuartkahler · · Score: 1

    Nowadays you need to undergo background checks to get a pilots license. Even if they became cheap enough to compete with cars, you would have to contend with the possibility of nitwits crashing them into homes, or loading them up with explosives and piloting them into prominent buildings.

    Besides, the only feasible way to do this would be if you could file a flight plan (go to X) and let an onboard computer do all of the piloting. But we haven't even been able to get cars to market that can navigate just the highways reliably, never mind local streets.

    Automobiles are quite effective for local traffic. We need a better system for long trips. It seems like every other (small) developed country in the world has trains that run at 150 mph, but we are still stuck with Amtrack that averages just as slow as driving.

  67. Futurists are not Prophets. by rusty0101 · · Score: 2

    A Futurist's job, in almost all cases is to take a look at what is going on today, compare it to what has gone on before, and suggest trends that are likely to continue into the future. They are fully ready to recognize that what they suggest may not come to pass.

    As an example, a Futurist would look at sales in computers of various types, and observe that desktop sales are flat or decreasing, laptop sales are increasing slowly, and servers are relatively flat, with perhaps a slight increase in a few areas. Said Futurist would then look at why those figures are happening, and perhaps note that laptops today are far more powerful than the best desktops of five years ago, businesses are buying servers because they need to increase capacity. Desktop (tower/mini-tower) systems draw too much power, have more power than most are ever used for, and still cost more than they are worth to most people. Based upon those observations, a Futurist might suggest that "desktops" are going to be religated to two people, those who stress their machines, (gamers and hobbiests) Laptop sales will increase, and get less expensive. And Servers are going to become more flexible, with dynamic increases in capacity and power becoming selling points.

    As most will probably point out, none of the above seems to be particularly rocket science. Any good economics student could probably make the same analysis, and provide the same report. It is not Prophecy and so on.

    Do Futurists get things wrong? Are we wearing paper clothing as Alvin Tofler predicted in Future Shock? Yes, Futurists get things wrong. Though the paper clothing statement is probably a lot closer to reality than most people think. It is not unususal to find clothing made out of recycled materials. I have seen shoes and jackets that have been made out of recycled softdrink bottles. While I do not know where to get them myself, there are booties worn over shoes in some environments (hospitals for the most part) that are made of paper. Specifically because they are created and destroyed, and when destroyed take any biological hazards with them rather than putting them in the ocean and on our beaches.

    So while I am not aware of any high fashion shows presenting paper clothing, I do think that the Toflers got it at least partially right.

    At the other end of the "prediction" group are the people who make their predictions about your life based upon how you are reacting to them. I understand the money can be good, though there are occasional hazzards to be navigated.

    Futurists are neither soothsayers, nor doom sayers. They are researchers and analysts. Generally they are not afraid of making some bold statements about the future. They will coach those statements with "I could be wrong" or other qualifiers. And when they are wrong, if asked they should generally be ready to point out that they considered it to be a reasonable probability.

    Any business that hires a futurist probably is looking for the trends they should try to move into, rather than a specific product to start promoting. Once they have reason to believe a trend is likely, they can start making strategic and subsequently tactical decisions on how to participate, or avoid that trend.

    With the earlier analysis, Zookd Computers, Inc. _may_ decide that making inexpensive (to produce) laptops will be likely to return a much larger profit over the long term than trying to sell top of the line traditional workstations. And while they will continue to make some of the traditional workstations, providing some very good platforms will tend to promote their hLnb laptop line as a reasonable replacement for standard desktops. Not to mention they work really well with their extreamly popular hOnc Mp3 player.

    Fencehole Computers will look at what Zookd Computers is doing, and pick one product and make a similar computer with a significantly poorer feature set, and try to sell them for just about the same price that Zookd is selling their hLzb desktop units for.

    Lled will look at Fencehole and just shake their head as they come out with more powerful servers, and reasonable laptops, and find some anoying kid to hawk them on every channel they can buy ad space from.

    Then again maybe I am just reading too much into the earlier analysis.

    -Rusty

    --
    You never know...
  68. Trailing throttle oversteer by Gerry+Gleason · · Score: 2
    Not exactly, but the turbo effect probably contributes to the problem. If you come into a turn too fast, or even just right, and you back off the throttle (the trailing part) the reduced power, or worse engine breaking transfers the weight forward which increases the traction of the front wheels and reduces it in the back. Any rear engine car has a lot of weight in the back, so the back end will break lose very easily, and it will come around very fast. With practice, you can feather the throttle off until the back end hangs out a little, then put the throttle back down. This transfers the weight back again and also has the drive wheels pointing into the corner which helps too. For driving fast, understeer is harder to deal with because the car just won't turn and pushes to the outside of the corner, so race drivers like to be able to get a little oversteer when they need it, so they like the way this works, particularly for a car with plenty of power.

    I don't know about the stability control, but I know the lengthened the 911 wheelbase by moving the rear wheels back a little at some point (in the '80s, I think). It's really an amazing design considering the longevity.

  69. Hmm, maybe by Phoenix666 · · Score: 1

    There are a lot of idiots who can't drive in 2D, much less 3D, and the thought of them falling flaming from the sky isn't the cheeriest idea, but at the same time I'm reminded that they said the same thing about cars back at the turn of the century. They also said that about flying in planes as passengers. So I wonder how much of the trepidation is due to reasonable fears of chaos and how much is simply because we're not used to it.

    Personally, I would love to have a rocket belt or even one of those sky-cars (Moller?). Beats taking the subway.

    --
    Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.
  70. Cars must improve first by SlimFastForYou · · Score: 1

    From time to time, I have read about experimental cars which kinda drive themselves. We need to perfect a technology which can drive safely and (practically) flawlessly on the ground in automobiles. While aerospace startups are making SkyCar (or whatever else it might be called), GMC, Ford, Dodge, Toyota, or whoever should be developing a way to make cars drive completely by themselves. I'm sure it is possible. Many have questions and or worries about the mechanical (technological) aspect. I think technology (as in fueling systems) should come along just fine. Humans seem to be the weak point, and since not every rich person should fly manually (insert airhead with cellphone imagery), we need computers to be able to handle everything from takeoff to landing.

    1. Re:Cars must improve first by mbstone · · Score: 1

      We won't get cars that drive themselves, not in our lifetimes. Reason: You wouldn't need 90% of cops.

  71. Re:ah, /., home of morons - how prophetic! by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    To point this out more clearly than the previous post, you had a fatal miscalculation that totally blew an otherwise intelligent piece of work - if you simply divide 65 by 12 (worst case gas milage for the Yukon) you find that in fact the Yukon consumed only around 5 1/2 gallons of fuel, not 15!!!

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  72. Um, can you say September 11? by emarkp · · Score: 1
    You may remember an event 13 months ago that will guarantee no personal-flight vehicles for a long time.

    And that's probably a good thing.

    1. Re:Um, can you say September 11? by Chicane-UK · · Score: 1

      I dont mean this as any direspect for those that lost friends or family on Sept 11th.. but that is a stupid comment to make.

      What kind of damage do you think someone would achieve by crashing a Microlyte or single seater aircraft into the side of a building? I think it would be more like the effect of a bug hitting your windscreen at 50mph - bounce or splat! Its not like everyone will be out flying 747's or huge carrier helicopters.

      Sheesh.

      --
      "Hey! Unless this is a nude love-in, get the hell off my property!!"
    2. Re:Um, can you say September 11? by emarkp · · Score: 1
      The point isn't that there will be another jet crashing into a building. The point is that a plane can go pretty much anywhere. If anyone could fly a vehicle around, then any window or roof is a potential target (whether intentional or accidental).

      Furthermore, a small yield nuclear device could fit easily in a small plane (not an ultralight though). Then you could deliver the device anywhere. That's one of the unfortunate lessons of 9/11/2001.

    3. Re:Um, can you say September 11? by JimPooley · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      Twat! Terrorists can steal a panel van, stuff it with high explosives, and park it next to a building, and do a whole shitload more damage than any light aircraft could ever do... Ask the IRA.

      Fuckwits like you are killing general aviation.

      --

      "Information wants to be paid"
  73. It's Closer than you think by egommer · · Score: 2, Informative

    Carter Copters has been working feverishly for several years now on a vertitcal take off and landing aircraft. That combines the traits of helicopters and fixed wing aircraft with GryoCopters.

    The specs are pretty impressive. Coast to Coast on 1 tank of gas. 450mph cruise speed at over 35,000 feet, Zero Roll take off and short field landing. 5 Passengers. Plus luggage.

    Here are some pics and vids. They had a good demo at the OSHKOSH Air Show

    --
    Two Towers-Two Worlds.One seeks triumphs and freedom for man.The other deems man unworthy and wrecks them.
  74. Bad choice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I would pick the helicopter 90% of the time.

    The Cessna makes contact with the ground at 100km/hr for its landing run. A helicopter can flare to 0km/hr landing speed.

    So the helicopter is going to be able to land on a road or in a parking lot while the Cessna is gliding around looking for a long straight stretch that probably won't exist.

    I personally choose to fly a gyroplane, which is in permanent autorotation.

  75. Personal VTOL: The Moller Skycar by hackshack · · Score: 2, Informative

    Of all the "personal flight" ideas out there, the Moller skycar seems to have the most potential. I heard the designer, Paul Moller, being interviewed on Coast to Coast AM recently, and was captivated. Looking at the design, it seems very "car-like," with no exposed rotor edges or wings; it basically looks like a car with small jet engines instead of wheels. During the interview, the designer made a big point of explaining the integral safety systems: each turbojet is actually two turbojets, so if one fails the other takes over; there are three separate computers on board (one primary, two backups), etc. It runs on regular gasoline, gets mileage comparable to a car (over 25mpg), is quiet (85dB @ 50 feet, and they're working to reduce it further), and most importantly, is a VTOL (vertical take off and landing) craft. They've been developing this for the last few decades (check their design history on the site) and are working with the FAA to obtain "powered lift" certification for the Skycar- on the interview I remember one of his points was that getting a license for the Skycar should be easier than getting a driver's license.

    1. Re:Personal VTOL: The Moller Skycar by Overzeetop · · Score: 2

      "getting a license for the Skycar should be easier than getting a driver's license."

      Now that scares me. Getting a driver's license is too easy to do as it is. I'm not talking the law portion (thoug that could be a bit more comprehensive, too). I'm talking about the practical. In most states, the practical exam is a joke, and centers around whether or not you can use your turn signals and stop at a stop sign. My wife can't even parallel park 'cause she was never required to learn (Virginia).

      I've kept up with the progress of Moller casually for a decade or so. It's terribly enticing...last stats I heard were 17mpg (airspeed*time, not linear miles; a thirty knot headwind will increase your fuel consumption for a given ground distance) which is no worse then most SUVs. They utilize Wankel ("von-kel") engines as they have extremely high power to weight ratios. A 350mph cruising speed is quite nice, too.

      BUT...right now, the noise and pollution is concentrated around roads. If you don't like to live near that, you can move to the country. What happens when there are 200 million of these in service? The moller website claims that the density would be less than 1 car per cubic mile (or somthing like that). Well, on a clear day, I can look out my window and see for thirty miles or more in each direction, and at lease 5 to 7 miles vertically. That's over two thousand vehicles within sight of my house. Not a prospect I look forward to. Luckily, with a pricetag of $600k, there won't be too many folks buying them.

      --
      Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
  76. wildly wrong? by Shanep · · Score: 2

    "see and use hundreds of short-run helicopter bus services."

    There have been short run helicopter services in US cities which used heli pads on top of city buildings.

    He goes on to write about personal helicopters which fit in large garages and that helicopters that are easier to drive than cars, etc..

    There are cheap helicopters that are built with small budget in mind which are marketed towards individuals and give good milage.

    Lamborghini made a VERY small heli which only holds one man (very snuggly). Robinson R22's are really cheap too.

    I've flown an R22. Starting it up sounds like starting up a lawnmower.

    Helicopters as easy to pilot as cars? OK, now that is wildly wrong. : )

    --
    War crimes, torture, lies, illegal spying... Would someone give Bush a blowjob, already, so he can be impeached?
  77. The physics are right here... by RayBender · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Remember that the kinetic energy involved in flying is a lot greater than for most cars; even a Cessna is doing 150-200 mph, while few cars are doing that during the morning commute. That makes any collision much more dangerous, be it with the ground or with other planes/cars. I suspect that death/injury rates are similar for general aviation and racing cars, since the speeds are similar.

    So if we ever see widspread personal flying, I wouldn't be surprised if it was using some form of ultra-light, with speeds in the 50-100 mph range.

    As for personal helicopters - the things are hell to maintain. I know people who think getting a tune-up at 100,000 miles is a pain. Imagine trying to fly a chopper for ten years with no maintenance...

    --
    Human genome = 3 billion base pairs = 6 GBit. Windows + Office = 20 Gbit. Which is more impressive?
  78. The end of drive through?! by EvilStein · · Score: 2

    How the hell am I going to fit a helicopter through a Taco Bell drive up window at 2am?! I have enough trouble getting my CAR through one sometimes. :P

  79. Re: Cocksmokers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yeah! Cocksmokers!

  80. In short by bitspotter · · Score: 2, Interesting

    When a car breaks, you coast to a stop.
    When an aircaft breaks, you drop to one.

  81. Re:Affordable personal flight is still just a drea by kcbrown · · Score: 2, Informative
    Turbines are much more efficient than internal combustion engines. In a typical four stroke engine, there are four up and down motions for one power stroke, versus the one motion of a turbine. Now, if you replace inefficient with expensive, that statement makes more sense.

    But internal combustion engines are much more efficient at trapping the expanding combustion gases and converting them to work. Turbines lose a lot of efficiency in the conversion of energy to mechanical work.

    The difference isn't nearly as bad as it used to be, but turbines still aren't as efficient. They are much more reliable, however, so their overall cost of operation is less when scaled to suit airliner size aircraft.

    Here's proof. One airframe design that has two variants, a piston-powered variant and a turbine-powered variant, is the Piper Malibu. The Mirage is piston powered and the Malibu is turbine powered. Here are the relevant specs:

    Piper Malibu Mirage:

    • Engine: Lycoming TIO-540-AE2A 6-cylinder piston
    • Fuel burn: 18gal/hr
    • Useful load 1500lb
    • Max gross weight: 4300lb
    • Cruise: 213kt at 25,000ft

    Piper Meridian:

    • Engine: Pratt & Whitney PT6A-42A
    • Fuel burn: 37gal/hr
    • Useful load: 1500lb
    • Max gross weight: 4900lb
    • Cruise speed: 262kt at 30,000ft (240kt at 25,000ft)

    Now, the power requirements due to air resistance vary by the cube of the speed, and the fuel burn varies directly with the amount of power used. So at 25,000 feet, the Meridian is using 1.44 times the amount of power that the Mirage is using. But if the specific fuel consumptions were the same, then the turbine would burn 1.44 times the amount of fuel, or 26 gal/hr. But it burns 37. And even if the fuel burn were the same, kerosene has a higher energy content than gasoline. So the turbine is less efficient.

    Another way to prove it is through the specific fuel consumption values. A piston engine uses about 0.45 lb/hp per hour. The PT6 uses 0.53 lb/hp per hour. So the PT6 burns more fuel, from a source that has more energy.

    Oh, yeah: and the turbine is a lot more expensive. But that probably has more to do with General Electric's monopoly (or so I've heard) on the processes used to produce the fan blades than anything else.

    --
    Use 'slashdot stuff' in the subject line in any email you send me if you want to get past the spam filter.
  82. Re:Flash FXP2.X is a Trojan,DeWeese a Phed. WATCH by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You are one seriously deranged wretched pile of vomit. You have eructated forth a vile pile of unsubstantiated crap. You meant to say, "dignify," I shouldn't even dignify your post as worthy of spelling and grammar correction. Without the source code to the program and any libraries it links to its useless to try and refute any of if. You FlashFXP zealots say sniff the packets, but they are encrypted, fucker.

  83. You want flying cars? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You got it: moller.com.

  84. Avionics pricing... by anonymous+cupboard · · Score: 2
    The old discrete analogue avionics (say VOR Navs, etc) were very complicated and a bitch to maintain. Newer digital devices are a lot cheaper to build (even VOR, let alone GPS) and a cinch to maintain. Regrettably the lower costs are not always reflected in prices.

    Mass-produced avionics would lead to further price reductions. Avionics pricing should certainly not be an issue. Incidetally, the reliability issue could be solved Airbus style with functionally identical technology produced by different hardware/software teams.

  85. Re:Affordable personal flight is still just a drea by anonymous+cupboard · · Score: 2
    ,blockquote>Oh, yeah: and the turbine is a lot more expensive. But that probably has more to do with General Electric's monopoly (or so I've heard) on the processes used to produce the fan blades than anything else.

    Um, last I heard Rolls-Royce do a nice line in turbo-props (and they have a lot of patents themselves) but mostly for slightly larger aircraft (medium range commuter). I guess they would certainly come up with something if they saw a market.

  86. Noise problems by vaguelyamused · · Score: 2, Interesting

    One big issue I see with personal aircraft, particularly helicopters is noise. If your neighbor staring his uber-carbuerated muscle car at 6:30am is bad, just wait until he fires up the chopper. Freeway noise can carry for miles yet the indivual cars aren't particularly loud. Helicopters are very loud and clouds of them over cities would be deafening.

    --
    STOP ROCK VIDEO
  87. There ARE lanes in the sky... by benny_lama · · Score: 1

    The simple fact is that there ARE lanes in the air. They are defined by paths between radio navigation stations (VOR or VHF Omni-directional Ranging) or using a GPS. The pilot knows their location in relation to the airway with an indicator that tells them on which side of the airway they are on. Traffic in opposite directions is separated using altitude. Eastbound traffic (headings 001 - 179) fly at odd numbered altitudes and westbound traffic (180-360) flys at even numbered altitudes.

    --
    "No Comm, No Bomb"
  88. It's like my mother sais. by guybarr · · Score: 1, Offtopic


    We're lucky cows can't fly.

    --
    Working for necessity's mother.
  89. Re:Flash FXP2.X is a Trojan,DeWeese a Phed. WATCH by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Damn... Slashdot is getting worse each day, with pathetic articles like this.

    Learn to think before writing shit like this, looser.

  90. Air Age? Air Sign? by CYberPhreak · · Score: 1

    This is the dawning of the age of aquarius...

    Sorry, I had to say it, because apparently noone else saw it.

    --

    Buy the ticket, take the ride.

  91. What About the Dirigible by donweel · · Score: 1

    Much safer and easier to fly than a chopper. You shouldn't need one too big to lift 4 people. Mid air collision with another deribible would probable just bounce. Wind would be a restriction I suppose, but with good streamlining and powerful motors should work well enough.

    --
    Many a long talk since then I have had with the man in the moon; he had my confidence on the voyage. Joshua Slocum
  92. Air RAGE by gelfling · · Score: 2

    That sez it all. Stressed out soccer mom yakking on the phone, swatting at her ADHD babbling kids who are fighting, while the family Ford Erection SUC (sport utility copter) jamms in traffic.

    Somebody carooms out of the KFC flyby w/o looking on a right bank.

    BOOM.

    Traffic gets all honked up. Tempers flare. The rockets red glare. Dozens die film at a 11.

  93. The problem is safety by Synn · · Score: 2

    I've skydived and looked into other air sports, hanggliding, paragliding and so on. They're all dangerous sports simply because they involve flight.

    25-35% of all skydiving fatalities are landing errors. When you have an accident in a land vehicle you're horizontal to the ground and you generally "bleed off" speed unless you slam into an immovable object. Wipe out on a motorcycle and you skid along the ground and get road rash.

    With air vehicles accidents involve slamming vertically into the ground, you have nowhere to bleed off the energy of the accident so the injuries are often leathal.

    Flying is sort of like driving a car or riding a motorcycle, except every accident involves hitting a concrete wall.

    You also have other random factors like turbulance and wind conditions you don't have to deal with on the ground.

    It takes lots of training and a constant use of safety procedures to fly safely(and even then it's more dangerous than driving a car).

    Until we have computers that can totally automate the flight, I don't see it happening for the average driver. It's too intolerant to errors.

  94. Borders & Personal Air Flight by MercTech · · Score: 1

    What bureaucratic government anywhere would allow a population access to unrestricted travel? Horror of horrors, the people might find out that the enemy over the border wants the same thing they do, to be left alone by their government. Or, even more horrible, goods and services might be traded across the border without the government poking their nose and greedy fingers into the transaction.

    Personal air travel seems to have been legislated to near non-existence in most "civilized" areas of the world no matter the engineering viability.

    --
    NRRPT/RCT
  95. Mars Pathfinder, NOT Nissan Pathfinder by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    What about Pathfinder-style airbags?

    Why is this "off-topic"? Copter fails, airbags pop-out and cushions landing. Whether it is technically feasible or not does NOT make it "off topic".

    Perhaps you thot I meant Nissan Pathfinder, rather than Mars Pathfinder?

    1. Re:Mars Pathfinder, NOT Nissan Pathfinder by littlerubberfeet · · Score: 2

      I agree. these type of airbags should be looked at more closely for flying vehicles. Also, the manually deployed vehicle parachutes for ultralights could be used.

      --
      Sig (appended to the end of comments you post, 120 chars)
  96. Futurist sites by t_allardyce · · Score: 1

    Has anyone found any more sites with past future-predictions? I read one in 2000 on slashdot about future predictions from 1950 but i cant find the article, or any similar things on the net. I'm mainly looking for things from the mid 1900's. Some of them are pretty interesting, and even the bad ones are a great read.

    As for helicopters, they are much harder to control than fixed-wing planes (well my only experiance is simulated). And its very easy to loose control. Back then, there was no way to make them easier to use, but now you could stick in a computer and reduce the controls to something easier than a car. Once everyone started using them then the sky would be just as crowded - dont forget, you cant stick helicopters in a traffic jam with a few feet between them, they need lots of space, and they need somewhere to land in an emergency, where? Also, the police cant try and stop them by fish-tailing or stinging, and no-one is going to agree to have police controllable remotes mandated in them.

    --
    This comment does not represent the views or opinions of the user.
  97. Re:Affordable personal flight is still just a drea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Efficient does not just mean gallons per hour. I'm talking about power-to-weight ratio, where turbines have the advantage by a large margin. Also, your example is not really fair since the Piper Meridian is uses a prop and not a jet to propel it. I think the point I was trying to make is that, pound for pound, a turbine engine is much more efficiant than an internal cumbustion engine, which is why 747s can go faster with much more weight than any prop plane. It may not be germane to personal aircraft, but this is slashdot :)

  98. Some other thoughts... by jethro200 · · Score: 1

    Here are some other issues with personal, or almost personal flight.

  99. Safe Ultralite Personal Helicopter, on sale now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You can buy a safe personal helicopter for $250,000, park it in your back yard and fly it legally without a license! the dual counter-rotating rotors mean you can even fly it with one hand (so you can still shove a burger in your mouth with the other). Popular science has the skinny: http://www.popsci.com/popsci/aviation/article/0,12 543,319699,00.html

  100. riiiiiight... by nbvb · · Score: 2

    That's the same basic concept that supposed "high availability" products like Sun Cluster & VERITAS FirstWatch (err... VCS.. sorry) use.

    And guess what? It's a damned mess.

    OK, you've got 3 machines. Two of them lose the connection to the third. Who's the master? Two of them think they're the only ones alive, so they elect a master. The guy off on his own thinks _he's_ alone, so he elects himself a master.

    Now we've got 2 masters. Oops.

    This is commonly referred to as a "split brain" situation. It's definitely a non-trivial problem to solve.

    And that's only one possible situation. There are all sorts of failures that can have nasty repercussions.

    Ick.

    --NBVB

    1. Re:riiiiiight... by anonymous+cupboard · · Score: 2
      Yes, I started a looonnnggg time ago with VMS clusters so I'm aware of this little problem (called a partitioned cluster). Thius is generally solved by a quorum which is a count on the minumum number of systems allowed to participate in the cluster.The quorum figure and the number of votes per machine can, of course, be tweaked dynamically.

      For the flight control systems it is somewhat easier as they machines are not in a cluster. They just effect their output through a checking mechanism (a simple but reliable bit of hard-wired logic) that says if 1 machine doesn't agree with the other two, it is ignored (and I believe reset, just in case).

    2. Re:riiiiiight... by nbvb · · Score: 1

      Quorum algorithms work fine, as long as the quorum device itself isn't the one to fail.

      I've used VMS clusters as a user but never as a sysadmin, so that's why I withheld comment. I figured that DEC would get it right, unlike Sun & Veritas & IBM's HA-CMP.....

      Sun Cluster is my area of expertise, and IMHO, it's a piece of junk. I get better availability numbers out of my standalone nodes than I do out of the supposed "HA" ones. The cluster framework is such a bolt-on to the OS that it induces _much_ more instability and overhead than just letting the node run by itself.....

      Just my personal opinion, of course :)

    3. Re:riiiiiight... by anonymous+cupboard · · Score: 2
      Increased complexity means increased probability of failure, unless you get things right by removing single points of failure. This takes time and the earliest versions of OpenVMS clustering had a lot of problems. However by VAX/VMS V3.1, the system seemed to go quite nicely.

      In the older days, Digital published source listings so I had a chane to see what went on. Clustering is so deeply bound within VMS that they don't ship an exec without that facility. If clustering is off, the code is still there, just disabled in a few key places.

      Clustered VMS systems still do useful things, like running financial trading systems. Bits fail and apart from a pause whilst the locks fail over, nothing gets lost and production continues.

      It is a shame some of the other cluster vendors didn't think this out. Maybe HP will now they have the source code but with their current anti-Engineer bent, I don't think so.

  101. Re:Flash FXP2.X is a Trojan,DeWeese a Phed. WATCH by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The rubish stated above is simply bullshit written most probably by a user who tried to use a stolen reg-serial for this great program, and due to anti-pirated serials measures legitimately inserted by the developer of FlashFXP, just got scared by the warnings.
    I use FlashFXP since many years ago, and never had problems. Or my private info got somewhere ,...due to the elucubrations written above.
    This program is perhaps the best when it comes to FTP clients (maybe the most rich-featured one), but it's registration scheme is heavy protected and fully legitimate!

  102. Re:Flash FXP2.X is a Trojan,DeWeese a Phed. WATCH by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hey, loser, learn to use words properly..

    You fucking loser.

    You spelled it looser. Hahahaha. Yeah, am I a Unbound; untied; unsewed; not attached, fastened, fixed, or confined; as, the loose sheets of a book?

    What a fucking loser.

  103. Re:Flash FXP2.X is a Trojan,DeWeese a Phed. WATCH by CaptSisko · · Score: 1

    1) You make a bunch of claims without providing any substantial evidence to support them. On the contrary, there is well-known proof against your arguments. Why don't you actually provide some evidence, for instance on how FFXP has technology stolen from OpenSSL? Are you actually aware of what you're saying?

    2) It is illegal to perform any of the so-called 'things FlashFXP does' you provide in your last paragraph. Perhaps you should take a few classes in law school and understand what 'evidence' collected in such a manner would hold up to in ANY court?

    3) You're actually blaming the author because *YOU* decided to run an unstable product, a RELEASE CANDIDATE? In other words, you're blaming Charles DeWeese for your own stupidity?

    And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Please don't be an anonymous coward. We already know who you are from the 'personal information' that your FlashFXP installation transmitted.

    -- Tuxedo T. PeNGuiN

    --
    -- Linux: Stays crunchy even in milk! --
  104. Why Personal Air Travel will never happen by Timex · · Score: 1

    Those of you that live in or near metro areas like Boston see why personal air travel will never be commonplace: there are just too many complete and utter idiots.

    Think about it. I live just south of Boston, but I grew up in Maine. I learned how to drive in snow, and it snows here, but to see all these people doing 80mph in a foot of snow makes me want to laugh (and cry)... These same dolts wonder why they end up in the snow bank in multiple-car pileups. <sigh>

    Please see my comments about driving in snow on H2G2.

    --
    When politicians are involved, everyone loses.
  105. "loosing" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Loosing" is a verb, but it's uncommon. It means something close to "releasing", such as loosing a mooring line for a ship. What you mean is "losing". Fwiw, it seem that Dubya wants to "loose the dogs of war".

  106. Last Post! by alpg · · Score: 1

    "Deep" is a word like "theory" or "semantic" -- it implies all sorts of
    marvelous things. It's one thing to be able to say "I've got a theory",
    quite another to say "I've got a semantic theory", but, ah, those who can
    claim "I've got a deep semantic theory", they are truly blessed.
    -- Randy Davis

    - this post brought to you by the Automated Last Post Generator...